Political Economist; Political Methodologist; Spatial Econometrician; Founding Co-PI of EITM Supervisors: James Alt, Alberto Alesina, Peter Hall, and Torben Iversen
1. Introduction 2. The democratic commitment to social insurance 3. Financing the commitments - p... more 1. Introduction 2. The democratic commitment to social insurance 3. Financing the commitments - public debt 4. Monetary management of the macroeconomy 5. Comparative democrative political-economy and macroeconomic-policymaking.
Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, Apr 26, 2019
The basic economics of international trade imply that globalization will have driven in the devel... more The basic economics of international trade imply that globalization will have driven in the developed democracies of the Western world an increasing divergence between the material advancement of human, physical, and financial capitalists-a minority of the population-and the material stagnation or even decline of labor-a majority. This article reviews that theory and the strong comparative-historical empirical record substantiating those effects, and explains how the rise of xenophobic, nationalistic, antielite populism has its complementary roots in these economic developments.
Plans for European Monetary Union are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the ind... more Plans for European Monetary Union are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the independence of the central bank can reduce inflation without any real economic effects. However, the theoretical and empirical bases for this claim rest on models of the economy that make unrealistic information assumptions and omit institutional variables other than the central bank. When the signaling problems between the central bank and other actors in the political economy are considered, we find that the character of wage bargaining conditions the impact of central bank independence by rendering the signals between the bank and the bargainers more or less effective. Greater independence can reduce inflation without major employment effects where bargaining is coordinated, but it brings higher levels of unemployment where bargaining is uncoordinated. Thus, currency unions like the EMU may require higher levels of unemployment to control inflation than their proponents envisage; they will have costs as well as benefits, costs which will be distributed unevenly among and within the member nations based on the changes induced in the status of the bank and of wage coordination. Zusammenfassung Die Konzepte für die Europäische Währungsunion basieren auf dem allgemein vertretenen Postulat, daß mit größerer Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbank die Inflation ohne reale ökonomische Effekte verringert werden kann. Allerdings beruht die theoretische wie empirische Basis für diesen Anspruch auf Modellvorstellungen einer Volkswirtschaft, die auf unrealistischen Annahmen der Bedeutung von Informationen beruhen und institutionelle Variable-mit Ausnahme der Zentralbank-außer acht lassen. Wird allerdings die wechselseitige Wahrnehmung und Interpretation von Informationen ("signaling problems") zwischen Zentralbank und den anderen Akteuren in der politischen Ökonomie in die Analyse einbezogen, dann ist festzustellen, daß die Art der Lohnfindung die Intensität der Auswirkungen der Zentralbankunabhängigkeit beeinflußt je nachdem, wie wirksam die wechselseitige Wahrnehmung und Interpretation von Informationen zwischen der Zentralbank und den Tarifpartnern vermittelt ist. Im Falle koordinierter Tarifverhandlungen kann eine größere Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbank die Inflation in der Tat ohne größere Beschäftigungseffekte vermindern, im Falle unkoordinierter Tarifverhandlungen führt dies allerdings zu einem höheren Niveau der Arbeitslosigkeit. Daraus leitet sich die Überlegung ab, daß eine Währungsunion vom Typ "Europäische Währungsunion" ein höheres Maß an Arbeitslosigkeit erfordert, um die Inflation unter Kontrolle zu halten, als es ihre Befürworter erwarten. Bei den sich dann einstellenden Vor-und Nachteilen werden die Nachteile zwischen und innerhalb der Mitgliedstaaten ungleich verteilt sein, abhängig von dem letztendlich verwirklichten Grad der Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbank und der Form der Lohnfindung.
