Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                
skip to main content
10.1145/3487553.3524851acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagesthewebconfConference Proceedingsconference-collections
research-article
Open access

Enhancing Crowd Flow Prediction in Various Spatial and Temporal Granularities

Published: 16 August 2022 Publication History

Abstract

The diffusion of the Internet of Things allows nowadays to sense human mobility in great detail, fostering human mobility studies and their applications in various contexts, from traffic management to public security and computational epidemiology. A mobility task that is becoming prominent is crowd flow prediction, i.e., forecasting aggregated incoming and outgoing flows in the locations of a geographic region. Although several deep learning approaches have been proposed to solve this problem, their usage is limited to specific types of spatial tessellations and cannot provide sufficient explanations of their predictions. We propose CrowdNet, a solution to crowd flow prediction based on graph convolutional networks. Compared with state-of-the-art solutions, CrowdNet can be used with regions of irregular shapes and provide meaningful explanations of the predicted crowd flows. We conduct experiments on public data varying the spatio-temporal granularity of crowd flows to show the superiority of our model with respect to existing methods, and we investigate CrowdNet’s reliability to missing or noisy input data. Our model is a step forward in the design of reliable deep learning models to predict and explain human displacements in urban environments.

References

[1]
Hugo Barbosa, Marc Barthelemy, Gourab Ghoshal, Charlotte R. James, Maxime Lenormand, Thomas Louail, Ronaldo Menezes, José J. Ramasco, Filippo Simini, and Marcello Tomasini. 2018. Human mobility: Models and applications. Physics Reports 734(2018), 1–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2018.01.001 arxiv:1710.00004
[2]
David Boyce and H. Williams. 2015. Forecasting urban travel: Past, present and future. Edward Elgar Press. 1–650 pages. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784713591
[3]
Alket Cecaj, Marco Lippi, Marco Mamei, and Franco Zambonelli. 2021. Sensing and Forecasting Crowd Distribution in Smart Cities: Potentials and Approaches. IoT 2, 1 (2021), 33–49. https://doi.org/10.3390/iot2010003
[4]
Genan Dai, Xiaoyang Hu, Youming Ge, Zhiqing Ning, and Yubao Liu. 2021. Attention based simplified deep residual network for citywide crowd flows prediction. Frontiers of Computer Science 15, 2 (2021), 1–12.
[5]
Yann N. Dauphin, Angela Fan, Michael Auli, and David Grangier. 2017. Language Modeling with Gated Convolutional Networks. arxiv:1612.08083 [cs.CL]
[6]
B. Du, H. Peng, S. Wang, M. Z. A. Bhuiyan, L. Wang, Q. Gong, L. Liu, and J. Li. 2020. Deep Irregular Convolutional Residual LSTM for Urban Traffic Passenger Flows Prediction. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems 21, 3(2020), 972–985. https://doi.org/10.1109/TITS.2019.2900481
[7]
Floriana Gargiulo, Maxime Lenormand, Sylvie Huet, and Omar Baqueiro Espinosa. 2012. Commuting Network Models: Getting the Essentials. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 15, 2(2012), 6. https://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.1964
[8]
Jonas Gehring, Michael Auli, David Grangier, Denis Yarats, and Yann N. Dauphin. 2017. Convolutional Sequence to Sequence Learning. arxiv:1705.03122 [cs.CL]
[9]
Bruce E. Hansen. 1995. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. Econometric Theory 11, 3 (1995), 625–630. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600009440
[10]
F. Harary and G. Gupta. 1997. Dynamic graph models. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 25, 7 (1997), 79–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0895-7177(97)00050-2
[11]
G. E. Hinton and R. R. Salakhutdinov. 2006. Reducing the Dimensionality of Data with Neural Networks. Science 313, 5786 (2006), 504–507. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1127647 arXiv:https://science.sciencemag.org/content/313/5786/504.full.pdf
[12]
Sergey Ioffe and Christian Szegedy. 2015. Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal Covariate Shift. arxiv:1502.03167 [cs.LG]
[13]
Renhe Jiang, Zekun Cai, Zhaonan Wang, Chuang Yang, Zipei Fan, Quanjun Chen, Kota Tsubouchi, Xuan Song, and Ryosuke Shibasaki. 2021. DeepCrowd: A Deep Model for Large-Scale Citywide Crowd Density and Flow Prediction. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering (2021), 1–1. https://doi.org/10.1109/TKDE.2021.3077056
[14]
Luckyson Khaidem, Massimiliano Luca, Fan Yang, Ankit Anand, Bruno Lepri, and Wen Dong. 2020. Optimizing Transportation Dynamics at a City-Scale Using a Reinforcement Learning Framework. IEEE Access 8(2020), 171528–171541.
[15]
Thomas N. Kipf and Max Welling. 2016. Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks. CoRR abs/1609.02907(2016). arxiv:1609.02907http://arxiv.org/abs/1609.02907
[16]
Valdis Krebs. 2002. Mapping Networks of Terrorist Cells. CONNECTIONS 24, 3 (04 2002), 43–52.
[17]
