Assist. Prof. Dr. Oğuz Dilek is a member of the Department of International Relations at Zirve University. He gained an undergraduate degree, in 2003, from the Faculty of Political Science at University of Ankara. He completed a Master of Research (M.Res.) program at the University of Keele, in 2004, which took place within the first year of his Ph.D. program. He was eventually qualified for the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) by University of Keele, in England, in 2008, with his dissertation titled “The Political Economy of post-Cold War US Global Strategy in the ‘Greater’ Middle East.” Dr. Dilek started to teach in the department of International Relations at University of Çağ following the end of his military service, in 2010. Among the courses he has thus far thought, Comparative Politics, Introduction to Political Science, International Security, Introduction to International Relations, Research Methods and Political Leadership. His main areas of interest cover, International Political Economy, Energy Security, the Geopolitics of Eurasia and the Foreign Policy of Turkey.
Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO's new strategic concept decla... more Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO's new strategic concept declared during the Lisbon Summit (November 20, 2010). The resource nationalism and the energy terror, two underlying security menaces emanating from the New Energy Geopolitics, are believed to have prompted the Allies to device this (Seventh) Strategic Concept. Lisbon Summit to alleviate, if not remove, these security challenges tasked NATO with a set of duties. Turkey is a would-be fourth energy artery of Europe and a melting pot of these two energy related risks, thus, stands for an excellent litmus test for NATO's new energy role. However the Alliance could deliver a formidable contribution to Turkey's energy security under this double-barrelled challenge, the Turkish state's acute reliance on Russian energy wealth seems to greatly diminish the scope of such partnership.
Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO’s new strategic concept declared d... more Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO’s new strategic concept declared during the Lisbon Summit (November 20, 2010). This final strategic concept is to address two new sources of threat within the new energy geopolitics - ‘resource nationalism’ and ‘energy terrorism’ -which deeply concern those NATO members that require imported energy resources to meet their soaring domestic demand. Lisbon Summit to remove, if not alleviate, these security challenges tasked NATO with a set of specific roles. As a melting pot of the said two energy related risks, Turkey with its pledge to become the fourth energy artery of Europe will likely serve as a litmus test for NATO’s new energy role. To what extent NATO will contribute to Turkey’s energy security will depend on the degree to which Ankara will find conformity/coherence in between Turkey’s own energy security reliance on Russia and NATO’s possible demands sourcing from the Alliance’s new role conception (based around e...
With the re-orientation of the world economy and the rise of the rest, Turkey is more likely to b... more With the re-orientation of the world economy and the rise of the rest, Turkey is more likely to benefit from the international economic order. One possible actor Turkey may increase relations is Mongolia. In spite of long distance between two countries, common heritage and friendly diplomatic relations are the strengths in possible partnership. Located between two nuclear and major powers, Russia and China, Mongolia identifies Turkey as its third neighbor. This paper examines the relations between Turkey and Mongolia and reviews possible areas for furthering economic relations between two countries.
At a time of Arab uprisings, many set their eyes on Muslim populated Turkey with its successful e... more At a time of Arab uprisings, many set their eyes on Muslim populated Turkey with its successful economic development and nascent democratic political order, as what the peoples of the region can proceed along in their own transition to democracy. Nevertheless, to what extent Turkey's model will bear success in transforming the region into a 'positive peace'environment, to use the term of Johan Galtung, will highly rely on which of the following 'regional powerhood'Ankara will come to pursue: regionally detached, regional ...
In the post-American Iraqi energy conundrum, Turkey's foreign policy and energy strategy hav... more In the post-American Iraqi energy conundrum, Turkey's foreign policy and energy strategy have diverged. Ankara's energy interest is vested in the Kurdish north on the one hand, whereas due to its own Kurdish question and geopolitical competition with Iran, its conventional foreign policy favors a powerful center in Baghdad on the other. To further complicate matters, the Al-Maliki led Shiite Baghdad government's “omnibalancing” among various stake holders from domestic (Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds) and international (Iran, the ...
