THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: Implications for Planning Cities and Regions BRIAN. H. ROBERTS EMERITUS PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF CANBERRA URBAN FRONTIERS © Urban Frontiers 2015 The Third Industrial Revolution and Planning In 1781, James Watt patented the rotary steam engine that became the driving force behind the first industrial revolution. Within 30 years, steam engines were driving the first trains, boats and farm machinery. Today, we are at the beginning of a new industrial revolution: the Third Industrial Revolution. This revolution is driven not by an a physical engine, but by technologies of the digital engine of Internet, renewable energy and 3D printing. The transformations that will be generated by the Third Industrial Revolution (TIR) will change almost everything we do, make, use and plan in the future. Planning for the age of the TIR will be challenging, as the limits and boundaries of it are not defined by the dimensions of space and time, but by imagination and the power of the mind. Planning for the future of cities and regions must now step outside the limitations of geographic space, and embrace the dimensions of cyberspace. Planning for development has just become more difficult. Brian Roberts, Author Working Paper No I Urban Frontiers About this Presentation  Jeremy Rifkin, one of the leading thinkers on the third Industrial revolution, has said: “The price of energy and food is climbing, unemployment remains high, the housing market has tanked, consumer and government debt is soaring, and the recovery is slowing. Facing the prospect of a second collapse of the global economy, humanity is desperate for a sustainable economic game plan to take us into the future”.  This series of slides presents an overview of the way the third Industrial Revolution (TIR) will impact on the way we plan regions and cities in the future. The first revolution was local. The second was global. The third is Glocal. It will touch every aspect of the way we plan and live. It will transform the way and where we produce things; the economies and landscapes of cities and regions; the resources and the energy we use and produce; and how we work and travel. It bring about a social transformation in all societies and hopefully led us on a pathway towards a more sustainable development model. The TIR raises many social, economic, social and ethical issues and questions that governments and societies will need to address, plan and manage carefully. Possible strategies for cities and regions to plan and manage for the Third Industrial Revolution are found on the final slide. More details on these and the TIR can be found in the working paper The Third Industrial Revolution: Implications for Planning Cities and Regions available on the Urban Frontiers Web Site. THE FIRST INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION LOCAL       Began in Britain in the late 1700s Manufacturing shifted from individualised cottage industry production to industrialised factories engage in larger scale production Development of canals, and the steam engine improved the mechanization of production and transportation systems Transformation of the textile, iron and other industries – increased localised production Invention of the stock exchange led to the rise of banks, financiers and private investors Improvements in quality of life, but appalling factory workplace health and safety conditions, increased class segregation, inability to meet urbanization needs and disease outbreak. © Urban Frontiers 2015 1st Industrial Revolution - Energy, Technology Drivers and Development Outcomes Energy Technology Development THE SECOND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION GLOBAL        1870 – 1914, began in the United States of America Witnessed the expansion of electricity, petroleum and steel industries Inventions of the telephone, light bulb and radio waves Job shift from manufacturing to services Technological advances in transportation including automobile, aerial and steamboat Emergence of labour unions due to long working hours and child exploitation Slum development due to urbanization, led to new laws and improved relationships between government and people © Urban Frontiers 2015 nd 2 Industrial Revolution Energy, Technology Drivers and Development Outcomes Energy Technology Development THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION GLOCAL          Development of the Internet, fast communications and meta data Falling marginal costs of manufacturing, leading to re-shoring of industries Economies of scale, low labour cost and technology used in manufacturing developing economies no longer an advantage. Beginning of de-industrialization occurring in middle income countries Technological advances in renewable energy; wind, solar, resources Less reliance on grid energy supply, more localised collection and distribution Robotics, 3D printing, advanced CAD/CAM manufacturing associated with local specialised manufacturing Trade and localised uncapped potential for internet, trade, transition and manufacturing Change to land-use