Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
SlideShare a Scribd company logo

Reshaping Food Systems in a Changing World

•Download as PPTX, PDF•
•
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

1. The global food system is facing challenges from rapid urbanization, changing diets, and environmental degradation while malnutrition persists. 2. Conflict is a key driver of hunger for 74 million people and famine risk is rising. 3. Rapid urbanization and growth of the middle class is changing diets and increasing pressure on food systems while the food industry expands globally.

1 of 19
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Shenggen Fan | Director General International Food Policy Research Institute DFID Webinar | July 5, 2018 RESHAPING FOOD SYSTEMS IN A CHANGING WORLD Urbanization, Nutrition, and Purchased Food
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Outline Reshaping food systems is key to address these global trends Mega-trends are impacting global food systems Despite progress, multiple burdens of malnutrition persist AND planetary health is increasingly at risk
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Source: FAO 2017 Prevalence and number of undernourished worldwide Metabolic risk factors for diet-related NCDs globally (%) Source: GNR 2017 Prevalence of adult obesity, 2016(%) Source: WHO 2018 Source: UNICEF/WHO/WB 2018 Children under 5 affected by malnutrition, 2000-2017 (millions) Despite progress, multiple burdens of malnutrition persist
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Source: Campbell et al. 2017 Under BAU, agriculture will almost reach 2°C target emission for all sectors in 2050 (~21 GtCO2eyr-1) Agriculture is pushing planetary boundaries Climate mitigation requires dramatic transformation Source: Bajželj et al. 2014 BAU 2° target by 2050 2009 emissions from agriculture CT1 = Current yield trend CT2 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction CT3 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction & Healthy diets YG1 = Yield gap closure (sustainable intensification) YG2 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction YG3 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction & Healthy diets AND planetary heath is increasingly at risk
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Mega-trends are impacting food systems Rapid population growth, and urbanization Technological innovations Conflict, hunger, and famine Emerging food industry Food safety concerns & anti-microbial resistance Changing global landscape
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Threats to investments Trade protectionism Knowledge & data flow restrictions Tightening borders Stalled farm policy reforms Anti-multilateralism 1. The global landscape is changing
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 In 2017, conflict and insecurity was the main driver of food insecurity in 18 countries, affecting 74 million people Global Report on Food Crises: Main drivers of hunger in 2017 Source: FSIN 2018 Famine risk: largest food crises in 70 years Source: FAO 2017 2. Conflict is driving hunger, and famine risk is increasing Source: FSIN 2018
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Projected urban share of global population Urban 68% 20502015 Urban 54% Source: Ruel et al. 2017 • Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia and Africa • China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents • Burdens of malnutrition shifting from rural areas to urban areas Source: OECD 2010 0 20 40 60 80 2009 2020 2030 North America Europe Central and South America Asia Pacific Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%) Source: UN 2018 3. Rapid urbanization & middle class growth continues…
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 3. ...AND changing diets are increasing pressure on food systems Projected changes in diet composition (kcal/capita/day) Source: Wiebe and Rosegrant 2015 Note: WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa World East Asia Europe Historical changes in diet composition (kcal/capita/day) North America South Asia Africa Source: FAO 2018 Increase in consumption of animal products and fats, oils, and sugar – especially in Asia
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Source: Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017 • Urban poor face challenges in access to high- quality, diverse, safe, and affordable diets • As incomes increase urban consumers more likely to consume imbalanced diets that are ‒ Heavy on processed foods ‒ High in calories, saturated fats, refined sugars, and salt ‒ Low in fiber • Poor diets among urban residents resulting from ‒ Availability and marketing of energy-rich, nutrient-poor foods ‒ Changes in life styles and types of employment, especially for women Urban areas face unique challenges Rural Urban Source: GLOPAN 2016 Percentage of value of food consumed from different categories, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Mozambique, Malawi, South Africa
