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Economic Growth in Latin America and The Caribbean: Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts. (2004). Loayza, Norman ; Calderon, Cesar ; Fajnzylber, Pablo .
In: Working Papers Central Bank of Chile.
RePEc:chb:bcchwp:265.

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  21. The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America. (2007). Österholm, Pär ; Osterholm, Par ; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin.
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  27. Crisis de inflación y productividad total de los factores en Latinoamérica. (2006). Ramírez-Rondán, N.R. ; Aquino, Juan ; Rondan, Nelson Ramirez .
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    In: Working Papers Central Bank of Chile.
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  36. Regulation and macroeconomic performance. (2005). Servén, Luis ; Loayza, Norman ; Oviedo, Ana Maria.
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  40. Crisis de Inflación y Productividad Total de los Factores en Latinoamérica. (2005). Ramírez-Rondán, N.R. ; Aquino, Juan.
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  42. Mirando el Desarrollo Económico de Chile: Una Comparación Internacional. (2005). Mies, Verónica ; Fuentes, Rodrigo.
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    In: DEGIT Conference Papers.
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  45. Why are Capital Flows so Much More Volatile in Emerging Than in Developed Countries?. (2005). Rigobon, Roberto ; Broner, Fernando.
    In: Working Papers Central Bank of Chile.
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  46. Mirando el Desarrollo Económico de Chile: Una Comparación Internacional. (2005). Mies, Verónica ; Fuentes, Rodrigo.
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  47. The Macroeconomics of Poverty Reduction. (2004). Agénor, Pierre-Richard.
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  48. Time series evidence on education and growth: the case of Guatemala, 1951-2002. (2004). Loening, Josef.
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  49. The Impact of International Trade Flows on Economic Growth in Brazilian States. (1989). Daumal, Marie ; Ozyurt, Selin .
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References

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  2. All LAC Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Ecuador Mexico Peru Venezuela Source: WDI and Authors' calculations Figure I.3a: Growth Rates of GDP per Capita, by Country, 1961-2000 South Cone Countries -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
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  64. Corden, W. (1990). “Macroeconomic Policy and Growth: Some Lessons of Experience.” World Bank Conference on Development Economics.
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  65. Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 Source: WDI and Authors' calculations Figure I.3f: Growth Rates of GDP per Capita, by Country, 1961-2000 Caribbean - Small Island Countries -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
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  66. Cyclical volatility computed from actual values and forecasts of output gap estimates for 2001-2005. Output gap for the 2003-2005 period projected using Consensus Forecasts or IMF forecasts for GDP growth and applying the Baxter-King filter to those forecasts. For 2006-2010 projected using a panel data estimation considering the first lag of the variable and fixed effects for each country.
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  67. De Gregorio and Lee (1999) 81 Countries (21 LAC). 1965-95 (10 year averages) Panel Data. Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) and 3SLS.
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  68. De Gregorio and Lee (2003) 85 Countries (21 LAC). 1970-00 (5-year averages) Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) Blyde and Fernández-Arias (2004) 73 Countries (20 LAC). 1970-99 (5-year averages) Panel Data. Instrumental Variables (IV) with Fixed Effects.
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  69. De Gregorio, J. and C. Bravo-Ortega (2002). “The Relative Richness of the Poor? 60 Natural Resources, Human Capital and Economic Growth.” Central Bank of Chile Working Paper Series No. 139.

  70. De Gregorio, J. and J.-W. Lee (1999). “Economic Growth in Latin America: Sources and Prospects.” Universidad de Chile, Mimeo, December.
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  71. De Gregorio, J. and J.-W. Lee (2003). “Growth and Adjustment in East Asia and Latin America.” Central Bank of Chile Working Paper 245, December.
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  72. Dohse, D. (1996). “The Transmission of Knowledge Spillovers and its Impact on Regional Economic Growth.” Institut Fur Weltwirtschaft An Der Universitat. Kiel Working Papers No.774: 1-27.