Arap Ayaklanmalari’nin ortaya ciktigi bir donemde, Musluman nufusu, basarili ekonomik kalkinmasi ... more Arap Ayaklanmalari’nin ortaya ciktigi bir donemde, Musluman nufusu, basarili ekonomik kalkinmasi ve olgunlasmakta olan demokratik duzeniyle, bolge halklarinin kendi demokratik gecis sureclerinde izinde ilerleyebilecekleri bir ulke olarak gozler Turkiye’ye cevrilmistir. Bununla beraber; Turkiye modelinin bolgeyi, Johan Galtung’un deyimiyle, bir ‘pozitif baris’ ortamina donusturmek noktasindaki basarisi, buyuk oranda Ankara’nin asagida belirtilen M. Pyrs’in ‘bolgesel aktorluk’ (regional powerhood) tipolojilerinden hangisini takip edecegine baglidir: bolgesel baglantisiz (detached), bolgesel egemen (dominant) veya bolgesel hegemon. Bu bilgiler isiginda, bu calisma Turkiye‘nin ancak dahili otoritenin demokratik yollarla tesisi durumunda uluslararasi itibar sahibi olup, bolgesel hegemon statusunu kazanacabilecegini tartismaktadir. Bu sartin gerceklesmesi durumunda Turkiye; Ortadogu ile Avrupa arasinda –demokrasi, insan haklari ve hukukun ustunlugu gibiyeni normatif baglar yaratma konusun...
Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO's new strategic concept decla... more Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO's new strategic concept declared during the Lisbon Summit (November 20, 2010). This final strategic concept is to address two new sources of threat within the new energy geopolitics-'resource nationalism'and 'energy terrorism'-which deeply concern those NATO members that require imported energy resources to meet their soaring domestic demand. Lisbon Summit to remove, if not alleviate, these security challenges tasked NATO with a set of specific roles. ...
Turkey has recently started to situate its security into a new geographical expanse with borders ... more Turkey has recently started to situate its security into a new geographical expanse with borders inching closer to the emerging China-centered world, and away from the European Peninsula. China by forming voluminous trade links with energy-rich Middle Eastern and Caucasian states has made the economic geography around Turkey’s borders appealing more than ever. Two outcomes lying face-to-face transpired from this new neighborhood. First, Turkey now enjoys an economic shelter that provides additional export outlets and foreign financial resources at a time of great distress in the West. Second, now Turkey’s material wellbeing is contingent on countries, such as Russia and Iran that squarely disagrees with some dimensions of Turkey’s identity, with democracy being one of them.
For much of the last two centuries, Turkey experienced a painful process of integration into the ... more For much of the last two centuries, Turkey experienced a painful process of integration into the West. It was almost always a personality split between Turks’ self-perception as a nation that for centuries guarded the gates of Islam against Europe and the pressing need for modernization, which, paradoxically, demanded an across-the-board Europeanization. Today, yet again, the earth is on the move with China’s rise. As a direct result, there have been perceptible displacements across the tectonic plates on which Turkey has maneuvered for the last two centuries. In the following decades, Turkey will continue to browse through these emerging fault lines to accomplish greater international prominence, but, perhaps, not without experiencing circumstances wherein its search for material gains is precluded by political dimensions.
Abstract A panoramic outlook on the present global system shows that the US has been failing to p... more Abstract A panoramic outlook on the present global system shows that the US has been failing to preserve its global preponderance against the rise of new contenders from Asia. Turkey's new foreign policy demeanor under the AKP government reflects this shift of global power from the West to the East, leaning on both of these two poles (especially Russia and the US), thereby, aims at creating a 'zero‐problem'situation with the neighboring Caucasian states. Yet, this strategy has not achieved its goal, mainly due to the ongoing debates, not ...
