YÛNUS EMRE ANISINA TÜRKİYE VE TÜRK DÜNYASI ARAŞTIRMALARI-IX, 2021
The rise of China as an economic power has resulted in foreign policy
shifts in Eurasia in recent... more The rise of China as an economic power has resulted in foreign policy shifts in Eurasia in recent years. Turkey’s foreign policy has also shifted towards Eurasia, expanding its reach into the Central Asian countries including; Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. This chapter analyses the prospects of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) and Middle Corridor Initiative (MCI) for the regional economies in the aftermath of the NagornoKarabakh War in 2020. The victory of Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, led to an agreement between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. The agreement included establishing the "Nakhchivan Corridor" which links Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan (A province of Azerbaijan). The new corridor paves the way for a new window of opportunities for the Caucasus region as a whole. The “Nakhchivan corridor” will add a new artery to the Middle Corridor benefiting regional economic development. Nakhchivan Corridor will be built between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan via Armenia, connecting Turkey to Central Asia. The "Nakhchivan Corridor" is a strategic corridor stretching to Central Asia and likely to change the energy and trade equation in the Caucasus region.
Amerikan Merkez Bankası FED’in para politikalarındaki değişiklikler, Neo-liberal politikalarla be... more Amerikan Merkez Bankası FED’in para politikalarındaki değişiklikler, Neo-liberal politikalarla benimsenen sermayenin serbest dolaşımı ve doların rezerv para statüsü Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerin finansal ve ekonomik değişkenlerini olumsuz etkilemektedir. FED in Amerikan ekonomisinin ihtiyaçlarına göre belirlediği para politikaları ve doların rezerv para statüsü, dolarize olmuş gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde krizlerin önemli nedenlerinden biri haline gelmiştir. Bu durum gelişmekte olan ülkelerden servet transferlerine neden olduğu için G20 liderler zirvelerinde doların uluslararası ticaret ve finansmandaki rolü tartışılır hale gelmiştir. FED’in sıkı para politikası uygulamaları ile artan ABD faizleri, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin devalüasyondan korunmak için faiz arttırmalarına ve böylece resesyona girmelerine neden olmaktadır. Aynı şekilde, FED’in genişlemeci para politikaları da gelişmekte olan ülkelere sermaye girişlerinin artmasına, dolayısı ile finansal piyasalarda ve gayrimenkul piyasalarında balonlar oluşmasına, borçluluk oranlarının artmasına ve ardından da resesyona neden olmaktadır. Her iki durum da gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde olumsuz etkilere neden olmakta ve böylece doların rezerv para statüsü tartışmaya açılmaktadır.
FED's recent quantitative easing following the outbreak of COVID-19, had a negative impact on eme... more FED's recent quantitative easing following the outbreak of COVID-19, had a negative impact on emerging market (EM) currencies, resulting in sharp declines, contrary to 2008 FED easing. This study analyses the potential impact of COVID-19 on emerging market debt and currencies and reviews possible solutions for sustainable development in emerging markets along with the IMF’s inability to offer solutions to the problem. The study concludes with some policy recommendations for sustainable development in emerging markets. Contribution of the study is empirical as it is a pioneer work in addressing the upcoming debt and currency problems and reviewing possible solutions for sustainable development. Paper reviews and discusses the global debt problem, offers unorthodox solutions and policy recommendations for EM decision makers to prevent slow down in emerging markets as well as in global economy. Keywords: COVID-19, Sustainable Development, Emerging Markets
The most important challenge for both developed and developing countries is to ensure sustainabil... more The most important challenge for both developed and developing countries is to ensure sustainability while struggling with environmental degradation. CO 2 emissions as a proxy for environmental degradation can be considered an obstacle to sustainability. There exist several significant works in the literature on the effects of solar energy use on environmental degradation/sustainability. In this study, the effects of the use of solar energy within different time and frequency dimensions on CO 2 emissions were examined with the methodology of the continuous wavelet transform. The paper investigated the association between solar energy consumption and total energy-related CO 2 emissions in the USA through Morlet wavelet analysis, which is one of the most advanced time-frequency analysis methods for the period 1990:1-2022:6. In the wavelet coherency computations, geothermal energy consumption, hydroelectric energy consumption, industrial production, and manufacturing industry production variables were also included as control variables. Empirical findings demonstrate that solar energy consumption can have reducing effects on CO 2 emissions at lower frequencies (longer-term cycles) and sub-time periods (2014:1-2022:1) in the USA. The findings can guide the energy and environmental policies of developed and developing countries that aim to struggle with global warming and/or climate change through the increase in solar energy usage.
