Evaluación de Métodos para el pronóstico de Ventas de la empresa

Periodo Año Ventas (miles)

1 1998 17,444.00
2 1999 20,460.00
3 2000 29,644.00
4 2001 21,507.00
5 2002 11,612.00
6 2003 21,943.00
7 2004 9,087.00
8 2005 13,650.00
9 2006 11,694.00
10 2007 25,404.00
11 2008 38,686.00
12 2009 41,344.00
13 2010 37,498.00
14 2011 56,139.00
15 2012 48,331.00
16 2013 51,076.00
17 2014 65,666.00
18 2015 51,491.00
19 2016 63,017.00
20 2017 64,850.00
21 2018
 PROMEDIO MEDIA GEOMÉTRICA

PERIODO AÑO Ventas (miles) DIF. RECAUDO PERIODO AÑO

1 1998 17,444.00 1 1998
2 1999 20,460.00 3,016.00 2 1999
3 2000 29,644.00 9,184.00 3 2000
4 2001 21,507.00 - 8,137.00 4 2001
5 2002 11,612.00 - 9,895.00 5 2002
6 2003 21,943.00 10,331.00 6 2003
7 2004 9,087.00 - 12,856.00 7 2004
8 2005 13,650.00 4,563.00 8 2005
9 2006 11,694.00 - 1,956.00 9 2006
10 2007 25,404.00 13,710.00 10 2007
11 2008 38,686.00 13,282.00 11 2008
12 2009 41,344.00 2,658.00 12 2009
13 2010 37,498.00 - 3,846.00 13 2010
14 2011 56,139.00 18,641.00 14 2011
15 2012 48,331.00 - 7,808.00 15 2012
16 2013 51,076.00 2,745.00 16 2013
17 2014 65,666.00 14,590.00 17 2014
18 2015 51,491.00 - 14,175.00 18 2015
19 2016 63,017.00 11,526.00 19 2016
20 2017 64,850.00 1,833.00 20 2017
21 2018 67,345.05 47,406.00 21 2018

PROMEDIO 2,495.05 MG

MG
MG

70,000.00
Column B Column C
Linear (Column C) Column D 60,000.00
70000 50,000.00
60000 40,000.00
50000 30,000.00
40000 20,000.00

30000 10,000.00

20000 0.00
0 5 10 1
10000 -10,000.00

0 -20,000.00
0 5 10 15 20 25
-10000 Column H Linear (
Column I
-20000
 MEDIA GEOMÉTRICA TASA MEDIA DE VARIACION

Ventas (miles) TASA DE VARIACION PERIODO AÑO Ventas (miles)

17,444.00 1 1998 17,444.00
20,460.00 $ 3,016.00 17% 2 1999 20,460.00
29,644.00 $ 9,184.00 45% 3 2000 29,644.00
21,507.00 -$ 8,137.00 -27% 4 2001 21,507.00
11,612.00 -$ 9,895.00 -46% 5 2002 11,612.00
21,943.00 $10,331.00 89% 6 2003 21,943.00
9,087.00 -$12,856.00 -59% 7 2004 9,087.00
13,650.00 $ 4,563.00 50% 8 2005 13,650.00
11,694.00 -$ 1,956.00 -14% 9 2006 11,694.00
25,404.00 $13,710.00 117% 10 2007 25,404.00
38,686.00 $13,282.00 52% 11 2008 38,686.00
41,344.00 $ 2,658.00 7% 12 2009 41,344.00
37,498.00 -$ 3,846.00 -9% 13 2010 37,498.00
56,139.00 $18,641.00 50% 14 2011 56,139.00
48,331.00 -$ 7,808.00 -14% 15 2012 48,331.00
51,076.00 $ 2,745.00 6% 16 2013 51,076.00
65,666.00 $14,590.00 29% 17 2014 65,666.00
51,491.00 -$14,175.00 -22% 18 2015 51,491.00
63,017.00 $11,526.00 22% 19 2016 63,017.00
64,850.00 $ 1,833.00 3% 20 2017 64,850.00
$ 49,034.77 $47,406.00 21 2018 $ 69,490.25
0%

-0.2438740357 √(𝑛&𝑃𝑛/𝑃𝑜) - 1
-$ 15,815.23 r $ 3.72
$ 49,034.77 r $ 0.07
r $ 4,640.25
70,000.00 r $ 69,490.25
60,000.00
70,000.00
50,000.00
40,000.00 60,000.00

30,000.00 50,000.00
20,000.00 40,000.00
10,000.00
30,000.00
0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 20,000.00
10,000.00
10,000.00
20,000.00
0.00
Column H Linear (Column H) 0 5 10 15 20
Column I
0 15 20 25
 EMPRESA QUADRO

