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Anexo

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Jugos Ensalada

Mes Te verde
Funcionales Tropical

1 91 15 121 Asuma los valores de los parámetros para cada uno de los
que deba emplear es decir parámetros como α,β,γ
2 64 25 78
3 89 33 76
4 66 31 65

5 57 46 107

6 112 64 115
7 77 72 132 Jugos Fun
8 58 68 88
125
9 113 79 79
10 98 81 77 110
11 65 101 102
95
12 93 102 126
13 82 110 144 80
14 71 115 93 65
15 98 128 75
50
16 75 150 64 0 5 10 15 2
17 102 152 111
18 76 152 137
19 59 166 152
Te ve
20 122 169 108 250
21 88 172 96 210
22 104 180 87
170
23 73 201 124
130
24 52 199 143
25 111 211 162 90
26 90 219 110 50
27 75 227 98 10
28 110 235 88 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1
29 85 243 132
30 121 250 154 Ensalada T
9,817 2,577 3,996 3,244
165
26% 41% 33%
150
135
120
105
90
75
60
0 3 6 9 12 15 18

Demanda COS
250
230
210
190
Demanda COS
250
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
30
10
0 5 10 15

Jugos Funcionales Te
metros para cada uno de los pronósticos
ámetros como α,β,γ

Jugos Funcionales

Jugos
Jugos Funcionales Funcionales

10 15 20 25 30

Te verde

Té Verde

Te verde

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

Ensalada Tropical

Ensalada
Tropical
Ensalada Tropical

12 15 18 21 24 27 30

Demanda COSECHAS SA
Demanda COSECHAS SA

10 15 20 25 30

Jugos Funcionales Te verde Ensalada Tropical


Suavización Suavización Suavizaciòn
Promedios Regresión
Exponencial Exponencial Expoencial
Móviles Lineal
Simple Doble Triple

Error PM SES RL SED SET


ME 6.97 0.39 - 0.00 0.86 - 1.33
MAD 25.63 8.64 16.63 18.58 18.36
MSE 1,079.53 103.43 364.57 462.64 497.19
MAPE 31% 10% 21% 23% 23%

Error PM SES RL SED SET


ME 16.96 5.11 0.00 - 0.07 - 5.07
MAD 16.96 5.11 3.69 4.18 6.61
MSE 337.04 32.89 23.91 31.06 70.57
MAPE 23% 5% 4% 5% 8%

Error PM SES RL SED SET


ME 12.60 0.41 - 0.00 0.31 - 1.49
MAD 41.33 11.29 22.06 26.93 25.19
MSE 2,089.70 140.94 633.59 821.21 814.94
MAPE 41% 11% 22% 26% 25%
Suavización Exponencial Triple
Mes Cantidad
0
1 91 m 0.60756
2 64 b 76.4828
3 89
4 66
5 57 Cantidad
6 112
125
7 77
8 58
110
9 113
10 98 95
11 65 f(x) = 0.607563959955507 x + 76.4827586206897
R² = 0.070506479073933
12 93 80
13 82
14 71 65
15 98
16 75 50
17 102 0 5 10 15 20 25
18 76
19 59
20 122
21 88
22 104
23 73
24 52
25 111
26 90
27 75
28 110
29 85
30 121

PARAMETROS DEL MODELO


𝛼=0,1 0.1
𝛽=0,1
𝛾=0,1 0.1
0.1
Periodo Demanda Se relaciona
REGRESIÓNcuanto se repite, dividido en la cantidad de repeticiones
t Dt Yt Dt/Yt St Gt Ct
1.24
1.21
1.13
1.04
76.48 0.61 1.38
1 91 77.09 1.18 76.73 0.57 1.23
2 64 77.70 0.82 74.88 0.33 1.17
3 89 78.31 1.14 75.53 0.36 1.14
4 66 78.91 0.84 73.08 0.08 1.33
5 57 79.52 0.72 70.46 - 0.19 1.19
6 112 80.13 1.40 72.82 0.06 1.21
7 77 80.74 0.95 72.35 0.01 1.13
8 58 81.34 0.71 69.47 - 0.28 1.28
9 113 81.95 1.38 71.77 - 0.02 1.23
10 98 82.56 1.19 72.69 0.07 1.22
11 65 83.17 0.78 71.23 - 0.08 1.11
12 93 83.77 1.11 71.28 - 0.07 1.29
13 82 84.38 0.97 70.76 - 0.11 1.22
14 71 84.99 0.84 69.40 - 0.24 1.20
15 98 85.60 1.14 71.08 - 0.05 1.14
16 75 86.20 0.87 69.76 - 0.17 1.27
17 102 86.81 1.17 70.97 - 0.03 1.24
18 76 87.42 0.87 70.17 - 0.11 1.19
19 59 88.03 0.67 68.24 - 0.29 1.11
20 122 88.63 1.38 70.80 - 0.01 1.31
21 88 89.24 0.99 70.79 - 0.01 1.24
22 104 89.85 1.16 72.44 0.16 1.21
23 73 90.46 0.81 71.92 0.09 1.10
24 52 91.06 0.57 68.78 - 0.23 1.26
25 111 91.67 1.21 70.61 - 0.03 1.28
26 90 92.28 0.98 70.94 0.01 1.22
27 75 92.89 0.81 70.67 - 0.02 1.10
28 110 93.49 1.18 72.35 0.15 1.28
29 85 94.10 0.90 71.91 0.09 1.27
30 121 94.71 1.28 74.72 0.36 1.26

t Dt Ft Et |Et| E2t %Et


1 91 95 (4) 4 20 4.90%
2 64 93 (29) 29 852 45.60%
3 89 85 4 4 13 4.10%
4 66 105 (39) 39 1,516 59.00%
5 57 90 (33) 33 1,102 58.25%
6 112 82 30 30 885 26.56%
7 77 83 (6) 6 36 7.83%
8 58 97 (39) 39 1,489 66.53%
9 113 82 31 31 937 27.09%
10 98 87 11 11 130 11.62%
11 65 82 (17) 17 301 26.69%
12 93 91 2 2 3 1.70%
13 82 88 (6) 6 30 6.73%
14 71 86 (15) 15 234 21.53%
15 98 77 21 21 451 21.68%
16 75 91 (16) 16 269 21.87%
17 102 85 17 17 288 16.64%
18 76 85 (9) 9 85 12.14%
19 59 80 (21) 21 426 34.98%
20 122 86 36 36 1,296 29.51%
21 88 88 (0) 0 0 0.03%
22 104 84 20 20 392 19.04%
23 73 81 (8) 8 57 10.34%
24 52 94 (42) 42 1,801 81.60%
25 111 85 26 26 664 23.22%
26 90 86 4 4 18 4.77%
27 75 78 (3) 3 9 4.07%
28 110 89 21 21 452 19.33%
29 85 93 (8) 8 57 8.86%
30 121 88 33 33 1,101 27.42%
nencial Triple
Mes