The role of solar energy usage in environmental sustainability: Fresh evidence through time-frequency analyses, 2023
The most important challenge for both developed and developing countries is to ensure sustainabil... more The most important challenge for both developed and developing countries is to ensure sustainability while struggling with environmental degradation. CO 2 emissions as a proxy for environmental degradation can be considered an obstacle to sustainability. There exist several significant works in the literature on the effects of solar energy use on environmental degradation/sustainability. In this study, the effects of the use of solar energy within different time and frequency dimensions on CO 2 emissions were examined with the methodology of the continuous wavelet transform. The paper investigated the association between solar energy consumption and total energy-related CO 2 emissions in the USA through Morlet wavelet analysis, which is one of the most advanced time-frequency analysis methods for the period 1990:1-2022:6. In the wavelet coherency computations, geothermal energy consumption, hydroelectric energy consumption, industrial production, and manufacturing industry production variables were also included as control variables. Empirical findings demonstrate that solar energy consumption can have reducing effects on CO 2 emissions at lower frequencies (longer-term cycles) and sub-time periods (2014:1-2022:1) in the USA. The findings can guide the energy and environmental policies of developed and developing countries that aim to struggle with global warming and/or climate change through the increase in solar energy usage.
A Practical Risk Analysis of The Brent Oil Prices, 2023
This research investigates three approaches to determine the best model for identifying risk in B... more This research investigates three approaches to determine the best model for identifying risk in Brent oil prices: Value at Risk, Monte Carlo Simulations, and Conditional Value At Risk (CVaR). The study also aims to contribute to the literature by examining whether it is possible to measure risk in advance for Brent oil prices and compares the performance of various risk measurement models to determine the bestperforming method in measuring risk. Our findings show that the VaR model underestimated risk at the 95% confidence level. This may be due to the non-normal distribution of returns. Our results on conditional value at risk (CVaR) indicate that CVaR produced superior results compared to VaR in cases where the distribution of returns was highly skewed or had fat tails. This is because the expected shortfall measure takes into account expected loss beyond the VaR threshold.
YÛNUS EMRE ANISINA TÜRKİYE VE TÜRK DÜNYASI ARAŞTIRMALARI-IX, 2021
The rise of China as an economic power has resulted in foreign policy
shifts in Eurasia in recent... more The rise of China as an economic power has resulted in foreign policy shifts in Eurasia in recent years. Turkey’s foreign policy has also shifted towards Eurasia, expanding its reach into the Central Asian countries including; Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. This chapter analyses the prospects of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) and Middle Corridor Initiative (MCI) for the regional economies in the aftermath of the NagornoKarabakh War in 2020. The victory of Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, led to an agreement between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. The agreement included establishing the "Nakhchivan Corridor" which links Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan (A province of Azerbaijan). The new corridor paves the way for a new window of opportunities for the Caucasus region as a whole. The “Nakhchivan corridor” will add a new artery to the Middle Corridor benefiting regional economic development. Nakhchivan Corridor will be built between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan via Armenia, connecting Turkey to Central Asia. The "Nakhchivan Corridor" is a strategic corridor stretching to Central Asia and likely to change the energy and trade equation in the Caucasus region.
Amerikan Merkez Bankası FED’in para politikalarındaki değişiklikler, Neo-liberal politikalarla be... more Amerikan Merkez Bankası FED’in para politikalarındaki değişiklikler, Neo-liberal politikalarla benimsenen sermayenin serbest dolaşımı ve doların rezerv para statüsü Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerin finansal ve ekonomik değişkenlerini olumsuz etkilemektedir. FED in Amerikan ekonomisinin ihtiyaçlarına göre belirlediği para politikaları ve doların rezerv para statüsü, dolarize olmuş gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde krizlerin önemli nedenlerinden biri haline gelmiştir. Bu durum gelişmekte olan ülkelerden servet transferlerine neden olduğu için G20 liderler zirvelerinde doların uluslararası ticaret ve finansmandaki rolü tartışılır hale gelmiştir. FED’in sıkı para politikası uygulamaları ile artan ABD faizleri, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin devalüasyondan korunmak için faiz arttırmalarına ve böylece resesyona girmelerine neden olmaktadır. Aynı şekilde, FED’in genişlemeci para politikaları da gelişmekte olan ülkelere sermaye girişlerinin artmasına, dolayısı ile finansal piyasalarda ve gayrimenkul piyasalarında balonlar oluşmasına, borçluluk oranlarının artmasına ve ardından da resesyona neden olmaktadır. Her iki durum da gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde olumsuz etkilere neden olmakta ve böylece doların rezerv para statüsü tartışmaya açılmaktadır.
