The objective of this course manual is to support the course facilitators in the understanding of... more The objective of this course manual is to support the course facilitators in the understanding of the subject matter during the delivery of the online Risk Analysis course. It complements the course content by providing the facilitators with an overview of the learning materials—presentations, case studies, and readings—and explains how the case studies and readings link to the presentations as well as how they reinforce the main points of each module. This course manual also provides the facilitators with step-by-step solutions to the knowledge checks, assignments and End-of-Course Project. It also includes guidance on how to lead and structure discussions during the course, recommended initial and follow-up questions, and guidelines for preparing discussion summaries.
This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and t... more This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure has been developed to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through: 1) Overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost and technology); 2) Preliminary research, acquisition and familiarisation with all available ELE software packages; 3) Assessment of these 30+ software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4) Loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data. Keywords: OPAL, displacement-based, DBELA, earthquake loss estimation, earthquake loss assessment, open source, HAZUS
This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and t... more This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure was created to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through:
1. overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost, and technology); 2. preliminary research, acquisition, and familiarisation for available ELE software packages; 3. assessment of these software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4. loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw = 7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment, Crowley et al., 2006), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States, FEMA, USA, 2003) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach, Lindholm et al., 2007) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic, and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data.
The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefac... more The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17000 sources of information have been utilised primarily in the last few years to present data from over 12200 damaging earthquakes historically with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless and affected) and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage (2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars)) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index) and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis and the global reinsurance field.
The socio-economic situation of countries can aggravate the physical risk of natural disaster imp... more The socio-economic situation of countries can aggravate the physical risk of natural disaster impacts, as demonstrated by the impacts of the recent 2010 earthquake on the population and building stock of Haiti. A newly formed global socio-economic indicator database has been produced to allow comparison of countries in terms of their socio-economic situation for use in this risk study. In addition, a global damaging earthquakes database (CATDAT) has been created to better understand the historical impact of earthquakes on the Asia-Pacific region. Historical flood impact databases have also been examined. Simplified hazard models have been used in conjunction with historical damage data added to human exposure. The relative country level rural and urban building inventories and historical building trends are used to define levels of vulnerability, exposure and hazard. From this, physical and community risk indices are derived for the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. It was found that the vulnerabilities in communities of developing countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia can further intensify the impact from direct damages by many times, showing the increased need for earthquake and flood risk reduction policy in many Asia-Pacific countries. The physical risk trends demonstrate the need for the reduction of physical vulnerability in Australia towards both earthquakes and floods. Trends based on HDI and other indicators within the fields of economy, poverty, demographics, governance and environment are also presented, showing the influence of these factors on ountry-level fragility and resilience
The objective of this course manual is to support the course facilitators in the understanding of... more The objective of this course manual is to support the course facilitators in the understanding of the subject matter during the delivery of the online Risk Analysis course. It complements the course content by providing the facilitators with an overview of the learning materials—presentations, case studies, and readings—and explains how the case studies and readings link to the presentations as well as how they reinforce the main points of each module. This course manual also provides the facilitators with step-by-step solutions to the knowledge checks, assignments and End-of-Course Project. It also includes guidance on how to lead and structure discussions during the course, recommended initial and follow-up questions, and guidelines for preparing discussion summaries.
This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and t... more This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure has been developed to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through: 1) Overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost and technology); 2) Preliminary research, acquisition and familiarisation with all available ELE software packages; 3) Assessment of these 30+ software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4) Loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data. Keywords: OPAL, displacement-based, DBELA, earthquake loss estimation, earthquake loss assessment, open source, HAZUS
This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and t... more This paper provides a comparison between Earthquake Loss Estimation (ELE) software packages and their application using an "Open Source Procedure for Assessment of Loss using Global Earthquake Modelling software" (OPAL). The OPAL procedure was created to provide a framework for optimisation of a Global Earthquake Modelling process through:
1. overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost, and technology); 2. preliminary research, acquisition, and familiarisation for available ELE software packages; 3. assessment of these software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and 4. loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw = 7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment, Crowley et al., 2006), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States, FEMA, USA, 2003) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach, Lindholm et al., 2007) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic, and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data.
The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefac... more The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17000 sources of information have been utilised primarily in the last few years to present data from over 12200 damaging earthquakes historically with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless and affected) and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage (2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars)) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index) and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis and the global reinsurance field.
The socio-economic situation of countries can aggravate the physical risk of natural disaster imp... more The socio-economic situation of countries can aggravate the physical risk of natural disaster impacts, as demonstrated by the impacts of the recent 2010 earthquake on the population and building stock of Haiti. A newly formed global socio-economic indicator database has been produced to allow comparison of countries in terms of their socio-economic situation for use in this risk study. In addition, a global damaging earthquakes database (CATDAT) has been created to better understand the historical impact of earthquakes on the Asia-Pacific region. Historical flood impact databases have also been examined. Simplified hazard models have been used in conjunction with historical damage data added to human exposure. The relative country level rural and urban building inventories and historical building trends are used to define levels of vulnerability, exposure and hazard. From this, physical and community risk indices are derived for the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. It was found that the vulnerabilities in communities of developing countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia can further intensify the impact from direct damages by many times, showing the increased need for earthquake and flood risk reduction policy in many Asia-Pacific countries. The physical risk trends demonstrate the need for the reduction of physical vulnerability in Australia towards both earthquakes and floods. Trends based on HDI and other indicators within the fields of economy, poverty, demographics, governance and environment are also presented, showing the influence of these factors on ountry-level fragility and resilience
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1. overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost, and technology);
2. preliminary research, acquisition, and familiarisation for available ELE software packages;
3. assessment of these software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and
4. loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw = 7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment, Crowley et al., 2006), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States, FEMA, USA, 2003) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach, Lindholm et al., 2007) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic, and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data.
Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon.
Over 17000 sources of information have been utilised primarily in the last few years to present data from over 12200 damaging earthquakes historically with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless and affected) and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid and insured).
Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage (2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars)) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index) and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons.
This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis and the global reinsurance field.
Trends based on HDI and other indicators within the fields of economy, poverty, demographics, governance and environment are also presented, showing the influence of these factors on ountry-level fragility and resilience
1. overview of current and new components of earthquake loss assessment (vulnerability, hazard, exposure, specific cost, and technology);
2. preliminary research, acquisition, and familiarisation for available ELE software packages;
3. assessment of these software packages in order to identify the advantages and disadvantages of the ELE methods used; and
4. loss analysis for a deterministic earthquake (Mw = 7.2) for the Zeytinburnu district, Istanbul, Turkey, by applying 3 software packages (2 new and 1 existing): a modified displacement-based method based on DBELA (Displacement Based Earthquake Loss Assessment, Crowley et al., 2006), a capacity spectrum based method HAZUS (HAZards United States, FEMA, USA, 2003) and the Norwegian HAZUS-based SELENA (SEismic Loss EstimatioN using a logic tree Approach, Lindholm et al., 2007) software which was adapted for use in order to compare the different processes needed for the production of damage, economic, and social loss estimates. The modified DBELA procedure was found to be more computationally expensive, yet had less variability, indicating the need for multi-tier approaches to global earthquake loss estimation. Similar systems planning and ELE software produced through the OPAL procedure can be applied to worldwide applications, given exposure data.
Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon.
Over 17000 sources of information have been utilised primarily in the last few years to present data from over 12200 damaging earthquakes historically with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless and affected) and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid and insured).
Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage (2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars)) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index) and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons.
This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis and the global reinsurance field.
Trends based on HDI and other indicators within the fields of economy, poverty, demographics, governance and environment are also presented, showing the influence of these factors on ountry-level fragility and resilience