The theoretical relationships between resilience and vulnerability have long been debated, but li... more The theoretical relationships between resilience and vulnerability have long been debated, but limited research has been done to test their relationships from an empirical perspective. This study presents an important case to demonstrate the empirical verification of the relationships. After reviewing relevant theories, we propose revisions of two widely adopted disaster risk and vulnerability formulas and apply them in a Taiwanese case of Typhoon Morakot. The data incorporate four natural hazard data sets, a Taiwan Social Change Survey of nonvictims as the reference group, and a longitudinal data set of Social Impact and Recovery Survey for Typhoon Morakot victims (2010–2012). With those data, two sets of models were constructed based on the two revised formulas. The first set of models estimates a disaster risk, defined as the probability and expected value of victimization determined by the typhoon hazard, household’s exposure, and contextual vulnerability composed of social class, ethnicity, education, and family status. The second set of models estimates an affected household’s outcome vulnerability, defined as the continuous trajectory of household living condition consisted of exposure, contextual vulnerability, and resilience. In the second set, outcome vulnerability is measured through household income pre- and post-disaster to depict the impact and dynamism; resilience is measured through social capital variables. Logit, ordinal linear regression (OLS), and fixed-effect regression were applied to statistically estimate the models. The results highlight that contextual vulnerability deteriorates the disaster risk of typhoon. Resilience has an impact on outcome vulnerability, but its effect is uncertain, likely to be restricted in the disaster recovery.
在聯合國國際減災辦公室及政府間氣候變遷小組所定義的風險分析架構上，本研究將地震風險視為地震危害度(hazard)、人口-建物暴露性(exposure)與脆弱性(vulnerability)的總體... more 在聯合國國際減災辦公室及政府間氣候變遷小組所定義的風險分析架構上，本研究將地震風險視為地震危害度(hazard)、人口-建物暴露性(exposure)與脆弱性(vulnerability)的總體函數。以集集地震數據作為分析案例，我們整合了人口、房屋稅、所得稅、強地動與集集地震各村里死亡人數的數據，並透過建立四個嵌套(nested)統計模型，以Poisson迴歸模型進行估計，分別檢測代表危害度、暴露性與脆弱性之不同變量及其交互項變量，對地震死亡人數的影響。研究結果顯示，模型中所有變量對於地震死亡人數都具有統計上顯著的效應，其中地震的災害變量與人口建物暴露變量的效果最為顯著，震動強度、斷層經過與集合式住宅倒塌三者的交互作用，是造成集集地震死亡的首要因素。和這些變量相較下，社會脆弱性的變量(性別比、幼年人口、家戶所得、所得標準差)雖然較弱，但有顯著的邊際效用，會擴大地震死亡人數。在學術價值上，本研究突顯跨領域理論與數據整合，對於分析與理解地震災難風險的重要性。在社會實務上，本研究建議應強化都市規劃、區域計畫、建築法規與社會扶助等機制，以降低對地震災害的暴險率與社會脆弱性。
透過2013年中央研究院社會學研究所與香港中文大學亞太研究中心共同合作設計並且同步進行的「中國效應」民意調查，本文發現香港民眾的身分認同與本土出生或中國移民經驗有強烈的關聯，塑造出類似台灣省籍或... more 透過2013年中央研究院社會學研究所與香港中文大學亞太研究中心共同合作設計並且同步進行的「中國效應」民意調查，本文發現香港民眾的身分認同與本土出生或中國移民經驗有強烈的關聯，塑造出類似台灣省籍或族群政治對政府評價的影響。然而，香港特殊的階級與族群交互作用，使其各社會階級民眾主觀認定的經濟利益與台灣大不相同。研究發現台灣的非技術工人與所得偏低者比較反對統一、對兩岸經濟整合所造成的貧富差距等問題較為敏感，另一方面，所得越高者認為自己從兩岸經貿中獲益，資本家對馬英九政府親中立場的信心與對民主的評價也較高。反之，香港的非技術工人底層較多來自中國的新移民，認為自己的家庭經濟從中國獲益，反而是高所得者對香港前途感到相對悲觀。上述的統計結果雖然只能呈現橫斷面社會、經濟與政治的中國效應，卻仍然可以促進我們對造成現狀之歷史發展的理解。如前所述，台灣民眾的本土認同從1990年代初期多數是中國人或雙重認同，2008年後已經多數認同是台灣人；香港也在北京干預政治的危機下，出現香港認同大幅上升的現象，但若族群政治與身分認同命題為真，則本土認同提升將會衝擊港台民眾對親中政府的評價。
Does higher educational expansion in Taiwan facilitate social mobility or form the horizontal str... more Does higher educational expansion in Taiwan facilitate social mobility or form the horizontal stratification in higher education to maintain social inequality? Using Taiwan Social Change Survey, this paper examines the effects of higher educational expansion on the distribution of educational opportunities among students with different family background. The findings show that higher educational expansion produces the horizontal stratification in higher education. Advantaged students are more likely to attend selective and prestigious public colleges and further enter graduate schools because of the higher educational expansion, while lower-class students tend to enter higher-tuition and lower-ranking private colleges. These results reveal that both MMI and EMI hypotheses work during the educational expansion period. Finally, due to the differences in tuition and wage gap in the labor market between public and private college students, the educational expansion policy in Taiwan has not mitigated the given class inequality, and even obscurely maintained the inequality.
