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Strategic Insights No. 34
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© Risk Intelligence
RED SEA/GULF OF ADEN
Threats, prospects and trends in
Eritrean-Yemeni waters
DR. AWET WELDEMICHAEL
HIOB LUDOLF GUEST PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURG; FERNAND BRAUDEL FELLOW, UNIVERSITÉ PARIS DIDEROT - PARIS 7
Between November and December 1995, Eritrea and Yemen briefly fought over southern
Red Sea islands and islets that an Arbitral Tribunal at The Hague described as “uniformly
unattractive, waterless, and habitable only
with great difficulty.” Nevertheless, roughly
located between 14°10’N and 13°35’N and
from 42°35’E to 43°E, and a mere 55 nautical
miles north of Bab el-Mandeb where the Red
Sea funnels into the Indian Ocean, the strategic significance of these archipelagos belies
their size and inhabitability. The EritreanYemeni conflict accordingly had potentially
far-reaching and disastrous consequences to
the international sea lanes passing through
that chokepoint.
Although the dispute was settled through
arbitration in 1998/1999, tensions continue, including accusations of piratical acts
against traditional fishermen. Coupled with
the region’s fast changing political and security dynamics, on the one hand these effects
may complicate international efforts to curb
spiralling piracy in the waters off the greater
Horn of Africa. On the other hand, the unprecedented militarisation of those waters
to contain piracy is proving detrimental to
the countries of the southern Red Sea and is
bound to worsen an already fragile region.
From the roots to the outcome
The end of the Cold War had visible local effects in the
Greater Horn of Africa. In May 1990, South and North
Yemen united under President Ali Abdellah Saleh in
Sana’a. A year later, Eritreans defeated the mighty
Ethiopian forces and became independent (formalised
in 1993). The two immediately started to aggressively
monitor what they considered to be their waters in the
southern Red Sea, harassing, arresting, and expelling
each other’s traditional fishermen for trespassing into
their waters, as well as capturing Egyptian illegal fishers. Eritrea and Yemen granted overlapping concessions for oil exploration and engaged in what some observers considered to be competing tourism projects.
Sana’a granted a German company a contract to build
a hotel and a scuba diving facility in Hanish Kebir, which
started in earnest in late 1995. On November 11th, Eritrea issued its own claim to the islands and gave Yemen a one-month ultimatum to withdraw its forces and
halt the construction project. Yemen responded by reinforcing its garrison and preventing an Eritrean military
landing in the islet. With reinforced units, Eritrea controlled most of the disputed islands after twelve Eritrean
and unknown number of Yemeni soldiers were killed,
and over 200 Yemeni soldiers were taken prisoners of
war.
With the international shipping lanes endangered, commercial vessels passing through the area were warned
to avoid the Hanish archipelago. A flurry of diplomatic
intervention prevented further escalation and led to the
May 21th 1996 “Agreement of Principles” that set the
stage for arbitration.
Ruling on rival claims
For Asmara and Sana’a, it was a winner-takes-all sovereignty dispute over the islands with direct bearing on
investment, underwater mineral resource potentials
and other localised national interests like traditional
fishing rights. Signing up to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) on December
10th 1982, the Yemen Arab Republic claimed “national
sovereignty over all the islands in the Red Sea and
the Indian Ocean which have been its dependencies
since the period when the Yemen and the Arab countries were a Turkish administration.” Acceding to UNCLOS in 1986, Ethiopia (of which Eritrea was a part
until 1993) for its part protested the Yemeni declaration
and claimed the Hanish archipelago for itself. Since
Turkey relinquished its rights to Ottoman possessions
at the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, however, questions of
sovereignty over these southern Red Sea islands were
neither pursued nor adequately addressed. While sovereignty of these islands thus remained in limbo, fishermen on both sides of the coast fished freely in the
area to an extent that both Eritrea and Yemen sought to
substantiate their claims at The Hague by arguing that
these waters had been their traditional fishing grounds.
Moreover, Eritrean independence fighters (from Ethiopia) used the islands as staging grounds to supply their
forces inside Eritrea and harass the powerful modern
Ethiopian navy with small speedboats mounted with
machineguns – the equivalent of maritime ‘technicals’.