FED's recent quantitative easing following the outbreak of COVID-19, had a negative impact on eme... more FED's recent quantitative easing following the outbreak of COVID-19, had a negative impact on emerging market (EM) currencies, resulting in sharp declines, contrary to 2008 FED easing. This study analyses the potential impact of COVID-19 on emerging market debt and currencies and reviews possible solutions for sustainable development in emerging markets along with the IMF’s inability to offer solutions to the problem. The study concludes with some policy recommendations for sustainable development in emerging markets. Contribution of the study is empirical as it is a pioneer work in addressing the upcoming debt and currency problems and reviewing possible solutions for sustainable development. Paper reviews and discusses the global debt problem, offers unorthodox solutions and policy recommendations for EM decision makers to prevent slow down in emerging markets as well as in global economy. Keywords: COVID-19, Sustainable Development, Emerging Markets
The most important challenge for both developed and developing countries is to ensure sustainabil... more The most important challenge for both developed and developing countries is to ensure sustainability while struggling with environmental degradation. CO 2 emissions as a proxy for environmental degradation can be considered an obstacle to sustainability. There exist several significant works in the literature on the effects of solar energy use on environmental degradation/sustainability. In this study, the effects of the use of solar energy within different time and frequency dimensions on CO 2 emissions were examined with the methodology of the continuous wavelet transform. The paper investigated the association between solar energy consumption and total energy-related CO 2 emissions in the USA through Morlet wavelet analysis, which is one of the most advanced time-frequency analysis methods for the period 1990:1-2022:6. In the wavelet coherency computations, geothermal energy consumption, hydroelectric energy consumption, industrial production, and manufacturing industry production variables were also included as control variables. Empirical findings demonstrate that solar energy consumption can have reducing effects on CO 2 emissions at lower frequencies (longer-term cycles) and sub-time periods (2014:1-2022:1) in the USA. The findings can guide the energy and environmental policies of developed and developing countries that aim to struggle with global warming and/or climate change through the increase in solar energy usage.
The role of solar energy usage in environmental sustainability: Fresh evidence through time-frequency analyses, 2023
The most important challenge for both developed and developing countries is to ensure sustainabil... more The most important challenge for both developed and developing countries is to ensure sustainability while struggling with environmental degradation. CO 2 emissions as a proxy for environmental degradation can be considered an obstacle to sustainability. There exist several significant works in the literature on the effects of solar energy use on environmental degradation/sustainability. In this study, the effects of the use of solar energy within different time and frequency dimensions on CO 2 emissions were examined with the methodology of the continuous wavelet transform. The paper investigated the association between solar energy consumption and total energy-related CO 2 emissions in the USA through Morlet wavelet analysis, which is one of the most advanced time-frequency analysis methods for the period 1990:1-2022:6. In the wavelet coherency computations, geothermal energy consumption, hydroelectric energy consumption, industrial production, and manufacturing industry production variables were also included as control variables. Empirical findings demonstrate that solar energy consumption can have reducing effects on CO 2 emissions at lower frequencies (longer-term cycles) and sub-time periods (2014:1-2022:1) in the USA. The findings can guide the energy and environmental policies of developed and developing countries that aim to struggle with global warming and/or climate change through the increase in solar energy usage.
A Practical Risk Analysis of The Brent Oil Prices, 2023
This research investigates three approaches to determine the best model for identifying risk in B... more This research investigates three approaches to determine the best model for identifying risk in Brent oil prices: Value at Risk, Monte Carlo Simulations, and Conditional Value At Risk (CVaR). The study also aims to contribute to the literature by examining whether it is possible to measure risk in advance for Brent oil prices and compares the performance of various risk measurement models to determine the bestperforming method in measuring risk. Our findings show that the VaR model underestimated risk at the 95% confidence level. This may be due to the non-normal distribution of returns. Our results on conditional value at risk (CVaR) indicate that CVaR produced superior results compared to VaR in cases where the distribution of returns was highly skewed or had fat tails. This is because the expected shortfall measure takes into account expected loss beyond the VaR threshold.
