VARIABLES DE RIESGO

PRECIO DE VENTA INTERNAC.

PRECIO INTERNACIONAL 90%
DEDUCIBLE 25.00
INCREMENTO DEL PRECIO INT. 0%

COSTO VARIABLE UNITARIO CVU

CVU 1 5 5 5 6.5
CVU 2 6.5

TASA DE DEPRECIACION ANUAL MENSUAL

PLATAFORMA 10% 0.83%
POZOS 12.50% 1.04%

PRODUCCION ANUAL INICIAL POR POZO (BARRILES) DECAIMIENTO DE LA PRODUCCION ANUAL

24,000.00 32,000.00 35,000.00 8% 10% 13%

RENTABILIDAD ESPERADA DEL ACCIONISTA

ANUAL
KE
12.50%

BONOS ANUAL
TASA 8.00%
COSTO EMISION 2%
SUPERVISION Y AUD. 0.5%
TASA DE FINANCIAM. 5.50%

FUENTES DE FINANCIAMIENTO
APORTE PROPIO 60%
DEUDA 40% 1

IGV
18%

TASA DE DESCUENTO
10%

IMPUESTO A LA RENTA
30%
Err:509
 0 1 2 3 4
500 500 600 700

454.545454545 413.22314 450.788881 478.109419

DE LA PRODUCCION ANUAL
12% 20%
 COK 10%

5 6 …. 20
800 500 2000

496.737058 282.236965 297.287256

 CON IGV
INVERSION INICIAL

PLATAFORMA
- CONSTRUCCION 60%
AÑO 0
- INSTALACION 40%
POZOS C/U
AÑO 10 RECUPERACION MEDIO AMBIENTE
(INVERSION - DESMONTE DE EQUIP. Y CIERRE DE POZ.
FINAL)
- MONITOREO DEL CIERRE

0
CONSTRUCCION 10,500,000.00
INSTALACION
POZOS
VALOR TOTAL
35,000,000.00
21,000,000.00
14,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
12,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
2,000,000.00

AÑO 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
5,250,000.00
8 9 10 11 12 1 2
5,250,000.00
14,000,000.00
 AÑO 1
3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2,000,000.00 2,000,000.00 2,000,000.00

 AÑO
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5

2,000,000.00 2,000,000.00
AÑO 2
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
DEPRECIACION MENSUAL
ACTIVO INVERSION TASA 1 2
PLATAFORMA 35,000,000.00 0.83% 291,666.67 291,666.67
POZO 1 21,000,000.00 1.04%
POZO 2 14,000,000.00 1.04%
POZO 3 2,000,000.00 1.04%
POZO 4 12,000,000.00 1.04%
POZO 5 10,000,000.00 1.04%

DEPRECIACION ANUALIZADA
AÑO 1 2 3
ACTIVO INVERSION
PLATAFORMA 35,000,000.00 3,500,000.00 3,500,000.00 3,500,000.00
POZO 1 21,000,000.00 1,968,750.00 2,625,000.00 2,625,000.00
POZO 2 14,000,000.00 875,000.00 1,750,000.00 1,750,000.00
POZO 3 2,000,000.00 62,500.00 250,000.00 250,000.00
POZO 4 12,000,000.00 - 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00
POZO 5 10,000,000.00 - 937,500.00 1,250,000.00
TOTAL 6,406,250.00 10,562,500.00 10,875,000.00
 DEPRECIACION

AÑO 1
3 4 5 6 7
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33

4 5 6 7 8

3,500,000.00 3,500,000.00 3,500,000.00 3,500,000.00 3,500,000.00

2,625,000.00 2,625,000.00 2,625,000.00 2,625,000.00 2,625,000.00
1,750,000.00 1,750,000.00 1,750,000.00 1,750,000.00 1,750,000.00
250,000.00 250,000.00 250,000.00 250,000.00 250,000.00
1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00 1,500,000.00
1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00 1,250,000.00
10,875,000.00 10,875,000.00 10,875,000.00 10,875,000.00 10,875,000.00
 8 9 10 11 12 13
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00

9 10 DEP. ACUMULADA VALOR EN LIBROS

3,500,000.00 3,500,000.00 35,000,000.00 -

656,250.00 - 21,000,000.00 -
875,000.00 - 14,000,000.00 -
187,500.00 - 2,000,000.00 -
1,500,000.00 - 12,000,000.00 -
1,250,000.00 312,500.00 10,000,000.00 -
7,968,750.00 3,812,500.00 94,000,000.00 -
 AÑO 2
14 15 16 17 18 19
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 20 21 22 23 24 25
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 AÑO 3
26 27 28 29 30 31
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 32 33 34 35 36 37
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 AÑO 4
38 39 40 41 42 43
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 44 45 46 47 48 49
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 AÑO 5
50 51 52 53 54 55
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 56 57 58 59 60 61
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 AÑO 6
62 63 64 65 66 67
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 68 69 70 71 72 73
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 AÑO 7
74 75 76 77 78 79
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 80 81 82 83 84 85
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 AÑO 8
86 87 88 89 90 91
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 92 93 94 95 96 97
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 AÑO 9
98 99 100 101 102 103
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
218,750.00 218,750.00
145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33 145,833.33
20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 104 105 106 107 108 109
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67