  73. Dollar D. and A. Kraay (2002). “Growth is Good for the Poor.” Journal of Economic Growth 7(3): 195-225.

  74. Dollar, D. (1992). “Outward-oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 40: 523-44.

  75. Domestic Capital Stock (in 1987 US$ dollars) adjusted for capacity utilization. Domestic Capital Stock adjusted for capacity utilization, which is assumed equal to one minus the unemployment rate.
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  76. Dougherty, C. (1991). A Comparison of Productivity and Economic Growth in the G-7 Countries. Ph.D. Dissertation, Harvard University.
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  77. DTBC-264 Chile’s Free Trade Agreements: How Big is The Deal? Rómulo A. Chumacero, Rodrigo Fuentes y Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel Junio 2004 DTBC-263 Labor Market Rigidity and Structural Shocks: An Open-Economy Approach for International Comparisons Elías Albagli, Pablo García y Jorge Restrepo Mayo 2004 DTBC-262 Monetarismo más allá del M1A Pablo García y Rodrigo O. Valdés Mayo 2004 DTBC-261 Dedollarization, Indexation and Nominalization: The Chilean Experience Luis Oscar Herrera y Rodrigo O. Valdés Mayo 2004 DTBC-260 Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales with Automated Procedures Rómulo Chumacero Mayo 2004 DTBC-259 Evaluating the Chilean Government’s Debt Denomination Elías Albagli Mayo 2004 DTBC-258 Desempleo y Consumo en Chile Claudio Soto Mayo DTBC-257 Función de Ingresos de los Hogares Chilenos: Ciclo de Vida y Persistencia de Shocks en el Tiempo Paulina Granados Z.

  78. East Asia and Pacific Eastern Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Industrial Countries South Asia Sub Saharan Africa All 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 Figure I.5: Volatility of GDP per capita, GDP-Weighted Average by Regions, 1961-2000 (constant sample) 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 East Asia and Pacific Eastern Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Industrial Countries South Asia Sub Saharan Africa All 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 Notes: The median country for 1961-70 is Peru, for 71-80 is Honduras, for 81-90 is Brazil and for 91-2000 is Mexico.
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  79. Easterly (2001). Systemic Banking Crises Number of years in which a country underwent a systemic banking crisis, as a fraction of the number of years in the corresponding period.
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  80. Easterly, Loayza and Montiel (1997) 70 Countries (16 LAC). 1960-93 (5-year averages, except last one) GMM-Difference Estimator (Arellano and Bond, 1991).
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  81. Easterly, W. (1999). “Life During Growth: International Evidence on Quality of Life and Per Capita Income.” World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 2110.

  82. Easterly, W. (2001). “Growth Implosions, Debt Explosions, and My Aunt Marilyn: Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises? ” World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 2531.

  83. Easterly, W. and R. Levine (2001). “It’s Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models.” The World Bank Economic Review15(2): 177-219.
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  84. Easterly, W. and R. Levine (2002). “Tropics, Germs, and Crops: How Endowments Influence Economic Development.” University of Minnesota. Mimeograph. 61 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Macroeconomic Database, available on line at http://www.eclac.org/estadisticas/.

  85. Easterly, W., M. Kremer, L. Pritchett, and L. Summers (1993). “Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks.” Journal of Monetary Economics Vol. 32.

  86. Easterly. W. and S. Rebelo (1993). “Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: an Empirical Investigation.” Journal of Monetary Economics 32(3): 417-58.

  87. Eicher, T. (1999). “Trade Development and Converging Growth Rates: Dynamics Gains from Trade Reconsidered.” Journal of International Economics 48, No. 1:179-198.

  88. Elias. V. (1992). Sources of Growth: A Study of Seven Latin American Economies. San Francisco: ICS Press.
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  89. Engen, E. and J. Skinner (1996). “Taxation and Economic Growth.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No.W5826.
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  90. Fatás, A. (2000a). “Endogenous Growth and Stochastic Trends.” Journal of Monetary Economics 45, 107-128.

  91. Fatás, A. (2000b). “Do Business Cycles Cast Long Shadows? Short-run Persistence and Economic Growth.” Journal of Economic Growth 5, 147-162.
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  92. Fatás, A. (2001). “The Effects of Business Cycles on Growth.” Unpublished manuscript. INSEAD.
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  93. Fatás, A. (2002). “The Effects of Business Cycles on Growth.” Central Bank of Chile Working Paper No. 156, May.
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  94. Fernández-Arias and Montiel (2001) 69 Countries (18 LAC). 1961-95 (5-year averages) Panel Data. Instrumental Variables (IV) with Random Effects.
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  95. Fernández-Arias, E. and P. Montiel (2001). “Reform and Growth: All Pain, No Gain?” IMF Staff Papers 48: 522-546.
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  96. Financial Depth Projected for 2001-2010 using OLS regression models incorporating (linear or quadratic) trends, a convergence effect, and ARMA terms. The inclusion criterion was (i) to increase the fit of equation and (ii) to generate plausible values for the projected variable.
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  97. Fischer, S. (1993). “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth.” Journal of Monetary Economics 32(3): 485-511.

  98. Gallego, F. and N. Loayza (2002). “The Golden Period for Growth in Chile. Explanations and Forecasts.” in Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edited by N. Loayza and R. Soto. Santiago, Chile: Central Bank of Chile.

