- Researcher in Omran fully aware of MENA region, specialized in Syrian developments. Contributor to the Wartime and Post-Conflict in Syria project (MEDirections).edit
Research Interests:
يبقى احتمال انهيار نظام الأسد قائماً، تحت وطأة الأزمات التي يعايشها، بالمقابل هنالك ديناميات معاكسة لإعادة توطيد سلطته، عبر التلاعب بشبكات النخب، والتحصل على شرعية وأدوات، تتيحها مساحات المناورة المتشكلة خارجياً، مع ما يعتري تلك العملية... more
يبقى احتمال انهيار نظام الأسد قائماً، تحت وطأة الأزمات التي يعايشها، بالمقابل هنالك ديناميات معاكسة لإعادة توطيد سلطته، عبر التلاعب بشبكات النخب، والتحصل على شرعية وأدوات، تتيحها مساحات المناورة المتشكلة خارجياً، مع ما يعتري تلك العملية من تحديات جمة، وفي ظل منح الأسد هدايا مجانية دونما مقابل، وغياب فعل سياسي جاد من المعارضة لترتيب إدارة مناطقها محلياً، والتحرك دبلوماسياً وتفعيل دور الجاليات السورية خارجياً، لا يتوقع إلحاق الهزيمة بنظام الأسد في المدى المنظور، بالتعويل فقط على الأزمات التي يشهدها.
Research Interests:
In May 2018, the Syrian regime regained control of the city of Rastan, in northern Homs, through a combination of force and negotiations. Since then, the regime has relied on certain local intermediaries who are loyal to and dependent on... more
In May 2018, the Syrian regime regained control of the city of Rastan, in northern Homs, through a combination of force and negotiations. Since then, the regime has relied on certain local intermediaries who are loyal to and dependent on it. These intermediaries either belong to Rastan’s minor families or come from outside the city. This policy of weakening more powerful Rastani families – whose members had been affiliated with the army and the Baath Party and who enjoyed considerable influence under Hafez al-Assad – mimics the policies implemented by Bashar al-Assad in the pre-war decade. Drawing on interviews and online sources, this study examines intermediaries from Rastani families in an extended context, from the era of Hafez al-Assad to the uprising and to the subsequent recapture of the city. It discusses why the regime decided to rely on some family members and to marginalise others. It also asks whether the new intermediaries are capable of fulfilling the regime’s ambition...
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
In May 2018, the Syrian regime regained control of the city of Rastan, in northern Homs, through a combination of force and negotiations. Since then, the regime has relied on certain local intermediaries who are loyal to and dependent on... more
In May 2018, the Syrian regime regained control of the city of Rastan, in northern Homs, through a combination of force and negotiations. Since then, the regime has relied on certain local intermediaries who are loyal to and dependent on it. These intermediaries either belong to Rastan’s minor families or come from outside the city. This policy of weakening more powerful Rastani families – whose members had been affiliated with the army and the Baath Party and who enjoyed considerable influence under Hafez al-Assad – mimics the policies implemented by Bashar al-Assad in the pre-war decade. Drawing on interviews and online sources, this study examines intermediaries from Rastani families in an extended context, from the era of Hafez al-Assad to the uprising and to the subsequent recapture of the city. It discusses why the regime decided to rely on some family members and to marginalise others. It also asks whether the new intermediaries are capable of fulfilling the regime’s ambitions to dominate the area ‘post- reconciliation.’
Research Interests:
The role of the Syrian Army’s Fourth Division in its traditional stronghold areas—including its military housing in Zahrieh, Sumaria and Sabura—differs from its role in the areas that have come under its jurisdiction during the conflict,... more
The role of the Syrian Army’s Fourth Division in its traditional stronghold areas—including its military housing in Zahrieh, Sumaria and Sabura—differs from its role in the areas that have come under its jurisdiction during the conflict, such as Darayya. This is due to several factors, including the nature of the administration, its existing networks, and its security centralization. While there has been little change in its traditional areas, its role in the areas it has expanded into during the conflict makes it difficult for those communities to recover and reduces opportunities for displaced persons to return.
Research Interests:
This paper argues that the Syrian associative situation in regime-held areas during the conflict has evolved according to the regime’s needs and has consequently involved different roles and responsibilities. While attracting... more
This paper argues that the Syrian associative situation in regime-held areas during the conflict has evolved according to the regime’s needs and has consequently involved different roles and responsibilities. While attracting international funds to compensate for the lack of public funds to provide basic services has remained a constant mission for these non-state actors, they have also assisted al-Assad regime in recruiting volunteers, arming militants, controlling access to aid and paying compensation to families of fallen soldiers and officers. The sheer volume of assistance needed to respond to the humanitarian crisis has also led to the emergence of a new class of philanthropists which includes warlords and militia leaders, increasing their autonomy and bestowing new responsibilities and authority on them. However, this obligation has also expanded their sphere of influence among the regime’s social base and within its closest circles, creating new rivalries and sometimes putting them at odds with the presidential palace.
