This document discusses long term outcomes and prognosis in schizophrenia based on various studies. Some key points:
1. Studies have shown highly variable outcomes both between and within patients, with less than half showing substantial improvement after 6 years on average.
2. Outcomes have improved over the 20th century but trends reversed after the 1970s. Course descriptors vary by length of follow-up.
3. International studies like IPSS and ISoS found better outcomes in India, Nigeria, and Colombia compared to developed countries, with higher remission rates.
2. History
• In the pre-kraeplelinian era secondry
dementia was considered the outcome of
most psychoses now diagnosed as
schizophrenia.
• Kraepelin pointed out that the deficiency was
more in the field of emotion and volition, less
in that of judgement or memory.
• In bleuler’s view the disturbance of
intelligence could not be adequately described
as dementia.
3. History
• In 1903 Kraepelin noticed that the basic form
of dementia praecox and manic depressive
insanity in the Javanese were essentially the
same as in Europe.
• In a 1953 monograph published by the WHO,
John Carothers claimed that the paucity of
structural delusional content and lack of
systematization of delusion in the African
could be explained by congenital
underdevelopment of frontal lobe of brain.
4. Outcome
• Short term - < 2 years follow-up.
• Mid term - 2-5 year follow-up.
• Long term - >5 years follow-up
5. Dimensions of outcome
• Outcome is a multidimensional construct that
a minimum requires description of domains
for:
1. Clinical (symptoms and treatment).
2. Psychosocial function.
6. Functional outcome domains
• Social
• Occupational
• Independent living
• Rehabilitation success
• Substance abuse
7. Terminology of outcome
• Define outcome in terms of:
1. Response
2. Remission
3. Recovery
4. Relapse
8. Response
• Response is some relief of symptoms and
some improvement in functioning. The term
‘response’ implies that this improvement
arises from treatment, usually because it is
associated in time with that treatment.
9. Remission
• Remission is a period of complete relief of
symptoms and a return of full functioning,
which may be brief.
• Remission criteria define remission as a low-
mild symptom intensity level, where such
absent, borderline, or mild symptoms do not
influence an individual’s behavior. *
*Liberman RP, Kopelowicz A, Venture J, Gutkind D: Operational criteria and factors related to recovery from schizophrenia. Int Rev Psychiatry
2002; 14:256–272
10. Recovery
• “Mental health recovery is a journey of healing
and transformation enabling a person with a
mental health problem to live a meaningful life in
a community of his or her choice while striving to
achieve his or her potential.”
Or
• Is a period of complete relief of symptoms and a
return of full functioning, which is likely to be
longer term.
11. Relapse
• Is the return of symptoms, satisfying the diagnostic
criteria for the disorder, after a patient has either
responded or remitted, but before recovery.
• According to Johnstone, relapse could also be defined
as Type I, the reappearance of schizophrenic
symptoms in a patient who has been free of them
following the initial episode, and Type II, the
exacerbation of persistent positive symptoms*.
*Johnstone EC. Relapse in schizophrenia: what are the major issues? In: Hawton K, editor. Practical problems in clinical psychiatry. Oxford: Oxford
University Press; 1992;159-71.
12. Recurrence
• Recurrence is the return of symptoms,
satisfying the diagnostic criteria for the
disorder, after the patient has recovered.
13. Need for follow-up study
• To know natural history of disease.
• Course of disease.
• Outcome of disease.
• Cultural variation of disease course and
outcome.
• Effect of drugs on disease progression.
14. List of selected course and outcome
studies in schizophrenia 1972-2005
Author Country Sample
size
Length of
F/U
Proportion good outcome
Bleuler (1972) Switzerland 208 23 20% remission , 33% mild defect
Tsung et al.
(1979)
USA 186 35 46% recovered or improve
significantly
Ciompi (1980) Switzerland 289 37 20% recovered, 43% definitely
improved
Huber et al.
(1980)
Germany 502 22 26% recovered 31% remission with
mild defect
Harding et al.
(1987)
USA 118 32 62% recovered or improved
significantly
Ogawa et al.
(1987)
Japan 140 21-27 31% recovered, 46% improved
15. Author Country Sample size Length of
F/U
Proportion good outcome
Shepherd et al.
(1989)
UK 107 5 22% rcovered, no relapse
Johnstone et
al. (1990)
UK 530 3-13 14% excellent, 18.5% very
good social adjustment
Caron et al.
(1991)
USA 79 5 17% complete remission
Marneros et al.
(1992)
Germany 249 25 Full remission in 24%
(broad), 7% pure schizo.
Thara et al.
(1994)
India 90 (1st onset) 10 12% complete recovery,
62% remission
Mason et al.
