Risk and Vulnerability - Natural Hazards

Presentation for The Climate and History Initiative annual Colloquium at Princeton University on the topic "Vulnerability and Resilience-From Catastrophe to Complexity in the Premodern Mediterranean and the Pre-Columbian Americas", 5-6 May 2017: https://climatechangeandhistory.princeton.edu/events/climate-and-history-initiative-annual-colloquium-vulnerability-and-resilience-catastrophe

Nell’ambito delle iniziative realizzate dal Cnr per il progetto e concorso 'Articolo 9 della Costituzione' promosso dal Miur, il Mibact e la Fondazione Benetton Studi Ricerche, gli istituti Issm e Iamc organizzano una conferenza scientifica per gli studenti del liceo statale 'Eleonora Pimentel Fonseca' di Napoli su: 'I terremoti a Napoli. Un percorso per la conoscenza del proprio territorio' curato da Sabina Porfido ricercatrice dell'Iamc-Cnr. Introdurranno Paola Avallone e Raffaella Salvemini dell'Issm-Cnr

Gravity-induced pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) at Stromboli volcano were investigated by means numerical and empirical modelling. With the aim of testing the suitability of landslide numerical model DAN-3D and empirical models are used related to gravity-induced PDCs, in particular this work presents the results of the back analysis of three events occurred on 1906, 1930 and 1944 at Stromboli volcano. These two methods were able to reproduce the extension and the order of magnitude of the thickness of the PDCs reported in the literature. The best results of DAN-3D models were obtained using a Voellmy model with frictional coefficient of f = 0.19 and a turbulence parameter ξ = 1000 m/s. The mobility terms, find with the numerical model, are compared with empirical data of literature of the similar events.

The course explains how to conduct a risk assessment using spatial information on hazards, elements at risk and vulnerability with the aid of GIS and remote sensing, and how this information can be used in risk management, with a focus on urban areas.
The course explains how to conduct a risk assessment using spatial information on hazards, elements at risk and vulnerability with the aid of GIS and remote sensing, and how this information can be used in risk management, with a focus on urban areas.
This is the version in Vietnamese.
Data can be found on : ftp://ftp.itc.nl/pub/westen/Multi_hazard_risk_course/

Robustness and uncertainties of seismic damage estimates at urban scale: a methodological comparison on the example of the city of Oran (Algeria) Abstract The city of Oran is exposed to a significant seismic hazard, as almost all the northern Algeria territory, where numerous casualties and severe damage occurred in the last decades due to several moderate to large earthquakes. A mitigation policy should include the establishment of priorities to reduce the vulnerability of existing buildings based on the knowledge of the actual urban fabrics. The complexity of vulnerability assessment requires a gradual approach from the urban scale to the building scale. The study reported in this paper corresponds to the first step of such an approach, i.e., a preliminary study of the seismic vulnerability and expected damage within an urban district of the city of Oran, based on a non-dedicated data base from a building survey previously performed for other purposes. The main goals of this study are twofold: (1) an assessment of the degree of uncertainty and robustness of such results through a comparison of the results derived from different urban vulnerability methods (GNDT 2; RISK-UE LM1; and VULNERALP 2.0) and (2) an assessment of the actual level of seismic risk in the city of Oran. Cross-method comparisons and correlations highlight a satisfactory agreement between mean damage estimates at the urban scale, despite significant scattering at the single building scale, and uncertainty levels which vary significantly from one method to the other. For a given scenario, the three methods provide damage estimates lying within half an EMS damage degree of one another, with some systematic positive bias for VULNERALP and negative bias for RISK-UE LM1, especially for masonry buildings. The expected mean damage is very important for intensities 9 and 10, with an average damage grade around 3–4 for intensity 9 and 4–5 for intensity 10. The spatial distribution of damage systematically exhibits larger values in the northern, older, commercial area, than in the southern, more recent and more residential area, in relation to the building typology and the existence of several aggravating factors. Some areas of higher vulnerability / damage can be distinguished, which should receive particular attention for retrofitting priorities or urban planning decisions, also taking into account their cultural heritage value.

The interpretation of very high resolution seismic profiles and gravity core data acquired on the continental shelf of the Amalfi coast (Northern Salerno Bay) documents the stratigraphic architecture of a series of small fan-deltas that develop at the mouth of major bedrock streams. The fan-delta system mostly postdates the Plinian eruption of the Vesuvius of AD 79 and displays various phases of development that were ostensibly associated with periods of high sediment supply from the adjacent river basins. During these periods landscape-mantling loose pyroclastic deposits (mostly air-fall tephra erupted by the Vesuvius) were quickly eroded and delivered to the continental shelf by sheet wash and flash floods events. Depositional processes on the foresets were dominated by sediment gravity flows originating from hyperpycnal river flow and pyroclastic fall deposits. This created, in turn, favourable conditions for seafloor instability, soft sediment failure, slumping and sliding that ...