Research Interests:
The 4th Division, an elite formation in the Syrian regime’s army, has undertaken war economy activities using businessmen, brokers and smugglers and is gradually taking over trade in scrap materials, convoy protection and the levying of... more
The 4th Division, an elite formation in the Syrian regime’s army, has undertaken war economy activities using businessmen, brokers and smugglers and is gradually taking over trade in scrap materials, convoy protection and the levying of fees on the transit of goods. For a period of time it also controlled the management of vital facilities, such as ports. Based on interviews with experts, economists, merchants, defected officers and workers in the 4th Division and its security office, and information available on websites and social media, this study reviews the changes that have taken place in the 4th Division, its increasingly hegemonic involvement in war economy activities, the implications of this and the factors that limit this hegemony.
Research Interests:
طالت الفرقة الرابعة تغييراتٌ خلال سنوات الصراع، حيث تولّى قيادتها ماهر الأسد منذ العام ٢٠١٨، وتنامى دور مكتبها الأمني وتوضّحت هيكليته، واتّسع نطاق صلاحياته وانتشاره الجغرافي خارج العاصمة دمشق. ولا يزال اللواء غسان بلال يترأّس المكتب منذ... more
طالت الفرقة الرابعة تغييراتٌ خلال سنوات الصراع، حيث تولّى قيادتها ماهر الأسد منذ العام ٢٠١٨، وتنامى دور مكتبها الأمني وتوضّحت هيكليته، واتّسع نطاق صلاحياته وانتشاره الجغرافي خارج العاصمة دمشق. ولا يزال اللواء غسان بلال يترأّس المكتب منذ تشكيله في أواخر تسعينيات القرن الماضي، على الرغم من محاولات الروس لإقصائه. هذا التنامي في دور الفرقة الرابعة إنما يوحي برغبة النظام في تعزيز مؤسساته الخاصة، وإعادة تركيز القوة فيها.
يدير مكتب أمن الفرقة أنشطة اقتصاد الحرب بالتعاون مع شبكة من رجال الأعمال والوسطاء المقرّبين، ممَّن اختيروا بعناية، وأوكِلَت إليهم مهام متعدّدة لدعم النظام، ما منحهم فرصةً أكبر لتطوير دورهم في المنظومة السياسية-الاقتصادية على المستوى المحلي، وربما الوطني. والواقع أن المكتب عمل على تعزيز هيمنته على اقتصاد الحرب منذ العام ٢٠١٦، ليتمكّن من ترسيخ هذه الهيمنة بتسهيلاتٍ من النظام بحلول العام ٢٠١٨.
وقد طرأ تحوّل على طريقة تدخّل الفرقة الرابعة في إدارة مؤسسات الدولة الاقتصادية خلال الصراع. ففي حين كانت تكتفي بالتأثير غير المباشر على عملية اختيار مسؤولي هذه المؤسسات قبل الصراع، والاعتماد على وكلاء لها في إدارتها، أصبحت تديرها بشكل مباشر، كما في مرفأي طرطوس واللاذقية. مع ذلك، تبقى هيمنتها هذه رهن العلاقة بروسيا، وتوجّهات القصر الجمهوري.
يدير مكتب أمن الفرقة أنشطة اقتصاد الحرب بالتعاون مع شبكة من رجال الأعمال والوسطاء المقرّبين، ممَّن اختيروا بعناية، وأوكِلَت إليهم مهام متعدّدة لدعم النظام، ما منحهم فرصةً أكبر لتطوير دورهم في المنظومة السياسية-الاقتصادية على المستوى المحلي، وربما الوطني. والواقع أن المكتب عمل على تعزيز هيمنته على اقتصاد الحرب منذ العام ٢٠١٦، ليتمكّن من ترسيخ هذه الهيمنة بتسهيلاتٍ من النظام بحلول العام ٢٠١٨.
وقد طرأ تحوّل على طريقة تدخّل الفرقة الرابعة في إدارة مؤسسات الدولة الاقتصادية خلال الصراع. ففي حين كانت تكتفي بالتأثير غير المباشر على عملية اختيار مسؤولي هذه المؤسسات قبل الصراع، والاعتماد على وكلاء لها في إدارتها، أصبحت تديرها بشكل مباشر، كما في مرفأي طرطوس واللاذقية. مع ذلك، تبقى هيمنتها هذه رهن العلاقة بروسيا، وتوجّهات القصر الجمهوري.