Alexis Fillone

Understanding the determinants of commute car choice decision is a potential way to design consistent, proactive policies to discourage car dependency. This study attempts to develop a travel mode choice model for home-to-work commuters in Metro Manila, by taking account of a comprehensive set of determinants, i.e., socioeconomic characteristics, travel behavior, and built environment characteristics. The study used the primary dataset of 3,877 observations gathered in 2017. The developed model was then applied to simulate a percentage share of car choice in response to variation of some variables of interest based on the "what-if" concept. The percentage share of car choice would have been 10.49% less than the current level had the road public transport line density of all the residential areas been maximized up to 154.22 km/km 2 and had a walk distance from home to the shortest railway station for all the residential areas been no longer than 800 m.

An initial assessment of the existing routes of the recently implemented P2P Bus Service System in Metro Manila was conducted. The service encourages mode shifting from private to public transport especially for users traversing one of the busiest roads in the metro: Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (EDSA). The characteristics of the P2P bus units that distinguish them from regular buses include fixed departure schedules, fewer pickup and drop-off points, passenger limit, and aspects such as more comfortable seating and free internet connection. A questionnaire survey is then conducted among current P2P users to have an initial assessment of the said transit system and be able to formulate possible improvements. It was found that not all routes were able to successfully encourage private car users to shift to P2P and most of the current users are also from other modes of public transport. On the other hand, a satisfaction survey is also conducted among users and it is identified that affordability, travel time, schedule, and amenities are aspects which can be improved for the P2P bus service system.

The copula-based joint discrete-continuous framework is superior to the full information maximum likelihood estimation approach of the bivariate normal distribution function. Using the simultaneous maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) to estimate the copula-based joint model is computationally prohibitive,and sometimes the simultaneous MLE approach does not converge. This paper aims to compare the models developed using the sequential and simultaneous MLE approaches of the Frank copula-based discrete-continuous model. The results implied that the simultaneous MLE of the joint model did not converge, and the problem arose during the model estimation. The estimated percentage shares of the discrete choice component using the sequential MLE approach matched the actual percentage shares. Beyond that, the model was slightly superior to the independence-based joint model in term of Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) but marginally lower in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) and mean relative error (MRE) for the continuous choice component.

This paper intends to explore the impact of facility damage, evacuation distance, and tsunami warning on earthquake evacuation choice using the primary stated preference data of 1,079 individuals collected in Surigao City, Philippines in 2019. Three alternative evacuation choices were classified such as stay at home, evacuation to open space, and evacuation to a public shelter. The Multinomial Logit (MNL) and the Multinomial Probit (MNP) regressions were used to develop the model for comparison. The results highlighted that the MNL and MNP were comparable in terms of log-likelihood value and McFadden R2. The estimated coefficients of the two models are in the same trend and informed that people are more likely to evacuate to open spaces or public shelters rather than stay at homes in case of the complete facility damage. Interestingly, people are least likely to leave to public refuges if there is a tsunami warning.

Sustained economic growth with insufficient public transport in metropolitan areas encourages private vehicle dependency, thereby increasing petroleum oil consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) production. One way to mitigate these issues is to encourage private vehicle users to own smaller fuel-efficient vehicles. This paper intends to explore determinants (i.e., socioeconomic characteristics, travel behavior, vehicle attributes and purchasing conditions, vehicle and gas prices, and built environment characteristics) of individual vehicle type owners and energy consumption in Metro Manila. The data sample of 846 observations and a copula-based joint discrete-continuous framework were employed. The findings highlighted that individuals using bank auto loans are more likely to choose SUVs than cars, thereby consuming more energy. Furthermore, people located in high population density areas and those with road-based public transport line dense areas prefer cars to SUVs. An increase in gas and vehicle cost contributes to energy saving and discourages SUV dependency. The developed models were also applied for a "what-if" scenario analysis to quantify the competing options as an innovative perspective for crafting proactive transportation policies. Understanding the determinants of vehicle type ownership and energy consumption is the precursor of designing consistent transportation policies to mitigate petroleum oil consumption and mobile emissions.

Projected economic growth is expected to further increase vehicle ownership among households in Metropolitan Manila. This increase is likely to translate to higher energy requirements, elevated greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, as well as a worsening of traffic congestion. A multinomial logit-based household vehicle ownership model was developed taking into account household characteristics and urban form peculiarities that are hypothesized to affect the level of vehicle ownership among households. The model utilized data gathered from a survey of 2,300 households from various areas of Metropolitan Manila. Results indicated that flooding susceptibility of communities does not affect vehicle ownership and type among its residents. Higher public transport density and closer proximity to essential facilities and services were found to be strong determinants that discourage vehicle ownership. Higher population density, contrary to findings in most studies, tends to reinforce vehicle ownership due to the inadequacy of public transport service, especially in crowded areas. The model was used to simulate "what if" shares of levels of vehicle ownership and apply the model under scenarios of 1) access to essential facilities, 2) improved road public transport line density, and 3) their combination. The results indicated that these interventions, relative to the baseline scenario, could respectively reduce vehicles owned by 26.63%, 35.02%, and 59.61% among the households surveyed and CO2 emission by 1.33 million tonnes, 1.63 million tonnes, and 2.69 million tonnes.

