Yener Coşkun
Capital Markets Board of Turkey, TED University, Senior Regulator (full time), Visiting Lecturer (part time)
Capital Markets Board of Turkey, Middle East Technical University&Izmir University of Economics, Senior Regulator (full time), Visiting Lecturer (part time)
Yener Coskun, Assoc. Prof., have currently both government experience and academic background. He has been working for Capital Markets Board of Turkey since 1995 by specifically focusing on investment banking, institutional investments, REITs, and other capital market activities. At the academic side, his research areas are financial economics and housing macroeconomy. Yener spent 10 months at Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (2002–2003), as a visiting scholar and 9 months in University of Sheffield (2018-2019) as a post-doctoral researcher. He awarded MSc in Banking at Gazi University (Turkey) in 2007 and Ph.D. in real estate development at Ankara University (Turkey) in 2013. He awarded associate professor title (docent) in finance from Council of Higher Education of Turkey in 2018. Selected previous international professional/academic experiences of Coskun were member of RICS (MRICS), consultative member of RICS Sustainability Task Force Europe, acting chair for European Real Estate Society (ERES) Ph.D. Student Committee (in 2010-2013), and deputy chairman of the Education Committee of The Association of Appraisal Expert of Turkey (in 2017). Dr. Coskun was visiting lecturer for University of Sarajevo (2012-2013), Izmir University of Economics (2012-2016), Middle East Technical University (2017), University of Ljubljana (2018), and University of Sheffield (2019). He currently holds visiting lecturer positions at and TED University, Turkey (2019-2020). He has three published books, several peer-reviewed (in journals&books) and professional articles in finance, real estate finance and housing macroeconomics. Among others, his studies published in Housing Studies, Emerging Markets Review and Empirical Economics. He has various awards from different institutions such as The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Emerald and Federation of Turkish Philatelic Federation. Dr. Coskun holds local professional designations related to capital markets and real estate appraisal. As the scientific responsibilities, he contributes as reviewer and editorial & advisory board members in journals/conferences. Coskun currently edits two books (from Springer and Seckin Publication) on real estate valuation & finance.
Web-Sites
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3351-998X ;
SCOPUS: https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=57183932200
Mendeley: https://www.mendeley.com/profiles/yener-coskun2/
Publons: https://publons.com/dashboard/summary/
Researchgate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yener_Coskun
SSRN: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=467174
Specialties: Housing macroeconomics, finance, real estate finance, real estate appraisal
Phone: 00 90 312 292 88 24
Address: Eskişehir Yolu 8.Km No:156 06530 Ankara/Turkey
Web-Sites
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3351-998X ;
SCOPUS: https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=57183932200
Mendeley: https://www.mendeley.com/profiles/yener-coskun2/
Publons: https://publons.com/dashboard/summary/
Researchgate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yener_Coskun
SSRN: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=467174
Specialties: Housing macroeconomics, finance, real estate finance, real estate appraisal
Phone: 00 90 312 292 88 24
Address: Eskişehir Yolu 8.Km No:156 06530 Ankara/Turkey
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Books by Yener Coşkun
discipline framework should be improved by positive externalities arising from the effective use of the market and official discipline despite their inherent weaknesses. As methodology, we used national and international data and literature for theoretical reasearch, case studies and regulations. Information and data problem of the failing
banks has the limitation of the thesis. Therefore, we could analyze 4 Turkish banking institutions in the chapter 4 which are sufficient enough to clarify our argument. Finally, in terms of both theory and in the case of four failing Turkish banking institutions, the conclusion of our study is that although it is not easy to reach perfect disciplinary environment, weaknesses and inefficiencies of self discipline framework should be improved by both improving the current self discipline framework and also using positive externalities arising from the effective use of market and official discipline. In the context of Turkish banking, it is also defined that official and self discipline framework were improved after 2000-2001 economic crisis, but market discipline has still important limitations in terms of both regulatory framework and market practice.
Keywords: Risk Management, Banking Firms, Official Discipline, Market Discipline, Accounting and Reporting System, Internal Control, Internal Audit, Corporate Governance.
Financial discipline is important for both financial firms and the financial system. The finance literature provides many examples of the importance of financial discipline, especially given the number of recent corporate failures worldwide. In this book, we argue that the concept of self discipline can improve the performance of financial firms through effective accounting and reporting, internal control, internal auditing, risk management and corporate governance. To emphasize the importance of risk management in this framework, it should be noted that both a firm and its stakeholders have an incentive to establish effective internal and industry-wide risk management standards.
From the financial firms’ point of view, financial firms (like other firms) have incentives to manage firm level risks. The essential motive behind their self disciplinary incentives is clear: to make more money in a more secure environment. This firm level approach is directed at the firm’s internal needs only.
Financial history reveals that firm level risks may have a destructive impact on the financial system as a whole. To prevent or to reduce the negative impact of firm level risks, regulators also need to improve disciplinary practices of financial firms by using their intervention tools. The rationale of government interventions arises from social benefits and responsibilities of regulators. For example, one of the key elements of the securities and insurance business is their intensive emphasis on maintaining investor protection and confidence. From the banking perspective, one of the most important rationales of government intervention is to protect the financial system from systemic problems. So, in order to protect investors and the financial system, regulators and supervisors set rules and regulations and intervene in the governance of financial intermediaries. Additionally, one of the most important tools of this intervention process is to direct the risk management practices of financial firms. Therefore, from the regulation and monitoring sides of the financial intermediaries, effective risk management and control systems assure the protection of investors and promote stability throughout the entire financial system.
On the other hand, investors need a more secure financial system and they want to do business with a trustworthy service provider. Thus, because they seek out a secure institution to keep their funds, investors tend to view firm level effective risk management practices as a sign of confidence.
As seen, expectations from risk management vary. The research question of this book is whether self discipline creates a safe financial environment for financial firms. In other words, whether financial firms, regulators/supervisors and investors would trust self discipline alone as a disciplinary tool. In this book, we examine the mechanisms, components and finally, the pros and cons of self discipline. In our conclusion, we define self discipline as one of the most powerful disciplinary tools available to financial firms. But we also ask whether its limitations, weaknesses, inefficiencies and ineffectiveness require complementary disciplinary tools to improve firm and industry level discipline and control.