1
2
3
4
Cantidad 5
6
7
8
9
Cantidad 10
959955507 x + 76.4827586206897 Linear (Cantidad) 11
79073933
12
13
14
15
16
10 15 20 25 30 17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

t
1
2
do en la cantidad de repeticiones (5 en este caso) 3
Ft 4
5
6
7
8
9
95.46 10
93.19 11
85.35 12
104.94 13
90.20 14
82.25 15
83.03 16
96.59 17
82.39 18
86.61 19
82.35 20
91.42 21
87.52 22
86.28 23
76.75 24
91.40 25
85.03 26
85.23 27
79.64 28
86.00 29
88.03 30
84.20
80.55
94.43
85.23
85.71
78.05
88.73
92.53
87.82

ME (1.33)
MAD 18.4
MSE 497.2
MAPE 23%
Suavización Exponencial Simple
Demanda Pronóstico alfa 0.6
91.0
91 91.0
64 74.8 Jugos Funcionales
89 83.3
125
66 72.9
57 63.4
110
112 92.5
77 83.2
95
58 68.1
113 95.0
98 96.8 80

65 77.7
93 86.9 65

82 84.0
71 76.2 50
0 5 10 15 20 25
98 89.3
75 80.7 Demanda Pronóstico

102 93.5
76 83.0
59 68.6
122 100.6
88 93.1
104 99.6
73 83.6
52 64.7
111 92.5
90 91.0
75 81.4
110 98.6
85 90.4
121 108.8

Dt Ft Et |Et| E2t %Et


91 91 - - - 0.00%
64 75 (11) 11 117 16.88%
89 83 6 6 32 6.38%
66 73 (7) 7 48 10.50%
57 63 (6) 6 41 11.18%
112 93 19 19 378 17.37%
77 83 (6) 6 39 8.08%
58 68 (10) 10 102 17.39%
113 95 18 18 323 15.90%
98 97 1 1 1 1.21%
65 78 (13) 13 162 19.58%
93 87 6 6 37 6.57%
82 84 (2) 2 4 2.39%
71 76 (5) 5 27 7.30%
98 89 9 9 76 8.91%
75 81 (6) 6 33 7.61%
102 93 9 9 73 8.35%
76 83 (7) 7 49 9.20%
59 69 (10) 10 92 16.27%
122 101 21 21 456 17.51%
88 93 (5) 5 26 5.74%
104 100 4 4 19 4.21%
73 84 (11) 11 113 14.59%
52 65 (13) 13 160 24.35%
111 92 19 19 344 16.70%
90 91 (1) 1 1 1.10%
75 81 (6) 6 41 8.53%
110 99 11 11 131 10.40%
85 90 (5) 5 29 6.38%
121 109 12 12 150 10.11%
Suavizació
Mes Demanda St Gt
0 76.4827586 0.60756396
1 91 79.87 1.16
ncionales 2 64 77.63 0.48
3 89 80.29 0.92
4 66 78.17 0.31
5 57 74.18 -0.55
6 112 81.30 0.99
7 77 81.23 0.77
8 58 77.20 -0.19
9 113 84.21 1.25
10 98 87.97 1.75
11 65 84.78 0.77
12 93 87.04 1.06
13 82 86.88 0.82
5 20 25 30 14 71 84.36 0.15
15 98 87.21 0.69
Pronóstico 16 75 85.32 0.17
17 102 88.80 0.83
18 76 86.90 0.29
19 59 81.56 -0.84
20 122 88.97 0.81
21 88 89.43 0.74
22 104 92.94 1.29
23 73 89.99 0.45
24 52 82.74 -1.09
25 111 87.52 0.08
26 90 88.08 0.18
27 75 85.61 -0.35
28 110 90.21 0.64
29 85 89.67 0.40
30 121 96.26 1.64

t Dt Ft Et
1 91 77 14
2 64 81 (17)
3 89 78 11
4 66 81 (15)
ME 0.39 5 57 78 (21)
MAD 8.6 6 112 74 38
MSE 103.4 7 77 82 (5)
MAPE 10% 8 58 82 (24)
9 113 77 36
10 98 85 13
11 65 90 (25)
12 93 86 7
13 82 88 (6)
14 71 88 (17)
15 98 85 13
16 75 88 (13)
17 102 85 17
18 76 90 (14)
19 59 87 (28)
20 122 81 41
21 88 90 (2)
22 104 90 14
23 73 94 (21)
24 52 90 (38)
25 111 82 29
26 90 88 2
27 75 88 (13)
28 110 85 25
29 85 91 (6)
30 121 90 31
Suavización Exponencial Doble
Pronóstico
alfa 0.2
77.09 beta 0.2
81.04
78.11 m 0.60756396
81.21 b 76.48275862
78.48
73.63 125
82.29
110
82.01
77.02 95
85.47 f(x) = 0.607563959955507 x + 76.4827586206897
80 R² = 0.070506479073933
89.73 Demanda
85.55 65 Linear (Demanda)
88.10 Pronóstico
87.70 50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
84.51
87.90
85.49
89.63
87.19
80.72
89.79
90.17
94.23
90.43
81.65
87.60
88.26
85.26
90.84
90.08

|Et| E2t %Et


14 193 15.29%
17 290 26.62%
11 119 12.23%
15 231 23.04%
21 461 37.68% ME 0.9
38 1,472 34.26% MAD 18.6
5 28 6.87% MSE 462.6
24 576 41.39% MAPE 23%
36 1,295 31.84%
13 157 12.79%
25 611 38.04%
7 56 8.01%
6 37 7.44%
17 279 23.52%
13 182 13.76%
13 166 17.20%
17 272 16.18%
14 186 17.93%
28 795 47.79%
41 1,704 33.84%
2 3 2.03%
14 191 13.30%
21 451 29.08%
38 1,477 73.91%
29 861 26.44%
2 6 2.66%
13 176 17.68%
25 612 22.49%
6 34 6.87%
31 956 25.56%
Regresión Lineal
Mes Cantidad Pronóstico
0
1 91 77.09 m 0.60756396
2 64 77.70 b 76.48275862
3 89 78.31
4 66 78.91
5 57 79.52 125
6 112 80.13
115
7 77 80.74
8 58 81.34 105
9 113 81.95 95
10 98 82.56 f(x) = 0.607563959955507 x + 76.4827586206897
85 R² = 0.070506479073933
emanda 11 65 83.17
near (Demanda) 12 93 83.77 75
ronóstico 13 82 84.38 65
14 71 84.99
55
15 98 85.60
16 75 86.20 45
17 102 86.81 0 5 10 15 20
18 76 87.42
19 59 88.03
20 122 88.63
21 88 89.24
22 104 89.85
23 73 90.46
24 52 91.06
25 111 91.67
26 90 92.28
27 75 92.89
28 110 93.49
29 85 94.10
30 121 94.71