Most agree that models of binary time-series-cross-sectional data in political science often poss... more Most agree that models of binary time-series-cross-sectional data in political science often possess unobserved unit-level heterogeneity. Despite this, there is no clear consensus on how best to account for these potential unit effects, with many of the issues confronted seemingly misunderstood. For example, one oft-discussed concern with rare events data is the elimination of no-event units from the sample when estimating fixed effects models. Many argue that this is a reason to eschew fixed effects in favor of pooled or random effects models. We revisit this issue and clarify that the main concern with fixed effects models of rare events data is not inaccurate or inefficient coefficient estimation, but instead biased marginal effects. In short, only evaluating event-experiencing units gives an inaccurate estimate of the baseline risk, yielding inaccurate (often inflated) estimates of predictor effects. As a solution, we propose a penalized maximum likelihood fixed effects (PML-FE)...
Despite these shortcomings in Arceneaux's overall framework, the nuanced and insightful discussio... more Despite these shortcomings in Arceneaux's overall framework, the nuanced and insightful discussion of the individual cases offers multiple insights into the operation of and levels of success engineered by military regimes. The systematic discussion and comparison of ve of the most-studied military regimes in South America makes this a valuable addition to the libraries of area specialists.
Although scholars recognize that time-series-cross-section data typically correlate across both t... more Although scholars recognize that time-series-cross-section data typically correlate across both time and space, they tend to model temporal dependence directly, often by lags of dependent variables, but to address spatial interdependence solely as a nuisance to be "corrected" by FGLS or to which to be "robust" in standard-error estimation (by PCSE). We explore the inferential benefits and methodological challenges of directly modeling international diffusion, one form of spatial dependence. To this end, we first identify two substantive classes of modern comparative-and-international-political-economy (C&IPE) theoretical models-(context-conditional) open-economy comparative political-economy (CPE) models and international political-economy (IPE) models, which imply diffusion (along with predecessors, closed-economy CPE and orthogonal open-economy CPE)-and then we evaluate the relative performance of three estimators-non-spatial OLS, spatial OLS, and spatial 2SLS-for analyzing empirical models corresponding to these two modern alternative theoretical visions from spatially interdependent data. Finally, we offer a substantive application of the spatial 2SLS approach in what we call a spatial error-correction model of international tax competition.
Interdependence is ubiquitous, and often central, across political economy. In comparative politi... more Interdependence is ubiquitous, and often central, across political economy. In comparative political economy, for example, globalization and rising capital mobility imply tax competition that suggests the fiscal policies of one country must depend crucially upon those of other countries with which it competes for capital. In international political economy, to give another example, security concerns and the global structure of military alliances are likely to make trade flows interdependent across country dyads. We explain how any situation that involves externalities from one unit's actions on others' implies interdependence and show how to model such interdependent processes empirically. We discuss how to estimate properly specified interdependence models with spatial lags by maximum likelihood and how to interpret and present the resulting estimated spatio-temporal effects, response paths, and long-run steady-states, with their associated standard errors. We illustrate with replications of two noteworthy earlier studies from comparative and international political economy.
Multilevel regression with post-stratification, short MrP, has quickly become a standard model to... more Multilevel regression with post-stratification, short MrP, has quickly become a standard model to measure public opinion across e.g. geographical units. This chapter shows how it outperforms other alternatives and illustrates MrP with concrete examples. Readers are walked step-by-step through the construction of a MrP model-code and data are available for replication. We also discuss and illustrate the relevance of context-level factors and how to generate uncertainty estimates of our measurements. The chapter ends with a discussion of extensions and ongoing research projects that promise to further improve MrP.
