Lghqwli|lqj dqg Lqwhusuhwlqj Frqyhujhqfh Foxvwhuv dfurvv
Hxursh
Oxlvd Fruudgr_
Urq Pduwlqh
Phoy|q Zhhnv=
56wk Mdqxdu| 5337
Devwudfw
Lq wklv sdshu zh h{dplqh wkh vsdwldo dqg whpsrudo glvwulexwlrq ri shu fdslwd lqfrph
dfurvv Hxursh1 Zh edvh rxu dqdo|vlv rq d foxvwhu phwkrgrorj| zklfk doorzv iru dq hq0
grjhqrxv vhohfwlrq ri uhjlrqdo foxvwhuv xvlqj d pxowlyduldwh whvw iru vwdwlrqdulw| zkhuh wkh
qxpehu dqg frpsrvlwlrq ri foxvwhuv duh ghwhuplqhg e| wkh dssolfdwlrq ri sdluzlvh whvwv
ri uhjlrqdo frqwudvwv1 Wr flufxpyhqw wkh sureohp ri krz wr lqwhusuhw wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri
uhvxowlqj frqyhujhqfh foxvwhuv zh frqvwuxfw d qxpehu ri whvwdeoh k|srwkhvhv edvhg xsrq
rughulqjv frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh qglqjv ri uhfhqw vwxglhv rq uhjlrqdo jurzwk dqg frqyhujhqfh1
Zh gr wklv xvlqj d vhw ri jhrjudsklfdo/ vrflr0ghprjudsklf dqg srolwlfdo lqglfdwruv phdvxu0
lqj frqwljxlw| dqg lqvwlwxwlrqdo vlplodulw|/ dffhvvlelolw|/ vshfldolvdwlrq/ uhjlrq vshflf ohyhov
ri djjorphudwlrq dqg uhjlrqdo fodvvlfdwlrq dffruglqj wr wkh Hxurshdq Xqlrq Vwuxfwxudo
Ixqg remhfwlyhv1 Rqh ri wkh frqwulexwlrqv ri rxu vwxg| lv d phwkrg zklfk idflolwdwhv wkh
lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wkh foxvwhu rxwfrphv rq wkh edvlv ri wkh idfwruv lghqwlhg deryh1 Xqolnh
suhylrxv vwxglhv/ zh suhvhqw rxu uhvxowv xvlqj d jhrjudsklf uhsuhvhqwdwlrq ri uhjlrqv dfurvv
Hxursh1
Nh|0Zrugv= Uhjlrqdo Frqyhujhqfh/ Sdluzlvh Uhjlrqdo Frpsdulvrq/ Qhz Hfrqrplf
Jhrjudsk|1
MHO= F84/ U44/ U481
W
Zh duh judwhixo wr Dqguhz Kduyh|/ Jhuqrw Grssohkrhu dqg Ydvfr Fduydokr iru wkhlu frpphqwv rq
wkh zrun1 Dfnqrzohgjhphqw= Wkh dxwkruv dfnqrzohgjh qdqfldo vxssruw iurp wkh Hfrqrplf dqg Vr0
fldo Uhvhdufk Frxqflo/ dzdug O46;58433;1 Fruuhvsrqglqj dxwkruv= Oxlvd Fruudgr dqg Phoy|q Zhhnv
hpdlo=oxlvd1fruudgrCxqlurpd51lw/ pz54:Chfrq1fdp1df1xn
_
Idfxow| ri Hfrqrplfv/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Urph Wru Yhujdwd1
Ghsduwphqw ri Jhrjudsk|/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fdpeulgjh1
=
Idfxow| ri Hfrqrplfv dqg Srolwlfv/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fdpeulgjh1
h
4
Lqwurgxfwlrq
zwk kdv uh0dsshduhg rq hfrqrplvwv* uhvhdufk djhqgd1 Dq
lpsruwdqw vwlpxoxv iru wklv uhylydo kdv ehhq wkh uhqhzhg lqwhuhvw lq wkh hpslulfv ri jurzwk/ dqg
hvshfldoo| lq wkh hylghqfh iru orqj0whup frqyhujhqfh ri shu fdslwd rxwsxw dqg lqfrphv ehwzhhq
qdwlrqv1 Wklv hpslulfdo ghedwh kdv lq wxuq surprwhg wkh uh0h{dplqdwlrq dqg uh0rulhqwdwlrq
ri jurzwk wkhru|1 Vwdqgdug qhrfodvvlfdo jurzwk prghov +Vrorz +4<89, dqg Vzdqq +4<89,,
srvwxodwh wkdw frxqwulhv zloo frqyhujh wr wkh vdph ohyho ri shu fdslwd lqfrph +rxwsxw, lq wkh
orqj uxq/ lqghshqghqwo| ri lqlwldo frqglwlrqv/ dv orqj dv wkhuh duh glplqlvklqj uhwxuqv wr fdslwdo
dqg oderxu/ dqg shuihfw glxvlrq ri whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh +wdnhq dv h{rjhqrxv,1 Krzhyhu/ wkh
suhglfwlrq ri wkh qhrfodvvlfdo prgho kdv dsshduhg lqfuhdvlqjo| dw rggv zlwk wkh odfn ri hylghqfh
iru lqwhuqdwlrqdo frqyhujhqfh dqg wkh yduldeoh qdwxuh ri wkh frqyhujhqfh surfhvv hyhq zlwklq
wkh lqgxvwuldolvhg jurxs ri frxqwulhv +Deudprylw} +4<;9,> Erowkr dqg Krowkdp +4<<5,,1
Ryhu wkh sdvw wzr ghfdghv d vr0fdoohg Qhz Jurzwk wkhru| kdv hphujhg +vhh/ iru h{dpsoh/
Urphu +4<;9,/ Oxfdv +4<;;,/ Eduur dqg Vdod0l0Pduwlq +4<<4,,1 Wklv iudphzrun h{whqgv wkh
fdqrqlfdo qhrfodvvlfdo prgho e| doorzlqj iru lqfuhdvlqj uhwxuqv lq wkh surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq lq
rughu wr ghwhuplqh wkh +hqgrjhqrxv, orqj0whup jurzwk udwh1 Dowkrxjk wkhuh h{lvwv d qxpehu
ri yduldqwv ri wklv qhz hqgrjhqrxv jurzwk wkhru|/ doo shuplw d zlghu vhw ri srvvlelolwlhv zlwk
uhjdug wr frqyhujhqfh ehkdylrxu1
Vwxglhv e| Urphu +4<;9,/ Oxfdv +4<;;, dqg Jurvvpdq dqg Khospdq +4<<4,/ lqwhu dold/
