... Jonathan Barichivich ... 5), which includes La Sequía de San Juan de Mañosca from 1636 to 1... more ... Jonathan Barichivich ... 5), which includes La Sequía de San Juan de Mañosca from 1636 to 1639 (VicunaMackenna 1877; Bonilla 1999; Piwonka 1999) when three of the four years are estimated to have had below-average precipitation (ie, 285.5, 313.4, 335.9, and 421.0 mm ...
Earlywood width chronologies from Douglas-fir tree rings were used to reconstruct winter (Novembe... more Earlywood width chronologies from Douglas-fir tree rings were used to reconstruct winter (November–March) precipitation for more than 600 years over Durango, Mexico. The tree-ring data were obtained from two sites of long-lived Douglas-fir in northern and southern Durango and the seasonal climatic precipitation data were regionally averaged from five weather stations well distributed across the state. The averaged earlywood chronology accounted for 56% of the variance in instrumental November–March precipitation 1942–1983. We validated the reconstruction against independent precipitation records. The worst winter drought of the 20th century in Durango occurred 1950–1965. However, the reconstruction indicates droughts more severe than any witnessed in the 20th century, e.g., the 1850s–1860s, and the megadrought in the mid- to late-16th century. Reconstructed winter precipitation 1540–1579 shows 33 of 40 years were dry. Persistent drought may be linked to extended La Niña episodes. The Tropical Rainfall Index (TRI) correlates well with instrumental and reconstructed winter precipitation (r = 0.49 and 0.55, respectively), reflecting the strong ENSO modulation of cool season climate over northern Mexico. The ENSO teleconnection varies through time, with TRI-reconstructed precipitation correlations ranging from 0.78 to 0.27 in five periods 1895–1993. The 1942–1983 winter observed and reconstructed Durango data correlate well with the corresponding seasonalization of the All-Mexico Rainfall Index (AMRI; r=0.68, P<0.0001 and r=0.70, P<0.001, respectively), indicating that both the observed and the reconstructed precipitation often reflect broad-scale precipitation anomalies across Mexico. New long Douglas-fir and baldcypress tree-ring chronologies are now available for central and southern Mexico near major population centers, allowing the exploration of relationships between drought, food scarcity, and social and political upheaval in Mexican history.
The 8th Century Megadrought Across North America, 2002
The 8th Century Megadrought Across North America
• Stahle, D. W. ;
• Therrell, M. D. ;
• Cl... more The 8th Century Megadrought Across North America
• Stahle, D. W. ;
• Therrell, M. D. ;
• Cleaveland, M. K. ;
• Fye, F. K. ;
• Cook, E. R. ;
• Grissino-Mayer, H. D. ;
• Acuna-Soto, R.
Abstract
Tree-ring data suggest that the 8th and 16th century megadroughts may have been the most severe and sustained droughts to impact North America in the past 1500 years. The 16th century megadrought may have persisted for up to 40 years, and extended from the tropics to the boreal forest and from the Pacific to Atlantic coasts. Evidence for the 8th century drought is sparse, but tree-ring and lake sediment data indicate that this drought extended from the northern Great Plains, across the southwestern United States, and into central Mexico and the Yucatan peninsula. Tree-ring data from Colorado and New Mexico document severe drought from A.D. 735-765, and may provide accurate and precise dating for the onset of the epic droughts reconstructed during the late first millennium A.D. with sedimentary data from Elk Lake, Minnesota; Moon Lake, South Dakota; La Piscina de Yuriria, Guanajuato; and Lake Chichancanab, Yucatan. If these chronological refinements are correct, then the sedimentary records suggest much greater persistence to the 8th century megadrought than indicated by the very high resolution tree-ring data, and a strong second pulse of prolonged drought late in the first millennium. Analyses of instrumental precipitation and drought indices during the 20th century, along with tree-ring reconstructions of climate in Mexico and the Southwest, indicate that annual and decadal droughts can both simultaneously impact the entire region from New Mexico and Texas down into central Mexico. The intensity and large-scale impact of drought across this region seem to be greatest when La Nina conditions and the low phase of the North Pacific oscillation prevail. The tree-ring dated 8th century megadrought occurred near the decline of the Classic Period civilizations at Teotihuacan in central Mexico and in the Mayan region of the Yucatan. The 8th century megadrought may have interacted with anthropogenic environmental degradation, epidemic disease, and social upheaval to contribute to the collapse of the Classic Period in Mesoamerica.
