The study assesses the impacts of a formula-based tariff reduction of non-agricultural goods on B... more The study assesses the impacts of a formula-based tariff reduction of non-agricultural goods on Brazilian economy, using a multi-region and multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We used a Swiss Formula tariff cut, considering three different coefficients. The CGE model used in the simulation was the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and all tariff shocks were calculated from MAcMap database. Besides analyzing macroeconomic and sector results, we have tested the sensibility of the result regarding Armington elasticities increase and the implementation of a simplified agricultural tariff liberalization.
This study assesses the impacts of the incorporation of Venezuela in Mercosur, using a multi-sect... more This study assesses the impacts of the incorporation of Venezuela in Mercosur, using a multi-sector and multi- region CGE model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The study is divided into 5 sections besides the introduction. In section 2, it presents the legal framework of Venezuela's accession to Mercosur. In section 3, it describes the current trade flow between Mercosur and Venezuela, as well as the conditions of market access, stressing the importance of Venezuela to exports from Mercosur and the relatively higher level of protection applied by Venezuela, as compared to the protection of the Mercosur. In the next section, it describes the tariff shocks applied in three simulations, each of them representatives of the incorporation of Venezuela to Mercosur, as well as the closing of the model. In section 5, the main results are presented and discussed. These results are compared to the ones generated in Section 6, which introduces a short run closure, allowing for le...
1 INTRODUÇÃO Neste capítulo serão reportados os resultados de nossas simulações envolvendo altera... more 1 INTRODUÇÃO Neste capítulo serão reportados os resultados de nossas simulações envolvendo alterações no grau de abertura da economia brasileira. Usaremos o modelo CGE exposto no capítulo anterior para implementar uma análise contrafactual. Nosso objetivo é identificar as transformações ocorridas na estrutura de empregos e salários quan-do simulamos uma diminuição no grau de abertura da economia brasileira. Esse tipo de exercício visa contribuir para um maior esclareci-mento de qual o grau de abertura desejável para a economia brasilei-ra. É comum ouvirmos que o processo de abertura por que passou a economia brasileira foi exagerado. No entanto, esse tipo de coloca-ção não aparece vinculado a nenhum fundamento analítico com o rigor desejado. Os Capítulos 4 e 5 já nos forneceu elementos para analisar essa questão do ponto de vista teórico. No entanto, ficou evidente que Cap7.pmd 14/03/03, 13:54 199 200 CARLOS HENRIQUE CORSEUIL – SAMIR CURY não há um consenso entre as alternativas teó...
O Estudo Visa Avaliar os Impactos de Propostas Alternativas de Redução da Proteção Tarifária de B... more O Estudo Visa Avaliar os Impactos de Propostas Alternativas de Redução da Proteção Tarifária de Bens Não-Agrícolas Sobre a Economia Brasileira Usando um Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável. Foram Simulados os Impactos da Implementação de Cortes Tarifários de Acordo com Diferentes Coeficientes para a Fórmula Suíça. as Simulações Foram Realizadas com o Modelo Gtap e Todos os Choques Tarifários Foram
O Objetivo deste Estudo é Avaliar os Impactos da Entrada da Venezuela no Mercosul Utilizando para... more O Objetivo deste Estudo é Avaliar os Impactos da Entrada da Venezuela no Mercosul Utilizando para Tanto o Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável Multi-Setorial e Multi-Regional Denominado Global Trade Analysis Project (Gtap). Além da Introdução, o Estudo Está Dividido em Outras 5 Seções. na Seção 2, são Analisados os Documentos Mais Relevantes Assinados Pelos Estados-Parte, Ressaltando a Relativa Rapidez da
This research intends to assess the efficiency of t he Governmental income transfer programs in a... more This research intends to assess the efficiency of t he Governmental income transfer programs in achieving their purposes of alleviating poverty and reducing the inequality in income distribution in Brazil. After evaluating the impacts of the current programs, we also intend to simulate the effects o f alternative designs for these programs in order to generate proposals that can be used as inputs that can help to improve the income transfer programs in ach ieving their purposes in a more strong and effective way.