vxjjhvw wkdw xqghu frqglwlrqv ri pdunhw frpshwlwlrq dqg lqfuhdvlqj uhwxuqv wr dffxpxodeoh
idfwruv vxfk dv kxpdq fdslwdo/ frqyhujhqfh fdqqrw vsrqwdqhrxvo| wdnh sodfh1 D qxpehu ri
rwkhu wkhruhwlfdo vwxglhv lq wkh duhd ri hfrqrplf jhrjudsk| dqg uhjlrqdo hfrqrplf wkhru|
kdyh irfxvvhg rq wkh whqvlrq ehwzhhq fhqwudo dqg shulskhudo duhdv +vhh Ixmlwd/ Nuxjpdq/
dqg Yhqdeohv +4<<<,/ Ixmlwd dqg Wklvvh +5334, dqg Nuxjpdq +4<<4,,> rq wkh hhfw ri uhjlrqdo
h{whuqdolwlhv/ lqfoxglqj frqjhvwlrq hhfwv dqg lqfuhdvlqj uhwxuqv iurp djjorphudwlrq +Fkhvkluh
dqg Fduerqdur +4<;<,,> rq wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq orfdwlrq dqg wudqvsruwdwlrq frvwv +Olpdr
dqg Yhqdeohv +5334,,> dqg rq wkh uroh HX lqwhuyhqwlrqv wkdw vkrxog doorz ghsuhvvhg uhjlrqv
wr vwuhqjwkhq wkhlu hqgrzphqw ri surgxfwlyh nqrzohgjh dqg ri U)G dqg wr fdwfk xs zlwk wkh
ulfkhu rqhv +Erogulq dqg Fdqryd +5334,,1 Lqghhg/ wkhvh qhz jurzwk yduldqwv +lqfoxglqj wkdw
e| Eduur dqg Vdod0l0Pduwlq +4<<8,, lpso| frqglwlrqdo frqyhujhqfh e| doorzlqj iru glhuhqw
lqlwldo frqglwlrqv ehwzhhq frxqwulhv +lqvwlwxwlrqv/ hfrqrplf vwuxfwxuhv/ wdvwhv/ hwf1,> ru foxe
frqyhujhqfh ehwzhhq frxqwulhv zlwk vlplodu vwuxfwxudo frqglwlrqv dqg2ru dprqjvw zklfk wkhuh
duh whfkqrorjlfdo vslooryhuv +vhh Ehuwrod +4<<6,,1 Wkxv/ frqglwlrqdo frqyhujhqfh vwloo lpsolhv
glhuhqw ghjuhhv ri frqyhujhqfh zlwk srruhu frxqwulhv jurzlqj idvwhu wkdq ulfkhu rqhv/ zkhq
rwkhu uhohydqw idfwruv duh frqwuroohg iru14
Li zh eholhyh lq wkh rqh0vhfwru qhrfodvvlfdo jurzwk prghov zlwk h{rjhqrxv whfkqrorjlfdo
fkdqjh wkhq zh fdq xvh wudglwlrqdo xqfrqglwlrqdo frqyhujhqfh phwkrgv1 Li rq wkh rwkhu
kdqg zh eholhyh wkdw frqyhujhqfh vkrxog eh irxqg dprqj uhjlrqv wkdw duh uhodwlyho| vlplodu wr
hdfk rwkhu lq whupv ri hfrqrplf/ srolwlfdo ru jhrjudsklfdo idfwruv/ wkhq fohduo| xqfrqglwlrqdo
frqyhujhqfh phwkrgv duh qrw dssursuldwh/ vlqfh doo nlqg ri frxqwulhv duh srrohg wrjhwkhu zlwk0
rxw dffrxqwlqj iru frpprq ru frxqwu|0vshflf hhfwv1 Lq wklv frqwh{w d qxpehu ri lvvxhv
duh fhqwudo1 Iluvw/ li zh frqvlghu wkh h{lvwhqfh ri pxowlsoh vwhdg| vwdwhv +vhh/ iru h{dpsoh/
Gxuodxi dqg Mrkqvrq +4<<5,, wkhuh lv wkh txhvwlrq ri krz wkhvh vwdwhv dqg wkhlu frpsrvlwlrq
duh lghqwlhg1 Wzr srodu srvlwlrqv duh edvhg xsrq d sulrul lghqwlfdwlrq ri erwk wkh qxpehu
dqg frpsrvlwlrq ri uhjlphv/ yhuvxv d vwdwlvwlfdo dssurdfk zklfk doorzv iru hqgrjhqrxv ghwhu0
Vlqfh wkh plg04<;3v orqj0whup jur
4
Iru dq dqdo|vlv ri wkh phwkrgrorjlfdo lpsolfdwlrqv ri wkh qhz jurzwk hylghqfh vhh Whpsoh +4<<<,1
4
plqdwlrq yld d foxvwhulqj dojrulwkp1 Vhfrqg/ wkhuh lv wkh txhvwlrq ri vfdoh/ e| zklfk zh phdq
wkdw/ iru d jlyhq vhw ri remhfwlyhv/ wkh dssursuldwh vl}h dqg khwhurjhqhlw| ri wkh furvv0vhfwlrqdo
xqlw zloo olnho| ydu|1 Wklv lv sduwlfxoduo| uhohydqw lq wkh vwxg| ri frqyhujhqfh dowkrxjk/ zlwk
wkh h{fhswlrq ri wkh zrun ri Erogulq dqg Fdqryd +5334,/ lw kdv ehhq ljqruhg lq wkh olwhudwxuh1
Rxu dlp lq wklv sdshu lv wr h{whqg wklv erg| ri olwhudwxuh e| surylglqj d uhsuhvhqwdwlrq
ri wkh vsdwldo glvwulexwlrq ri uhjlrqdo dqg qdwlrqdo shu fdslwd lqfrph dfurvv Hxursh1 Zh edvh
rxu dqdo|vlv rq wkh foxvwhu phwkrg lqwurgxfhg e| Krelmq dqg Iudqvhv +5333, zklfk doorzv
iru dq hqgrjhqrxv vhohfwlrq ri uhjlrqdo foxvwhuv xvlqj d pxowlyduldwh whvw iru vwdwlrqdulw|1
Wkh qxpehu dqg frpsrvlwlrq ri foxvwhuv duh ghwhuplqhg e| wkh dssolfdwlrq ri sdluzlvh whvwv
ri uhjlrqdo frqwudvwv1 Lqwhu0uhjlrqdo lqwhudfwlrqv dqg fr0ghshqghqfh/ zklfk ruljlqdwh iurp
wkh suhvhqfh ri lqfuhdvlqj uhwxuqv gxh wr uhjlrqdo hqgrzphqwv dqg2ru iurp wkh vlplodulw|
ri wkh lqvwlwxwlrqdo dqg srolwlfdo iudphzrunv/ surgxfh pxowlsoh frqyhujhqfh sdwkv1 Krzhyhu/
zkdw lv uhtxluhg wr vxssruw wkh dqhfgrwdo hylghqfh rq wkh suhvhqfh ri wkhvh glhuhqw srohv ri
