Business Forum: Nuclear & Renewable Energy - Yamani
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1. Saudi Arabia established the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy (K.A.CARE) to contribute to sustainable development through utilizing science, research, and industries related to atomic and renewable energy.
2. K.A.CARE's vision is to make atomic and renewable energy an integral part of Saudi Arabia's sustainable energy mix by leveraging relevant technologies for social and economic development.
3. Saudi Arabia needs to add more than 80 GW of electricity generation capacity by 2032 to meet projected growth in demand. K.A.CARE proposes a gradual introduction of nuclear and renewable sources like solar, wind and geothermal to replace some fossil fuel based generation.
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Business Forum: Nuclear & Renewable Energy - Yamani
1. Nuclear and Renewable Energy
Building Resources for the Future
Dr. Hashim Yamani
President
King Abdullah City for Atomic and
Renewable Energy (K.A.CARE)
4. K.A.CARE Mandate
The City shall aim at contributing
to the sustainable development in
the Kingdom through utilization of
science, research, and industries
related to atomic and renewable
energy for peaceful purposes in a
way that leads to raising the
standards of living and quality of
life in the Kingdom
3
5. Towards energy sustainability
The Kingdom of
The Kingdom of Energy
Sustainable Energy
Towards
greater
sustainability
A new energy mix to meet local needs as well as maintain
leadership role in the global energy landscape
4
6. A decision that was not taken lightly
Saudi Arabia has the world’s largest oil
reserves
Saudi Arabia has the 5th largest proven
gas reserves
Saudi Arabia has the world’s largest swing
capacity for oil production
Why is Saudi Arabia is promoting the introduction of
alternative energies?
5
7. Energy growth drivers
Population growth at an annual rate
of 3.2% (2004 – 2010)
Robust economic growth (4.3%
2008, 0.1% 2009, 3.8% 2010)
Industrial production growth of
3.1% in 2009
6
8. Projected growth in electricity peak demand
Electricity peak demand
GW
120
70
45
2010 2020 2030
At current pace, energy peak demand is expected to
exceed 120 GW by 2030
7
9. Growth in oil demand between 2007 and 2010
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
Saudi Arabia Asia North America Europe Middle East Latin America
8
10. Government allocation for water-related spending
50 9
45 8.5
40
8
35
30 7.5
(SR, bn)
25 7
20 (%)
6.5
15
6
10
5 5.5
0 5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Water, electricity and infrastructure allocation Ratio to total state budget
9
11. SEC planned retiring capacity
140,000
120,000
100,000
The Gap By
80,000 2030
MW
60,000
40,000
20,000 Today’s Fuel Mix
Extended to 2030
0
10
12. Forecast of energy demand growth
3.4* 8.3*
MBOE MBOE
2010
2028
At current pace, domestic consumption of fossil fuels is
expected to nearly triple by 2030
* Total local consumption (transportation, industry, electricity, etc) 11
13. Forecasted growth of alternative energy capacity worldwide
1,545 4.7
Growth
1,105 rate
533
2007 2020 2030
% Capacity 12% 17% 19%
% of Installed Capacity
12
14. K.A.CARE vision
The vision of K.A.CARE is to be:
the driving force for making atomic and
renewable energy an integral part of a
national sustainable energy mix, by
creating and leveraging the competitive
advantages of relevant technologies for
the social and economic development
of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
13
15. Gradual introduction of renewable and atomic energy
Nuclear
Renewables
Fossil
TWh
Alternative energy will gradually replace fossil based generation
14
16. Sustainable energy outlook for Saudi Arabia
Wind/Other Ren
Solar PV
Solar CST
Needed Capacity (MW)
Nuclear
New Required Fossil
New Committed
Existing Diesel
Existing HFO
Existing Crude
Existing Gas
2010 2020 2030 2050
15
17. The mandate and responsibilities of K.A.CARE
Policies &
Execution
Strategies
Investment
Regulatory & Business
R&D & Investment
Technology Relations
Human
Capacity
K.A.CARE’s Mandate Facilities
16
18. R&D&T
National legal
Framework
Pillars of sustainable development
Value Chain
National Economic
Framework
Sustainable Energy Mix
National HR
17
19. New implementation paradigm
1. Long Term Commitment from all Partners
Technology
Education / Training
2. Contribution to GDP Creation:
Job creation
Value chain development
Economic development spillovers
Electricity generation
18
20. Partnership with U.S. companies
• Expected major role for U.S. FDI in the Saudi
alternative energy sector:
• FDI in Saudi Arabia exceeds $200 billion
• U.S. has the lion share of this stock at 18%
• Expected outcome of partnership:
• Comprehensive value chain integration with
electricity generation
• Localization of niche products and services
• Seamless integration with international product
chains and global energy services
19
21. Reaping the fruits of sustainable development
Sustainable and efficient
energy future for KSA
Sustainable
alternative
“… use of alternative energy mix
sustainable and
reliable resources ...
reduces dependency
on hydrocarbon
resources … and keep Balanced
them as a source for execution
income for a longer plans
period of time...”
