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Extinction risk from climate change

Nature volume 427, pages 145–148 (2004)Cite this article

Abstract

Climate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the following for many contributions: E. Bolitho, V. Perez Canhos, D. A. L. Canhos, S. Carver, S. L. Chown, S. Fox, M. Kshatriya, D. Millar, A. G. Navarro-Sigüenza, R. S. Pereira, B. Reyers, E. Martínez-Meyer, V. Sánchez-Cordero, J. Soberón, D. R. B. Stockwell, W. Thuiller, D. A. Vieglais and K. J. Wessels, researchers involved in the Projeto de Cooperação Técnica Conservação e Manejo da Biodiversidade do Bioma Cerrado, EMBRAPA Cerrados, UnB, Ibama/DFID e RBGE/Reino Unido, and the European Bird Census Council. We thank G. Mace, J. Malcolm and C. Parmesan for valuable discussions, many funding agencies for support, and B. Orlando and others at IUCN for bringing together many of the coauthors at workshops. Comments from J. A. Pounds and S. Pimm greatly improved the manuscript.Authors' contributions The fourth and subsequent authors are alphabetically arranged and contributed equally.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Lera Miles

    Present address: UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation, School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

    Chris D. Thomas & Alison Cameron

  2. Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL, UK

    Rhys E. Green

  3. Conservation Biology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK

    Rhys E. Green

  4. National Institute of Public Health and Environment, P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Michel Bakkenes

  5. Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, 2109, NSW, Australia

    Linda J. Beaumont & Lesley Hughes

  6. University of Durham, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, South Road, DH1 3LE, Durham, UK

    Yvonne C. Collingham & Brian Huntley

  7. Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Private Bag 3, WITS, 2050, South Africa

    Barend F. N. Erasmus

  8. Centro de Referência em Informação Ambiental, Av. Romeu Tórtima 228, Barão Geraldo, CEP:13083-885, Campinas, SP, Brazil

    Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira

  9. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

    Alan Grainger, Lera Miles & Oliver L. Phillips

  10. Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 1919 M Street NW, Washington DC, 20036, USA

    Lee Hannah

  11. Department of Zoology, University of Stellenbosch, Private Bag X1, 7602, Stellenbosch, South Africa

    Albert S. van Jaarsveld

  12. Climate Change Research Group, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, National Botanical Institute, Private Bag x7, Claremont, 7735, Cape Town, South Africa

    Guy F. Midgley

  13. Unidad Occidente, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México, D.F. 04510, México

    Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta

  14. Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, 66045, USA

    A. Townsend Peterson

  15. Cooperative Research Centre for Tropical Rainforest Ecology, School of Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia

    Stephen E. Williams

Authors
  1. Chris D. Thomas
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  2. Alison Cameron
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  5. Linda J. Beaumont
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  6. Yvonne C. Collingham
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  7. Barend F. N. Erasmus
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  8. Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira
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  9. Alan Grainger
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  10. Lee Hannah
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  11. Lesley Hughes
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  12. Brian Huntley
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  13. Albert S. van Jaarsveld
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  14. Guy F. Midgley
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  15. Lera Miles
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  16. Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta
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  17. A. Townsend Peterson
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  18. Oliver L. Phillips
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  19. Stephen E. Williams
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Chris D. Thomas.

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The authors declare that they have no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

41586_2004_BFnature02121_MOESM1_ESM.doc

Supplementary Information: This file contains supplementary information on: a) modelling techniques and climate models used in each study; b) extinction estimates based on various z values, using the species-area approach; c) dealing with expanding species; d) Red Data Book (RDB) classifications and e) supplementary references. (DOC 63 kb)

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Thomas, C., Cameron, A., Green, R. et al. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427, 145–148 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121

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