Sangsoo Lee and Daniel B. Fambro. 1999. Application of Subset Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Short-Term Freeway Traffic Volume Forecasting. Transportation Research Record 1678, 1 (1999), 179–188. https://doi.org/10.3141/1678-22 arXiv:https://doi.org/10.3141/1678-22
[18]
Maxime Lenormand, Aleix Bassolas, and José J Ramasco. 2016. Systematic comparison of trip distribution laws and models. Journal of Transport Geography 51 (2016), 158–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.12.008
[19]
Wenjia Li, Wei Tao, Junyang Qiu, Xin Liu, X. Zhou, and Zhisong Pan. 2019. Densely Connected Convolutional Networks With Attention LSTM for Crowd Flows Prediction. IEEE Access 7(2019), 140488–140498.
[20]
Lingbo Liu, Jiajie Zhen, Guanbin Li, Geng Zhan, Zhaocheng He, Bowen Du, and Liang Lin. 2020. Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Representation Learning for Traffic Flow Prediction. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems PP (06 2020), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1109/TITS.2020.3002718
[21]
Lingbo Liu, Jiajie Zhen, Guanbin Li, Geng Zhan, Zhaocheng He, Bowen Du, and Liang Lin. 2020. Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Representation Learning for Traffic Flow Prediction. arxiv:1909.02902 [cs.LG]
[22]
Massimiliano Luca, Gianni Barlacchi, Bruno Lepri, and Luca Pappalardo. 2021. A survey on deep learning for human mobility. ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR) 55, 1 (2021), 1–44.
[23]
Massimiliano Luca, Gianni Barlacchi, Nuria Oliver, and Bruno Lepri. 2021. Leveraging Mobile Phone Data for Migration Flows. arXiv e-prints (2021), arXiv–2105.
[24]
Kai Nagel and Maya Paczuski. 1995. Emergent traffic jams. Physical Review E 51, 4 (Apr 1995), 2909–2918. https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.51.2909
[25]
Luca Pappalardo, Filippo Simini, Gianni Barlacchi, and Roberto Pellungrini. 2019. scikit-mobility: a Python library for the analysis, generation and risk assessment of mobility data. arxiv:1907.07062 [physics.soc-ph]
[26]
Yibin Ren, Huanfa Chen, Yong Han, Tao Cheng, Yang Zhang, and Ge Chen. 2020. A hybrid integrated deep learning model for the prediction of citywide spatio-temporal flow volumes. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 34, 4(2020), 802–823. https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2019.1652303
[27]
Filippo Simini, Gianni Barlacchi, Massimiliano Luca, and Luca Pappalardo. 2021. Deep Gravity: enhancing mobility flows generation with deep neural networks and geographic information. arxiv:2012.00489 [cs.LG]
[28]
Chujie Tian, Xinning Zhu, Zheng Hu, and Jian Ma. 2020. Deep spatial-temporal networks for crowd flows prediction by dilated convolutions and region-shifting attention mechanism. Applied Intelligence 50, 10 (2020), 3057–3070. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-020-01698-0
[29]
Michele Tizzoni, Paolo Bajardi, Adeline Decuyper, Guillaume Kon Kam King, Christian M. Schneider, Vincent Blondel, Zbigniew Smoreda, Marta C. González, and Vittoria Colizza. 2014. On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics. PLOS Computational Biology 10, 7 (07 2014), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003716
[30]
Pu Wang, Timothy Hunter, Alexandre Bayen, Katja Schechtner, and Marta C. Gonzalez. 2012. Understanding Road Usage Patterns in Urban Areas. Scientific reports 2 (12 2012), 1001. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep01001
[31]
Senzhang Wang, Jiannong Cao, Hao Chen, Hao Peng, and Zhiqiu Huang. 2020. SeqST-GAN: Seq2Seq Generative Adversarial Nets for Multi-Step Urban Crowd Flow Prediction. ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and Systems (TSAS) 6, 4(2020), 1–24.
[32]
Huaxiu Yao, Fei Wu, Jintao Ke, Xianfeng Tang, Yitian Jia, Siyu Lu, Pinghua Gong, Jieping Ye, and Zhenhui Li. 2018. Deep Multi-View Spatial-Temporal Network for Taxi Demand Prediction. arxiv:1802.08714 [cs.LG]
[33]
Bing Yu, Haoteng Yin, and Zhanxing Zhu. 2017. Spatio-temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Network: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting. CoRR abs/1709.04875(2017). arxiv:1709.04875http://arxiv.org/abs/1709.04875
[34]
Hao Yuan, Xinning Zhu, Zheng Hu, and Chunhong Zhang. 2020. Deep multi-view residual attention network for crowd flows prediction. Neurocomputing 404(2020), 198–212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2020.04.124
[35]
Jing Yuan, Yu Zheng, Xing Xie, and Guangzhong Sun. 2011. Driving with knowledge from the physical world. In Proceedings of the 17th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining. 316–324.
[36]
Junbo Zhang, Yu Zheng, Dekang Qi, Ruiyuan Li, and Xiuwen Yi. 2016. DNN-Based Prediction Model for Spatio-Temporal Data. In Proceedings of the 24th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems(Burlingame, California) (SIGSPACIAL ’16). Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA, Article 92, 4 pages. https://doi.org/10.1145/2996913.2997016
[37]
Junbo Zhang, Yu Zheng, Dekang Qi, Ruiyuan Li, Xiuwen Yi, and Tianrui Li. 2017. Predicting Citywide Crowd Flows Using Deep Spatio-Temporal Residual Networks. arxiv:1701.02543 [cs.AI]