Publication:
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2002, abstract id.PP71C-04
Pub Date:
December 2002
Bibcode:
Keywords:
• 1812 Drought;
• 3344 Paleoclimatology;
• 4221 Dendrochronology
An average of three baldcypress ( Taxodium distichum) ring-width chronologies was used to recon s... more An average of three baldcypress ( Taxodium distichum) ring-width chronologies was used to recon struct total summer (JJA) mean daily flow of the White River at Clarendon, Arkansas, for years 1023–1985. A quadratic transformation of the tree-ring data accounted for 68% (R2 adjusted for degrees of freedom lost) when regressed against total summer flow 1931–1985. The distribution of the quadratic reconstruction matched the gauged distribution much better than a simple linear model which only accounted for 62% of the variance. The model was validated by comparing regression estimates against independent data. Years with summer flow below the 25th percentile occur nonrandomly, i.e., they tend to cluster, in both the reconstructed and gauged data. Hydrologic regimes have apparently varied considerably in the past on annual to century time-scales, with extended dry and wet periods that exceeded anything in the modern record. The frequency of both wet and dry extremes has varied considerably over the last millennium. The eleventh through thirteenth cen turies were not analysed due to reduced replication, but the well-replicated fourteenth and twentieth centuries both have large numbers of extremes. The twentieth century appears to have more extreme low flows than the previous centuries and also to have a large number of high flows. The practical consequences for society of variation in extremes and persistence of low flows may be considerable. Climatic change or anthropogenic changes to the watershed (e.g., widespread upland clearing for agriculture and logging of bottomland forests) may be responsible for the change in hydrologic regime during the twentieth century.
Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees in Queretaro have been used to develop the firs... more Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees in Queretaro have been used to develop the first exactly dated millennium-long tree-ring chronology in central Mexico. The chronology is sensitive to both precipitation and temperature, and has been used to reconstruct the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for June from AD 771-2008 for a large sector of Mesoamerica (most of central and southern Mexico).
... Jonathan Barichivich ... 5), which includes La Sequía de San Juan de Mañosca from 1636 to 1... more ... Jonathan Barichivich ... 5), which includes La Sequía de San Juan de Mañosca from 1636 to 1639 (VicunaMackenna 1877; Bonilla 1999; Piwonka 1999) when three of the four years are estimated to have had below-average precipitation (ie, 285.5, 313.4, 335.9, and 421.0 mm ...
Earlywood width chronologies from Douglas-fir tree rings were used to reconstruct winter (Novembe... more Earlywood width chronologies from Douglas-fir tree rings were used to reconstruct winter (November–March) precipitation for more than 600 years over Durango, Mexico. The tree-ring data were obtained from two sites of long-lived Douglas-fir in northern and southern Durango and the seasonal climatic precipitation data were regionally averaged from five weather stations well distributed across the state. The averaged earlywood chronology accounted for 56% of the variance in instrumental November–March precipitation 1942–1983. We validated the reconstruction against independent precipitation records. The worst winter drought of the 20th century in Durango occurred 1950–1965. However, the reconstruction indicates droughts more severe than any witnessed in the 20th century, e.g., the 1850s–1860s, and the megadrought in the mid- to late-16th century. Reconstructed winter precipitation 1540–1579 shows 33 of 40 years were dry. Persistent drought may be linked to extended La Niña episodes. The Tropical Rainfall Index (TRI) correlates well with instrumental and reconstructed winter precipitation (r = 0.49 and 0.55, respectively), reflecting the strong ENSO modulation of cool season climate over northern Mexico. The ENSO teleconnection varies through time, with TRI-reconstructed precipitation correlations ranging from 0.78 to 0.27 in five periods 1895–1993. The 1942–1983 winter observed and reconstructed Durango data correlate well with the corresponding seasonalization of the All-Mexico Rainfall Index (AMRI; r=0.68, P<0.0001 and r=0.70, P<0.001, respectively), indicating that both the observed and the reconstructed precipitation often reflect broad-scale precipitation anomalies across Mexico. New long Douglas-fir and baldcypress tree-ring chronologies are now available for central and southern Mexico near major population centers, allowing the exploration of relationships between drought, food scarcity, and social and political upheaval in Mexican history.