The interpretation of very high resolution seismic profiles and gravity core data acquired on the continental shelf of the Amalfi coast (Northern Salerno Bay) documents the stratigraphic architecture of a series of small fan-deltas that develop at the mouth of major bedrock streams. The fan-delta system mostly postdates the Plinian eruption of the Vesuvius of AD 79 and displays various phases of development that were ostensibly associated with periods of high sediment supply from the adjacent river basins. During these periods landscape-mantling loose pyroclastic deposits (mostly air-fall tephra erupted by the Vesuvius) were quickly eroded and delivered to the continental shelf by sheet wash and flash floods events. Depositional processes on the foresets were dominated by sediment gravity flows originating from hyperpycnal river flow and pyroclastic fall deposits. This created, in turn, favourable conditions for seafloor instability, soft sediment failure, slumping and sliding that ...

For the first time we made our experimental STF (Short Term Forecast) for USA west coast, and Mexico (Primary focus on California). We used a similar condition that, in June 2015, lead us to succesfully forecast the Chile earthquake of 17 September 2015

The history of the medieval period in Britain is punctuated by catastrophic events, including wars, political unrest, disease, famine and ‘natural’ disasters. While archaeological evidence for warfare, epidemics and diet have seen extensive research within the sub-disciplines of battlefield/conflict archaeology and paleopathology, ‘natural’ disasters have not sparked comparable investigations. This research aims, to a limited extent, to redress this. As with other calamities, disasters caused by natural hazards have, over the longue-durée, influenced humanity’s regional social, economic and cultural development. This research therefore focuses on the multitude of impacts resulting from those hazards dependent on weather systems throughout the later British Middle Ages, defined here as AD c. 1000-c. 1550, analysing the different ways in which medieval populations responded to meteorological hazards through both physical and spiritual means using both archaeological and historical sources. The extent to which British medieval society adapted to the risk of natural hazards is also assessed.

Slides of Report: Production System Analysis & Italian Transport Companies; A briefly endeavor to modeling, 3th edition; Problem Tree; Production Functions (PF's); Organization Chart; Information Pattern; Standard Time; Make-span (MS); Modeling; DM's; Work Sequence; Report; Table of Agents; Table of Resources; Production System Analysis & Italian Transport Companies

Academic course of Prof. Agostino Villa; Politecnico di Torino, Student: Sajjad Khaksari; June 11, 2015;

Abstract. - Quantitative Evaluation Of Multi-Vulnerability To Hydro-Geomorfological Hazards In The
High Sector Of Niraj Catchment. A study of the natural hazards indicates that floods, landslides, fluvial
erosion and soil erosion have the highest spatial-temporal occurrence and lead to the highest material losses
in the study area of the Niraj Basin. The present study focuses on the upper section of the Niraj basin, one
that still evolving from a hydrological and geomorphological point of view, without any major anthropic
interference. Due to its favourability for the establishing of settlements (a consequence of favourable slopes,
fertile lands and water resources), the most of the human settlements are situated in the floodplain area,
hence in the most flood-prone area during spring and autumn. The rest of the settlements lie on the inferior
sectors of the hillslopes, as well as on the valleys of the main tributary rivers of the Niraj, hence being
exposed to the reactivated landslides- a consequence of the abundant rainfall events usually leading to
floods. A cumulated approach of a multi-vulnerability type has been chosen, one that allows the classifying
of the built-up area and roads into spatial classes exposed to the identified natural hazards. Spatial analysis
led to the obtaining of quantitative information concerning the number of constructions and the length of
roads that can be exposed once the hydro-geomorphological processes have reactivated.

Increased frequency and intensity of heat waves is one of the consequences of climate change which affect the territory of France, including the territory of agglomeration community Plaine Commune. Composed of nine cities to the North of Paris, the territory is characterized by socio-economic insecurity of its population; dense urban area is impacted by a significant heat exposure resulting from insufficient thermal quality of housing and because of urban heat island effect.
The territory is marked by the speed of economic development catching up after crisis and the growth of its population. As Plaine Commune is a part of the vanguard in the field of sustainable development in France, it represents an experimentation ground for policies of local management of global climate risks. Its experience could be analyzed and (not) be used on other territories, cities, counties or municipalities.
The purpose of this paper, based on a conceptual and technical research conducted on the territory over several months, using participatory observations and non-structured interviews with experts, is to identify and scrutinize the factors of vulnerability of Plaine Commune, analyze past impacts and future risks in order to build the base for adaptation strategies.
From this research, it appears that Plaine Commune is facing the risk of morbidity and loss of assets not only because of its today’s vulnerable condition, its vulnerability is likely to persist in future due to the growth and densification of population facing extreme weather events. The degree of vulnerability to heat waves is and will be stronger for people in precarious economic situation, the elderly, the disabled and marginalized population.
Although uncertain about the future climate change, as it depends both on local strategies and development plans and also on the complex interactions of choices and decisions made both on the local and on the higher levels of regulation, Plaine Commune not only takes the first step to adaptation by reducing the uncertainty about its current vulnerability to climate change, it dares to invest in and implement several adaptation measures that are expected on the long run both to improve the quality of life on the territory as well as to reduce social vulnerability.
Key words: vulnerability, heat waves, climate change, risks, uncertainty, adaptation

