Andrew Toedjono

This paper aims to give the explanations of the linkages and integration of Bond markets in ASEAN with ASEAN-5 representatives (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines), China, Japan and United States. Using dynamic vector autoregressive model, the result shows  correlations and causalities of bond's return in ASEAN, China, Japan and United States. Nevertheless, the impulse response functions show the effect of shocks on the adjustment path of the variables maximum in 10 days. Based on this research, the findings are utmost important for trader not investor on asset diversification. Because the integration and linkages on bond markets exist based on the finding above, it also has a potential effect to harm the financial stability, especially in ASEAN emerging countries.

This paper aims to give the explanations about the financial stability from various economic papers and articles. Financial stability is a broad concept and considered as a continuum so writer tries to find the right definition from various papers to make sure what the financial stability is. Afterwards, writer tries to explain asymmetry information that cause the financial instability and the indicator that depicts the level of stability. Last, writer discusses the right policy to overcome financial instability and to achieve financial stability. Pendahuluan Selama beberapa tahun terakhir krisis keuangan kerap melanda perekonomian dunia dengan intensitas dan frekuensi yang semakin kuat. Krisis keuangan Asia tahun 1997 – 1998 dan krisis keuangan global di tahun 2008 adalah beberapa contoh yang paling massif. Krisis keuangan yang terjadi, juga telah mengancam stabilitas dari sistem keuangan international. Hal ini merupakan situasi yang sangat serius. Oleh karena itu, banyak studi yang dilakukan untuk meneliti tentang stabilitas keuangan, indikator yang menjelaskan dan kebijakan yang dapat diambil guna mencapai stabilitas. Karena hal ini menjadi sangat penting bagi para penentu kebijakan untuk menentukan obat dan kebijakan yang tepat dalam mengatasi instabilitas keuangan. Mencapai suatu stabilitas keuangan adalah kondisi yang diinginkan oleh seluruh negara – negara di dunia. Akan tetapi, sampai saat ini definisi dan indikator mengenai stabilitas keuangan itu sendiri masih sering diperdebatkan oleh para ahli ekonomi dunia. Banyak penelitian yang dilakukan tetapi menunjukan banyak perbedaan dan tidak ada definisi secara jelas dan dapat diterima secara umum. Karenanya, stabilitas keuangan menjadi sesuatu yang membingungkan dan kurang jelas. Bagaimana kita akan mencapai kondisi yang stabil? jika definisi, penyebab dan indikator yang jelaspun masih diperdebatkan. Untuk itu, agar ukuran tentang suatu stabilitas keuangan dalam suatu negara dapat dicapai dengan jelas dan apa indikator dari stabilitas keuangan tersebut, kita terlebih dahulu harus sepaham dan mengerti tentang definisi dari stabilitas keuangan melalui ulasan para ahli ekonomi. Kemudian, dengan bersumber dari beberapa penelitian sebelumnya, kita dapat

ABSTRACT
This paper studies the impact of the integration of all capital markets throughout the ASEAN Economic Community countries with Indonesia’s stock market. The integration will cause information being transmitted without border to all stock market within the ASEAN Countries. This condition can lead to the increase of spillover volatility effect and moreover asymmetric spillover volatility phenomenon. Singapore and Malaysia are the most influential countries in ASEAN. Singapore is an advanced country within the ASEAN region and has played an important role. Malaysia is another developing country in ASEAN with a better stock market compared to other ASEAN countries. Malaysia also has great GDP and economic growth. Thus, it is possible that the shock in Singaporean and Malaysian stock market will be transmitted to all countries within the ASEAN region, especially Indonesia. Using T-GARCH (1,1), we were able to capture the spillover volatility effect from Singapore and Malaysia toward the Indonesian Stock Exchange, although only Singapore has the asymmetry effect on the Indonesian Stock Market. Therefore, the negative return at the Singapore stock exchange will be transmitted to Indonesia with a bigger impact compared to a positive return.

Keywords: AEC, asymmetric spillover volatility phenomenon, Spillover volatility effects,  GARCH

This paper explains how the subsidy of the fuel can influence the growth of vehicle selling in
Indonesia. Subsidy is very important in Indonesia, the government made a policy to subsidy the
fuel since along time. Therefore, the prices of the fuel are very cheap. In 1980 price of Premium
only 150 Rupiah, and because the lack of government budget, the government minimize the
subsidy afterwards, and finally in 2014 price of the Premium became 8500 rupiah. This policy
made an impact in many sectors. One of the sectors is Growth of vehicle selling. After we
analyze the data with ordinary least square model, the results are Premium and Solar doesn’t
have a correlation with the selling of the vehicle. When the price of Premium rises 1 % the
growth of the vehicle selling is down to 7,13 %, but Premium doesn’t have significant influence
to the growth of vehicle selling. If we look at the r squared only 41,5%, so not only the subsidy of
the fuel that can influence the growth, but many of other variables that can be influence the
growth of vehicle selling in Indonesia.