The study aims at evaluating the impacts of alternative formula-based tariff reduction of non- ag... more The study aims at evaluating the impacts of alternative formula-based tariff reduction of non- agricultural goods on Brazilian economy using a computable general equilibrium model. It were simulated the implementation of Swiss formula tariff cut, considering different coefficients. The simulations were carried out with the GTAP model and all tariff shocks were calculated from MAcMap database. Besides analyzing macroeconomic and sectoral results, it also was have tested the sensibility of the result regarding Armington elasticities increase and the implementation of a simultaneous agricultural tariff liberalization.
Persistent and very high-income inequality is a well-known feature of the Brazilian economy. How... more Persistent and very high-income inequality is a well-known feature of the Brazilian economy. However, from 2001 to 2014, the Gini index registered an unprecedented fall of 13.5% percent, combined with significant poverty reduction. Previous studies using partial equilibrium analysis have pointed out the important role of federal government transfer programs in this inequality reduction, particularly in the first period (2001-2005) when the new trend started. The aim of this research is to evaluate the efficiency of the two most important cash transfer programs, “Bolsa Família (PBF)” and “Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC)”, in achieving their purpose of alleviating poverty and reducing inequality in Brazil’s income distribution. The simulation results, using an integrated modeling approach, confirm the importance of these programs in reducing inequality from 2003 to 2005. However, the effect on poverty alleviation was not strong. Finally, the methodological approach reveals some important mechanisms that were not present in previous analyses, such as the role of the tax structure that finances these policies.
The study assesses the impacts of a formula-based tariff reduction of non-agricultural goods on B... more The study assesses the impacts of a formula-based tariff reduction of non-agricultural goods on Brazilian economy, using a multi-region and multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We used a Swiss Formula tariff cut, considering three different coefficients. The CGE model used in the simulation was the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and all tariff shocks were calculated from MAcMap database. Besides analyzing macroeconomic and sector results, we have tested the sensibility of the result regarding Armington elasticities increase and the implementation of a simplified agricultural tariff liberalization.
This study assesses the impacts of the incorporation of Venezuela in Mercosur, using a multi-sect... more This study assesses the impacts of the incorporation of Venezuela in Mercosur, using a multi-sector and multi- region CGE model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The study is divided into 5 sections besides the introduction. In section 2, it presents the legal framework of Venezuela's accession to Mercosur. In section 3, it describes the current trade flow between Mercosur and Venezuela, as well as the conditions of market access, stressing the importance of Venezuela to exports from Mercosur and the relatively higher level of protection applied by Venezuela, as compared to the protection of the Mercosur. In the next section, it describes the tariff shocks applied in three simulations, each of them representatives of the incorporation of Venezuela to Mercosur, as well as the closing of the model. In section 5, the main results are presented and discussed. These results are compared to the ones generated in Section 6, which introduces a short run closure, allowing for le...
1 INTRODUÇÃO Neste capítulo serão reportados os resultados de nossas simulações envolvendo altera... more 1 INTRODUÇÃO Neste capítulo serão reportados os resultados de nossas simulações envolvendo alterações no grau de abertura da economia brasileira. Usaremos o modelo CGE exposto no capítulo anterior para implementar uma análise contrafactual. Nosso objetivo é identificar as transformações ocorridas na estrutura de empregos e salários quan-do simulamos uma diminuição no grau de abertura da economia brasileira. Esse tipo de exercício visa contribuir para um maior esclareci-mento de qual o grau de abertura desejável para a economia brasilei-ra. É comum ouvirmos que o processo de abertura por que passou a economia brasileira foi exagerado. No entanto, esse tipo de coloca-ção não aparece vinculado a nenhum fundamento analítico com o rigor desejado. Os Capítulos 4 e 5 já nos forneceu elementos para analisar essa questão do ponto de vista teórico. No entanto, ficou evidente que Cap7.pmd 14/03/03, 13:54 199 200 CARLOS HENRIQUE CORSEUIL – SAMIR CURY não há um consenso entre as alternativas teó...