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Food industry is expanding, especially in developing countries • Increased consolidation and vertical coordination • Modernization and expansion of food sector, particularly at midstream stages ‒ Opportunities for job creation, diet diversification, increased food safety • Expansion of supermarkets changing nature of food distribution ‒ By mid-2000s supermarkets controlled up to 50% of food market in Southeast Asia and Central America • ICTs and online distribution channels continue to change market organization and access to food Source: IFPRI 2018; Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017 Global food and agribusiness in 2015 estimated to account for • $5 trillion value • 10% of global consumer spending • 40% of employment Sources: Goedde, Horii, and Sanghvi 2015 4. Food industry is also rapidly emerging
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 • Unsafe foods pose huge economic costs ‒ USA: Foodborne illnesses cost $14 - 152 bil./year ‒ China: $970 mil. in losses in 2014 from tainted meat Source: Adapted from WHO 2015 5. Food safety concerns for nutrition, health and livelihoods are rising Projected extra healthcare expenditures Anti-microbial resistance (AMR) is becoming prominent, impacting human health, productivity, and poverty Sources: Word Bank 2017
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 6. Technologies are emerging in and beyond agriculture Source: Thottathil, Jayasekaran, and Othman 2016; Toumisto 2011 Automation and mechanization • Increasing use of machines and electronics in agriculture • Implications on youth unemployment – need to move jobs to post-harvest service sector Hydroponic, vertical or indoor farming • Estimated US$750 million in North American private investment in vertical farming (through Q3 2017) • Economically viable and sustainable Biotechnology Source: Indoor Ag-Con 2016 • Gene sequencing ‒ Dramatic reduction in cost to ~US $1,121/genome ‒ Sequenced crop genomes could improve agriculture in challenging climates • ‘Cultured’ meat ‒ Production involves 78-96% lower GHG emissions, 99% lower land use, 82-96% lower water use depending on conventional meat product compared
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Reshaping food systems is key to address global trends
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Promote nutritious, sustainable, and healthy diets • Tax nutrient-poor foods and subsidize nutrient-rich foods ‒ Divert funds to promote carbon neutral or low carbon food production (e.g. Brazil’s carbon neutral beef) • Taxing emissions-intensive foods (e.g. meat and dairy) could avoid more than 100,000 deaths in 2020 Source: Tiffin and Arnoult 2010, WRI 2016, Springmann et al. 2016 Changes in prices and consumption by food commodity (%) Convert inefficient subsidies of unhealthy foods and inputs to • Support production of fruits, vegetables, and other nutrient- rich foods • Provide income support for vulnerable groups, including smallholders, women, and youth Prioritize policies for health and the environment Environmental footprint of various foods
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Source: Resnick 2017, Glatzel 2017, Fan and Graziano da Silva 2017 Strengthen rural-urban linkages • Improve policy coordination between rural and urban areas • Support efficient and inclusive rural-urban value chains • Leverage towns and intermediate cities to facilitate socio-economic links Promote effective governance mechanisms • Integrate and coordinate relevant sectors • Enhance monitoring and accountability with data Improve governance in urban and rural areas Support informal economy in urban areas • Improve policies for effective oversight and safety without stifling commerce or access – E.g. Zambia’s inclusive management boards of informal markets • Provide training and education, especially for food safety standards – E.g. Kenya’s Dairy Traders Association trains informal milk traders on basic hygiene and quality testing
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Invest in evidence-based techs for health and the environment • Yield enhancing technologies (e.g. Precision agriculture) ‒ Microdosing in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso saw millet yields increase by over 50% & better water absorption (ICRISAT) • Improved, climate-resilient varieties (e.g. C4 Rice) ‒ Increased rice yields by 50% and N-use efficiency by 30% (IRRI) • Nutrition-driven and nutrition-sensitive technologies (e.g. Biofortification) ‒ More than 30 million people are consuming one or more of 12 biofortified crops globally (HarvestPlus) Photos: HarvestPlus, WEF Scale up new multiple-win technologies • Foster an “innovative ecosystem” – enabling innovators to engage in iterative processes • Encourage global networks for sharing ideas and learning across markets and geographies Use ICTs to link smallholders to urban consumers • E-commerce connecting rural farmers with supply and demand information (e.g. China’s G20 initiative) Promote multiple-win technological innovations
Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Upcoming global learning event bringing together decision makers, practitioners, researchers, and other stakeholders Cooperation and mutual learning will be key
Shenggen Fan, July 2018

