JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association
Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) w... more Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in...
Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 2015
ABSTRACT Climate variability influences the availability of water resources throughout Canada, an... more ABSTRACT Climate variability influences the availability of water resources throughout Canada, and projected climate change is anticipated to affect future water availability. This is the first paper of a three-part analysis of water availability indicators in Canada (Parts II and III, this issue). The concept of water availability has been described in different ways in the literature. In Part I, the various approaches for estimating water availability are reviewed and compared, with a focus on Canadian studies. Global examples are used when necessary. The approaches to estimate water availability are organized into three categories: (1) climate-based indicators, (2) hydrology-based indicators and (3) water demand/supply-based indicators. Climate-based indicators use variables such as precipitation, and potential or actual evapotranspiration to calculate water budgets. Widely used meteorological drought indices that calculate moisture surpluses and deficits are also examined. Hydrology-based indicators focus on variables such as observed or modeled streamflow, or runoff. Water demand/supply-based indicators tend to focus on comparing the volume of available water with the amount of water used. Some conclusions on the status of water availability estimates in Canada are provided.
... sec-tors of the region, including agriculture, forestry, fisheries, recreation and tourism, d... more ... sec-tors of the region, including agriculture, forestry, fisheries, recreation and tourism, domestic and ... planning legislation and policy, water allocation or supply methods, public education, and emergency ... a Great Lakes diversion to the Hudson River via the Black River system. ...
CANADA’S CLIMATE IS CHANGING, WITH OBSERVED CHANGES IN AIR TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, SNOW AND I... more CANADA’S CLIMATE IS CHANGING, WITH OBSERVED CHANGES IN AIR TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, SNOW AND ICE COVER AND OTHER INDICATORS. FURTHER CHANGES IN CLIMATE ARE INEVITABLE.
The United States (U.S.) and Canada will experience climate changes through direct effects of loc... more The United States (U.S.) and Canada will experience climate changes through direct effects of local changes (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events), as well as through indirect effects, transmitted among regions by interconnected economies and migrations of humans and other species. Variations in wealth and geography, however, lead to an uneven distribution of likely impacts, vulnerabilities, and capacities to adapt. This chapter reviews and synthesizes the state of knowledge on both direct and indirect impacts, vulnerability and adaptations for North America 9 (comprising Canada and the U.S).
Historical changes in wetland classes in three shoreline fens, Baie du Dore, Oliphant, and Howden... more Historical changes in wetland classes in three shoreline fens, Baie du Dore, Oliphant, and Howdenvale, along the eastern shoreline of Lake Huron were analyzed to determine responses to fluctuating water levels. Wetland classes (lake, floating emergent, emergent marsh, meadow marsh, fen, and exposed substrate) were delineated through interpretation of aerial photographs for the period 1938 to 1995. Scan vectorization was used to develop a digital data base of wetland classes. Spatial and temporal analyses, conducted in a Geographic Information System (GIS), allowed comparison of trends among and within wetland classes which were linked to water level conditions. In periods with low water levels, overall wetland area increased primarily through expansion of the exposed substrate class lakeward; although meadow marsh also contributed to the increase. While wetland area increased during low water levels, exposed substrate did not markedly add to wetland habitat value but represents pote...
Hard Choices: Climate Change in Canada, May 1, 2004
D ued because of extensive fire controls and four years of warm winters, killing lodgepole pine t... more D ued because of extensive fire controls and four years of warm winters, killing lodgepole pine trees in an 8 million hectare area (Reuters, 2001; Morton, 2002). Toronto declared a heat emergency on August 7, while Ontario's daily electricity consumption exceeded 25,000 megawatts for the first time (City of Toronto, 2001; Abbate, 2001). Hunters in Iqaluit noticed that the past few years had been getting warmer and that it takes longer for the ice to form (CBC News, Iqaluit, 2001). Golf courses in southern Ontario were open in December, but ...
Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2015
ABSTRACT Indexes that measure social vulnerability to hazards have gained acceptance as a researc... more ABSTRACT Indexes that measure social vulnerability to hazards have gained acceptance as a research tool that can inform local policymaking. Many indexes, however, are created remotely by researchers without using the input of those working in local policy. If practitioners are involved in creating an index that they find accurate and useful, it is more likely they will incorporate the findings of the index in local policy decisions. This article describes the process of ground truthing a social vulnerability index with practitioners working in five municipalities in Metro Vancouver and how the index was then revised to reflect their input. This process involved presenting an index to focus groups of municipal practitioners for their feedback and conducting a survey of participants that was then used to assign weights to the variables in the index. The study found that practitioners were generally accepting of the research approach to quantifying social vulnerability by place, although they often had specific concerns regarding the methodology and offered suggestions to make the index more reflective of the local context. The process of revising the index illustrates that local practitioner input can be used to create a measure of social vulnerability to hazards that is meaningful to those working in the community.
JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association
Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) w... more Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in...
Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 2015
ABSTRACT Climate variability influences the availability of water resources throughout Canada, an... more ABSTRACT Climate variability influences the availability of water resources throughout Canada, and projected climate change is anticipated to affect future water availability. This is the first paper of a three-part analysis of water availability indicators in Canada (Parts II and III, this issue). The concept of water availability has been described in different ways in the literature. In Part I, the various approaches for estimating water availability are reviewed and compared, with a focus on Canadian studies. Global examples are used when necessary. The approaches to estimate water availability are organized into three categories: (1) climate-based indicators, (2) hydrology-based indicators and (3) water demand/supply-based indicators. Climate-based indicators use variables such as precipitation, and potential or actual evapotranspiration to calculate water budgets. Widely used meteorological drought indices that calculate moisture surpluses and deficits are also examined. Hydrology-based indicators focus on variables such as observed or modeled streamflow, or runoff. Water demand/supply-based indicators tend to focus on comparing the volume of available water with the amount of water used. Some conclusions on the status of water availability estimates in Canada are provided.
... sec-tors of the region, including agriculture, forestry, fisheries, recreation and tourism, d... more ... sec-tors of the region, including agriculture, forestry, fisheries, recreation and tourism, domestic and ... planning legislation and policy, water allocation or supply methods, public education, and emergency ... a Great Lakes diversion to the Hudson River via the Black River system. ...
CANADA’S CLIMATE IS CHANGING, WITH OBSERVED CHANGES IN AIR TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, SNOW AND I... more CANADA’S CLIMATE IS CHANGING, WITH OBSERVED CHANGES IN AIR TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, SNOW AND ICE COVER AND OTHER INDICATORS. FURTHER CHANGES IN CLIMATE ARE INEVITABLE.
The United States (U.S.) and Canada will experience climate changes through direct effects of loc... more The United States (U.S.) and Canada will experience climate changes through direct effects of local changes (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events), as well as through indirect effects, transmitted among regions by interconnected economies and migrations of humans and other species. Variations in wealth and geography, however, lead to an uneven distribution of likely impacts, vulnerabilities, and capacities to adapt. This chapter reviews and synthesizes the state of knowledge on both direct and indirect impacts, vulnerability and adaptations for North America 9 (comprising Canada and the U.S).
Historical changes in wetland classes in three shoreline fens, Baie du Dore, Oliphant, and Howden... more Historical changes in wetland classes in three shoreline fens, Baie du Dore, Oliphant, and Howdenvale, along the eastern shoreline of Lake Huron were analyzed to determine responses to fluctuating water levels. Wetland classes (lake, floating emergent, emergent marsh, meadow marsh, fen, and exposed substrate) were delineated through interpretation of aerial photographs for the period 1938 to 1995. Scan vectorization was used to develop a digital data base of wetland classes. Spatial and temporal analyses, conducted in a Geographic Information System (GIS), allowed comparison of trends among and within wetland classes which were linked to water level conditions. In periods with low water levels, overall wetland area increased primarily through expansion of the exposed substrate class lakeward; although meadow marsh also contributed to the increase. While wetland area increased during low water levels, exposed substrate did not markedly add to wetland habitat value but represents pote...
Hard Choices: Climate Change in Canada, May 1, 2004
D ued because of extensive fire controls and four years of warm winters, killing lodgepole pine t... more D ued because of extensive fire controls and four years of warm winters, killing lodgepole pine trees in an 8 million hectare area (Reuters, 2001; Morton, 2002). Toronto declared a heat emergency on August 7, while Ontario's daily electricity consumption exceeded 25,000 megawatts for the first time (City of Toronto, 2001; Abbate, 2001). Hunters in Iqaluit noticed that the past few years had been getting warmer and that it takes longer for the ice to form (CBC News, Iqaluit, 2001). Golf courses in southern Ontario were open in December, but ...
Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2015
ABSTRACT Indexes that measure social vulnerability to hazards have gained acceptance as a researc... more ABSTRACT Indexes that measure social vulnerability to hazards have gained acceptance as a research tool that can inform local policymaking. Many indexes, however, are created remotely by researchers without using the input of those working in local policy. If practitioners are involved in creating an index that they find accurate and useful, it is more likely they will incorporate the findings of the index in local policy decisions. This article describes the process of ground truthing a social vulnerability index with practitioners working in five municipalities in Metro Vancouver and how the index was then revised to reflect their input. This process involved presenting an index to focus groups of municipal practitioners for their feedback and conducting a survey of participants that was then used to assign weights to the variables in the index. The study found that practitioners were generally accepting of the research approach to quantifying social vulnerability by place, although they often had specific concerns regarding the methodology and offered suggestions to make the index more reflective of the local context. The process of revising the index illustrates that local practitioner input can be used to create a measure of social vulnerability to hazards that is meaningful to those working in the community.
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