20,833.33 20,833.33
125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00 125,000.00
104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67 104,166.67
 AÑO 10
110 111 112 113 114 115
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67

104,166.67 104,166.67
 116 117 118 119 120
291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67 291,666.67
PRECIOS

AÑO
MES PRECIO $ MES 1 2 3
oct. 2002 27.53 PRECIO $ 29.78 31.03 37.34
nov. 2002 24.54 PRECIO FINAL $ 29.78 31.03 37.34
dic. 2002 27.89 PRECIO TALARA 51.80 52.93 58.61
ene. 2003 30.75
feb. 2003 32.88
PROYECCIÓN DE PRECIOS
mar. 2003 30.36
abr. 2003 25.56 140

may. 2003 26.06 120

jun. 2003 27.92
100
jul. 2003 28.59
80
ago. 2003 29.68
sep. 2003 26.88 60
oct. 2003 29.01 40
nov. 2003 29.12
20
dic. 2003 29.97
ene. 2004 31.37 0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 10110611
feb. 2004 31.33
mar. 2004 33.67 PRECIO INTERNACIONAL PRECIO TALARA
abr. 2004 33.71
may. 2004 37.56
jun. 2004 35.54
jul. 2004 37.89
ago. 2004 42.08
sep. 2004 41.6
oct. 2004 46.88
nov. 2004 42.13
dic. 2004 39.04
ene. 2005 42.97
feb. 2005 44.82
mar. 2005 50.94
abr. 2005 50.64
may. 2005 47.83
jun. 2005 53.89
jul. 2005 56.37
ago. 2005 61.89
sep. 2005 61.69
oct. 2005 58.19
nov. 2005 55.04
dic. 2005 56.43
ene. 2006 62.46
feb. 2006 59.7
mar. 2006 60.93
abr. 2006 67.97
may. 2006 68.68
jun. 2006 68.29
jul. 2006 72.45
ago. 2006 71.81
sep. 2006 62.12
oct. 2006 57.91
nov. 2006 58.14
dic. 2006 60.99
ene. 2007 53.52
feb. 2007 57.56
mar. 2007 60.6
abr. 2007 65.06
may. 2007 65.16
jun. 2007 68.19
jul. 2007 73.6
ago. 2007 70.13
sep. 2007 76.76
oct. 2007 81.97
nov. 2007 91.34
dic. 2007 89.52
ene. 2008 90.69
feb. 2008 93.39
mar. 2008 101.84
abr. 2008 108.76
may. 2008 122.63
jun. 2008 131.52
jul. 2008 132.83
ago. 2008 114.57
sep. 2008 99.66
oct. 2008 72.69
nov. 2008 53.97
dic. 2008 41.34
ene. 2009 43.86
feb. 2009 41.84
mar. 2009 46.65
abr. 2009 50.28
may. 2009 58.15
jun. 2009 69.15
jul. 2009 64.67
ago. 2009 71.63
sep. 2009 68.35
oct. 2009 74.08
nov. 2009 77.55
 dic. 2009 74.88
ene. 2010 77.12
feb. 2010 74.76
mar. 2010 79.3
abr. 2010 84.18
may. 2010 75.62
jun. 2010 74.73
jul. 2010 74.58
ago. 2010 75.83
sep. 2010 76.12
oct. 2010 81.72
nov. 2010 84.53
dic. 2010 90.01
ene. 2011 92.69
feb. 2011 97.91
mar. 2011 108.65
abr. 2011 116.24
may. 2011 108.07
jun. 2011 105.85
jul. 2011 107.92
ago. 2011 100.49
sep. 2011 100.82
oct. 2011 99.85
nov. 2011 105.41
dic. 2011 104.23
ene. 2012 107.07
feb. 2012 112.69
mar. 2012 117.79
abr. 2012 113.67
may. 2012 104.09
jun. 2012 90.73
jul. 2012 96.75
ago. 2012 105.27
sep. 2012 106.28
oct. 2012 103.41
nov. 2012 101.17
dic. 2012 101.19
ene. 2013 105.1
feb. 2013 107.64
mar. 2013 102.52
abr. 2013 98.85
may. 2013 99.37
jun. 2013 99.74
jul. 2013 105.26
ago. 2013 108.16
sep. 2013 108.76
oct. 2013 105.43
nov. 2013 102.63
dic. 2013 105.48
ene. 2014 102.1
feb. 2014 104.83
mar. 2014 104.04
abr. 2014 104.87
may. 2014 105.71
jun. 2014 108.37
jul. 2014 105.23
ago. 2014 100.05