ABSTRACT One of the central challenges to inference in the context of potentially interdependent ... more ABSTRACT One of the central challenges to inference in the context of potentially interdependent observations, known as Galton's Problem, is the difficulty distinguishing spatially correlated observations due to observed units exposure to spatially correlated shocks from spatial correlation in outcomes due to contagion (spillovers) between units. The applied researcher's first, and to date only, defense against confusing these substantively importantly different processes empirically has been to control as best possible with observable regressors and/or fixed effects for correlated-shocks processes when estimating contagion (spatial-autoregression). While specifying empirical models & measures as precisely and powerfully as possible remains as always optimal practice, these extant strategies cannot guard fully against the possibility of exposure to 'unobserved' exogenous shocks that are distributed spatially in manner not fully common to some set of units (fixed effects) or fully controlled by observable exogenous factors (control variables), but rather distributed across units more similarly to the pattern by which the outcome is contagious. Following the robust Lagrange-multiplier test strategy of Anselin, Bera, Florax, & Yoon (1996), which offered tests of spatial-autoregressive lag or of error against independence, robust to the presence of the other autoregressive process, we derive and evaluate the performance of a robust Lagrange-multiplier test for spatial-autoregression (contagion) against independence, which is robust to the presence of unobserved (uncontrolled/unmodeled) correlated-shocks distributed across units identically to the pattern of contagion (along with the symmetric robust test for spatially correlated shocks robust to autoregressive contagion). The test results are constructive and can be highly informative in offering direct & more-definitive answer than heretofore possible to the question posed by Galton's Problem, common shocks or contagion?.
VOLUME ONE Part One: Introduction: The Challenges of and an Approach to Empirical Analysis in Soc... more VOLUME ONE Part One: Introduction: The Challenges of and an Approach to Empirical Analysis in Social Science Multicausality, Context-Conditionality, and Endogeneity - Robert Franzese Puzzles, Proverbs, and Omega Matrices: The Scientific and Social Significance of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models (EITM) - Jim Granato and Frank Scioli Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models - Muhammet Ali Bas, Curtis Signorino and Robert Walker Part Two: Measurement 2a. Measurement & Measurement Error, Missing Data: Toward Theories of Data: The State of Political Methodology - Christopher Achen Measurement - Simon Jackman Measurement Error across Disciplines - Robert Groves Enhancing the Validity and Cross-Cultural Comparability of Measurement in Survey Research - Gary King et al. Analyzing Incomplete Political Science Data: An Alternative Algorithm for Multiple Imputation - Gary King et al. 2b. Measurement Applications: Extract from Congress: A Political-Economic History of Roll Call Voting - Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal Democracy as a Latent Variable - Simon Jackman and Shawn Treier Dynamic Representation - James Stimson, Michael MacKuen and Robert Erikson VOLUME TWO Part Three: The Foundational Multivariate-Regression Model and Models for Limited & Qualitative Dependent Variables 3a. Use & Interpretation of Multivariate-Regression Models: Elementary Regression Theory and Social Science Practice - Christopher Achen 3b. Use & Interpretation of Limited & Qualitative Dependent-Variable Models: Extracts from Unifying Political Methodology - Gary King Extracts from Generalized Linear Models - Jeff Gill Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation - Gary King, Michael Tomz and Jason Wittenberg 3c. Estimation and Inference in the Bayesian Paradigm: Single-Parameter Models - Jeff Gill Pooling Disparate Observations - Larry Bartels Estimation and Inference Are Missing Data Problems: Unifying Social Science Statistics via Bayesian Simulation - Simon Jackman Part Four: Heterogeneity and Heterogeneous Effects 4a. Unit & Period "Fixed Effects": Dirty Pool - Donald Green, Soo Yeon Kim and David Yoon Throwing Out the Baby with the Bath Water: A Comment on Green, Kim, and Yoon - Nathaniel Beck and Jonathan Katz Problematic Choices: Testing for Correlated Unit Specific Effects in Panel Data - Vera Troeger VOLUME THREE 4b. Interaction & Nonlinear Models: Theory to Practice - Cindy Kam and Robert Franzese Multiple Hands on the Wheel: Empirically Modeling Partial Delegation and Shared Control of Monetary Policy in the Open and Institutionalized Economy - Robert Franzese 4c. Random-Coefficient/Hierarchical/Multilevel Models: