Risk and Vulnerability - Natural Hazards

In 2015, the Paris Climate Change Agreement was adopted, and in the ensuing years, countries, along with researchers, civil society and industry have been debating how to implement concrete action to address the climate challenge. The link between climate change and human security was first recognised in the early 2000s. This paper examines how climate change has exacerbated uncertainty and instability in vulnerable populations in different regions. It achieves this by looking at diverse national and local experiences through multiple policy lenses, namely, the proliferation of extreme weather events, coastal erosion and sea level rise, internal displacement, cross border migration, and climate change as a threat multiplier. It looks at specific cases in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Pacific Islands and the Levant to understand how human (in)security is being affected by climate change. It also addresses the future of global climate policy by assessing the current state of climate policies in light of the Paris Agreement. Global action on climate change is urgent. While many developed countries like to avoid notions of climate justice and differentiated responsibilities, the reality for the most vulnerable countries is that supranational policy is crucial if they are to tackle the climate challenge at home. This paper emphasises the importance of having meaningful and focused national climate adaptation and mitigation policies in place in order to address both the avoidable and unavoidable impacts of climate change on the economy, the culture and ultimately the security of a country.

This study finds that as climate change plays an increasingly important role in discussions of security, comprehensive strategies are needed to respond to climate-induced security threats and geopolitical (in)stability both nationally and around the world. The Paris Agreement was a good first step in driving countries to commit to curbing emissions and drafting climate adaptation action plans. We now need the global climate regime – including countries, industry, and researchers – to step up to the plate and implement effective policies if we are to limit the serious impacts of climate change. The findings in this paper aims to contribute
to the global debate around security and climate change.

This paper examines humanitarian assistance practices to understand how approaches followed by various actors address-or fail to address-social vulnerability to disasters. This question is addressed through a study of humanitarian responses in two disaster-affected villages of Baltistan in northern Pakistan. Through analysis of key informant interviews, semi-structured interviews with men and women, group discussions and secondary data sources, we identify how government, non-governmental and faith-based organisations understand and seek to address underlying socio-political processes that define vulnerability. We analyse how knowledges and practices serve to legitimise authority relations between and among humanitarian organisations and local populations. The paper finds that a simplistic understanding of vulnerability-that people with higher losses are more vulnerable and deserve more assistance in comparison to those who suffer lower losses-tends to favour well-off people, as the...

A common practice uses funny and cute internet memes to describe natural hazards, such as hurricanes, to the general public. Emergency managers create an industry lacking credibility and seriousness when they use unrealistic and comedic scenarios to describe disasters. If people believe that hurricanes are cute and funny, they will not understand their risk and therefore will not prepare adequately.

Mr, James Lutz, a former graduate student at Capitol Technology University, provided this insightful, "semi-light hearted" but serious presentation on the need for vulnerability assessments and their methodologies. This presentation was made at Capitol Technology University's IA 684 Complementary Security class.

Vulnerability assessment for disaster studies pertaining to natural hazards has evolved as a discipline in itself. The multidimensional approach for the design of a vulnerability framework is widely accepted and used, where the prevalently used dimensions are economic, social, physical, environmental. Although the dimensions of vulnerability are distinct, these are commonly aggregated together to compute the overall vulnerability of a place (i.e. composite vulnerability). It is observed this practice leads to loss of information and averaging out of scores obtained from individual dimensions of vulnerability. This study proposes a new framework for assessing multidimensional vulnerability of a region in a multi-objective framework. Individual dimension of vulnerability is computed using a new aggregator function proposed in the study. The proposed methodology has been demonstrated using the case study of a coastal district (South 24 Parganas) in West Bengal, India. It is one of the most impoverished districts of the state and has been exposed to multiple incidences of catastrophic events like tropical cyclones, storm surges and flooding. The vulnerability indices for each dimension of vulnerability were calculated using the proposed aggregator function. Pareto optimality conditions were used to obtain a Pareto frontier from where the Blocks having highest overall vulnerability were selected. This method was repeatedly used to sort the vulnerabilities of all the constituent Blocks of the district in varying levels of vulnerabilities. It was observed that Gosaba, Patharprotima, Kultali, Canning-II, Namkhana and Sagar were the most vulnerable Blocks in the district. This methodology posits that the hierarchy-based clustering system obtained from non-weighted Pareto optimality conditions is better in terms of evaluating the vulnerability of a region. It provides a system of evaluation which is free from decision maker's prejudices and guards it against loss of information-thus eliminating two weaknesses of conventional aggregation methods. It also makes it easier to arrive at specific disaster management policies.