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After reviewing historical maps and documents, and
listening to depositions and oral defences from the Eritrean and Yemeni legal teams on competing notions
of sovereignty, historical titles, and exercise of authority, the five-judge Tribunal rendered its verdict in two
phases. On October 9th 1998, it awarded Eritrea the
Mohabbakah islands (including the surrounding islets),
and what are generally referred to as the Haycock Islands and the South West Rocks. Yemen was granted
the Zuqur-Hanish islands (and surrounding islets as far
south as Suyul Hanish), Jabal al-Tayr, Jabal Zubayr
and the surrounding islets and rocks. In the second
phase, the Tribunal determined the Eritrean-Yemeni
maritime boundary on December 17th 1999. While distinct from each other, the awarding of sovereignty and
boundary determination generally overlapped. Starting
from a mid-sea point at the gates of Bab el-Mandeb
in the south, the Eritrean-Yemeni maritime boundary
today is made up of slightly zigzagging straight lines
toward 15:43N and 41:35E, which places the international shipping lanes mostly on the Yemeni side.
Rivalries and regional security
dynamics
Attendant political and security fluidity and accordingly
intractable alliances, rivalries and enmities have characterised the Horn of Africa and south Arabia during
© Risk Intelligence
the tumultuous turn of the 21st century. Sudan’s destabilising Islamic expansionism compelled Eritrea to
severe diplomatic ties in 1994. And Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Egypt and Uganda became the United States’ “frontline
states” to contain Khartoum. Suddenly, a 1998 border
incident between Eritrea and Ethiopia rudely ended
their short-lived honeymoon whereupon the two fought
the bloodiest conventional war the region has seen. Active hostilities ceased in 2000, but tensions fester on
because of Ethiopian reneging on a binding and final
ruling of a mutually agreed upon boundary commission
(the EEBC).
In October 2002, a loose Ethiopian–Sudanese–Yemeni
alliance seemed to take shape against Eritrea. Yemen’s
acquisition of North Korean scud missiles in December 2002 only heightened tensions. With Eritrea backing Sudanese insurgencies (in the east as well as in
Darfur while the 20-year-old southern rebellion had not
yet been settled), however, the alliance fizzled amidst
Khartoum’s foot-dragging and Sana’a’s caution in dealing with Asmara – as we will see shortly.
Meanwhile, Iranian attempts to establish some influence in the Red Sea are being contested by two rival
corners. First, Sunni dominated Arab countries of the
Middle East see Iranian projection of power in the region as a Shiite attempt at subverting their faith and
The boundary line ruling from the Hague Tribunal
[Source: Permanent Court of Arbitration]
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civilization. While most Arab countries quietly introduced domestic mechanisms to restrict possible Shiite
expansion, others actively sought to contain Tehran’s
hegemonic pretensions. Second, having long considered Iran as its most potent threat, Israel aggressively
monitors and seeks to restrict Iranian encroachment.
The two are competing for influence in the Red Sea
region.
Amidst this rivalry, Eritrea – frustrated with Western
countries’ failure live up to their promise as guarantors
of the peace agreement that Ethiopia rejected – sought
ties with Iran. Since Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki
visited Tehran in mid-2008 to cement a two-year courting, their relations have been shrouded in secrecy.
Speculations abound that Iran has been using Eritrea
as a forward base for its Red Sea strategy, including
port calls of Iranian anti-piracy vessels and its 2009
slow sailing fleet to the Mediterranean.
© Risk Intelligence
Traditional fishing
According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), of the estimated 4 million fishing boats globally at the end of 2004, about 1.3 million were decked
and mechanised, out of which 86 percent were in Asia
and 1.3 percent in Africa.
Given the overall poverty of both sides of the southern
Red Sea and northern Gulf of Aden, it is safe to assume
that an insignificant number of the fishing fleet there are
decked. Traditional fishing crafts in those waters are,
thus, open feluccas, sambuks, or ramas, all made locally out of wood and with loading capacity of no more
than twelve seafarers. Although FAO estimates suggest that two thirds of the un-decked boats were operated by sail and oars, a growing number of vessels in
the fishing fleet around Bab el-Mandeb are powered
with outboard engines of varying horsepower.
Using gillnet, handline and longline fishing techniques,
artisanal fishermen in southern Red Sea meet family
(often extended family) subsistence needs with commercial supply that rarely extends far beyond the local
port towns. With basic communication technologies,
and limited capacity of the local navies to offer timely
assistance to fishermen in distress, the latter continue
to find safety and support in fishing in large groups.