We are aware that we have raised questions about the effectiveness of current firm-wide risk management practices and, therefore, of the sufficiency of self discipline. As a result of the recent worldwide corporate scandals and failures, not only financial firms but also their stakeholders (particularly regulators/supervisors and investors) ask themselves whether self discipline is strong enough to promote stability both in the firm and also in the entire financial system. It is important to note that the finance world is still in the early stages of developing risk management and regulators (and investors) are looking for complementary ways to discipline risks. At this time, our approach provides a reasonable critique of self discipline with the goal of developing a better discipline and control environment for financial intermediaries.
Book Chapters by Yener Coşkun
to income approach normally deals with direct capitalization. This happens although the great diffusion of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. The main objectives of paper are twofold: first, we aim to propose an AVM procedure based on the relationship between the DCF inputs and outputs. Second, we seek to determine discount rate and local risk premium in the case of Bari commercial market The study also refines discussions on risk premium factor in the regressed DCF application. The study also and identifies the room for enhancing the suggested methodology. The solution proposed is the model A of Regressed DCF (d’Amato and Kauko 2012).
Svrha ove studije jeste razmotriti kako je turska građevinska industrija postala regionalni, a posebno svjetski vodeći “igrač”. Iako je u profesionalnom svijetu poznato da je turska građevinska industrija tokom posljednjih decenija imala veliki angažman i ostvarila dobre rezultate u svijetu te da se taj uspjeh ne može objasniti srećom, dosad je tu činjenicu analiziralo vrlo malo studija. Uz korištenje i pregled opsežne literature, tržišnih statistika, SWOT analize (snage, slabosti, prilike, prijetnje) i intervjua sa dva vodeća eksperta u industriji, nastojat ćemo objasniti pozadinu tog uspjeha. Da bismo postigli taj cilj, specifični ciljevi ovog poglavlja su: 1. identificirati utjecaje industrije u turskoj ekonomiji, 2. istražiti globalne utjecaje u industriji i prikazati ansformaciju industrije od lokalne u globalnu, 3. kritički ocijeniti lekcije naučene od industrije u kontekstu regionalne i globalne ekonomske integracije.
ÖZET: Bu çalışmada etkin piyasalar hipotezi kuramsal ve yerli/yabancı yazın bağlamında uygulamasal boyutlarıyla irdelenmiştir. Ayrıca BİST 100 Endeksi’nin ay sonu ikinci seans kapanış verileri kullanılarak 1993-2015, 1993-2002 ve 2003-2015 dönemlerinde rassal yürüyüş gösterip göstermediği, diğer bir deyişle zayıf form etkin piyasa olup olmadığı, analiz edilmiştir. Yöntem olarak normal dağılım testi, geleneksel birim kök testleri olan Genişletilmiş Dikey Fuller (ADF) ve Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt ve Shin KPSS (1992) testleri ve iki yapısal kırılmalı Lee ve Strazicich (LS) (2003) ve Narayan ve Popp (NP) (2010) testleri kullanılmıştır.
Çalışmamızda kullanılan yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri çeşitli içeriklerde Borsa İstanbul’un zayıf formda etkin olmadığına (rassal yürüyüş özelliği göstermediğine) işaret etmektedir. Bu nedenle, analiz edilen 1993-2015, 1993-2002 ve 2003-2015 dönemlerinde BİST 100 endeks değerinin, dolayısıyla endeks bileşeni olan hisse senetlerinin fiyatlarının, kamuya açıklanan bütün bilgileri yansıtmıyor olabileceği ileri sürülebilir. Bu piyasa koşulları aynı zamanda, geçmiş fiyat hareketleri kullanılarak normal-üstü getiri elde edilebileceğini de ima etmektedir. Söz konusu bulgunun piyasa katılımcıları açısından en dikkat çekici olabilecek sonucu; hisse senedi fiyatlarının ne yönde hareket edebileceğinin öngörülebilir olmasının, piyasada dürüst fiyat oluşumunun sorunlu olabileceğine işaret etmesi olasılığıdır. Bulgular ülkemizde hane halkının hisse senedi yatırımına sınırlı ölçüde yönelmesinin, hisse senedi piyasasının beklenen ölçüde gelişmemesinin ve hisse senedi finansmanının büyümeye sınırlı katkı sağlamasının; Borsa İstanbul’un rassal yürüyüş özelliği göstermemesi ile ilişkili olabileceğini düşündürmektedir. Bulgular ve buna dayalı çıkarımlara ilişkin olarak politika yapıcıların; hisse senedi piyasasının etkinliğini geliştirecek piyasa dinamiklerine ve düzenleme, denetim ve yaptırımlara öncelik vermesi önerilebilir.
Turkey is well behind the many countries according to socio-
economic development criteria. Activities aim to make Istanbul a financial center seem paradoxical due to less developed and risky characteristics of national economy and financial system. It seems that these activities have both economic and political rationales. Economic rationale of the Istanbul Financial Center (IFC) project suggests that Turkish economy has transformed to a safe harbor. Political rationale of this project may imply that evolving economy politics of post 9/11 environment may create economic advantages for Turkey. It has observed that the tool of regulation is of central role for the idea of the development of a financial center in Istanbul. In this paper, by using literature and data analysis, we examine the chance of the success of the regulatory/bureaucratic approach for IFC project.
We conclude that IFC project has weak internal dynamics and it occurred due to both its political attractiveness and also cyclical local/global economic/political conditions. But, it is not realistic to expect strong positive outcomes from the IFC project, if the project would focus only regulatory/bureaucratic approach.