More Related Content

Reshaping Food Systems in a Changing World

  • 1. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Shenggen Fan | Director General International Food Policy Research Institute DFID Webinar | July 5, 2018 RESHAPING FOOD SYSTEMS IN A CHANGING WORLD Urbanization, Nutrition, and Purchased Food
  • 2. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Outline Reshaping food systems is key to address these global trends Mega-trends are impacting global food systems Despite progress, multiple burdens of malnutrition persist AND planetary health is increasingly at risk
  • 3. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Source: FAO 2017 Prevalence and number of undernourished worldwide Metabolic risk factors for diet-related NCDs globally (%) Source: GNR 2017 Prevalence of adult obesity, 2016(%) Source: WHO 2018 Source: UNICEF/WHO/WB 2018 Children under 5 affected by malnutrition, 2000-2017 (millions) Despite progress, multiple burdens of malnutrition persist
  • 4. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Source: Campbell et al. 2017 Under BAU, agriculture will almost reach 2°C target emission for all sectors in 2050 (~21 GtCO2eyr-1) Agriculture is pushing planetary boundaries Climate mitigation requires dramatic transformation Source: Bajželj et al. 2014 BAU 2° target by 2050 2009 emissions from agriculture CT1 = Current yield trend CT2 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction CT3 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction & Healthy diets YG1 = Yield gap closure (sustainable intensification) YG2 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction YG3 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction & Healthy diets AND planetary heath is increasingly at risk
  • 5. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Mega-trends are impacting food systems Rapid population growth, and urbanization Technological innovations Conflict, hunger, and famine Emerging food industry Food safety concerns & anti-microbial resistance Changing global landscape
  • 6. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Threats to investments Trade protectionism Knowledge & data flow restrictions Tightening borders Stalled farm policy reforms Anti-multilateralism 1. The global landscape is changing
  • 7. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 In 2017, conflict and insecurity was the main driver of food insecurity in 18 countries, affecting 74 million people Global Report on Food Crises: Main drivers of hunger in 2017 Source: FSIN 2018 Famine risk: largest food crises in 70 years Source: FAO 2017 2. Conflict is driving hunger, and famine risk is increasing Source: FSIN 2018
  • 8. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Projected urban share of global population Urban 68% 20502015 Urban 54% Source: Ruel et al. 2017 • Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia and Africa • China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents • Burdens of malnutrition shifting from rural areas to urban areas Source: OECD 2010 0 20 40 60 80 2009 2020 2030 North America Europe Central and South America Asia Pacific Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%) Source: UN 2018 3. Rapid urbanization & middle class growth continues…
  • 9. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 3. ...AND changing diets are increasing pressure on food systems Projected changes in diet composition (kcal/capita/day) Source: Wiebe and Rosegrant 2015 Note: WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa World East Asia Europe Historical changes in diet composition (kcal/capita/day) North America South Asia Africa Source: FAO 2018 Increase in consumption of animal products and fats, oils, and sugar – especially in Asia
  • 10. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Source: Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017 • Urban poor face challenges in access to high- quality, diverse, safe, and affordable diets • As incomes increase urban consumers more likely to consume imbalanced diets that are ‒ Heavy on processed foods ‒ High in calories, saturated fats, refined sugars, and salt ‒ Low in fiber • Poor diets among urban residents resulting from ‒ Availability and marketing of energy-rich, nutrient-poor foods ‒ Changes in life styles and types of employment, especially for women Urban areas face unique challenges Rural Urban Source: GLOPAN 2016 Percentage of value of food consumed from different categories, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Mozambique, Malawi, South Africa
  • 11. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Food industry is expanding, especially in developing countries • Increased consolidation and vertical coordination • Modernization and expansion of food sector, particularly at midstream stages ‒ Opportunities for job creation, diet diversification, increased food safety • Expansion of supermarkets changing nature of food distribution ‒ By mid-2000s supermarkets controlled up to 50% of food market in Southeast Asia and Central America • ICTs and online distribution channels continue to change market organization and access to food Source: IFPRI 2018; Ruel, Garrett, and Yosef 2017 Global food and agribusiness in 2015 estimated to account for • $5 trillion value • 10% of global consumer spending • 40% of employment Sources: Goedde, Horii, and Sanghvi 2015 4. Food industry is also rapidly emerging
  • 12. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 • Unsafe foods pose huge economic costs ‒ USA: Foodborne illnesses cost $14 - 152 bil./year ‒ China: $970 mil. in losses in 2014 from tainted meat Source: Adapted from WHO 2015 5. Food safety concerns for nutrition, health and livelihoods are rising Projected extra healthcare expenditures Anti-microbial resistance (AMR) is becoming prominent, impacting human health, productivity, and poverty Sources: Word Bank 2017
  • 13. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 6. Technologies are emerging in and beyond agriculture Source: Thottathil, Jayasekaran, and Othman 2016; Toumisto 2011 Automation and mechanization • Increasing use of machines and electronics in agriculture • Implications on youth unemployment – need to move jobs to post-harvest service sector Hydroponic, vertical or indoor farming • Estimated US$750 million in North American private investment in vertical farming (through Q3 2017) • Economically viable and sustainable Biotechnology Source: Indoor Ag-Con 2016 • Gene sequencing ‒ Dramatic reduction in cost to ~US $1,121/genome ‒ Sequenced crop genomes could improve agriculture in challenging climates • ‘Cultured’ meat ‒ Production involves 78-96% lower GHG emissions, 99% lower land use, 82-96% lower water use depending on conventional meat product compared
  • 14. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Reshaping food systems is key to address global trends
  • 15. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Promote nutritious, sustainable, and healthy diets • Tax nutrient-poor foods and subsidize nutrient-rich foods ‒ Divert funds to promote carbon neutral or low carbon food production (e.g. Brazil’s carbon neutral beef) • Taxing emissions-intensive foods (e.g. meat and dairy) could avoid more than 100,000 deaths in 2020 Source: Tiffin and Arnoult 2010, WRI 2016, Springmann et al. 2016 Changes in prices and consumption by food commodity (%) Convert inefficient subsidies of unhealthy foods and inputs to • Support production of fruits, vegetables, and other nutrient- rich foods • Provide income support for vulnerable groups, including smallholders, women, and youth Prioritize policies for health and the environment Environmental footprint of various foods
  • 16. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Source: Resnick 2017, Glatzel 2017, Fan and Graziano da Silva 2017 Strengthen rural-urban linkages • Improve policy coordination between rural and urban areas • Support efficient and inclusive rural-urban value chains • Leverage towns and intermediate cities to facilitate socio-economic links Promote effective governance mechanisms • Integrate and coordinate relevant sectors • Enhance monitoring and accountability with data Improve governance in urban and rural areas Support informal economy in urban areas • Improve policies for effective oversight and safety without stifling commerce or access – E.g. Zambia’s inclusive management boards of informal markets • Provide training and education, especially for food safety standards – E.g. Kenya’s Dairy Traders Association trains informal milk traders on basic hygiene and quality testing
  • 17. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Invest in evidence-based techs for health and the environment • Yield enhancing technologies (e.g. Precision agriculture) ‒ Microdosing in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso saw millet yields increase by over 50% & better water absorption (ICRISAT) • Improved, climate-resilient varieties (e.g. C4 Rice) ‒ Increased rice yields by 50% and N-use efficiency by 30% (IRRI) • Nutrition-driven and nutrition-sensitive technologies (e.g. Biofortification) ‒ More than 30 million people are consuming one or more of 12 biofortified crops globally (HarvestPlus) Photos: HarvestPlus, WEF Scale up new multiple-win technologies • Foster an “innovative ecosystem” – enabling innovators to engage in iterative processes • Encourage global networks for sharing ideas and learning across markets and geographies Use ICTs to link smallholders to urban consumers • E-commerce connecting rural farmers with supply and demand information (e.g. China’s G20 initiative) Promote multiple-win technological innovations
  • 18. Shenggen Fan, July 2018 Upcoming global learning event bringing together decision makers, practitioners, researchers, and other stakeholders Cooperation and mutual learning will be key