And so it is not uncommon that many traditional fishing
boats are spotted in close proximity to each other.
The Yemeni coast guard on patrol
[Source: Arabian Supply Chain]
Adding to the long swirling claim that Israel maintains a
listening post and supply base in Eritrean islands, The
Sunday Times reported in April 2009 that Iran and Israel were running rival intelligence operations from Eritrea. In November 2009, the French News24 channel
took this unconfirmed information a step further when it
quoted an Eritrean opposition source based in Ethiopia
as saying that the Houthi rebels in northern Yemen received arms from Iran through Eritrea. And as recently
as June 2011, Saudi Arabian Al-Arabiya TV aired a
long interview with a Kuwaiti professor who alleged that
Iran has bases in Eritrean islands where the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard also trains Shiite youth from the
neighbouring countries. Given the ongoing instability
in Yemen and its fluctuating relations with Eritrea, the
possible spillover effects of Israeli-Iranian intelligence
rivalry does not augur well for either country and the
freedom of maritime navigation through their strategic
waters. Nor does it hold pro-mise to vulnerable traditional fishing communities that may also be exploited
by maritime criminals and also face risks during national and international responses.
Sailors and prickly armed guards with limited or no experience in those waters have reported – and variously
responded to – dangerous-looking formations of many
small boats. For their part, traditional fishermen in the
Greater Horn of Africa waters have complained of big
commercial ships either tearing their fishing nets, their
waves wrecking their small boats or even deliberately
spraying them with hot water.
Past and ongoing active conflicts have left the region
with an abundance of firearms of all sizes and shapes,
which makes traditional fishing boat formations rather
tricky for suspicious commercial navies passing by. On
the south-eastern side of the Red Sea, for example,
automatic weapons are as common among Yemenis
as are jembiyas (the curved traditional daggers), and
rocket launchers and machineguns are openly traded
in Sana’a’s outskirts. With an estimated 8–12 million
guns in civilian possession (Yemen features prominently among the top ten in the world), the BBC once quoted
a Yemeni professor as saying, “Just as you have your
tie, the Yemeni will carry his gun.”
In Eritrea, by contrast, private possession of all firearms
is prohibited. But government enforcement cannot be
expected to be watertight and more so in the high seas
that are infested with gunrunners, contraband smugglers and human traffickers traversing the porous maritime borders. 2007 estimates of the Geneva-based
Small Arms Survey, for example, indicate that there
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© Risk Intelligence
were a total of 20,000 guns in private hands in Eritrea,
which puts it low among the bottom ten in the world.
Generally, moreover, with supply outstripping demand
and insurgencies flaring up across both sides of southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, prices of weapons of
war in that region have plummeted, making gun possession a matter of want.
The contagion of Gulf of Aden piracy
During the October 1998 award of sovereignty over
the disputed Eritrean-Yemeni islands, the Tribunal impressed on the two sides that its awarding of “such sovereignty is not inimical to, but rather entails, the perpetuation of the traditional fishing rights in the region
and 2005, Eritrea and Yemen officially exchanged each
other’s nationals arrested for illegal fishing.
Capturing each other’s traditional fishermen continued
unabated. But when private Yemeni media reported in
late 2009 that “Eritrean authorities continue[d] to arrest Yemeni fishing boats and harass their crews,” on
November 16th official media (SABA) reported the alleged arrest of Yemeni fishermen and confiscation of
their equipment as something perpetrated by pirates,
signalling government attempt to deescalate simmering tensions caused by preceding allegations that Eritrea was an accessory to Iran providing weapons to
the Houthis.
Fishing vessels in the region may look like
dangerous formations
[Source: NATO]
around the Hanish and Zuqar and the islands of Jabal
al-Tayr and the Zubayr group.” Given that these are now
sovereign Yemeni territories, the Tribunal placed the
onus on Yemen to “ensure that the traditional fishing regime of free access and enjoyment for the fishermen of
both Eritrea and Yemen shall be preserved for the benefit of the lives and livelihoods of this poor and industrious
order of men ... including free access and enjoyment for
the fishermen of both Eritrea and Yemen.” Interpreting
that as an equal right to fish in each other’s waters, Yemeni fishermen crossed into the Eritrean side only to be
arrested by the Eritrean navy. The Yemeni navy reciprocated in kind by arresting Eritrean traditional fishermen
in waters that the Arbitral Tribunal awarded to Yemen but
allowed for Eritrean traditional fishing. Twice, in 2002
This type of reported “piracy” is different from the piracy
plaguing the Gulf of Aden and to a lesser extent the
Red Sea. But it may complicate regional and international efforts to curb it. Besides numerous “suspicious
approaches”, MaRisk recorded 16 Somali pirate attacks
in southern Red Sea during the first half of 2011. Indian
Ocean monsoons displaced pirate activities back to
waters just north of the heavy presence of international
navies that IMB reported 14 such cases after May 20th
alone. Almost all attacks involved the use of firearms.