In a context of stark opposition between supporters and opponents to the wolf, the extent to which this particular predator is dangerous for humans is still an open question.
What lies beneath the negative perception of the wolf?
What should be the historian's contribution, based on historical sources and historical methods?
Thanks to a database of 4,700 cases of wolf attacks on human having occurred in France between 1580 and 1880, it is now possible to grasp the chronological evolution and spatial evolution of wolf related risks.
Undeniably real, though mostly belonging to a remote past, and statistically rare, though anthropologically intolerable, these attacks point to two opposite groups, predatory wolves occasionally preying on humans on one hand, rabid wolves striking indiscriminately a whole population on the other.
The attacks of the first kind occurred regularly in an unsafe environment, and gave rise to tales of "Ferocious Beasts" in times of dramatic crisis (1594-1600, 1691-1694, 1746-1750, 1764-1767, 1814-1819).
The second kind was spatially and chronologically less widespread, but sowed the seeds of mass hysteria, all the more persistent since the underlying sickness it forebode remained without a cure before the last third of the 20th century.
The conclusion between these two different realities gave Canis Lupus its negative aura, significantly dimmed recently however since it has entirely lost its material basis, at least in France.

El concepto de sustentabilidad de los asentamientos humanos implica la exigencia de que las actividades de producción del medio ambiente construido sean perdurables en el largo plazo y minimicen la afectación del medio ambiente natural. Si bien en los países desarrollados existen argumentos sólidos para reducir las actividades de construcción mediante el reuso de edificaciones existentes, en lugar de desarrollar nuevas construcciones, no es posible utilizar ese expediente para asegurar un futuro sustentable, particularmente en el mundo en desarrollo. Y, de todas formas, las actividades de construcción siempre producirán algunos cambios irreversibles en el medio ambiente natural. Robert Solow, 1 Premio Nobel de Economía 1987, señaló que la sustenta-bilidad (o sostenibilidad) debe significar algo más que la sola preservación de los recursos naturales y que, para mantener la capacidad de atender las necesidades de las futuras generaciones, hay que ocuparse del capital total de la sociedad, tomando en cuenta las posibilidades de intercambio entre capital natural y otras formas de capital, como el capital construido. Un aspecto esencial del desarrollo sostenible es que el stock total de capital fijo-el natural más el producido por el hombre-no disminuya a lo largo del tiempo. La construcción de vi-viendas y otras edificaciones usa capital natural, a través de la explotación de canteras, conversión de tierras, polución atmosférica, etc., pero lo compensa incrementando el stock de capital producido que permanecerá para las futuras generaciones. Los materiales con los que estos componentes del capital fijo han sido construidos estarán disponibles en el futuro, aunque de una forma parcial. Este capital hecho por el hombre es creado para compensar la pérdida de capital natural. 2 Lo planteado por Solow parte de la convicción de que las construcciones de los hu-manos son en sí perdurables, lo que no es cierto en el mundo en desarrollo, donde más del 50% de las construcciones son improvisadas por la gente; y buena parte de las construcciones públicas son también de precaria calidad, mala praxis que se justifica con el argumento de reducción de costos. De hecho, viviendas populares, escuelas, hospitales, carreteras y puentes han sido masivamente afectados en casi todas las catástrofes del mundo en desarrollo. En realidad, la sustentabilidad de los asentamientos humanos es multifocal, pues ellos deben ser sostenibles política-social, económica, física-técnica y ambientalmente. Aquí sólo mencionaré algunas de las acciones que determinan esta múltiple sustentabilidad. 