ÖZET
Kalkınmışlık ölçütleri açısından ülkemiz çoğu ülkenin gerisindedir. Ulusal ekonominin ve finansal sistemin birçok açıdan az gelişmişliği/riskliliği veri iken İstanbul’un finans merkezi olmasına ilişkin çalışmalar paradoksal görünmektedir. Bu amaçla ortaya konulan yaklaşımın ekonomik ve siyasi olmak üzere iki önemli dayanağının bulunduğu düşünülmektedir. Ekonomik bağlamda Türk ekonomisinin artık “güvenli liman” haline geldiği üzerinde durulurken, politik yaklaşımda ise 11 Eylül sonrasında değişen siyasi iklim çerçevesinde gelişen yeni ekonomi politiğin ülkemiz lehine ekonomik avantaja dönüştürülebileceği gündeme getirilmektedir. Söz konusu avantajlardan finansal merkez olunması şeklinde bir değerin ortaya çıkmasında ise; kamu yönetiminin düzenleme işlevine merkezi bir rol verildiği görülmektedir. Yöntem olarak literatür taraması ve karşılaştırmalı veri analizinin esas alındığı bu çalışmada, düzenlemeci bir yaklaşım çerçevesinde İstanbul’un finansal merkez olması projesinin gerçekleştirilebilirliği incelenmiştir. İnceleme sonucunda; daha çok konjonktürel nedenler/siyasi cazibesi nedeniyle gündeme getirildiği ve içsel dinamiklerinin zayıf olduğu düşünülen İstanbul’un finansal merkez olması projesinin; salt düzenlemeci bir yaklaşım çerçevesinde hayata geçirilmesinin gerçekçi/inandırıcı olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Journal Articles by Yener Coşkun
markets over a period of 1975Q1-2016Q1 by employing both static and dynamic methodologies.
Design/methodology/approach – The research analyzes long-run static and dynamic spillover elasticity coefficients by employing three methods, namely, autoregressive distributed lag, the fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least squares estimator under a Kalman filter approach. The empirical method also investigates dynamic correlation between the house prices by employing the dynamic control correlation method.
Findings – The paper shows how a dynamic spillover pricing analysis can be applied between real estate markets. On the empirical side, the results show that country-level causality in housing prices is running from the USA to UK, whereas city-level causality is running from London to New York. The model outcomes suggest that real estate portfolios involving US and UK assets require a dynamic risk
management approach.
Research limitations/implications – One of the findings is that the dynamic conditional correlation between the US and the UK housing prices is broken during the crisis period. The paper does not discuss
the reasons for that break, which requires further empirical tests by applying Markov switching regime shifts. The timing of the causality between the house prices is not empirically tested. It can be examined
empirically by applying methods such as wavelets.
Practical implications – The authors observed a unidirectional causality from London to New York house prices, which is opposite to the aggregate country-level causality direction. This supports London’s
specific power in the real estate markets. London has a leading role in the global urban economies residential housing markets and the behavior of its housing prices has a statistically significant causality
impact on the house prices of New York City.
Social implications – The house price co-integration observed in this research at both country and city levels should be interpreted as a continuity of real estate and financial integration in practice.
Originality/value – The paper is the first research which applies a dynamic spillover analysis to examine the causality between housing prices in real estate markets. It also provides a long-term empirical evidence for a dynamic causal relationship for the global housing markets.
transmission and volatility spillover (STVS) effects among daily stock market indices of the US, UK, France, Germany, Japan, Turkey, China, South Korea, South Africa and India, together with the five major commodity spot price—crude oil, natural gas, platinum, silver and gold—over the period 05 July, 2005 and 14 October, 2016, i.e., covering the pre-crisis, crisis and post global financial crisis periods. In the full period, the primary trend in advanced and emerging countries is
the bidirectional STVS effects between stock and the commodity returns. However, the results also illustrate relatively less unilateral STVS effects from the commodity to stock returns, but significant unilateral STVS effects from the stock returns to the commodity returns in advanced and emerging countries. We also find more cases of
significant STVS effects between commodity and stock markets in all countries during the crisis and post-crisis periods compared to the pre-crisis period. Therefore, it indicates that STVS effects are the new normal for stock and commodity markets, despite the efforts of central banks during post-global crisis period. In practical terms, our findings suggest that resource allocation decision between stocks and
commodities should involve the analysis of the direction of the STVS effects in particular stock/commodity markets and cycles of the global economy.
in recent years. Turkish housing market has also experienced a boom
over the last decade with rapid house price appreciations. This study
is the first to employ two different house price indexes to analyze
housing bubble in Turkey in two different time periods, 2010:M1–
2014:M12 and 2007:M6–2014:M12. We first capture the determinants
of housing price by employing Bounds test and then examine whether
rising house prices have been justified by fundamentals by employing
OLS/FMOLS/DOLS, Kalman filter and ARIMA models. The Bounds test
results suggest that there is a long-term cointegration among house
price indexes and housing rent, construction cost and real mortgage
interest rate. The results imply that the Turkish housing market has
experienced some cases of overvaluation, but not bubble formation.
This evidence has several implications for house price dynamics and
risks in the Turkish housing market. Based on Turkish experience, the
study also draws policy implications for emerging housing markets.
discipline framework should be improved by positive externalities arising from the effective use of the market and official discipline despite their inherent weaknesses. As methodology, we used national and international data and literature for theoretical reasearch, case studies and regulations. Information and data problem of the failing
banks has the limitation of the thesis. Therefore, we could analyze 4 Turkish banking institutions in the chapter 4 which are sufficient enough to clarify our argument. Finally, in terms of both theory and in the case of four failing Turkish banking institutions, the conclusion of our study is that although it is not easy to reach perfect disciplinary environment, weaknesses and inefficiencies of self discipline framework should be improved by both improving the current self discipline framework and also using positive externalities arising from the effective use of market and official discipline. In the context of Turkish banking, it is also defined that official and self discipline framework were improved after 2000-2001 economic crisis, but market discipline has still important limitations in terms of both regulatory framework and market practice.
Keywords: Risk Management, Banking Firms, Official Discipline, Market Discipline, Accounting and Reporting System, Internal Control, Internal Audit, Corporate Governance.
Financial discipline is important for both financial firms and the financial system. The finance literature provides many examples of the importance of financial discipline, especially given the number of recent corporate failures worldwide. In this book, we argue that the concept of self discipline can improve the performance of financial firms through effective accounting and reporting, internal control, internal auditing, risk management and corporate governance. To emphasize the importance of risk management in this framework, it should be noted that both a firm and its stakeholders have an incentive to establish effective internal and industry-wide risk management standards.
From the financial firms’ point of view, financial firms (like other firms) have incentives to manage firm level risks. The essential motive behind their self disciplinary incentives is clear: to make more money in a more secure environment. This firm level approach is directed at the firm’s internal needs only.