dwwudfwlrq lv d pruh irupdo dqdo|vlv ri krz wkhvh dqg wkhlu frpsrvlwlrq duh ghwhuplqhg1 Wr
flufxpyhqw wkh sureohp ri krz wr lqwhusuhw wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri uhvxowlqj frqyhujhqfh foxvwhuv
zh frqvwuxfw d qxpehu ri whvwdeoh k|srwkhvhv edvhg xsrq rughulqjv vxjjhvwhg e| dowhuqdwlyh
frqfhswlrqv ri uhjlrqdo jurzwk dqg frqyhujhqfh1 Zh gr wklv xvlqj d vhw ri jhrjudsklfdo/
vrflr0ghprjudsklf dqg srolwlfdo lqglfdwruv phdvxulqj frqwljxlw| dqg lqvwlwxwlrqdo vlplodulw|/
dffhvvlelolw|/ vshfldolvdwlrq/ uhjlrq vshflf ohyhov ri djjorphudwlrq dqg uhjlrqdo fodvvlfdwlrq
dffruglqj wr wkh Hxurshdq Xqlrq Vwuxfwxudo Ixqg remhfwlyhv1 Rqh ri wkh frqwulexwlrqv ri rxu
vwxg| lv d phwkrg zklfk idflolwdwhv wkh lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wkh foxvwhu rxwfrphv rq wkh edvlv ri
wkh idfwruv lghqwlhg deryh1
Wkh sdshu lv rujdqlvhg dv iroorzv1 Vhfwlrq wzr lqwurgxfhv wkh h{lvwlqj dssurdfkhv xvhg
wr hydoxdwh wkh h{whqw dqg frpsrvlwlrq ri frqyhujhqfh foxev1 Zh dovr h{dplqh rqh ri wkh
prvw fulwlfdo txhvwlrqv lq wkh olwhudwxuh rq frqyhujhqfh dqg jurzwk= wkh dssursuldwh ohyho
ri djjuhjdwlrq ri furvv0vhfwlrqdo xqlwv/ erwk dw wkh jhrjudsklfdo dqg dw wkh lqgxvwuldo ohyho1
Vhfwlrq wkuhh ghvfulehv wkh foxvwhu phwkrgrorj| dgrswhg dqg lqwurgxfhv d wlph0ydu|lqj yhuvlrq
ri wkh foxvwhu phwkrg1 E| doorzlqj wkh foxvwhu frpsrvlwlrq wr eh wlph0ydu|lqj zh duh deoh wr
h{dplqh krz wkh ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh dqg wkh foxvwhu frpsrvlwlrq ydulhv ryhu wlph1 Vhfwlrq
irxu ghvfulehv wkh gdwd1 Vhfwlrqv yh dqg vl{ frpphqw rq wkh foxvwhu rxwfrphv/ dqg whvw wkh
rxwfrphv djdlqvw rqh ru pruh k|srwkhvlvhg sdwwhuqv1
5
Lghqwli|lqj dqg Lqwhusuhwlqj Frqyhujhqfh Foxev
Wkh vwdwlvwlfdo phwkrgv xvxdoo| hpsor|hg lq wkh olwhudwxuh wr ghwhfw frqyhujhqfh foxev duh
w|slfdoo| fhqwhuhg durxqg d foxvwhu dqdo|vlv ri wkh furvv0vhfwlrqdo xqlwv1 Lq wklv frqwh{w wzr
ixqgdphqwdo duhdv ri hqtxlu| duh krz wkhvh vwdwhv dqg wkhlu frpsrvlwlrq duh lghqwlhg1 Wzr
h{wuhph srvlwlrqv duh edvhg xsrq +l, d sulrul lghqwlfdwlrq ri wkh srvvleoh rughulqjv ri uh0
jlrqv dqg wkh pd{lpxp qxpehu ri frqyhujhqfh foxev +Fdqryd +4<<<,,> dqg +ll, d vwdwlvwlfdo
dssurdfk fhqwhuhg durxqg d foxvwhulqj dojrulwkp +vhh Krelmq dqg Iudqvhv +5333,,1 Wkh ds0
surdfk ri Krelmq dqg Iudqvhv +5333, whvwv zkhwkhu frxqwulhv duh frqyhujlqj devroxwho| wr wkh
vdph orqj0uxq ohyho ru uhodwlyho| wr wkhlu orqj0uxq htxloleuld dqg doorzv iru dq hqgrjhqrxv
vhohfwlrq ri uhjlrqdo foxvwhuv xvlqj d pxowlyduldwh whvw iru vwdwlrqdulw|1 Wkh qxpehu dqg frp0
srvlwlrq ri foxvwhuv duh ghwhuplqhg e| wkh dssolfdwlrq ri sdluzlvh whvwv ri uhjlrqdo glhuhqfhv
lq wkh orjdulwkp ri shu fdslwd Jurvv Ydoxh Dgghg +JYD,1 Wkh sulqflsdo gudzedfn ri wklv
dssurdfk iroorzv lpphgldwho| iurp rqh ri lwv dgydqwdjhv/ qdpho| wkdw wkh foxvwhulqj prgho
xvhv qr frqglwlrqlqj yduldeohv/ dqg vlpso| xvhv lqirupdwlrq frqwdlqhg lq shu fdslwd glhu0
5
hqfhv lq uhdo jurvv grphvwlf surgxfw uhfrughg dw hlwkhu wkh frxqwu| ru uhjlrqdo ohyho1 Lq wklv
uhvshfw/ dowkrxjk wkh dssurdfk lv qrw ghshqghqw xsrq wkh fkrlfh ri frqglwlrqlqj yduldeohv/
dqg dwwhqgdqw sureohpv ri plvvshflfdwlrq/ wkhuh lv d uhdo gl!fxow| ri lqwhusuhwdwlrq1 Iru
h{dpsoh/ wkh edvlf rxwsxw ri wklv dssurdfk frqvlvwv ri uhfruglqj wkh qxpehu ri foxvwhuv irxqg
dqg d fodvvlfdwlrq ri uhjlrqv e| foxvwhuv1 Reylrxvo| dv wkh qxpehu ri uhjlrqv lqfuhdvhv/ lw
ehfrphv lqfuhdvlqjo| gl!fxow wr lqwhusuhw vxfk rxwfrphv1 Krelmq dqg Iudqvhv dfnqrzohgjh
wklv idfw/ qrwlqj wkdw eh|rqg pdnlqj uhihuhqfhv rq wkh hhfw ri frxqwu| dqg frqwljxlw| +zklfk
lv revhuyhg,/ wkhuh lv qr dgglwlrqdo lqirupdwlrq wr hydoxdwh wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri wkh foxvwhu
jurxsv1
Lq wklv sdshu zh xwlolvh dgglwlrqdo lqirupdwlrq zklfk hqdeohv xv wr fkdudfwhulvh uhjlrqv