(1995)
UK 67 13 17% complete recovery,
52% remission
Wieselgren &
Lindstrom
(1996)
Sweden 120 5 30% good outcome
Wiersma et al.
(1998)
Holland 82 15 27% complete, 50% partial
remission
16. Author Country Sample size Length of
F/U
Proportion good outcome
Ganev et al.
(1998)
Bulgaria 60 16 32% complete, 5% partial
remission
Gureje &
Bamidele
(1999)
Nigeria 120 13 22% unimpaired 19%
some impairment
Finnerty et al.
(2002)
Ireland 67 (1st onset) 15 35% complete remission,
46% partial remission
Thara (2004) India 90 (1st onset) 20 6% complete recovery,
15% clinically stable
Lauronon et al.
(2005)
Finland 91 (birth
cohart
members)
To age 31
yr
4% complete recovery, 3%
partial remission
17. Indian study
author Outcome
Clinical Social, occupational
Johnson S et al/ 2012/
vellore India
68% remitted, 24% had at least one
additional psychotic episode
Median WHO-DAS score
8
Srivastava A et al /2009/
Mumbai India
100% had PANSS positive score <21,
88% had PANSS negative score <21
61.7% had GAF > 80
Suresh et al/ 2012/ rural
Karnataka India
N/A 60% of patient had
mild/no disability in work
Verghese A et al/ 1989/
Chennai, Vellore, Lucknow
India (SOFACOS)
64% in remission, 6% continuous
psychosis, 30% other
61% occupational
impairment
PANSS - Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale
GAF - Global Assessment of Function
SOFACOS- Study Of Factors Associated With Course and Outcome of Schizophrenia
WHODAS, WHO- Disability Assessment Schedule;
18. The evidence from recent systemic reviews generally
support the following conclusion
1. The course of schizophrenia is highly variable
both with in patient and between patients.
2. Less then half of patients diagnosed as
schizophrenia show substantial clinical
improvement after follow-up time averaging 6
years.
3. Examining trend in course and outcome over the
past century revealed substantial gains in
favorable outcome from the 1920 – 1970 after
which time gradient seems to be reversed.
19. 4. Course of descriptors varies as a function of the
length of follow-up.
5. On average patient with diagnosis of
schizophrenia has the poorest outcome.
6. Course and outcome estimates vary depending
on the diagnostic classification used.
7. There is no reliable set of predictors yet
identified for course and outcome.
20. Methodological heterogeneity
• Variation in population from which patient are
selected.
• Variation in diagnostic criteria.
• Variation in length of illness before entry in to
follow-up.
• Variability of attrition rate.
21. • Variation in methods used to assess course
and outcome.
• Variation in the characteristics of the general
population.
• Variation in statistical techniques and
adjustment of confounding.
• Variation in long term management of
schizophrenia.
22. WHO description of clinical symptoms
course and outcome
1. Single psychotic episode followed by complete
remission.
2. Single psychotic episode followed by incomplete
remission.
3. Two or more psychotic episode with complete
remission between episodes.
4. Two or more episodes with incomplete
remission between episodes.
5. Continuous (unremitting) chronic psychosis.
23. International study
• WHO Ten Country Study. (short term)
• International Pilot study on
Schizophrenia.(IPSS)
• International study of schizophrenia (ISoS)
• The study on determinants of outcome of
severe mental disorders.(DOSMeD)
24. IPSS
• IPSS began in 1966 as a large scale cross-
cultural collaborative project carried out
simultaneously in nine countries that differ
widely in their sociocultural and economic
characteristics.
25. Centre for IPSS
Country Centre
Arthus Denmark
Agra India
Cali Columbia
Ibadan Nigeria
London England
Moscow U.S.S.R.
Taipei China
Washington U.S.A.
Prague Czechoslovakia
26. IPSS
• In IPSS total 1202 patient has been taken. Out of
which 811 received a clinical diagnosis of
schizophrenia, 164 affective psychoses, 102 other
psychoses.
Method – The IPSS was carried out in three phases,
a preliminary phase, an initial evaluation phse
and a follow up phase. And all the patient
interviewed by using “present state examination”
27. Outcome in IPSS
• IPSS found that higher proportion of patients in
India, Colombia, and Nigeria had better outcomes
on most dimensions than patients in developed
countries.
• Complete remission of the initial psychiotic
episode within 5 years had occurred in as many
as 42% of patients in India 33% of patients in
Nigeria, whereas the majority of patients in the
developed countries had experienced persistent
psychotic symptoms.
28. International study of schizophrenia
(ISoS)
• It involves 18 research centers in 14 countries,
traced 75% of cases assessed in the earlier
WHO studies.
• It includes cohort from IPSS as well as
additional cohort from China, Hong Kong, and
India.
