This document provides an overview and valuation of two major Indian public sector power companies: NTPC and NHPC. It first discusses Trustline Securities Ltd, the company conducting the analysis. It then provides background on India's power sector and an overview of NTPC, including its financials and valuation using DCF. For NHPC, it discusses the company overview and indicators but does not provide a valuation. The document aims to analyze and value these two major power companies in India.
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fundamental analysis and valuation of public sector power companies
1. “Financial Analysis & Valuation of Public Sector Power
Companies
(NTPC and NHPC)”
Nitin Jaggi
PGDM-191
2. Flow Of Presentation
About Trustline Sec Ltd
Power Sector Overview
Overview Of NTPC
Valuation Of NTPC
Overview Of NHPC
Valuation Of NHPC
Conclusion
Recommendations
Learnings
3. • Trustline made a humble beginning in 1989
• Trustline has been operating for over 20 years in the Indian Financial Arena, offering
equity, currency and commodities broking services to over 100,000 clients at over 600
locations, through own branches and business partners.
• Trustlines’ vision is to be the most preferred Broking House of India
• TRUSTLINE GROUPS’ foray into the commodity, currency, and depository
• MEMBER : NSE,BSE,MCX-SX,NSDL,CDSL
: MCX, NCDEX & NMCEIL
• Group Companies
• TRUSTLINE SECURITIES LIMITED
• TRUSTLINE COMMODITIES (P) LTD
• TRUSTLINE INSURANCE BROKERS (P) LTD
• TRUSTLINE REAL ESTATES (P) LTD
• TRUSTLINE ACADEMY
Trustline Securities Ltd
4. Vision
• To provide world class investment solution in simplified form to the investing population.
• To provide the most modern technology platform so as to enable investors perform hassle free
transactions at minimum impact cost.
• To empower investors with opportunities to invest across various asset classes to benefit from
the dynamism of the market.
Mission
• To empower individual investors by providing simple investments ideas through investment
research and thus lead them to a path of wealth creation by investing in the securities market
Vision & Mission
5. 1. Equity
2. Commodity
3. Mutual fund
4. Currency
SERVICES OFFERED BY THE COMPANY
Edge over competitors
1. A vast network of offices giving it pan India presence with more than 400+ branches.
2. Vast offering of Services.
3. Real-time risk monitoring through RMS(Risk Management System) with latest
technology.
4. Experienced and highly qualified Research Analysts and Relationship Managers.
5. Latest MF News & Fund Manager views & tools to help select the right scheme.
6. Indivitual portfolio analysis and suggestions.
7. Last but not the least ,most competitive prices in every segment across the industry.
5. Insurance
6. Portfolio Management Services
7. Education(Education First, Investment Second)
7. Power Sector Overview
43%
30%
27%
Central State Private
1. Demand for electrical energy is increasing at a rate of 8 to10 per cent
annually
2. All India Capacity reached 207876 MW
3. Gross annual generation of the country was 876.89 Billion Units (BUs)
(including Bhutan import) showing a growth rate of 8.11% over last year.
4. The energy requirement during the year 2012-13 was 937.20 BUs.
5. Energy deficit on a year-on-year basis in 2012-13 at 8.5%.
6. Peak load demand, increased by 6.31% thereby increasing peak load
defi cit to 10.6% in 2012-13 from 9.8% in the previous year. (Source:
CEA)
7. During 2013-14 India’s GDP is expected to grow at 6.1% to 7%.
8. In order to sustain the growth in GDP and bring it around 9%, India needs
to add power generation capacity commensurate with this pace since
growth of power sector is strongly co-related with the growth in GDP and
going forward it is expected that supply will create further demand.
9. By FY17 demand will Cross 1403 Billion Units(CEA).
Consumption
Industrial>Residential>Agriculture>Commercial
9. Challenges Of Power Sector:
1. New Project Management and Execution.
2. Ensuring availability of fuel quantities and
qualities
3. Lack of initiative to develop large coal and
natural gas resources present in India,
4. Land acquisition
5. Environmental clearances at state and central
government level
6. Training of skilled manpower to prevent talent
shortages for operating latest technology plants.
7. Huge losses during Transmission and
Distribution.
8. Poor Financial health of state electricities boards.
9. Tariff decision highly regulated by State Gov.’s.
57.10%
9.09%0.58%
18.90%
2.30% 12.03%
Fuel Based Allocation
Coal Gas Diesel Hydro Nuclear Renewable
11. • Maharatna Company ,Incorporated as a Government company in 1975; amongst
7 Maharatna GoI companies,
• Vision
To be the world’s largest and best power producer, powering India’s growth.
