The Flake Equation

((Panel consists of a large equation with call-out text indicating what each variable indicates)) P = Wp x (Cr + Mi) x Tk x F0 + F1 x Dt X Au ˜ 100,000 Wp (7,000,000,000) World Population Cr (1 10 000) Fraction of people who imagine an alien encounter because they're crazy or want to feel special Mi (1 10 000) Fraction of people who misinterpret a physical or physiological experience as an alien sighting Tk (1 10) Probability that they'll tell someone F0 (10) Average number of people they tell F1 (10) Average number of people each friend tells this "firsthand" account Dt (9 10) Probability that any details not fitting the narrative will be revised or forgotten in retelling Au (1 100) Fraction of people with the means and motivation to share the story with a wider audience (blogs, forums, reporters) Even with conservative guesses for the values of the variables, this suggests there must be a huge number of credible-sounding alien sightings out there, available to anyone who wants to believe! {{Title text: Statistics suggest that there should be tons of alien encounter stories, and in pracitce there are tons of alien encounter stories. This is known as Fermi's Lack-of-a-Paradox.}}

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