A novel migration model based on a demographic-economic approach is proposed in this chapter and ... more A novel migration model based on a demographic-economic approach is proposed in this chapter and then demonstrated with an application to interprovincial migration data for Canada. The first section reviews briefly how past multiregional forecasting efforts undertaken in North America have handled migration. Two approaches are examined: the traditional demographic approach used by U.S. and Canadian census bureaus, and the experimental demographic-economic approach which appeared recently. For the latter approach, the nature of the migration data accessible severely restricts the choice among modeling strategies. If time-series data on interregional migration can be obtained from a primary source, three options are available: net migration, gross inmigration and outmigration, or place-to-place migration flows can be modeled. Among these options, the one that emphasizes regional gross outflows and inflows appears to have received the least satisfactory treatment to date. Thus the rest of this chapter is devoted to improving the use of this option.
"This paper analyzes the joint effects of ecological and personal factors on elderly migration in... more "This paper analyzes the joint effects of ecological and personal factors on elderly migration in Canada in the late 1970s, using information on migration and personal factors extracted from the individual file of the 1981 Public Use Sample. Our focus on elderly Canadians stems from the expectation that the Canadian population will continue to age rapidly over the next three decades and that the elderly's demand for services (for example, health care and income maintenance) will expand rapidly as a consequence. Some of these services are clearly location-specific and should be matched to the changing distribution of the elderly population, which is, of course, affected by geographic mobility." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
International Regional Science Review, Apr 1, 1981
An integrated model is proposed to capture economic and demographic interactions in a system of r... more An integrated model is proposed to capture economic and demographic interactions in a system of regions. This model links the interregional economic model of Isard (1960) and the interregional demographic model of Rogers (1975) via functions describing consumption and migration patterns. Migration rates are determined jointly with labor force participation rates and unemployment rates.
The fundamental question addressed in this chapter is the reasonableness of available projections... more The fundamental question addressed in this chapter is the reasonableness of available projections of urbanization such as those recently published by the United Nations....Drawing on simple models of urban and rural population dynamics we propose two alternative methods for assessing projected urbanization paths in terms of their underlying assumptions. One focuses on the implied rural-urban migration flows whereas the other emphasizes the association between urbanization and economic development. The case of the Asian Pacific region is given as an example. (EXCERPT)
Ce rapport de recherche prepare pour la Direction regionale de l’ile de Montreal d’Emploi-Quebec ... more Ce rapport de recherche prepare pour la Direction regionale de l’ile de Montreal d’Emploi-Quebec est une mise a jour, mais aussi une refonte approfondie du travail effectue sur la base des donnees du recensement de 2001 par EduConseil. Tout comme le rapport precedent, il a pour objectif essentiel de brosser un portrait socio-economique de la population immigrante. En accord avec le devis propose par le commanditaire, ce portrait descriptif est realise a l’aide de donnees de tableaux croises extraits du Recensement de 2006 effectue par Statistique Canada. L’objectif principal est de fournir une interpretation des donnees socio-economiques relatives a la population immigrante residant sur l’ile de Montreal de maniere a apprehender les difficultes d’integration economique et professionnelle de celle-ci.
The development of multidimensional mathematical demography and its application to the analysis o... more The development of multidimensional mathematical demography and its application to the analysis of such changes in life status as marriage, occupation, and migration is discussed. "This article presents an overview of the methods and models specific to this new branch. It stresses (1) their relationship with the methods and models of classical mathematical demography, (2) their field of application, (3) their elaboration, and (4) a few methodological and empirical questions raised by their use." (summary in ENG, SPA)
"To provide new insight into the evolution of multiregional population systems, this article pres... more "To provide new insight into the evolution of multiregional population systems, this article presents a dynamic study of a nonlinear variant of the components-of-change model. In this variant, migrants out of a region do not distribute themselves among destination regions in constant proportions (as in the classical linear variant). Rather their allocation is proportional to that of population (weighted so as to account for the difficulty to move between regions). The analysis focuses on the existence, characteristics, and determination of equilibrium states. It is illustrated with an application to the population of Canada and its five large regions." (summary in ENG)
The topic of this paper revolves around the calculation of those combined life tables that allow ... more The topic of this paper revolves around the calculation of those combined life tables that allow entries as well as withdrawals from alternative states, namely, increment-decrement life tables. The paper provides a complete theoretical presentation of such tables, focusing on the contrasts between the movement and the transition approaches. It also sets forth, for both approaches, life table construction methods based on three alternative methodological variations: the linear and the cubic integration methods, and an interpolative-iterative method. Finally, the paper develops more precise methods for constructing a multiregional life table, for which the generally available death and migration rates are not consistent with either the movement or the transition approaches.