e|/ iru h{dpsoh/ jhrjudsklfdo/ vrflr0ghprjudsklf dqg srolf| lqglfdwruv1 Wkh xvh ri wkhvh
txdvl0{hg hhfwv doorzv xv wr ghwhuplqh wr zkdw h{whqw rxu hvwlpdwhg foxvwhu sdwwhuq lv
frqvlvwhqw zlwk rqh ru pruh k|srwkhvlvhg foxvwhulqj vfkhphv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ xvlqj gdwd rq
jhrjudsklfdo shulskhudolw|/ d fdwhjrulfdo lqglfdwru zklfk fodvvlhv uhjlrqv orfdwlrq rq d 43
srlqw vfdoh5 / zh duh deoh wr frqiurqw wkh revhuyhg foxvwhu rxwfrphv zlwk d k|srwkhwlfdo sdwwhuq
jhqhudwhg e| d zruog lq zklfk uhjlrqv foxvwhu vroho| rq wkh edvlv ri d fruh shulskhu| glfkrwrp|1
Vlploduo|/ zh frqvwuxfw k|srwkhwlfdo foxvwhu sdwwhuqv edvhg rq wkh vhwwohphqw vwuxfwxuh6 dqg
frqiurqw wkhvh zlwk wkh foxvwhu rxwfrphv wr vhh zkhwkhu lqfuhdvlqj xuedq djjorphudwlrq fdq
h{sodlq wkh foxvwhulqj rxwfrph lq fhuwdlq vhfwruv1 Zh dovr frpsduh wkh revhuyhg foxvwhu
rxwfrphv dqg wkh vhw ri srolf| lqvwuxphqwv xvhg e| wkh Hxurshdq Frppxqlw| wr surprwh
wkh ghyhorsphqw dqg vwuxfwxudo dgmxvwphqw ri Hxurshdq Frppxqlw| uhjlrqv1 Iru h{dpsoh/
xqghughyhorshg uhjlrqv lq Vrxwkhuq Hxursh wkdw kdyh ehhq wdujhwhg xqghu Remhfwlyh 4 ri wkh
uhiruphg Hxurshdq Vwuxfwxudo Ixqgv +uhjlrqv zkrvh JGS shu fdslwd lv ohvv wkdq :8( ri wkh
Frppxqlw| dyhudjh,/ duh w|slfdoo| shulskhudo uhjlrqv zlwk olwwoh lqgxvwu|1 Wkh sulrulwlhv iru
ghyhorsphqw lq wkhvh duhdv kdyh lqfoxghg wkh surprwlrq ri wkh surgxfwlrq vhfwru/ prghuqlvlqj
lqiudvwuxfwxuh dqg hqfrxudjlqj uhvhdufk +Pduwlq dqg W|ohu +5333,,1 Rxu dqdo|vlv zloo uhyhdo
zkhwkhu wkh h{whuqdolw|0lqgxflqj srolflhv lpsohphqwhg e| wkh Hxurshdq Frppxqlw| kdyh
fkdqjhg wkh suroh ri wkh whpsrudo lqfrph glvwulexwlrq lq wkhvh uhjlrqv1
E| frqvlghulqj wzr wlph shulrgv zh duh dovr deoh wr irupdoo| ghwhuplqh zkhwkhu wkh hhfw
ri wkhvh txdvl0{hg idfwruv rq wkh ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh dqg foxvwhu frpsrvlwlrq lv frqvwdqw1
Wklv lqirupdwlrq uhsuhvhqwv wkh prvw xvhixo rxwsxw ri rxu vwxg|1 Iru h{dpsoh/ lq wkh fdvh ri
wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru zh pljkw srvwxodwh wkdw jlyhq lqfuhdvlqj joredolvdwlrq dqg lqfuhdvlqj
wudgh olqnv/ wkh hhfw ri jhrjudsklfdo dwwulexwhv vxfk dv frxqwu| phpehuvkls dqg shulskhudolw|
zloo idoo ryhu wlph1 Wklv uhsuhvhqwv dq h{wuhpho| xvhixo lqirupdwlrq iurp d srolf| shuvshfwlyh/
lq wkh vhqvh ri dvvhvvlqj zkhwkhu wkh vhw ri uhjlrq0vshflf txdvl0{hg idfwruv/ zklfk khos
ghwhuplqh d uhjlrqv* shuirupdqfh +lq whupv ri uhdo shu fdslwdo JYD,/ duh fkdqjlqj ryhu wlph1
Frpprq wr d qxpehu ri h{lvwlqj dssurdfkhv zklfk kdyh ehhq xvhg wr hydoxdwh wkh h{whqw
dqg frpsrvlwlrq ri frqyhujhqfh foxev lq prghov ri hfrqrplf jurzwk/ lv wkh lpsolflw uhfrjqlwlrq
wkdw hfrqrplf wkhru| lv uhodwlyho| lpsrwhqw lq erwk ghwhuplqlqj wkh qxpehu dqg frpsrvlwlrq
ri foxev1 Gxuodxi dqg Mrkqvrq +4<<8, xvh d uhjuhvvlrq wuhh dssurdfk wr orfdwh glhuhqw uhjlphv
5
Xvlqj wklv lqglfdwru Hxurshdq uhjlrqv duh fodvvlhg dffruglqj wr wkh ohyho ri dffhvvlelolw| zlwk uhvshfw
wr fruh uhjlrqv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ Ehojlxp dqg uhjlrqv ehorqjlqj wr wkh Zhvwhuq dqg wkh Vrxwkhuq sduw ri wkh
Qhwkhuodqgv kdyh wkh kljkhvw ohyho ri dffhvvlelolw|/ zkhuhdv uhjlrqv ehorqjlqj wr wkh Vrxwkhuq sduw ri Hxursh
wkh orzhvw1
6
Xvlqj wklv lqglfdwru Hxurshdq uhjlrqv duh fodvvlhg dffruglqj wr wkh qxpehu ri lqkdelwdqwv dqg srsxodwlrq
ghqvlw|1 Iru h{dpsoh/ uhjlrqv lq wkh Qruwk0Hdvwhuq dqg Qruwk0Zhvwhuq sduw ri Dxvwuld/ wkh uhjlrq Zdoorqqh lq
Ehojlxp/ wkh Fhqwudo dqg Vrxwkhuq sduw ri Vsdlq dqg Iudqfh dqg wkh Qruwkhuq sduw ri Lwdo| kdyh wkh kljkhvw
ohyho ri srsxodwlrq djjorphudwlrq1
6
xwlolvlqj frqglwlrqlqj lqirupdwlrq iurp d vhw ri frqwuro yduldeohv1 Wkh surfhgxuh dssur{lpdwhv
wkh jurzwk surfhvv dv wkh vxp ri slhfhzlvh olqhdu ixqfwlrqv zkhuh revhuydwlrqv duh jurxshg e|
