Papers by Lourdes Montesdeoca
Review of development economics, Jun 17, 2024
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Estado y comunes, Jul 12, 2019
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Working Paper Series, 2021
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WIDER Working Paper
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Received: 22 November 2017 Acepted: 02 March 2018 Effective assessment of a borrower's variou... more Received: 22 November 2017 Acepted: 02 March 2018 Effective assessment of a borrower's various credit indexes is key for unravelling the problem of information asymmetry in the context of Peer-to-Peer Lending (P2P). Mitigating adverse selection of high default potential borrowers continues to plague P2P lending platforms. In order to understand which factors determine borrower credit status (ie. loan approval, loan repayment potential, risk of default), this study renders an Artificial Neural Network Model on one of the most popular P2P lending platforms. Our results show that the interest rate, the ratio of loan to income and the loan term are the most important indicators in reflecting the borrower’s credit status, while the frequency of inquiries, the borrowing category have a relatively low degree of importance. This study finds that the borrower’s credit index status is better explained at the lower quantiles and becomes more difficult to discern at higher quantiles. This w...
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The European Journal of Development Research
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Estado & comunes, revista de políticas y problemas públicos
El objetivo del presente artículo es medir la contribución que los flujos de la inversión extranj... more El objetivo del presente artículo es medir la contribución que los flujos de la inversión extranjera directa (IED) española han tenido en el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú, dado que España ha sido por mucho tiempo un importante proveedor de capitales no solo para estos tres países sino para toda la región. En el caso de las tres economías, los montos de entrada han sido muy significativos en los últimos años, con 1233 millones en 2016 y 2285 millones de dólares en 2017 en conjunto. Además de las estimaciones econométricas, se ha considerado un análisis crítico sobre el marco teórico-conceptual de la IED en Latinoamérica y una descripción de las estadísticas oficiales proporcionadas por la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (Cepal), así como datos oficiales de los Bancos Centrales de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú y del Ministerio de Industria, Comercio y Turismo de España. Los resultados de la investigación cuantitativa establecen que existe una e...
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WIDER Working Paper
This paper makes use of tax–benefit microsimulation techniques to quantify the distributional eff... more This paper makes use of tax–benefit microsimulation techniques to quantify the distributional effects of COVID-19 in Ecuador and the role of tax–benefit policies in mitigating the immediate impact of the economic shocks. Our results show a dramatic increase in income poverty and inequality between December 2019 and June 2020. The poverty rate, measured with the national poverty line, goes up from 25.7 to 58.2 per cent over this period and extreme poverty increases from 9.2 to 38.6 per cent. Inequality measured by the Gini coefficient increases substantially from 0.461 to 0.592. On average, household disposable income drops by 41 per cent. The new Family Protection Grant provides income protection for the poorest income decile. However, overall tax–benefit policies do little to mitigate the losses in household incomes due to the pandemic.
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UNU WIDER Working Paper series, 2018
This paper aims to evaluate the progressivity of different fuel subsidies in Ecuador as well as t... more This paper aims to evaluate the progressivity of different fuel subsidies in Ecuador as well as the budgetary and distributional effects of a potential elimination of such subsidies. Our analysis makes use of ECUAMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for Ecuador, together with representative household microdata from ENIGHUR 2011–12. Our results show that domestic gas subsidy tends to be progressive, whereas gasoline and diesel subsidies tend to be regressive. Our simulations show that eliminating all fuel subsidies would increase poverty and inequality due to the importance of domestic gas subsidy for low-income households. Eliminating only gasoline and diesel subsidies would not impact poverty and inequality, while allowing to reduce government expenditure. We further show that using part of the budget saved from the elimination of fuel subsidies to increase social assistance payments in Ecuador, could be a mechanism to compensate low-income families for their loss following f...
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My own Papers by Lourdes Montesdeoca
United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), 2021
The results presented in this report are derived using ECUAMOD version 2.0 running on EUROMOD sof... more The results presented in this report are derived using ECUAMOD version 2.0 running on EUROMOD software. The report describes the different tax-benefit policies in place, how the microsimulation model picks up these different provisions, and the database on which the model runs. It concludes with a validation of ECUAMOD results against external data sources. For further information on access to ECUAMOD and other SOUTHMOD models see the SOUTHMOD page. The ECUAMOD model and its documentation in this country report has been prepared within the UNU-WIDER project on 'SOUTHMOD-simulating tax and benefit policies for development', which is part of a larger research project on 'The economics and politics of taxation and social protection'. For more information, see the SOUTHMOD project page.
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Drafts by Lourdes Montesdeoca
UNU WIDER Working Paper series, 2018
This paper aims to evaluate the progressivity of different fuel subsidies in Ecuador as well as t... more This paper aims to evaluate the progressivity of different fuel subsidies in Ecuador as well as the budgetary and distributional effects of a potential elimination of such subsidies. Our analysis makes use of ECUAMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for Ecuador, together with representative household microdata from ENIGHUR 2011–12. Our results show that domestic gas subsidy tends to be progressive, whereas gasoline and diesel subsidies tend to be regressive. Our simulations show that eliminating all fuel subsidies would increase poverty and inequality due to the importance of domestic gas subsidy for low-income households. Eliminating only gasoline and diesel subsidies would not impact poverty and inequality, while allowing to reduce government expenditure. We further show that using part of the budget saved from the elimination of fuel subsidies to increase social assistance payments in Ecuador, could be a mechanism to compensate low-income families for their loss following fuel subsidy elimination
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UNU Wider Working Paper Series, 2019
This paper aims to evaluate the progressivity of different fuel subsidies in Ecuador as well as t... more This paper aims to evaluate the progressivity of different fuel subsidies in Ecuador as well as the budgetary and distributional effects of a potential elimination of such subsidies. Our analysis makes use of ECUAMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for Ecuador, together with representative household microdata from ENIGHUR 2011–12. Our results show that domestic gas subsidy tends to be progressive, whereas gasoline and diesel subsidies tend to be regressive. Our simulations show that eliminating all fuel subsidies would increase poverty and inequality due to the importance of domestic gas subsidy for low-income households. Eliminating only gasoline and diesel subsidies would not impact poverty and inequality, while allowing to reduce government expenditure. We further show that using part of the budget saved from the elimination of fuel subsidies to increase social assistance payments in Ecuador, could be a mechanism to compensate low-income families for their loss following fuel subsidy elimination.
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Papers by Lourdes Montesdeoca
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