In this article I use Taiwan as an example to explore the relationship between open trade and soc... more In this article I use Taiwan as an example to explore the relationship between open trade and social class. According to a pooled data from national surveys of 2011-14, it is found that the cross-strait trade has deepened class inequality and reshaped class politics in Taiwan. There’s the working class and the self-employed who have less chance to work in China and benefit from the trade; in contrast, there’s also the middle classes and capitalists who have more chance working in China and benefit from the trade. The working class and the self-employed are worried that expanding cross-strait trade would lead to income inequality. In contrast, the capitalists and managers believe that the expanding trade with China economically benefits them. The different attitudes on cross-strait trade, for and against, are connected to the voting behavior—the supporters of open trade, mostly capitalists and managers, prefer the pan-blue camp, while the protectionists, mostly workers and the self-employed, prefer the pan-green camp. The result explains the recent development of Sunflower Movement and class voting in Taiwan.
This article examines how global value chains (GVCs) have shaped a world factory regime, based on... more This article examines how global value chains (GVCs) have shaped a world factory regime, based on the case study of the Foxconn group in Shenzhen, China. We identify three features that characterize a world factory regime: the GVCs’ impacts, the fragmented structure of corporate governance, and workplace despotism, and propose a concept of “global fragmented despotism” to explain changing labor conditions, workers’ suicides and resistance uncovered in Foxconn since 2010.
The transformation of Taiwan society belies its image as a model of development. Long viewed as ... more The transformation of Taiwan society belies its image as a model of development. Long viewed as the engine of the country’s growth, Taiwan’s SMEs are fading away. Big businessmen and the KMT technocrats, whose strengths depended on the country’s strong state, are now the advocates of free trade and openness to China. Young Taiwanese face unemployment, downward mobility, job insecurity, stagnant wages, and higher tax and social insurance rates. In a book that is a surprising sociological bestseller, I argue that these social changes will bring us to a “generation of collapse.” In contrast to our long-ago economic miracle, some young scholars now call for a paradigm shift in Taiwanese sociology, focusing on the social collapse that may lie in our future.
在過去三十年的兩岸關係中，台灣對中國內部經濟、文化與政治的影響為何？本文從硬實力與軟實力的區分來評估台灣效應對中國的影響。首先，台灣對中國的硬實力衰退：除了兩岸軍事力量失衡之外，由於中國經濟的高... more 在過去三十年的兩岸關係中，台灣對中國內部經濟、文化與政治的影響為何？本文從硬實力與軟實力的區分來評估台灣效應對中國的影響。首先，台灣對中國的硬實力衰退：除了兩岸軍事力量失衡之外，由於中國經濟的高速發展，台灣在中國的經濟影響力，從1990年代初期的逐漸成長，到2000年代中期以後成長趨緩，甚至開始緩慢衰退，反映在貿易、投資、人口流動等各方面，台灣人與中國人之間的實際接觸有限、甚至造成負面印象。其次，與硬實力衰退相反，台灣對中國有不成比例的軟實力：由於中國始終對民眾宣稱台灣的主權，使得中國民眾建構出一個「想像中的台灣」，台灣文化與政治活動對中國產生超過硬實力的影響力，例如，台灣的流行音樂持續占有中國一半的市場，並未衰退；中國政府、媒體或政治異議人士也相對高度關注台灣的民主。然而，由於中國社會將台灣視為想像中的共同體，反之對台灣民眾而言卻不然，這使台灣一方影響中國社會的軟實力受到兩岸關係的嚴格限制。
The generational politics studies in have Taiwan seriously suffered from “age-period-cohort (APC)... more The generational politics studies in have Taiwan seriously suffered from “age-period-cohort (APC) problems,” that is, mixed information, unstandardized measurement, and multi-collinearity problems, which lead to contradictory results. In this article, a Cross-Classified Random Effects Model (CCREM) is applied to mitigate the APC problems. It investigates the APC differences of the preferences on national identities and democratic values using a pooled dataset of national social surveys between 1995 and 2010. According to the CCREM results, the “age effect” shows that the younger age-groups have stronger Taiwanese identity and more politically liberal attitudes, but the statistical effect is not very significant. On the other hand, the “period effect” shows that after the democratic transition, the whole population has stronger Taiwanese identity and more politically liberal attitudes, and the statistical effect is significant and robust. Finally, the “cohort effect” is more important and complicated than the “age effect”.
The paper reviews recent findings of class analysis in Taiwan. The studies find that income inequ... more The paper reviews recent findings of class analysis in Taiwan. The studies find that income inequality among social classes has continuously increased, and point out two sources of the inequality: (1) industrial upgrading led to increasing wage inequality between skilled workers and unskilled workers; (2) the cross-strait open trade policy under the globalization context led to increasing income inequality between the employers plus some top managers who went to China for investment, and the local employees plus self-employed in Taiwan. The increasing class inequality also results in declining class mobility, shrinking subjective social status, and rising political discontent among middle- and lower- class people. The increasing class inequality may partially explain the emergence of the 2014 Sunflower movement in Taiwan.
本文回顧近二十年來臺灣階級不平等與階級流動的趨勢。研究顯示造成臺灣各階級所得不平等惡化的因素有二, 其一是產業升級造成技術工人與非技術工人薪資所得不平等上升; 其二是全球化下兩岸經貿擴張, 獲益者集中在少數資方與技術管理高層, 對財產所有者減稅更導致所得分配惡化。階級不平等惡化造成階級流動的停滯, 包括創業機會減少與教育階級複製。因此,多項指標顯示臺灣民眾主觀上開始覺得自己的階級地位向下流動、貧富差距越來越嚴重。據此, 反服貿運動確實反映部分民眾對全球化造成階級不平等惡化的不滿。
While disaster studies researchers usually view risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulne... more While disaster studies researchers usually view risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, few studies have systematically examined the relationships among the various physical and socioeconomic determinants underlying disasters, and fewer have 5 done so through seismic risk analysis. In the context of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, this study constructs five hypothetical models to test dierent determinants that aect disaster fatality at the village level, namely seismic hazard intensity, population, building fragility, demographics and socioeconomics. The Poisson Regression Model is used to estimate the impact of natural hazards and social factors on 10 fatality. Results indicate that although all of the determinants have an impact on the specific dimension of seismic fatality, some indicators of social inequality, such as gender ratio, dependency ratio, income and its SD, are the driving determinants deteriorating vulnerability to seismic risk. These findings have strong social implications for policy interventions to mitigate such disasters. This study presents an interdisciplinary 15 investigation into social and physical determinants in seismic risk.