Financial history reveals that firm level risks may have a destructive impact on the financial system as a whole. To prevent or to reduce the negative impact of firm level risks, regulators also need to improve disciplinary practices of financial firms by using their intervention tools. The rationale of government interventions arises from social benefits and responsibilities of regulators. For example, one of the key elements of the securities and insurance business is their intensive emphasis on maintaining investor protection and confidence. From the banking perspective, one of the most important rationales of government intervention is to protect the financial system from systemic problems. So, in order to protect investors and the financial system, regulators and supervisors set rules and regulations and intervene in the governance of financial intermediaries. Additionally, one of the most important tools of this intervention process is to direct the risk management practices of financial firms. Therefore, from the regulation and monitoring sides of the financial intermediaries, effective risk management and control systems assure the protection of investors and promote stability throughout the entire financial system.
On the other hand, investors need a more secure financial system and they want to do business with a trustworthy service provider. Thus, because they seek out a secure institution to keep their funds, investors tend to view firm level effective risk management practices as a sign of confidence.
As seen, expectations from risk management vary. The research question of this book is whether self discipline creates a safe financial environment for financial firms. In other words, whether financial firms, regulators/supervisors and investors would trust self discipline alone as a disciplinary tool. In this book, we examine the mechanisms, components and finally, the pros and cons of self discipline. In our conclusion, we define self discipline as one of the most powerful disciplinary tools available to financial firms. But we also ask whether its limitations, weaknesses, inefficiencies and ineffectiveness require complementary disciplinary tools to improve firm and industry level discipline and control.
We are aware that we have raised questions about the effectiveness of current firm-wide risk management practices and, therefore, of the sufficiency of self discipline. As a result of the recent worldwide corporate scandals and failures, not only financial firms but also their stakeholders (particularly regulators/supervisors and investors) ask themselves whether self discipline is strong enough to promote stability both in the firm and also in the entire financial system. It is important to note that the finance world is still in the early stages of developing risk management and regulators (and investors) are looking for complementary ways to discipline risks. At this time, our approach provides a reasonable critique of self discipline with the goal of developing a better discipline and control environment for financial intermediaries.
to income approach normally deals with direct capitalization. This happens although the great diffusion of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. The main objectives of paper are twofold: first, we aim to propose an AVM procedure based on the relationship between the DCF inputs and outputs. Second, we seek to determine discount rate and local risk premium in the case of Bari commercial market The study also refines discussions on risk premium factor in the regressed DCF application. The study also and identifies the room for enhancing the suggested methodology. The solution proposed is the model A of Regressed DCF (d’Amato and Kauko 2012).
Svrha ove studije jeste razmotriti kako je turska građevinska industrija postala regionalni, a posebno svjetski vodeći “igrač”. Iako je u profesionalnom svijetu poznato da je turska građevinska industrija tokom posljednjih decenija imala veliki angažman i ostvarila dobre rezultate u svijetu te da se taj uspjeh ne može objasniti srećom, dosad je tu činjenicu analiziralo vrlo malo studija. Uz korištenje i pregled opsežne literature, tržišnih statistika, SWOT analize (snage, slabosti, prilike, prijetnje) i intervjua sa dva vodeća eksperta u industriji, nastojat ćemo objasniti pozadinu tog uspjeha. Da bismo postigli taj cilj, specifični ciljevi ovog poglavlja su: 1. identificirati utjecaje industrije u turskoj ekonomiji, 2. istražiti globalne utjecaje u industriji i prikazati ansformaciju industrije od lokalne u globalnu, 3. kritički ocijeniti lekcije naučene od industrije u kontekstu regionalne i globalne ekonomske integracije.
ÖZET: Bu çalışmada etkin piyasalar hipotezi kuramsal ve yerli/yabancı yazın bağlamında uygulamasal boyutlarıyla irdelenmiştir. Ayrıca BİST 100 Endeksi’nin ay sonu ikinci seans kapanış verileri kullanılarak 1993-2015, 1993-2002 ve 2003-2015 dönemlerinde rassal yürüyüş gösterip göstermediği, diğer bir deyişle zayıf form etkin piyasa olup olmadığı, analiz edilmiştir. Yöntem olarak normal dağılım testi, geleneksel birim kök testleri olan Genişletilmiş Dikey Fuller (ADF) ve Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt ve Shin KPSS (1992) testleri ve iki yapısal kırılmalı Lee ve Strazicich (LS) (2003) ve Narayan ve Popp (NP) (2010) testleri kullanılmıştır.
Çalışmamızda kullanılan yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri çeşitli içeriklerde Borsa İstanbul’un zayıf formda etkin olmadığına (rassal yürüyüş özelliği göstermediğine) işaret etmektedir. Bu nedenle, analiz edilen 1993-2015, 1993-2002 ve 2003-2015 dönemlerinde BİST 100 endeks değerinin, dolayısıyla endeks bileşeni olan hisse senetlerinin fiyatlarının, kamuya açıklanan bütün bilgileri yansıtmıyor olabileceği ileri sürülebilir. Bu piyasa koşulları aynı zamanda, geçmiş fiyat hareketleri kullanılarak normal-üstü getiri elde edilebileceğini de ima etmektedir. Söz konusu bulgunun piyasa katılımcıları açısından en dikkat çekici olabilecek sonucu; hisse senedi fiyatlarının ne yönde hareket edebileceğinin öngörülebilir olmasının, piyasada dürüst fiyat oluşumunun sorunlu olabileceğine işaret etmesi olasılığıdır. Bulgular ülkemizde hane halkının hisse senedi yatırımına sınırlı ölçüde yönelmesinin, hisse senedi piyasasının beklenen ölçüde gelişmemesinin ve hisse senedi finansmanının büyümeye sınırlı katkı sağlamasının; Borsa İstanbul’un rassal yürüyüş özelliği göstermemesi ile ilişkili olabileceğini düşündürmektedir. Bulgular ve buna dayalı çıkarımlara ilişkin olarak politika yapıcıların; hisse senedi piyasasının etkinliğini geliştirecek piyasa dinamiklerine ve düzenleme, denetim ve yaptırımlara öncelik vermesi önerilebilir.
