Simon Henry - Credit Suisse European Oil & Gas Conference - June 9, 2011
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This document summarizes Simon Henry's presentation at the Credit Suisse European Oil & Gas Conference in London on June 9, 2011. Henry discusses Royal Dutch Shell's strategy of focusing on safety, continuous improvement, asset sales, capital efficiency, growth delivery, and maturing next generation project options. Key projects discussed include Qatargas 4 in Qatar, AOSP-1 in Canada, Pearl GTL in Qatar, and recent investment decisions in Mars-B in the US and Prelude Floating LNG in Australia.
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Simon Henry - Credit Suisse European Oil & Gas Conference - June 9, 2011
1. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
CREDIT SUISSE
EUROPEAN OIL & GAS
CONFERENCE
LONDON
JUNE 9, 2011
1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
2. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
SIMON HENRY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
2 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
3. DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves for all 2009 and 2010 data, and includes both SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven
mining reserves for 2008 data.
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven mining reserves. Resources are
consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.
Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining reserves (for 2008) excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-
average pricing impact.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for
convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those
who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell
companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a
controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control
are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for
convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 24% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company,
after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical
fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and
assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.
Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations,
beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’,
‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of
factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this
presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results;
(e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and
targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and
regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l)
political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the
reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary
statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal
Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2010 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking
statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 9 June 2011. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking
statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.
We may use certain terms in this presentation, such as resources and oil in place, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in
filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from
the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
3 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
4. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
STRATEGY UPDATE
4 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
5. SHELL
‘GOAL ZERO’ ON SAFETY
Injuries – TRCF per million working hours
Customer and Profitability &
partner focus performance
Sustainability & Value added
growth technology
Focus on personal and process safety
Industry leader in Sustainable Development
EMPLOYEES AND CONTRACTORS PER MILLION WORKING HOURS; SHELL OPERATED FACILITIES
5 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
6. NATURAL GAS OUTLOOK
NATURAL GAS DEMAND SHELL GAS CAPABILITIES
BCM
SOURCE: IEA Inaugural cargo QatarGas 4 arriving at Hazira terminal
NATURAL GAS ADVANTAGE: EXAMPLE CCGT ATTRACTIVE ECONOMICS FOR ELECTRICITY PRODUCERS
$/MW hour
GALLINA LNG SHIP - SINGAPORE
Abundant, Affordable, Acceptable
Global gas resources ~250 years reserves at
current production
CCGT: gas-fired power compared to coal:
• 40% more energy efficient
• 50-70% less CO2
• Better complements with wind power CAPITAL COST LONG-RUN MARGINAL COST
CCGT: COMBINED CYCLE GAS TURBINE SOURCE: SHELL ANALYSIS BASED ON EU DATA
6 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
7. STRATEGY FRAMEWORK
MATURING NEXT GENERATION
PROJECT OPTIONS
NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
PERFORMANCE FOCUS
7 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
8. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
PERFORMANCE FOCUS
8 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
9. CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
CONTRACTING & PROCUREMENT DOWNSTREAM PORTFOLIO OFFSHORING
Procurement from emerging markets # of Retail sites ‘000 # of staff in shared service centres
$Mln # of Suppliers
BEING QUALIFIED DIRECT SITES INDIRECT SITES
SPEND SUPPLIERS
QUALIFIED COSTS (RHS)
Sourcing from China, India, Low cost indirect operating model Shifting support functions to low
Russia and Mexico Margin retention + enhancement cost shared service centres
Up to 20 % savings versus • Brand + customer focus + Reducing headcount in higher
market alternatives differentiated products cost locations
High end specifications $1 billion cost savings target
2011-12
9 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
10. ASSET SALES + CAPITAL EFFICIENCY
ASSET SALES PROGRESS 2010 & 2011 YTD >$30 BILLION DIVESTMENTS – 5 YEARS
$ Bln - cumulative
$5 billion 2011E
Finland & Sweden
Statfjord
Heide & Harburg refineries
Stanlow
Wilcat Hills US retail LPG business worldwide CORPORATE
/Woodenhouse U.S. Car Care UPSTREAM
South Texas Greece Syria Pakistan DOWNSTREAM
GOM Assets
El Salvador
Panama &
Costa Rica 14 countries
Cano Sur Nigeria
Africa
Clyde
Chile
10 % Woodside
New Zealand
Divestment /Exit announced or proposed
Upstream Deal Complete
Downstream
Allocating capital to high impact growth
Exit from late-life + non-core positions
10 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
11. REFOCUSING DOWNSTREAM
REFOCUSING REFINERY PORTFOLIO MARKETING REFOCUS
Shell refining capacity – Mln bbl/d % DIRECT EXITS
INDIRECT/PART EXIT
4.7
-30%
3.3
Retail Lubricants Aviation Fuels Bulk Fuels
sites markets markets markets
EUROPE & AFRICA AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC
11 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
12. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
GROWTH DELIVERY
12 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
13. GROWTH DELIVERY
CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION
Bln Boe resources
Longer-term upside
NA tight gas
Australia
Cardamom Deep
Appomattox Prelude
Prelude Vito Malikai
Pearls (CMOC) AOSP debottleneck
NA tight gas
Schiehallion
Gorgon Mars-B
Clair
NA tight gas BC-10 Phase2
Pearl GTL
AOSP-Exp 1 QG-4
Sakhalin Gjoa Oman EOR
BC-10 Perdido Schoonebeek
Gbaran Ubie Others
NA tight gas
ON-STREAM UNDER CONSTRUCTION STUDY PRODUCTION
~10 billion barrels on stream
~11 billion barrels under construction
~10 billion barrels new options
13 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
14. GROWTH DELIVERY
DELIVERING ON NEW PROJECTS
KEY POST-FID PROJECTS RESOURCES
2010 - Bln boe
Gjoa
Study
AOSP-1 Schoonebeek
NA Port Arthur ~11 billion Boe
Tight gas Iraq FCP/IPT resources
Perdido Qatargas 4 Pearl GtL Singapore Under 20 Upstream
Chemicals Construction start-ups 2011-14
Mars B Qarn Alam Gumusut-Kakap
Gbaran Ubie Ph 1 planned
Bonga Onstream
NW Amal Steam North Rankin B
BC-10 Ph 2 Gorgon
Pluto OIL & GAS PRODUCTION GROWTH
T1-3
(Woodside)
Kboe/d
OIL & GAS START-UP DATE
INTEGRATED GAS 2010-11
REFINING & CHEMICALS 2012-13
2014+
ONSTREAM
11 billion boe resources under construction :
> 800 kboe/d potential 2014 OIL & GAS 2010 ASSET SALES
ENTITLEMENT AT $80/BBL; OUTLOOK ASSUMES LICENSE EXTENSIONS + 2010
ANNOUNCED ASSET DISPOSALS
14 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
15. GROWTH DELIVERY
2011 KEY START-UPS
QATARGAS 4 (QATAR) AOSP-1 (CANADA) PEARL GTL (QATAR)
Inaugural Qatargas 4 cargo arriving at Shell AOSP Jackpine mine Pearl GtL plant under construction
Hazira Regasification Terminal
AOSP-1 mine expansion 2010 - Commissioning underway; ~12
7.8 mtpa LNG + 70 kboe/d adds ~100 kboe/d months start-up
condensates
Upgrader expansion H1-2011 1.6 bcf/d wet gas:
First gas into plant – Jan 2011
255 kboe/d capacity built in • 120 kboe/d NGL/ethane
First LNG export – Feb 2011 ~10 years • 140 kboe/d GTL
Shell 30% Next focus: optimization + 100% Shell in partnership with QP
debottlenecking
Shell 60% (operator)
Part of ~600 kboe/d 2011-12 production growth for Shell
15 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
16. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
MATURING NEXT GENERATION
PROJECT OPTIONS
16 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
17. MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF PROJECT OPTIONS
MATURING NEW PROJECTS
OIL & GAS RESOURCES
2010 Resources in Bln boe
TIGHT GAS – N. AMERICA PRELUDE - AUSTRALIA
Longer-term upside
>10 billion boe ARROW - AUSTRALIA APPOMATTOX - USA
resources
> 30 new projects
> 1 mln boe/d
STUDY potential 2018-20...