Editor's Notes

  1. Photo: https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldbank/8249939579/
  2. Percentage of monetary value of food consumed from different categories: Ethiopia 2004/2005, Uganda 2009/2010, Tanzania 2010/2011, Mozambique 2008/2009, Malawi 2001/2011, South Africa 2010 http://glopan.org/sites/default/files/ForesightReport.pdf
  3. http://www.ifpri.org/event/food-industries-people-and-planet https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/chemicals/our-insights/pursuing-the-global-opportunity-in-food-and-agribusiness https://www.forbes.com/2007/11/11/growth-agriculture-business-forbeslife-food07-cx_sm_1113bigfood.html#167c6cd8373e https://www.ced.org/pdf/Economic_Contribution_of_the_Food_and_Beverage_Industry.pdf
  4. https://qz.com/997565/in-four-years-the-price-of-lab-grown-meat-has-fallen-by-96-theres-still-a-long-way-to-go/
  5. vegetable farm in Thade, Nepal. The Decentralized Rural Infrastructure and Livelihood Project (ADB) https://www.flickr.com/photos/asiandevelopmentbank/8425065219/in/album-72157632638818236/
  6. https://www.ifpri.org/blog/why-brutalizing-food-vendors-hits-africas-growing-cities-where-it-hurts http://www.ifpri.org/blog/why-supporting-africas-informal-markets-could-mean-better-nutrition-poor-city-dwellers