From the perspective of historical institutionalism, I argue that state capacity, democracy, and ... more From the perspective of historical institutionalism, I argue that state capacity, democracy, and their interaction shape the distribution of human vulnerability in natural disasters. The ruling elite, irrespective of whether it is democratic, has the incentive to develop state capacity to prevent damage caused by natural disasters, which is considered a threat to its rule and revenue. To win elections in a democracy, the elite may increase public spending for disaster mitigation in favor of voters' demands. Democracy also empowers civil society and stimulates social spending, which benefits vulnerable citizens. Thus, a strong state capacity effectively reduces human vulnerability, especially in a democracy. I used panel data from 150 countries between 1995 and 2009 to demonstrate the relationship among state capacity, democracy, and the impact of disasters. After controlling for the density and magnitude continuity of natural-disaster hazards, the empirical results I obtained from the multilevel models indicate that democracy reduces the disaster mortality rate, and a strong state capacity mitigates the effect of a disaster on a population, especially in a democracy. I also found that state capacity and democracy are more effective in preventing human losses caused by predictable disasters such as floods and storms, rather than earthquakes.
Do people prefer different political and economic policies based on their generational gap in a t... more Do people prefer different political and economic policies based on their generational gap in a transitional society? The article reviewed the literatures of political socialization theories based on age groups, such as the aspects of life-course politics, generational politics, and gerontocracy. By linking the generational political theories with Taiwan’s contexts, I investigate the generational differences of the preferences on national identities, political liberty and economic equalitarianism in the national social surveys between 1995 and 2010. The CCREM statistical results show that the younger generation has stronger Taiwanese identity, more politically liberal, and less equalitarian attitudes during and after the democratic transition. The results also reveal that the generational politics matter in shaping the party preference of Taiwanese voters in the last two decades.
The article examines the relationship among state building, political
transition and “demographi... more The article examines the relationship among state building, political
transition and “demographic governance”, which refers to the identification, categorization and management of a population/household registration system. By comparing the similarity and differences of the development of household registration system in Taiwan and China after early twentieth century, it is illustrated that the divergence of demographic governance resulted from the early stage of modern state building. The Japanese colonial government in Taiwan from 1895 and the communist regime from 1949 established and sustained household registration systems by the police departments. Both the states in Taiwan and China developed unequal categorized system for the elites’ political and economic purposes. From the 1980s, however, the democratic transition in Taiwan changed the household registration system from an unequal categorized and policed system to a registration system with more individualized characteristics and more universalized citizenship. In contrast, without democratic transition, the Chinese household registration system still is run by the public security department with the “agricultural” and “non-agricultural” divide. The historical comparative study shows the dynamics and decline of management and categorization of demographic governance in modern Chinese societies.
In this article we describe some special characteristics of the world’s greatest factory—in terms... more In this article we describe some special characteristics of the world’s greatest factory—in terms of the number of employees—belonging to the Taiwanese enterprise, Foxconn group in Shenzhen, China. We argue that the factory regime has been shaped by three key elements: (1) internal globalization: it refers to the global brand names, especially the Apple group’s authority and interventions of the production process in the factory; (2) organizational fragmentation: the fragmented structure of corporate governance, that is, the vertical fraction of business groups (BGs) and the horizontal segmentation of employees belonging to different nationalities. The fragmentation led to the strong autonomy of BGs and incomplete information between BGs; and, (3) workplace despotism: the surplus of Chinese low-skilled rural workers enforced the arbitrary managerial power on the shop floor. According to the three elements, we name the factory regime as a “global fragmented despotism.” The organizational structure of world factory may be helpful for explaining Foxconn’s poor labor conditions and workers’ suicides happened in 2010.
受科學、技術與社會研究 (Science, Technology and Society, 簡稱STS) 的啟發，本文以台灣的登山步道為例，來研究國家與公民社會關係，以及專業技術社群與使用社群之... more 受科學、技術與社會研究 (Science, Technology and Society, 簡稱STS) 的啟發，本文以台灣的登山步道為例，來研究國家與公民社會關係，以及專業技術社群與使用社群之間的關係，如何影響步道技術模式變遷的過程。與台灣其他的公共投資類似，1990年代以前觀光或登山步道工程通常是由國家官僚體制發包給營造商的標案，其技術準則是被景觀規劃或園林設計專業者所決定。然而，自2002年起，台灣登山社團與環保團體反對登山步道工程的抗議此起彼落，挑戰政府由上而下制訂步道施工標準與決定工程發包的舊有步道技術模式，並提出公民參與步道規劃的訴求。在社會運動的壓力下，國家步道工程主管單位林務局及各國家公園管理處，逐漸將登山社團的抗爭者、古道研究者以及步道志工模式的推動者納入步道規劃決策與維護體系中，嘗試學習「生態工法」減少步道土木工程，並引進民間社團參與、用人力進行步道日常維護的新技術模式。結果，這個公民社會改變登山步道施工技術的故事，對台灣其他希望參與公共工程規劃與技術轉型的社會運動提供了寶貴的經驗。
The article examines the relationship between Internet use and social networks as well as social ... more The article examines the relationship between Internet use and social networks as well as social inequality in Taiwan. I divide the literature into three approaches: Cyber-utopian, Cyber-dystopian (control theory), and skeptical (social-shaping aspect) and illustrate their different hypotheses regarding social inequality, social networks, political behavior, and collective action. The Cyber-utopian approach claims that the diffusion of Internet use reduces information cost, equalizes market opportunity, and
increases social capital, but the Cyber-dystopian approach claims that Internet use empowered ordinary political and economic elites. Both approaches focus on the social impacts of Internet use and imply technological determinism, while the skeptical approach focuses on the social inequality of Internet use, especially on the digital divide. According to a national survey (TSCS) conducted in Taiwan during the 2000-2010 period, I investigate hypotheses derived from the three approaches. The empirical findings confirm that inequalities still created digital divides of Internet use, but the effect of average time online per day is insignificant or ambiguous on the size of social network, income distribution, voting behavior, and participation in social movements. In sum, most empirical results support the skeptical approach rather than the two forms of technological determinism.