sep. 2014 95.85
oct. 2014 86.08
nov. 2014 76.99
dic. 2014 60.7
ene. 2015 47.11
feb. 2015 54.79
mar. 2015 52.83
abr. 2015 57.54
may. 2015 62.51
jun. 2015 61.31
jul. 2015 54.34
ago. 2015 45.69
sep. 2015 46.28
oct. 2015 46.96
nov. 2015 43.11
dic. 2015 36.57
ene. 2016 29.78
feb. 2016 31.03
mar. 2016 37.34
abr. 2016 40.75
may. 2016 45.94
jun. 2016 47.69
jul. 2016 44.13
ago. 2016 44.87
sep. 2016 45.04
oct. 2016 49.29
nov. 2016 45.26
dic. 2016 52.62
ene. 2017 53.59
feb. 2017 54.35
mar. 2017 50.9
abr. 2017 52.16
may. 2017 49.89
 jun. 2017 46.17
jul. 2017 47.66
ago. 2017 49.94
sep. 2017 52.95
oct. 2017 54.92
Nov-17 58.15
Dec-17 69.15
Jan-18 64.67
Feb-18 71.63
Mar-18 68.35
Apr-18 74.08
May-18 77.55
Jun-18 74.88
Jul-18 77.12
Aug-18 74.76
Sep-18 79.3
Oct-18 84.18
Nov-18 75.62
Dec-18 74.73
Jan-19 74.58
Feb-19 75.83
Mar-19 76.12
Apr-19 81.72
May-19 84.53
Jun-19 90.01
Jul-19 92.69
Aug-19 97.91
Sep-19 108.65
Oct-19 116.24
Nov-19 108.07
Dec-19 105.85
Jan-20 107.92
Feb-20 100.49
Mar-20 100.82
Apr-20 99.85
May-20 105.41
Jun-20 104.23
Jul-20 107.07
Aug-20 112.69
Sep-20 117.79
Oct-20 113.67
Nov-20 104.09
Dec-20 90.73
Jan-21 96.75
Feb-21 105.27
Mar-21 106.28
Apr-21 103.41
May-21 101.17
Jun-21 101.19
Jul-21 105.1
Aug-21 107.64
Sep-21 102.52
Oct-21 98.85
Nov-21 99.37
Dec-21 99.74
Jan-22 105.26
Feb-22 108.16
Mar-22 108.76
Apr-22 105.43
May-22 102.63
Jun-22 105.48
Jul-22 102.1
Aug-22 104.83
Sep-22 104.04
Oct-22 104.87
Nov-22 105.71
Dec-22 108.37
Jan-23 105.23
Feb-23 100.05
Mar-23 95.85
Apr-23 86.08
May-23 76.99
Jun-23 60.7
Jul-23 47.11
Aug-23 54.79
Sep-23 52.83
Oct-23 57.54
Nov-23 62.51
Dec-23 61.31
Jan-24 54.34
Feb-24 45.69
Mar-24 46.28
Apr-24 46.96
May-24 43.11
Jun-24 36.57
Jul-24 29.78
Aug-24 31.03
Sep-24 37.34
Oct-24 40.75
Nov-24 45.94
Dec-24 47.69
Jan-25 44.13
Feb-25 44.87
Mar-25 45.04
Apr-25 49.29
May-25 45.26
Jun-25 52.62
Jul-25 53.59
Aug-25 54.35
Sep-25 50.9
Oct-25 52.16
Nov-25 49.89
Dec-25 46.17
Jan-26 47.66
Feb-26 49.94
Mar-26 52.95
Apr-26 54.92
May-26 50.64
Jun-26 47.83
Jul-26 53.89
Aug-26 56.37
Sep-26 61.89
Oct-26 61.69
Nov-26 58.19
Dec-26 55.04
Jan-27 56.43
Feb-27 62.46
Mar-27 59.7
Apr-27 60.93
May-27 67.97
Jun-27 68.68
Jul-27 68.29
Aug-27 72.45
Sep-27 71.81
Oct-27 62.12
Nov-27 57.91
Dec-27 58.14
Jan-28 60.99
Feb-28 53.52
Mar-28 57.56
Apr-28 60.6
May-28 65.06
Jun-28 65.16
Jul-28 68.19
Aug-28 73.6
 Sep-28 70.13
Oct-28 76.76
Nov-28 81.97
Dec-28 91.34
Jan-29 89.52
Feb-29 90.69
Mar-29 93.39
Apr-29 101.84
May-29 108.76
Jun-29 122.63
Jul-29 131.52
Aug-29 132.83
Sep-29 114.57
Oct-29 99.66
Nov-29 72.69
Dec-29 53.97
Jan-30 41.34
Feb-30 43.86
Mar-30 41.84

Descripción: Petróleo crudo, promedio de tres precios; Brent Fechado, Intermedio de Texas Oeste y Dubai Fateh,
Unidad: Dólares americanos por barril
Fuente: World Bank.
 AÑO 1
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
40.75 45.94 47.69 44.13 44.87 45.04 49.29 45.26
40.75 45.94 47.69 44.13 44.87 45.04 49.29 45.26
61.68 66.35 67.92 64.72 65.38 65.54 69.36 65.73

