Journal of personality and social psychology, 2014
Social psychologists have long recognized the power of statisticized groups. When individual judg... more Social psychologists have long recognized the power of statisticized groups. When individual judgments about some fact (e.g., the unemployment rate for next quarter) are averaged together, the average opinion is typically more accurate than most of the individual estimates, a pattern often referred to as the wisdom of crowds. The accuracy of averaging also often exceeds that of the individual perceived as most knowledgeable in the group. However, neither averaging nor relying on a single judge is a robust strategy; each performs well in some settings and poorly in others. As an alternative, we introduce the select-crowd strategy, which ranks judges based on a cue to ability (e.g., the accuracy of several recent judgments) and averages the opinions of the top judges, such as the top 5. Through both simulation and an analysis of 90 archival data sets, we show that select crowds of 5 knowledgeable judges yield very accurate judgments across a wide range of possible settings-the strateg...
... Carnegie Mellon University Jack B. Soll Duke University Page 2. ... In some situations confor... more ... Carnegie Mellon University Jack B. Soll Duke University Page 2. ... In some situations conformity is constructive and appropriate; in other situations it is not" (see Kameda & Tindale, 2006, and Krueger & Massey, 2009 for recent analyses of the adaptiveness of conformity). ...
... Powerful and Unpersuaded: The Implications of Power for Confidence and Advice Taking Kelly E.... more ... Powerful and Unpersuaded: The Implications of Power for Confidence and Advice Taking Kelly E. See New York University Elizabeth Wolfe Morrison New York University Naomi B. Rothman University of Illinois Jack B. Soll Duke University ...
Journal of personality and social psychology, 2014
Social psychologists have long recognized the power of statisticized groups. When individual judg... more Social psychologists have long recognized the power of statisticized groups. When individual judgments about some fact (e.g., the unemployment rate for next quarter) are averaged together, the average opinion is typically more accurate than most of the individual estimates, a pattern often referred to as the wisdom of crowds. The accuracy of averaging also often exceeds that of the individual perceived as most knowledgeable in the group. However, neither averaging nor relying on a single judge is a robust strategy; each performs well in some settings and poorly in others. As an alternative, we introduce the select-crowd strategy, which ranks judges based on a cue to ability (e.g., the accuracy of several recent judgments) and averages the opinions of the top judges, such as the top 5. Through both simulation and an analysis of 90 archival data sets, we show that select crowds of 5 knowledgeable judges yield very accurate judgments across a wide range of possible settings-the strateg...
... Carnegie Mellon University Jack B. Soll Duke University Page 2. ... In some situations confor... more ... Carnegie Mellon University Jack B. Soll Duke University Page 2. ... In some situations conformity is constructive and appropriate; in other situations it is not" (see Kameda & Tindale, 2006, and Krueger & Massey, 2009 for recent analyses of the adaptiveness of conformity). ...
... Powerful and Unpersuaded: The Implications of Power for Confidence and Advice Taking Kelly E.... more ... Powerful and Unpersuaded: The Implications of Power for Confidence and Advice Taking Kelly E. See New York University Elizabeth Wolfe Morrison New York University Naomi B. Rothman University of Illinois Jack B. Soll Duke University ...
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