Microsimulation

En este trabajo se analizan los efectos de la Reforma del Impuesto sobre la renta efectuada en España en 1999 sobre la oferta de trabajo de las unidades familiares. Partiendo de la estimació n de una ecuación de oferta laboral de los matrimonios a partir de los datos del PHOGUE94, se estudian los efectos de la Reforma sobre el bienestar por medio del cálculo de la variación equivalente y compensatoria asociadas a la misma. Los resultados permiten inferir unas ganancias de bienestar que, en el caso de las mujeres, son mayores cuando se encuentran desocupadas a consecuencia del incremento esperado en su participación laboral y aumentan a medida que lo hace la renta; en el caso de los hombres, son mayores cuando están ocupados y los resultados por grupos de renta no son concluyentes.

TARKI Social Research Institute was awarded a contract by the European Commission to prepare a feasibility study on “Monitoring pension developments through micro socioeconomic
instruments based on individual data sources”. From the onset the project was designed so as to

- Inform on the state of development of instruments used by Member States to monitor life time earnings and related acquisition of pension rights
- Provide descriptions of available tools, such as data sets and models of prospective pension outcomes based on individual data sources
- Identify and characterise tools, in particular where they already exist and where they could be further developed (notably needs for adequate data sources, need for building models).
- Analyse and describe both the administrative and survey data used for the prospective models of pension outcomes across all Member States (where such instruments exist) and elaborate a classification of instruments built to assess future developments
of pension benefits, based on individual information
- Characterise the various results available and review them as well as those likely to be derived through such instruments

Microscopic traffic simulation models are considered to be valuable and powerful tools for analyzing traffic operations in a wide range of planning and modeling tasks. However, modeling large-scale urban traffic networks is particularly challenging task even on a macroscopic level.
The challenges are multifold when attempting to represent large urban networks in high-fidelity manner with operational details. While many previous studies proposed various simulation model calibration and validation methods, these processes are still considered to be more an art than science, especially if performed manually. This study describes such a manually-crafted simulation building, calibration and validation process that features a major urban grid network, encompassed with 6 busy arterials and 160 signalized intersections. A VISSIM model was calibrated and validated by using variety of traffic data, from two temporally, spatially, and characteristically different field data-collection campaigns. The accuracy and sensitivity of the model was repetitively fine-tuned and tested, until a chosen calibration criteria for several variables (volume, speed and travel times) was successfully met. Validation tests were performed with a completely fresh dataset at the end of the process. While the calibration efforts were a full success, the validation results were only half successful. Potential factors that could have impacted the mixed validation results are higher sensitivity of the validation data and seasonal shifts in traffic demand and distribution. Future research will focus on collecting and testing new validation data sets, which will improve robustness and reliability of the simulation model.

Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2010 methodology for freeway operations contain procedures for calculating traffic  performance measures both for undersaturated and oversaturated flow conditions. However, one of the limitations regarding oversaturated freeway weaving segments is that the HCM procedures have not been extensively calibrated based on field observations on U.S. freeways. This study validates
the HCM2010 methodology for oversaturated freeway weaving segment by comparing space mean speed and density obtained from HCM procedure to those generated by a microsimulation model. A VISSIM model is extensively calibrated and validated based on NGSIM field data for the US 101 Highway. Abundance of the NGSIM data is utilized to calibrate and validate the VISSIM model. Results show that HCM methodology has
significant limitations and while in some cases it can reproduce density correctly, the study finds that speeds estimated by the HCM methodology significantly differ from those observed in the field.

The accuracy of the micro-simulation modelʼs generated vehicle activity data used in the emissions modelling depends on how the dynamic behaviours of vehicles are being represented in the model. The dynamic behaviour of every single vehicle is constantly modelled during the simulation phase in accordance with different vehicle internal behaviour models. It is therefore imperative that the model reproduces the same variability of these behaviours in the real-world. This research paper investigated two main approaches in studying how car dynamics are represented in AIMSUN traffic micro-simulation model. The first approach was to use field trajectories data in the calibration of car dynamics parameters of the car-following internal behavioural model in AIMSUN, the second approach was to compare the simulated vehicles activity modelsʼ outputs with field vehicles activity data obtained from an Instrumented Vehicle (IV) driving along the study route. The field-obtained vehicle trajectories contained second-by-second speeds and acceleration data, which have been utilised in the evaluation of the AIMSUN model performance at both macro and micro levels. The findings showed that the calibration of vehicle dynamics in car-following models has reduced the values of accelerations and decelerations in the simulations. However, this did not influence the vehicle trajectories behaviour that continued to show sharp accelerations and decelerations, which are not representative of the real-world behaviours. The research showed that the use of IV real-world data to evaluate the car-following internal behaviour model provided an effective and computationally efficient validation methodology, which offered a further level of accuracy to the available standard validation procedures.