development and planning; up instead of out, cluster and technology hubs, mixed use development Significant move to collaboration between cities and decentralization © Urban Frontiers 2015 nd 3 Industrial Revolution Energy, Technology Drivers and Development Outcomes Energy Hydrogen Technology Development ? There are Many Dimensions of 3 D Printing Re-localization Glocalization Source; Taylor 2015 http://3dprintingindustry.com/2014/02/28/trend-evolution-3d-printing-trends-part-2/ THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION A CALL FOR RETHINKING THE PLANNING OF CITIES AND REGIONS “Uber, the world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles. Facebook, the world’s most popular media owner, creates no content. Alibaba, the most valuable retailer, has no inventory. And Airbnb, the world’s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate. Something interesting is happening.” Tom Goodwin 2015 The third industrial revolution will have a dramatic impact on the way we plan and develop cities and regions. Where we were once solely concerned with the planning and management of physical places, spaces, social order and the production and activities in them, the third industrial revolution will involve learning to plan and manage in a virtual age. The third industrial revolution will affect every aspect of planning in the built, social, natural, economic, governance and technological environments. Combining the physical and virtual requires nothing less than a total rethink of the way we plan and manage the future of cities and regions. © Urban Frontiers 2015 THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION THE BIG IMPACTS ON PLANNING      Re-shoring, localization, glocalisation and growth of small integrated technology-based industries and services supporting more designer and personalised needs New materials, technologies and designs revolutionizing the production of buildings, infrastructure, living environments, opening up new opportunities never before possible A workforce that is more information and knowledge dependent and less place-base dependent in the nature of work, will affect the location, nature and times which we work A more automated, robotic, and technology dependent working, living and travel environment The potential for urban and rural communities to fracture and result in severe disparities between the technology and wealth endowed, and the rest. The implications of this situation threatens all the benefits the third industrial revolution could bring to future society. © Urban Frontiers 2015 THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION LAND-USE PLANNING: IMPLICATIONS      Urban Sprawl. Source: Windows on our World http://woow.philsllvn.co.uk/windows/   Decentralisation and growth of secondary systems of cities Increasing urbanisation and growth of poly centric and corridor cities, and resilient urban villages Specialization of employment with focus on industry cluster developments and innovation precincts End of sprawl development, increased high rise development and urban grey areas regeneration Increased mixed use, integrated and virtual reality development Smart transport and logistics with significantly reduced travel time between work and home Greater green design, space and local amenity © Urban Frontiers 2015 THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION ECONOMIC PLANNING: IMPLICATIONS       Source: ECONOMIST 2013. Reshoring manufacturing: Coming home. Economist Magazine    Greater on-shore and localised production and manufacturing of many products, spare parts and services 3D printing revolutionising trade and consumption patterns A cash-less society individualized global access to capital, 24 hour share trading and investment advice Less space based, more virtual office place and formal employment. Education and learning will need to provide competencies and demand based skills, with youth, redundancy and mid career retraining experience gained from simulation and mentoring rather than formal instruction and learning Local economic development plans will need to be integrated with land-use, infrastructure, human resource development, environmental and technology planning Greater need for local economic risk management Trade and investment collaborations and partnerships between cities Greater use of crowd funding to support new industries and developments © Urban Frontiers 2015 THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION SOCIAL PLANNING: IMPLICATIONS   Flexible work environment with greater combination of work and socialization – the growth of the social business space Greater risk of rising income and wealth disparities arising Sharing Economy. Source: www.hhttp://www.milanosmartcity.org/joomla/sharing-economyl © Urban Frontiers 2015 THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING: IMPLICATIONS       PH Conditioner Skyscraper. Source: eVolo http://www.evolo.us/category/2013/  Renewable energies will replace fossilised fuels requiring replacement and retrofitting of energy networks Localised water capture, recovery and waste management systems will replace big systems