Within the field of disaster research, hurricanes present among the most challenging topics of in... more Within the field of disaster research, hurricanes present among the most challenging topics of investigation because of their unpredictability, regular occurrence, large scale, and multifaceted destructiveness. Despite the considerable research that has been conducted on the human and social dynamics surrounding hurricanes, there have been surprisingly few examinations of the manner in which individuals perceive hurricane risk. This paper presents an analysis of our investigation into hurricane risk currently underway. In January 2006 a mail survey was sent to households in 41 counties adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, excluding the areas affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita (62% response rate, n = 824). A follow-up panel data collection was sent in January 2008 (52% response, n = 361). Measures included Peacock’s index of hurricane outlook, evacuation optimistic bias, dispositional optimism, and hurricane experience (among others). Paired sample t-tests (n = 361) were used to comp...
Within the field of disaster research, hurricanes present among the most challenging topics of in... more Within the field of disaster research, hurricanes present among the most challenging topics of investigation because of their unpredictability, regular occurrence, large scale, and multifaceted destructiveness. Despite the considerable research that has been conducted on the human and social dynamics surrounding hurricanes, there have been surprisingly few examinations of individual hurricane risk perception or optimistic bias. This paper presents an analysis of our investigation into hurricane risk currently underway. In January 2006, a mail survey was sent to households in 41 counties adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, excluding the areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (62% response rate, n = 824). A follow-up survey was sent in January 2008 (52% response rate, n = 361). Measures included Peacock et al.'s index of hurricane outlook, evacuation optimistic bias, dispositional optimism, and hurricane experience (among others). Paired sample t-tests (n = 361) were used to co...
The aim of this study was to develop a reliable and valid measure of hurricane risk perception. T... more The aim of this study was to develop a reliable and valid measure of hurricane risk perception. The utility of such a measure lies in the need to understand how people make decisions when facing an evacuation order. This study included participants located within a 15-mile buffer of the Gulf and southeast Atlantic U.S. coasts. The study was executed as a three-wave panel with mail surveys in 2010–2012 (T 0 baseline N = 629, 56%; T 1 retention N = 427, 75%; T 2 retention N = 350, 89%). An inventory based on the psychometric model was developed to discriminate cognitive and affective perceptions of hurricane risk, and included open-ended responses to solicit additional concepts in the T 0 survey. Analysis of the T 0 data modified the inventory and this revised item set was fielded at T 1 and then replicated at T 2. The resulting scales were assessed for validity against existing measures for perception of hurricane risk, dispositional optimism, and locus of control. A measure of evacuation expectation was also examined as a dependent variable, which was significantly predicted by the new measures. The resulting scale was found to be reliable, stable, and largely valid against the comparison measures. Despite limitations involving sample size, bias, and the strength of some reliabilities, it was concluded that the measure has potential to inform approaches to hurricane preparedness efforts and advance planning for evacuation messages, and that the measure has good promise to generalize to other contexts in natural hazards as well as other domains of risk.
This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Co... more This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow-up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t-tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross-lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross-lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables’ effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness.
Abstract The authors explored individual and family adjustment processes among parents (n= 30) an... more Abstract The authors explored individual and family adjustment processes among parents (n= 30) and children (n= 55) who were displaced to Colorado after Hurricane Katrina. Drawing on in-depth interviews with 23 families, this article offers an inductive model of displaced family adjustment.
This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurr... more This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was hypothesized that hurricane outlook and optimistic bias for hurricane risk would be associated positively with distance from the Katrina-Rita landfall (more optimism at greater distance), controlling for historically based hurricane risk and county population density, demographics, individual hurricane experience, and dispositional optimism.
Within the field of disaster research, hurricanes present among the most challenging topics of in... more Within the field of disaster research, hurricanes present among the most challenging topics of investigation because of their unpredictability, regular occurrence, large scale, and multifaceted destructiveness. Despite the considerable research that has been conducted on the human and social dynamics surrounding hurricanes, there have been surprisingly few examinations of the manner in which individuals perceive hurricane risk. This paper presents an analysis of our investigation into hurricane risk currently underway. In January 2006 a mail survey was sent to households in 41 counties adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, excluding the areas affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita (62% response rate, n = 824). A follow-up panel data collection was sent in January 2008 (52% response, n = 361). Measures included Peacock’s index of hurricane outlook, evacuation optimistic bias, dispositional optimism, and hurricane experience (among others). Paired sample t-tests (n = 361) were used to comp...
Within the field of disaster research, hurricanes present among the most challenging topics of in... more Within the field of disaster research, hurricanes present among the most challenging topics of investigation because of their unpredictability, regular occurrence, large scale, and multifaceted destructiveness. Despite the considerable research that has been conducted on the human and social dynamics surrounding hurricanes, there have been surprisingly few examinations of individual hurricane risk perception or optimistic bias. This paper presents an analysis of our investigation into hurricane risk currently underway. In January 2006, a mail survey was sent to households in 41 counties adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, excluding the areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (62% response rate, n = 824). A follow-up survey was sent in January 2008 (52% response rate, n = 361). Measures included Peacock et al.'s index of hurricane outlook, evacuation optimistic bias, dispositional optimism, and hurricane experience (among others). Paired sample t-tests (n = 361) were used to co...
The aim of this study was to develop a reliable and valid measure of hurricane risk perception. T... more The aim of this study was to develop a reliable and valid measure of hurricane risk perception. The utility of such a measure lies in the need to understand how people make decisions when facing an evacuation order. This study included participants located within a 15-mile buffer of the Gulf and southeast Atlantic U.S. coasts. The study was executed as a three-wave panel with mail surveys in 2010–2012 (T 0 baseline N = 629, 56%; T 1 retention N = 427, 75%; T 2 retention N = 350, 89%). An inventory based on the psychometric model was developed to discriminate cognitive and affective perceptions of hurricane risk, and included open-ended responses to solicit additional concepts in the T 0 survey. Analysis of the T 0 data modified the inventory and this revised item set was fielded at T 1 and then replicated at T 2. The resulting scales were assessed for validity against existing measures for perception of hurricane risk, dispositional optimism, and locus of control. A measure of evacuation expectation was also examined as a dependent variable, which was significantly predicted by the new measures. The resulting scale was found to be reliable, stable, and largely valid against the comparison measures. Despite limitations involving sample size, bias, and the strength of some reliabilities, it was concluded that the measure has potential to inform approaches to hurricane preparedness efforts and advance planning for evacuation messages, and that the measure has good promise to generalize to other contexts in natural hazards as well as other domains of risk.
This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Co... more This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow-up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t-tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross-lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross-lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables’ effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness.
Abstract The authors explored individual and family adjustment processes among parents (n= 30) an... more Abstract The authors explored individual and family adjustment processes among parents (n= 30) and children (n= 55) who were displaced to Colorado after Hurricane Katrina. Drawing on in-depth interviews with 23 families, this article offers an inductive model of displaced family adjustment.
This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurr... more This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was hypothesized that hurricane outlook and optimistic bias for hurricane risk would be associated positively with distance from the Katrina-Rita landfall (more optimism at greater distance), controlling for historically based hurricane risk and county population density, demographics, individual hurricane experience, and dispositional optimism.
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