Turkey is well behind the many countries according to socio-
economic development criteria. Activities aim to make Istanbul a financial center seem paradoxical due to less developed and risky characteristics of national economy and financial system. It seems that these activities have both economic and political rationales. Economic rationale of the Istanbul Financial Center (IFC) project suggests that Turkish economy has transformed to a safe harbor. Political rationale of this project may imply that evolving economy politics of post 9/11 environment may create economic advantages for Turkey. It has observed that the tool of regulation is of central role for the idea of the development of a financial center in Istanbul. In this paper, by using literature and data analysis, we examine the chance of the success of the regulatory/bureaucratic approach for IFC project.
We conclude that IFC project has weak internal dynamics and it occurred due to both its political attractiveness and also cyclical local/global economic/political conditions. But, it is not realistic to expect strong positive outcomes from the IFC project, if the project would focus only regulatory/bureaucratic approach.
ÖZET
Kalkınmışlık ölçütleri açısından ülkemiz çoğu ülkenin gerisindedir. Ulusal ekonominin ve finansal sistemin birçok açıdan az gelişmişliği/riskliliği veri iken İstanbul’un finans merkezi olmasına ilişkin çalışmalar paradoksal görünmektedir. Bu amaçla ortaya konulan yaklaşımın ekonomik ve siyasi olmak üzere iki önemli dayanağının bulunduğu düşünülmektedir. Ekonomik bağlamda Türk ekonomisinin artık “güvenli liman” haline geldiği üzerinde durulurken, politik yaklaşımda ise 11 Eylül sonrasında değişen siyasi iklim çerçevesinde gelişen yeni ekonomi politiğin ülkemiz lehine ekonomik avantaja dönüştürülebileceği gündeme getirilmektedir. Söz konusu avantajlardan finansal merkez olunması şeklinde bir değerin ortaya çıkmasında ise; kamu yönetiminin düzenleme işlevine merkezi bir rol verildiği görülmektedir. Yöntem olarak literatür taraması ve karşılaştırmalı veri analizinin esas alındığı bu çalışmada, düzenlemeci bir yaklaşım çerçevesinde İstanbul’un finansal merkez olması projesinin gerçekleştirilebilirliği incelenmiştir. İnceleme sonucunda; daha çok konjonktürel nedenler/siyasi cazibesi nedeniyle gündeme getirildiği ve içsel dinamiklerinin zayıf olduğu düşünülen İstanbul’un finansal merkez olması projesinin; salt düzenlemeci bir yaklaşım çerçevesinde hayata geçirilmesinin gerçekçi/inandırıcı olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
markets over a period of 1975Q1-2016Q1 by employing both static and dynamic methodologies.
Design/methodology/approach – The research analyzes long-run static and dynamic spillover elasticity coefficients by employing three methods, namely, autoregressive distributed lag, the fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least squares estimator under a Kalman filter approach. The empirical method also investigates dynamic correlation between the house prices by employing the dynamic control correlation method.
Findings – The paper shows how a dynamic spillover pricing analysis can be applied between real estate markets. On the empirical side, the results show that country-level causality in housing prices is running from the USA to UK, whereas city-level causality is running from London to New York. The model outcomes suggest that real estate portfolios involving US and UK assets require a dynamic risk
management approach.
Research limitations/implications – One of the findings is that the dynamic conditional correlation between the US and the UK housing prices is broken during the crisis period. The paper does not discuss
the reasons for that break, which requires further empirical tests by applying Markov switching regime shifts. The timing of the causality between the house prices is not empirically tested. It can be examined
empirically by applying methods such as wavelets.
Practical implications – The authors observed a unidirectional causality from London to New York house prices, which is opposite to the aggregate country-level causality direction. This supports London’s
specific power in the real estate markets. London has a leading role in the global urban economies residential housing markets and the behavior of its housing prices has a statistically significant causality
impact on the house prices of New York City.
Social implications – The house price co-integration observed in this research at both country and city levels should be interpreted as a continuity of real estate and financial integration in practice.
Originality/value – The paper is the first research which applies a dynamic spillover analysis to examine the causality between housing prices in real estate markets. It also provides a long-term empirical evidence for a dynamic causal relationship for the global housing markets.
transmission and volatility spillover (STVS) effects among daily stock market indices of the US, UK, France, Germany, Japan, Turkey, China, South Korea, South Africa and India, together with the five major commodity spot price—crude oil, natural gas, platinum, silver and gold—over the period 05 July, 2005 and 14 October, 2016, i.e., covering the pre-crisis, crisis and post global financial crisis periods. In the full period, the primary trend in advanced and emerging countries is
the bidirectional STVS effects between stock and the commodity returns. However, the results also illustrate relatively less unilateral STVS effects from the commodity to stock returns, but significant unilateral STVS effects from the stock returns to the commodity returns in advanced and emerging countries. We also find more cases of
significant STVS effects between commodity and stock markets in all countries during the crisis and post-crisis periods compared to the pre-crisis period. Therefore, it indicates that STVS effects are the new normal for stock and commodity markets, despite the efforts of central banks during post-global crisis period. In practical terms, our findings suggest that resource allocation decision between stocks and
commodities should involve the analysis of the direction of the STVS effects in particular stock/commodity markets and cycles of the global economy.
in recent years. Turkish housing market has also experienced a boom
over the last decade with rapid house price appreciations. This study
is the first to employ two different house price indexes to analyze
housing bubble in Turkey in two different time periods, 2010:M1–
2014:M12 and 2007:M6–2014:M12. We first capture the determinants
of housing price by employing Bounds test and then examine whether
rising house prices have been justified by fundamentals by employing
OLS/FMOLS/DOLS, Kalman filter and ARIMA models. The Bounds test
results suggest that there is a long-term cointegration among house
price indexes and housing rent, construction cost and real mortgage
interest rate. The results imply that the Turkish housing market has
experienced some cases of overvaluation, but not bubble formation.
This evidence has several implications for house price dynamics and
risks in the Turkish housing market. Based on Turkish experience, the
study also draws policy implications for emerging housing markets.