In this article we investigate the impacts of cross-strait trade on income inequality and the pol... more In this article we investigate the impacts of cross-strait trade on income inequality and the political behavior of Taiwanese voters. According to time-series data of macroeconomics, we find strong associations among the trade dependence on China and poverty rate in Taiwan. On the individual level, the class analysis of national surveys in 2010-12 shows that the winner of cross-strait trade is the capitalist and new middle classes. The deterioration of class inequality affected the political attitude and voting behavior of the members of different classes. The capitalists and new middle classes subjectively believed that the open trade benefited their family economy. In contrast, the workers and self-employed believed that the expending trade with China damaged their family economy and increased the gap between the rich and the poor. The different attitudes of cross-strait trade connected with the voting behavior—the supporters of trade, mostly capitalists and new middle classes, preferred to sustain the pan-blue camp; while the opposition of trade, mostly the working class and self-employed, preferred to support the pan-green camp.
The theoretical relationships between resilience and vulnerability have long been debated, but li... more The theoretical relationships between resilience and vulnerability have long been debated, but limited research has been done to test their relationships from an empirical perspective. This study presents an important case to demonstrate the empirical verification of the relationships. After reviewing relevant theories, we propose revisions of two widely adopted disaster risk and vulnerability formulas and apply them in a Taiwanese case of Typhoon Morakot. The data incorporate four natural hazard data sets, a Taiwan Social Change Survey of nonvictims as the reference group, and a longitudinal data set of Social Impact and Recovery Survey for Typhoon Morakot victims (2010–2012). With those data, two sets of models were constructed based on the two revised formulas. The first set of models estimates a disaster risk, defined as the probability and expected value of victimization determined by the typhoon hazard, household’s exposure, and contextual vulnerability composed of social class, ethnicity, education, and family status. The second set of models estimates an affected household’s outcome vulnerability, defined as the continuous trajectory of household living condition consisted of exposure, contextual vulnerability, and resilience. In the second set, outcome vulnerability is measured through household income pre- and post-disaster to depict the impact and dynamism; resilience is measured through social capital variables. Logit, ordinal linear regression (OLS), and fixed-effect regression were applied to statistically estimate the models. The results highlight that contextual vulnerability deteriorates the disaster risk of typhoon. Resilience has an impact on outcome vulnerability, but its effect is uncertain, likely to be restricted in the disaster recovery.
在聯合國國際減災辦公室及政府間氣候變遷小組所定義的風險分析架構上，本研究將地震風險視為地震危害度(hazard)、人口-建物暴露性(exposure)與脆弱性(vulnerability)的總體... more 在聯合國國際減災辦公室及政府間氣候變遷小組所定義的風險分析架構上，本研究將地震風險視為地震危害度(hazard)、人口-建物暴露性(exposure)與脆弱性(vulnerability)的總體函數。以集集地震數據作為分析案例，我們整合了人口、房屋稅、所得稅、強地動與集集地震各村里死亡人數的數據，並透過建立四個嵌套(nested)統計模型，以Poisson迴歸模型進行估計，分別檢測代表危害度、暴露性與脆弱性之不同變量及其交互項變量，對地震死亡人數的影響。研究結果顯示，模型中所有變量對於地震死亡人數都具有統計上顯著的效應，其中地震的災害變量與人口建物暴露變量的效果最為顯著，震動強度、斷層經過與集合式住宅倒塌三者的交互作用，是造成集集地震死亡的首要因素。和這些變量相較下，社會脆弱性的變量(性別比、幼年人口、家戶所得、所得標準差)雖然較弱，但有顯著的邊際效用，會擴大地震死亡人數。在學術價值上，本研究突顯跨領域理論與數據整合，對於分析與理解地震災難風險的重要性。在社會實務上，本研究建議應強化都市規劃、區域計畫、建築法規與社會扶助等機制，以降低對地震災害的暴險率與社會脆弱性。
透過2013年中央研究院社會學研究所與香港中文大學亞太研究中心共同合作設計並且同步進行的「中國效應」民意調查，本文發現香港民眾的身分認同與本土出生或中國移民經驗有強烈的關聯，塑造出類似台灣省籍或... more 透過2013年中央研究院社會學研究所與香港中文大學亞太研究中心共同合作設計並且同步進行的「中國效應」民意調查，本文發現香港民眾的身分認同與本土出生或中國移民經驗有強烈的關聯，塑造出類似台灣省籍或族群政治對政府評價的影響。然而，香港特殊的階級與族群交互作用，使其各社會階級民眾主觀認定的經濟利益與台灣大不相同。研究發現台灣的非技術工人與所得偏低者比較反對統一、對兩岸經濟整合所造成的貧富差距等問題較為敏感，另一方面，所得越高者認為自己從兩岸經貿中獲益，資本家對馬英九政府親中立場的信心與對民主的評價也較高。反之，香港的非技術工人底層較多來自中國的新移民，認為自己的家庭經濟從中國獲益，反而是高所得者對香港前途感到相對悲觀。上述的統計結果雖然只能呈現橫斷面社會、經濟與政治的中國效應，卻仍然可以促進我們對造成現狀之歷史發展的理解。如前所述，台灣民眾的本土認同從1990年代初期多數是中國人或雙重認同，2008年後已經多數認同是台灣人；香港也在北京干預政治的危機下，出現香港認同大幅上升的現象，但若族群政治與身分認同命題為真，則本土認同提升將會衝擊港台民眾對親中政府的評價。
Does higher educational expansion in Taiwan facilitate social mobility or form the horizontal str... more Does higher educational expansion in Taiwan facilitate social mobility or form the horizontal stratification in higher education to maintain social inequality? Using Taiwan Social Change Survey, this paper examines the effects of higher educational expansion on the distribution of educational opportunities among students with different family background. The findings show that higher educational expansion produces the horizontal stratification in higher education. Advantaged students are more likely to attend selective and prestigious public colleges and further enter graduate schools because of the higher educational expansion, while lower-class students tend to enter higher-tuition and lower-ranking private colleges. These results reveal that both MMI and EMI hypotheses work during the educational expansion period. Finally, due to the differences in tuition and wage gap in the labor market between public and private college students, the educational expansion policy in Taiwan has not mitigated the given class inequality, and even obscurely maintained the inequality.