20
22. Bases for constructing recommended energy mix
• Peak demand reduction from energy efficiency and
conservation.
• Liquid fuel (crude oil, diesel, and HFO) that will be
saved by the proposed energy mix.
• Generation related matters, such as:
• load factors and load management
• generation technologies and their practical
limitations
• Human capacity building potential.
• International product chains and the Saudi role, in
the alternative energy sector.
• Local value chain
21
24. Typical daily demand profile variation for Saudi Arabia
Demand profile
GW
for a summer day
in August
GW
Demand profile
for a winter day
in January
11:00
13:00
15:00
17:00
19:00
21:00
23:00
1:00
3:00
5:00
7:00
9:00
23
25. GW
1
15
29
43
57
71
85
99
113
127
141
155
169
183
197
Annual day-night load variation for Saudi Arabia
211
225
239
253
Night
267
281
295
309
Day
323
337
351
24
365
27. Suitable technology choices for Saudi load profile
3 Fossil – solar
2 Solar - Fossil
Nuclear – geothermal (closed cycle) – Waste-to-
1
energy – Concentrated solar (storage) – Fossil
1
15
29
43
57
71
85
99
113
127
141
155
169
183
197
211
225
239
253
267
281
295
309
323
337
351
365
26
28. Criteria used to narrow down choices of energy mix
Plausible energy mix criteria:
• Sustainability
• Economic viability
• Technical feasibility
• Enabling of further development
Optimum energy mix criteria:
• Must deliver the required capacity both
cost-effectively and in a timely fashion
27
29. Illustrative example of a plausible energy mix
Wind /
Other Ren
Solar PV
Solar CST
Nuclear
New
Additional
Fossil
Present
Fossil
Mix
28
30. Comprehensive stakeholder engagement
Saudi Arabia:
• Government agencies, regulator and utility
• Private sector
International:
• Technology providers
• Project developers
• Utilities
Activities:
• Workshops, visits and meetings (hundreds)
• Case studies (hundreds)
29
31. Cost benefit analysis of proposed alternative energy mix
CAPEX plus OPEX
Additional Additional
capital Opex
cost Costs
30
32. Cost benefit analysis of proposed alternative energy mix
CAPEX plus OPEX plus
revenue from oil saved
Additional Additional Value of
capital Opex oil
cost Costs saved
31
33. Cost benefit analysis of proposed alternative energy mix
CAPEX plus OPEX plus
revenue from oil saved
plus investment in value
chain and human capacity
Industry
Additional Additional Value of and
capital Opex oil human
cost Costs saved capital
32
34. K.A.CARE commitment to developing alternative energy
1. Transparency
2. Safety and international best practices
3. Non-proliferation and highest standards of Safeguards
4. Localization of the nuclear and renewable value chain
in Saudi Arabia
5. Transparent Incentives, Off Taking, and Funding
Mechanism
33
35. Components of K.A.CARE City
The KA-CARE city will include the
following
▪ National Sustainable Energy
Laboratory
▪ Industrial clusters
▪ Alternative energy farm
▪ Energy park
▪ Technical training institutions
▪ Technical incubators
▪ Commercial facilities
▪ Convention centers, exhibition
halls and other public amenities
▪ KA-CARE headquarters and
residential facilities
▪ Basic infrastructure
34
39. First phase development plan for K.A.CARE City
3-5 year R&D focused develop-
City infrastructure
ment program for 8,000 to 10,000
requirements for Phase 1
residents (including 800 scientists)
1.5 GW of renewables
38
40. Summary
1. Saudi Arabia needs to add more than 80 GW of
generation capacity by 2032. The additional
capacity, anchored in energy conservation, would
include nuclear, and renewable capacity. The
investment required is in the hundreds of billion US
dollars.
2. Saudi Arabia has been a favorable destination of
U.S. FDI and exports, and we would certainly
encourage this trend to grow in the renewable and
nuclear energy sectors, as well as in energy
conservation, conventional energy and energy
support services.
39