t Dt Ft Et |Et| E2t
1 91 77 14 14 193
2 64 78 (14) 14 188
3 89 78 11 11 114
4 66 79 (13) 13 167
5 57 80 (23) 23 507
6 112 80 32 32 1,016
7 77 81 (4) 4 14
8 58 81 (23) 23 545
9 113 82 31 31 964
10 98 83 15 15 238
11 65 83 (18) 18 330
12 93 84 9 9 85
13 82 84 (2) 2 6
14 71 85 (14) 14 196
15 98 86 12 12 154
16 75 86 (11) 11 126
17 102 87 15 15 231
18 76 87 (11) 11 130
19 59 88 (29) 29 843
20 122 89 33 33 1,113
21 88 89 (1) 1 2
22 104 90 14 14 200
23 73 90 (17) 17 305
24 52 91 (39) 39 1,526
25 111 92 19 19 374
26 90 92 (2) 2 5
27 75 93 (18) 18 320
28 110 93 17 17 272
29 85 94 (9) 9 83
30 121 95 26 26 691
resión Lineal
Periodo Demanda
1 91
2 64
3 89
4 66
5 57
6 112
7 77
8 58
9 113
10 98
9955507 x + 76.4827586206897 Cantidad 11 65
073933
Linear (Cantidad) 12 93
Pronóstico 13 82
14 71
15 98
16 75
17 102
10 15 20 25 30 18 76
19 59
20 122
21 88
22 104
23 73
24 52
25 111
26 90
27 75
28 110
29 85
30 121

t Dt
%Et 1 91
15.29% 2 64
21.40% 3 89
12.02% 4 66
19.57% 5 57
39.51% ME (0.0) 6 112
28.46% MAD 16.6 7 77
4.85% MSE 364.6 8 58
40.25% MAPE 21% 9 113
27.48% 10 98
15.76% 11 65
27.95% 12 93
9.92% 13 82
2.90% 14 71
19.70% 15 98
12.66% 16 75
14.94% 17 102
14.89% 18 76
15.02% 19 59
49.20% 20 122
27.35% 21 88
1.41% 22 104
13.61% 23 73
23.91% 24 52
75.12% 25 111
17.41% 26 90
2.53% 27 75
23.85% 28 110
15.00% 29 85
10.71% 30 121
21.73%
Promedios Móviles
Ft PM(2) Ft PM(6)

77.5 125
76.5 81.33
77.5 73.00
61.5 70.67 110
84.5 78.33
94.5 82.00 95
f(x) = 0.607563959955507 x + 76.4827586206897 Demanda
67.5 82.33
R² = 0.070506479073933 Linear (Demanda )
85.5 82.67 Ft PM(2)
105.5 89.67 80
Ft PM(6)
81.5 92.00
79.0 85.33 65
87.5 80.00
76.5 82.00
50
84.5 83.67
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
86.5 81.33
88.5 91.67
89.0 84.33
67.5 79.00
90.5 85.67
105.0 89.67
96.0 104.67
88.5 88.33
62.5 76.33
81.5 78.67
100.5 84.33
82.5 92.00
92.5 91.67
97.5 90.00

Ft Et |Et| E2t %Et


- 91 91 8,281 100.00%
- 64 64 4,096 100.00%
78 12 12 132 12.92%
77 (11) 11 110 15.91%
78 (21) 21 420 35.96% ME
62 51 51 2,550 45.09% MAD
85 (8) 8 56 9.74% MSE
95 (37) 37 1,332 62.93% MAPE
68 46 46 2,070 40.27%
86 13 13 156 12.76%
106 (41) 41 1,640 62.31%
82 12 12 132 12.37%
79 3 3 9 3.66%
88 (17) 17 272 23.24%
77 22 22 462 21.94%
85 (10) 10 90 12.67%
87 16 16 240 15.20%
89 (13) 13 156 16.45%
89 (30) 30 900 50.85%
68 55 55 2,970 44.67%
91 (3) 3 6 2.84%
105 (1) 1 1 0.96%
96 (23) 23 529 31.51%
89 (37) 37 1,332 70.19%
63 49 49 2,352 43.69%
82 9 9 72 9.44%
101 (26) 26 650 34.00%
83 28 28 756 25.00%
93 (8) 8 56 8.82%
98 24 24 552 19.42%
Demanda
Linear (Demanda )
Ft PM(2)
Ft PM(6)

6.97
25.6
1,079.5
31%
Suavización Exponencial Triple
Mes Cantidad
0
1 15 m 8.132591769
2 25 b 7.144827586
3 33
4 31
5 46 Cantidad
6 64
300
7 72
250
8 68 f(x) = 8.13259176863181 x + 7.14482758620692
200
9 79
150
10 81
100
11 101
50
12 102
0
13 110 0 5 10 15 20
14 115
15 128
16 150
17 152
18 152
19 166
20 169
21 172
22 180
23 201
24 199
25 211
26 219
27 227
28 235
29 243
30 250

PARAMETROS DEL MODELO


𝛼=0,1 0.1
𝛽=0,1
𝛾=0,1 0.1
0.1
Periodo Demanda REGRESIÓN Se relaciona cuanto se repite, dividido en la cantidad de repeti
t Dt Yt Dt/Yt St Gt Ct
1.25
1.24
1.20
1.15
7.14 8.13 1.17
1 15 15.28 0.98 14.95 8.10 1.22
2 25 23.41 1.07 22.77 8.07 1.22
3 33 31.54 1.05 30.51 8.04 1.19
4 31 39.68 0.78 37.40 7.92 1.11
5 46 47.81 0.96 44.72 7.86 1.16
6 64 55.94 1.14 52.56 7.86 1.22
7 72 64.07 1.12 60.27 7.85 1.22
8 68 72.21 0.94 67.04 7.74 1.17
9 79 80.34 0.98 74.39 7.70 1.11
10 81 88.47 0.92 80.88 7.58 1.14
11 101 96.60 1.05 87.88 7.52 1.21
12 102 104.74 0.97 94.22 7.40 1.21
13 110 112.87 0.97 100.88 7.33 1.16
14 115 121.00 0.95 107.76 7.28 1.10
15 128 129.13 0.99 114.74 7.25 1.14
16 150 137.27 1.09 122.15 7.27 1.22
17 152 145.40 1.05 129.08 7.24 1.20
18 152 153.53 0.99 135.78 7.18 1.16
19 166 161.66 1.03 143.70 7.25 1.11
20 169 169.80 1.00 150.68 7.23 1.14
21 172 177.93 0.97 156.27 7.06 1.20
22 180 186.06 0.97 161.96 6.93 1.19
23 201 194.19 1.04 169.37 6.98 1.16
24 199 202.33 0.98 176.65 7.01 1.11
25 211 210.46 1.00 183.84 7.02 1.14
26 219 218.59 1.00 189.96 6.93 1.20
27 227 226.72 1.00 196.22 6.87 1.19
28 235 234.86 1.00 203.04 6.86 1.16
29 243 242.99 1.00 210.78 6.95 1.12
30 250 251.12 1.00 217.91 6.97 1.14