30. ISoS summary
• 57% patients had experienced a total of less
than 9 months of active psychosis, only 22%
had been psychotic for 45-60 months.
31. Outcome of First Episode
Schizophrenia 1981
• 15 yr follow-up of FES (Netherlands site
DOSMeD study) (Wiersma et al, 1998)
• 43% relapsed in 1 yr, 70% by 5 yrs
• 11% committed suicide
• 26.7% Completely remitted
• 50.1 % Partial remission
• 11.0% Chronic psychosis
• 9/82 chronically psychotic from first episode
32. Risks for poor recovery
• Period of time spent psychotic in first 2 yrs
predicted
• poor outcome
• Younger age
• Substance abuse
• Blunted affect
• Loss of social network
• Family involvement
33. Factors influencing the variation in
outcome
• Due to additive or interactive effect of genetic
difference between populations.
• Ethnopsychiatrist Henry Murphy: proposed four
criteria for schizophrenia evoking stress-
– A situation demanding action or decision
– Complexity or ambiguity of the information supplied
to deal with the task
– Unless resolved the situation demanding action or
decision.
– The person has no escape route available.
34. Risk factors for the persistence of
schizophrenia
• There is strong evidence that child hood
cognitive ability is associated with outcome.
• Lower intelligence has been shown to predict
unfavorable clinical and functional outcomes
at follow-up.
• Subtle social premorbid adjustment to be
associated with less remitting course and
poorer functional outcome.
35. Factors predicting poor outcome
Features of the illness
• Insidious onset
• Long first episode
• Previous psychiatric history
• Negative symptoms
• Younger age at onset
Features of the patient
• Male
• Single, separated, widowed, or divorced
• Poor psychosexual adjustment
• Abnormal previous personality
• Poor employment record
• Social isolation
• Poor compliance
36. Natural course of schizophrenia before
the neuroleptic era
• Study from urban communities in Scotland
and India (padmavati et al. 1998) and rural
community in China.
• Outcome of these sample were hetrogeneous
but except for larger proportion of Chinese
patients having marked psychotic symptoms.
They did not differ much from the outcome
from the treated group.
37. Variation in the outcome in
schizophrenia
• Systemic investigation in to the course and
outcome of schizophrenia were initiated by
Kraepelin.
• In a historical study of 70 Swedish patients with
first admission in 1925, life time records were
retrieved and rediagnosed in accordance with
DSM-III. None of these patients received
neuroleptics. The final outcome was rated as
good in 33%, as profoundly deteriorated in 43%,
and as intermediate in 24%.
38. Secular trend In outcome of
schizophrenia
• A meta-analysis of 320 outcome studies on
schizophrenia published between 1895 to 1992,
which comprise a total of 51,800 subjects.
• Overall about 40% of the patients have been
described as improvement after an average
length of follow-up 5.6 years.
• There was a significant increased in the rate of
improvement during 1956-1985 compared to
1895-1955, clearly related to introduction of
neuroleptic treatment.
39. Cognitive dysfunction in
schizophrenia
• Cognitive dysfunction in areas of:
– Attention and concentration
– Memory
– Planning and executive functions
• Important in the determination of long term
outcome and social functioning (Green, 1996; Green et
al, 2000)
• Cognitive remediation strategies
40. Relationship of Neurocognitive
Impairment to Functioning
• The three types of functional outcome that
most studies of neurocognitive deficits have
examined are community (social and
occupational) outcome, the ability to solve
simulations of interpersonal interactions, and
success in psychosocial rehabilitation
programs.
41. • A meta-analysis of 26 randomized clinical
trials involving a total of 1,151 patients
concluded that neurocognitive remediation
produces moderate improvements in
neurocognitive performance and, when
combined with psychiatric rehabilitation, also
improves functional outcomes
• Working memory has been described by
various authors as a core component of the
neurocognitive impairment in schizophrenia
and is related to functional outcomes such as
employment status and job tenure
42. Role of imaging in outcome
• Poorer outcome was associated with post
onset brain changes in patients diagnosed
with a first-episode schizophrenia
• more pronounced brain changes appear to be
associated with poor outcome, more negative
symptoms, and poor performance on
neurocognitive measures, although the latter
are more equivocal.
43. Prognostic factor
Good prognosis Poor prognosis
Late age of onset Young onset
Obvious precipitating factors No precipitating factors
Acute onset Insidious onset
Good premorbid, social, sexual and work
study
Poor premorbid, social, sexual, and work
history
Mood disorder symptoms Withdrawn, autistic behavior
Married Single, divorced, or widowed
Family history of mood disorder Family history of schizophrenia
Good support system Poor support system
Positive symptoms Negative symptoms
Neurological sign and symptoms
H/O perinatal trauma
No remission in 3 years , many relapses