Closing waste systems with the greater application of industrial ecology Green cities, buildings and interior design New materials developed from renewables will be stronger , more flexible and have a longer lifecycle leading to new possibilities in size and scale of ecodesigned buildings Greater attention to eco-banking and credit to support and fund habitat resilience Cities to keep and maintain environmental capital balance sheets as an off set to development and habitat loss © Urban Frontiers 2015 THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION LOGISTICS SYSTEMS: IMPLICATIONS     Arbeitskreid Future Logistics. Source: www.hamburglogistic.net/arbeitskreise/futurelogistics.html    Intelligent transport, integrated modalities and risk management systems Multi-modal logistics networks of transfer ports and hubs Smart delivery systems and shared smart applications: Uber, Airbnb, Facebook, Alibaba Localised warehousing of goods for 3D printing Common use warehouse and storage facilities Self navigating cars and transport movement systems Co-location of utility services permitting costs savings on construction, operations and maintenance © Urban Frontiers 2015 THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION TECHNOLOGY: IMPLICATIONS        Meta data and open source platforms for data access and value-adding 3D printing leading to localised production and re-emergence of new technology based cottages industries Wide ranging application of Nano technology Electric powered transportation Greater utilisation of the internet Increase in robotics and robotic technology 4th Technology revolution involving total systems integration Wireless Tehnology Source: Davies. 2000, UFS. Inc. Online at www.comics.com © Urban Frontiers 2015 THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION GOVERNANCE: IMPLICATIONS      A change in the model of governance from consultative, cooperative to collaborative governance (resource and information sharing) Greater devolution of government, urban services, maintenance and revenue management Local E-Plebiscites for local decision-making, policy development and budgeting Greater spatial and sector agency integrated budgeting, planning and financing E systems government, including one stop shops, open platform information systems and operations maintenance Source: http://www.qponics.com/corporate-governance/ © Urban Frontiers 2015 HOW SHOULD PLANNING SYSTEMS RESPOND TO THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION?  Acceptance that planning systems must be accommodating of the needs of the Physical and virtual world  Planning systems are no longer constrained by physical, legal and social boundaries. Planning cannot disregard the increasing influence of external and virtual factors in shaping the way we work and live and how this affects the way we develop cities and regions  The affect the growing trends and demands toward personalisation in fashion, design, entertainment, medicine, work and interest requires a planning system that encourages possibilities, rather than restricts options.  Planning systems can no longer be driven by rules that are outdated. They must be more demand and choice sensitive, address societal risks but encourage business risk, create market mechanism to foster change to sustainable development practices and consumption, and ensure informed debate about the ethics, value and benefits of technology as an agent of change for good. © Urban Frontiers 2015 PLANNING FOR THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION PROJECT   Urban frontiers is conducting an investigative study into The 3rd Industrial Revolution – What does it mean for Planning The objectives for the study Include are:     What are the drivers of the Third Industrial Revolution How will these impact on planning systems (economic, land-use, HRDM, Infrastructure and logistics, social, governance etc.) and practices that shape the development of cities and regions How responsive are current planning systems to supporting and managing the changes that will occur as the revolution unfolds What responses should governments and communities make to take advantage of the opportunities created by the third Industrial Revolution and how should the risks be managed © Urban Frontiers 2015 How Cities and Regions can Plan for the Third Industrial Revolution For cities and regions to Plan for the Third Industrial Revolution they will need to focus on:           Development of renewable energy strategies and technologies Knowledge Building and Educating Communities Integrated Planning System Developing Circular Economies Value Adding to Core Business Strategic Infrastructure Creating Collaborative Advantage Integrated logistics systems Becoming Smarter and More Creative Collaborative Governance Urban Frontiers welcomes comments, ideas and critiques on The Third Industrial Revolution – What does it mean for Planning which we will post on our blog for other to read. http://www.urbanfrontiers.com.au/#!blog/cn51 BRIAN. H. ROBERTS Emeritus Professor, URBAN FRONTIERS E: info@urbanfrontiers.com.au W: www.urbanfrontiers.com.au © Urban Frontiers 2015