  99. Ghosh, A.R. (1995). “International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialized Countries: Too Little or Too Much?” The Economic Journal 105: 107-128.

  100. Ghosh, A.R., and J. D. Ostry (1995). “The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach.” The World Bank Economic Review 9: 305-333.
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  101. Government Burden Projected for 2000-2010 using OLS regression models incorporating (linear or quadratic) trends and ARMA terms. The inclusion criterion was (i) to increase the fit of equation and (ii) to generate plausible values for the projected variable.
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  102. Government Burden Ratio of government consumption to GDP. The World Bank (2002). Public Infrastructure Telephone mainlines are telephone lines connecting a customer's equipment to the public switched telephone network. Data are presented per 1,000 population for the entire country.
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  103. Griliches, Z. and J. Hausman. (1986). “Errors in Variables in Panel Data”. Journal of Econometrics 31(1): 93-118. 62 Helliwell, J. and A. Chung (1990). “Macroeconomic Convergence: International Transmission of Growth and Technical Progress.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No.W3264.
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  104. Gross Domestic Saving (% of GDP) Ratio of Gross Domestic Saving to GDP. The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  105. Growth Log difference of real GDP per capita. Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
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  106. Growth rate of GDP per capita 0.0148 0.0263 -0.1073 0.0857 0.0142 0.0224 -0.0784 0.0749 Initial GDP per capita (in logs) 8.1553 0.9871 5.9225 9.8279 8.1058 0.9431 6.1592 9.7251 Initial output gap (in logs) -0.0007 0.0247 -0.1246 0.0668 -0.0034 0.0297 -0.1650 0.0528 Secondary enrollment (in logs) 3.9255 0.6734 1.2042 5.0294 3.9076 0.6753 1.0869 4.9289 Private domestic credit/GDP (in logs) -1.1631 0.9104 -5.6893 0.7345 -1.1528 0.8454 -4.1289 0.7090 Structure-adjusted trade volume/GDP (in logs) 0.0369 0.4455 -1.6896 1.3629 0.0278 0.4472 -1.5450 1.2887 Government consumption /GDP (in logs) -1.9355 0.3703 -3.1305 -0.9681 -1.9374 0.3708 -3.1781 -0.9722 Main telephone lines per capita (in logs) 3.8887 1.8291 -0.1576 6.5271 3.8287 1.8167 -0.2070 6.5244 1st principal component of ICRG indicators 0.5529 1.8510 -3.2562 3.4684 0.5201 1.8291 -3.2562 3.4684 Inflation (in log [100+inf. rate]) 4.7905 0.4047 4.5749 8.7974 4.8142 0.4218 4.6151 7.8395 Std.
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  107. Hnatkovska, V. and N. Loayza (2004). “Volatility and Growth.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3184.
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  108. Holtz-Eakin, D., W. Newey, and H. S. Rosen (1988). “Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data.” Econometrica 56:1371-1395. International Currency Analysis, Inc. World Currency Yearbook, Brooklyn, NY: International Currency Analysis, Inc. Various Issues.
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  109. Human Capital Authors' calculations using data from Barro and Lee (2000) and Psacharopoulos (1994) Unemployment Rate National Bureau of Statistics, Venezuela Employment National Bureau of Statistics, Venezuela Worked Hours Splicing using series from Maddison (1995) and authors' estimations using information on unemploment rate and per-capita GDP Capital Share Bernanke and Gurkaynak (2001) Growth Rates Appendix B Definitions and Sources of Variables Used in Regression Analysis Variable Definition and Construction Source 1. Growth Accounting Output Level Ratio of total GDP to total population. GDP is in 1985 PPP-adjusted US$.

  110. Inflation For countries with inflation targets, central bank targets were used as the projections for the 2006-2010, private forecasts from Consensus Forecasts for the 2004-2005 period, and actual values for the 2000-2003 period.
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  111. Initial per capita GDP Ratio of total GDP to total population in 2000 from the World Development Indicators . For 2005, projected value using the estimated growth rate during 2001-2005 and the initial per capita GDP in 2000. Estimated growth rates come from the projections of growth determinants for 2001-2005 and the panel data models previously presented.
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  112. International Labor Organization. “LABORSTAT.” http://laborsta.ilo.org/ International Monetary Fund (2002). World Economic Outlook, Washington, DC.
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  113. Investment (% of GDP) Ratio of Gross Domestic Investment (in 1995 US$) to GDP (in 1995 US$).
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  114. Keller, W. (2001). “International Technology Diffusion.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. W8573.
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  115. King, R. G. and R. Levine (1994). “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 108(3): 717-37 King, R. G. and R. Levine (1994). “Capital Fundamentalism, Economic Development, and Economic Growth.” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy V. 40: 259-92.