t Dt Ft Et |Et| E2t %Et


1 15 19 (4) 4 16 26.96%
2 25 28 (3) 3 12 13.97%
3 33 37 (4) 4 16 11.93%
4 31 44 (13) 13 173 42.41%
5 46 53 (7) 7 51 15.54%
6 64 64 (0) 0 0 0.42%
7 72 74 (2) 2 3 2.56%
8 68 81 (13) 13 164 18.81%
9 79 83 (4) 4 18 5.39%
10 81 95 (14) 14 198 17.37%
11 101 108 (7) 7 50 7.00%
12 102 116 (14) 14 205 14.04%
13 110 119 (9) 9 77 7.99%
14 115 120 (5) 5 24 4.28%
15 128 131 (3) 3 12 2.68%
16 150 148 2 2 3 1.22%
17 152 156 (4) 4 16 2.65%
18 152 158 (6) 6 39 4.12%
19 166 158 8 8 66 4.91%
20 169 172 (3) 3 9 1.80%
21 172 192 (20) 20 400 11.63%
22 180 196 (16) 16 271 9.15%
23 201 195 6 6 32 2.80%
24 199 196 3 3 11 1.70%
25 211 209 2 2 4 0.95%
26 219 230 (11) 11 118 4.96%
27 227 235 (8) 8 65 3.54%
28 235 236 (1) 1 0 0.23%
29 243 233 10 10 96 4.03%
30 250 248 2 2 4 0.81%
n Exponencial Triple
Mes Demanda

1 15
2 25
3 33
4 31
antidad 5 46
6 64
7 72
8 68
9 79
10 81
11 101
12 102
20 25 30 35 13 110
14 115
15 128
16 150
17 152
18 152
19 166
20 169
21 172
22 180
23 201
24 199
25 211
26 219
27 227
28 235
29 243
30 250

t Dt
1 15
2 25
en la cantidad de repeticiones (5 en este caso) 3 33
Ft 4 31
5 46
6 64
7 72
8 68
9 79
19.04 10 81
28.49 11 101
36.94 12 102
44.15 13 110
53.15 14 115
64.27 15 128
73.84 16 150
80.79 17 152
83.26 18 152
95.07 19 166
108.07 20 169
116.33 21 172
118.79 22 180
119.92 23 201
131.43 24 199
148.16 25 211
156.03 26 219
158.27 27 227
157.85 28 235
172.04 29 243
192.00 30 250
196.46
195.38
195.62
208.99
229.86
235.03
235.55
233.20
247.97

ME (4.67)
MAD 6.9
MSE 71.8
MAPE 8%
Suavización Exponencial Simple
Pronóstico alfa 0.6
15.0
15.0
21.0
28.2
29.9 250
f(x) = 8.13259176863181 x + 7.14482758620692
39.6 230 R² = 0.995197746370311
54.2 210
64.9 190
66.8 170
74.1 150
78.2 Column C
130
91.9 Linear (Column C)
110 Column D
98.0
90
105.2
70
111.1
50
121.2
30
138.5
10
146.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
149.8
159.5
165.2
169.3
175.7
190.9
195.8
204.9
213.4
221.5
229.6
237.6
245.1

Ft Et |Et| E2t %Et


15 - - - 0.00%
21 4 4 16 16.00%
28 5 5 23 14.55%
30 1 1 1 3.61%
40 6 6 42 14.02% ME 5.11
54 10 10 96 15.28% MAD 5.1
65 7 7 51 9.88% MSE 32.9
67 1 1 2 1.83% MAPE 5%
74 5 5 24 6.20%
78 3 3 8 3.41%
92 9 9 83 9.01%
98 4 4 16 3.96%
105 5 5 23 4.38%
111 4 4 15 3.41%
121 7 7 46 5.29%
138 12 12 132 7.67%
147 5 5 29 3.55%
150 2 2 5 1.42%
160 6 6 42 3.89%
165 4 4 14 2.24%
169 3 3 7 1.58%
176 4 4 18 2.38%
191 10 10 102 5.03%
196 3 3 11 1.63%
205 6 6 37 2.89%
213 6 6 32 2.58%
222 5 5 30 2.40%
230 5 5 29 2.29%
238 5 5 29 2.20%
245 5 5 24 1.98%
Suavización Exponencial Do
Mes Demanda St Gt Pronóstico
0 7.14482759 8.13259177
1 15 15.22 8.12 15.28
2 25 23.67 8.19 23.34
3 33 32.09 8.23 31.86
4 31 38.46 7.86 40.32
5 46 46.26 7.85 46.32
6 64 56.08 8.24 54.10
7 72 65.86 8.55 64.33
8 68 73.13 8.29 74.41
250
9 79 80.94 8.20 81.42 230 f(x) = 8.1325
mn C 210 R² = 0.99519
10 81 87.51 7.87 89.14
r (Column C) 190
11 101 96.50 8.10 95.38 170
mn D 150
12 102 104.08 7.99 104.60
130
13 110 111.66 7.91 112.07 110
14 115 118.65 7.73 119.57 90
70
15 128 126.70 7.79 126.38 50
16 150 137.60 8.41 134.50 30
10
17 152 147.21 8.65 146.01
0 5
18 152 155.09 8.50 155.86
19 166 164.07 8.59 163.58
20 169 171.93 8.45 172.66
21 172 178.70 8.11 180.38
22 180 185.45 7.84 186.81
23 201 194.83 8.15 193.29
24 199 202.18 7.99 202.98
25 211 210.34 8.02 210.17
26 219 218.49 8.05 218.36
27 227 226.63 8.07 226.54
28 235 234.76 8.08 234.69
29 243 242.87 8.08 242.83
30 250 250.76 8.05 250.95

t Dt Ft Et |Et| E2t
1 15 15 (0) 0 0
2 25 23 2 2 3
3 33 32 1 1 1
4 31 40 (9) 9 87
5 46 46 (0) 0 0
6 64 54 10 10 98
7 72 64 8 8 59
8 68 74 (6) 6 41
9 79 81 (2) 2 6
10 81 89 (8) 8 66
11 101 95 6 6 32
12 102 105 (3) 3 7
13 110 112 (2) 2 4
14 115 120 (5) 5 21
15 128 126 2 2 3
16 150 134 16 16 240
17 152 146 6 6 36
18 152 156 (4) 4 15
19 166 164 2 2 6
20 169 173 (4) 4 13
21 172 180 (8) 8 70
22 180 187 (7) 7 46
23 201 193 8 8 59
24 199 203 (4) 4 16
25 211 210 1 1 1
26 219 218 1 1 0
27 227 227 0 0 0
28 235 235 0 0 0
29 243 243 0 0 0
30 250 251 (1) 1 1
vización Exponencial Doble
Mes Cantidad
alfa 0.2 0
beta 0.2 1 15
2 25
m 8.132591769 3 33
b 7.144827586 4 31
5 46
6 64
7 72
8 68
250
230 f(x) = 8.13259176863181 x + 7.14482758620692 9 79
210 R² = 0.995197746370311
10 81
190
170 11 101
150 12 102
130
110 13 110
90 Demanda 14 115
70
50
Linear (Demanda) 15 128
30 Pronóstico 16 150
10
17 152
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
18 152
19 166
20 169
21 172
22 180
23 201
24 199
25 211
26 219
27 227
28 235
29 243
30 250