Causal Heterogeneity in Comparative Research: A Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling Approach - Bruce Western Modeling Multilevel Data Structures - Marco Steenbergen and Bradford Jones Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Poststratification: State-Level Estimates from National Polls - David Park, Andrew Gelman and Joseph Bafumi Part Five: Dynamic Models Selections 5a. Models for Temporal Dependence: Comparing Dynamic Specifications: The Case of Presidential Approval - Nathaniel Beck Taking Time Seriously - Suzanna De Boef and Luke Keele Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable - Nathaniel Beck, Jonathan Katz and Richard Tucker Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data - David Carter and Curtis Signorino Time Is of the Essence: Event History Models in Political Science - Janet Box-Steffensmeier and Bradford Jones VOLUME FOUR 5b. Models for Cross-UnitInterdependence: Empirical Models of Spatial Interdependence - Robert Franzese and Jude Hays Network Analysis and Political Science - Michael Ward, Katherine Stovel and Audrey Sacks Inferential Network Analysis with Exponential Random Graph Models - Skyler Cranmer and Bruce Desmarais Spatial- and Spatiotemporal-Autoregressive Probit Models of Interdependent Binary Outcomes - Robert Franzese, Jude Hays and Scott Cook 5c. Models for Time-Series-Cross-Section and Panel Data: Regression in Space and Time: A Statistical Essay - James Stimson Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models in Political Science - Gregory Wawro Modeling Dynamics in Time-Series-Cross-Section Political Economy Data - Nathaniel Beck and Jonathan Katz Beyond Fixed versus Random Effects: A Framework for Improving Substantive and Statistical Analysis of Panel, Time-Series Cross-Sectional, and Multilevel Data - Brandon Bartels Part Six: Endogeneity and Causal Inference Selections 6a. Instrumental-Variables Methods: Instrumental and `Quasi-Instrumental' Variables - Larry Bartels Instrumental Variables Estimation in Political Science: A Readers' Guide - Allison Sovey and Donald Green Model Specification in Instrumental-Variables Regression - Thad Dunning VOLUME FIVE 6b. Full-Information Maximum-Likelihood (FIML) Methods: Endogeneity and Structural Equation…
... Wage Bargaining Systems in the Single European Currency Area-David Soskice and Torben Iversen... more ... Wage Bargaining Systems in the Single European Currency Area-David Soskice and Torben Iversen 107-129 6. Strategic Wage Setting in a Monetary Union-Lila Cavillari 131-145 7. Interest Groups, Enlargement of the EMU and Labor Market Reform-Michael Neugart 147-164 ...
Spatial/Spatiotemporal interdependence-i.e., that the outcomes, actions, or choices of some unit-... more Spatial/Spatiotemporal interdependence-i.e., that the outcomes, actions, or choices of some unit-times depend on those of others-is substantively and theoretically ubiquitous and central in binary outcomes of interest across the social sciences. However, most empirical applications omit spatial interdependence and, at best, treat temporal dependence as nuisance to be "kludged"; indeed, even theoretical and substantive discussion usually ignores (inter)dependence. Moreover, in the few contexts where spatial interdependence has been acknowledged or emphasized, such as in the socialnetwork and policy-diffusion literatures, empirical models either do not fully reflect the simultaneity of the outcomes across units, or they do not recognize the endogeneity of the spatial lags which are used (appropriately) to model the interdependence. This paper notes and explains some of the severe challenges posed by spatiotemporal interdependence in binary-outcome models and then follows recent spatial-econometric advances to suggest two simulation-based approaches for surmounting the computational intensiveness of these models: classical recursive-importance-sampling (RIS) or Bayesian Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC). Serial autocorrelation in binary outcomes raises essentially the same challenges, so these strategies offer effective approach temporal dependence as well. We provide Monte-Carlo comparisons of the performance of these alternative estimators for spatial probit, including comparisons to estimation-strategies blind to or naïve about (inter)dependence-i.e., omitting spatial lags or including them but treating them as exogenous regressors in standard probit estimation-and then we show how to apply related simulation methods to calculate estimated spatial effects of hypothetical shocks in terms of outcomes or probabilities of outcomes (with associated confidence/credibility regions) rather than only in parameter-estimate or latent-variable terms as in all prior spatial-probit applications. We illustrate with applications to U.S. states' adoptions of legislative term-limits and to great-power decisions to enter World War I.
