The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting
U.S. state governments over the years have developed a number of methods for predicting fiscal di... more U.S. state governments over the years have developed a number of methods for predicting fiscal distress and defaults by their local governments. These systems encompass a range of conceptual understanding and practical approaches, and involve varying data requirements and analytic demands. A widespread prediction strategy is to compute indexes of fiscal stress based on financial and other indicators. This chapter assesses the predictive accuracy of three well-documented and carefully argued indicator systems, by computing indicator scores for a sample of three bankrupt general-purpose local governments and six matched jurisdictions that did not declare bankruptcy, over a ten-year period that included the years leading up to the three bankruptcy proceedings. The goal was to answer two primary questions. First, are the indicators all measuring the same thing? How closely do different indicator systems agree in their scoring of a given jurisdiction? Second, to what extent are the indicators predictively valid? How good a job do they do of predicting severe fiscal distress and of distinguishing between cities that did and did not enter bankruptcy? The system developed and currently used by Ohio’s Auditor of State performed well. The system developed in 2002 for Michigan’s State Treasurer (no longer used) and a system subsequently proposed by academic researchers as a potential improvement to it (not implemented) both performed less well.
The American Review of Public Administration, 2013
equally occupied with other issues, many of which have a distinct locally embedded component . . ... more equally occupied with other issues, many of which have a distinct locally embedded component . . . fix the car parking on a crowded site, maintain old and leaking buildings, rebuild one floor of a 1960s tower block so that it will accommodate the latest scanner, debate with doctors who want to move the whole operation to a new, greenfield-site hospital out of town and respond to articulate groups of local residents who are opposed to moving the local accident and emergency department to a bigger hospital. . . . These highly specific, place-based issues demand a good deal of managers’ time and skills, but lack the glamour that apparently attaches to the latest management technique. (p. 158)
Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management
Rainy day stabilization funds (RDSFs) and local option sales taxes (LOSTs) are two strategies loc... more Rainy day stabilization funds (RDSFs) and local option sales taxes (LOSTs) are two strategies local governments deploy to combat fiscal stress. While the literature on both is robust, it has thus far failed to consider empirically that the two may be connected. One way the marginal LOST dollar could be spent is by saving it for future use. We test the connection with a sample of 414 counties and correct for selection bias with the Heckman correction technique. We find that each $10 increase in LOST revenue per capita is associated with a $0.10 increase in undesignated general fund balance. Though small, the positive effect size supports the theory that LOSTs contribute to a greater propensity to save.
International Journal of Technology Diffusion, 2014
Keenly aware of the growing number of people using social networks to communicate, governments ha... more Keenly aware of the growing number of people using social networks to communicate, governments have begun to provide this popular form of communication on their own web sites in an effort to promote engagement among residents and public administrators. Yet despite the growing popularity of social networks on government web sites, it is unclear whether municipalities have begun providing links to social network sites on their homepage that allow users to discuss salient issues directly with elected officials. Furthermore, for cities that do offer this heightened level of engagement, it is unclear if an implementation strategy was followed. This exploratory study examines the factors impacting U.S. local governments to provide social network applications that allow users to communicate directly with elected officials on the government website. The study then explores the benefits and challenges elected officials face when determining the extent of their public communication efforts. F...
International Journal of Technology Diffusion, Apr 1, 2011
ABSTRACT This paper highlights the research findings of a digital governance survey conducted in ... more ABSTRACT This paper highlights the research findings of a digital governance survey conducted in the fall of 2009. The study replicates previous surveys of large municipalities worldwide in 2007, 2005, and 2003. This longitudinal assessment, focused on the assessment of current practices in municipal e-governance by evaluating their official websites. Specifically, the survey analyzed security, usability, content, the type of online services currently being offered, citizen response, and participation through websites established by city governments worldwide. There were significant changes in the top ranking cities when compared to previous studies. Based on the 2009 evaluation of 87 cities, Seoul, Prague, Hong Kong, New York, and Singapore represent the highest performing cities in digital governance. Moreover, there continues to be a divide in terms of digital governance throughout the world; however, this divide, which increased in 2005, decreased in 2009.