• As of December 31, 2012 total installed power generation capacity of 39,674MW
whereas 17,909MW of capacity, under construction
• Accounts for 18.5% of India’s total installed capacity
• NTPC generated 220 billion units of electricity which is 27.4% of India’s total
generation in FY12.
• 11th Five Year Power Plan of addition of 9220 MW of Capacity was achieved.
• 12 th Five Year Power Plan Target of Addition of 11148 MW.
• At the 337th position in the Forbes Global 2000 list of the world’s largest
Companies for the year 2012, and 3rd in Asia among electricity utilities.
• Ranked 3rd in The Economic Times Best Employers in India 2012 Study of Best
Employers in the Country
NTPC
14. Concern
Biggest Concern for NTPC is collection period and debtors turnover ratio b’coz of
a) Poor Financial Condition of SEB’s.
b) Irregularities in payment by SEB’s.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Average Collection Period
27. NHPC
• Mini Ratna Enterprise of Govt. of India
• Incorporated in 1975 with authorised capital of Rs.200 crore, the present authorised capital
is Rs.15000 crore
• Projects Completed 15 with Total Installed Capacity of 4095 MW
• 16.65% of Total Hydro Power Generation Is Done by NHPC
• 4095MW Of Projects Under construction 30% Capacity addition In next 5 years.
• Largest Hydro Company with expertise in execution of Hydro Projects from concept to
commissioning, with 16.65% share of installed hydro-electric capacity in India and presence
across 8 states with installed capacity of 5526 MW.
• Assured income business model due to long term power purchase agreement.
• Problems Faced By NHPC are :
a) Land Acquisition
b) International and State Disputes.
c) National Calamities
d) Unexpected Complexitoes
• PLF-49%
• PAF-83%
29. Concern
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Debtors Turnover ratio
0
50
100
150
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Average Collection Period
Biggest Concern for NTPC is collection period and debtors turnover ratio b’coz of
a) Poor Financial Condition of SEB’s.
b) Irregularities in payment by SEB’s.
37. NET ASSET VALUE
Book Value 28,696.64
Market capitalization(in crore) 22141.33
Shares outstanding(in crore) 1230.07
Book Value per share 22.75
Market price per share 18
Premium/ (Discount) (26.38%)
40. Relative Valuation
S.No Company PE (x) EPS (Rs.)
Div Yield
(%)
P/BV (x) EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBIT
DA
1 Reliance Power Ltd 18.4 3.6 0 1 7.3 21
2 Tata power 61.6 1.3 1.6 2.4 1.6 9.1
3 Adani Power Ltd 0 0 0 3.6 7.4 50.8
4 JSW Energy Ltd 7.7 6.7 1 1.3 2 7
5
Jaiprakash Power Ventures
Ltd
19.8 1.1 0 1 11.1 14.4
6 Torrent Power Ltd 15.4 8.2 5.2 1 1.3 8
7
Neyveli Lignite
Corporation Ltd
7.2 8.1 4.8 0.7 2.3 6.5
AVERAGE 18.59 4.14 1.80 1.57 4.71 16.69
PRICE ON THE BASIS OF P/E RATIOPeer Group P/E Ratio - 18.59 Peer Group EBIDTA Multiple - 16.69
Per Share Price(INR) - 34.91 Per Share Price(INR) - 50.15
41. VALUATION VALUE
DCF Valuation Rs.181.2
NAV Valuation Rs.88.63
Peer Group EV/EBIDTA Valuation Rs. 247.93
Peer Group P/E Valuation Rs.200.10
VALUATION VALUE
DCF Valuation Rs.50.61
NAV Valuation Rs.22.75
Peer Group EV/EBIDTA Valuation Rs. 50.154
Peer Group P/E Valuation Rs.34.91
a) NTPC
b) NHPC
Recommendation
NTPC-BUY
NHPC-BUY
Conclusion
42. http://trustline.co.in/ http://www.trustline.in/
Recommendations
• Company has most competitive prices but is nowhere mentioned neither on there
website nor in advertiement.
• Company needs a brand identity .a recognition therefore it is advised to have a brand
ambassador.
• Sending investment tips and reports through mails and messages and updating on
website.
• This has to be followed by target achieved messages and mails .This fills confidence
in the investors about the quality of ressearch.
• Camps in Colleges and companies as employees normally have ESOP.
• Educating Sessions for old clients about stock market trading, stock market
instruments and also about the new Technological developments adopted in the stock
market
• Instead of Charging AMC once a year , charge monthly amc charges which doesnot
create heavy charges feeling.
• Website was old and crowded with information ,so a fresh look and feel is adviced.
43. Learnings
• Corporate culture ,environment..
• Basics of Stock Market, new and different products of trading.
• Different Softwares of trading.
• Psychology of Indian retail investors.