... and maturing Long-term growth and investment
UNDER further options
Options to flex annual spending with macro
CONSTRUCTION
Capex and growth outcomes
Investment decisions driven by
ON Portfolio fit
STREAM
Affordability
Profitability
Portfolio can support profitable growth to ~2020
17 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
18. MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF PROJECT OPTIONS
NORTH AMERICA TIGHT GAS
PRODUCTION GROWTH
Kboe/d Mmscf/d 2011 investment: ~$3 billion; >400 wells
Canada
USA
SHELL ASSET BREAK EVEN PRICE Groundbirch 40 Tcfe resources potential
$/mcfe – End 2010 Deep Basin
Foothills
Pinedale
Marcellus
Eagle Ford Haynesville JV
BREAKEVEN PRICE ENTRY COST
Growth potential: ~ 300 kboe/d 2012; >400 kboe/d potential 2015
18 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
19. MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF PROJECT OPTIONS
RECENT PROJECT FINAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS
USA – MARS-B AUSTRALIA – PRELUDE FLNG
TLP capacity ~100 kboe/d First FID ever on Floating LNG
New resources at Mars field Largest floating operating facility in the world
West Boreas + South Deimos 110 kboe/d production; 3.6 mtpa LNG capacity
Water depth 950 meters Fast development from Prelude discovery (2007) to
Shell 72% (operator) FID
Shell 100% (operator)
19 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
21. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK
21 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
22. CONVERTING INVESTMENT TO CASHFLOW: 2009-12
INVESTING FOR NEW GROWTH
$ Bln $ Bln
OTHER
CANADA
2011
START-UPS
QATAR
2010
CAPITAL UNDER
CAPITAL UNDER CONSTRUCTION EXPLORATION & EVALUATION CONSTRUCTION
AOSP debottle ph-1
Pearl GtL Gumusut-Kakap Caesar Tonga Malakai
AOSP Expansion I Port Arthur Mars-B Prelude FID / DEALS
Qatargas 4 Duvernay East Resources Clair
Schiehallion
Singapore Chemicals Gorgon LNG BC-10 Phase 2 NA tight gas
QatarGas 4 2012-13
Nigeria T6 NWS T5 Sakhalin Perdido
Pearl GtL Corrib BC-10 Ph 2
Ormen Lange Afam Gas BC-10 AOSP mine AOSP upgrader Gumusut-Kakap 1.8 BAB/SAS START-UPS
Changbei Ursa Princess Singapore Gbaran Ubie Schoonebeek Port Arthur Kashagan Ph 1
Waterflood Chemicals Ph 1 Oman EOR Majnoon FCP North Rankin 2
ITALIC: PLANNED
22 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
23. CAPITAL SPENDING + OUTLOOK
UPSTREAM NET CAPITAL INVESTMENT
% Capital investment $ Bln
EXPLORATION
OTHERS HEAVY OIL & EOR
TIGHT GAS
EUROPE SOUR
ASIA PACIFIC DEEPWATER
AMERICAS
INTEGRATED GAS
TRADITIONAL
NET CAPITAL INVESTMENT
DOWNSTREAM 2012-14 INVESTMENT CHOICES & FLEXIBILITY
% Capital investment
Divestments up to $3 bn/year; capital efficiency
MARKETING FID pace + industry costs drive capex range
REFINING
Tight gas + exploration spend flexibility
CHEMICALS
2012-14 CAPITAL INVESTMENT EXCLUDES IRAQ FULL FIELD DEVELOPMENTS
23 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
24. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
SIMON HENRY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
24 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
25. OUTLOOK
PRIORITIES 2011-12 OUTLOOK
$1 billion Downstream cost savings
PERFORMANCE FOCUS Continuous improvement embedded in Shell
Up to $8 bln asset sales; capital efficiency
>20 projects under construction
NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION +6% production 2010-12
GROWTH
On track for 2012 cashflow targets
Studying > 30 new projects; 10 FIDs planned
2011-12
MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS Upstream growth potential to ~2020
Selective Downstream growth
Competitive performance – Profitable growth – Sharper delivery
25 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011
26. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
CREDIT SUISSE
EUROPEAN OIL & GAS CONFERENCE
Q&A
26 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9/06/2011