The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting
U.S. state governments over the years have developed a number of methods for predicting fiscal di... more U.S. state governments over the years have developed a number of methods for predicting fiscal distress and defaults by their local governments. These systems encompass a range of conceptual understanding and practical approaches, and involve varying data requirements and analytic demands. A widespread prediction strategy is to compute indexes of fiscal stress based on financial and other indicators. This chapter assesses the predictive accuracy of three well-documented and carefully argued indicator systems, by computing indicator scores for a sample of three bankrupt general-purpose local governments and six matched jurisdictions that did not declare bankruptcy, over a ten-year period that included the years leading up to the three bankruptcy proceedings. The goal was to answer two primary questions. First, are the indicators all measuring the same thing? How closely do different indicator systems agree in their scoring of a given jurisdiction? Second, to what extent are the indicators predictively valid? How good a job do they do of predicting severe fiscal distress and of distinguishing between cities that did and did not enter bankruptcy? The system developed and currently used by Ohio’s Auditor of State performed well. The system developed in 2002 for Michigan’s State Treasurer (no longer used) and a system subsequently proposed by academic researchers as a potential improvement to it (not implemented) both performed less well.
The American Review of Public Administration, 2013
equally occupied with other issues, many of which have a distinct locally embedded component . . ... more equally occupied with other issues, many of which have a distinct locally embedded component . . . fix the car parking on a crowded site, maintain old and leaking buildings, rebuild one floor of a 1960s tower block so that it will accommodate the latest scanner, debate with doctors who want to move the whole operation to a new, greenfield-site hospital out of town and respond to articulate groups of local residents who are opposed to moving the local accident and emergency department to a bigger hospital. . . . These highly specific, place-based issues demand a good deal of managers’ time and skills, but lack the glamour that apparently attaches to the latest management technique. (p. 158)
Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management
Rainy day stabilization funds (RDSFs) and local option sales taxes (LOSTs) are two strategies loc... more Rainy day stabilization funds (RDSFs) and local option sales taxes (LOSTs) are two strategies local governments deploy to combat fiscal stress. While the literature on both is robust, it has thus far failed to consider empirically that the two may be connected. One way the marginal LOST dollar could be spent is by saving it for future use. We test the connection with a sample of 414 counties and correct for selection bias with the Heckman correction technique. We find that each $10 increase in LOST revenue per capita is associated with a $0.10 increase in undesignated general fund balance. Though small, the positive effect size supports the theory that LOSTs contribute to a greater propensity to save.
International Journal of Technology Diffusion, 2014
Keenly aware of the growing number of people using social networks to communicate, governments ha... more Keenly aware of the growing number of people using social networks to communicate, governments have begun to provide this popular form of communication on their own web sites in an effort to promote engagement among residents and public administrators. Yet despite the growing popularity of social networks on government web sites, it is unclear whether municipalities have begun providing links to social network sites on their homepage that allow users to discuss salient issues directly with elected officials. Furthermore, for cities that do offer this heightened level of engagement, it is unclear if an implementation strategy was followed. This exploratory study examines the factors impacting U.S. local governments to provide social network applications that allow users to communicate directly with elected officials on the government website. The study then explores the benefits and challenges elected officials face when determining the extent of their public communication efforts. F...
International Journal of Technology Diffusion, Apr 1, 2011
ABSTRACT This paper highlights the research findings of a digital governance survey conducted in ... more ABSTRACT This paper highlights the research findings of a digital governance survey conducted in the fall of 2009. The study replicates previous surveys of large municipalities worldwide in 2007, 2005, and 2003. This longitudinal assessment, focused on the assessment of current practices in municipal e-governance by evaluating their official websites. Specifically, the survey analyzed security, usability, content, the type of online services currently being offered, citizen response, and participation through websites established by city governments worldwide. There were significant changes in the top ranking cities when compared to previous studies. Based on the 2009 evaluation of 87 cities, Seoul, Prague, Hong Kong, New York, and Singapore represent the highest performing cities in digital governance. Moreover, there continues to be a divide in terms of digital governance throughout the world; however, this divide, which increased in 2005, decreased in 2009.
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Papers by Marc Fudge