... CONCLUSION REFERENCES Page 8. SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND THE PENSION PROBLEM IN FRANCE Jea... more ... CONCLUSION REFERENCES Page 8. SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND THE PENSION PROBLEM IN FRANCE Jean-Louis Rallu ... As long as a substantial increase in 1st-birth-order fertility does not occur, overall fertility will remain well under the replacement level. ...
A novel migration model based on a demographic-economic approach is proposed in this chapter and ... more A novel migration model based on a demographic-economic approach is proposed in this chapter and then demonstrated with an application to interprovincial migration data for Canada. The first section reviews briefly how past multiregional forecasting efforts undertaken in North America have handled migration. Two approaches are examined: the traditional demographic approach used by U.S. and Canadian census bureaus, and the experimental demographic-economic approach which appeared recently. For the latter approach, the nature of the migration data accessible severely restricts the choice among modeling strategies. If time-series data on interregional migration can be obtained from a primary source, three options are available: net migration, gross inmigration and outmigration, or place-to-place migration flows can be modeled. Among these options, the one that emphasizes regional gross outflows and inflows appears to have received the least satisfactory treatment to date. Thus the rest of this chapter is devoted to improving the use of this option.
"This paper analyzes the joint effects of ecological and personal factors on elderly migration in... more "This paper analyzes the joint effects of ecological and personal factors on elderly migration in Canada in the late 1970s, using information on migration and personal factors extracted from the individual file of the 1981 Public Use Sample. Our focus on elderly Canadians stems from the expectation that the Canadian population will continue to age rapidly over the next three decades and that the elderly's demand for services (for example, health care and income maintenance) will expand rapidly as a consequence. Some of these services are clearly location-specific and should be matched to the changing distribution of the elderly population, which is, of course, affected by geographic mobility." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
International Regional Science Review, Apr 1, 1981
An integrated model is proposed to capture economic and demographic interactions in a system of r... more An integrated model is proposed to capture economic and demographic interactions in a system of regions. This model links the interregional economic model of Isard (1960) and the interregional demographic model of Rogers (1975) via functions describing consumption and migration patterns. Migration rates are determined jointly with labor force participation rates and unemployment rates.
The fundamental question addressed in this chapter is the reasonableness of available projections... more The fundamental question addressed in this chapter is the reasonableness of available projections of urbanization such as those recently published by the United Nations....Drawing on simple models of urban and rural population dynamics we propose two alternative methods for assessing projected urbanization paths in terms of their underlying assumptions. One focuses on the implied rural-urban migration flows whereas the other emphasizes the association between urbanization and economic development. The case of the Asian Pacific region is given as an example. (EXCERPT)
Ce rapport de recherche prepare pour la Direction regionale de l’ile de Montreal d’Emploi-Quebec ... more Ce rapport de recherche prepare pour la Direction regionale de l’ile de Montreal d’Emploi-Quebec est une mise a jour, mais aussi une refonte approfondie du travail effectue sur la base des donnees du recensement de 2001 par EduConseil. Tout comme le rapport precedent, il a pour objectif essentiel de brosser un portrait socio-economique de la population immigrante. En accord avec le devis propose par le commanditaire, ce portrait descriptif est realise a l’aide de donnees de tableaux croises extraits du Recensement de 2006 effectue par Statistique Canada. L’objectif principal est de fournir une interpretation des donnees socio-economiques relatives a la population immigrante residant sur l’ile de Montreal de maniere a apprehender les difficultes d’integration economique et professionnelle de celle-ci.
The development of multidimensional mathematical demography and its application to the analysis o... more The development of multidimensional mathematical demography and its application to the analysis of such changes in life status as marriage, occupation, and migration is discussed. "This article presents an overview of the methods and models specific to this new branch. It stresses (1) their relationship with the methods and models of classical mathematical demography, (2) their field of application, (3) their elaboration, and (4) a few methodological and empirical questions raised by their use." (summary in ENG, SPA)
"To provide new insight into the evolution of multiregional population systems, this article pres... more "To provide new insight into the evolution of multiregional population systems, this article presents a dynamic study of a nonlinear variant of the components-of-change model. In this variant, migrants out of a region do not distribute themselves among destination regions in constant proportions (as in the classical linear variant). Rather their allocation is proportional to that of population (weighted so as to account for the difficulty to move between regions). The analysis focuses on the existence, characteristics, and determination of equilibrium states. It is illustrated with an application to the population of Canada and its five large regions." (summary in ENG)
The topic of this paper revolves around the calculation of those combined life tables that allow ... more The topic of this paper revolves around the calculation of those combined life tables that allow entries as well as withdrawals from alternative states, namely, increment-decrement life tables. The paper provides a complete theoretical presentation of such tables, focusing on the contrasts between the movement and the transition approaches. It also sets forth, for both approaches, life table construction methods based on three alternative methodological variations: the linear and the cubic integration methods, and an interpolative-iterative method. Finally, the paper develops more precise methods for constructing a multiregional life table, for which the generally available death and migration rates are not consistent with either the movement or the transition approaches.
