In this paper, the behavior of China's imports during the period 1980-92 is studied. The esti... more In this paper, the behavior of China's imports during the period 1980-92 is studied. The estimation of cointegration and error correction mechanisms enables the separation of the long-run and short-run determinants of imports in China. The estimated cointegrating vector using Johansen's cointegration approach shows that, in the long run, China's imports are sensitive to changes in output, relative prices, and foreign exchange reserves. It also shows that the short-run output elasticity of imports is much greater than that in the long run, suggesting that import substitution may have been an important factor over the sample period. The forecasting ability of a conventional partial adjustment import function is then compared with that of the Johansen cointegration model; the Johansen model is shown to outperform the conventional one in forecasting accuracy.
ABSTRACT India’s unprecedented growth since the mid-1990s and increased macroeconomic resilience ... more ABSTRACT India’s unprecedented growth since the mid-1990s and increased macroeconomic resilience has been against the backdrop of wide-ranging reforms, growing trade and financial integration, buoyant external demand, and ample global liquidity. Looking ahead, like most emerging markets, India is likely to face stronger headwinds, with less buoyant external financing conditions, and potentially lower growth in advanced markets. This raises questions about the sustainability of growth, sources of future growth, and reform priorities for restoring the momentum of convergence to higher income levels. Using the “distance to frontier” approach, the analysis in this article finds that the sizeable convergence gaps with respect to advanced and other emerging market economies imply considerable opportunities for catch-up. But structural transformation and convergence to higher living standards in India will be conditional on policy and institutional reforms to alleviate market and government failures, as well as on the ability of labor and capital to move toward higher-productivity sectors and activities.
Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 2014
ABSTRACT This paper examines the supply side drivers of growth in emerging market and developing ... more ABSTRACT This paper examines the supply side drivers of growth in emerging market and developing economics (EMDEs) during the past decades and discusses the role of productivity-enhancing reforms in bolstering future growth prospects. It examines aggregate and sectoral productivity trends including around reform episodes to draw broad policy lessons on what policies are needed to increase productivity. Findings suggest appropriate policies need to be tailored to the stage of economic development and to other pertinent features that give rise to the heterogeneous experiences of EMDEs.
... Please update your bookmarks. Discrepancies in Bilateral Trade Statistics: The Case of China.... more ... Please update your bookmarks. Discrepancies in Bilateral Trade Statistics: The Case of China.Vivek B Arora and Kalpana Kochhar. No 95/10, IMF Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessments from International Monetary Fund. Date: 1995 View citations in EconPapers. ...
... Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates and Inflation in Various Indexation Regimes 30 12. ... more ... Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates and Inflation in Various Indexation Regimes 30 12. ... These are Bangladesh, Chile, Ghana, India, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, and Thailand. ... The analysis is based on a case study ap-proach, which offers a number of advantages, in ...
In this paper, the behavior of China's imports during the period 1980-92 is studied. The esti... more In this paper, the behavior of China's imports during the period 1980-92 is studied. The estimation of cointegration and error correction mechanisms enables the separation of the long-run and short-run determinants of imports in China. The estimated cointegrating vector using Johansen's cointegration approach shows that, in the long run, China's imports are sensitive to changes in output, relative prices, and foreign exchange reserves. It also shows that the short-run output elasticity of imports is much greater than that in the long run, suggesting that import substitution may have been an important factor over the sample period. The forecasting ability of a conventional partial adjustment import function is then compared with that of the Johansen cointegration model; the Johansen model is shown to outperform the conventional one in forecasting accuracy.
ABSTRACT India’s unprecedented growth since the mid-1990s and increased macroeconomic resilience ... more ABSTRACT India’s unprecedented growth since the mid-1990s and increased macroeconomic resilience has been against the backdrop of wide-ranging reforms, growing trade and financial integration, buoyant external demand, and ample global liquidity. Looking ahead, like most emerging markets, India is likely to face stronger headwinds, with less buoyant external financing conditions, and potentially lower growth in advanced markets. This raises questions about the sustainability of growth, sources of future growth, and reform priorities for restoring the momentum of convergence to higher income levels. Using the “distance to frontier” approach, the analysis in this article finds that the sizeable convergence gaps with respect to advanced and other emerging market economies imply considerable opportunities for catch-up. But structural transformation and convergence to higher living standards in India will be conditional on policy and institutional reforms to alleviate market and government failures, as well as on the ability of labor and capital to move toward higher-productivity sectors and activities.
Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 2014
ABSTRACT This paper examines the supply side drivers of growth in emerging market and developing ... more ABSTRACT This paper examines the supply side drivers of growth in emerging market and developing economics (EMDEs) during the past decades and discusses the role of productivity-enhancing reforms in bolstering future growth prospects. It examines aggregate and sectoral productivity trends including around reform episodes to draw broad policy lessons on what policies are needed to increase productivity. Findings suggest appropriate policies need to be tailored to the stage of economic development and to other pertinent features that give rise to the heterogeneous experiences of EMDEs.
... Please update your bookmarks. Discrepancies in Bilateral Trade Statistics: The Case of China.... more ... Please update your bookmarks. Discrepancies in Bilateral Trade Statistics: The Case of China.Vivek B Arora and Kalpana Kochhar. No 95/10, IMF Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessments from International Monetary Fund. Date: 1995 View citations in EconPapers. ...
... Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates and Inflation in Various Indexation Regimes 30 12. ... more ... Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates and Inflation in Various Indexation Regimes 30 12. ... These are Bangladesh, Chile, Ghana, India, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, and Thailand. ... The analysis is based on a case study ap-proach, which offers a number of advantages, in ...
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