Many optimists believed that the “Arab Spring” was a ripe moment for regional radiant Turkey with... more Many optimists believed that the “Arab Spring” was a ripe moment for regional radiant Turkey with its pro-active stance that could trigger “demonstrative effect” and transform the conflict-ridden Middle Eastern (in) security complex into a pluralistic security community. However, those expectations on Turkey’s capabilities to transform the region have fallen short as Middle East re-entered into turmoil. In this light, the article aims to conduct an academic inquiry into the reasons that curtailed Turkey of priming the pump for a regional security community in the region. It argues that international system (structural), sub-systemic (regional), and finally that of agential factors (Turkey’s own domestic embodiment) hindered Turkey’s efforts to transform the Middle East into security community. It concludes that three main hindrances (that of systemic, sub-systemic and domestic) which altogether, but particularly the latter, render Turkey to fall short in restoring peace and stabilit...
The main purpose of this paper is to problematize whether a Middle Eastern Security Community has... more The main purpose of this paper is to problematize whether a Middle Eastern Security Community has ever gone further than a utopian mirage. Accordingly, it is inferred that a regional security community builds upon, at least, two antecedent conditions. The needed, but not sufficient precondition arrives when the peoples of a region re-imagine their security geography beyond its territorialisation among the scattered islands of nation states. Sufficient condition is then the presence of strong regional states with ideological appeal and material resources so as to build the first momentum towards a communal sense of security. This paper argues that the Arab Spring mostly met the first condition. The communal waves, at least briefly, united Arab people divided across the borders of multitude of states. But this short-lived ‘spring’ was not quite enough to forge a path from which the region could progress along the said direction. Whereas the classical cores of strength in the Arab world (Syria, Egypt and Iraq) are currently on the edge of an ultimate collapse; two non-Arab states (Israel and Iran) seem unwilling to cover this emergent power void.
A panoramic outlook on the present global system shows that the US has been failing to preserve i... more A panoramic outlook on the present global system shows that the US has been failing to preserve its global preponderance against the rise of new contenders from Asia.Turkey’s new foreign policy demeanor under the AKP government reflects this shift of global power from the West to the East, leaning on both of these two poles (especially Russia and the US), thereby, aims at creating a ‘zero-problem’ situation with the neighboring Caucasian states. Yet, this strategy has not achieved its goal, mainly due to the ongoing debates, not only between Moscow and Washington, but also between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Caucasian Regional Security Complexity. This work tries to read all these developments by applying insights from the neoclassical realist standing and argues that there are two main hindrances to the plan’s success: the dynamics of the current global system and the security complexity of the Caucasus region.
Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO's new strategic concept decla... more Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO's new strategic concept declared during the Lisbon Summit (November 20, 2010). The resource nationalism and the energy terror, two underlying security menaces emanating from the New Energy Geopolitics, are believed to have prompted the Allies to device this (Seventh) Strategic Concept. Lisbon Summit to alleviate, if not remove, these security challenges tasked NATO with a set of duties. Turkey is a would-be fourth energy artery of Europe and a melting pot of these two energy related risks, thus, stands for an excellent litmus test for NATO's new energy role. However the Alliance could deliver a formidable contribution to Turkey's energy security under this double-barrelled challenge, the Turkish state's acute reliance on Russian energy wealth seems to greatly diminish the scope of such partnership.
Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO’s new strategic concept declared d... more Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO’s new strategic concept declared during the Lisbon Summit (November 20, 2010). This final strategic concept is to address two new sources of threat within the new energy geopolitics - ‘resource nationalism’ and ‘energy terrorism’ -which deeply concern those NATO members that require imported energy resources to meet their soaring domestic demand. Lisbon Summit to remove, if not alleviate, these security challenges tasked NATO with a set of specific roles. As a melting pot of the said two energy related risks, Turkey with its pledge to become the fourth energy artery of Europe will likely serve as a litmus test for NATO’s new energy role. To what extent NATO will contribute to Turkey’s energy security will depend on the degree to which Ankara will find conformity/coherence in between Turkey’s own energy security reliance on Russia and NATO’s possible demands sourcing from the Alliance’s new role conception (based around e...