1. Introduction 2. The democratic commitment to social insurance 3. Financing the commitments - p... more 1. Introduction 2. The democratic commitment to social insurance 3. Financing the commitments - public debt 4. Monetary management of the macroeconomy 5. Comparative democrative political-economy and macroeconomic-policymaking.
Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, Apr 26, 2019
The basic economics of international trade imply that globalization will have driven in the devel... more The basic economics of international trade imply that globalization will have driven in the developed democracies of the Western world an increasing divergence between the material advancement of human, physical, and financial capitalists-a minority of the population-and the material stagnation or even decline of labor-a majority. This article reviews that theory and the strong comparative-historical empirical record substantiating those effects, and explains how the rise of xenophobic, nationalistic, antielite populism has its complementary roots in these economic developments.
Plans for European Monetary Union are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the ind... more Plans for European Monetary Union are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the independence of the central bank can reduce inflation without any real economic effects. However, the theoretical and empirical bases for this claim rest on models of the economy that make unrealistic information assumptions and omit institutional variables other than the central bank. When the signaling problems between the central bank and other actors in the political economy are considered, we find that the character of wage bargaining conditions the impact of central bank independence by rendering the signals between the bank and the bargainers more or less effective. Greater independence can reduce inflation without major employment effects where bargaining is coordinated, but it brings higher levels of unemployment where bargaining is uncoordinated. Thus, currency unions like the EMU may require higher levels of unemployment to control inflation than their proponents envisage; they will have costs as well as benefits, costs which will be distributed unevenly among and within the member nations based on the changes induced in the status of the bank and of wage coordination. Zusammenfassung Die Konzepte für die Europäische Währungsunion basieren auf dem allgemein vertretenen Postulat, daß mit größerer Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbank die Inflation ohne reale ökonomische Effekte verringert werden kann. Allerdings beruht die theoretische wie empirische Basis für diesen Anspruch auf Modellvorstellungen einer Volkswirtschaft, die auf unrealistischen Annahmen der Bedeutung von Informationen beruhen und institutionelle Variable-mit Ausnahme der Zentralbank-außer acht lassen. Wird allerdings die wechselseitige Wahrnehmung und Interpretation von Informationen ("signaling problems") zwischen Zentralbank und den anderen Akteuren in der politischen Ökonomie in die Analyse einbezogen, dann ist festzustellen, daß die Art der Lohnfindung die Intensität der Auswirkungen der Zentralbankunabhängigkeit beeinflußt je nachdem, wie wirksam die wechselseitige Wahrnehmung und Interpretation von Informationen zwischen der Zentralbank und den Tarifpartnern vermittelt ist. Im Falle koordinierter Tarifverhandlungen kann eine größere Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbank die Inflation in der Tat ohne größere Beschäftigungseffekte vermindern, im Falle unkoordinierter Tarifverhandlungen führt dies allerdings zu einem höheren Niveau der Arbeitslosigkeit. Daraus leitet sich die Überlegung ab, daß eine Währungsunion vom Typ "Europäische Währungsunion" ein höheres Maß an Arbeitslosigkeit erfordert, um die Inflation unter Kontrolle zu halten, als es ihre Befürworter erwarten. Bei den sich dann einstellenden Vor-und Nachteilen werden die Nachteile zwischen und innerhalb der Mitgliedstaaten ungleich verteilt sein, abhängig von dem letztendlich verwirklichten Grad der Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbank und der Form der Lohnfindung.
Most agree that models of binary time-series-cross-sectional data in political science often poss... more Most agree that models of binary time-series-cross-sectional data in political science often possess unobserved unit-level heterogeneity. Despite this, there is no clear consensus on how best to account for these potential unit effects, with many of the issues confronted seemingly misunderstood. For example, one oft-discussed concern with rare events data is the elimination of no-event units from the sample when estimating fixed effects models. Many argue that this is a reason to eschew fixed effects in favor of pooled or random effects models. We revisit this issue and clarify that the main concern with fixed effects models of rare events data is not inaccurate or inefficient coefficient estimation, but instead biased marginal effects. In short, only evaluating event-experiencing units gives an inaccurate estimate of the baseline risk, yielding inaccurate (often inflated) estimates of predictor effects. As a solution, we propose a penalized maximum likelihood fixed effects (PML-FE)...
