Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
skip to main content
10.1145/2996913.2996960acmotherconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagesgisConference Proceedingsconference-collections
short-paper

A spatio-temporal, Gaussian process regression, real-estate price predictor

Published: 31 October 2016 Publication History
  • Get Citation Alerts
  • Abstract

    This paper introduces a novel four-stage methodology for real-estate valuation. This research shows that space, property, economic, neighbourhood and time features are all contributing factors in producing a house price predictor in which validation shows a 96.6% accuracy on Gaussian Process Regression beating regression-kriging, random forests and an M5P-decision-tree. The output is integrated into a commercial real estate decision engine.

    References

    [1]
    M. Bailey, R. Muth, and H. Nourse. A regression method for real estate price index construction. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1963.
    [2]
    A. Caplin, S. Chopra, J. V. Leahy, Y. LeCun, and T. Thampy. Machine learning and the spatial structure of house prices and housing returns. Available at SSRN 1316046, 2008.
    [3]
    K. Case and R. Shiller. Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities. New England Economic Review. Sept./Oct. 45--56, 1987.
    [4]
    D. Chandler and R. Disney. Housing market trends and recent policies. Institute for Fiscal Studies, London, 2014.
    [5]
    M. Kuntz and M. Helbich. Geostatistical mapping of real estate prices: an empirical comparison of kriging and co-kriging. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 28:9, 1904--1921.
    [6]
    J. P. LeSage and R. K. Pace. Models for spatially dependent missing data. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 29(2):233--254, 2004.
    [7]
    D. P. McMillen. The return of centralization to Chicago: using repeat sales to identify changes in house price distance gradients. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 33(3):287 -- 304, 2003.
    [8]
    H. Meyer and H. Stewart. UK house prices: 4.5% rise in 2015 sparks policy intervention. 2015 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/30/uk-house-price-rise-2015.
    [9]
    B. Park and J. K. Bae. Using machine learning algorithms for housing price prediction: The case of Fairfax county, Virginia housing data. Expert Systems with Applications, 42(6):2928 -- 2934, 2015.
    [10]
    M. Seeger. Gaussian processes for machine learning. International journal of neural systems, 14(02), 2004.
    [11]
    D. Zimmerman, C. Pavlik, A. Ruggles, and M. P. Armstrong. An experimental comparison of ordinary and universal kriging and inverse distance weighting. Mathematical Geology, 31(4):375--390, 1999.

    Cited By

    View all
    • (2024)A Comprehensive Overview Regarding the Impact of GIS on Property ValuationISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information10.3390/ijgi1306017513:6(175)Online publication date: 25-May-2024
    • (2023)Composite property price index forecasting with neural networksProperty Management10.1108/PM-11-2022-008642:3(388-411)Online publication date: 3-Nov-2023
    • (2023)A Gaussian process regression machine learning model for forecasting retail property prices with Bayesian optimizations and cross-validationDecision Analytics Journal10.1016/j.dajour.2023.1002678(100267)Online publication date: Sep-2023
    • Show More Cited By

    Recommendations

    Comments

    Information & Contributors

    Information

    Published In

    cover image ACM Other conferences
    SIGSPACIAL '16: Proceedings of the 24th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems
    October 2016
    649 pages
    ISBN:9781450345897
    DOI:10.1145/2996913
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than ACM must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected]

    Publisher

    Association for Computing Machinery

    New York, NY, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 31 October 2016

    Permissions

    Request permissions for this article.

    Check for updates

    Author Tags

    1. Gaussian process regression
    2. machine learning
    3. real estate valuation
    4. space time cube
    5. universal kriging

    Qualifiers

    • Short-paper

    Funding Sources

    • EPSRC

    Conference

    SIGSPATIAL'16

    Acceptance Rates

    SIGSPACIAL '16 Paper Acceptance Rate 40 of 216 submissions, 19%;
    Overall Acceptance Rate 220 of 1,116 submissions, 20%

    Contributors

    Other Metrics

    Bibliometrics & Citations

    Bibliometrics

    Article Metrics

    • Downloads (Last 12 months)25
    • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)5

    Other Metrics

    Citations

    Cited By

    View all
    • (2024)A Comprehensive Overview Regarding the Impact of GIS on Property ValuationISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information10.3390/ijgi1306017513:6(175)Online publication date: 25-May-2024
    • (2023)Composite property price index forecasting with neural networksProperty Management10.1108/PM-11-2022-008642:3(388-411)Online publication date: 3-Nov-2023
    • (2023)A Gaussian process regression machine learning model for forecasting retail property prices with Bayesian optimizations and cross-validationDecision Analytics Journal10.1016/j.dajour.2023.1002678(100267)Online publication date: Sep-2023
    • (2022)Retail Property Price Index Forecasting through Neural NetworksJournal of Real Estate Portfolio Management10.1080/10835547.2022.211066829:1(1-28)Online publication date: 20-Oct-2022
    • (2021)Factors affecting decision-making in land valuation process using AHP: a case in the PhilippinesInternational Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis10.1108/IJHMA-11-2020-0136ahead-of-print:ahead-of-printOnline publication date: 22-Mar-2021
    • (2020)Mining Points-of-Interest for Explaining Urban Phenomena: A Scalable Variational Inference ApproachProceedings of The Web Conference 202010.1145/3366423.3380298(2342-2353)Online publication date: 19-Apr-2020
    • (2019)Road and travel time cross-validation for urban modellingInternational Journal of Geographical Information Science10.1080/13658816.2019.165887634:1(98-118)Online publication date: 29-Aug-2019

    View Options

    Get Access

    Login options

    View options

    PDF

    View or Download as a PDF file.

    PDF

    eReader

    View online with eReader.

    eReader

    Media

    Figures

    Other

    Tables

    Share

    Share

    Share this Publication link

    Share on social media