O Estudo Visa Avaliar os Impactos de Propostas Alternativas de Redução da Proteção Tarifária de B... more O Estudo Visa Avaliar os Impactos de Propostas Alternativas de Redução da Proteção Tarifária de Bens Não-Agrícolas Sobre a Economia Brasileira Usando um Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável. Foram Simulados os Impactos da Implementação de Cortes Tarifários de Acordo com Diferentes Coeficientes para a Fórmula Suíça. as Simulações Foram Realizadas com o Modelo Gtap e Todos os Choques Tarifários Foram
O Objetivo deste Estudo é Avaliar os Impactos da Entrada da Venezuela no Mercosul Utilizando para... more O Objetivo deste Estudo é Avaliar os Impactos da Entrada da Venezuela no Mercosul Utilizando para Tanto o Modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável Multi-Setorial e Multi-Regional Denominado Global Trade Analysis Project (Gtap). Além da Introdução, o Estudo Está Dividido em Outras 5 Seções. na Seção 2, são Analisados os Documentos Mais Relevantes Assinados Pelos Estados-Parte, Ressaltando a Relativa Rapidez da
This research intends to assess the efficiency of t he Governmental income transfer programs in a... more This research intends to assess the efficiency of t he Governmental income transfer programs in achieving their purposes of alleviating poverty and reducing the inequality in income distribution in Brazil. After evaluating the impacts of the current programs, we also intend to simulate the effects o f alternative designs for these programs in order to generate proposals that can be used as inputs that can help to improve the income transfer programs in ach ieving their purposes in a more strong and effective way.
The study aims at evaluating the impacts of alternative formula-based tariff reduction of non- ag... more The study aims at evaluating the impacts of alternative formula-based tariff reduction of non- agricultural goods on Brazilian economy using a computable general equilibrium model. It were simulated the implementation of Swiss formula tariff cut, considering different coefficients. The simulations were carried out with the GTAP model and all tariff shocks were calculated from MAcMap database. Besides analyzing macroeconomic and sectoral results, it also was have tested the sensibility of the result regarding Armington elasticities increase and the implementation of a simultaneous agricultural tariff liberalization.
Persistent and very high-income inequality is a well-known feature of the Brazilian economy. How... more Persistent and very high-income inequality is a well-known feature of the Brazilian economy. However, from 2001 to 2014, the Gini index registered an unprecedented fall of 13.5% percent, combined with significant poverty reduction. Previous studies using partial equilibrium analysis have pointed out the important role of federal government transfer programs in this inequality reduction, particularly in the first period (2001-2005) when the new trend started. The aim of this research is to evaluate the efficiency of the two most important cash transfer programs, “Bolsa Família (PBF)” and “Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC)”, in achieving their purpose of alleviating poverty and reducing inequality in Brazil’s income distribution. The simulation results, using an integrated modeling approach, confirm the importance of these programs in reducing inequality from 2003 to 2005. However, the effect on poverty alleviation was not strong. Finally, the methodological approach reveals some important mechanisms that were not present in previous analyses, such as the role of the tax structure that finances these policies.
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Papers by Samir Haddad Cury
analysis have pointed out the important role of federal government transfer programs in this inequality reduction, particularly in the first period (2001-2005) when the new trend started. The aim of this research is to evaluate the efficiency of the two most important cash transfer programs, “Bolsa Família (PBF)” and “Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC)”, in achieving their purpose of alleviating poverty and reducing inequality in Brazil’s income distribution. The simulation results,
using an integrated modeling approach, confirm the importance of these programs in reducing inequality from 2003 to 2005. However, the effect on poverty alleviation was not strong. Finally, the methodological approach reveals some important mechanisms that were not present in previous analyses, such as the role of the tax structure that finances these policies.
analysis have pointed out the important role of federal government transfer programs in this inequality reduction, particularly in the first period (2001-2005) when the new trend started. The aim of this research is to evaluate the efficiency of the two most important cash transfer programs, “Bolsa Família (PBF)” and “Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC)”, in achieving their purpose of alleviating poverty and reducing inequality in Brazil’s income distribution. The simulation results,
using an integrated modeling approach, confirm the importance of these programs in reducing inequality from 2003 to 2005. However, the effect on poverty alleviation was not strong. Finally, the methodological approach reveals some important mechanisms that were not present in previous analyses, such as the role of the tax structure that finances these policies.