The 8th Century Megadrought Across North America, 2002
The 8th Century Megadrought Across North America
• Stahle, D. W. ;
• Therrell, M. D. ;
• Cl... more The 8th Century Megadrought Across North America
• Stahle, D. W. ;
• Therrell, M. D. ;
• Cleaveland, M. K. ;
• Fye, F. K. ;
• Cook, E. R. ;
• Grissino-Mayer, H. D. ;
• Acuna-Soto, R.
Abstract
Tree-ring data suggest that the 8th and 16th century megadroughts may have been the most severe and sustained droughts to impact North America in the past 1500 years. The 16th century megadrought may have persisted for up to 40 years, and extended from the tropics to the boreal forest and from the Pacific to Atlantic coasts. Evidence for the 8th century drought is sparse, but tree-ring and lake sediment data indicate that this drought extended from the northern Great Plains, across the southwestern United States, and into central Mexico and the Yucatan peninsula. Tree-ring data from Colorado and New Mexico document severe drought from A.D. 735-765, and may provide accurate and precise dating for the onset of the epic droughts reconstructed during the late first millennium A.D. with sedimentary data from Elk Lake, Minnesota; Moon Lake, South Dakota; La Piscina de Yuriria, Guanajuato; and Lake Chichancanab, Yucatan. If these chronological refinements are correct, then the sedimentary records suggest much greater persistence to the 8th century megadrought than indicated by the very high resolution tree-ring data, and a strong second pulse of prolonged drought late in the first millennium. Analyses of instrumental precipitation and drought indices during the 20th century, along with tree-ring reconstructions of climate in Mexico and the Southwest, indicate that annual and decadal droughts can both simultaneously impact the entire region from New Mexico and Texas down into central Mexico. The intensity and large-scale impact of drought across this region seem to be greatest when La Nina conditions and the low phase of the North Pacific oscillation prevail. The tree-ring dated 8th century megadrought occurred near the decline of the Classic Period civilizations at Teotihuacan in central Mexico and in the Mayan region of the Yucatan. The 8th century megadrought may have interacted with anthropogenic environmental degradation, epidemic disease, and social upheaval to contribute to the collapse of the Classic Period in Mesoamerica.
Publication:
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2002, abstract id.PP71C-04
Pub Date:
December 2002
Bibcode:
Keywords:
• 1812 Drought;
• 3344 Paleoclimatology;
• 4221 Dendrochronology
An average of three baldcypress ( Taxodium distichum) ring-width chronologies was used to recon s... more An average of three baldcypress ( Taxodium distichum) ring-width chronologies was used to recon struct total summer (JJA) mean daily flow of the White River at Clarendon, Arkansas, for years 1023–1985. A quadratic transformation of the tree-ring data accounted for 68% (R2 adjusted for degrees of freedom lost) when regressed against total summer flow 1931–1985. The distribution of the quadratic reconstruction matched the gauged distribution much better than a simple linear model which only accounted for 62% of the variance. The model was validated by comparing regression estimates against independent data. Years with summer flow below the 25th percentile occur nonrandomly, i.e., they tend to cluster, in both the reconstructed and gauged data. Hydrologic regimes have apparently varied considerably in the past on annual to century time-scales, with extended dry and wet periods that exceeded anything in the modern record. The frequency of both wet and dry extremes has varied considerably over the last millennium. The eleventh through thirteenth cen turies were not analysed due to reduced replication, but the well-replicated fourteenth and twentieth centuries both have large numbers of extremes. The twentieth century appears to have more extreme low flows than the previous centuries and also to have a large number of high flows. The practical consequences for society of variation in extremes and persistence of low flows may be considerable. Climatic change or anthropogenic changes to the watershed (e.g., widespread upland clearing for agriculture and logging of bottomland forests) may be responsible for the change in hydrologic regime during the twentieth century.
Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees in Queretaro have been used to develop the firs... more Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees in Queretaro have been used to develop the first exactly dated millennium-long tree-ring chronology in central Mexico. The chronology is sensitive to both precipitation and temperature, and has been used to reconstruct the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for June from AD 771-2008 for a large sector of Mesoamerica (most of central and southern Mexico).
ABSTRACT An eighteen-year meteorological diary and tree ring data from James Madison&#39;s Mo... more ABSTRACT An eighteen-year meteorological diary and tree ring data from James Madison&#39;s Montpelier plantation provide a consistent reconstruction of early summer and prior fall rainfall for the 18th Century Virginia piedmont. The Madison meteorological diary suggests a seasonal shift in monthly rainfall towards an earlier wet season relative to 20th Century norms. Furthermore, dendroclimatic reconstructions of early summer and prior fall rainfall reflect this shift in the seasonality of summer rainfall. The most pronounced early summer drought during the Madison diary period is presented as a case study. This 1792 drought occurs during one of the strongest El Niño events on record and is highlighted in the correspondence of James Madison.
Abstract We have developed a new 2,141-year long tree-ring chronology of latewood (LW) width from... more Abstract We have developed a new 2,141-year long tree-ring chronology of latewood (LW) width from ancient Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosae) at El Malpais National Monument, New Mexico. This is one of the longest precipitation-sensitive tree-ring chronologies yet constructed for the American Southwest and has been used to develop the first continuous multi-millennial tree-ring reconstruction of July precipitation in the region of the North American Monsoon System (NAMS). Monthly ...
The purpose of this study was to analyze the structural features, vegetation composition, and to ... more The purpose of this study was to analyze the structural features, vegetation composition, and to determine establishment dates of a Taxodium mucronatum stand located in Los Peroles in San Luis Potosi.
A 281‐year reconstruction of White River calendar year runoff at Clarendon, Arkansas, was develop... more A 281‐year reconstruction of White River calendar year runoff at Clarendon, Arkansas, was developed from a regional average of nine tree ring chronologies in Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas (including six post oak and three bald cypress chronologies). Inhomogeneity of the gaged runoff series prior to 1930 was detected with two independent double mass analyses, comparing the gaged data with Arkansas state average annual precipitation and the regional tree ring chronology average. The homogeneous runoff data from 1930 to 1980 were calibrated with the average tree ring data using regression. The variance of the reconstruction increases significantly during the twentieth century and may reflect climatic change and/or anthropogenic disturbances in the watershed. Years of surplus and deficit runoff are nonrandomly distributed in both the gaged and reconstructed series. This nonrandomness appears to be caused primarily by interannual persistence of runoff extremes, which may provide a basis for some improvement of probabilistic forecasts of annual runoff for the White River.
ABSTRACT An eighteen-year meteorological diary and tree ring data from James Madison&#39;s Mo... more ABSTRACT An eighteen-year meteorological diary and tree ring data from James Madison&#39;s Montpelier plantation provide a consistent reconstruction of early summer and prior fall rainfall for the 18th Century Virginia piedmont. The Madison meteorological diary suggests a seasonal shift in monthly rainfall towards an earlier wet season relative to 20th Century norms. Furthermore, dendroclimatic reconstructions of early summer and prior fall rainfall reflect this shift in the seasonality of summer rainfall. The most pronounced early summer drought during the Madison diary period is presented as a case study. This 1792 drought occurs during one of the strongest El Niño events on record and is highlighted in the correspondence of James Madison.