N=4 4

AÑOS Dt Ft Et IEtI MAPE

1 17,444.00
2 20,460.00
3 29,644.00
4 21,507.00
5 11,612.00 22,263.8 - 10,651.75 10,651.8 91.73
6 21,943.00 20,805.8 1,137.25 1,137.3 5.18
7 9,087.00 21,176.5 - 12,089.50 12,089.5 133.04
8 13,650.00 16,037.3 - 2,387.25 2,387.3 17.49
9 11,694.00 14,073.0 - 2,379.00 2,379.0 20.34
10 25,404.00 14,093.5 11,310.50 11,310.5 44.52 70000
11 38,686.00 14,958.8 23,727.25 23,727.3 61.33
60000
12 41,344.00 22,358.5 18,985.50 18,985.5 45.92
13 37,498.00 29,282.0 8,216.00 8,216.0 21.91 50000
14 56,139.00 35,733.0 20,406.00 20,406.0 36.35
40000

Axis Title
15 48,331.00 43,416.8 4,914.25 4,914.3 10.17
16 51,076.00 45,828.0 5,248.00 5,248.0 10.27 30000
17 65,666.00 48,261.0 17,405.00 17,405.0 26.51
20000
18 51,491.00 55,303.0 - 3,812.00 3,812.0 7.40
19 63,017.00 54,141.0 8,876.00 8,876.0 14.09 10000
20 64,850.00 57,812.5 7,037.50 7,037.5 10.85 0
21 61,256.0 1 2

Suma de errores 95,943.8 158,582.8 557.1

CFE 95,943.8
E 5,996.5
MAD 9,911.4
MAPE 557.1

Dt Demanda
Ft Ponóstico
Et Error de pronóstico del periodo t
IEtI Error de pronostico absoluto del periodo t
CFE Suma acumulada de los errores de pronóstico
E Error promedio del pronóstico
MAD Desviación media absoluta
 RELACIÓN DEMANDA- PRONÓSTICO
70000

60000

50000
AÑOS
40000 Dt
Axis Title

Ft
30000

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
 Para el método de promedio movil ponderado utilizaremos las
ponderaciones de 50%, 30% y 20%.
4 0.4
3 0.3
2 0.2
1 0.1

N=4
AÑOS Dt Ft Et IEtI MAPE
1 17,444.00
2 20,460.00
3 29,644.00
4 21,507.00
5 11,612.00 23,332.40 - 11,720.4 11,720.4 100.93
6 21,943.00 19,071.70 2,871.3 2,871.3 13.09
7 9,087.00 19,526.60 - 10,439.6 10,439.6 114.89
8 13,650.00 14,690.80 - 1,040.8 1,040.8 7.62
9 11,694.00 13,735.90 - 2,041.9 2,041.9 17.46
10 25,404.00 12,784.30 12,619.7 12,619.7 49.68
11 38,686.00 17,308.50 21,377.5 21,377.5 55.26
12 41,344.00 26,799.40 14,544.6 14,544.6 35.18
13 37,498.00 34,393.60 3,104.4 3,104.4 8.28
14 56,139.00 37,680.00 18,459.0 18,459.0 32.88
15 48,331.00 45,842.40 2,488.6 2,488.6 5.15
16 51,076.00 47,808.10 3,267.9 3,267.9 6.40
17 65,666.00 49,907.30 15,758.7 15,758.7 24.00
18 51,491.00 56,869.30 - 5,378.3 5,378.3 10.45
19 63,017.00 55,344.50 7,672.5 7,672.5 12.18
20 64,850.00 58,894.90 5,955.1 5,955.1 9.18
21 61,709.90

Suma de errores 77,498.3 138,740.3 502.61

CFE 77,498.3
E 4,843.64
MAD 8,671.27
MAPE 502.61
 RELACIÓN DEMANDA-PRONÓSTICO
70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