With the re-orientation of the world economy and the rise of the rest, Turkey is more likely to b... more With the re-orientation of the world economy and the rise of the rest, Turkey is more likely to benefit from the international economic order. One possible actor Turkey may increase relations is Mongolia. In spite of long distance between two countries, common heritage and friendly diplomatic relations are the strengths in possible partnership. Located between two nuclear and major powers, Russia and China, Mongolia identifies Turkey as its third neighbor. This paper examines the relations between Turkey and Mongolia and reviews possible areas for furthering economic relations between two countries.
At a time of Arab uprisings, many set their eyes on Muslim populated Turkey with its successful e... more At a time of Arab uprisings, many set their eyes on Muslim populated Turkey with its successful economic development and nascent democratic political order, as what the peoples of the region can proceed along in their own transition to democracy. Nevertheless, to what extent Turkey's model will bear success in transforming the region into a 'positive peace'environment, to use the term of Johan Galtung, will highly rely on which of the following 'regional powerhood'Ankara will come to pursue: regionally detached, regional ...
In the post-American Iraqi energy conundrum, Turkey's foreign policy and energy strategy hav... more In the post-American Iraqi energy conundrum, Turkey's foreign policy and energy strategy have diverged. Ankara's energy interest is vested in the Kurdish north on the one hand, whereas due to its own Kurdish question and geopolitical competition with Iran, its conventional foreign policy favors a powerful center in Baghdad on the other. To further complicate matters, the Al-Maliki led Shiite Baghdad government's “omnibalancing” among various stake holders from domestic (Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds) and international (Iran, the ...
Arap Ayaklanmalari’nin ortaya ciktigi bir donemde, Musluman nufusu, basarili ekonomik kalkinmasi ... more Arap Ayaklanmalari’nin ortaya ciktigi bir donemde, Musluman nufusu, basarili ekonomik kalkinmasi ve olgunlasmakta olan demokratik duzeniyle, bolge halklarinin kendi demokratik gecis sureclerinde izinde ilerleyebilecekleri bir ulke olarak gozler Turkiye’ye cevrilmistir. Bununla beraber; Turkiye modelinin bolgeyi, Johan Galtung’un deyimiyle, bir ‘pozitif baris’ ortamina donusturmek noktasindaki basarisi, buyuk oranda Ankara’nin asagida belirtilen M. Pyrs’in ‘bolgesel aktorluk’ (regional powerhood) tipolojilerinden hangisini takip edecegine baglidir: bolgesel baglantisiz (detached), bolgesel egemen (dominant) veya bolgesel hegemon. Bu bilgiler isiginda, bu calisma Turkiye‘nin ancak dahili otoritenin demokratik yollarla tesisi durumunda uluslararasi itibar sahibi olup, bolgesel hegemon statusunu kazanacabilecegini tartismaktadir. Bu sartin gerceklesmesi durumunda Turkiye; Ortadogu ile Avrupa arasinda –demokrasi, insan haklari ve hukukun ustunlugu gibiyeni normatif baglar yaratma konusun...
Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO's new strategic concept decla... more Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO's new strategic concept declared during the Lisbon Summit (November 20, 2010). This final strategic concept is to address two new sources of threat within the new energy geopolitics-'resource nationalism'and 'energy terrorism'-which deeply concern those NATO members that require imported energy resources to meet their soaring domestic demand. Lisbon Summit to remove, if not alleviate, these security challenges tasked NATO with a set of specific roles. ...
Turkey has recently started to situate its security into a new geographical expanse with borders ... more Turkey has recently started to situate its security into a new geographical expanse with borders inching closer to the emerging China-centered world, and away from the European Peninsula. China by forming voluminous trade links with energy-rich Middle Eastern and Caucasian states has made the economic geography around Turkey’s borders appealing more than ever. Two outcomes lying face-to-face transpired from this new neighborhood. First, Turkey now enjoys an economic shelter that provides additional export outlets and foreign financial resources at a time of great distress in the West. Second, now Turkey’s material wellbeing is contingent on countries, such as Russia and Iran that squarely disagrees with some dimensions of Turkey’s identity, with democracy being one of them.