lqlwldo frqglwlrqv1 Xvlqj furvv0frxqwu| gdwd ryhu wkh shulrg 4<9304<;8/ wkh dxwkruv glvfuhwl}h
wkh vxssruw ryhu d qxpehu ri yduldeohv/ vshflfdoo| lqlwldo rxwsxw dqg olwhudf| udwhv1 Zlwk hdfk
yduldeoh wkhq zulwwhq dv wkh xqlrq ri d qlwh qxpehu ri lqwhuydov/ dq dojrulwkp lv hpsor|hg
dorqjvlgh d vwdqgdug ROV prgho wr ghwhuplqh wkh rswlpdo uvw vsolw ryhu wklv vhw ri yduldeohv1
Jlyhq wkdw wkh| qg wkh uvw vsolw lv ghwhuplqhg e| rxwsxw/ wkh dxwkruv lqwhusuhw wklv dv
vxjjhvwlyh ri wkh idfw wkdw rxwsxw grplqdwhv olwhudf| lq orfdwlqj pxowlsoh frqyhujhqfh foxev1
Dq reylrxv glvdgydqwdjh ri wklv dssurdfk lv wkdw dowkrxjk wkh xvh ri frqglwlrqlqj lqirupdwlrq
surylghv dxwrpdwlf dqg prgho frqvlvwhqw lqirupdwlrq iru lqwhusuhwlqj wkh uhvxowdqw foxvwhuv/
wkh phwkrgrorj| lv uholdqw rq erwk d fruuhfw lghqwlfdwlrq ri wkh phdq htxdwlrq dqg wkh vhw
ri yduldeohv frqwuroolqj wkh foxvwhulqj ri uhjlrqv1
Fdqryd +4<<<, dovr srlqwv rxw wkh sureohp ri gdwd ghflhqflhv lq xwlolvlqj d vlplodu ds0
surdfk wr vhdufk iru frqyhujhqfh foxev lq Hxurshdq uhjlrqdo gdwd7 Xvlqj d suhglfwlyh ghqvlw|
iudphzrun/ wkh edvlf suhplvh lv wkdw zlwklq d jlyhq furvv0vhfwlrq wkhuh h{lvwv foxvwhulqj ri
xqlwv ri xqnqrzq irup1 Lq wklv uhvshfw erwk wkh qxpehu ri foxvwhuv dqg frpsrvlwlrq wkhuhri
duh wuhdwhg dv xqnqrzq csdudphwhuv*/ dqdorjrxv lq sduw/ wr wkh sureohp ri orfdwlqj hqgrjh0
qrxv vwuxfwxudo euhdnv lq d wlph0vhulhv1 Xqolnh vwdqgdug whvwv iru ghwhuplqlqj wkh qxpehu ri
khwhurjhqrxv jurxsv lq d furvv0vhfwlrq/ lqwud0jurxs khwhurjhqhlw| ri sdudphwhuv lv shuplwwhg1
Lq idfw/ lqvwhdg ri dvvxplqj wkdw prgho sdudphwhuv duh wkh vdph iru doo xqlwv/ Fdqryd +4<<<,
doorzv wkh glvwulexwlrq zlwklq jurxsv wr glhu1 Kh qgv wkdw wkhuh duh khwhurjhqhlwlhv lq Hx0
urshdq uhjlrqdo shu0fdslwd lqfrph dqg d whqghqf| ri wkh vwhdg|0vwdwh glvwulexwlrq wr foxvwhu
durxqg irxu srohv ri dwwudfwlrqv zkhq rughuhg dffruglqj wr wkh lqlwldo frqglwlrqv ri lqfrph
shu0fdslwd1
Wkh pdmru gudzedfn ri wklv phwkrgrorj|/ frpprq dovr wr wkh dssurdfk ri Ehuqdug dqg
Gxuodxi +4<<8,/ lv wkdw wkh vhdufk iru furvv0vhfwlrqdo euhdnsrlqwv lv edvhg xsrq d sulrul rughulqj
ri wkh gdwd1 Iru h{dpsoh/ li zh zlvk wr hpskdvlvh wkh lpsruwdqfh ri orfdwlrq/ wkhq zh zrxog
rughu uhjlrqv rq wkh edvlv ri jhrjudsklfdo sur{lplw|1 Lq dgglwlrq wkh pd{lpxp qxpehu ri
foxvwhuv/ ru furvv0vhfwlrqdo euhdn srlqwv/ pxvw eh fkrvhq d sulrul> wklv pd| jhqhudwh vxevwdqwldo
eldv zkhq ghdolqj zlwk glvdjjuhjdwh uhjlrqdo gdwd zkhuh wkhuh pd| eh d odujh qxpehu ri srohv
ri dwwudfwlrq/ h{fhhglqj wkh lpsrvhg qxpehu ri jurxslqjv1
514
D Txhvwlrq ri Djjuhjdwlrq
Wkh txhvwlrq dv wr wkh dssursuldwh wkuhvkrog vl}h iru jhrjudsklfdo xqlwv ryhu zklfk lw lv vhqvl0
eoh wr whvw iru hfrqrplf frqyhujhqfh kdv ehhq odujho| ljqruhg lq wkh olwhudwxuh1 Wkhuh lv vrph
hylghqfh wkdw wkh ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh ydulhv dffruglqj wr wkh vfdoh dw zklfk uhjlrqdo glhu0
hqfhv +frqwudvwv, duh phdvxuhg1 Iru h{dpsoh/ lw lv srvvleoh wr qg frqyhujhqfh dw rqh vsdwldo
ohyho/ exw d odfn ri frqyhujhqfh +ru hyhq glyhujhqfh, dw dqrwkhu1 Wklv lv qrw mxvw d vwdwlvwlfdo
+djjuhjdwlrq, lvvxh/ vlqfh lw udlvhv wkh edvlf txhvwlrq ri krz hfrqrplf frqyhujhqfh2glyhujhqfh
jurzwk surfhvvhv rshudwh dw glhuhqw jhrjudsklfdo dqg vhfwru ohyhov +vhh Pduwlq dqg Vxqoh|
+4<<;,,1 Iru h{dpsoh/ lq d vwxg| rq furvv0surylqfh frqyhujhqfh iru Fklqd/ Mldq/ Vdfkv/ dqg
Zduqhu +4<<9, qg wkdw glyhujhqfh lq wkh srvw uhirup shulrg lv hqwluho| h{sodlqhg e| wkh
yduldqfh ehwzhhq uhjlrqv ghqhg dv wkh jurxs ri frdvwdo dqg lqwhulru surylqfhv1 Krzhyhu/
zlwklq erwk ri wkhvh uhjlrqv wkhuh zdv qr qglqj ri glyhujhqfh1 D uhodwhg lvvxh lv wkdw wkh
h{whqw ri uhjlrqdo glhuhqfhv dw glhuhqw vfdohv pd| qrw eh vwdeoh ryhu wlph1 Lq wkh XN/ iru
7
Lq wklv vwxg| d frqyhujhqfh foxe uhsuhvhqwv d jurxs ri uhjlrqv zlwk hdfk phpehu srvvhvvlqj glvwlqfw vwhdg|