3 Política-social: Potenciar el rol estratégico del Poder Nacional y la descentralización de la gestión de los programas; concentrar el esfuerzo del Poder Público en los sec-tores más débiles; establecer una normativa y regulaciones simples y estimulantes; mayor participación democrática, libre de populismos y autoritarismos. Económica: Lucha contra la pobreza y el desempleo; refuerzo a los factores locales de producción; adoptar formas de construcción progresiva y financiamiento de cor-to plazo; potenciar las asociaciones, convenios y consorcios entre los sectores público, privado, académico, ONG, comunidades y la propia gente. Física-técnica: Mejorar la vialidad y transporte urbano e interurbano; alargar la vida de las construcciones, es decir, construir bien desde el inicio; garantizar la calidad del espacio urbano y las construcciones; promover el reciclaje, reuso, transformación, y la deconstrucción, en lugar de la demolición; gestión integral de desechos; desarro-llar innovaciones para la producción masiva en pequeña escala; I&D sobre impactos V u l n e r a b i l i d a d y s u s T e n T a b i l i d a d de los asenTamienTos humanos alfredo cilento sarli resumen Los desastres sísmicos son sólo una de las manifestaciones del crecimiento de la vulnerabilidad y de la insustentabilidad de las ciudades del mundo en desarrollo. Las amenaza sísmica es un riesgo natural, una contingencia cuyos efectos, en buena medida, son con-secuencia de fallas e imprevisiones de los seres humanos. Desde este punto de vista no es fácil estable-cer la diferencia entre desastres naturales y provocados por el hombre, dado que, la mayor de las vulnerabilidades de las ciudades, de la mitad más pobre del mundo, es justamente la pobreza. La mayor parte de las acciones necesarias para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los asentamientos humanos, frente a los riesgos sísmicos, tsunamis, derrumbes y deslizamientos, incen-dios y explosiones, inundaciones, huracanes y otras calamidades na-turales o producidas por el hombre, tienen que ver con la necesidad de garantizar la sustentabilidad políti-ca, social, económica, tecnológica y ambiental de los asentamientos humanos. Particularmente de los asentamientos urbanos, donde ahora se concentra, en los inicios del tercer milenio, por primera vez en la historia de la humanidad, más del 50% de la población mundial. En este trabajo se plantean y analizan los factores de sustentabilidad que podrían incidir directamente en la reducción de la vulnerabilidad de los centros urbanos.

Primer manual de mitigación de riesgos y desastres para Puerto Rico, desarrollado gracias al Centro de Estudios Puertorriqueños de Hunter College (CUNY) y el Instituto de Desarrollo Empresarial y Acción Comunitaria (IdeaComún).  Define mitigación de riesgos; vincula los cursos de acción (COAs) del Informe de Recuperación del Gobernador con el área de mitigación; describe los tres programas que financian la mitigación aplicables a la recuperación de Puerto Rico: Mitigación bajo el Programa Community Development Block Grant-Disaster Relief (CDBG-DR) de HUD; Mitigación 406 bajo el Programa de Public Assistance (PA) de FEMA; y el Hazard Mitigation Grants Program (HMGP/404) de FEMA; explica la importancia de los planes de mitigación municipales; y provee una guía y recursos de apoyo para el acceso inicial a los fondos HMGP mediante cartas de intención, entre otros.

