- 2. Socio-Demographic Variables There are two main sources of information for socio-demographic variables (including immigration variables) which are available at the LA level for the period under study: the Population Census and the Annual Population Survey (APS). In the case of the Census we can get the data for the 348 spatial units of our panel. In the APS we do not have data for the least populated LA (Isles of Scilly, which has a population of only 2,203 usual residents according to the 2011 Census). Consequently the main analysis for England and Wales is carried out for 347 comparable spatial units. For London the 33 boroughs are consistently defined over time.
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- 4. Construction of Instrumental Variables 4.1. Change in Immigrant Share Instruments To predict the change in the share of immigrants for the 2001-2011 period we use the Census immigrant count by country of birth of each of the 17 country/region groups previously defined, calculate their distribution across the 347 spatial units in 2001 and multiply each distribution by the 2001-2011 inflow of immigrants to the UK from the respective country. We divide the predicted inflow by the 2001 population. Then we add up the normalized predicted inflow of the 17 groups to instrument the actual change in immigrant share per spatial unit.
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- 4.2. Lagged Change in Crime/Burglaries To predict the change in Change in Crime/Burglary Rate, 2002-2004 we use the Crime or Burglary Rate in 2002. We first scale the change in the Crime/Burglary Rate 2002-2004 to make it comparable to the 6 year period we analyse, by multiplying it by three. Then, we use the Crime or Burglary Rate (in levels) in 2002 as the instrument.
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- Altonji, J. and D. Card (1991) The Effects of Immigration on the Labor Market Outcomes of Less-Skilled Natives, in John Abowd and Richard Freeman (eds.), Immigration, Trade and the Labor Market, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 201â234.
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Barrett, A. and Y. McCarthy (2008) Immigrants and Welfare Programmes: Exploring the Interactions Between Immigrant Characteristics, Immigrant Welfare Dependence and Welfare Policy, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24, 542-59.
- Before 2009 there were 376 LAs in England and Wales: 33 London Boroughs, 36 Metropolitan Districts and 238 Districts in England and 22 Unitary Authorities in Wales. In April 2009 an administrative reform took place which reshaped the existing configuration of the LAs.
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- Bell, B. and S. Machin (2013) Crime and Immigration. What do we Know?, in P. Cook, S. Machin, O. Marie and G. Mastrobuoni (eds.) What Works in Reducing Offending? Lessons From the Economics of Crime, MIT Press, forthcoming.
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Bell, B., F. Fasani and S. Machin (2013) Crime and Immigration: Evidence from Large Immigrant Waves, Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
Bianchi, M., P. Buonanno and P. Pinotti. (2012) Do Immigrants Cause Crime?, Journal of the European Economic Association, 10, 1318â1347.
- Borjas, G. (1999) The Economic Analysis of Immigration, Chapter 28 in O. Ashenfelter and D. Card (eds), Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. 3, Amsterdam: North Holland, 17611800.
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Borjas, G. and L. Hilton (1996) Immigration and the Welfare State: Immigrant Participation in Means-Tested Entitlement Programs, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111, 575â604.
Card, D. (2001) Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Market Impacts of Higher Immigration, Journal of Labor Economics, 19, 22-64.
Card, D. (2005) Is The New Immigration Really So Bad?, Economic Journal, 115, F300-F323.
Card, D. (2009) Immigration and Inequality, American Economic Review, 99, 1-21.
- Change in Crime Per 1000 Population 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 Change in Immigrant Population Ratio Slope (SE) = -0.278 (0.038) England and Wales -.2 -.15 -.1 -.05 0
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Dustmann, C., T. Frattini and I. Preston (2013) The Effect of Immigration along the Distribution of Wages, Review of Economic Studies, 80, 145-173.
- In that occasion new LAs were created: five counties were abolished and gained district functions (Cornwall, County Durham, Northumberland, Shropshire and Wiltshire), the county of Bedfordshire was split into two LAs and the county of Cheshire was as well abolished and split into two LAs. Taking into account these changes to be able to employ pre and post 2009 datasets we constructed 348 spatial units that are comparable over time.
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- ONS, Office for National Statistics (2013) Detailed Country of Birth and Nationality Analysis From the 2011 Census of England and Wales, 2011 Census, Detailed Characteristics for Local Authorities in England and Wales Release, London: Home Office.
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- Regarding police forces, not all of them adopted the NCRS at the same time. There were a few 'early adopters', Avon and Somerset, Lancashire, Staffordshire, and West Midlands, (where 39 LAs are located) that by 2002/2003 were already following the NCRS guidelines. The rest of the 45 police forces adapted their recording practices during the first year (Simmons, Legg and Hosking, 2003). Thus, the crime count in 2002/2003 is also not completely unaffected by the change.
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- Sa, F. (2011) Immigration and House Prices in the UK, IZA Discussion Paper 5893.
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Saiz, A. (2007) Immigration and Housing Rents in American Cities, Journal of Urban Economics, 61, 345-71.
- Simmons, J., C. Legg. and R. Hosking (2003) National Crime Recording Standard (NCRS): an Analysis of the Impact on Recorded Crime. Companion Volume to Crime in England and Wales 2002/2003. Home Office Online reports 31/03 and 32/03. London: Home Office. 19 Spenkuch, J. (2011) Understanding the Impact of Immigration on Crime, MPRA Paper No. 31171, Munich: University Library of Munich.
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- The Census data provide information on the stock of migrants in the UK, including separate estimates for some countries of origin. The APS contains the same country of birth variable, covering a representative sample of the population but providing a more extensive classification of country of birth (around 100 categories until 2006 and around 200 categories for the following years after a change in the coding of country of birth).
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- The new variables related to immigration status in the 2011 Census are 'national identity' and 'passport held'. A persons' national identity is a self-determined assessment of their own identity with respect to the country or countries with which they feel an affiliation. This assessment of identity is not dependent on legal nationality or ethnic group. And the options to answer this question in the Census are the countries within UK, Ireland or other national identity.
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- To predict the change in the share of immigrants for the 2004/5-2010/11 we use the APS country of birth variable and follow a similar procedure as for the inter-Census period. The only difference is that we take as reference distribution, that of the average between 2004/5 and 2005/6 waves to increase precision as the data comes from a sample of households, unlike the Census. The A8 and non-A8 IV is constructed in the same way, but only using the relevant groups for each case from the 17 categories.
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- Unfortunately the APS is the only source providing the nationality variable over time. In the Census only country of birth was present until 2011 when other related questions were introduced.
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- We are also able to predict the change in the share of immigrants defined by their nationality for the 2004/5-2010/11 period using the APS dataset. To do so, we replicate the same procedure as 47 for country of birth, but take the immigrant original distribution and inflows according to their nationalities. We use the same 17 country/region groups as for the case of country of birth. We also include in the IV prediction equation an additional dummy variable for whether areas historically had a high immigration share, defined as 20 percent or over in the 1991 Census.
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- We split the immigrant population in groups that could be tracked both for the Census and APS over time. In the case of the Census, the detailed country of birth was not always available in the standard country of birth tables and we had to use also previously commissioned tables, for example for the A8 immigrant population in 2001.
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