Historic urban centers (HUCs) such as the Ermita District in Manila display a compact, mixed, and human-scale urban form. Because of these features, people in these areas still depend on either walking or riding a pedicab (also known as cycle rickshaws) to reach their destinations. The latter mode, considered an informal non-mo-torized transport (NMT), is widely preferred by commuters as their first-and last-mile trip option to navigate the narrow street network of these historic districts. However, it is unclear what factors affect an individual's first-and last-mile choices. Through a face-to-face intercept survey, respondents were asked about their relative preference between the two mode choices to capture the factors that influenced their decision to walk or to ride the pedicab within Ermita. By utilizing logit choice analysis, the study identified statistically significant mode-specific, as well as qualitative, variables that influenced individual decisions. The probability outcome showed that the most significant factors were access and/or egress time, cost over travel time, safety, and accessibility of the walking environment. It is also important to note that pedicab users had a longer average trip distance (about a kilometer) than walkers, and women, including those who were accompanied by children, preferred to use pedicabs. Results from this study can help district-level planning and policymaking in three ways: (1) by improving the physical environment through encouraging the use of NMT such as walking and pedicab riding as crucial first-and/or last-mile options for individuals in HUCs; (2) by aligning routes and regulations for pedicab services to be part of an overall transport service provision, and (3) by undertaking infrastructure improvements for safer walkway environments for pedestrians, considering the implications of walking and pedicab riding to individual, population-level health outcomes and overall quality of life.

Transport plays an important role in helping people to access activities and participate in life. The availability of transport networks, the modes available, new infrastructure proposals, and the type of urban development can all impact on and change activity participation, and hence contribute to social equity in the city. This article uses surveys in low and high income neighbourhoods in Manila, the Philippines, to assess the social equity implications of differential access to transport. The analysis demonstrates how the theoretical framework of the Capability Approach (Nussbaum, 2003; Sen, 1985, 1999, 2009) can be used to assess what individuals might be able to access (capabilities) versus their actual travel (functionings). The spatial patterns of travel and access to activities are assessed, demonstrating significant differences by gender, age, income and neighbourhood, in terms of travel mode and cost of travel; health, physical and mental integrity; senses, imagination and thoughts; reasoning and planning; social interaction; natural environment; sustainable modes; and information. This approach to assessing the transport dimensions of social equity offers much potential, based not only on access to resources or consumption of mobility, but also in the opportunities that people have in relation to their activity participation. The case study context is also informative, with Manila providing an example of an Asian city with high levels of private car usage, high levels of congestion, and large spatial and income differentials in travel and associated social equity.

Transportation and accessibility has been one of the leading gate openers of tourism. Tourism is one of the fastest growing industries today and this is very true in the Philippines. The main purpose of this paper is to gain insights on the travel and personal attributes of visitors in Sagada and Banaue, the top tourist destination sites in two neighboring provinces in the region Cordillera Autonomous Region (CAR), Philippines. Accessibility was presented and its effect on the growing tourism in the study area. Simple statistics was used in the analysis of the data gathered. It was presented that the two destination sites have different travel characteristics and that the areas should cater more on group travelers. It was found out that the length of stay of visitors is much dependent on their budget.

Integrated sustainable transport systems involve appropriate pedestrian linkages to public transport services. Determining an appropriate design for pedestrian linkages to public transport services requires study on the willingness of public transport users to walk, which is partly contingent to the quality and reliability of the public transport service that pedestrians attempt to connect to. Surveys were conducted in Baguio City to: (i) investigate the willingness of commuters to walk and (ii) determine the level of understanding of both commuters and jeepney drivers and operators on the proper functions of jeepney stops, public transport facilities and services. The study found that respondents are less likely to walk and require certain walking environment conditions. Moreover, commuters and jeepney drivers demonstrated a common understanding of proper functions of jeepney stops.

Metro Manila is currently lagging in the development of mass transit systems that could have alleviated traffic congestion in the metropolis. Several studies have proposed rail transit lines in the past including a heavy rail network in 1973 and a light rail transit network in 1977. The former was not realized and only parts of the latter have been implemented. Meanwhile, in 1999 a new master plan was drawn up that also made recommendations for future rail transport development. This paper presents on these rail transit lines and discusses the counterfactual scenarios for Metro Manila concerning rail-based transportation network development according to the recommendations of past projects. It attempts to answer the question of whether transportation and traffic in Metro Manila could have been better if a more extensive rail transit network was realized.

Surian sa mga Pag-aaral Pangkaunlaran ng Pilipinas The PIDS Discussion Paper Series constitutes studies that are preliminary and subject to further revisions. They are being circulated in a limited number of copies only for purposes of soliciting comments and suggestions for further refinements. The studies under the Series are unedited and unreviewed. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute. Not for quotation without permission from the author(s) and the Institute.

Studies have shown that mega transportation infrastructure projects underperform when actual cost and benefits are compared to forecasts utilized in the project proposals. The projected costs have been shown to be commonly underestimated.In this research, a database of transportation projects from the Philippines was assembled to look into the distribution of cost forecast inaccuracies.An ambitious project in the Western Visayas Region is assessed. The Panay-Guimaras-Negros (PGN) Bridge Project intends to connect Panay, Guimaras, and Negros islands via inter-island bridges that span approximately 23 km.In this study, the PGN project is contrasted against previously completed projects and lessons drawn from their experience. Moreover, the Reference Class Forecasting (RCF), as devised by Flyvbjerg, is tackled to improve risk assessment in transportation infrastructure project proposals. If the proposed PGN proposal were placed in the distribution of completed projects based on the dat...