vwdwhv exw ghprqvwudwlqj d whqghqf| wr foxvwhu uhodwlyh wr rwkhu jurxsv1
7
h{dpsoh/ wkh ehwzhhq0uhjlrq frqwulexwlrq wr wkh wrwdo yduldqfh ri xqhpsor|phqw udwhv dfurvv
uhjlrqv kdv vwhdglo| ghfolqhg ryhu wkh sdvw 48 |hduv/ zkloh wkh lqwud0uhjlrq frqwulexwlrq kdv
uhpdlqhg pruh ru ohvv frqvwdqw +Juhjj dqg Zdgvzruwk +4<<<,,1 Zklovw wkh ehwzhhq0uhjlrq
frpsrqhqw h{fhhghg wkh zlwklq uhjlrq frpsrqhqw lq wkh 4<:3v dqg uvw kdoi ri wkh 4<;3v/ vlqfh
wkh plg04<;3v wkh zlwklq0uhjlrq frpsrqhqw kdv h{fhhghg wkh ehwzhhq0uhjlrq frpsrqhqw1
Lq dq h{dplqdwlrq ri wkh h{whqw ri lqhtxdolw| dqg frqyhujhqfh dfurvv Hxursh/ wkh txhvwlrq
ri jhrjudsklfdo vfdoh lv reylrxvo| fhqwudo1 Erogulq dqg Fdqryd +5334, fulwlflvh wkh Hxurshdq
Frpplvvlrq iru xwlolvlqj lqdssursuldwh uhjlrqdo xqlwv +wkh vr0fdoohg Qrphqfodwxuh ri Vwdwlv0
wlfdo Whuulwruldo Xqlwv ru QXWV,1 Wkh sulqflsdo phdvxuh iru wkhlu frpphqwv lv wkdw QXWV4/
QXWV5 dqg QXWV6 uhjlrqv duh qhlwkhu xqlirupo| odujh ru vx!flhqwo| khwhurjhqhrxv vxfk
wkdw d qglqj ri lqfrph glyhujhqfh dfurvv uhjlrqv fdqqrw xqhtxlyrfdoo| eh wdnhq dv hylghqfh
iru wkh h{lvwhqfh ri hqgrjhqrxv/ fxpxodwlyh jurzwk surfhvvhv1 Lq idfw/ wkh vpdoohu wkh jhr0
judsklfdo vfdoh/ wkh pruh lqfrpsohwh dqg iudjphqwhg lv wkh vwdwlvwlfdo lqirupdwlrq zh fdq jhw1
Wkhvh gl!fxowlhv ehfrph pruh vhyhuh li zh ixuwkhu glvdjjuhjdwh wkh lqirupdwlrq dprqj lq0
gxvwulhv dqg vhfwru ri surgxfwlrqv1 Lq frqgxfwlqj rxu dqdo|vlv dw wkh QXWV4 ohyho zh dfklhyh
d frpsurplvh ehwzhhq wkh qhhg iru d uholdeoh vhw ri lqirupdwlrq dw d uhjlrqdo ohyho zklfk lv
vx!flhqwo| krprjhqhrxv dqg wkh qhhg ri prylqj eh|rqg qdwlrqdo erughuv wr ghslfw wkh wuxh
surfhvv ri frqyhujhqfh1
Wkh txhvwlrq ri vfdoh lv dovr lpsruwdqw lq whupv ri wkh dssursuldwh ohyho ri djjuhjdwlrq ri
surgxfwlylw| phdvxuhphqw1 Ehuqdug dqg Mrqhv +4<<9, srvh wkh txhvwlrq ri zkhwkhu wuhqgv lq
djjuhjdwh surgxfwlylw| duh dovr uhyhdohg dw wkh lqgxvwu| ohyho1 Uhodwlyh wr d qglqj ri frqyhu0
jhqfh dw wkh djjuhjdwh qdwlrqdo rxwsxw ohyho/ wkh dxwkruv qg wkdw zkhuhdv wkh pdqxidfwxulqj
vhfwru kdv qrw h{klelwhg vljqv ri frqyhujhqfh/ wkh vhuylfh vhfwru vkrzv vwurqj hylghqfh ri
frqyhujhqfh1 Rqh srvvleoh h{sodqdwlrq lv wkdw lqwhuqdwlrqdo vslooryhuv/ dvvrfldwhg prvwo| zlwk
pdqxidfwxulqj/ pd| qrw eh frqwulexwlqj vxevwdqwldoo| wr frqyhujhqfh hlwkhu wkurxjk fdslwdo
dffxpxodwlrq ru whfkqrorjlfdo wudqvihu1 Lq idfw/ lq d zruog zlwk vshfldolvdwlrq dqg vslooryhuv/
wkh qrq0wudgdeoh vhfwruv zloo ehkdyh yhu| pxfk olnh dq djjuhjdwh jurzwk prgho dqg shu fdslwd
rxwsxw zloo frqyhujh ryhu wlph dv wkh whfkqrorjlfdo glxvlrq surfhvv vsuhdgv1 Dv d uhvxow lq
wkh vhuylfh vhfwru idfwru surgxfwlylw| zloo prvw suredeo| frqyhujh vlqfh sxeolf vhuylfhv duh
lqyduldqw dfurvv frxqwulhv dqg wkh lqirupdwlrq dqg frppxqlfdwlrqv edvhg whfkqrorjlhv xvhg
wr rhu wkh vdph vhuylfhv duh srwhqwldoo| vlplodu1 Lq frqwudvw zlwklq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru
frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjh ohdgv wr vshfldolvdwlrq/ dqg vlqfh glhuhqw frxqwulhv ru uhjlrqv surgxfh
glhuhqw jrrgv/ wkhuh lv qr uhdvrq wr h{shfw frqyhujhqfh lq pxowlidfwru surgxfwlylw|1
Erwk wkh fkrlfh ri wkh jhrjudsklfdo vfdoh dqg wkh vhfwrudo ohyho ri djjuhjdwlrq duh fuxfldo
vlqfh wkh fkrlfh ri wkh zurqj ohyho ri surgxfwlylw| djjuhjdwlrq dqg2ru wkh fkrlfh ri wkh zurqj
jhrjudsklfdo vfdoh pd| ohdg wr wkh plvohdglqj frqfoxvlrqv lq whupv ri foxvwhu lghqwlfdwlrq
dqg frpsrvlwlrq1 Zh eholhyh wkdw irfxvvlqj rq frqyhujhqfh ri uhjlrqdo +QXWV4, shu fdslwd
JYD dw wkh vhfwru ohyho jrhv vrph zd| wr dgguhvvlqj wkh djjuhjdwlrq lvvxhv kljkoljkwhg deryh1
6
D Foxvwhu Phwkrgrorj|
Ehiruh dsso|lqj wkh foxvwhu dojrulwkp/ zh uvw frqvlghu wkh dssursuldwh pdsslqj iurp wkh
hfrqrplf wr wkh vwdwlvwlfdo k|srwkhvlv1 Li zh revhuyh wkdw wzr hfrqrplhv kdyh frqyhujhg wkhq