The hazards caused by ravine (quebradas) geomorphological dynamics as consequence of major hydrological events in mountainous areas of Northwest Argentina are little studied. The scarce records for rainfall and river flow are the main limitations. This work provides information about the dynamic functioning of the Blanquito River, located in the Tafí valley (Tucumán province). Starting from a documented flood that occurred in 1987, a geomorphological map was performed by combining images from 1987 and 2016. Field survey, cross-sections of the river course, profile descriptions, radiocarbon datings, and drone surveys were also made to complement map information. The 1987 flooded area was determined estimating the area covered by debris flow deposits. The relatively few mitigation works are also evaluated. Some infrastructures were damaged in the 1987 flood – such the bridge over 307 Provincial Road, however it is still in use. Urban growth has been substantial and unplanned over the last 30 years and many obstacles were detected in the river course across the town center. Despite the lack of quantitative data with good temporal resolution, a flood hazard map was made that gathers information about several critical points. These locations are susceptible to overflows with different probabilities of occurrence. Finally, mitigation measures are proposed.

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Ante la magnitud del sismi del 21 de enero de 2003, Colima y su gente no puede dejar de testimoniar, desde diversos ángulos, cómo se vivió una experiencia de tal magnitud. Es oportuno y necesario recopilar la mirada y el pensamiento de diversos sectores de la sociedad, quienes puenden contar para sus contemporáneos, o para la posteridad, cómo asume un pueblo una situación extraordinaria.

Rapid industrial, commercial and economic growth in Warri as a result of oil exploration activities has led to a continual increasing urbanization. This promotes flooding with excess rainfall due to the total impervious cover of the area and the unsanitary habit of people dumping refuse into stream channels, drains and also building along the flood pathways. Land cover change for the period 1987, 2002 and 2007of Warri was investigated using satellite remote sensing data. The investigation was necessitated to determine the changes over time and how this changes influence urban flooding in Warri Metropolis Delta State, Nigeria. Landsat images of the study area for the years 1987, 2002, 2007 show that in 1987 total built-up area was 83.15km2 (16.7%) and by 2007 it was 236.76km (43.7%) this reflect an annual frequency of change of 1.09%. Marginal areas and vegetation were converted to residential areas which increased the total impervious cover of the study area and generally increased the peak runoff. The conversion of marginal areas also reduced the channel capacity thus leading to flooding. Questionnaires were also administered using the stratified and systematic sampling methods to get information on how the respondents perceive the cause of flood in the area, the data generated was subjected to ANOVA statistical tool using SPSS. The correlation matrix between Annual rainfall and frequency of flooding show that at P<0.01, r = 0.460 indicating a very significant relationship. The single Factor ANOVA, F >F crit at P < 0.05 showed that an uncoordinated or unregulated urbanization activities is similar in all the flood zones (Warri 1- Warri 4).

The current and projected impacts of climate change make understanding the environmental and social vulnerability of coastal communities and the planning of adaptations important international goals and national policy initiatives. Yet, coastal communities are concurrently experiencing numerous other social, political, economic, demographic and environmental changes or stressors that also need to be considered and planned for simultaneously to maintain social and environmental sustainability. There are a number of methods and processes that have been used to study vulnerability and identify adaptive response strategies. This paper describes the stages, methods and results of a modified community-based scenario planning process that was used for vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning within the context of multiple interacting stressors in two coastal fishing communities in Thailand. The four stages of community-based scenario planning included: (1) identifying the problem and purpose of scenario planning; (2) exploring the system and types of change; (3) generating possible future scenarios; and (4) proposing and prioritizing adaptations. Results revealed local perspectives on social and environmental change, participant visions for their local community and the environment, and potential actions that will help communities to adapt to the changes that are occurring. Community-based scenario planning proved to have significant potential as an anticipatory action research process for incorporating multiple stressors into vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning. This paper reflects on the process and outcomes to provide insights and suggest changes for future applications of community-based scenario planning that will lead to more effective learning, innovation and action in communities and related social–ecological systems.