For much of the last two centuries, Turkey experienced a painful process of integration into the ... more For much of the last two centuries, Turkey experienced a painful process of integration into the West. It was almost always a personality split between Turks’ self-perception as a nation that for centuries guarded the gates of Islam against Europe and the pressing need for modernization, which, paradoxically, demanded an across-the-board Europeanization. Today, yet again, the earth is on the move with China’s rise. As a direct result, there have been perceptible displacements across the tectonic plates on which Turkey has maneuvered for the last two centuries. In the following decades, Turkey will continue to browse through these emerging fault lines to accomplish greater international prominence, but, perhaps, not without experiencing circumstances wherein its search for material gains is precluded by political dimensions.
Abstract A panoramic outlook on the present global system shows that the US has been failing to p... more Abstract A panoramic outlook on the present global system shows that the US has been failing to preserve its global preponderance against the rise of new contenders from Asia. Turkey's new foreign policy demeanor under the AKP government reflects this shift of global power from the West to the East, leaning on both of these two poles (especially Russia and the US), thereby, aims at creating a 'zero‐problem'situation with the neighboring Caucasian states. Yet, this strategy has not achieved its goal, mainly due to the ongoing debates, not ...
Many optimists believed that the “Arab Spring” was a ripe moment for regional radiant Turkey with... more Many optimists believed that the “Arab Spring” was a ripe moment for regional radiant Turkey with its pro-active stance that could trigger “demonstrative effect” and transform the conflict-ridden Middle Eastern (in) security complex into a pluralistic security community. However, those expectations on Turkey’s capabilities to transform the region have fallen short as Middle East re-entered into turmoil. In this light, the article aims to conduct an academic inquiry into the reasons that curtailed Turkey of priming the pump for a regional security community in the region. It argues that international system (structural), sub-systemic (regional), and finally that of agential factors (Turkey’s own domestic embodiment) hindered Turkey’s efforts to transform the Middle East into security community. It concludes that three main hindrances (that of systemic, sub-systemic and domestic) which altogether, but particularly the latter, render Turkey to fall short in restoring peace and stabilit...
The main purpose of this paper is to problematize whether a Middle Eastern Security Community has... more The main purpose of this paper is to problematize whether a Middle Eastern Security Community has ever gone further than a utopian mirage. Accordingly, it is inferred that a regional security community builds upon, at least, two antecedent conditions. The needed, but not sufficient precondition arrives when the peoples of a region re-imagine their security geography beyond its territorialisation among the scattered islands of nation states. Sufficient condition is then the presence of strong regional states with ideological appeal and material resources so as to build the first momentum towards a communal sense of security. This paper argues that the Arab Spring mostly met the first condition. The communal waves, at least briefly, united Arab people divided across the borders of multitude of states. But this short-lived ‘spring’ was not quite enough to forge a path from which the region could progress along the said direction. Whereas the classical cores of strength in the Arab world (Syria, Egypt and Iraq) are currently on the edge of an ultimate collapse; two non-Arab states (Israel and Iran) seem unwilling to cover this emergent power void.
A panoramic outlook on the present global system shows that the US has been failing to preserve i... more A panoramic outlook on the present global system shows that the US has been failing to preserve its global preponderance against the rise of new contenders from Asia.Turkey’s new foreign policy demeanor under the AKP government reflects this shift of global power from the West to the East, leaning on both of these two poles (especially Russia and the US), thereby, aims at creating a ‘zero-problem’ situation with the neighboring Caucasian states. Yet, this strategy has not achieved its goal, mainly due to the ongoing debates, not only between Moscow and Washington, but also between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Caucasian Regional Security Complexity. This work tries to read all these developments by applying insights from the neoclassical realist standing and argues that there are two main hindrances to the plan’s success: the dynamics of the current global system and the security complexity of the Caucasus region.