In this article I use Taiwan as an example to explore the relationship between open trade and soc... more In this article I use Taiwan as an example to explore the relationship between open trade and social class. According to a pooled data from national surveys of 2011-14, it is found that the cross-strait trade has deepened class inequality and reshaped class politics in Taiwan. There’s the working class and the self-employed who have less chance to work in China and benefit from the trade; in contrast, there’s also the middle classes and capitalists who have more chance working in China and benefit from the trade. The working class and the self-employed are worried that expanding cross-strait trade would lead to income inequality. In contrast, the capitalists and managers believe that the expanding trade with China economically benefits them. The different attitudes on cross-strait trade, for and against, are connected to the voting behavior—the supporters of open trade, mostly capitalists and managers, prefer the pan-blue camp, while the protectionists, mostly workers and the self-employed, prefer the pan-green camp. The result explains the recent development of Sunflower Movement and class voting in Taiwan.
This article examines how global value chains (GVCs) have shaped a world factory regime, based on... more This article examines how global value chains (GVCs) have shaped a world factory regime, based on the case study of the Foxconn group in Shenzhen, China. We identify three features that characterize a world factory regime: the GVCs’ impacts, the fragmented structure of corporate governance, and workplace despotism, and propose a concept of “global fragmented despotism” to explain changing labor conditions, workers’ suicides and resistance uncovered in Foxconn since 2010.
The transformation of Taiwan society belies its image as a model of development. Long viewed as ... more The transformation of Taiwan society belies its image as a model of development. Long viewed as the engine of the country’s growth, Taiwan’s SMEs are fading away. Big businessmen and the KMT technocrats, whose strengths depended on the country’s strong state, are now the advocates of free trade and openness to China. Young Taiwanese face unemployment, downward mobility, job insecurity, stagnant wages, and higher tax and social insurance rates. In a book that is a surprising sociological bestseller, I argue that these social changes will bring us to a “generation of collapse.” In contrast to our long-ago economic miracle, some young scholars now call for a paradigm shift in Taiwanese sociology, focusing on the social collapse that may lie in our future.
在過去三十年的兩岸關係中，台灣對中國內部經濟、文化與政治的影響為何？本文從硬實力與軟實力的區分來評估台灣效應對中國的影響。首先，台灣對中國的硬實力衰退：除了兩岸軍事力量失衡之外，由於中國經濟的高... more 在過去三十年的兩岸關係中，台灣對中國內部經濟、文化與政治的影響為何？本文從硬實力與軟實力的區分來評估台灣效應對中國的影響。首先，台灣對中國的硬實力衰退：除了兩岸軍事力量失衡之外，由於中國經濟的高速發展，台灣在中國的經濟影響力，從1990年代初期的逐漸成長，到2000年代中期以後成長趨緩，甚至開始緩慢衰退，反映在貿易、投資、人口流動等各方面，台灣人與中國人之間的實際接觸有限、甚至造成負面印象。其次，與硬實力衰退相反，台灣對中國有不成比例的軟實力：由於中國始終對民眾宣稱台灣的主權，使得中國民眾建構出一個「想像中的台灣」，台灣文化與政治活動對中國產生超過硬實力的影響力，例如，台灣的流行音樂持續占有中國一半的市場，並未衰退；中國政府、媒體或政治異議人士也相對高度關注台灣的民主。然而，由於中國社會將台灣視為想像中的共同體，反之對台灣民眾而言卻不然，這使台灣一方影響中國社會的軟實力受到兩岸關係的嚴格限制。
The generational politics studies in have Taiwan seriously suffered from “age-period-cohort (APC)... more The generational politics studies in have Taiwan seriously suffered from “age-period-cohort (APC) problems,” that is, mixed information, unstandardized measurement, and multi-collinearity problems, which lead to contradictory results. In this article, a Cross-Classified Random Effects Model (CCREM) is applied to mitigate the APC problems. It investigates the APC differences of the preferences on national identities and democratic values using a pooled dataset of national social surveys between 1995 and 2010. According to the CCREM results, the “age effect” shows that the younger age-groups have stronger Taiwanese identity and more politically liberal attitudes, but the statistical effect is not very significant. On the other hand, the “period effect” shows that after the democratic transition, the whole population has stronger Taiwanese identity and more politically liberal attitudes, and the statistical effect is significant and robust. Finally, the “cohort effect” is more important and complicated than the “age effect”.