  116. Klenow, P. J. and A. Rodriguez-Clare (1997). “The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone too Far?” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997: 93-103 Knack, S., and P. Keefer (1995). “Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures.” Economic and Politics 7(3): 207-27.

  117. Knight, M., N. Loayza, and D. Villanueva (1993). “Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach.” International Monetary Fund, Staff Papers 40:51241.

  118. Kraay, A. and J. Ventura (2000). Current Accounts in Debtor and Creditor Countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics 115(4): 1137-66. 63 Kydland, F. E. and C. Zarazaga (2001) Argentina's Lost Decade. CLAE Working Paper No. 0401, August.

  119. Lederman, D. (1996). “The Sources of Economic Growth: A Survey from a Latin America Perspective.” Office of the Chief Economist of Latin America and the Caribbean Region, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Mimeograph.
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  120. Levine, R. (1997). “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda.” Journal of Economic Literature 35 (2): 688-726.

  121. Levine, R., N. Loayza, and T. Beck (2000). “Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes.” Journal of Monetary Economics 46, No.1: 31-77.

  122. Lipsey, R., and I. Kravis (1987). Saving and Economic Growth: Is the United States Really Falling Behind? New York, The Conference Board.
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  123. Loayza, N. (1996). “The Economics of the Informal Sector: A Simple Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Latin America.” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 45.

  124. Loayza, N. and L. Palacios (1997). “Economic Reform and Progress in Latin America and the Caribbean.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 1829. Washington, D. C.
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  125. Lucas, R. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics 22:3-42.

  126. Maddison, A. (1995). Monitoring the World Economy: 1820-1992. Development Centre Studies. Paris and Washington, D.C.: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
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  127. Mauro, P. (1995). “Corruption and Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110: 681-712.

  128. Miller, S. and M. Upadhyay (2000). “The Effects of Openness, Trade Orientation and Human Capital on Total Factor Productivity.” Journal of Development Economics Vol. 63 No. 2: 399423.

  129. Mincer, J. (1981). “Human capital and Economic Growth.” Economics of Education Review 3(3): 195-205.

  130. Number of people actually working, adjusted for the average years of primary, secondary and tertiary schooling in the population, using the rates of social returns to education calculated by Psacharopoulos (1995), and for the average numbers of hours actually worked.
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  131. Olofsdotter, K. (1998). “Foreign Direct Investment, Country Capabilities and Economic Growth.” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv Vol. 134 (3).

  132. Otani, I, and D. Villanueva (1990). “Long-term Growth in Developing Countries and Its Determinants: An Empirical Analysis.” World Development 18(6): 769-83.
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  133. Physical and Human Capital Domestic Capital Stock (in 1987 US$ dollars) Data until 1990 from Nehru and Dareshwar (1993), updated with WDI data, using perpetual inventory method, and assuming a 4% depreciation rate.
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  134. Pritchett, L. (1996). “Measuring Outward Orientation in LDCs: Can It Be Done?” Journal of Development Economics 49(2):307-35.

  135. Pritchett, L. (2001). “Where Has All the Education Gone?” World Bank Economic Review, V15, No. 3: 367-391.
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  136. Projected for 2006-2010 (2005-2010) for countries with available Consensus Forecasts or IMF forecasts for 2004-2005 (2004) using OLS regression models incorporating (linear or quadratic) trends, a convergence term to annual inflation of 3%, and ARMA terms. The inclusion criterion was (i) to increase the fit of equation and (ii) to generate plausible values for the projected variable.
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  137. Psacharopoulos, G. (1994). Returns to Investment in Education: A Global Update. World Development v22, n9: 1325-43 Romer, P. (1989). “Capital Accumulation in the Theory of Long-run Growth.” in Modern Business Cycle Theory, edited by R. Barro. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.

  138. Public Infrastructure Projected for 2003-2010 using OLS regression models incorporating (linear or quadratic) trends, a convergence effect, and ARMA terms. The inclusion criterion was (i) to increase the fit of equation and (ii) to generate plausible values for the projected variable.
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  139. Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation Projected for 2000-2010 using OLS regression models incorporating (linear or quadratic) trends, the lagged difference between the index and the equilibrium level, and ARMA terms. The inclusion criterion was (i) to increase the fit of equation and (ii) to generate plausible values for the projected variable.
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  140. Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation Real effective exchange rate, with the level adjusted such that the average for 1976-85 equals Dollar’s (1992) index of overvaluation (based on the ratio of actual to incomeadjusted Summers-Heston purchasing power parity comparisons).
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  141. Shea, J. (1998). “What Do Technology Shocks Do?” National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual 1998, 275-321.