Cited By

View all
  • (2024)Downscaling spatial interaction with socioeconomic attributesEPJ Data Science10.1140/epjds/s13688-024-00487-w13:1Online publication date: 5-Jul-2024
  • (2024)Fourier feature decorrelation based sample attention for dense crowd localizationNeural Networks10.1016/j.neunet.2024.106131(106131)Online publication date: Jan-2024
  • (2023)The Prediction of Flow in Railway Station Based on RRC-STGCNIEEE Access10.1109/ACCESS.2023.333428011(131128-131139)Online publication date: 2023

Index Terms

  1. Enhancing Crowd Flow Prediction in Various Spatial and Temporal Granularities

        Recommendations

        Comments

        Information & Contributors

        Information

        Published In

        cover image ACM Conferences
        WWW '22: Companion Proceedings of the Web Conference 2022
        April 2022
        1338 pages
        ISBN:9781450391306
        DOI:10.1145/3487553
        Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than the author(s) must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected].

        Sponsors

        Publisher

        Association for Computing Machinery

        New York, NY, United States

        Publication History

        Published: 16 August 2022

        Permissions

        Request permissions for this article.

        Check for updates

        Author Tags

        1. deep learning
        2. flow prediction
        3. human mobility
        4. machine learning

        Qualifiers

        • Research-article
        • Research
        • Refereed limited

        Funding Sources

        Conference

        WWW '22
        Sponsor:
        WWW '22: The ACM Web Conference 2022
        April 25 - 29, 2022
        Virtual Event, Lyon, France

        Acceptance Rates

        Overall Acceptance Rate 1,899 of 8,196 submissions, 23%

        Contributors

        Other Metrics

        Bibliometrics & Citations

        Bibliometrics

        Article Metrics

        • Downloads (Last 12 months)208
        • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)22
        Reflects downloads up to 12 Sep 2024

        Other Metrics

        Citations

        Cited By

        View all
        • (2024)Downscaling spatial interaction with socioeconomic attributesEPJ Data Science10.1140/epjds/s13688-024-00487-w13:1Online publication date: 5-Jul-2024
        • (2024)Fourier feature decorrelation based sample attention for dense crowd localizationNeural Networks10.1016/j.neunet.2024.106131(106131)Online publication date: Jan-2024
        • (2023)The Prediction of Flow in Railway Station Based on RRC-STGCNIEEE Access10.1109/ACCESS.2023.333428011(131128-131139)Online publication date: 2023

        View Options

        View options

        PDF

        View or Download as a PDF file.

        PDF

        eReader

        View online with eReader.

        eReader

        HTML Format

        View this article in HTML Format.

        HTML Format

        Get Access

        Login options

        Media

        Figures

        Other

        Tables

        Share

        Share

        Share this Publication link

        Share on social media