Ülkemiz konut piyasasında son yıllarda önemli boyutlara ulaşan fiyat değişimlerinin neden ve sonuçları, konut sahipliğinin hane halkı ve genel ekonomi düzeyindeki yaygın etkileri nedeniyle ekonomik karar vericiler açısından büyük öneme sahiptir. Yazın taraması ve örnek olay analizi ne dayalı olan bu çalışmada, konut fiyatlarındaki değişimlerin nedenleri ve mikro/makro düzlemdeki olumlu/olumsuz etkileri incelenmiştir. İnceleme kapsamında ayrıca, konutun yatırım aracı olduğuna yönelik algı kuramsal açıdan ve ülkemiz örneğindeki uygulaması bağlamında analiz edilmiştir. İncelememiz sonucunda , konut fiyatına dayalı reel getirinin seçilen piyasaya/endekse/döneme/reelleştirme ölçütüne bağlı olarak değişebileceğini ve konutun yerel piyasa ölçeğinde reel getiri sağlayan bir yatırım aracı olabileceğini destekleyen bulgulara ulaşılmıştır.
Abstract
Observed in recent years, dramatic house price variations in Turkey have significant impacts on economic agents thanks to importance of housing ownership in household level and also widespread macroeconomic impacts of housing economics. The goal of the paper is to analyze positive/negative impacts of house price variations in micro/macro level based on literature review and case study analysis. Additionally, the paper also considers the investment vehicle perception of housing in theoretically and also its application into Turkish housing market. The outcomes of the study imply several important points. First, the outcomes may suggest that housing would be profitable investment option in Turkey. Second, real return of housing may vary in local market level depending on the adjustments in nominal house price appreciations based on selected time period, index and adjustment criteria.
The purpose of the paper is to empirically analyze volatility properties of the house price returns of Turkey and Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir provinces over the period of July 2007-June 2014.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper employs conditional variance models, ARCH, GARCH and E-GARCH. As the supportive approach for the discussions, we also utilize correlation analysis and qualitative inputs.
Findings
Empirical findings suggest several points. First, city/country-level house price return volatility series display volatility clustering pattern and therefore volatilities in house price returns are time varying. Second, it seems that there were a high (excess) and a stable volatility periods during observation term. Third, a significant economic event may change country/city level volatilities. In this context, the biggest and relatively persistent shock was the lagged negative shocks of global financial crisis. More importantly, short-lived political/economic shocks have not significant impacts on house price return volatilities in Turkey, Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. Fourth, however house price return volatilities differ across geographic areas, volatility series may show some co-movement pattern. Fifth, volatility comparison across cities reveal that Izmir shows more excess volatility cases, Ankara recorded the highest volatility point, and Istanbul and national series show lower and insignificant volatilities.
Research limitations/implications
The study employs maximum available data and focuses on some house price return volatility patterns. The first implication of the findings is that micro/macro dimensions of house price return volatilities should be carefully analyzed to forecast upside/downside risks of house price returns. Second, defined volatility clustering pattern implies that rate of return of housing investment may show specific patterns in some periods and volatile periods may result in some large losses in the returns. Third, model results generally suggest, however data constraint is a major problem, market participants should analyze regional idiosyncrasies during their decision-making in housing portfolio management. Fourth, because house prices are not sensitive to relatively less structural shocks, housing may represent long-term investment instrument if it provides satisfactory hedging from inflation.
Originality/value
The evidences and implications would be useful for housing market participants aiming to manage/utilize externalities of housing price movements. From a practical contribution perspective, the study provides a tool that will allow to measure first time of the return volatility patterns of house prices in Turkey and her 3 biggest provinces. Local level analysis for Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir provinces, as the globally fastest growing cities, would be found specifically interesting by international researchers and practitioner.
conceptual framework on housing requirement, ownership and demand. The policy suggestions of the research outcomes provide valuable information to decision makers and policy makers in housing market.
Keywords: Housing, Asymmetric Information, Housing Demand, Housing Consumer Protection, Housing Literacy.
JEL Classification: 018, R21, R31.
promotes economic growth, this does not necessarily benefit those on low-incomes in emerging countries. For the finance–poverty link, we find that neither banks nor stock markets play a significant role in poverty reduction.
Developments in housing finance system and activities of Housing Development Agency (HDA/TOKI) have been majör trends in recent years in Turkey. Primary reasons of the increasing activities of HDA are positive externalities
of real estate economy ,inefficiencies of mortgage system, and compansating income/wealth constraints in housing finance. Because existing literatüre does not comprehensively adress financial structure/efficiency of the HDA, the paper explores Fundamentals and financial efficiency of the HDA model. We
conclude although it has positive outlook, HDA system may have risks due to its less transparent/accountable organizational structure and financial structure. It is suggested in the paper that HDA may transform a full service financial
firm to minimize its potential risks and improve its corporate governance/financial efficiency.
Özet
TOKİ faaliyetlerinin son yıllarda ön plana çıkmasında; taşınmaz ekonomisinin pozitif dışsallıkları, ipotekli konut finansmanı sisteminin etkinlik sorunları ve konut finansmanındaki gelir/servet yetersizliği etkili olmuştur. Çalışmada, finansal etkinlik açısından yazında kapsamlı olarak incelenmediği
görülen, TOKİ modelinin temel nitelikleri ve finansal yapısının etkinliği analiz edilmiştir. İnceleme sonucunda, başarılı yönleri bulunmakla birlikte, TOKİ faaliyetlerinin ve buna ilişkin finansal sonuçların yeterince şeffaf olmadığı ve finansman yapısının risk/etkinlik sorunları doğurabileceği belirlenmiştir. Söz
konusu belirlemeler ışığında, olası faaliyet risklerinin azaltılması ve kurumsal yönetim/ finansman kalitesinin artırılabilmesi için, TOKİ’nin finansal bir kurum olarak yapılanması önerilmiştir.
risks, risk management is useful tool for companies and regulators. Companies and agencies use various risk management instruments to fulfill their responsibilities to stakeholders, and eventually society. In this respect, Kane [2] suggests that it is instructive to view financial services as a product that is supplied jointly by financial institutions and their regulators. However this approach represents an ideal point, both parties have different and uncompromising raison d’être. It has observed during global financial crisis while owners/ managers of companies lost their reputation and wealth, central banks paid the bill through taxpayers’ money. This picture reveals that to save the “system” state may take ultimate responsibility for firm/industry wide risk management practices due to statutory objectives of relevant agencies.