The paper reviews recent findings of class analysis in Taiwan. The studies find that income inequ... more The paper reviews recent findings of class analysis in Taiwan. The studies find that income inequality among social classes has continuously increased, and point out two sources of the inequality: (1) industrial upgrading led to increasing wage inequality between skilled workers and unskilled workers; (2) the cross-strait open trade policy under the globalization context led to increasing income inequality between the employers plus some top managers who went to China for investment, and the local employees plus self-employed in Taiwan. The increasing class inequality also results in declining class mobility, shrinking subjective social status, and rising political discontent among middle- and lower- class people. The increasing class inequality may partially explain the emergence of the 2014 Sunflower movement in Taiwan.
本文回顧近二十年來臺灣階級不平等與階級流動的趨勢。研究顯示造成臺灣各階級所得不平等惡化的因素有二, 其一是產業升級造成技術工人與非技術工人薪資所得不平等上升; 其二是全球化下兩岸經貿擴張, 獲益者集中在少數資方與技術管理高層, 對財產所有者減稅更導致所得分配惡化。階級不平等惡化造成階級流動的停滯, 包括創業機會減少與教育階級複製。因此,多項指標顯示臺灣民眾主觀上開始覺得自己的階級地位向下流動、貧富差距越來越嚴重。據此, 反服貿運動確實反映部分民眾對全球化造成階級不平等惡化的不滿。
While disaster studies researchers usually view risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulne... more While disaster studies researchers usually view risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, few studies have systematically examined the relationships among the various physical and socioeconomic determinants underlying disasters, and fewer have 5 done so through seismic risk analysis. In the context of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, this study constructs five hypothetical models to test dierent determinants that aect disaster fatality at the village level, namely seismic hazard intensity, population, building fragility, demographics and socioeconomics. The Poisson Regression Model is used to estimate the impact of natural hazards and social factors on 10 fatality. Results indicate that although all of the determinants have an impact on the specific dimension of seismic fatality, some indicators of social inequality, such as gender ratio, dependency ratio, income and its SD, are the driving determinants deteriorating vulnerability to seismic risk. These findings have strong social implications for policy interventions to mitigate such disasters. This study presents an interdisciplinary 15 investigation into social and physical determinants in seismic risk.
From the perspective of historical institutionalism, I argue that state capacity, democracy, and ... more From the perspective of historical institutionalism, I argue that state capacity, democracy, and their interaction shape the distribution of human vulnerability in natural disasters. The ruling elite, irrespective of whether it is democratic, has the incentive to develop state capacity to prevent damage caused by natural disasters, which is considered a threat to its rule and revenue. To win elections in a democracy, the elite may increase public spending for disaster mitigation in favor of voters' demands. Democracy also empowers civil society and stimulates social spending, which benefits vulnerable citizens. Thus, a strong state capacity effectively reduces human vulnerability, especially in a democracy. I used panel data from 150 countries between 1995 and 2009 to demonstrate the relationship among state capacity, democracy, and the impact of disasters. After controlling for the density and magnitude continuity of natural-disaster hazards, the empirical results I obtained from the multilevel models indicate that democracy reduces the disaster mortality rate, and a strong state capacity mitigates the effect of a disaster on a population, especially in a democracy. I also found that state capacity and democracy are more effective in preventing human losses caused by predictable disasters such as floods and storms, rather than earthquakes.
Do people prefer different political and economic policies based on their generational gap in a t... more Do people prefer different political and economic policies based on their generational gap in a transitional society? The article reviewed the literatures of political socialization theories based on age groups, such as the aspects of life-course politics, generational politics, and gerontocracy. By linking the generational political theories with Taiwan’s contexts, I investigate the generational differences of the preferences on national identities, political liberty and economic equalitarianism in the national social surveys between 1995 and 2010. The CCREM statistical results show that the younger generation has stronger Taiwanese identity, more politically liberal, and less equalitarian attitudes during and after the democratic transition. The results also reveal that the generational politics matter in shaping the party preference of Taiwanese voters in the last two decades.
The article examines the relationship among state building, political
transition and “demographi... more The article examines the relationship among state building, political
transition and “demographic governance”, which refers to the identification, categorization and management of a population/household registration system. By comparing the similarity and differences of the development of household registration system in Taiwan and China after early twentieth century, it is illustrated that the divergence of demographic governance resulted from the early stage of modern state building. The Japanese colonial government in Taiwan from 1895 and the communist regime from 1949 established and sustained household registration systems by the police departments. Both the states in Taiwan and China developed unequal categorized system for the elites’ political and economic purposes. From the 1980s, however, the democratic transition in Taiwan changed the household registration system from an unequal categorized and policed system to a registration system with more individualized characteristics and more universalized citizenship. In contrast, without democratic transition, the Chinese household registration system still is run by the public security department with the “agricultural” and “non-agricultural” divide. The historical comparative study shows the dynamics and decline of management and categorization of demographic governance in modern Chinese societies.