Özet;
Karapınar, Türkiye'nin tarımsal ve ekonomik açıdan önemli bir üretim bölgesi olan Konya Kapalı Havzasının merkezinde yer almaktadır. Bölgede, iklim özellikleri ile uyuşmayan yüksek miktarda su tüketimine sahip yoğun tarım faaliyetlerinin gerçekleştirilmesi, iklim değişikliği etkileri, bölgedeki yeraltı su kaynaklarının giderek azalıyor olması, yeraltından çekilen suyun yağışlar ile geri beslenememesi doğal yaşamı ve tarımın geleceğini tehdit altına almaktadır. Bu parametrelere Karapınar'ın jeolojik yapısı da eklendiği zaman bölgede zemin çökmeleri ve obruk oluşumları gibi çevresel sorunlar ortaya çıkmaktadır. Doktora tez çalışması kapsamında, Karapınar ve çevresindeki yaşanan bu sorunların kontrol altına alınabilmesi ve bölgede yapılacak olan planlama çalışmalarına kaynak oluşturabilecek verilerin ve haritaların oluşturulması hedeflenmiştir. Çalışmalar envanter verilerinin temini, arazi örtüsü/kullanımı değişimleri, InSAR uygulaması ve Obruk Duyarlılık Haritası (ODH) üretimi olmak üzere dört aşamada gerçekleştirilmiştir. İlk olarak, bölgede mevcut tüm obruklara (301) ait envanter verisi toplanmış ve bu verinin Fusion Tables hizmetleri ile web tabanlı sistem üzerinden paylaşılmasının alt yapısı oluşturulmuştur. Daha sonra 29 yıllık (1987-2016) periyotta meydana gelen arazi örtüsü/kullanımı değişimleri belirlenmiş ve bu değişikliğin yeraltı suyu ve yağışlar ile olan ilişkileri ortaya konmuştur. InSAR uygulaması başlığı altında, Karapınar ve çevresine ait belirli periyotlar ile elde edilen Cosmo-SkyMed (2016), Sentinel-1 (2014-2017) uydu verilerinden oluşan toplam 37 adet SAR görüntüsü ile deformasyon analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu kapsamda yıllık -55 mm'ye kadar zemin çökmeleri tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca X band Cosmo-SkyMed verileri ile çalışma sahası içerinde bulunan alüvyonel bölgelerde tarım faaliyetlerine bağlı olarak gözlemlenen çökmeler net bir şekilde belirlenmiştir. Son olarak, muhtemel obruk alanlarının belirlenebilmesi için jeoloji, yükseklik, eğim, bakı, arazi kullanımı/örtüsü, yeraltı suyu seviye(YSS) değişimi, kuyu yoğunluğu, Faya Olan Uzaklık (FOU), Drenaja Olan Uzaklık (DOU), Karstik yapı oluşturabilecek birim kalınlığı, yağış, PH gibi temel parametrelere ek olarak bölgenin deformasyon haritasının bir faktör olarak dahil edildiği çalışma sonucunda Obruk Duyarlılık Haritası (ODH) üretilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuç haritasının bölgede oluşan güncel obruklar ile yüksek uyuşum gösterdiği belirlenmiştir.

Abstract;
Karapinar is Turkey's agricultural and economically important production region and located in the middle of Konya Closed Basin. In the region, the natural life and the future of agriculture are threatened by the fact that underground water resources are gradually diminishing, the realization of intensive agricultural activities that are incompatible with climate characteristics and have high water consumption, climate change effects. In addition to all these parameters, when considering the geological structure of Karapinar, it reveals environmental problems such as land subsidence and sinkhole formation in the region. In this doctoral thesis, controlling these problems in Karapinar and its surrounding, obtaining data which can be sources for planning studies of the region and creating maps from that data has been worked. For this purpose, four studies were carried out, such as supplying the inventory data, Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changing, application of InSAR and production of sinkhole susceptibility map. Firstly, inventory data of 301 sinkholes, which were not revealed by any study before, have been collected. Thus, this study has created a substructure to share these inventory data with using Fusion Tables services. Afterward, LULC changes of 29 years (1987-2016) and its relation to groundwater, and precipitation are revealed. Under the title of InSAR application, totally 37 SAR images belonging to Cosmo-SkyMed (2016) and Sentinel-1(2014-2017) satellites acquired for Karapınar and its surroundings with certain periods were detected and -55 mm/year land subsidence was noticed. Furthermore, land subsidence due to agricultural activities was clearly observed in the alluvial regions located in the study area with X band Cosmo-SkyMed data. Finally, a sinkhole susceptibility map was produced to determine the potential sinkhole areas including basic parameters such as geology, elevation, slope, aspect, LULC, groundwater level change, well density, distance to faults, distance to drainage, water-soluble rock thickness, precipitation, PH and also, deformation map of the Region was added as a factor. It has been determined that the obtained result map shows high agreement with the current sinkholes in the region.