Lucrative ransoms that the pirates are collecting may
be luring some individual Yemenis into the risky business of piracy as American Assistant Secretary of State
for African Affairs Johnnie Carson told journalists in
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London in March 2011. But there is no evidence to suggest that Yemeni (or Eritrean) traditional fishermen are
involved in piratical activities. The Yemeni government,
like its Eritrean counterpart, does not negotiate with pirates. Nor do Sana’a and Asmara allow armed private
security guards into their waters. Both have relatively
small but agile navies that have been correspondingly
aggressive in asserting their control – smugglers not
withstanding – and can be relied upon to help in the
prevention of piracy from becoming the menace that it is
in the Gulf of Aden. Besides numerous speedboats and
possibly two frigates each, a 2011 report shows Eritrean
navy consisting of the Super Dvora Mk II and Osa II
class patrol boats whereas its Yemeni counterpart has
Tarantul I class corvettes and Osa class missile boats.
Moreover, Eritrea has many well-positioned islands, an
advanced American-built naval base in Massawa, and a
dry dock left behind by the Soviets in Asseb.
International counter-piracy measures
Nevertheless, repeated appeals by seafarers for the
International Maritime Organization’s endorsement of,
and the commercial navies’ active use of, armed private security guards on board ships, are transforming
the scope and degree of militarisation of the southern
Red Sea and Gulf of Aden waters that has been spearheaded by foreign governments. The deployment of
private military companies in an already fragile security
environment is having – and will continue to have – unpredictable and differing consequences.
Several such companies – Lotus, Hart, PVI among others – have outsourced protection of ships that hire them
to the Yemeni naval forces within the latter’s waters.
Acting almost exclusively on instructions and operational details provided by such companies, the Yemeni
forces are doing so to the detriment of their mandate
– counter-terrorism, control of smugglers and human
traffickers, and overall defence of Yemeni sovereignty.
Moreover, the non-transparent wheeling and dealing
with security companies, while undisclosed sums of
money change hands, is likely to foster corruption that
would undermine the credibility and capacity of the Yemeni navy and coastguard to meet domestic and international expectations.
In a recent case, Protection Vessels International (PVI)
committed a grave violation of local and international
laws when its personnel deliberately occupied the uninhabited Eritrean islands of Ramia and Harmil between
November and December 2010 and made a disguised
port call at Massawa with hidden illegal weapons. When
Eritrean navy intercepted and captured four of PVI’s
British personnel, it touched off a consequential diplomatic row between Eritrea and the UK, which was only
resolved six months later with Qatari government intercession.
© Risk Intelligence
Conclusion
Although increasingly engine powered and armed with
firearms, artisanal fishermen in southern Red Sea are
generally averse to piracy as it undermines their harsh
but otherwise stable livelihoods. The Eritrean and Yemeni states’ relatively better – although varying – control of their coasts also denies potential pirates the
necessary overland safe havens to bring their catch to
anchor. Their navies have been aggressively monitoring their respective waters with a considerable degree
of success.
But these positive scenarios are threatened and likely
to change for a number of reasons. The festering political uncertainty in Yemen does not bode well for the
security of the whole region. Nor do Eritrea’s external
relations that involve Ethiopia’s declared goal of “pursuing regime change in Asmara” and the debilitating
December 2009 UN Security Council sanctions.
The unsustainably expensive militarisation of the regional waters, devoid of local capacity building and
parallel pursuit of credible inland solutions, has a longer-term destabilising effect. In their impetuous, tactical
and short-sighted military responses at sea to Somali
piracy, foreign governments, commercial navies and
contracted private security companies are introducing
practices that will inevitably get out of control and backfire. National and international actors passing through
traditional fishing areas in southern Red Sea (up to 100
miles north of Bab el-Mandeb) should err on the side
of caution in telling pirates from fishermen lest their actions turn the latter into the former.