In this article we describe some special characteristics of the world’s greatest factory—in terms... more In this article we describe some special characteristics of the world’s greatest factory—in terms of the number of employees—belonging to the Taiwanese enterprise, Foxconn group in Shenzhen, China. We argue that the factory regime has been shaped by three key elements: (1) internal globalization: it refers to the global brand names, especially the Apple group’s authority and interventions of the production process in the factory; (2) organizational fragmentation: the fragmented structure of corporate governance, that is, the vertical fraction of business groups (BGs) and the horizontal segmentation of employees belonging to different nationalities. The fragmentation led to the strong autonomy of BGs and incomplete information between BGs; and, (3) workplace despotism: the surplus of Chinese low-skilled rural workers enforced the arbitrary managerial power on the shop floor. According to the three elements, we name the factory regime as a “global fragmented despotism.” The organizational structure of world factory may be helpful for explaining Foxconn’s poor labor conditions and workers’ suicides happened in 2010.
受科學、技術與社會研究 (Science, Technology and Society, 簡稱STS) 的啟發，本文以台灣的登山步道為例，來研究國家與公民社會關係，以及專業技術社群與使用社群之... more 受科學、技術與社會研究 (Science, Technology and Society, 簡稱STS) 的啟發，本文以台灣的登山步道為例，來研究國家與公民社會關係，以及專業技術社群與使用社群之間的關係，如何影響步道技術模式變遷的過程。與台灣其他的公共投資類似，1990年代以前觀光或登山步道工程通常是由國家官僚體制發包給營造商的標案，其技術準則是被景觀規劃或園林設計專業者所決定。然而，自2002年起，台灣登山社團與環保團體反對登山步道工程的抗議此起彼落，挑戰政府由上而下制訂步道施工標準與決定工程發包的舊有步道技術模式，並提出公民參與步道規劃的訴求。在社會運動的壓力下，國家步道工程主管單位林務局及各國家公園管理處，逐漸將登山社團的抗爭者、古道研究者以及步道志工模式的推動者納入步道規劃決策與維護體系中，嘗試學習「生態工法」減少步道土木工程，並引進民間社團參與、用人力進行步道日常維護的新技術模式。結果，這個公民社會改變登山步道施工技術的故事，對台灣其他希望參與公共工程規劃與技術轉型的社會運動提供了寶貴的經驗。
The article examines the relationship between Internet use and social networks as well as social ... more The article examines the relationship between Internet use and social networks as well as social inequality in Taiwan. I divide the literature into three approaches: Cyber-utopian, Cyber-dystopian (control theory), and skeptical (social-shaping aspect) and illustrate their different hypotheses regarding social inequality, social networks, political behavior, and collective action. The Cyber-utopian approach claims that the diffusion of Internet use reduces information cost, equalizes market opportunity, and
increases social capital, but the Cyber-dystopian approach claims that Internet use empowered ordinary political and economic elites. Both approaches focus on the social impacts of Internet use and imply technological determinism, while the skeptical approach focuses on the social inequality of Internet use, especially on the digital divide. According to a national survey (TSCS) conducted in Taiwan during the 2000-2010 period, I investigate hypotheses derived from the three approaches. The empirical findings confirm that inequalities still created digital divides of Internet use, but the effect of average time online per day is insignificant or ambiguous on the size of social network, income distribution, voting behavior, and participation in social movements. In sum, most empirical results support the skeptical approach rather than the two forms of technological determinism.
In this article we investigate the impacts of cross-strait trade on income inequality and the pol... more In this article we investigate the impacts of cross-strait trade on income inequality and the political behavior of Taiwanese voters. According to time-series data of macroeconomics, we find strong associations among the trade dependence on China and poverty rate in Taiwan. On the individual level, the class analysis of national surveys in 2010-12 shows that the winner of cross-strait trade is the capitalist and new middle classes. The deterioration of class inequality affected the political attitude and voting behavior of the members of different classes. The capitalists and new middle classes subjectively believed that the open trade benefited their family economy. In contrast, the workers and self-employed believed that the expending trade with China damaged their family economy and increased the gap between the rich and the poor. The different attitudes of cross-strait trade connected with the voting behavior—the supporters of trade, mostly capitalists and new middle classes, preferred to sustain the pan-blue camp; while the opposition of trade, mostly the working class and self-employed, preferred to support the pan-green camp.
近年來，災難研究將重心放在韌性(resilience)概念上，本文從制度主義出發，認為受災社群之正式制度與非正式制度裡的韌性因素影響災後重建。本文重新追蹤九二一地震之後127棟集合住宅社區的重建... more 近年來，災難研究將重心放在韌性(resilience)概念上，本文從制度主義出發，認為受災社群之正式制度與非正式制度裡的韌性因素影響災後重建。本文重新追蹤九二一地震之後127棟集合住宅社區的重建進度和結果，並根據該社區所在村里的地震災情、政治、經濟與人口等因素，檢證這些因素對於集合住宅重建成敗的影響。我們發現影響災後集合住宅重建快慢與成敗的主要因素，除了外部力量、社區網絡之外，也跟當地民眾的政治參與程度高度相關，統計數據指出一個村里在災難前後的投票率越高，當地集合住宅的重建越快，彰顯政治民主與社會資本有助於災後重建，是台灣社會韌性的主要來源之一。 This article traces the institutional origins of the resilience in disaster stricken communities to examine the success or failure of the different reconstruction projects. We propose a new framework from the collection action theory and the creation of public goods to explain why some communities can succeed in rebuilding their homes while some fail. Reviewing the 127 cases and collecting the panel data for 12 years, we argue that although the intervention of the third party might affect the efficiency and effectiveness of the rebuilding process, the strength of the civil society, preexisting social networks, locations and economic endowments of the affected communities are the critical determinants of the reconstruction project.