Despite these shortcomings in Arceneaux's overall framework, the nuanced and insightful discussio... more Despite these shortcomings in Arceneaux's overall framework, the nuanced and insightful discussion of the individual cases offers multiple insights into the operation of and levels of success engineered by military regimes. The systematic discussion and comparison of ve of the most-studied military regimes in South America makes this a valuable addition to the libraries of area specialists.
Although scholars recognize that time-series-cross-section data typically correlate across both t... more Although scholars recognize that time-series-cross-section data typically correlate across both time and space, they tend to model temporal dependence directly, often by lags of dependent variables, but to address spatial interdependence solely as a nuisance to be "corrected" by FGLS or to which to be "robust" in standard-error estimation (by PCSE). We explore the inferential benefits and methodological challenges of directly modeling international diffusion, one form of spatial dependence. To this end, we first identify two substantive classes of modern comparative-and-international-political-economy (C&IPE) theoretical models-(context-conditional) open-economy comparative political-economy (CPE) models and international political-economy (IPE) models, which imply diffusion (along with predecessors, closed-economy CPE and orthogonal open-economy CPE)-and then we evaluate the relative performance of three estimators-non-spatial OLS, spatial OLS, and spatial 2SLS-for analyzing empirical models corresponding to these two modern alternative theoretical visions from spatially interdependent data. Finally, we offer a substantive application of the spatial 2SLS approach in what we call a spatial error-correction model of international tax competition.
Interdependence is ubiquitous, and often central, across political economy. In comparative politi... more Interdependence is ubiquitous, and often central, across political economy. In comparative political economy, for example, globalization and rising capital mobility imply tax competition that suggests the fiscal policies of one country must depend crucially upon those of other countries with which it competes for capital. In international political economy, to give another example, security concerns and the global structure of military alliances are likely to make trade flows interdependent across country dyads. We explain how any situation that involves externalities from one unit's actions on others' implies interdependence and show how to model such interdependent processes empirically. We discuss how to estimate properly specified interdependence models with spatial lags by maximum likelihood and how to interpret and present the resulting estimated spatio-temporal effects, response paths, and long-run steady-states, with their associated standard errors. We illustrate with replications of two noteworthy earlier studies from comparative and international political economy.
Multilevel regression with post-stratification, short MrP, has quickly become a standard model to... more Multilevel regression with post-stratification, short MrP, has quickly become a standard model to measure public opinion across e.g. geographical units. This chapter shows how it outperforms other alternatives and illustrates MrP with concrete examples. Readers are walked step-by-step through the construction of a MrP model-code and data are available for replication. We also discuss and illustrate the relevance of context-level factors and how to generate uncertainty estimates of our measurements. The chapter ends with a discussion of extensions and ongoing research projects that promise to further improve MrP.
ABSTRACT One of the central challenges to inference in the context of potentially interdependent ... more ABSTRACT One of the central challenges to inference in the context of potentially interdependent observations, known as Galton's Problem, is the difficulty distinguishing spatially correlated observations due to observed units exposure to spatially correlated shocks from spatial correlation in outcomes due to contagion (spillovers) between units. The applied researcher's first, and to date only, defense against confusing these substantively importantly different processes empirically has been to control as best possible with observable regressors and/or fixed effects for correlated-shocks processes when estimating contagion (spatial-autoregression). While specifying empirical models & measures as precisely and powerfully as possible remains as always optimal practice, these extant strategies cannot guard fully against the possibility of exposure to 'unobserved' exogenous shocks that are distributed spatially in manner not fully common to some set of units (fixed effects) or fully controlled by observable exogenous factors (control variables), but rather distributed across units more similarly to the pattern by which the outcome is contagious. Following the robust Lagrange-multiplier test strategy of Anselin, Bera, Florax, & Yoon (1996), which offered tests of spatial-autoregressive lag or of error against independence, robust to the presence of the other autoregressive process, we derive and evaluate the performance of a robust Lagrange-multiplier test for spatial-autoregression (contagion) against independence, which is robust to the presence of unobserved (uncontrolled/unmodeled) correlated-shocks distributed across units identically to the pattern of contagion (along with the symmetric robust test for spatially correlated shocks robust to autoregressive contagion). The test results are constructive and can be highly informative in offering direct & more-definitive answer than heretofore possible to the question posed by Galton's Problem, common shocks or contagion?.