DE PRECIOS PRECIO HISTÓRICO 2002-2017

140

120

100

80

60

40

20
1 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101106111116
0
L PRECIO TALARA oct. 2002 jul. 2004 abr. 2006 ene. 2008 oct. 2009 jul. 2011 abr. 2013 ene. 2015 oct. 2016
Texas Oeste y Dubai Fateh, Dólares americanos por barril
 AÑO 2
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
52.62 53.59 54.35 50.9 52.16 49.89 46.17 47.66
52.62 53.59 54.35 50.90 52.16 49.89 46.17 47.66
72.36 73.23 73.91 70.81 71.94 69.90 66.55 67.89

. 2015 oct. 2016

2
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
49.94 52.95 54.92 58.15 69.15 64.67 71.63 68.35
49.94 52.95 54.92 58.15 69.15 64.67 71.63 68.35
69.95 72.66 74.43 77.34 87.24 83.20 89.47 86.51
 AÑO 3
28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
74.08 77.55 74.88 77.12 74.76 79.3 84.18 75.62
74.08 77.55 74.88 77.12 74.76 79.30 84.18 75.62
91.67 94.80 92.39 94.41 92.28 96.37 100.76 93.06
 AÑO 4
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
74.73 74.58 75.83 76.12 81.72 84.53 90.01 92.69
74.73 74.58 75.83 76.12 81.72 84.53 90.01 92.69
92.26 92.12 93.25 93.51 98.55 101.08 106.01 108.42
4
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51
97.91 108.65 116.24 108.07 105.85 107.92 100.49 100.82
97.91 108.65 116.24 108.07 105.85 107.92 100.49 100.82
113.12 122.79 129.62 122.26 120.27 122.13 115.44 115.74
 AÑO 5
52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59
99.85 105.41 104.23 107.07 112.69 117.79 113.67 104.09
99.85 105.41 104.23 107.07 112.69 117.79 113.67 104.09
114.87 119.87 118.81 121.36 126.42 131.01 127.30 118.68
 AÑO 6
60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67
90.73 96.75 105.27 106.28 103.41 101.17 101.19 105.1
90.73 96.75 105.27 106.28 103.41 101.17 101.19 105.10
106.66 112.08 119.74 120.65 118.07 116.05 116.07 119.59
6
68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75
107.64 102.52 98.85 99.37 99.74 105.26 108.16 108.76
107.64 102.52 98.85 99.37 99.74 105.26 108.16 108.76
121.88 117.27 113.97 114.43 114.77 119.73 122.34 122.88
 AÑO 7
76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83
105.43 102.63 105.48 102.1 104.83 104.04 104.87 105.71
105.43 102.63 105.48 102.10 104.83 104.04 104.87 105.71
119.89 117.37 119.93 116.89 119.35 118.64 119.38 120.14
 AÑO 8
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
108.37 105.23 100.05 95.85 86.08 76.99 60.7 47.11
108.37 105.23 100.05 95.85 86.08 76.99 60.70 47.11
122.53 119.71 115.05 111.27 102.47 94.29 79.63 67.40
8
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
54.79 52.83 57.54 62.51 61.31 54.34 45.69 46.28
54.79 52.83 57.54 62.51 61.31 54.34 45.69 46.28
74.31 72.55 76.79 81.26 80.18 73.91 66.12 66.65
 AÑO 9
100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107
46.96 43.11 36.57 29.78 31.03 37.34 40.75 45.94
46.96 43.11 36.57 29.78 31.03 37.34 40.75 45.94
67.26 63.80 57.91 51.80 52.93 58.61 61.68 66.35
 AÑO 10
108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115
47.69 44.13 44.87 45.04 49.29 45.26 52.62 53.59
47.69 44.13 44.87 45.04 49.29 45.26 52.62 53.59
67.92 64.72 65.38 65.54 69.36 65.73 72.36 73.23
10
116 117 118 119 120
54.35 50.9 52.16 49.89 46.17
54.35 50.90 52.16 49.89 46.17
73.91 70.81 71.94 69.90 66.55
PRODUCCION MENSUAL POR POZO
AÑO
MES 1 2 3
POZO 1
POZO 2
POZO 3
POZO 4
POZO 5
TOTAL - - -

PRODUCCION ANUALIZADA
AÑO TOTAL PRODUCCION
1 48,000.00
2 133,000.00
3 122,500.00
4 107,187.50
5 93,789.06
6 82,065.43
7 71,807.25
8 62,831.34
9 38,484.20
10 2,405.26
 PRODUCCION