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Papers by 宗弘 林
applied to mitigate the APC problems. It investigates the APC differences of the preferences on national identities and democratic values using a pooled dataset of national social surveys between 1995 and 2010. According to the CCREM results, the “age effect” shows that the younger age-groups have stronger Taiwanese identity and more politically liberal attitudes, but the statistical effect is not very significant. On the other hand, the “period effect” shows that after the democratic transition, the whole population has stronger Taiwanese identity and more politically liberal attitudes, and the statistical effect is significant and robust. Finally, the “cohort effect” is more important and complicated than the “age effect”.
本文回顧近二十年來臺灣階級不平等與階級流動的趨勢。研究顯示造成臺灣各階級所得不平等惡化的因素有二, 其一是產業升級造成技術工人與非技術工人薪資所得不平等上升; 其二是全球化下兩岸經貿擴張, 獲益者集中在少數資方與技術管理高層, 對財產所有者減稅更導致所得分配惡化。階級不平等惡化造成階級流動的停滯, 包括創業機會減少與教育階級複製。因此,多項指標顯示臺灣民眾主觀上開始覺得自己的階級地位向下流動、貧富差距越來越嚴重。據此, 反服貿運動確實反映部分民眾對全球化造成階級不平等惡化的不滿。
transition and “demographic governance”, which refers to the identification, categorization and management of a population/household registration system. By comparing the similarity and differences of the development of household registration system in Taiwan and China after early twentieth century, it is illustrated that the divergence of demographic governance resulted from the early stage of modern state building. The Japanese colonial government in Taiwan from 1895 and the communist regime from 1949 established and sustained household registration systems by the police departments. Both the states in Taiwan and China developed unequal categorized system for the elites’ political and economic purposes. From the 1980s, however, the democratic transition in Taiwan changed the household registration system from an unequal categorized and policed system to a registration system with more individualized characteristics and more universalized citizenship. In contrast, without democratic transition, the Chinese household registration system still is run by the public security department with the “agricultural” and “non-agricultural” divide. The historical comparative study shows the dynamics and decline of management and categorization of demographic governance in modern Chinese societies.
increases social capital, but the Cyber-dystopian approach claims that Internet use empowered ordinary political and economic elites. Both approaches focus on the social impacts of Internet use and imply technological determinism, while the skeptical approach focuses on the social inequality of Internet use, especially on the digital divide. According to a national survey (TSCS) conducted in Taiwan during the 2000-2010 period, I investigate hypotheses derived from the three approaches. The empirical findings confirm that inequalities still created digital divides of Internet use, but the effect of average time online per day is insignificant or ambiguous on the size of social network, income distribution, voting behavior, and participation in social movements. In sum, most empirical results support the skeptical approach rather than the two forms of technological determinism.
applied to mitigate the APC problems. It investigates the APC differences of the preferences on national identities and democratic values using a pooled dataset of national social surveys between 1995 and 2010. According to the CCREM results, the “age effect” shows that the younger age-groups have stronger Taiwanese identity and more politically liberal attitudes, but the statistical effect is not very significant. On the other hand, the “period effect” shows that after the democratic transition, the whole population has stronger Taiwanese identity and more politically liberal attitudes, and the statistical effect is significant and robust. Finally, the “cohort effect” is more important and complicated than the “age effect”.
本文回顧近二十年來臺灣階級不平等與階級流動的趨勢。研究顯示造成臺灣各階級所得不平等惡化的因素有二, 其一是產業升級造成技術工人與非技術工人薪資所得不平等上升; 其二是全球化下兩岸經貿擴張, 獲益者集中在少數資方與技術管理高層, 對財產所有者減稅更導致所得分配惡化。階級不平等惡化造成階級流動的停滯, 包括創業機會減少與教育階級複製。因此,多項指標顯示臺灣民眾主觀上開始覺得自己的階級地位向下流動、貧富差距越來越嚴重。據此, 反服貿運動確實反映部分民眾對全球化造成階級不平等惡化的不滿。
transition and “demographic governance”, which refers to the identification, categorization and management of a population/household registration system. By comparing the similarity and differences of the development of household registration system in Taiwan and China after early twentieth century, it is illustrated that the divergence of demographic governance resulted from the early stage of modern state building. The Japanese colonial government in Taiwan from 1895 and the communist regime from 1949 established and sustained household registration systems by the police departments. Both the states in Taiwan and China developed unequal categorized system for the elites’ political and economic purposes. From the 1980s, however, the democratic transition in Taiwan changed the household registration system from an unequal categorized and policed system to a registration system with more individualized characteristics and more universalized citizenship. In contrast, without democratic transition, the Chinese household registration system still is run by the public security department with the “agricultural” and “non-agricultural” divide. The historical comparative study shows the dynamics and decline of management and categorization of demographic governance in modern Chinese societies.
increases social capital, but the Cyber-dystopian approach claims that Internet use empowered ordinary political and economic elites. Both approaches focus on the social impacts of Internet use and imply technological determinism, while the skeptical approach focuses on the social inequality of Internet use, especially on the digital divide. According to a national survey (TSCS) conducted in Taiwan during the 2000-2010 period, I investigate hypotheses derived from the three approaches. The empirical findings confirm that inequalities still created digital divides of Internet use, but the effect of average time online per day is insignificant or ambiguous on the size of social network, income distribution, voting behavior, and participation in social movements. In sum, most empirical results support the skeptical approach rather than the two forms of technological determinism.
This article traces the institutional origins of the resilience in disaster stricken communities to examine the success or failure of the different reconstruction projects. We propose a new framework from the collection action theory and the creation of public goods to explain why some communities can succeed in rebuilding their homes while some fail. Reviewing the 127 cases and collecting the panel data for 12 years, we argue that although the intervention of the third party might affect the efficiency and effectiveness of the rebuilding process, the strength of the civil society, preexisting social networks, locations and economic endowments of the affected communities are the critical determinants of the reconstruction project.