Dans cette étude, nous utilisons les tables de mortalité par diplôme récemment publiées par Blanpain (2016b) pour améliorer de façon notable la projection de la mortalité différentielle présente dans le modèle Destinie 2, qui ne s’appuyait le plus souvent que sur les projections de mortalité de l’Insee, ventilées par âge et par sexe. Nous montrons que la méthode relationnelle de proportionnalité prédit mieux l'évolution de la mortalité différentielle sur le passé récent que la méthode de relationnalité de Brass, mise en œuvre dans d'autres modèles de microsimulation. L'introduction d'une mortalité hétérogène selon le niveau de diplôme doit principalement permettre de reproduire la corrélation positive observée entre espérance de vie et montant de pension. Pour la quantifier, nous comparons les élasticités de survie au montant de la pension de retraite, par sexe et par âge, obtenues par microsimulation à celles estimées sur les données de l'Échantillon Interrégimes de Retraités (EIR). Les élasticités simulées sont plus faibles que les élasticités empiriques, en particulier pour les femmes. Pour les hommes, elles sont néanmoins statistiquement significatives et au moins égales aux deux tiers des valeurs observée empiriquement. Au niveau agrégé, cette introduction révise également faiblement à la hausse les dépenses projetées de retraite.

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) collectively represent an individual modeling method that, along with two related approaches, Microsimulation (MSM) and Cellular Automata (CA, also known as Artificial Neural Networks or ANN), has received attention as a demographic forecasting tool in the past 20 or so years. This development corresponds to observations made by Smith et al. (2001: 367) that while population projections were primarily made at the national and state levels until the 1970s, they started being routinely made for lower levels of geography such as census tracts and block groups, which, in turn, generated demand for even lower levels of geography such as tax assessor files, block faces, and street segments. They observed that this trend implied that projections would eventually be made for individual addresses, households, and people. Indeed, this observation has been borne out and the reason is largely due to the development of individual ­modeling methods, including ABM.

BACKGROUND
Pressures to keep immigration rates at relatively high levels are likely to persist in most developed countries. At the same time, immigrant cohorts are becoming more and more diverse, leading host societies to become increasingly heterogeneous across multiple dimensions. For scholars who study demographic or socio-economic behaviours, the need to account for ethno-cultural “super-diversity” brings new challenges.
OBJECTIVE
The main objective of this paper is to present a framework for the prospective analysis of super-diversity in several high immigration countries.
METHODS
We developed microsimulation models that simultaneously project several population dimensions for Canada, the United States and countries of the European Union, with the aim of studying the consequences of alternate future population and migration trends.
RESULTS
The paper presents the projected progression of three indicators of diversity: percentage of foreign-born population, percentage of the population using a non-official language at home and percentage of non-Christians. It also examines the projected changes in thelabour force by education levels and language. Using alternative scenarios, we also
show that the proportion of highly educated in the US and EU28 labour force could increase by 11 and 15 percentage points respectively if future immigrants were selected as in Canada. Finally, the paper proposes a new longitudinal indicator that counts the number of years lived as active and inactive over the life course for foreign- and native-born cohorts.
CONTRIBUTION
The microsimulation models provide much more informative results than more traditional cohort-component models to study the future effects of ethno-cultural superdiversity on high immigration countries.

Cette thèse s’intéresse à la question de la précarité énergétique en France. De nature empirique, elle a pour principale motivation de confronter les idées aux données afin d’apporter des éléments d’aide à la décision pour les acteurs publics. Elle a été conduite au CIRED, sous la co-direction de Céline Guivarch (CIRED) et de Philippe Quirion (CIRED).

Using two linked simulation models, we examine the public expenditure costs and distributional effects of potential reforms to long-term care funding in the UK. Changes to the means tests for user contributions to care costs are compared with options for the abolition of these means tests (‘free’ personal care). The latter generally cost more than the former and benefit higher income groups more than those on lower incomes (measuring income in relation to the age-specific income distribution). Reforms to the means tests target benefits towards those on lower incomes. However, the highest income group are net losers if free personal care is financed by a higher tax rate on higher incomes and the effect on the whole population considered.

