TADSummit Closing Keynote: BYOSpectrum – Why private cellular is a game-changer
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Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis. The telecoms industry loves to claim that 5G will disrupt and transform industries. What it hasn’t realised is that the first industry that will get disrupted is telecom itself. New local or shared spectrum bands (such as CBRS in the US), programmable cloud-based cores, eSIM and various other enablers are making it much easier for enterprises, IT companies, cities and Internet/cloud players to build their own private 4G – and soon 5G – networks. That’s not to say it’s as simple as installing Wi-Fi, but for various organisations from airports to oil companies to hospitals, it’s becoming a more realistic proposition. There are also various hybrids, where telcos can sell “slices” or local/enterprise MVNO deals, or allow companies to just run a separate private core network. Add in a new set of wholesale models (called Neutral Host), and the future wireless operator landscape looks very different from today. We’re seeing the democratisation of “programmable cellular networks”.
TADSummit Closing Keynote: BYOSpectrum – Why private cellular is a game-changer
- 1. BYOspectrum: Why Private Cellular is a Game-Changer Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis TADSummit, Chicago, 15-16 October 2019 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley
- 2. Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991 Advisor to telcos, regulators, vendors, investors, government Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy Cross-silo, contrarian, independent Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019 Network Tech, Policy & Business Models Communications Apps & Services Telecom-Futurism Industry Analyst Consulting & Reports
- 3. Whose network? What technology? Which spectrum? Which cloud?
- 4. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019 October 2019 bpd bps Gbps 10m Non- critical Function- critical 90% 99% 99.9% Rural Unlicensed Spectrum 3D Coverage Bandwidth Kbps Importance Business- critical Safety- critical Range <1m Mbps And also: Latency Deterministic Power source Socioeconomic Geopolitical Security model Mobility Integration Bi-directional Protocols Lobbying power 1km >10km 100m 4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite / TVWS / .11ah Wi-Fi 5, 6, 7, ay Biz Model CSP Private Amenity Community Decentralised Indoor Many dimensions for future wireless Shared Secondary Local Exclusive Licenses Sensed National Dynamic
- 5. Various new forms of 4G & 5G network emerging Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019 Micro- cellular Neutral host cellular Private cellular
- 6. Motivations: The 4 C’s of Private Cellular…. Coverage • In-Building • Rural • Industrial • Offices • Road / Rail • Utility • Metro areas • Military / Govt Control • Security • Sovereignty • Customised • Beyond Wi-Fi • Deployment • Lifecycle • Mobility • Private QoS Cost • Replace legacy LMR • Factory 4.0 • Fibre replace • Avoid carrier per-GB fees • Own IoT connectivity Compensation • Productivity • Private SIMs • Roaming • Local MVNO • Govt funding • Local FWA • MNO offload Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
- 7. Three major trends catalysing enterprise cellular Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019 4G > 5G Small cells & cloud New (local) spectrum models New applications & opportunities for indoor, private & enterprise wireless Cloud cores, eSIM, tools & enablers URLLC, slicing, edge compute Allowing enterprises to build private networks, or new shared/neutral SPs
- 8. Spoiler: this isn’t actually a new idea Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019 2G > 3G Picocells New (local) spectrum models
- 9. New enterprise-centric spectrum models & bands Localised / indoors / near-term US CBRS (low power class A) MulteFire / 5G-U (no devices yet) 5GHz, 2.4GHz, 1.9GHz (Japan) UK proposed local 50m radius licenses at 1.8GHz / 2.3GHz mmWave Licensed, esp. 26 / 28 / 32 / 37 GHz Unlicensed 60GHz (Wi-Fi) Indoor unlicensed @26GHz etc 6GHz (probably unlicensed) Germany 3.7-3.8GHz (industrial) Macro / outdoor / longer term Utility / rail allocations <1GHz Dutch 3.5GHz France 2.6GHz (TETRA replacement) Japan mmWave / China etc UK (& maybe US) 3.8-4.2GHz Other Europe may follow Germany US CBRS high-power class B MNO 3/4/5G bands secondary use: 2.1GHz, 2.6GHz etc Secondary use as licence condition Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