%Et t Dt
1.85% 1 15
6.63% 2 25
3.45% 3 33
30.08% 4 31
0.69% ME (0.1) 5 46
15.46% MAD 4.2 6 64
10.66% MSE 31.1 7 72
9.43% MAPE 5% 8 68
3.07% 9 79
10.04% 10 81
5.56% 11 101
2.55% 12 102
1.88% 13 110
3.97% 14 115
1.26% 15 128
10.34% 16 150
3.94% 17 152
2.54% 18 152
1.46% 19 166
2.17% 20 169
4.87% 21 172
3.78% 22 180
3.84% 23 201
2.00% 24 199
0.39% 25 211
0.29% 26 219
0.20% 27 227
0.13% 28 235
0.07% 29 243
0.38% 30 250
Regresión Lineal
Pronóstico

15.28 m 8.132591769
23.41 b 7.144827586
31.54
39.68
Té Verde
47.81
55.94 300

64.07 250
f(x) = 8.13259176863181 x + 7.14482758620692
72.21 R² = 0.995197746370311
200
80.34
88.47 150
96.60
100
104.74
112.87 50
121.00 0
129.13 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

137.27 Cantidad Linear (Cantidad)


145.40 Pronóstico Linear (Pronóstico)
153.53
161.66
169.80
177.93
186.06
194.19
202.33
210.46
218.59
226.72
234.86
242.99
251.12

Ft Et |Et| E2t %Et


15 (0) 0 0 1.85%
23 2 2 3 6.36%
32 1 1 2 4.42%
40 (9) 9 75 27.98%
48 (2) 2 3 3.93% ME 0.0
56 8 8 65 12.59% MAD 3.7
64 8 8 63 11.01% MSE 23.9
72 (4) 4 18 6.18% MAPE 4%
80 (1) 1 2 1.69%
88 (7) 7 56 9.22%
97 4 4 19 4.35%
105 (3) 3 7 2.68%
113 (3) 3 8 2.61%
121 (6) 6 36 5.22%
129 (1) 1 1 0.89%
137 13 13 162 8.49%
145 7 7 44 4.34%
154 (2) 2 2 1.01%
162 4 4 19 2.61%
170 (1) 1 1 0.47%
178 (6) 6 35 3.45%
186 (6) 6 37 3.37%
194 7 7 46 3.39%
202 (3) 3 11 1.67%
210 1 1 0 0.26%
219 0 0 0 0.19%
227 0 0 0 0.12%
235 0 0 0 0.06%
243 0 0 0 0.00%
251 (1) 1 1 0.45%
Promedios Móviles
Periodo Demanda Ft PM(3) Ft PM(6)
1 15
250
2 25 f(x) = 8.13259176863181 x + 7.144827586
3 33 225 R² = 0.995197746370311
4 31 24.3 200
5 46 29.7 175
6 64 36.7
150
7 72 47.0 35.7
8 68 60.7 45.2 125
9 79 68.0 52.3 100
10 81 73.0 60.0 75
11 101 76.0 68.3
50
12 102 87.0 77.5
13 110 94.7 83.8 25
14 115 104.3 90.2 0
15 128 109.0 98.0 0 5 10 15 20 2
35 16 150 117.7 106.2
17 152 131.0 117.7
18 152 143.3 126.2
19 166 151.3 134.5
20 169 156.7 143.8
21 172 162.3 152.8
22 180 169.0 160.2
23 201 173.7 165.2
24 199 184.3 173.3
25 211 193.3 181.2
26 219 203.7 188.7
27 227 209.7 197.0
28 235 219.0 206.2
29 243 227.0 215.3
30 250 235.0 222.3

t Dt Ft Et |Et| E2t %Et


1 15 - 15 15 225 100.00%
2 25 - 25 25 625 100.00%
3 33 - 33 33 1,089 100.00%
4 31 24 7 7 44 21.51%
5 46 30 16 16 267 35.51%
6 64 37 27 27 747 42.71%
7 72 47 25 25 625 34.72%
8 68 61 7 7 54 10.78%
9 79 68 11 11 121 13.92%
10 81 73 8 8 64 9.88%
11 101 76 25 25 625 24.75%
12 102 87 15 15 225 14.71%
13 110 95 15 15 235 13.94%
14 115 104 11 11 114 9.28%
15 128 109 19 19 361 14.84%
16 150 118 32 32 1,045 21.56%
17 152 131 21 21 441 13.82%
18 152 143 9 9 75 5.70%
19 166 151 15 15 215 8.84%
20 169 157 12 12 152 7.30%
21 172 162 10 10 93 5.62%
22 180 169 11 11 121 6.11%
23 201 174 27 27 747 13.60%
24 199 184 15 15 215 7.37%
25 211 193 18 18 312 8.37%
26 219 204 15 15 235 7.00%
27 227 210 17 17 300 7.64%
28 235 219 16 16 256 6.81%
29 243 227 16 16 256 6.58%
30 250 235 15 15 225 6.00%
6863181 x + 7.14482758620692
6370311

Demanda
Linear (Demanda )
Ft PM(3)
Ft PM(6)

15 20 25 30

ME 16.96
MAD 17.0
MSE 337.0
MAPE 23%
Suavización Exponencial Triple
Mes Cantidad
0
1 121 m 1.271190211
2 78 b 88.42988506
3 76
4 65
5 107
6 115
Cantidad
7 132 180
8 88 160
9 79 140
10 77
120 f(x) = 1.27119021134594 x + 88.4298850574713
11 102
100
12 126
13 144 80

14 93 60
15 75 40
16 64 20
17 111 0
18 137 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
19 152
20 108
21 96
22 87
23 124
24 143
25 162
26 110
27 98
28 88
29 132
30 154