Hurricane Katrina submerged thousands of single-story, slab-on-grade homes in low-lying New Orleans, disproportionately displacing African Americans they sheltered and sustained. Critical disaster studies cast charitable individuals and organizations as sponsors of Black survival, yet nongovernmental aid programs remain marginal to scholarship on environmental justice and Black geographies. This paper sheds light on the funding programs, public-private partnerships, and design-build projects by which philanthropies and charities aid Black, Indigenous and other People of Color (BIPOC) in retreat from flood hazards. This nested case study of HUD’s Neighborhood Stabilization program and the Salvation Army’s EnviRenew program shows Black developers, planners, and architects of retreat from New Orleans’s Pontchartrain Park Historic District gained public, private, and philanthropic sponsors at steep costs: the loss of land, life, and leadership in sustainable development. Drawing on administrative data, legal documents, and stakeholder interviews, the mixed-methods analysis finds new housing built above projected base flood elevations inside flood hazard zones not by choice or by chance, but in compliance with aid programs requiring Black participation in land buyout programs (Road Home) and Black facilitation of green home building and buying (Build Back Better). The Pontchartrain Park case of “management failure,” which included rescinded grants and land takings, not only illuminates the macroeconomics and microaggressions that restrict where and how Black resettlement takes place. Ultimately, this article reveals climate mitigation patrons relocate BIPOC households and heritage from endangered places in theory, yet, in practice, their relief formulas may house marginalized minorities in precarious places above measured risks.

The exceptional size, power, and duration of Hurricane Mitch dramatically exposed Honduras’ high level of social and environmental vulnerability and also made post-disaster reconstruction efforts particularly challenging. When Hurricane Mitch devastated the country, most of the population were already living in chronic poverty and facing severe resource constraints. This chapter addresses the impact of Hurricane Mitch in Honduras, describes the event itself, and examines the devastation left in its wake in light of the highly vulnerable pre-disaster conditions. The interaction between physical and demographic factors and between historical and contemporary political-economic factors are analyzed next. The chapter concludes by examining the responses of the Honduran government and the international community, which were instrumental in assisting the survivors and helping the country start the recover process.

Escasamente abordado en los estudios urbano-territoriales y en los instrumentos de planificación territorial, el estudio de la vulnerabilidad de las instalaciones esenciales o equipamientos críticos es cada vez más relevante a la hora de gestionar los riesgos en las áreas urbanas. Se describe sintéticamente metodologías de análisis multi-criterio y multi-amenazas, desarrolladas para estudios de riesgos en Chaitén, Valparaíso y Viña del Mar, así como para un estudio de edificios patrimoniales en la comuna de Santiago. Se identifica sus alcances, limitaciones y oportunidades de mejora, considerándose que constituyen un insumo relevante para apoyar a las autoridades y comunidades en la gestión del riesgo de desastres a nivel local y promover el aumento de la resiliencia de las áreas urbanas, así como la protección del patrimonio construido.