... CONCLUSION REFERENCES Page 8. SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND THE PENSION PROBLEM IN FRANCE Jea... more ... CONCLUSION REFERENCES Page 8. SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND THE PENSION PROBLEM IN FRANCE Jean-Louis Rallu ... As long as a substantial increase in 1st-birth-order fertility does not occur, overall fertility will remain well under the replacement level. ...
Journal of International Migration and Integration, Nov 2011
Au moyen de données administratives en provenance des autorités provinciales ou locales, cet arti... more Au moyen de données administratives en provenance des autorités provinciales ou locales, cet article examine le cheminement scolaire des jeunes allophones dans le secteur linguistique dominant des trois principales villes de réception de l’immigration canadienne : français à Montréal, anglais à Toronto et Vancouver. Dans chacune des trois villes, bien qu’ils possèdent des caractéristiques comparativement plus négatives, les allophones (groupe-cible) connaissent une réussite plus ou moins comparable à celle des non-allophones (groupe-contrôle), tant en termes de taux cumulatifs de graduation que de choix de cours sélectifs menant au CEGEP ou à l’université. Il n’en reste pas moins que cette réussite varie d’un sous-groupe linguistique à un autre, la hiérarchie entre les sous-groupes linguistiques variant d’ailleurs d’une ville à l’autre. Cependant, une analyse de régression multivariée révèle, après contrôle des différences de caractéristiques entre les deux groupes, que la réussite est clairement en faveur du groupe-cible et en particulier du sous-groupe de locuteurs du chinois et ce, dans les trois villes. En outre, l’analyse de régression examine, pour chacune des trois villes, les facteurs de risque de la réussite relatifs au groupe-cible et les compare avec ceux relatifs au groupe-contrôle.
Cet article présente un portrait du cheminement scolaire des élèves québécois issus de l’immigrat... more Cet article présente un portrait du cheminement scolaire des élèves québécois issus de l’immigration qui ont commencé leur secondaire dans le secteur francophone en 1998 ou 1999. Les résultats de ce groupe-cible, constitué des élèves nés à l’étranger ou dont au moins un parent est né à l’étranger, sont comparés à ceux d’un groupe-contrôle d’élèves dont les deux parents sont nés au Canada. Dans un premier temps, nous dressons un profil du groupe-cible, de ses sous-groupes ainsi que du groupe-contrôle à partir de 11 variables regroupées en trois grandes catégories : les données sociodémographiques, les variables liées au processus de scolarisation et les caractéristiques des écoles fréquentées. Dans un second temps, le cheminement scolaire est analysé grâce à 5 indicateurs : le retard scolaire accumulé deux ans après l’entrée en secondaire, le taux d’obtention d’un diplôme secondaire selon divers horizons temporels, le taux cumulatif d’obtention d’un diplôme secondaire dans les réseaux public et privé, le secteur d’obtention du diplôme et l’estimation des taux de décrochage net.
Presses de l'Université de Montréal (PUM), Mar 2015
L’immigration et la diversité ethnique ont toujours été des réalités constitutives de la société ... more L’immigration et la diversité ethnique ont toujours été des réalités constitutives de la société québécoise. Depuis une quarantaine d’années, toutefois, ces questions ont pris une importance accrue, tout particulièrement en milieu scolaire, alors que des immigrants de cultures de plus en plus diversifiées se sont intégrés à la communauté francophone.
Dans un contexte où les préjugés foisonnent, cet ouvrage fait œuvre utile en s’intéressant aux données objectives de la réussite éducative des jeunes issus de l’immigration, aux politiques en la matière, ainsi qu’aux pratiques des acteurs de première ligne : élèves, enseignants, directions, parents et organismes communautaires. Les auteurs mettent l’accent sur les innovations des écoles québécoises, et surtout montréalaises, qui ont dû relever, parfois durement, mais souvent avec succès, le défi de l’intégration. Ce livre soigneusement documenté fournit un portrait précis de la situation et remet en question bien des idées reçues.
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Papers by jacques ledent
Dans un contexte où les préjugés foisonnent, cet ouvrage fait œuvre utile en s’intéressant aux données objectives de la réussite éducative des jeunes issus de l’immigration, aux politiques en la matière, ainsi qu’aux pratiques des acteurs de première ligne : élèves, enseignants, directions, parents et organismes communautaires. Les auteurs mettent l’accent sur les innovations des écoles québécoises, et surtout montréalaises, qui ont dû relever, parfois durement, mais souvent avec succès, le défi de l’intégration. Ce livre soigneusement documenté fournit un portrait précis de la situation et remet en question bien des idées reçues.