AÑOS Dt Ft
Periodos Ventas (miles) MT (2/4+1) EMA
1 17,444.00 - -
2 20,460.00 - -
3 29,644.00
4 21,507.00
5 11,612.00 22,263.75 0.40 22,263.75
6 21,943.00 20,805.75 0.40 22,135.45
7 9,087.00 21,176.50 0.40 16,916.07 Ventas
8 13,650.00 16,037.25 0.40 15,609.64
70,000.00
9 11,694.00 14,073.00 0.40 14,043.39
10 25,404.00 14,093.50 0.40 18,587.63 60,000.00
11 38,686.00 14,958.75 0.40 26,626.98
50,000.00
12 41,344.00 22,358.50 0.40 32,513.79
13 37,498.00 29,282.00 0.40 34,507.47 40,000.00
14 56,139.00 35,733.00 0.40 43,160.08
30,000.00
15 48,331.00 43,416.75 0.40 45,228.45
16 51,076.00 45,828.00 0.40 47,567.47 20,000.00
17 65,666.00 48,261.00 0.40 54,806.88
18 51,491.00 10,000.00
55,303.00 0.40 53,480.53
19 63,017.00 54,141.00 0.40 57,295.12 -
20 64,850.00 57,812.50 0.40 60,317.07 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
21 - 61,256.00
 Ventas SMA EMA

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
 Evaluación de Métodos para el pronóstico de Ventas de la empresa P
1
n= 4 2
3
4

Pronostico
Periodos Ventas (miles) SMA SMA doble Valor de "a" Valor de"b" DMA Et
1 17,444.00 - -
2 20,460.00 - -
3 29,644.00 -
4 21,507.00 -
5 11,612.00 22,263.75
6 21,943.00 20,805.75
7 9,087.00 21,176.50
8 13,650.00 16,037.25 20,070.81 12,003.69 - 2,689.04 -
9 11,694.00 14,073.00 18,023.13 10,122.88 - 2,633.42 9,314.65 2,379.35
10 25,404.00 14,093.50 16,345.06 11,841.94 - 1,501.04 7,489.46 17,914.54
11 38,686.00 14,958.75 14,790.63 15,126.88 112.08 10,340.90 28,345.10
12 41,344.00 22,358.50 16,370.94 28,346.06 3,991.71 15,238.96 26,105.04
13 37,498.00 29,282.00 20,173.19 38,390.81 6,072.54 32,337.77 5,160.23
14 56,139.00 35,733.00 25,583.06 45,882.94 6,766.63 44,463.35 11,675.65
15 48,331.00 43,416.75 32,697.56 54,135.94 7,146.13 52,649.56 - 4,318.56
16 51,076.00 45,828.00 38,564.94 53,091.06 4,842.04 61,282.06 - 10,206.06
17 65,666.00 48,261.00 43,309.69 53,212.31 3,300.88 57,933.10 7,732.90
18 51,491.00 55,303.00 48,202.19 62,403.81 4,733.88 56,513.19 - 5,022.19
19 63,017.00 54,141.00 50,883.25 57,398.75 2,171.83 67,137.69 - 4,120.69
20 64,850.00 57,812.50 53,879.38 61,745.63 2,622.08 59,570.58 5,279.42
21 61,256.00 57,128.13 65,383.88 2,751.92 64,367.71
60,000.00

50,000.00

40,000.00

30,000.00

20,000.00

10,000.00

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Ventas MSA DMA

 Evaluación de Métodos para el pronóstico de Ventas de la empresa
Periodo Año Ventas (miles) Ymedia Xmedia xy
1 1998 17,444.00 35,027.15 10.5 17,444.00
2 1999 20,460.00 40,920.00
3 2000 29,644.00 88,932.00
4 2001 21,507.00 86,028.00
5 2002 11,612.00 58,060.00
6 2003 21,943.00 131,658.00
7 2004 9,087.00 63,609.00
8 2005 13,650.00 109,200.00
9 2006 11,694.00 105,246.00
10 2007 25,404.00 254,040.00
11 2008 38,686.00 425,546.00
12 2009 41,344.00 496,128.00
13 2010 37,498.00 487,474.00
14 2011 56,139.00 785,946.00
15 2012 48,331.00 724,965.00
16 2013 51,076.00 817,216.00
17 2014 65,666.00 1,116,322.00
18 2015 51,491.00 926,838.00
19 2016 63,017.00 1,197,323.00
20 2017 64,850.00 1,297,000.00
21 2018 64,619.68 TOTALES 35,027.15 10.50 9,229,895.00

b= Media Y - (a* Media X) 5,434.6

a= ∑xy - nȲẊ 1874193.5 2,818

∑x^2- nẊ^2 665.00

Solucion Del Modelo

Y(x) = 5434.62105263158 + 2818.33609022556 X

Y(21) 64,619.68 21
Y() -
a empresa
(X)2 (Xmedia)2
1 110.25
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
169
196
225
256
289
324
361
400
2,870.00 110.25

Column C Linear (Column C)

70,000.00

60,000.00 f(x) = 2818.33609022556 x + 5434.62105263158

R² = 0.750105874217002
50,000.00

40,000.00
Axis Title

30,000.00

20,000.00

10,000.00

0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25
Axis Title
 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.1