Despite the historical importance of fire as a savanna land management tool, much controversy still surrounds discussions on anthropogenic fire utilization and the sustainability of indigenous land management practices in African savannas. This controversy is arguably a result of a discord between official fire policies and actual indigenous fire practices – a discord based on a gap in existing knowledge of, and a lack of informed literature on, the importance of fire for socio-economic and environmental survival in savanna environments. Addressing a continuing lack of research on the political ecology of fire, this study investigates the historical and present day socio-economic, environmental and political frameworks that affect anthropogenic burning regimes and land management in the Kafinda Game Management Area and Kasanka National Park in Zambia. A series of participatory research activities revealed the continuing importance of fire to rural livelihoods, but that a mismatch in desired burning regimes exists between local stakeholders. The paper argues that local power relations are preventing the local communities from adopting burning regimes that would be more environmentally sustainable and more in line with present day farming systems.

Pamphlet outlining the speculative building codes applying to Panarchistic Architecture's 'Pyro-resistor' architectural and urban design genus pyroarchetype variant for use when exploring how the architectural and urban resilience paradigm may work in policy and professional practice. Part of the wider suite of Panarchic Codex® materials available via www.panarchiccodex.com.

La gestión de los riesgos naturales se ha convertido en uno de los elementos fundamentales para garantizar un óptimo desarrollo socioeconómico de los territorios. Tal es así, que desde las instancias gubernamentales y administrativas europeas se ha venido apostando por la introducción de procesos de prevención, mitigación y reducción de los impactos adversos de los fenómenos de la naturaleza. Las nuevas políticas de Desarrollo Rural, enmarcadas dentro del periodo de programación 2014-2020 se han hecho eco de esta problemática e introducen importantes medidas destinadas a la gestión de los riesgos. Este trabajo pretende abordar cuáles son, cómo se organizan y a qué riesgos potenciales se refieren cada una de las normativas que van a marcar las directrices del Desarrollo Rural en este periodo. Se incluirán además aquellas menciones y medidas de inversión en materia de gestión de riesgos en el PDR de Extremadura así como el análisis de los principales riesgos a los que se exponen los territorios rurales de la región, caso de los incendios forestales y las inundaciones.

Los modelos de probabilísticos de fenómenos naturales, se basan en combinaciones lineales de distintas situaciones y características de la variación del fenómeno a estudiar, que se cuantifican de forma booleana, es decir utilizando rangos de mayor que o menor que. Estos modelos de predicción son los que se utilizan de forma generalizada, son estándar y utilizados por la mayoría de investigadores.
El presente proyecto presenta un método alternativo para crear un modelo probabilístico de deslizamientos mediante la lógica difusa en las parroquias de Papallacta y Cuyuja, Cantón Quijos, de la provincia de Napo. Se presenta una breve revisión de los métodos probabilísticos existentes, que han sido utilizados para el análisis de varios fenómenos, en ciertos sectores del área de estudio.
Esto permite comparar que modelo se adapta de mejor forma a la realidad del terreno, y cual estadísticamente posee menor error.

The probabilistic models of natural phenomena are based on linear combinations of different situations and characteristics of the variation of the phenomenon to be studied, which are quantified with Boolean method, using ranges greater than or less than. These prediction models are standard, used across the board, and most of the researchers.
This project presents an alternative method for creating a probabilistic model of landslides using fuzzy logic in parroquias de Papallacta and Cuyuja, which belong to canton Quijos - provincia de Napo. It provides a brief review of existing probabilistic methods, which have been used for the analysis of many phenomena, in certain sectors of the study area. And allows to compare what model fits better to the terrain reality, and which has the statistically lower error.

"A massive tornado that tore a 6-mile path across southwestern Missouri killed 162 people as it raged through the heart of Joplin on the evening of 22 May 2011. This EF5 tornado, which at its zenith was three-quarters of a mile wide, levelled much of the city’s south side, and completely flattened some neighbourhoods, with leaves stripped from trees, the landscape took on an apocalyptic aura.