  142. Source: Authors' calculations External Conditions Countries Structural Policies Stabilization Policies Growth Rate 1991-1999 Potential Change Contributions to Potential Improvement in the Growth Rate Transitional Convergence Source: WDI and Authors' calculations Source: WDI and Authors' calculations Figure I.1: Growth Rates of GDP per Capita, GDP-Weighted Average by Regions, 1961-2000 (constant sample) -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
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  143. Source: Authors' calculations Figure I.6: Simple Growth Decomposition Median Country by Decade -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 GDP growth Labor Capital Total Factor Productivity (TFP 1) Figure I.7: Growth Decomposition Adjusted for Human Capital Median Country by Decade -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 GDP growth Labor Capital Total Factor Productivity (TFP 2) Figure I.8: Growth Decomposition Adj. for Human Capital and Input Utilization Median Country by Decade -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 GDP growth Labor Capital Total Factor Productivity (TFP 3) Source: Authors' calculations Source: Authors' calculations Figure II.1: Explaining Changes in Growth Between the 1980s - 1990s Selected Latin American Countries -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
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  144. Sources GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
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  145. Sources GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
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  146. Sources GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  147. Sources GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  148. Sources GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  149. Sources GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
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  150. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  151. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  152. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  153. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  154. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  155. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  156. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  157. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  158. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  159. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  160. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  161. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  162. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  163. Sources: GDP Authors' construction using Summers and Heston (1991) and The World Bank (2002).
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  164. Summers, R. and A. Heston (1991). “The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(2): 327-68.

  165. Systemic Banking Crises Computed for 2000-2003 using the criterion defined in Caprio and Klingebiel (1999), and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1998). For 2004-2010 projected using a panel data model including the level of real exchange rate overvaluation and lagged presence of crisis as explanatory variables. The inclusion criterion was (i) to increase the fit of equation and (ii) to generate plausible values for the projected variable.

  166. Terms of trade shocks Computed using the projected of the level of terms of trade for 2000-2010 using OLS regression models incorporating ARMA terms. The inclusion criterion was (i) to increase the fit of equation and (ii) to generate plausible values for the projected variable. Initial Output Gap and Cyclical Volatility Initial output gap computed using the Baxter-King filter.
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  167. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  168. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  169. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  170. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  171. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  172. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  173. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  174. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  175. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  176. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  177. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  178. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  179. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  180. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  181. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  182. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  183. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  184. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  185. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  186. The social returns to education are obtained from Psacharopoulos (1994). The categories and their respective returns are: No Education (benchmark) = 1, Incomplete Primary Education = 1.68, Complete Primary Education = 2.69, Incomplete Secondary Education = 3.91, Complete Secondary Education = 5.53, Incomplete College Education = 5.87, Complete College Education = 8.80. 2. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital (HL) = Labor * H. 3. Labor Adjusted for Human Capital and Employment = HL * (1- Unemployment rate) * Participation Rate * Worked Hours. 4. Physical Capital Adjusted for Utilization = Physical Capital * (1-Unemployment Rate).
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  187. The World Bank (2000) World Development Indicators. Period-specific Shifts Time dummy variables. Authors’ construction.
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  188. The World Bank (2002). Cyclical Volatility Standard deviation of the output gap for the period. Author’s calculations.
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  190. Trade Openness Projected for 2001-2010 using OLS regression models incorporating (linear or quadratic) trends, a convergence effect, and ARMA terms. The inclusion criterion was (i) to increase the fit of equation and (ii) to generate plausible values for the projected variable.
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  191. Trade Openness Residual of a regression of the log of the ratio of exports and imports (in 1995 US$) to GDP (in 1995 US$), on the logs of area and population, and dummies for oil exporting and for landlocked countries.
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  192. Transitional Convergence Initial GDP Per Capita Initial value of ratio of total GDP to total population. GDP is in 1985 PPP-adjusted US$.
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  193. Turnovsky, S. (2000). “Growth in an Open Economy: Some Recent Developments”. Manuscript, University of Washington.

  194. Working-age population (aged 15 to 64), adjusted for the average years of primary, secondary and tertiary schooling in the population, using the rates of social returns to education calculated by Psacharopoulos (1995).
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  195. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  196. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  197. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  198. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  199. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  200. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  201. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  202. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  203. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  204. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  205. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  206. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  207. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  208. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  209. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  210. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  211. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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  212. Working-Age Population WDI Capital Authors' construction using Nehru and Dareshwar (1993) and The World Bank (2002).
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