Error Sumatoria
PERIODO VENTA ALFA= 0,1 ALFA= 0,5 ALFA= 0,9 MAD
absoluto error absoluto

1 17,444.00
2 20,460.00 17,444.00 17,444.00 17,444.00 3,016.00 3,016.00 1,508.00
3 29,644.00 17,745.60 18,952.00 20,158.40 11,898.40 14,914.40 4,971.47
4 21,507.00 18,935.44 24,298.00 28,695.44 2,571.56 17,485.96 4,371.49
5 11,612.00 19,192.60 22,902.50 22,225.84 7,580.60 25,066.56 5,013.31
6 21,943.00 18,434.54 17,257.25 12,673.38 3,508.46 28,575.02 4,762.50
7 9,087.00 18,785.38 19,600.13 21,016.04 9,698.38 38,273.40 5,467.63
8 13,650.00 17,815.54 14,343.56 10,279.90 4,165.54 42,438.95 5,304.87
9 11,694.00 17,398.99 13,996.78 13,312.99 5,704.99 48,143.94 5,349.33
10 25,404.00 16,828.49 12,845.39 11,855.90 8,575.51 56,719.45 5,671.94
11 38,686.00 17,686.04 19,124.70 24,049.19 20,999.96 77,719.40 7,065.40
12 41,344.00 19,786.04 28,905.35 37,222.32 21,557.96 99,277.37 8,273.11
13 37,498.00 21,941.83 35,124.67 40,931.83 15,556.17 114,833.53 8,833.35
14 56,139.00 23,497.45 36,311.34 37,841.38 32,641.55 147,475.08 10,533.93
15 48,331.00 26,761.61 46,225.17 54,309.24 21,569.39 169,044.48 11,269.63
16 51,076.00 28,918.54 47,278.08 48,928.82 22,157.46 191,201.93 11,950.12
17 65,666.00 31,134.29 49,177.04 50,861.28 34,531.71 225,733.64 13,278.45
18 51,491.00 34,587.46 57,421.52 64,185.53 16,903.54 242,637.18 13,479.84
19 63,017.00 36,277.82 54,456.26 52,760.45 26,739.18 269,376.36 14,177.70
20 64,850.00 38,951.73 58,736.63 61,991.35 25,898.27 295,274.63 14,763.73
21 41,541.56 61,793.32 64,564.13

*** Alfa 0,5 con un MAD 70,000.00

De 7787.08
60,000.00

** Para un pronostico de 61,793 para el periodo 21

50,000.00

40,000.00

30,000.00

20,000.00

10,000.00

-
1 2 3
 0.5 0.9

Error Sumatoria Error Sumatoria

MAD MAD
absoluto error absoluto absoluto error absoluto

3,016.00 3,016.00 1,508.00 3,016.00 3,016.00 1,508.00

10,692.00 13,708.00 4,569.33 9,485.60 12,501.60 4,167.20
2,791.00 16,499.00 4,124.75 7,188.44 19,690.04 4,922.51
11,290.50 27,789.50 5,557.90 10,613.84 30,303.88 6,060.78
4,685.75 32,475.25 5,412.54 9,269.62 39,573.50 6,595.58
10,513.13 42,988.38 6,141.20 11,929.04 51,502.54 7,357.51
693.56 43,681.94 5,460.24 3,370.10 54,872.63 6,859.08
2,302.78 45,984.72 5,109.41 1,618.99 56,491.62 6,276.85
12,558.61 58,543.33 5,854.33 13,548.10 70,039.73 7,003.97
19,561.30 78,104.63 7,100.42 14,636.81 84,676.54 7,697.87
12,438.65 90,543.29 7,545.27 4,121.68 88,798.22 7,399.85
2,373.33 92,916.61 7,147.43 3,433.83 92,232.05 7,094.77
19,827.66 112,744.27 8,053.16 18,297.62 110,529.67 7,894.98
2,105.83 114,850.11 7,656.67 5,978.24 116,507.90 7,767.19
3,797.92 118,648.02 7,415.50 2,147.18 118,655.08 7,415.94
16,488.96 135,136.98 7,949.23 14,804.72 133,459.80 7,850.58
5,930.52 141,067.50 7,837.08 12,694.53 146,154.33 8,119.68
8,560.74 149,628.24 7,875.17 10,256.55 156,410.87 8,232.15
6,113.37 155,741.61 7,787.08 2,858.65 159,269.53 7,963.48

70,000.00

60,000.00

50,000.00

40,000.00

30,000.00

20,000.00

10,000.00

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

VENTA Column C ALFA= 0,5 ALFA= 0,9