The Joplin event stands as the deadliest single tornado to hit the United States since modern record-keeping began in 1950, surpassing the 8 June 1953 tornado that claimed 116 lives in Flint, MI (Mustain 2011). In contrast to the horrific new record, 45 tornado fatalities were recorded in the United States during all of 2010, and just 21 stemmed from the 2009 calendar year. Average annual tornado deaths in the country were 55 for the period 2000-2010, but if the 554 deaths caused by 2011 tornadoes are added, the figure increases to 63.5. The record number of deaths caused by the single tornado in Joplin, MO, was far higher than the average number of yearly tornado deaths caused in the United States during the both time periods (i.e., 2000-2010 and 2000-2011). This study explores the reasons for the unexpectedly high number of fatalities caused by the 2011 Joplin, MO, tornado. This was accomplished by examining the nature and extent of warnings residents of Joplin, MO, received prior to the tornado touchdown and how they responded to these warnings."

Over the past 10 years inspections (site visits, boat based surveys or diver surveys) have been completed at nearly 20,000 pipeline watercourse crossings for 20 different pipeline owners. During the last 10 years there have been 721 unique locations where an exposed pipeline was found and at 213 of these locations a freespan was encountered. Only one of the freespans resulted in the failure (loss of product) of the pipeline. This record illustrates what is now become widely accepted, that pipeline exposure does not necessarily lead to pipeline failure. The record adds to this, pipeline freespan does not necessarily lead to failure. This highlights that the relevant question for "water loading caused pipeline failure" is: Does the combination of freespan length and water velocity exceed a combination that would lead to vortex induced vibration or the exceedance of the static load limit of the pipe?

The purpose of this paper is to develop a Risk Management Plan, or RMP for a political campaign. In Laureate Education (2015) an RMP covers all phases of a project from the initiation to the sign-off by the stakeholders and sponsors of the
campaign to the planning, executing, and controlling phases throughout, and the winding-up phase at the end (para 1).

La historia está plagada de ejemplos que dan cuenta de que los desastres no son naturales,  que amenaza natural y desastre no son sinónimos ni deberían serlo, que las amenazas naturales también se construyen socialmente pasando a convertirse en amenazas socio-naturales.  Casos que muestran fehacientemente que los desastres como procesos han sido producto de la acumulación de riesgos y de vulnerabilidades relacionados con, pero también derivados, del tipo de sociedad y de economía que se ha ido desarrollando con el paso del tiempo y no de la presencia cada vez mayor en frecuencia y magnitud de amenazas de origen natural.
En este capítulo reviso esta estrecha relación entre desastres y vulnerabilidad, particularmente en condiciones de riesgo asociado con la presencia de amenazas naturales.

Following seven previous successful editions of this leading conference series on risk and resilience, held in different regions of the globe, this 8th edition of the International Conference on Building Resilience took place for the first time in Portugal, being organized by the University of Lisbon, in collaboration with the Universities of Coimbra and Huddersfield, and held in the premises of the Lisbon University Institute (ISCTE-IUL), between 14 and 16 November 2018.
We feel honoured for having this opportunity of organizing a conference that becomes a reference on the annual calendar of those interested in disaster-related sciences. By bridging the gap between designers, disaster managers, and humanitarian and development practitioners, the ICBR has been promoting a vast interdisciplinary network aimed at strengthening and disseminating a culture of risk and resilience.
We have embraced in 2018 the theme “Risk and Resilience in Practice: Vulnerabilities, Displaced People, Local Communities and Heritages” for the 8th ICBR with the goal of addressing some of the most challenging and pressing issues that concern academia, public administrations, the private sector, civil society and, last but not least, local populations, whom our individual and shared efforts are meant to impact in a positive way. In light of the more than 600 quality submissions (papers and posters) that were received from more than 50 countries, this choice seems to have been particularly inspiring. Indeed, the Conference brought together excellent pieces of research and amazing projects focusing on disaster risk reduction, disaster preparedness, post-disaster rebuilding and recovery, humanitarian architecture, gender issues and resilience in general. Complementing the significant set of conference publication outputs (five books and four special issues) this book reunites the half of the participants' papers presented to the conference after reviewed by the scientific committee.