PARAMETROS DEL MODELO


𝛼=0,1 0.1
𝛽=0,1
𝛾=0,1 0.1
0.1
Periodo Demanda REGRESIÓN Se relaciona cuanto se repite, dividido en la cantidad de repeti
t Dt Yt Dt/Yt St Gt Ct
1.17
1.20
1.22
1.19
88.43 1.27 1.22
1 121 89.70 1.35 91.04 1.40 1.19
2 78 90.97 0.86 89.72 1.13 1.16
3 76 92.24 0.82 88.01 0.85 1.18
4 65 93.51 0.70 85.42 0.50 1.15
5 107 94.79 1.13 86.10 0.52 1.22
6 115 96.06 1.20 87.63 0.62 1.20
7 132 97.33 1.36 90.77 0.87 1.19
8 88 98.60 0.89 89.93 0.70 1.16
9 79 99.87 0.79 88.44 0.48 1.12
10 77 101.14 0.76 86.33 0.22 1.19
11 102 102.41 1.00 86.38 0.21 1.20
12 126 103.68 1.22 88.49 0.40 1.22
13 144 104.96 1.37 92.40 0.75 1.20
14 93 106.23 0.88 92.11 0.64 1.11
15 75 107.50 0.70 89.78 0.35 1.15
16 64 108.77 0.59 86.45 - 0.02 1.15
17 111 110.04 1.01 86.92 0.03 1.22
18 137 111.31 1.23 89.66 0.30 1.23
19 152 112.58 1.35 94.62 0.77 1.16
20 108 113.85 0.95 95.21 0.75 1.15
21 96 115.12 0.83 94.68 0.62 1.14
22 87 116.40 0.75 92.89 0.38 1.19
23 124 117.67 1.05 93.99 0.45 1.24
24 143 118.94 1.20 97.30 0.74 1.19
25 162 120.21 1.35 102.30 1.16 1.20
26 110 121.48 0.91 102.77 1.09 1.13
27 98 122.75 0.80 101.69 0.88 1.17
28 88 124.02 0.71 99.39 0.56 1.21
29 132 125.29 1.05 101.02 0.67 1.20
30 154 126.57 1.22 104.40 0.94 1.22

t Dt Ft Et |Et| E2t %Et


1 121 105 16 16 246 12.97%
2 78 111 (33) 33 1,064 41.83%
3 76 111 (35) 35 1,192 45.42%
4 65 106 (41) 41 1,685 63.16%
5 107 105 2 2 5 2.02%
6 115 103 12 12 143 10.40%
7 132 103 29 29 857 22.18%
8 88 108 (20) 20 410 23.01%
9 79 104 (25) 25 637 31.96%
10 77 109 (32) 32 1,005 41.16%
11 102 104 (2) 2 4 1.97%
12 126 103 23 23 515 18.02%
13 144 103 41 41 1,665 28.34%
14 93 105 (12) 12 138 12.64%
15 75 110 (35) 35 1,247 47.09%
16 64 108 (44) 44 1,947 68.95%
17 111 105 6 6 35 5.31%
18 137 104 33 33 1,063 23.80%
19 152 100 52 52 2,690 34.12%
20 108 110 (2) 2 4 1.92%
21 96 111 (15) 15 216 15.32%
22 87 116 (29) 29 869 33.88%
23 124 115 9 9 80 7.23%
24 143 110 33 33 1,103 23.23%
25 162 113 49 49 2,406 30.28%
26 110 118 (8) 8 63 7.20%
27 98 124 (26) 26 674 26.50%
28 88 127 (39) 39 1,551 44.75%
29 132 119 13 13 162 9.66%
30 154 122 32 32 1,054 21.08%
n Exponencial Triple
Mes Demanda

1 121
2 78
3 76
4 65
5 107
Cantidad 6 115
7 132
8 88
9 79
10 77
11 102
12 126
13 144
14 93
15 75
16 64
17 111
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 18 137
19 152
20 108
21 96
22 87
23 124
24 143
25 162
26 110
27 98
28 88
29 132
30 154

t Dt
1 121
2 78
en la cantidad de repeticiones (5 en este caso) 3 76
Ft 4 65
5 107
6 115
7 132
8 88
9 79
105.31 10 77
110.62 11 102
110.52 12 126
106.05 13 144
104.84 14 93
103.04 15 75
102.72 16 64
108.25 17 111
104.25 18 137
108.70 19 152
104.01 20 108
103.30 21 96
103.20 22 87
104.76 23 124
110.32 24 143
108.13 25 162
105.11 26 110
104.39 27 98
100.13 28 88
110.07 29 132
110.71 30 154
116.47
115.04
109.78
112.94
117.92
123.97
127.38
119.25
121.53

ME (1.62)
MAD 24.9
MSE 824.5
MAPE 25%
Suavización Exponencial Simple
Pronóstico alfa 0.6
121.0
121.0
95.2
83.7
72.5
93.2
106.3 Ensalada Tropical
121.7
164
101.5
88.0
144
81.4
93.8
124
113.1
131.6 104
108.5
88.4 84
73.8
96.1 64
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
120.6
139.5 Demanda Pronóstico
120.6
105.8
94.5
112.2
130.7
149.5
125.8
109.1
96.4
117.8
139.5

Ft Et |Et| E2t %Et


121 - - - 0.00%
95 (17) 17 296 22.05%
84 (8) 8 59 10.11%
72 (7) 7 56 11.50%
93 14 14 191 12.91% ME 0.41
106 9 9 76 7.59% MAD 11.3
122 10 10 106 7.80% MSE 140.9
101 (13) 13 182 15.32% MAPE 11%
88 (9) 9 81 11.38%
81 (4) 4 19 5.71%
94 8 8 68 8.08%
113 13 13 166 10.24%
132 12 12 153 8.58%
108 (15) 15 239 16.62%
88 (13) 13 179 17.84%
74 (10) 10 95 15.24%
96 15 15 222 13.42%
121 16 16 268 11.94%
139 13 13 157 8.25%
121 (13) 13 158 11.65%
106 (10) 10 97 10.24%
95 (8) 8 57 8.66%
112 12 12 139 9.51%
131 12 12 152 8.61%
149 13 13 157 7.73%
126 (16) 16 249 14.35%
109 (11) 11 124 11.34%
96 (8) 8 71 9.60%
118 14 14 202 10.77%
140 14 14 210 9.41%
Suavización Exponencial Do
Mes Cantidad St Gt Ft
0 88.4298851 1.27119021
1 121 95.96 2.52 89.70
2 78 94.39 1.70 98.48
3 76 92.07 0.90 96.09
4 65 87.38 -0.22 92.97
5 107 91.13 0.57 87.16
6 115 96.36 1.51 91.70
7 132 104.70 2.87 97.87 165
8 88 103.65 2.09 107.57 150
9 79 100.39 1.02 105.74 135
10 77 96.53 0.04 101.41 120 f(x
11 102 97.66 0.26 96.57 R²
105
12 126 103.54 1.38 97.92
90
13 144 112.74 2.95 104.92
75
14 93 111.15 2.04 115.68
60
15 75 105.55 0.51 113.18
0
16 64 97.65 -1.17 106.06
17 111 99.38 -0.59 96.48
18 137 106.43 0.94 98.79
19 152 116.30 2.72 107.37
20 108 116.82 2.28 119.02
21 96 114.48 1.36 119.10
22 87 110.07 0.21 115.84
23 124 113.02 0.75 110.28
24 143 119.62 1.92 113.78
25 162 129.64 3.54 121.54
26 110 128.54 2.61 133.18
27 98 124.52 1.29 131.16
28 88 118.25 -0.22 125.81
29 132 120.82 0.33 118.03
30 154 127.72 1.65 121.16

