Surveillance and Forecasting

Nigeria liberalized input distribution and established the Growth Enhancement Support Scheme
(GESS) in 2011 to deliver subsidized inputs to farmers as part of its Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA). Despite the relevance of the GESS as a subsidy delivery mechanism, its achievements during the first year of implementation (2012) were below expectations. In 2015, as the first phase of the GESS is ending, has there been any significant improvement in its implementation? What improvements have occurred in redemption and participation rates? Even though the GESS is known to be making contributions in terms of ensuring direct access by farmers to subsidized inputs, the main determinants of farmers’ participation remain unknown. This study seeks to (i) examine the application of ICT innovations in the implementation of the GESS; (ii) assess its implementation performance from inception to date; and (iii) determine the factors influencing farmers’ participation in the scheme. The study is timely and has significant policy relevance judging by the desire of the government of Nigeria to understand the performance of the GESS in view of the enormous financial and material resources that have been committed to the scheme since its inception in 2012. An evaluation of the performance of the GESS will provide the government with feedback required for making adjustments in input subsidy spending, especially in the face of the recently declining oil revenues. It becomes imperative to have evidence to inform policy decisions regarding possible adjustments as the scheme passes over the first phase.

The process of targeting farmers to benefit from the input subsidy program under the GESS started with the registration of 3.9 million farmers in 2012. The number increased to 9.5 million in 2013 and 10.5 million in 2014. The number of farmers targeted for the subsidy benefit also continued to increase from 1.1 million in 2012 to 7.2 million in 2013 to 8.3 million in 2014. Under the scheme, the quantity of fertilizer distributed to farmers increased from 120,900 metric tonnes in 2012 to 466,600 metric tonnes in 2013, rising phenomenally to 748,800 metric tonnes in 2014. On fertilizer subsidy alone, the amount spent by the federal government rose from 6.65 billion naira in 2012 to 22.92 billion naira in 2013 to 41.19 billion naira in 2014. This implies that the total public spending on fertilizer subsidy (by federal and state governments) over the period increased from 13.30 billion naira in 2012 to 45.84 billion naira in 2013 to 82.38 billion naira in 2014. The number of farmers that benefited from the subsidy increased from 729,000 in 2012 to 4.12 million in 2013 and 7.22 million in 2014. The study concludes that the implementation of the GESS is on a path of continuous improvement; and that the policy and strategic reforms in input subsidy delivery have yielded many of the desired results.

The weaknesses in the financial and technical capacity of Nigeria’s agrodealers came to light when many of them could not provide the financial backing for their role in distributing inputs under the growth enhancement support scheme. They are also not adequately equipped, organized, or buoyant enough to be able to access adequate loan facilities from commercial banks. These weaknesses underscore the need to examine the various aspects of agrodealership financing and to unravel agrodealers’ participation in the loan market. It is also important to look at the extent to which agrodealers are credit rationed in order to articulate suitable financing mechanisms that will enable them to discharge their responsibilities in a sustainable fashion. This study employs primary data collected through structured questionnaires from 300 agrodealers and uses a Tobit type-II model for the analysis. The results show that interest rate, debt, value of asset, membership of trading association, and source of credit are major determinants of loan demand. Agrodealers need to organize themselves into input trading associations to enhance their creditworthiness and to unleash the inherent social capital and information advantages for improved agrodealership financing. Moreover, diversification of product coverage by agrodealers and a value-chain approach that links internal financing in the form of trade credit within the agro-input sector, with external financing from the commercial banks, are strongly recommended.