Tree-ring data suggest that the 8th and 16th century megadroughts may have been the most severe a... more Tree-ring data suggest that the 8th and 16th century megadroughts may have been the most severe and sustained droughts to impact North America in the past 1500 years. The 16th century megadrought may have persisted for up to 40 years, and extended from the tropics to the boreal forest and from the Pacific to Atlantic coasts. Evidence for the 8th century drought is sparse, but tree-ring and lake sediment data indicate that this drought extended from the northern Great Plains, across the southwestern United States, and into ...
We have developed a new 2,141-year long tree-ring chronology of latewood (LW) width from ancient ... more We have developed a new 2,141-year long tree-ring chronology of latewood (LW) width from ancient Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosae) at El Malpais National Monument, New Mexico. This is one of the longest precipitation-sensitive tree-ring chronologies yet constructed for the American Southwest and has been used to develop the first continuous multi-millennial tree-ring reconstruction of July precipitation in the region of the North American Monsoon System (NAMS). Monthly ...
Common patterns of climatic variability across the Western Americas are modulated by tropical and... more Common patterns of climatic variability across the Western Americas are modulated by tropical and extra-tropical oscillatory modes operating at different temporal scales. Interannual climatic variations in the tropics and subtropics of the Western Americas are largely regulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whereas decadal-scale variations are induced by long-term Pacific modes of climate variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). At higher latitudes, climate variations are dominated by oscillations in the Annular Modes (the Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations) which show both interannual and longer-scale temporal oscillations. Here we use a recently-developed network of tree-ring chronologies to document past climatic variations along the length of the Western Cordilleras. The local and regional characterization of the relationships between climate and tree-growth provide the basis to compare climatic variations in temperature- and precipitation-sensitive records in the Western Americas over the past 3–4 centuries. Upper-elevation records from tree-ring sites in the Gulf of Alaska and Patagonia reveal the occurrence of concurrent decade-scale oscillations in temperature during the last 400 years modulated by PDO. The most recent fluctuation from the cold- to the warm-phase of the PDO in the mid 1970s induced marked changes in tree growth in most extratropical temperature-sensitive chronologies in the Western Cordilleras of both Hemispheres. Common patterns of interannual variations in tree-ring chronologies from the relatively-dry subtropics in western North and South America are largely modulated by ENSO. We used an independent reconstruction of Niño-3 sea surface temperature (SST) to document relationships to tree growth in the southwestern US, the Bolivian Altiplano and Central Chile and also to show strong correlations between these regions. These results further document the strong influence of SSTs in the tropical Pacific as a common forcing of precipitation variations in the subtropical Western America during the past 3–4 centuries. Common patterns of interdecadal or longer-scale variability in tree-ring chronologies from the subarctic and subantarctic regions also suggest common forcings for the annular modes of high-latitude climate variability. A clear separation of the relative influence of tropical versus high-latitude modes of variability is currently difficult to establish: discriminating between tropical and extra-tropical influences on tree growth still remains elusive, particularly in subtropical and temperate regions along our transect. We still need independent reconstructions of tropical and polar modes of climate variability to gain insight into past forcing interactions and the combined effect on climates of the Western Americas. Finally, we also include a series of brief examples (as ‘boxes’) illustrating some of the major regional developments in dendrochronology over this global transect in the last 10 years.
Uploads
• Stahle, D. W. ;
• Therrell, M. D. ;
• Cleaveland, M. K. ;
• Fye, F. K. ;
• Cook, E. R. ;
• Grissino-Mayer, H. D. ;
• Acuna-Soto, R.