VOLUME ONE Part One: Introduction: The Challenges of and an Approach to Empirical Analysis in Soc... more VOLUME ONE Part One: Introduction: The Challenges of and an Approach to Empirical Analysis in Social Science Multicausality, Context-Conditionality, and Endogeneity - Robert Franzese Puzzles, Proverbs, and Omega Matrices: The Scientific and Social Significance of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models (EITM) - Jim Granato and Frank Scioli Statistical Backwards Induction: A Simple Method for Estimating Recursive Strategic Models - Muhammet Ali Bas, Curtis Signorino and Robert Walker Part Two: Measurement 2a. Measurement & Measurement Error, Missing Data: Toward Theories of Data: The State of Political Methodology - Christopher Achen Measurement - Simon Jackman Measurement Error across Disciplines - Robert Groves Enhancing the Validity and Cross-Cultural Comparability of Measurement in Survey Research - Gary King et al. Analyzing Incomplete Political Science Data: An Alternative Algorithm for Multiple Imputation - Gary King et al. 2b. Measurement Applications: Extract from Congress: A Political-Economic History of Roll Call Voting - Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal Democracy as a Latent Variable - Simon Jackman and Shawn Treier Dynamic Representation - James Stimson, Michael MacKuen and Robert Erikson VOLUME TWO Part Three: The Foundational Multivariate-Regression Model and Models for Limited & Qualitative Dependent Variables 3a. Use & Interpretation of Multivariate-Regression Models: Elementary Regression Theory and Social Science Practice - Christopher Achen 3b. Use & Interpretation of Limited & Qualitative Dependent-Variable Models: Extracts from Unifying Political Methodology - Gary King Extracts from Generalized Linear Models - Jeff Gill Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation - Gary King, Michael Tomz and Jason Wittenberg 3c. Estimation and Inference in the Bayesian Paradigm: Single-Parameter Models - Jeff Gill Pooling Disparate Observations - Larry Bartels Estimation and Inference Are Missing Data Problems: Unifying Social Science Statistics via Bayesian Simulation - Simon Jackman Part Four: Heterogeneity and Heterogeneous Effects 4a. Unit & Period "Fixed Effects": Dirty Pool - Donald Green, Soo Yeon Kim and David Yoon Throwing Out the Baby with the Bath Water: A Comment on Green, Kim, and Yoon - Nathaniel Beck and Jonathan Katz Problematic Choices: Testing for Correlated Unit Specific Effects in Panel Data - Vera Troeger VOLUME THREE 4b. Interaction & Nonlinear Models: Theory to Practice - Cindy Kam and Robert Franzese Multiple Hands on the Wheel: Empirically Modeling Partial Delegation and Shared Control of Monetary Policy in the Open and Institutionalized Economy - Robert Franzese 4c. Random-Coefficient/Hierarchical/Multilevel Models: Causal Heterogeneity in Comparative Research: A Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling Approach - Bruce Western Modeling Multilevel Data Structures - Marco Steenbergen and Bradford Jones Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Poststratification: State-Level Estimates from National Polls - David Park, Andrew Gelman and Joseph Bafumi Part Five: Dynamic Models Selections 5a. Models for Temporal Dependence: Comparing Dynamic Specifications: The Case of Presidential Approval - Nathaniel Beck Taking Time Seriously - Suzanna De Boef and Luke Keele Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable - Nathaniel Beck, Jonathan Katz and Richard Tucker Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data - David Carter and Curtis Signorino Time Is of the Essence: Event History Models in Political Science - Janet Box-Steffensmeier and Bradford Jones VOLUME FOUR 5b. Models for Cross-UnitInterdependence: Empirical Models of Spatial Interdependence - Robert Franzese and Jude Hays Network Analysis and Political Science - Michael Ward, Katherine