- 10. Private cellular networks have a broad range of scales 50m 500m 5km 50km 500km Private / vertical network scale Office building Hotel Shopping mall Stadium Ships Warehouse / logistics Finance trading floor Inside data centres Hospital complex University campus Industrial plant Airport Port Theme park Business park Music festival Smart city Mining Oil & gas Military tactical Agricultural Rural neutral host County-level network Remote office / retail Rail network Highways Public safety Utility grid National wholesale High-frequency trading Potential number of networks per major country 1-1010-100100-10001000+ Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
- 11. Enterprise: multiple indoor use-cases, various requirements Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019 Public MNO indoor coverage (or offload) Use of DAS, small cells, WiFi for indoor coverage of MNO mobile broadband services Local / Guest IT LAN & Internet access Mostly Wi-Fi for accessing cloud/web/compute Local IoT (static) Various techs for sensors, other fixed IoT Mix of Wi-Fi, BT, LoRa, NBIoT etc Local IoT (mobile) Devices that move or need indoor/outdoor coverage Local OT (operational / critical / industrial) Very high reliability / low latency / deterministic Local voice / comms Walkie-talkies, 2-way radio etc Edge Also: Wide-Area Enterprise Wireless not covered here
- 12. Many “moving parts” for private/neutral 4G/5G networks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019 Shared, local & unlicensed Spectrum IoT / MVNO / MVNE platforms Small Cells, WiFi, cabling eSIM & RSP Backhaul / Transport Network Cloud OSS / BSS & edge- compute Number ranges & MNCs Roaming & Inter- connect Devices & chipsets Voice, PTT, video, messaging Physical design, integrate & build For example, how will realtime charging, bundled content, voice calls or network slicing work while a user roams onto a neutral host? NFV & SDN Content & app partners Core network (EPC or 5GC SA) Timing sync
- 13. Multiple architectures for private / telco & hybrid networks Source: 5G-ACIAUnknown: When is 5G Standalone New Core ready for enterprise deployment? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
- 14. Fully private cellular networks are not the only answer… Private Wi-Fi & LPWAN Enterprise- focused MVNO Enterprise own MVNO MNO custom network slice MNO 3rd party network slice SliceaaS Enterprise / vertical private core network 3rd-party Neutral Host mobile network Enterprise private mobile network Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019 Plus many hybrids & variations (eg spectrum / asset ownership, outsourcing) Voice / UC centric IoT centric Each enterprise model will have its own edge-compute approach
- 15. Wi-Fi Competitiveness Scorecard vs. alternative networks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019 ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal In-Home Office Public Industrial Outdoors & mobile Wi-Fi: whole home Wi-Fi: poor logonWi-Fi: easy logon Wi-Fi: single AP Wi-Fi: enterprise Wi-Fi: general Wi-Fi: safety critical Wi-Fi: limited 4G/5G flat-rate 4G flat-rate 4G metered 4G metered Fibre / Niche 4G private 4G MBB 4G NB-IoT Wired Ethernet Indoor 4G/5G Satellite ? Private 5G +TSN? 5G MBB
- 16. Many interpretations of “neutral host” Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019 Source: Telet Research Source: Dense Air Source: Dean Bubley Source: BT Wholesale Source: JMA
- 17. Possible Indoor / private cellular timelines 2019 • Big push by neutral host providers • Focus is building owners paying for multi- MNO indoor coverage • MNO spectrum • Some private LTE at industrial / outdoor sites • CBRS initial deployments & trials 2020 • CBRS starts in US, mix of MNOs for extra spectrum + some private • UK-style local licences begin adoption • Europe private 4G as pre- cursor to 5G • US 6GHz WiFi (& 5G??) 2021 • mmWave small cells maturing for MNOs • European industrial 5G eg Germany 3.7GHz (SA??) • New vertical MNOs emerge • Neutral CBRS in offices / hotels / MDUs • Growing “in a box” 4G / 5G options 2022 • Simpler self- install private 5G-U products emerge? • Europe adopts CBRS-type model? • 5G + MEC + slicing for enterprise networks? • Many unknowns Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019
- 18. 5G will drive transformation of telecom itself Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019 National MNO #1 National MNO #3 National MNO #4 TowerCo’s MVNOs Consolidated national MNOs National MNO #1 City MNO Hybrid MNO / MVNO Vertical / industrial MNO Transport MNO Military / Public Safety MNO National MNO Rural or indoor neutral host 4G-Era Mobile Operators 5G-Era Mobile Operators
- 20. www.deanbubley.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean https://www.linkedin.com/in/deanbubley/ https://soundcloud.com/user-521594836 information@disruptive-analysis.com Skype:disruptiveanalysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2019 Neutral Host Networks Public Workshop, London, Nov 21st