AÑO 1
4 5 6 7 8
2,666.67 2,666.67 2,666.67 2,666.67 2,666.67
2,666.67 2,666.67

2,666.67 2,666.67 2,666.67 5,333.33 5,333.33

cok anual 15%

cok mensual 1.17% Chart Title
140,000.00

120,000.00

100,000.00 2
3
80,000.00 4

60,000.00 5
6
40,000.00 7
8
20,000.00
9
- 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Column B
 9 10 11 12 1
2,666.67 2,666.67 2,666.67 2,666.67 2,333.33
2,666.67 2,666.67 2,666.67 2,666.67 2,333.33
2,666.67 2,666.67 2,666.67 2,333.33
2,333.33

5,333.33 8,000.00 8,000.00 8,000.00 9,333.33

Chart Title Cha

14,000,000.00

12,000,000.00

2133.3333333333 25600 128000 10,000,000.00

1706.6666666667 20480 102400
8,000,000.00
1365.3333333333 16384 81920
1092.2666666667 13107.2 65536 6,000,000.00
873.81333333333 10485.76 52428.8
4,000,000.00
699.05066666667 8388.608 41943.04
559.24053333333 6710.8864 33554.432 2,000,000.00
447.39242666667 5368.70912 26843.5456
357.91394133333 4294.967296 21474.83648 -
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10

Column B
 AÑO 2
2 3 4 5 6
2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33
2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33
2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33
2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33
2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33
9,333.33 9,333.33 11,666.67 11,666.67 11,666.67

Chart Title

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
AÑO 2
7 8 9 10 11
2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33
2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33
2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33
2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33
2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33 2,333.33
11,666.67 11,666.67 11,666.67 11,666.67 11,666.67
 AÑO 3
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2,333.33 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67
2,333.33 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67
2,333.33 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67
2,333.33 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67
2,333.33 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67
11,666.67 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33
3
8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3
2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46
2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46
2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46
2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46
2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 2,041.67 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46
10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29
 AÑO 4
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46
1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46
1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46
1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46
1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46 1,786.46
8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29
 AÑO 5
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1,786.46 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15
1,786.46 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15
1,786.46 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15
1,786.46 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15
1,786.46 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15
8,932.29 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76
5
8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3
1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76
1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76
1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76
1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76
1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,563.15 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76
7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79
 AÑO 6
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76
1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76
1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76
1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76
1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76 1,367.76
6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79
 AÑO 7
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1,367.76 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79
1,367.76 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79
1,367.76 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79
1,367.76 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79
1,367.76 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79
6,838.79 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94
7
8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3
1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19
1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19
1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19
1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19
1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,196.79 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19
5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95
 AÑO 8
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19
1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19
1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19
1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19
1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19 1,047.19
5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95
 AÑO 9
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1,047.19 916.29 916.29 916.29
1,047.19 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29
1,047.19 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29
1,047.19 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29
1,047.19 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29
5,235.95 4,581.45 4,581.45 4,581.45 3,665.16 3,665.16 3,665.16 2,748.87
9
8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3

916.29 916.29
916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29
916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 916.29 801.754137 801.754137 801.754137
2,748.87 2,748.87 1,832.58 1,832.58 1,832.58 801.75 801.75 801.75
 AÑO 10
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

- - - - - - - -
12

-
 INGRESOS

INGRESOS MENSUALES
AÑO AÑO 1
MES 1 2 3 4 5
PRODUCCION - - - 2,666.67 2,666.67
VENTAS (p*q) - - - 164,466.67
14,000,000.00 176,922.67

12,000,000.00

INGRESOS ANUALIZADOS
10,000,000.00
AÑO 1 2 3 4 5
VENTAS (p*q) 3,225,528.00 9,709,651.00 11,302,493.13 11,620,732.81
8,000,000.00 11,241,275.66

6,000,000.00

4,000,000.00

2,000,000.00

-
1 2 3
 INGRESOS

AÑO 1
6 7 8 9 10 11
2,666.67 Chart Title
5,333.33 5,333.33 5,333.33 8,000.00 8,000.00
181,122.67 345,157.33 348,709.33 349,525.33 554,888.00 525,872.00