Keywords: agrodealers, loan demand, credit rationing, value-chain financing

This study focuses on intergovernmental interactions in Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA). ATA may not be able to achieve its desired objectives unless the intergovernmental and inter-agency interactions are well understood, coordi-nated, and integrated into the design and implementation of the various ATA programs, especially those that are still being developed. Unfortunately, the interactions among the three tiers of government in Nigeria is still not recognized by policy makers as a major issue in refining the design of the transformation process and reinforcing it. No tier of government acting alone in making decisions that affect all three tiers of government can create an environment that will be sufficiently enabling to ensure that farmers and other beneficiaries of ATA initiatives receive the maximum benefits obtainable. If the buy-in of a particular level of government is not properly and meaningfully secured, implementation of programs can be fraught with de-lays and avoidable costs. These may jeopardize the sustainability of ATA. This study seeks to:
1. Examine the various institutional reforms and initiatives under ATA,
2. Analyze the intergovernmental relationships in the design and implementation of ATA,
3. Assess ATA implementation performance and challenges at the federal and state levels, and
4. Proffer suggestions for improved intergovernmental collaboration and sustainability of the agricultural transfor-mation agenda in Nigeria.
The study employed secondary data obtained from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) and four study states, Kebbi, Niger, Ogun, and Ebonyi, and primary data obtained from in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with government officials at federal, state and local government levels. Conceptually, this study is guided by the theory of collaborative governance.
The study finds that intergovernmental relationships in the design and implementation of ATA are manifest more in terms of cooperation rather than in terms of collaboration. The level of cooperation depends largely on the extent to which the population in the state depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, the calculation of political benefits of participation, and the fiscal capacity of the states involved. The intensity of intergovernmental interaction varies from one state to another on account of differing levels of understanding of roles in ATA implementation and deep-seated misgivings about the non-col-lective nature of the decisions leading to the assignment of stakeholders’ roles. Nonetheless, with the extent of cooperation achieved, it has been possible to implement key components of ATA successfully due to a history of cooperation between the federal and state governments, effective leadership and coordination, institutional reforms, and the creditable roles of a technical facilitator and supply chain managers. The level of success achieved notwithstanding, there are a number of chal-lenges to the sustainable implementation of ATA programs, including weak collaborative processes, which often result in delays in service delivery. To remedy the situation, there should be more effective and meaningful use of existing institutional arrangements for collective decision making where cross-tier partnerships are required. There is need to intensify the regula-tory role of government to ensure improved quality of inputs. It is also important to depoliticize and de-bureaucratize the roll-out of ATA programs to avoid delays and to achieve better results.

The food crisis of 2008 in Nigeria was influenced by price changes in the world market and
the escalation of the price of imported fuel into Nigeria which led to sharp increases in the
prices of agricultural inputs and transportation cost. The soaring prices of food staples
benefited the producers whereas there was a worsening of malnutrition among the poor. To
cushion the effects within the short-term, the government released grains from the reserve,
ordered the import of half a million tonnes of rice to be sold at a subsidized rate and
suspended the tariff on rice imports. The policy measures adopted caused a reversal of the
trend of food price increase within six months, generated awareness about the nutritional
importance of major food staples, and led to changes in preferences in the demand for food
commodities and stimulated increased financing for commercial agriculture. The short-term
price reduction could not be sustained, however, due to food supply shortages, weakness of
the Nigerian currency, and the poor implementation of projects.

Agro-dealership financing deserves policy attention if agro-dealers are to contribute to the success of the ongoing agricultural transformation in Nigeria. Thus, this study seeks to (i) examine the issues influencing the decisions of agro-dealers to participate in the loan market, (ii) analyze the demand for business loan by the agro-dealers and (iii) articulate policy measures for sustainable financing of agro-input business enterprises in Nigeria. The study employed primary data collected through structured questionnaires from 300 agro-dealers and used a Tobit type-II model for the analysis. The results show that interest rate, debt, value of asset, membership of trading association and source of credit are major determinants of loan demand. Agro-dealers need to organize themselves into input trading associations to enhance their creditworthiness and unleash the inherent social capital and information advantages for improved agro-dealership financing. Moreover, diversification of product coverage by agro-dealers and a value-chain approach that links internal financing in the form of trade credit within the agro-input sector with external financing from the commercial banks are strongly recommended.

Small-scale farming in Nigeria is characterized by a low level of investment and unequal access to key resources. With regard to market governance, small-scale farmers in some parts of the country suffer from the oligopsonistic abuses of marketing agents who prevent them from having a voice in determining the prices of their products. Several policies including output expansion through agricultural projects, investment promotion policy, agricultural finance policy, land tenure policy, input subsidy, tax policy and agricultural insurance have been designed to shape agricultural investment in a positive direction; although during implementation, discrimination against small-scale farmers is still a common phenomenon. The policies and instruments that shape agricultural market governance include tax policies that are generally import-restrictive and support for state trading enterprises. These policies have not been fully effective due, in part, to infrastructure bottlenecks. For improved agricultural investment and market governance there is a need to entrench women's access and entitlement to land in the ongoing land reform, promote greater access by women to formal credit facilities, encourage private sector involvement in delivering extension services and link small-scale farmers to agribusiness firms through appropriate contract farming arrangements.