Europe's geographical imagination perceives Turkey as significant but 'other'; to be held close, ... more Europe's geographical imagination perceives Turkey as significant but 'other'; to be held close, but kept distinctly separate. This derives not so much from the degree to which Turkey conforms to European norms, as from the perceived importance of Turkey to the health of the European security community. Without the insulation of Turkey, Europe would be forced into security codependence with the Middle East and Caucasus.
"Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO’s new strategic concept declared ... more "Energy-related issues gained a prominent place within the NATO’s new strategic concept declared during the Lisbon Summit (November 20, 2010). This final strategic concept is to address two new sources of threat within the new energy geopolitics - ‘resource nationalism’ and ‘energy terrorism’ - which deeply concern those NATO members that require imported energy resources to meet their soaring domestic demand. Lisbon Summit to remove, if not alleviate, these security challenges tasked NATO with a set of specific roles. As a melting pot of the said two energy related risks, Turkey with its pledge to become the fourth energy artery of Europe will likely serve as a litmus test for NATO’s new energy role. To what extent NATO will contribute to Turkey’s energy security will depend on the degree to which Ankara will find conformity/coherence in between Turkey’s own energy security reliance on Russia and NATO’s possible demands sourcing from the Alliance’s new role conception (based around energy). The prospect of such conformity/coherence matters for both the future terms of relations between the Alliance and Turkey and the relevance of NATO as a security providing organization within the upcoming decades. Especially, in a period of time when the Georgian War of 2008 still haunts the Wider Black Sea Region meanwhile the Arab ‘Spring’ further eclipses already weak stability within the Middle East.
Özet
Kasım 2010 tarihli Lizbon Zirvesinde, NATO enerji meselesini, ilk kez, öncelikli bir güvenlik sorunu olarak değerlendirmiştir. Bu zirvede kabul ettiği yeni strateji konseptiyle, İttifak ‘yeni enerji jeopolitiğinin’ iki temel kaygı unsuru olan ‘kaynak milliyetçiliğine’ ve ‘enerji terörizmine’, tüketici perspektifinden cevap vermeyi amaçlamıştır. Lizbon Zirvesi, NATO’ya bu türden tehdit unsurlarını giderecek, veya etkilerini azaltacak, bir takım roller yüklemiştir. İttifakın yeni rolündeki performans kıstası, Türkiye’nin enerji güvenliğine yapacağı katkıyla orantılıdır. Bunun nedeni, Türkiye bahsedilen her iki enerji tehdidinin erime potası konumundadır, dahası, Avrupa’nın dördüncü enerji arteri olma iddiasındadır. Bu katkının göreli büyüklüğünü tayin edecek faktörlerden birincisi İttifak-içi tartışmalardır. İkincisi ise Ankara’nın Rus enerji kaynaklarına bağımlı olan ulusal enerji güvenliği stratejisiyle NATO’nun yeni rolünün gerektirdiği öncelikler arasında ne derece özdeşlik bulacağıdır. Bu husus, daha geniş bir perspektiften alınırsa, 2008 Gürcistan Savaşı’nın jeopolitik hatlarını yeniden biçimlendirdiği Geniş Karadeniz Bölgesinde ve Arap ‘Baharının’ istikrarsızlaştırdığı Ortadoğu’da, gerek Türkiye ile İttifak arasındaki bağlaşıklığa gerekse de bizatihi NATO gibi güvenlik hizmeti veren bir kuruluşun geleceğine, büyük oranda, şekil verecektir."