6 7 8 9 10
9,605,491.83 8,611,340.96 5,628,070.57 2,447,584.03 156,851.97

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
 AÑO 2
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8,000.00 9,333.33 9,333.33 9,333.33 11,666.67 11,666.67 11,666.67 11,666.67
578,864.00 683,489.33 689,873.33 660,893.33 839,346.67 815,511.67 776,451.67 792,096.67
2
8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3
11,666.67 11,666.67 11,666.67 11,666.67 11,666.67 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33
816,036.67 847,641.67 868,326.67 902,241.67 ### 849,363.96 913,308.96 883,173.96
 AÑO 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33 10,208.33
935,818.33 967,698.96 943,168.33 963,748.33 942,065.83 983,777.08 ### 949,967.08
 AÑO 4
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
10,208.33 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29
941,790.21 822,860.57 832,909.40 835,240.73 880,259.48 902,849.24 946,903.31 968,447.99
4
8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3
8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29 8,932.29 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76
### ### ### ### ### 954,522.55 902,258.60 904,579.88
 AÑO 5
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76 7,815.76
897,756.72 936,866.76 928,566.43 948,543.50 988,075.59 ### 994,969.09 927,581.64
 AÑO 6
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
7,815.76 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79
833,605.00 766,456.92 818,896.73 825,113.19 807,448.60 793,661.61 793,784.71 817,850.39
6
8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3
6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79 6,838.79 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94
833,483.86 801,970.73 779,382.22 782,582.78 784,860.09 716,480.78 732,098.86 735,330.19
 AÑO 7
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94 5,983.94
717,396.32 702,316.80 717,665.60 699,462.46 714,165.00 709,910.42 714,380.42 718,904.28
 AÑO 8
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
5,983.94 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95
733,229.82 626,779.31 602,369.34 582,577.46 536,537.80 493,702.53 416,938.33 352,897.48
8
8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3
5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95 5,235.95 4,581.45 4,581.45 4,581.45
389,088.34 379,852.13 402,047.30 425,467.69 419,812.86 338,596.81 302,930.20 305,362.95
 AÑO 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
3,665.16 3,665.16 3,665.16 2,748.87 2,748.87 2,748.87 1,832.58 1,832.58
246,533.44 233,833.66 212,260.51 142,397.03 145,489.51 161,100.35 113,024.43 121,584.41
 AÑO 10
12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1,832.58 801.75 801.75 801.75 - - - -
124,470.73 51,887.12 52,421.09 52,543.76 - - - -
10
8 9 10 11 12
- - - - -
- - - - -
COSTOS

COSTOS AÑO 1
PRODUCCION 48,000.00
COSTOS TOTALES
COSTOS FIJOS SIN DEPRECIACION 600,000.00
COSTOS VARIABLES 240,000.00
TOTAL COSTOS 840,000.00

VTAS
CVTAS
UB
GADM
GV
UO
AÑO 2 AÑO 3 AÑO 4
133,000.00 122,500.00 107,187.50

600,000.00 600,000.00 600,000.00

665,000.00 612,500.00 535,937.50
1,265,000.00 1,212,500.00 1,135,937.50
AÑO 5 AÑO 6 AÑO 7
93,789.06 82,065.43 71,807.25

600,000.00 600,000.00 600,000.00

468,945.31 410,327.15 359,036.25
1,068,945.31 1,010,327.15 959,036.25
AÑO 8 AÑO 9 AÑO 10
62,831.34 38,484.20 2,405.26

600,000.00 600,000.00 600,000.00

314,156.72 192,420.99 12,026.31
914,156.72 792,420.99 612,026.31
PLATAFORMA Y POZO

DATOS

ke 12.50%
%AP 60%
kd 5.50%
%D 40%
t 30%
N° 5

DETALLE DEL MONTO A FINANCIAR

INVERSIÓN EN ACTIVOS FIJOS 18,000,000.00
TOTAL 18,000,000.00

DETALLE BONO

AÑOS 1 2 3 4

CUPON 990,000.00 990,000.00 990,000.00 990,000.00

VALOR NOMINAL
TOTAL
 COSTO PROMEDIO PONDERADO DE CAPITAL
FUENTE DE
FINANCIAMIENTO CON MONTO COSTO FINANCIERO PARTICIPACIÓN PONDERACIÓN
TERCEROS
Bonos 18,000,000 5.50% 100.00% 5.50%
TOTAL TERCEROS 18,000,000 40% 5.50%
APORTE PROPIO 27,000,000 12.5% 60% 3.85%
TOTAL FINANCIAMIENTO 45,000,000 9.04%

990,000.00 +
18,000,000.00
18,990,000.00
 BG
VTAS ACT PASIVO
CVTAS CORR CORR
UB
GADM cxp
GV dcp
UOP ACT NO CORR PASI NO CORR
IF dlp
50 GF
UAI
IMP PATR
UN
10.0%
 ESTADO D
AÑOS 1 2
VENTAS 3,225,528.00 9,709,651.00
COSTOS OPERATIVOS - 840,000.00 - 1,265,000.00
DEPRECIACION - 6,406,250.00 - 10,562,500.00
UTILIDAD OPERATIVA - 4,020,722.00 - 2,117,849.00
GASTOS FINANCIEROS - 990,000.00 - 990,000.00
UTILIDAD ANTES DE IMPUESTOS - 5,010,722.00 - 3,107,849.00
IMPUESTO A LA RENTA 1,503,216.60 932,354.70
SALDO A CUENTA 1,503,216.60
BALANCE 1,503,216.60 2,435,571.30
IMPUESTO A LA RENTA NETO - -
UTILIDAD NETA - 5,010,722.00 - 3,107,849.00
 ESTADO DE RESULTADOS
3 4 5 6 7 8
11,302,493.13 11,620,732.81 11,241,275.66 9,605,491.83 8,611,340.96 5,628,070.57
- 1,212,500.00 - 1,135,937.50 - 1,068,945.31 - 1,010,327.15 - 959,036.25 - 914,156.72
- 10,875,000.00 - 10,875,000.00 - 10,875,000.00 - 10,875,000.00 - 10,875,000.00 - 10,875,000.00
- 785,006.87 - 390,204.69 - 702,669.65 - 2,279,835.32 - 3,222,695.30 - 6,161,086.15
- 990,000.00 - 990,000.00 - 990,000.00
- 1,775,006.87 - 1,380,204.69 - 1,692,669.65 - 2,279,835.32 - 3,222,695.30 - 6,161,086.15
532,502.06 414,061.41 507,800.89 683,950.59 966,808.59 1,848,325.85
2,435,571.30 2,968,073.36 3,382,134.77 3,889,935.66 4,573,886.26 5,540,694.85
2,968,073.36 3,382,134.77 3,889,935.66 4,573,886.26 5,540,694.85 7,389,020.69
- - - - - -
- 1,775,006.87 - 1,380,204.69 - 1,692,669.65 - 2,279,835.32 - 3,222,695.30 - 6,161,086.15
 9 10
2,447,584.03 156,851.97
- 792,420.99 - 612,026.31
- 7,968,750.00 - 3,812,500.00
- 6,313,586.96 - 4,267,674.34