Konut-inşaat odaklı büyüme sürecinin, riskleri artırdığı tartışılıyor. Başka ülkelerdeki taşınmaz piyasası döngülerinin yıkıcı etkilerini düşünerek,
bu tartışmaları ciddiye almak gerekiyor.
performansını azaltıcı davranışsal bir etken olarak sürü davranışının
nitelik ve sonuçlarını Akinsomi ve bşk. (2018) çalışmamız üzerinden değerlendirmeye çalışacağız. Ülkemiz GYO sektörünün beklendiği kadar
gelişememesine neden olan söz konusu etkenin analizi aynı
zamanda GYO bilanço yönetimindeki başarıma ilişkin çeşitli
ipuçları vereceği için de ilgi çekici bulunabilir.
örneğinde iyimserliği ne kadar hak ettiğini gerçekçi olarak değerlendirmekte yarar var.
faizlerinin başını alıp gittiği günümüz Türkiye’si koşullarında
kuşkusuz bu haksız bir soru değildir. Çoklukla sorulan diğer bir
soru da, her şeye rağmen “konut alımına girişenlerin” ne kadar
sermaye kazancı elde edebileceğidir.
gelindiğinde bugünkünün iki katına çıkacağı öngörülmüştür. Kaynakların giderek azaldığı günümüzde artık bilim insanları Dünya’ya Dünya dışından kaynak getirmenin yollarını arıyor. Yatırım şirketleri ve hükümetler de bu çalışmaları destekliyor ve yakından takip ediyor.
Görünen o ki, çok yakın gelecekte elimizde tuttuğumuz bir altın külçesinin anavatanı bir zamanlar uzayın derinliklerinde yol alırken Dünya’dan gönderilen roketlere yakalanmış bir asteroid olacak.
reklam kuşakları, yüksek ve maliyetler nedeniyle daha da yükselmesi gereken fiyatlar yeterince iyi özetliyor.
odaklı hale getirmesini, yapay zeka uygulamalarının
finansal hizmetler sektörümüzün uluslararası pazar payını artırmasını,
gelir/servet bölüşümünün adil hale gelmesinin kalkınma hedeflerini desteklemesini konuşalım; ancak son 10 yılda ülkemizde öne çıkan başlıca ekonomik olgu inşaat ve konut sektörünün hızla büyümesidir. Kentlerin değişen görünümlerinden de anlaşılacağı gibi, özellikle dünya ölçeğinde hızla büyüyen İstanbul ve Ankara’da, son yıllarda da İzmir’de, inşaat ve konut sektörü kent ekonomisini biçimlendiren başlıca ekonomik olgular arasına girmiştir.
olan yatırımcı her zaman en akılcı yatırım seçeneğini tercih eder mi? Kuşkusuz etmek ister, tabi düşünce akışını bozan asimetrilere
direnebildiği sürece.
doğruyu söylemek gerekirse, varsayımlar ve kısıtlar dünyasının
üyeleri olan biz iktisatçılar (ve finansçılar) bu işte biraz zorlanıyoruz.
Milyarlarca ışık yılı uzaktaki yeni keşfedilen bir yıldızın iç yapısı,
gelişimi, hatta muhtemel sonu fizik bilgileriyle tahmin edilebiliyor.
Ancak yeni bir arzu nesnesi (örneğin hisse senedi veya konut yerine
Plüton’da bulunan deniz kabuğu diyelim) üzerinde neden spekülasyon
yapıldığı, bu spekülasyonun ne zaman ve nasıl biteceği bizim tarafta
tam olarak kestirilemiyor.
şekillenen olumsuzluklar sektörün yeni bir anlayışla düzenlenmesi gerekip gerekmediğini yeniden gündeme getirdi. Ne var ki çok boyutlu
yapısı sektöre yönelik politika tasarımını önemli ölçüde güçleştiriyor.
Düzenlemenin piyasa etkinliği ve girişimci özgürlüğü açısından akla gelmesi gereken son çözüm olması gerektiği düşünülebilir. Ancak ekonomik, sosyal ve belki de siyasi etkileri olabilecek piyasa başarısızlıklarının doğurduğu maliyetler, çeşitli sektörlerin daha yoğun
düzenlemeler ile karşılaşmasına neden olabiliyor.
dönem büyüme odaklı olarak algılanması, sektörün ölçek ve yaygın faydasının daralmasına neden oluyor. Bu nedenle inşaatın-konutun ölçek genişletici yeni bir hikâyeye ihtiyacı olabileceğini gündeme getirmekte yarar var.
duyarlılığı zayıf olan, üstelik kentte yaşamayı zorlaştıran ilerleme fikri çağdaş bir yaklaşımı temsil etmiyor. Ama görünen o ki, biz daha bu sarmalın henüz çok başındayız.
konut sahipliğinin Türkiye genelinde artmaması ve hatta
düşük gelir grubu için azalması üzerinden, konut finansmanı
sistemine/konut piyasasına yönelik algımızda bir tasarım hatası
olup olmadığını tartışacağız.
sürecinin odağına yerleştiğini dikkate aldığımızda, konut piyasamızın geleceğinin öngörülmesi işinin de üzerinde düşünülmesi gerektiğini anlıyoruz.
büyümesine engel oldu. Bununla birlikte artan terör olayları nedeniyle ihracat ve turizm gelirlerinin düşmesi, Moody’s/S&P’nin Türkiye’nin kredi
notunu düşürmesi, küresel durgunluk gibi etkenler Türk ekonomisindeki risklerin halen fazlasıyla etkin olabileceğine işaret ediyor.
According to the Central Bank of Turkey, real house prices grew 34, 68, 13, and 25 percent in Turkey, Istanbul, Ankara, and İzmir, respectively, from January 2010 to January 2015.
Economists attribute this house price growth to both positive socio-economic fundamentals, as well as excessive optimism in the market. Likewise, buyers see current house price inflation as a rational course of market expansion. The other perception among buyers is that housing is the best possible investment. The narrative goes that “house prices will always go up.”
(with Dr. Arvydas Jadevicius from Royal Agricultural University, UK. Full article available at: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/risk-of-a-
taking the separate and simultaneous effects of banks and stock markets into account.