Diversification of Nigerian agriculture is a sine qua non for the transformation of the sector in particular and revival of the Nigerian economy in general. Such diversification implies that policy makers must desist from concentration of efforts on boosting agricultural production while at the same time downplaying investment in processing and marketing. This approach has perpetuated poverty among the small-scale farmers, stymied growth and investment in the sector and discouraged business initiatives across agricultural commodity value chains. This book advocates a new paradigm of boosting agricultural production, expanding investment in processing and guaranteeing farmers’ access to market as an integrated strategy of agro-industrialization; with a view to enhancing pro-poor growth and achieve sustainable development. The book provides evidence of achieving this desire through the instrumentality of contract farming models. It demonstrates that given strong institutional linkages between agribusiness firms and farmers with appropriate governance mechanisms, agriculture will be the attraction of investors and bedrock of industrialization and sustainable development in Nigeria.

Although emphasis on research and development is increasing in Africa and overall research capabilities may be increasing, there is no uniformity in the emerging trend. Whereas some countries have very limited research capacity and severe infrastructure deficit, the development of research centres and skilled manpower is being pursued with vigour in others. Invariably tremendous research gap remains to be filled across the continent in various spheres of life. This paper underpins the critical elements in the reconceptualization of the relationship between research and public policy in Africa including the provision of a rallying point for clear identification of research needs, specification of standards and provision of opportunities to re-direct research activities along the path of growth and development envisaged in the African development agenda. How can we forge a link between research and policy right from the stage of problem identification, investigation and application of research findings? Specifically, it seeks to examine conceptual and operational issues relating to the interactions between research and policy in Africa. The paper provides  evidence of disconnect between research and policy in Africa, argues for a rethinking of the relationships based on the consideration of major conceptual issues circumscribing the research-policy nexus, and proffer measures for strengthening research-policy interactions in support of Africa’s development.

Executive summary

This study undertakes an assessment of the food and nutrition security (FNS) needs in Nigeria, its policies and strategies to address those needs, and the resources available to implement thepolicies. The assessment is based largely on data from the Brookings Institution’s Ending Rural Hunger (ERH) project with additional data from a survey of national ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs), bilateral and multilateral donors, non-profit/non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and think tanks in Nigeria. The needs assessment employs a framework that characterizes the situation of malnutrition, access to food, agricultural productivity, and vulnerability in Nigeria. The policy assessment is presented in two broad categories: agricultural economic policy and political prioritization. The former includes measurements of the rural investment climate; pricing and trade distortions that affect national agricultural markets; and the level of expertise in science, technology, and extension services. The latter includes measurements of the government’s prioritization of agriculture, nutrition, and rural social assistance, as well as the enabling environment for women farmers. To assess resource flows, the report examines indicators that measure investment from the public and private sectors.

The assessment follows a comparative analytical approach in which the scorecards for needs, policies, and resources are compared with the situation in Africa and other parts of the world. The study reveals that Nigeria's overall needs are less severe than the average African country, although Nigeria is still ranked 81 out of 116 developing countries globally in the ERH database.
In terms of access to food, Nigeria performs better than the regional average on indicators such undernourishment and average dietary energy supply adequacy whereas its performance on poverty indicators is worse. Malnutrition, especially anemia in children, is severe in Nigeria and
higher than the regional average. Nigeria’s agricultural productivity gap is lower than the regional average although technology and infrastructure gaps are still evident. The scores relating to environmental shocks suggest that Nigeria’s vulnerability is somewhat higher than the regional average. Even though some of the individual vulnerability indicators reveal needs that are much higher or lower than the regional average, the aggregate vulnerability score is substantially lower than the regional average. Food shortages are driven mainly by production and consumption shocks, which vary widely from rural to urban areas. The policy environment is generally weak as evidenced by the overall policy score, which falls below the regional average with the country ranking 97 out of 116 developing countries. All indicators capturing resource flows to FNS are very low and fall below the regional average, indicating that FNS intervention programs have been grossly underfunded, thus partly accounting for the slow progress in achieving desired results.

The country is intensifying efforts to end hunger by 2030 if not earlier. Success will depend on prompt actions by the government to prepare investment plans for FNS intervention programs; improve the rural investment climate through provision of modern infrastructure; expand the operations of the women empowerment fund; reconfigure agricultural subsidies for improved FNS and rural investment; increase local ownership of intervention projects; establish a budget line for nutrition in the relevant MDAs; and target assistance to the most vulnerable groups (such as women of childbearing age (15–49 years), children 6-59 months, school-age children, and internally displaced people, especially in the northeast of the country). At the same time, local NGOs and international agencies must forge effective partnerships with the government and strengthen executive capacity to deliver the outcomes of food security and nutrition interventions.