Abstract
Tree-ring data suggest that the 8th and 16th century megadroughts may have been the most severe and sustained droughts to impact North America in the past 1500 years. The 16th century megadrought may have persisted for up to 40 years, and extended from the tropics to the boreal forest and from the Pacific to Atlantic coasts. Evidence for the 8th century drought is sparse, but tree-ring and lake sediment data indicate that this drought extended from the northern Great Plains, across the southwestern United States, and into central Mexico and the Yucatan peninsula. Tree-ring data from Colorado and New Mexico document severe drought from A.D. 735-765, and may provide accurate and precise dating for the onset of the epic droughts reconstructed during the late first millennium A.D. with sedimentary data from Elk Lake, Minnesota; Moon Lake, South Dakota; La Piscina de Yuriria, Guanajuato; and Lake Chichancanab, Yucatan. If these chronological refinements are correct, then the sedimentary records suggest much greater persistence to the 8th century megadrought than indicated by the very high resolution tree-ring data, and a strong second pulse of prolonged drought late in the first millennium. Analyses of instrumental precipitation and drought indices during the 20th century, along with tree-ring reconstructions of climate in Mexico and the Southwest, indicate that annual and decadal droughts can both simultaneously impact the entire region from New Mexico and Texas down into central Mexico. The intensity and large-scale impact of drought across this region seem to be greatest when La Nina conditions and the low phase of the North Pacific oscillation prevail. The tree-ring dated 8th century megadrought occurred near the decline of the Classic Period civilizations at Teotihuacan in central Mexico and in the Mayan region of the Yucatan. The 8th century megadrought may have interacted with anthropogenic environmental degradation, epidemic disease, and social upheaval to contribute to the collapse of the Classic Period in Mesoamerica.
Publication:
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2002, abstract id.PP71C-04
Pub Date:
December 2002
Bibcode:
Keywords:
• 1812 Drought;
• 3344 Paleoclimatology;
• 4221 Dendrochronology
• Stahle, D. W. ;
• Therrell, M. D. ;
• Cleaveland, M. K. ;
• Fye, F. K. ;
• Cook, E. R. ;
• Grissino-Mayer, H. D. ;
• Acuna-Soto, R.
Abstract
Tree-ring data suggest that the 8th and 16th century megadroughts may have been the most severe and sustained droughts to impact North America in the past 1500 years. The 16th century megadrought may have persisted for up to 40 years, and extended from the tropics to the boreal forest and from the Pacific to Atlantic coasts. Evidence for the 8th century drought is sparse, but tree-ring and lake sediment data indicate that this drought extended from the northern Great Plains, across the southwestern United States, and into central Mexico and the Yucatan peninsula. Tree-ring data from Colorado and New Mexico document severe drought from A.D. 735-765, and may provide accurate and precise dating for the onset of the epic droughts reconstructed during the late first millennium A.D. with sedimentary data from Elk Lake, Minnesota; Moon Lake, South Dakota; La Piscina de Yuriria, Guanajuato; and Lake Chichancanab, Yucatan. If these chronological refinements are correct, then the sedimentary records suggest much greater persistence to the 8th century megadrought than indicated by the very high resolution tree-ring data, and a strong second pulse of prolonged drought late in the first millennium. Analyses of instrumental precipitation and drought indices during the 20th century, along with tree-ring reconstructions of climate in Mexico and the Southwest, indicate that annual and decadal droughts can both simultaneously impact the entire region from New Mexico and Texas down into central Mexico. The intensity and large-scale impact of drought across this region seem to be greatest when La Nina conditions and the low phase of the North Pacific oscillation prevail. The tree-ring dated 8th century megadrought occurred near the decline of the Classic Period civilizations at Teotihuacan in central Mexico and in the Mayan region of the Yucatan. The 8th century megadrought may have interacted with anthropogenic environmental degradation, epidemic disease, and social upheaval to contribute to the collapse of the Classic Period in Mesoamerica.
Publication:
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2002, abstract id.PP71C-04
Pub Date:
December 2002
Bibcode:
Keywords:
• 1812 Drought;
• 3344 Paleoclimatology;
• 4221 Dendrochronology