Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation
interven... more Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts’ selection of best case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one systematic and transparent way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal “blacklist” that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation would have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This demonstrates that SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and permutations on policies that are implemented in just a few locations.
In the first comprehensive survey of tern colonies in the Honduras Bay Islands, 46 cays were surv... more In the first comprehensive survey of tern colonies in the Honduras Bay Islands, 46 cays were surveyed in 2005 and 2006 and three species of terns were observed nesting in colonies on ten individual cays. Apparent colony turnover was high between years for Least (Sternula antillarum) and Roseate (Sterna dougallii) Terns, from 71% to 100%, respectively. The first nest records of Bridled Tern (Onychoprion anaethetus) for Honduras are documented.
This paper reviews the occurrence and identification of orange-billed terns (genus Thalasseus) in... more This paper reviews the occurrence and identification of orange-billed terns (genus Thalasseus) in eastern North America, with emphasis on molt, ageing, and the limits of identification among similar taxa: Lesser Crested Tern (T. bengalensis), Cayenne Tern (T. sandvicensis eurygnatha), and especially Elegant Tern (T. elegans), Elegant being the species named in most records of vagrant orange-billed terns considered herein. Also treated are possible drivers of population changes and of vagrancy, such as El Niño events in the Pacific.
Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation
interven... more Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts’ selection of best case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one systematic and transparent way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal “blacklist” that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation would have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This demonstrates that SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and permutations on policies that are implemented in just a few locations.
In the first comprehensive survey of tern colonies in the Honduras Bay Islands, 46 cays were surv... more In the first comprehensive survey of tern colonies in the Honduras Bay Islands, 46 cays were surveyed in 2005 and 2006 and three species of terns were observed nesting in colonies on ten individual cays. Apparent colony turnover was high between years for Least (Sternula antillarum) and Roseate (Sterna dougallii) Terns, from 71% to 100%, respectively. The first nest records of Bridled Tern (Onychoprion anaethetus) for Honduras are documented.
This paper reviews the occurrence and identification of orange-billed terns (genus Thalasseus) in... more This paper reviews the occurrence and identification of orange-billed terns (genus Thalasseus) in eastern North America, with emphasis on molt, ageing, and the limits of identification among similar taxa: Lesser Crested Tern (T. bengalensis), Cayenne Tern (T. sandvicensis eurygnatha), and especially Elegant Tern (T. elegans), Elegant being the species named in most records of vagrant orange-billed terns considered herein. Also treated are possible drivers of population changes and of vagrancy, such as El Niño events in the Pacific.
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interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods
generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating
innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions
often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts’ selection of best
case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one systematic and transparent
way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in
outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to
limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a
multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic
production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal
“blacklist” that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to
credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land
plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation
for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated
purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation
would have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible
estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas
and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower
deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This demonstrates that
SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate
local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and permutations on policies that
are implemented in just a few locations.
interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods
generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating
innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions
often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts’ selection of best
case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one systematic and transparent
way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in
outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to
limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a
multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic
production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal
“blacklist” that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to
credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land
plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation
for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated
purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation
would have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible
estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas
and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower
deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This demonstrates that
SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate
local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and permutations on policies that
are implemented in just a few locations.