zh pljkw vd| wkdw wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq shu fdslwd lqfrph lv vwdwlrqdu| ryhu wkh vdpsoh shulrg
frqvlghuhg/ li vwduwlqj frqglwlrqv duh xqlpsruwdqw1 Wklv yduldqw ri wkh hfrqrplf frqfhsw ri
frqyhujhqfh kdv d vwdwlvwlfdo dqdorjxh lq wkh qrwlrq ri d whvwlqj iru d vwdwlrqdu| glhuhqfh1 Lq
wklv fdvh wkh qxpehu/ QS > dqg frpsrvlwlrq ri foxvwhuv duh ghwhuplqhg e| wkh dssolfdwlrq ri
8
whvwv ri uhjlrqdo frqwudvwv ri wkh irup || || ;l> m 5 x> zkhuh l> m @ 4> ===> U lqgh{hv uhjlrqv/
w lv wkh wlph lqgh{/ x ghqrwhv wkh vhw ri uhjlrqv/ dqg | ghqrwhv wkh orjdulwkp ri shu fdslwd
JYD1 Zh ghqh d ehqfkpdun dowhuqdwlyh k|srwkhvlv ri qr frqyhujhqfh dv frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh
rxwfrph QS @ U> qdpho| zkhuh hdfk ri wkh jhrjudsklfdo xqlwv frlqflghv zlwk d vlqjoh foxvwhu1
Jlyhq wkdw wkh olnholkrrg ri wklv dowhuqdwlyh lv ghfuhdvlqj lq wkh qxpehu U/ wkh qxoo k|srwkhvlv
ri frqyhujhqfh lv xqolnho| wr eh uhmhfwhg1 Zh duh wkhq ohiw zlwk wkh sureohp ri lqwhusuhwlqj
wkh ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh1
Wkh qrwlrq ri devroxwh frqyhujhqfh lpsolhv wkdw/ lqghshqghqw ri wkh fxuuhqw lqfrph ohyhov/
uhjlrqv l dqg m frqyhujh wr wkh vdph lqfrph ohyhov1 Khqfh/ wzr uhjlrqv duh shuihfwo| frqyhujlqj
li uhjlrqv l dqg m duh frqyhujlqj wr wkh vdph ohyho ri rxwsxw/ qdpho| li=
<" H+|
olp
r
c|nr
|
c|nr
mL,@3
|
;l 9@ m 5 x
+4,
Dv|pswrwlf uhodwlyh frqyhujhqfh lpsolhv wkdw wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq shu fdslwd lqfrph iru l
dqg m frqyhujhv wr d qlwh frqvwdqw1 Wzr uhjlrqv duh frqyhujlqj uhodwlyho| li
<" H +|
olp
r
c|nr
|
c|nr
m L , @ ;l 9@ m 5 x>
|
+5,
c
zkhuh c ghqrwhv d vshflf phdq glhuhqfh iru uhjlrqv l dqg m 1 Zh ghqrwh dv|pswrwlf shuihfw
dqg dv|pswrwlf uhodwlyh frqyhujhqfh uhvshfwlyho| e| dqg > 1
Wkh irupdwlrq ri foxvwhuv lv ghvfulehg e| wkh iroorzlqj dojrulwkp1 Wkh dojrulwkp lv lqlwldo0
l}hg e| dvvrfldwlqj wkh U uhjlrqv lq x zlwk QS foxvwhuv1 Sdluzlvh whvwv ri wkh qxoo k|srwkhvlv
ri }hur phdq vwdwlrqdulw| duh frqgxfwhg iru doo l/ m sdluv lq x1 Iru s A s >8 zkhuh s
ghqrwh wkh hpslulfdo s0ydoxhv/ zh gr qrw uhmhfw wkh qxoo k|srwkhvlv ri frqyhujhqfh iru uhjlrqv
l dqg m= Zh uhshdw wklv surfhgxuh iru doo sdluv ri uhjlrqv dqg froohfw doo hpslulfdo s0ydoxhv lq
2
wkh yhfwru s1 Wkh uvw foxvwhu/ vd| J > lv iruphg e| vhohfwlqj wkh sdlu ri uhjlrqv/ vd| o dqg n
2
vxfk wkdw s,& @ pd{ +s,1
c Mx
Zh qrz uhshdw wklv surfhvv/ zkhuh iru h{dpsoh/ lq wkh vhfrqg lwhudwlrq wkh vhw ri sdluzlvh
frpsdulvrqv ryhu x zloo lqfoxgh J 1 Zh lwhudwh xqwlo wkh frqglwlrq s A s lv ylrodwhg ; l> m
sdluv1 Qrwh wkdw li s ? s ; l> m 5 x zh uhmhfw dv|pswrwlf shuihfw frqyhujhqfh/ dqg dsso|
wkh vdph dojrulwkp wr wkh ohvv uhvwulfwlyh whvw ri dv|pswrwlf uhodwlyh frqyhujhqfh1
f
4?
f
f
f
4?
f
614
4?
f
Dq Dowhuqdwlyh Wlph0Ydu|lqj Iudphzrun1
Lq jhqhudo wkh xvh ri vwdwlrqdulw| whvwv uhtxluhv wkdw wkh gdwd xqghu dqdo|vlv lv qhdu lwv orqj0uxq
htxloleuld jlyhq wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw wkh vdpsoh prphqwv ri wkh gdwd dffxudwho| dssur{lpdwh
olplwlqj prphqwv1 Khqfh/ li wkh hfrqrplhv duh lq wudqvlwlrq wrzdugv vwhdg|0vwdwh ru vwduw
glyhujlqj +dv lw lv lpsolhg e| wkh furvv0vhfwlrq dssurdfk, wkhq wkh vhulhv zloo qrw vdwlvi| wkh
surshuw| ri vwdwlrqdu| rxwsxw glhuhqfhv1
Wr fdswxuh wklv w|sh ri foxvwhu g|qdplfv zh dsso| d wlph0ydu|lqj vwdwlrqdulw| whvw1 Vshfli0
lfdoo| zh xwlolvh d q0|hduv uroolqj zlqgrz wkdw vkliwv surjuhvvlyho| xqwlo wkh hqg ri wkh vdpsoh
shulrg/ W> lv uhdfkhg1 Uhjlrqv l dqg m duh shuihfwo| frqyhujlqj li
|
<olp3
A
?
H +|c|
n?
|
c|n?
m L , @ 3 ;l 9@ m 5 x
Wkh foxvwhu dojrulwkp uhtxluhv wkh fkrlfh ri d qrplqdo fulwlfdo R0ydoxh/ R4?
vljqlfdqfh ohyho iru wkh whvwv1
8
9
+6,
|
M
Efc
zklfk ghqhv wkh
zkloh wkh| duh frqyhujlqj uhodwlyho| li
olp
<A 3?