t Dt Ft Et |Et| E2t
1 121 90 31 31 980
2 78 98 (20) 20 420
3 76 96 (20) 20 404
4 65 93 (28) 28 782
5 107 87 20 20 394
6 115 92 23 23 543
7 132 98 34 34 1,165
8 88 108 (20) 20 383
9 79 106 (27) 27 715
10 77 101 (24) 24 596
11 102 97 5 5 29
12 126 98 28 28 789
13 144 105 39 39 1,527
14 93 116 (23) 23 514
15 75 113 (38) 38 1,458
16 64 106 (42) 42 1,769
17 111 96 15 15 211
18 137 99 38 38 1,460
19 152 107 45 45 1,992
20 108 119 (11) 11 121
21 96 119 (23) 23 534
22 87 116 (29) 29 832
23 124 110 14 14 188
24 143 114 29 29 854
25 162 122 40 40 1,637
26 110 133 (23) 23 537
27 98 131 (33) 33 1,099
28 88 126 (38) 38 1,430
29 132 118 14 14 195
30 154 121 33 33 1,079
vización Exponencial Doble
Mes Cantidad
alfa 0.2 0
beta 0.2 1 121
2 78
m 1.271190211 3 76
b 88.42988506 4 65
5 107
6 115
165 7 132
150 8 88
135 9 79
120 f(x) = 1.27119021134594 x + 88.4298850574713 10 77
R² = 0.160418550811651 11 102
105
12 126
90 Column C
13 144
75 Linear (Column C)
14 93
60
15 75
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
16 64
17 111
18 137
19 152
20 108
21 96
22 87
23 124
24 143
25 162
26 110
27 98
28 88
29 132
30 154

%Et t Dt
25.87% 1 121
26.26% 2 78
26.44% 3 76
43.04% 4 65
18.54% ME 0.3 5 107
20.26% MAD 26.9 6 115
25.86% MSE 821.2 7 132
22.24% MAPE 26% 8 88
33.85% 9 79
31.71% 10 77
5.32% 11 102
22.29% 12 126
27.14% 13 144
24.39% 14 93
50.91% 15 75
65.72% 16 64
13.08% 17 111
27.89% 18 137
29.36% 19 152
10.21% 20 108
24.06% 21 96
33.15% 22 87
11.07% 23 124
20.44% 24 143
24.97% 25 162
21.07% 26 110
33.83% 27 98
42.97% 28 88
10.59% 29 132
21.33% 30 154
Regresión Lineal
Pronóstico

90 m 1.271190211
91 b 88.42988506
92
94
95
164
96
97
99
100 138
101
102 f(x) = 1.27119021134594 x + 88.4298850574713 Cantidad
R² = 0.160418550811651
104 112 Linear (Cantidad)
Linear (Cantidad)
105
Pronóstico
106
107 86
109
110
111 60
113 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
114
115
116
118
119
120
121
123
124
125
127

Ft Et |Et| E2t %Et


90 31 31 980 25.87%
91 (13) 13 168 16.63%
92 (16) 16 264 21.37%
94 (29) 29 813 43.87%
95 12 12 149 11.42% ME (0.0)
96 19 19 359 16.47% MAD 22.1
97 35 35 1,202 26.27% MSE 633.6
99 (11) 11 112 12.04% MAPE 22%
100 (21) 21 436 26.42%
101 (24) 24 583 31.35%
102 (0) 0 0 0.40%
104 22 22 498 17.71%
105 39 39 1,524 27.11%
106 (13) 13 175 14.22%
107 (32) 32 1,056 43.33%
109 (45) 45 2,004 69.95%
110 1 1 1 0.86%
111 26 26 660 18.75%
113 39 39 1,554 25.93%
114 (6) 6 34 5.42%
115 (19) 19 366 19.92%
116 (29) 29 864 33.79%
118 6 6 40 5.11%
119 24 24 579 16.83%
120 42 42 1,746 25.80%
121 (11) 11 132 10.44%
123 (25) 25 613 25.26%
124 (36) 36 1,298 40.94%
125 7 7 45 5.08%
127 27 27 753 17.81%
Promedios Móviles
Periodo Demanda Ft PM(3) Ft PM(6)
1 121 164
2 78
3 76
144
4 65 91.7
5 107 73.0
6 115 82.7 124 f(x) = 1.27119021134594 x + 88.429885057
7 132 95.7 93.7 R² = 0.160418550811651
8 88 118.0 95.5
104
9 79 111.7 97.2
10 77 99.7 97.7
11 102 81.3 99.7 84
Cantidad 12 126 86.0 98.8
Linear (Cantidad) 13 144 101.7 100.7
Linear (Cantidad) 64
14 93 124.0 102.7 0 5 10 15 20 2
Pronóstico
15 75 121.0 103.5
16 64 104.0 102.8
17 111 77.3 100.7
18 137 83.3 102.2
19 152 104.0 104.0
20 108 133.3 105.3
21 96 132.3 107.8
22 87 118.7 111.3
23 124 97.0 115.2
24 143 102.3 117.3
25 162 118.0 118.3
26 110 143.0 120.0
27 98 138.3 120.3
28 88 123.3 120.7
29 132 98.7 120.8
30 154 106.0 122.2

t Dt Ft Et |Et| E2t %Et


1 121 - 121 121 14,641 100.00%
2 78 - 78 78 6,084 100.00%
3 76 - 76 76 5,776 100.00%
4 65 92 (27) 27 711 41.03%
5 107 73 34 34 1,156 31.78%
6 115 83 32 32 1,045 28.12%
7 132 96 36 36 1,320 27.53%
8 88 118 (30) 30 900 34.09%
9 79 112 (33) 33 1,067 41.35%
10 77 100 (23) 23 514 29.44%
11 102 81 21 21 427 20.26%
12 126 86 40 40 1,600 31.75%
13 144 102 42 42 1,792 29.40%
14 93 124 (31) 31 961 33.33%
15 75 121 (46) 46 2,116 61.33%
16 64 104 (40) 40 1,600 62.50%
17 111 77 34 34 1,133 30.33%
18 137 83 54 54 2,880 39.17%
19 152 104 48 48 2,304 31.58%
20 108 133 (25) 25 642 23.46%
21 96 132 (36) 36 1,320 37.85%
22 87 119 (32) 32 1,003 36.40%
23 124 97 27 27 729 21.77%
24 143 102 41 41 1,654 28.44%
25 162 118 44 44 1,936 27.16%
26 110 143 (33) 33 1,089 30.00%
27 98 138 (40) 40 1,627 41.16%
28 88 123 (35) 35 1,248 40.15%
29 132 99 33 33 1,111 25.25%
30 154 106 48 48 2,304 31.17%
1134594 x + 88.4298850574713 Demanda
0811651 Linear (Demanda )
Ft PM(3)
Ft PM(6)