To employ vector error correction model and granger causality tests, the objective of the paper is to present the findings of dynamic causal relationships between housing loans and macro-economic indicators related to general economy and housing markets in Turkey. In the research, we empirically analyze both impacts of widely used macro-economic indicators (CPI, unemployment ratio, real interest rate, current account, monetary aggregate), and also some additional variables, specifically involving household assets, income, subsidies and also house price index. In addition to other contributions of the paper, longer period house price index constructed by the author by combining actual house price index and a proxy index would be specifically interesting for the current literature.
By utilizing Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality Tests for the period (2007:6) to (2011:12), the primary purpose of this paper is to examine dynamic causal relationships between house prices and a wide range of macro-economic indicators (including rent values, volume of mortgage loans, consumer price index, monetary aggregate, Istanbul Stock Exchange REIT index, exchange rates, unemployment rate, construction cost index, consumer confidence index, construction permits, mortgage loan interest rate, gross domestic product, current account deficit and CDS spreads). In this context, the paper also empirically analyzes the negative impacts of global financial crisis into Turkish housing markets. To our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to use actual country-wide house price index in an analysis related to Turkish housing markets.
their practices in an ever changing marketplace. Moreover, it aims to encourage dialogue concerning the necessary changes that need to be undertaken by practitioners and professionals to
adopt necessary new approaches and practices.
market economy after 1980. Market reforms based on liberal policies,
were introduced and expanded both housing and finance markets. In
the last decade, Turkey has experienced increasing marketisation and
internationalisation in real estate markets. The Global Financial Crisis
(GFC) had only a short-term effect.
membership has become increasingly accepted as the global hallmark of professional expertise and integrity in property, both
in mature western European markets and in young, vibrant markets such as Turkey. Today, the number of property professionals willing to join RICS and apply the global standards of the organization to their business practices continues to grow.
In continental Europe alone there are nearly 6,000 qualified RICS Members–as recognized by the title MRICS (Member of RICS) or FRICS (Fellow of RICS); nearly 2,000 RICS Candidates for Membership who are preparing for their Final Assessment, and over 5,000 RICS Students studying a RICS-accredited course. 100,000 qualified members in over 100 countries and more than 71,100 candidates and students.
junges Durchschnittsalter, wachsende Bevölkerung, Konsumfreude, steigende Kaufkraft. Die BIP-Steigerungsraten
liegen mit erwarteten durchschnittlichen drei Prozent für 2012 sowie einer erwarteten ähnlichen Grössenordnung für 2013 und 2014 erkennbar über dem Durchschnitt der Europäischen Union.
yönüyle özellikle farklı firmalarca sunulan portföy yönetimi faaliyetlerinin mevcut ve potansiyel müşteriler açısından değerlendirilmesi imkanını getirmektedir. Performans ölçümüne ilişkin olarak incelediğimiz
standartlar, aracı kurum müşterisi açısından, portföyü çevreleyen ve daha çok müşterinin hukuken korunmasını amaç edinen düzenleme sistematiğinin ötesinde, karar alma sürecine sunduğu veriler sayesinde portföy sahibinin malvarlığındaki reel değişimlere karşı mali açıdan güncel olarak korunmasını amaç edinmiştir. Portföy yönetimi
hizmetini sunan açısından düşünüldüğünde ise, standartlar sunulan hizmetin kalitesinin aynı ortak payda da ölçülmesi imkanını vermektedir. Sunulan portföy yönetimi hizmeti kalitesinin finansal olarak ölçülebilir ve
belli sıklıklarla kamuya açıklanabilir hale gelmesi portföy yönetimi hizmetini sunanlar arasında da rekabete neden olacaktır.
Çalışmada temel kurum ve kavramları ile incelediğimiz sistemin sağlıklı olarak işlemesi temin edilebilirse, portföy sahibinin yatırım kararları daha gerçekçi ve güncel bir zeminde cereyan edecek ve performans açıklamasına dayanan sistemin öngördüğü müşteriyi bilgilendirme süreçleri, müşteriye sunulan portföy yönetim hizmetinin kalitesinde kendiliğinden bir gelişmeye neden olacaktır. Temelde bireysel portföy performansının ölçümü ve sunumunun değerlendirildiği çalışmamızda, The Association for Investment Management and Research’ün(AIMR) performans sunumuna ilişkin düzenlemelerindeki ortak unsurların tespit edilmesi amacıyla, PPS/GPPS standartları (Performance Presentation Standards ve Global Performance Presentation Standards) ile AIMR Performans Sunuş Standartları Komitesi’nin 1990 tarihli raporunda tavsiye edilen standartlar karşılaştırmalı olarak incelenmiştir. Standartların altında yatan felsefe ve mevcut uygulamaya yönelik yorum ve açıklamalar da her bölüm bünyesinde ayrı ayrı değerlendirilmektedir. Standartlar değerlendirilirken dikkat edilen bir başka husus ise, ilgili
ülkelerin mevzuatında yer alan spesifik düzenlemeleredayalı çözümlemelerin dikkate alınması yerine genelleştirilmesi ve ülkemiz koşullarında uygulanması müsait kuralların üzerinde özellikle durulması olmuştur. Kanaatimizce sistemin hassas noktası,
düzenlemeye konu edilmesi önerilen standartların öngörüldüğü biçimde uygulanıp uygulanmadığının, performans sunumunun zorunlu olarak yapılacağı dönemlerde bağımsız denetim firmalarınca
denetlenebilmesidir.
Çalışmamızın sonuç ve öneriler kısmında, önceki
bölümlerde incelenen standartlar ve standartlara ilişkin inceleme, yorum ve açıklamalardan hareketle geliştirilen somut öneriler, performans sunumu sürecinin sistematiğini kavrayacak genişlikte ve Portföy Gruplarının Oluşturulmasına İlişkin Esaslar, Getirilerin
Hesaplanmasına İlişkin Esaslar, Performans Sonuçlarının Sunulmasına İlişkin Esaslar ve Kamunun Aydınlatılmasına
İlişkin Diğer Esaslar ana başlıkları altında sunulmaktadır.
geliştirici, aracı sistem için iyi şeyler ama konut sahipliği artmıyor. Halkın geliri açısından ulaşmak istediğimiz noktaya yakın değiliz,” dedi.