Hazards don’t become disasters until they meet people who are vulnerable. Vulnerability should be the center of disaster response, recovery, and risk reduction.

Disaster = Hazard + Vulnerability (Cannon, 2000). Although this short formula appears simple, it is complex. It has implications for what a disaster is, who disasters effects, and how to respond to disasters. People are vulnerable because of power, culture, identity, and society. Thus, even ‘natural disasters’ are –at least in part- ‘man-made’.

Often, there are preexisting unjust structures within communities. If vulnerability is not considered in relief, recovery, and prevention of disasters, it reinforces people’s Social Exclusion. The negative effect of the disaster is multiplied by the event and unequal recovery.

The Solomon Islands April Flash Flood effected 52,000 people. Twenty-two people died in this disaster. Often disaster response works from a national or community level. To understand the impact of disasters we need the ability to hear stories of people who are vulnerable.

Five months after the disaster I worked with World Vision Solomon Islands to evaluate the disaster and their response. We designed the research to understand who was vulnerable and to hear their stories. World Vision Solomon Islands gave permission to share the following data.

To See the rest of the article visit: http://flourishinganddisadvantage.com/2015/02/16/who-is-vulnerable-vulnerability-and-disasters-in-the-pacific/

As questões ambientais no Haiti têm tornado o país mais dependente e vulnerável aos eventos catastróficos, como no terremoto de 2010. Neste artigo, as raízes sociais e políticas que permitiram tal vulnerabilidade são examinadas e, com base no Índice de Vulnerabilidade, é apresentado um quadro de como meio ambiente, ecologia humana, democracia e educação se cruzam nesse contexto. O estudo se concentra em quatro desenvolvimentos sociais ligados às catastróficas consequências humanas do terremoto. A análise dessas ações levando em conta esse índice permite ilustrar como processos específicos e seus resultados estiveram vinculados a noções de democracia de diferentes formas. Estabelecido o elo conceitual entre meio ambiente e democracia, são apresentados os resultados negativos da vulnerabilidade numa democracia “fina”, e como a educação hegemônica contribui para limitar e enfraquecer a retórica de uma democracia “espessa”. Conclui pela defesa de uma educação voltada para a democracia “espessa”, que possa romper e abordar as condições de colonização, injustiça social e vulnerabilidade ambiental, alertando que essa democracia requer uma educação crítica e mais comprometida.

The main aim of this paper is to perform a review of the methodological procedures for the modeling of socio-environmental vulnerability using geotechnologies and present case studies in selected areas in Brazil and Portugal. The study of vulnerability is based on GIS and Statistics, using factor analysis and principal component analysis for aggregation of statistical socioeconomic and environmental variables derived from census. The main factors with high vulnerability in counties of State of Sao Paulo – Brazil were related to the population concentration in urban areas such as high birth, crime and poverty and also rural exodus and some precarious condition of accommodation in the cities. In Central Region of Portugal vulnerability factors associated with economic contraction appeared, con- firming that the country is facing the consequences of low birth rate and aging population. The model showed results consistent with the reality of most counties studied and will be improved in the way of a standardization of the analysis between the two countries, hoping to contribute with plan- ners and public administrators in the studied regions and in other similar situations regarding the vulnerability and risks.
Keywords: Geothecnologies, Risks Cartography, Socio-Environmental Vulnerability

The extent of exposure to which a societal group is possible to fall into a critical condition or crisis is defined as the vulnerabilities embedded in the group. Vulnerability eradication is then characterized as having particularities in each circumstance. The eradication effort addressed to a vulnerable community with situational limitations is becoming interesting to study. Technology, as an interdisciplinary solution, is potential to be a powerful solution for the eradication. Although vulnerability eradication has been widely discussed, the discussion is rather fragmented that compiled in historical way. This study aims to analyze the quest of community survivability through technological appropriateness and design. Information are gathered from literatures to be properly ordered based on the position of each phenomenon in history. Facts are compared and contrasted to deliver clear understandings on the chronologies. The historical explanations indicate that the pursuit of technological appropriateness was tightly related to the rising of technological independence in Southern hemisphere. Also, design methodologies were developed to address challenges in each own timeframe, yet each one has its own benefits and disadvantages; hence engineers need to carefully choose appropriate methodology to produce an “appropriate” technology. Then, this study gives a notion that the quest is still waiting to have further development of design methodologies for AT.