- 6,313,586.96 - 4,267,674.34
1,894,076.09 1,280,302.30
7,389,020.69 9,283,096.78
9,283,096.78 10,563,399.08
- -
- 6,313,586.96 - 4,267,674.34
FLUJO DE CAJA
AÑOS 0 1 2
INGRESOS
VENTAS 3,225,528.00 9,709,651.00
TOTAL INGRESOS 3,225,528.00 9,709,651.00
EGRESOS
INVERSION PLATAFORMA - 35,000,000.00
INVERSION POZO 1 - 2,000,000.00
INVERSION POZO 2 - 2,000,000.00
INVERSION POZO 3 - 2,000,000.00
INVERSION POZO 4 - 2,000,000.00
INVERSION POZO 5 - 2,000,000.00
RECUPERACION MEDIO AMBIENTE
COSTOS OPERATIVOS - 840,000.00 - 1,265,000.00
IMPUESTO A LA RENTA NETO - -
TOTAL EGRESOS - 35,000,000.00 - 8,840,000.00 - 3,265,000.00
DEPRECIACIÓN 6,406,250.00 10,562,500.00
EMISION DE BONO
CUPON - 990,000.00 - 990,000.00
ESCUDO FISCAL 297,000.00 297,000.00
FLUJO DE CAJA - 35,000,000.00 - 3,126,750.00 6,604,500.00

- 5,254,296.00 8,257,868.00
- 6,307,472.00 6,010,069.60
- 6,379,472.00 6,007,044.48
- 6,494,067.50 5,186,360.31
- 6,027,578.75 6,599,587.03
- 5,929,472.00 6,129,651.00
 3 4 5 6 7 8

11,302,493.13 11,620,732.81 11,241,275.66 9,605,491.83 8,611,340.96 5,628,070.57

11,302,493.13 11,620,732.81 11,241,275.66 9,605,491.83 8,611,340.96 5,628,070.57

- 1,212,500.00 - 1,135,937.50 - 1,068,945.31 - 1,010,327.15 - 959,036.25 - 914,156.72

- - - - - -
- 1,212,500.00 - 1,135,937.50 - 1,068,945.31 - 1,010,327.15 - 959,036.25 - 914,156.72
10,875,000.00 10,875,000.00 10,875,000.00 10,875,000.00 10,875,000.00 10,875,000.00

- 990,000.00 - 990,000.00 - 990,000.00

297,000.00 297,000.00 297,000.00 - - -
8,969,500.00 9,046,062.50 9,113,054.69 9,864,672.85 9,915,963.75 9,960,843.28

12,521,657.50
10,016,576.40
10,321,673.22
8,728,868.55
10,399,179.98
9,774,993.13
 9 10

2,447,584.03 156,851.97
2,447,584.03 156,851.97

- 12,000,000.00
- 792,420.99 - 612,026.31
- -
- 792,420.99 - 12,612,026.31
7,968,750.00 3,812,500.00

- -
7,176,329.01 - 8,799,526.31
 INDICES DE EVALUA

AÑOS 0 1 2
FLUJO DE CAJA - 35,000,000.00 - 3,126,750.00 6,604,500.00

VALOR ACTUAL NETO 1,146,235.52

INDICES DE EVALUACION

3 4 5 6 7 8
8,969,500.00 9,046,062.50 9,113,054.69 9,864,672.85 9,915,963.75 9,960,843.28
 9 10
7,176,329.01 - 8,799,526.31
 ESTIMADO DE F

PROB F1 (F1-EF1)^2 PROB

40% - 5,254,296.00 331604820485.675 40%
10% - 6,307,472.00 227838785698.275 10%
20% - 6,379,472.00 301757529898.275 20%
5% - 6,494,067.50 440789915782.012 5%
15% - 6,027,578.75 38979142898.6063 15%
10% - 5,929,472.00 9865378648.27512 10%
100% - 36,392,358.25 1,350,835,573,411.12 100%
E(F1) - 5,830,147.39 E(F2)
VAR 244,650,217,832.47 VAR
DEV .ESTA 494,621.29 DEV .ESTA