Redistribution by the State in Austria In Austria, the available potential of redistribution by the state is of a scale similar to that in the Scandinavian countries, Belgium, France and Italy. In 2010, the overall tax to GDP ratio stood at 40.8 percent, 4.2 percentage points above the EU 15 average. Redistribution primarily takes place through public expenditures. Due to the regressive structure of indirect taxes and social insurance contributions, and the comparatively low weight of taxes on income and wealth, the total redistributive effect of the tax system is only modest. The redistribution effect is much larger when it comes to public welfare and public services: apart from old-age pensions, monetary transfers and benefits in kind mostly relate to the areas of health care, education and families, and are enjoyed by all households irrespective of their income. Consequently, their relative importance is much greater for low-income than for high-income households. Being more highly exposed to risks such as unemployment and illness, benefits relating to unemployment , social assistance, housing subsidies, survivor's pensions, long-term care benefits, as well as some family benefits such as the childcare allowance and the public child care infrastructure are typically taken up more frequently by low-income households for whom they constitute a substantial part of their income. Between 2000 and 2010, the distribution of primary incomes (market incomes and old-age pensions) became substantially more unequal, especially in the second half of the decade – a development that was not offset by the state's redistribution efforts. Thus, the distribution of secondary household incomes (primary incomes plus monetary and in-kind public transfers, net of all direct and indirect taxes), which had remained relatively stable between 2000 and 2005, was found to be more unequal in 2010 than in the mid-2000s.

For households, taxing carbon raises the cost of the energy they use to heat their home and to travel. This paper studies the distributional impacts of the recently introduced French carbon tax and the design of compensation measures. Using a microsimulation model built on a representative sample of the French population from 2012, I simulate for each household the taxes levied on its consumption of energy for housing and transport. Without recycling, the carbon tax is regressive and increases fuel poverty. However, I show how compensation measures can offset these impacts. A flat cash transfer offsets tax regressivity by redistributing <60% of households' contribution. This result falls to 17% when the transfer is targeted at low income households. Furthermore, I find that targeting the cash transfer reduces fuel poverty by up to 50% below its pre-tax level with a 30.50€/tCO2 carbon tax. These results demonstrate compensating households is achievable at reasonable cost relative to carbon tax revenues. Carbon taxation even constitutes an opportunity to finance ambitious policies to fight fuel poverty.

The economic crisis affecting Cyprus is likely to have considerable impact on the income distribution. Our analysis provides an early assessment of the potential distributional shifts. Using microsimulation techniques we take into account austerity measures that affect wages, taxes, social benefits and contribution rates. The analysis also accommodates for the impact of unemployment rise on the income distribution. We focus on policy changes introduced over the period 2009-2012 and we extend the analysis further in 2013 and 2014, thus taking into account a number of measures that have been announced in the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding agreement. Our aim is to obtain the ceteris paribus impact of the crisis on inequality and poverty, as well as to estimate how the burden of austerity has been shared across certain population groups.

BACKGROUND
In most developed countries the demographic regime is characterised by low fertility, high immigration, and population ageing. This regime impacts on the size of the labour force population, the ethno-cultural composition, and potential productivity.
OBJECTIVE
We examine the prospective impacts of two sociodemographic changes, namely increasing education and increasing immigration levels, on the size and skills of the workforce aged 25 to 64 years old for the time period 2011–2061.
METHODS
We use microsimulation models to project the population of Austria and Canada by age, sex, and several other socioeconomic and ethno-cultural dimensions. Using ‘whatif’ scenarios, we measure the impact of different immigration rates and immigrant selection patterns on the size and average literacy skills of the projected workforce. We also examine the potential effects of different assumptions about future educational attainment on the projection outcomes.
RESULTS
The results show that the volume of immigration heavily influences the expansion of the workforce .In terms of education among the general population, the rise in educational attainment is positively correlated with higher skill levels. However, increased immigration can override the effect that increasing education levels have on advancing workforce skills.
CONTRIBUTION
This paper shows the extent to which Austria and Canada have adopted diametrically opposed strategies regarding the future development of their workforces. Assuming that current policy goals hold true in the coming decades, Austria is likely to rely on a higher-skilled but declining (in size) workforce, whereas Canada will rely on a fastgrowing but less-skilled and more culturally diversified workforce.

We present a micro-founded simulation model that formalizes the " ready, willing, and able " framework, originally used to explain historical fertility decline, to the practice of prenatal sex selection. The model generates sex ratio at birth (SRB) distortions from the bottom up and attempts to quantify plausible levels, trends, and interactions of son preference, technology diffusion, and fertility decline that underpin SRB trajectories at the macro level. Calibrating our model for South Korea, we show how even as the proportion with a preference for sons was declining, SRB distortions emerged due to rapid diffusion of prenatal sex determination technology combined with small but growing propensities to abort at low birth parities. Simulations reveal that relatively low levels of son preference (about 20 % to 30 % wanting one son) can result in skewed SRB levels if technology diffuses early and steadily, and if fertility falls rapidly to encourage sex-selective abortion at low parities. Model sensitivity analysis highlights how the shape of sex ratio trajectories is particularly sensitive to the timing and speed of prenatal sex-determination technology diffusion. The maximum SRB levels reached in a population are influenced by how the readiness to abort rises as a function of the fertility decline.