Spanish abstract: El crecimiento económico colombiano del período 2005 – 2019 fue sobresaliente e... more Spanish abstract: El crecimiento económico colombiano del período 2005 – 2019 fue sobresaliente en el plano internacional: el PIB por trabajador aumentó 2,07% anual, equivalente a 36% en esos 15 años. Lo anterior fue posible porque creció la productividad total de los factores (PTF). Esto se puede afirmar en vista de que el capital, en el largo plazo, no es un factor explicativo. Lo preocupante fue la tendencia declinante de la tasa de crecimiento de la PTF, al punto de que en los dos últimos años esta se estancó. En cuanto a los ciclos, los de Colombia dependieron de los de Estados Unidos tanto de manera directa como a través del precio del petróleo. La intensidad de los ciclos colombianos (su distancia relativa entre picos y valles) fue mayor que la de los estadounidenses. English abstract: In 2005-19 Colombian economic growth was outstanding at the international level: GDP per worker increased 2.07% per year, equivalent to 36% in those 15 years. This was possible because total factor productivity (TFP) increased. This can be affirmed in view of the fact that capital stock, in the long term, is not an explanatory factor. What was worrying was the declining trend in the growth rate of TFP; in fact, it has stagnated in the last two years. Regarding to short run dynamics, Colombian business cycles depended on the United States´s cycles both directly and through the oil price. But the intensity of the Colombian cycles (their relative distance between peaks and troughs) was greater than the exhibited by American cycles.
<b>Spanish Abstract:</b> Este documento presenta un modelo de oferta y demanda para e... more <b>Spanish Abstract:</b> Este documento presenta un modelo de oferta y demanda para explicar por qué el precio de la vivienda es mayor en Bogotá que en Medellín. Por medio de una estimación por máxima verosimilitud (Vector de Corrección de Error - VEC), los resultados muestran un efecto permanente de la relación de tasas de ocupación para explicar los precios relativos entre estas dos ciudades. En el ajuste de corto plazo, no solo los rezagos de la relación de precios de la vivienda y de la relación de la tasa de ocupación son estadísticamente significativos sino que además variables como la relación del ingreso promedio de los hogares y la relación de la cartera hipotecaria rezagada un periodo presentan significancia estadística.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> This paper uses a supply and demand model to explain why the price of housing is higher in Bogotá than in Medellín. The results related to a VEC model show that there is a permanent effect of the employment rate explaining the relative prices between these two cities. In the short-term, variables such as the households income and the mortgage portfolio have statistical significance.
The pace of Japanese economic growth was substantially higher than that exhibited by the group of... more The pace of Japanese economic growth was substantially higher than that exhibited by the group of developed economies between 1985 and 1995; later has been lower. What explains this "relative decline"? According to the econometric results of an exercise carried out, inspired by the model of Aghion and Howitt (2009), the hypotheses of insufficient investment or savings can be considered implausible to explain such performance, while an alternative hypothesis can be considered likely: The loss of efficiency of the Japanese society, compared with the other developed societies, to transform resources required in R&D into a high and constant rate of technical change.
Spanish abstract: El crecimiento económico colombiano del período 2005 – 2019 fue sobresaliente e... more Spanish abstract: El crecimiento económico colombiano del período 2005 – 2019 fue sobresaliente en el plano internacional: el PIB por trabajador aumentó 2,07% anual, equivalente a 36% en esos 15 años. Lo anterior fue posible porque creció la productividad total de los factores (PTF). Esto se puede afirmar en vista de que el capital, en el largo plazo, no es un factor explicativo. Lo preocupante fue la tendencia declinante de la tasa de crecimiento de la PTF, al punto de que en los dos últimos años esta se estancó. En cuanto a los ciclos, los de Colombia dependieron de los de Estados Unidos tanto de manera directa como a través del precio del petróleo. La intensidad de los ciclos colombianos (su distancia relativa entre picos y valles) fue mayor que la de los estadounidenses. English abstract: In 2005-19 Colombian economic growth was outstanding at the international level: GDP per worker increased 2.07% per year, equivalent to 36% in those 15 years. This was possible because total factor productivity (TFP) increased. This can be affirmed in view of the fact that capital stock, in the long term, is not an explanatory factor. What was worrying was the declining trend in the growth rate of TFP; in fact, it has stagnated in the last two years. Regarding to short run dynamics, Colombian business cycles depended on the United States´s cycles both directly and through the oil price. But the intensity of the Colombian cycles (their relative distance between peaks and troughs) was greater than the exhibited by American cycles.
<b>Spanish Abstract:</b> Este documento presenta un modelo de oferta y demanda para e... more <b>Spanish Abstract:</b> Este documento presenta un modelo de oferta y demanda para explicar por qué el precio de la vivienda es mayor en Bogotá que en Medellín. Por medio de una estimación por máxima verosimilitud (Vector de Corrección de Error - VEC), los resultados muestran un efecto permanente de la relación de tasas de ocupación para explicar los precios relativos entre estas dos ciudades. En el ajuste de corto plazo, no solo los rezagos de la relación de precios de la vivienda y de la relación de la tasa de ocupación son estadísticamente significativos sino que además variables como la relación del ingreso promedio de los hogares y la relación de la cartera hipotecaria rezagada un periodo presentan significancia estadística.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> This paper uses a supply and demand model to explain why the price of housing is higher in Bogotá than in Medellín. The results related to a VEC model show that there is a permanent effect of the employment rate explaining the relative prices between these two cities. In the short-term, variables such as the households income and the mortgage portfolio have statistical significance.
The pace of Japanese economic growth was substantially higher than that exhibited by the group of... more The pace of Japanese economic growth was substantially higher than that exhibited by the group of developed economies between 1985 and 1995; later has been lower. What explains this "relative decline"? According to the econometric results of an exercise carried out, inspired by the model of Aghion and Howitt (2009), the hypotheses of insufficient investment or savings can be considered implausible to explain such performance, while an alternative hypothesis can be considered likely: The loss of efficiency of the Japanese society, compared with the other developed societies, to transform resources required in R&D into a high and constant rate of technical change.
This paper presents an economic growth model based on the positive externalities generated by the... more This paper presents an economic growth model based on the positive externalities generated by the accumulations of physical and human capital. Such externalities imply, at the macroeconomic level, increasing returns to scale. The model helps to better understand the Colombian economic growth process from 2005-2019, and make conditional forecasts. One of the big obstacles in Colombia to have higher growth rates of the per capita product in the long term is everything that is slowing down a higher human capital growth rate and a greater creation of externalities derived from human capital, that is, everything that is hindering improvements in coverage and quality of the educational process.
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Papers by Carlos Esteban Posada