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Open AccessEmergence of lake conditions that exceed natural temperature variability
Lake surface temperatures are projected to increase under climate change, which could trigger shifts in the future distribution of thermally sensitive aquatic species. Of particular concern for lake ecosystems...
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Open AccessSeawater oxygen isotopes as a tool for monitoring future meltwater from the Antarctic ice-sheet
To reduce uncertainties in future sea level projections, it is necessary to closely monitor the evolution of the Antarctic ice-sheet. Here, we show that seawater oxygen isotopes are an effective tool to monito...
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Open AccessMoisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate
The intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is expected to increase in response to greenhouse warming. However, how future climate change will affect TC frequencies and tracks is still under debate. Here, to furt...
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Open AccessAnthropogenic fingerprints in daily precipitation revealed by deep learning
According to twenty-first century climate-model projections, greenhouse warming will intensify rainfall variability and extremes across the globe1–4. However, verifying this prediction using observations has rema...
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Open AccessIncreased amplitude of atmospheric rivers and associated extreme precipitation in ultra-high-resolution greenhouse warming simulations
Atmospheric rivers play an integral role in the global water cycle, but predicting their future changes remains uncertain due to inter-model and inter-detection-method differences. Using ultra-high-resolution ...
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Open AccessInterannual fires as a source for subarctic summer decadal climate variability mediated by permafrost thawing
Climate model simulations run under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) use an inhomogeneous biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emission dataset, which exhibits pronounced interannual variabil...
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Open AccessFuture Indian Ocean warming patterns
Most future projections conducted with coupled general circulation models simulate a non-uniform Indian Ocean warming, with warming hotspots occurring in the Arabian Sea (AS) and the southeastern Indian Ocean ...
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Open AccessFuture sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model
Climate-forced, offline ice-sheet model simulations have been used extensively in assessing how much ice-sheets can contribute to future global sea-level rise. Typically, these model projections do not account...
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Open AccessMore frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate
El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical ...
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Open AccessEmerging unprecedented lake ice loss in climate change projections
Seasonal ice in lakes plays an important role for local communities and lake ecosystems. Here we use Large Ensemble simulations conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 2, which includes a lake ...
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Open AccessDynamics and characteristics of dry and moist heatwaves over East Asia
The increasing frequency of heatwaves over East Asia (EA) is impacting agriculture, water management, and people’s livelihood. However, the effect of humidity on high-temperature events has not yet been fully ...
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Trophic level decoupling drives future changes in phytoplankton bloom phenology
Climate change can drive shifts in the seasonality of marine productivity, with consequences for the marine food web. However, these alterations in phytoplankton bloom phenology (initiation and peak timing), a...
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Antarctic sea-ice expansion and Southern Ocean cooling linked to tropical variability
A variety of hypotheses, involving sub-ice-shelf melting, stratospheric ozone depletion and tropical teleconnections, have been proposed to explain the observed Antarctic sea-ice expansion over the period of c...
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Open AccessClimate effects on archaic human habitats and species successions
It has long been believed that climate shifts during the last 2 million years had a pivotal role in the evolution of our genus Homo1–3. However, given the limited number of representative palaeo-climate datasets ...
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Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific
Future changes in the mean climate of the tropical Pacific and characteristics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are established as being likely. Determining the time of emergence of climate change si...
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Open AccessProjected reversal of oceanic stable carbon isotope ratio depth gradient with continued anthropogenic carbon emissions
Paleoceanographic records suggest that the present-day vertical gradient in the stable carbon isotopic composition (δ13C) of dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean was reversed during the Paleocene-Eocene Therma...
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Open AccessRoles of insolation forcing and CO2 forcing on Late Pleistocene seasonal sea surface temperatures
Late Pleistocene changes in insolation, greenhouse gas concentrations, and ice sheets have different spatially and seasonally modulated climatic fingerprints. By exploring the seasonality of paleoclimate proxy...
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Future high-resolution El Niño/Southern Oscillation dynamics
The current generation of climate models does not properly resolve oceanic mesoscale processes in tropical oceans, such as tropical instability waves. The associated deficit in explicit vertical and lateral he...
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Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate
Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review,...
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Open AccessEast Asian climate response to COVID-19 lockdown measures in China
The COVID-19 pandemic caused disruptions of public life and imposed lockdown measures in 2020 resulted in considerable reductions of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It still remains unclear how the associated...