FLUJO DE CAJA ESPERADO

COK 9%
AÑO 0 1 2
E(FN) - 7,000,000.00 - 5,830,147.39 6,967,784.23
E(VAN) 2,035,610.04

FLUJOS RELACIONADOS
COK 9%
AÑO 0 1
DESV. EST. DEL FCN 494,621.29
DESV. EST (VAN) 2,339,527.19

FLUJOS INDEPENDIENTES
COK 9%
AÑO 0 1
DESV. EST. 494,621.29
DESV. EST.^2 244,650,217,832.47
1.19
DESV. EST. (VAN) 1,409,022.91

FLUJOS RELACIONADOS
PROB (VPN<0)
PROB (Z< - 0.8701 )
PROB (VPN<0) 19.212435%
FLUJOS INDEPENDIENTES
PROB (VPN<0)
PROB (Z< - 1.4447 )
PROB (VPN<0) 7.427162%
ESTIMADO DE FLUJO DE CAJA
(En dolares)
F2 (F2-EF2)^2 PROB F3
8,257,868.00 1.6643E+12 40% 12,521,657.50
6,010,069.60 9.1722E+11 10% 10,016,576.40
6,007,044.48 9.2302E+11 20% 10,321,673.22
5,186,360.31 3.1735E+12 5% 8,728,868.55
6,599,587.03 1.3557E+11 15% 10,399,179.98
6,129,651.00 7.0247E+11 10% 9,774,993.13
38,190,580.42 7,516,061,948,933.21 100% 61,762,948.78
6,967,784.23 E(F2) 11,048,475.02
1,191,308,024,534.76 VAR 1,574,678,225,046.14
1,091,470.58 DEV .ESTA 1,254,861.84

3
11,048,475.02

2 3
1,091,470.58 1,254,861.84

2 3
1,091,470.58 1,254,861.84
1,191,308,024,534.76 1,574,678,225,046.14
1.41 1.68
 (F3-E(F3))^2
2170266617891.96
1064814762999.48
528240863031.269
5380574156260.92
421584049015.267
1621756138178.22
11,187,236,587,377.10
 PROB F1 (F1-EF1)^2
40% - 5,254,296.00 331604820485.675
10% - 6,307,472.00 227838785698.275
20% - 6,379,472.00 301757529898.275
5% - 6,494,067.50 440789915782.012
15% - 6,027,578.75 38979142898.6063
10% - 5,929,472.00 9865378648.27512
100% - 36,392,358.25 1,350,835,573,411.12
E(F1) - 5,830,147.39
VAR 244,650,217,832.47
DEV .ESTA 494,621.29

AÑO 0 1
E(FCN) - 35,000,000.00 -5830147.3875
TMAR CORR 9%
INFLACION 3.2%
TMAR REAL 5.66%
FACTOR REAL 1.0566
FACTOR ACUMULADO 1.0566
EQUIV ACTUAL - 35,000,000.00 - 5,517,894.45
E(VAN) - 25,320,069.60
 ESTIMADO DE FLUJO DE CAJA
(En dolares)
PROB F2 (F2-EF2)^2 PROB
40% 8,257,868.00 1.6643E+12 40%
10% 6,010,069.60 9.1722E+11 10%
20% 6,007,044.48 9.2302E+11 20%
5% 5,186,360.31 3.1735E+12 5%
15% 6,599,587.03 1.3557E+11 15%
10% 6,129,651.00 7.0247E+11 10%
100% 38,190,580.42 7,516,061,948,933.21 100%
E(F2) 6,967,784.23 E(F2)
VAR 1,191,308,024,534.76 VAR
DEV .ESTA 1091470.57886814 DEV .ESTA

2 3
6967784.2263125 11048475.0205047
9% 9%
2.5% 2.2%
7.32% 7.63%
1.0732 1.0763
1.1339 1.2204
6,144,969.45 9,052,855.40

COEFICIENTE DE VARIACION
 F3 (F3-E(F3))^2
12,521,657.50 2170266617891.96
10,016,576.40 1064814762999.48
10,321,673.22 528240863031.269
8,728,868.55 5380574156260.92
10,399,179.98 421584049015.267
9,774,993.13 1621756138178.22
61,762,948.78 11,187,236,587,377.10
11,048,475.02
1,574,678,225,046.14
1,254,861.84

AÑO 0 1 2
DESV. ESTAN. 494,621.29 1,091,470.58
FACTOR REAL 1.1164 1.1164
FACTOR ACUMULADO 1.1517
PRODUCTO 1.1164 1.2857
EQUIV ACTUAL 219,145,882,773.92 926,561,256,549.21
DESV. ESTAN. (VAN) 1,497,586.45

-0.06
 3
1,254,861.84
1.2463
1.1517
1.4354
1,097,058,029,283.70