Vulnerability is an emerging term for both scientific communities and practitioners. Vulnerabilities attributed to a particular community are then aggregated to state it as a vulnerable community. Vulnerability-related study is recognized as an interdisciplinary one due to the complex characteristics of vulnerabilities in each contextual situation. In common understandings, technology is recognized as an interdisciplinary solution, making it possible for supporting any activity in eradicating vulnerability. This study aims to observe such possibilities. Literature survey is taken to investigate the interconnection between vulnerability eradication and technology. Brief comparison between several developing countries and particular focus on Indonesia become a medium of further investigation to reveal issues surrounding technology-related efforts for vulnerability eradication in vulnerable communities. The study reveals that developing countries, particularly Indonesia, tend to adopt approaches from Northern hemisphere, including transferring technologies from developed countries without proper propagation. It means that local knowledge and power are largely ignored in the pursuit of local problem solving for vulnerability eradication. These facts become a signpost to emphasize that approach in implementing technological solution for such purpose is the critical mechanism to ensure the success in every contextual situation. Then, looking at the results of this brief study, its emphasis indicates further requirements to shift the paradigm of typical community development to contextual community empowerment in order to ensure the continuity of every technological solution for a consistent eradication of local vulnerabilities, including possible changes of required approach alongside the shift.

Aggregate Risk Analysis is a computationally intensive and a data intensive problem, thereby making the application of high-performance computing techniques interesting. In this paper, the design and implementation of a parallel Aggregate Risk Analysis algorithm on multi-core CPU and many-core GPU platforms are explored. The efficient computation of key risk measures, including Probable Maximum Loss (PML) and the Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR) in the presence of both primary and secondary uncertainty for a portfolio of property catastrophe insurance treaties is considered. {\it Primary Uncertainty} is the the uncertainty associated with whether a catastrophe event occurs or not in a simulated year, while {\it Secondary Uncertainty} is the uncertainty in the amount of loss when the event occurs.

A number of statistical algorithms are investigated for computing secondary uncertainty. Numerous challenges such as loading large data onto hardware with limited memory and organising it are addressed. The results obtained from experimental studies are encouraging. Consider for example, an aggregate risk analysis involving 800,000 trials, with 1,000 catastrophic events per trial, a million locations, and a complex contract structure taking into account secondary uncertainty. The analysis can be performed in just 41 seconds on a GPU, that is 24x faster than the sequential counterpart on a fast multi-core CPU. The results indicate that GPUs can be used to efficiently accelerate aggregate risk analysis even in the presence of secondary uncertainty.

Volcanic ashes from the Puna and surrounding Andean areas in northern Argentina show that sometimes
volcanic ash deposits are very well preserved (up to several million years) and can remain a
potential hazard for the environment in a similar way as current deposits. Eight ashes have been
characterized by SEM–EDX and DRX, and their potential released geochemical fluxes were examined
by using water and nitric acid batches, which are analyzed by ICP-OES, ICP-MS and ISE (F).
Results demonstrate that water batch system is better medium than nitric acid for this study. The
high and fast reactivity of these ancient ashes is mainly associated with their high content in glass.
The order of magnitude of released contents of implied elements is consistent among the samples,
i.e., Al>B>Fe>Zn>F>P>Mn>Ba>Sr>Li > Ti>Rb>Cu>Ni > Sb>Pb>As>Cr>V. Ash–water interaction,
although infrequent in arid regions such as the Puna Region in northern Argentina, introduces rapid
changes in the geochemical fluxes of elements and pH and may constitute a potential hazard for the
environment. In fact, many of these elements are included in the drinking water guidelines due to their
potential toxicity and may constitute potential hazards for the environment and human health.

On May 4, 2007, a 1.5 mile wide Category F-5 tornado, with winds estimated at 205 miles per hour, destroyed 95% of the southwestern Kansas town of Greensburg.  Utilizing data collected from in-person and telephone surveys of 63 Greensburg tornado survivors, this paper investigates the emergency responses undertaken in the aftermath of this extreme event.  Specifically this paper examines the search and rescue operations, emergency supplies and medical care (including mental health counseling), debris removal, and the provision of temporary shelter for tornado victims.  Given the extent of the tornado’s destruction of commercial and residential buildings in Greensburg, information on the prospect of rebuilding was also collected from victims and other relevant private and public agencies, and individuals.  Analysis of the survey data reveals that overwhelming majority of the respondents expressed their satisfaction with the emergency responses.  But most of them maintain that rebuilding and reconstruction of Greensburg is progressing slowly, which may hurt its recovery.  Another potential barrier for recovery is the plan of the city government to turn Greensburg into Green Town.