ORTADOĞU ANALİZ (Middle Eastern Analysis), February 2013, Volume 5, No 50,pp.25-32
In the post-American Iraqi energy conundrum, Turkey’s foreign policy and energy strategy have d... more In the post-American Iraqi energy conundrum, Turkey’s foreign policy and energy strategy have diverged. Ankara’s energy interest is vested in the Kurdish north on the one hand, whereas due to its own Kurdish question and geopolitical competition with Iran, its conventional foreign policy favors a powerful center in Baghdad on the other. To further complicate matters, the Al-Maliki led Shiite Baghdad government’s “omnibalancing” among various stake holders from domestic (Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds) and international (Iran, the US, Turkey) domains, has placed restrictions on Turkey’s options. In this light, this paper argues that Turkey’s conventional foreign policy concerning Iraq is unsustainable, and thus should be revised in a way that conforms to its energy strategy.
expanding political clout of Iran is what presently sets Turkey and the GCC states on a course of... more expanding political clout of Iran is what presently sets Turkey and the GCC states on a course of forming a counter-veiling alliance. In its current form and shape, this alliance formation between the said parties mainly approximates the broad contours of a soft balancing. It is also tangential to this chapter’s main approach that the members of the GCC and Turkey due to three sets of reason may develop their current association into a more formalized and coordinated alliance structure, also underpinned by a certain degree of association in ideals and beliefs. The most important one of these three spontaneous developments should be the conversion of Iraq from a major Sunni power to that of a Shiite one with a welcoming posture towards Iran. This transformation did not only correct the regional balance of power to Iran’s favor, but also facilitated Tehran with new ways of influencing inner debates in Arab politics. Second, the US’ visible pullout from the regional domain instantly rendered both Turkey and the GCC states insecure about their regional stances, all the while allowing a larger maneuvering space for Iranian foreign policy. To this responded Turkey and the GCC by burgeoning their economic and security ties in a wide array of fields from circa 2003 to 2010. Finally, as third, Arab Spring is framed in this chapter as a Second Arab Cold War that will likely further define the line of separation between Iran-led Shiite bloc and the Turkish-the GCC partnership. Such is that it has created even more convenient opportunities for Iran to spread its ideological order. Arguably, the conservative regimes of the Gulf Region and Turkey will soon sense an even more urgent need to combine their forces to forestall the incursion of Iran into Arab politics in which both of them staked in massive economic and political capital. A synthesis of Constructivist and Realist theories of alliance formation will thereby constitute the analytical framework within which to discuss not only the root, but also the route of this unprecedented inter-state partnership.
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Papers by Oğuz DİLEK
Özet
Kasım 2010 tarihli Lizbon Zirvesinde, NATO enerji meselesini, ilk kez, öncelikli bir güvenlik sorunu olarak değerlendirmiştir. Bu zirvede kabul ettiği yeni strateji konseptiyle, İttifak ‘yeni enerji jeopolitiğinin’ iki temel kaygı unsuru olan ‘kaynak milliyetçiliğine’ ve ‘enerji terörizmine’, tüketici perspektifinden cevap vermeyi amaçlamıştır. Lizbon Zirvesi, NATO’ya bu türden tehdit unsurlarını giderecek, veya etkilerini azaltacak, bir takım roller yüklemiştir. İttifakın yeni rolündeki performans kıstası, Türkiye’nin enerji güvenliğine yapacağı katkıyla orantılıdır. Bunun nedeni, Türkiye bahsedilen her iki enerji tehdidinin erime potası konumundadır, dahası, Avrupa’nın dördüncü enerji arteri olma iddiasındadır. Bu katkının göreli büyüklüğünü tayin edecek faktörlerden birincisi İttifak-içi tartışmalardır. İkincisi ise Ankara’nın Rus enerji kaynaklarına bağımlı olan ulusal enerji güvenliği stratejisiyle NATO’nun yeni rolünün gerektirdiği öncelikler arasında ne derece özdeşlik bulacağıdır. Bu husus, daha geniş bir perspektiften alınırsa, 2008 Gürcistan Savaşı’nın jeopolitik hatlarını yeniden biçimlendirdiği Geniş Karadeniz Bölgesinde ve Arap ‘Baharının’ istikrarsızlaştırdığı Ortadoğu’da, gerek Türkiye ile İttifak arasındaki bağlaşıklığa gerekse de bizatihi NATO gibi güvenlik hizmeti veren bir kuruluşun geleceğine, büyük oranda, şekil verecektir."