In this research, we aim at exploring the influence of renewables on industrial production (Ip) i... more In this research, we aim at exploring the influence of renewables on industrial production (Ip) in the US by following continuous wavelet coherence and partial continuous wavelet coherence analyses. To this end, we observed the co-movements between, biofuels and Ip, solar and Ip, wind and Ip, geothermal and Ip, wood and Ip, and, waste and Ip in the US for the monthly period from January 1989 to November 2016.
THE COINTEGRATION RELATION BETWEEN THE DOLLAR SUPPLY, THE DOLLAR/TL EXCHANGE RATE AND TURKISH BOND YIELDS: ARDL Bound Test Appoach, 2021
Rezerv para arzında meydana gelen şoklar, artan küreselleşme ve serbestleşen uluslararası sermaye... more Rezerv para arzında meydana gelen şoklar, artan küreselleşme ve serbestleşen uluslararası sermaye hareketleri ile gelişmekte olan ülkelerde politika faizleri üzerinden varlık fiyatlarını ve döviz kurlarını etkilemektedir. Parasal aktarım kanallarının çalışma mekanizmaları her ülkenin ekonomik ve finansal yapısına göre farklılık göstermektedir. Parasal aktarım kanalları her ülke için farklı sonuçlar verdiğinden, bu kanalların işleyiş mekanizmaları üzerinde konsensüs sağlanamamış ve her ülke için ampirik analiz yapma zorunluluğu ortaya çıkmıştır.
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Books by nurhan toguc
shifts in Eurasia in recent years. Turkey’s foreign policy has also
shifted towards Eurasia, expanding its reach into the Central Asian
countries including; Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. This chapter analyses the prospects of
the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) and Middle Corridor Initiative
(MCI) for the regional economies in the aftermath of the NagornoKarabakh War in 2020.
The victory of Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, led
to an agreement between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. The
agreement included establishing the "Nakhchivan Corridor" which
links Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan (A province of Azerbaijan). The new
corridor paves the way for a new window of opportunities for the
Caucasus region as a whole.
The “Nakhchivan corridor” will add a new artery to the Middle
Corridor benefiting regional economic development. Nakhchivan
Corridor will be built between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan via
Armenia, connecting Turkey to Central Asia. The "Nakhchivan
Corridor" is a strategic corridor stretching to Central Asia and likely to
change the energy and trade equation in the Caucasus region.
Conference Presentations by nurhan toguc
This study analyses the potential impact of COVID-19 on emerging market debt and currencies and reviews possible solutions for sustainable development in emerging markets along with the IMF’s
inability to offer solutions to the problem. The study concludes with some policy recommendations for sustainable development in emerging markets.
Contribution of the study is empirical as it is a pioneer work in addressing the upcoming debt and currency problems and reviewing possible solutions for sustainable development.
Paper reviews and discusses the global debt problem, offers unorthodox solutions and policy recommendations for EM decision makers to prevent slow down in emerging markets as well as in global economy.
Keywords: COVID-19, Sustainable Development, Emerging Markets
Papers by nurhan toguc
shifts in Eurasia in recent years. Turkey’s foreign policy has also
shifted towards Eurasia, expanding its reach into the Central Asian
countries including; Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. This chapter analyses the prospects of
the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) and Middle Corridor Initiative
(MCI) for the regional economies in the aftermath of the NagornoKarabakh War in 2020.
The victory of Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, led
to an agreement between Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. The
agreement included establishing the "Nakhchivan Corridor" which
links Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan (A province of Azerbaijan). The new
corridor paves the way for a new window of opportunities for the
Caucasus region as a whole.
The “Nakhchivan corridor” will add a new artery to the Middle
Corridor benefiting regional economic development. Nakhchivan
Corridor will be built between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan via
Armenia, connecting Turkey to Central Asia. The "Nakhchivan
Corridor" is a strategic corridor stretching to Central Asia and likely to
change the energy and trade equation in the Caucasus region.
This study analyses the potential impact of COVID-19 on emerging market debt and currencies and reviews possible solutions for sustainable development in emerging markets along with the IMF’s
inability to offer solutions to the problem. The study concludes with some policy recommendations for sustainable development in emerging markets.
Contribution of the study is empirical as it is a pioneer work in addressing the upcoming debt and currency problems and reviewing possible solutions for sustainable development.
Paper reviews and discusses the global debt problem, offers unorthodox solutions and policy recommendations for EM decision makers to prevent slow down in emerging markets as well as in global economy.
Keywords: COVID-19, Sustainable Development, Emerging Markets