Stovel and Audrey Sacks Inferential Network Analysis with Exponential Random Graph Models - Skyler Cranmer and Bruce Desmarais Spatial- and Spatiotemporal-Autoregressive Probit Models of Interdependent Binary Outcomes - Robert Franzese, Jude Hays and Scott Cook 5c. Models for Time-Series-Cross-Section and Panel Data: Regression in Space and Time: A Statistical Essay - James Stimson Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models in Political Science - Gregory Wawro Modeling Dynamics in Time-Series-Cross-Section Political Economy Data - Nathaniel Beck and Jonathan Katz Beyond Fixed versus Random Effects: A Framework for Improving Substantive and Statistical Analysis of Panel, Time-Series Cross-Sectional, and Multilevel Data - Brandon Bartels Part Six: Endogeneity and Causal Inference Selections 6a. Instrumental-Variables Methods: Instrumental and `Quasi-Instrumental' Variables - Larry Bartels Instrumental Variables Estimation in Political Science: A Readers' Guide - Allison Sovey and Donald Green Model Specification in Instrumental-Variables Regression - Thad Dunning VOLUME FIVE 6b. Full-Information Maximum-Likelihood (FIML) Methods: Endogeneity and Structural Equation…
... Wage Bargaining Systems in the Single European Currency Area-David Soskice and Torben Iversen... more ... Wage Bargaining Systems in the Single European Currency Area-David Soskice and Torben Iversen 107-129 6. Strategic Wage Setting in a Monetary Union-Lila Cavillari 131-145 7. Interest Groups, Enlargement of the EMU and Labor Market Reform-Michael Neugart 147-164 ...
Spatial/Spatiotemporal interdependence-i.e., that the outcomes, actions, or choices of some unit-... more Spatial/Spatiotemporal interdependence-i.e., that the outcomes, actions, or choices of some unit-times depend on those of others-is substantively and theoretically ubiquitous and central in binary outcomes of interest across the social sciences. However, most empirical applications omit spatial interdependence and, at best, treat temporal dependence as nuisance to be "kludged"; indeed, even theoretical and substantive discussion usually ignores (inter)dependence. Moreover, in the few contexts where spatial interdependence has been acknowledged or emphasized, such as in the socialnetwork and policy-diffusion literatures, empirical models either do not fully reflect the simultaneity of the outcomes across units, or they do not recognize the endogeneity of the spatial lags which are used (appropriately) to model the interdependence. This paper notes and explains some of the severe challenges posed by spatiotemporal interdependence in binary-outcome models and then follows recent spatial-econometric advances to suggest two simulation-based approaches for surmounting the computational intensiveness of these models: classical recursive-importance-sampling (RIS) or Bayesian Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC). Serial autocorrelation in binary outcomes raises essentially the same challenges, so these strategies offer effective approach temporal dependence as well. We provide Monte-Carlo comparisons of the performance of these alternative estimators for spatial probit, including comparisons to estimation-strategies blind to or naïve about (inter)dependence-i.e., omitting spatial lags or including them but treating them as exogenous regressors in standard probit estimation-and then we show how to apply related simulation methods to calculate estimated spatial effects of hypothetical shocks in terms of outcomes or probabilities of outcomes (with associated confidence/credibility regions) rather than only in parameter-estimate or latent-variable terms as in all prior spatial-probit applications. We illustrate with applications to U.S. states' adoptions of legislative term-limits and to great-power decisions to enter World War I.
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Papers by Robert J Franzese