15 20 25 30

ME 12.60
MAD 41.3
MSE 2,089.7
MAPE 41%
Pronóstico Adicionalmente se cuenta con la sig
- Un operario trabaja 8 horas/día.
Año Días Hábiles Mes Granos de Café (arrobas) - La fuerza laboral al inicio de Enero
- La empresa desea implementar la
25 Enero 5908 - La tasa de producción de un opera
24 Febrero 9976
- El costo de una hora-hombre es de
- La empresa incurre en un costo de
23 Marzo 2096 - Si se desea despedir en algún mes
2016
26 Abril 1527 cada trabajador despedido.
25 Mayo 9240 - La empresa tiene un inventario ini
- Dada la incertidumbre de los pron
23 Junio 756
300 arrobas en los meses impares (
- La empresa tiene un costo de prod
capacidad por la fuerza laboral sea
externamente a un costo de $250.0
- El costo de almacenar el producto
empresa tiene un espacio para alm
mente se cuenta con la siguiente información:
rio trabaja 8 horas/día.
laboral al inicio de Enero es de 10 operarios.
sa desea implementar la política de no tener más de 50 operarios en cada mes.
e producción de un operario es de 0,5 arrobas/hora.
e una hora-hombre es de $5.000.
sa incurre en un costo de contratación de $600.000 por trabajador
a despedir en algún mes a algún trabajador se incurre en un costo de $800.000 por
ador despedido.
sa tiene un inventario inicial de 430 arrobas al comienzo de Enero.
ncertidumbre de los pronósticos, la compañía desea tener un stock de seguridad de
s en los meses impares (enero, marzo, etc).
sa tiene un costo de producción de $120.000 por cada arroba de cafe. En caso que la
por la fuerza laboral sea insuficiente, se tiene la posibilidad de comprarlos
nte a un costo de $250.000. (Sub-contratación)
e almacenar el producto es de $50.000 por arroba y por mes. La bodega de la
ene un espacio para almacenamiento de 1.500 arrobas.
Datos
Operarios inicio de Enero (cant.) 70
Implementacion politica max. operarios (mes) 50
Horas turno por operario (horas/dia) 8 PLAN AGREGADO DE P
Inventario inicial (enero) 430
Stock de seguridad (meses impares) 300
Espacio almacenamieto (arrobas) 1,500
Costo hora (operario) 5,000
Costo de produccion (arroba) 120,000
Costo almacenamiento (arroba) 50,000
Costo subcontratacion (arroba) 250,000
Costo de contratacion (operario) 600,000
Costo de despido (operario) 800,000
Tasa de produccion por operario (arrobas/hora) 0.5

Meses Días Hábiles Ft (Tp/día)t Pt (Non)t (Noa)t (Noc)t (Tou)t (Nod)t It (Sds)t
Enero 25 5,908 4 100 60 70 -20 50 0 430 300
Febrero 24 9,976 4 96 104 50 0 50 0 300 0
Marzo 23 2,096 4 92 23 50 0 23 27 0 300
Abril 26 1,527 4 104 15 23 0 15 8 300 0
Mayo 25 9,240 4 100 93 15 35 50 0 333 300
Junio 23 756 4 92 9 50 0 9 41 300 0
Total 146 29503 24 584 304 258 15 197 76 1663 900
GREGADO DE PRODUCCION MIX (COSECHAS)

(Pa)t (Daf)t (Das)t (Cmo)t (Coc)t (Cod)t (Ca)t (Csub)t


5,000 778 0 $ 50,000,000 ($ 12,000,000) $0 $0 $ 194,500,000
4,800 4,876 0 $ 48,000,000 $0 $0 $ 0 $ 1,219,000,000
2,116 280 0 $ 21,160,000 $ 0 $ 21,600,000 $0 $ 70,000,000
1,560 0 333 $ 15,600,000 $0 $ 6,400,000 $0 $0
5,000 4,207 0 $ 50,000,000 $ 21,000,000 $0 $ 0 $ 1,051,750,000
828 0 372 $ 8,280,000 $ 0 $ 32,800,000 $0 $0
19,304 10141 705 $ 193,040,000 $ 9,000,000 $ 60,800,000 $0 $ 2,535,250,000
(CT)t
$ 232,500,000
$ 1,267,000,000
$ 112,760,000
$ 22,000,000
$ 1,122,750,000
$ 41,080,000
$ 2,798,090,000
Datos
Operarios inicio de Enero (cant.) 10
Implementacion politica max. operarios (mes) 50
Horas turno por operario (horas/dia) 8 PLAN AGREGAD
Inventario inicial (enero) 430
Stock de seguridad (meses impares) 300
Espacio almacenamieto (arrobas) 1500
Costo hora (operario) $ 5,000
Costo de produccion (arroba) $ 120,000
Costo almacenamiento (arroba) $ 50,000
Costo subcontratacion (arroba) $ 250,000
Costo de contratacion (operario) $ 600,000
Costo de despido (operario) $ 800,000
Tasa de produccion por operario (arrobas/hora) 0.5

Meses Días Hábiles Ft (Tp/día)t Pt (Non)t (Noa)t (Noc)t (Tou)t (Nod)t It (Sds)t
Enero 25 5,908 4 100 51 10 41 51 0 0 300
Febrero 24 9,976 4 96 51 51 0 51 0 0 0
Marzo 23 2,096 4 92 51 51 0 51 0 2,296 300
Abril 26 1,527 4 104 51 51 0 51 0 6,373 0
Mayo 25 9,240 4 100 51 51 0 51 0 2,233 300
Junio 23 756 4 92 51 51 0 51 0 6,469 0
Total 146 29,503 24 584 306 265 41 306 0 17,371 900
LAN AGREGADO ALTA PRODUCCION E INVENTARIOS

(Abp)t (Aba)t (Pa)t (Daf)t (Cmo)t (Coc)t (Cod)t (Ca)t


300 0 5,530 678 $ 51,000,000 $ 24,600,000 $0 $0
0 0 5,196 5,080 $ 48,960,000 $0 $0 $0
1500 796 4,692 0 $ 46,920,000 $0 $0 $ 54,800,000
1500 4,873 7,900 0 $ 53,040,000 $0 $0 $ 243,650,000
1500 733 11,473 0 $ 51,000,000 $0 $0 $ 51,650,000
1500 4,969 7,225 0 $ 46,920,000 $0 $0 $ 248,450,000
6,300 11,371 42,016 5,758 $ 297,840,000 $ 24,600,000 $0 $ 598,550,000
(Csub)t (CT)t
$ 169,500,000 $ 245,100,000
$ 1,270,000,000 $ 1,318,960,000
$0 $ 101,720,000
$0 $ 296,690,000
$0 $ 102,650,000
$0 $ 295,370,000
$ 1,439,500,000 $ 2,360,490,000

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