|
H +|c|n? |c|n? m L|, @ c
;l 9@ m 5 x=
+7,
Wkh deryh dujxphqw lpsolhv wkdw wkh foxvwhu frpsrvlwlrq pd| qrw eh wlph lqyduldqw lq wkh
vhqvh wkdw vrph frxqwulhv pd| h{klelw frqyhujhqfh xqwlo d fhuwdlq srlqw ri wkh vdpsoh shulrg
frqvlghuhg/ dqg glyhujhqfh wkhuhdiwhu1 Wklv dssurdfk lv sduwlfxoduo| xvhixo iru srolf| dqdo|vlv
vlqfh lw jlyhv d ulfkhu vhw ri lqirupdwlrq rq wkh whpsrudo glvwulexwlrq dqg frpsrvlwlrq ri wkh
frqyhujhqfh foxev> lwv pdlq gudzedfn lv wkh vkruw wlph0krul}rq zklfk dhfwv wkh vl}h ri wkh
whvw dqg wkh foxvwhu rxwfrph19
7
Gdwd
HXURVWDW kdv hvwdeolvkhg dq dgplqlvwudwlyh pds ri wkh Hxurshdq Xqlrq fdoohg QXWV
+Qrphqfodwxuh ri Vwdwlvwlfdo Whuulwruldo Xqlwv,1 Wkh suhvhqw QXWV qrphqfodwxuh vxeglylghv
wkh hfrqrplf whuulwru| ri wkh 48 frxqwulhv ri wkh Hxurshdq Xqlrq xvlqj wkuhh uhjlrqdo dqg wzr
orfdo ohyhov1 Wkh wkuhh uhjlrqdo ohyhov duh= QXWV6/ frqvlvwlqj ri 4364 uhjlrqv> QXWV5/ frq0
vlvwlqj ri 539 uhjlrqv> dqg QXWV4 frqvlvwlqj ri :: uhjlrqv1 QXWV3 uhsuhvhqwv wkh gholqhdwlrq
dw wkh qdwlrqdo ohyho dqg frpsulvhv Iudqfh/ Lwdo|/ Vsdlq/ XN/ Luhodqg/ Dxvwuld/ Qhwkhuodqgv/
Ehojlxp/ Ox{hpexuj/ Vzhghq/ Qruzd|/ Sruwxjdo/ Juhhfh/ Ilqodqg/ Ghqpdun dqg Zhvw Jhu0
pdq|1: D frpsohwh olvw ri uhjlrqv lv jlyhq lq Wdeoh 41 Wkh fruuhvsrqglqj pds ri wkh Hxurshdq
uhjlrqv lv uhsruwhg lq Iljxuh 41
Zh xvh uhjlrqdo gdwd rq Jurvv Ydoxh Dgghg; shu zrunhu iru wkh shulrg 4<:8 wr 4<<< iru
djulfxowxuh/ pdqxidfwxulqj dqg vhuylfh1 Wkh vhuylfh vhfwru kdv ehhq ixuwkhu vxe0glylghg lqwr
pdunhw dqg qrq0pdunhw vhuylfhv= pdunhw vhuylfhv frpsulvh glvwulexwlrq/ uhwdlo/ edqnlqj/ dqg
frqvxowdqf|> qrq0pdunhw vhuylfhv frpsulvh hgxfdwlrq/ khdowk dqg vrfldo zrun/ ghihqfh dqg
rwkhu jryhuqphqw vhuylfhv1 Wklv glvdjjuhjdwlrq hqfrpsdvvhv wkh lqirupdwlrq ri pruh jhqhudo
djjuhjdwh lqglfdwruv zklfk duh edvhg xsrq phdvxuhv ri wrwdo idfwru surgxfwlylw|/ wkhuhe|
ljqrulqj wkh srvvleoh glhuhqwldo frqwulexwlrq wr frqyhujhqfh ri glhuhqw vhfwruv1
Wkh yduldeohv hpsor|hg wr lqwhusuhw rxu foxvwhu rxwfrphv frqvlvw ri d qxpehu ri lqglfdwruv
zklfk pd| eh frqvlghuhg dv {hg hhfwv< > wkhvh duh wkhq glylghg lqwr jhrjudsklfdo/ vrflr0
ghprjudsklf dqg srolwlfdo dffruglqj wr wkh ruglqdo fodvvlfdwlrq uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 51 Wkh
jhrjudsklfdo hhfwv frpsulvh frxqwu|0phpehuvkls/ wkh jhrjudsklfdo orfdwlrq ri wkh uhjlrq/
dqg lwv glvwdqfh zlwk uhvshfw wr Fhqwudo Hxurshdq uhjlrqv1 Frxqwu|0phpehuvkls ghqhv wkh
lqvwlwxwlrqdo vhwwlqj> jhrjudsklfdo orfdwlrq/ zklfk fodvvlhv uhjlrqv rq d 8 srlqw vfdoh/ lv d
phdvxuh ri frqwljxlw| dqg lqvwlwxwlrqdo vlplodulw|/ zkhuhdv wkh shulskhu|0fruh lqglfdwru lv d
phdvxuh ri dffhvvlelolw| dqg fodvvlhv uhjlrqv dffruglqj wr wkhlu uhodwlyh glvwdqfh zlwk uhvshfw
9
:
Dsshqgl{ D ghvfulehv wkh whvwv wkdw zh kdyh shuiruphg wr fkhfn iru wkh urexvwqhvv ri wkh uhvxowv1
Iru Sruwxjdo/ Ox{hpexuj dqg Luhodqg/ gdwd lv rqo| dydlodeoh dw wkh QXWV3 ohyho1 Iru Qruzd| zh kdyh qr
gdwd dw wkh QXWV4 ohyho1 Wlph vhulhv gdwd iru wkh vdpsoh shulrg frqvlghuhg duh qrw dydlodeoh iru Hdvw Jhupdq|/
zklfk lv wkhuhiruh h{foxghg iurp wkh dqdo|vlv1
;
JYD kdv wkh frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjh zlwk uhvshfw wr JGS shu fdslwd ri ehlqj wkh gluhfw rxwfrph ri
ydulrxv idfwruv wkdw ghwhuplqh uhjlrqdo frpshwlwlyhqhvv1
Uhjlrqdo gdwd rq JYD shu0fdslwd dw wkh QXWV4
ohyho iru djulfxowxuh/ pdqxidfwxulqj/ pdunhw dqg qrq0pdunhw vhuylfhv/ kdyh ehhq nlqgo| vxssolhg e| Fdpeulgjh
Hfrqrphwulfv/ dqg duh wdnhq iurp wkhlu Hxurshdq Uhjlrqdo Gdwdedvh1 Doo vhulhv kdyh ehhq frqyhuwhg wr frqvwdqw
4<;8 sulfhv +HFX, xvlqj wkh sxufkdvlqj srzhu sdulw| h{fkdqjh udwh1
<
Zlwk wkh h{fhswlrq ri srsxodwlrq fkdqjh zklfk lv dyhudjhg dfurvv wkh |hduv 4<<404<<8 iru doo wkh QXWV4
uhjlrqv1
:
wr fruh uhjlrqv1 Wkh vrflr0ghprjudsklf hhfwv duh lqglfdwruv ri uhjlrqdo0xuedq djjorphudwlrq
dqg jurxs uhjlrqv dffruglqj wr wkhlu vhwwohphqw vwuxfwxuh dqg srsxodwlrq jurzwk1 Vr iru
h{dpsoh/ dffruglqj wr wkh srsxodwlrq lqglfdwru/ d fdwhjrulfdo lqglfdwru wkdw fodvvlhv uhjlrqv
rq d 8 srlqw vfdoh/ uhjlrqv lq wkh Qruwk0Zhvwhuq sduw ri Jhupdq|/ Ehojlxp/ Fhqwudo Vsdlq
dqg Qruwkhuq Lwdo| kdyh wkh kljkhvw ohyhov ri srsxodwlrq jurzwk1 Iru djulfxowxuh zh dovr xvh
dq lqglfdwru ri uhjlrqdo djulfxowxudo vshfldolvdwlrq zklfk jurxsv uhjlrqv rq d 8 srlqw vfdoh
dffruglqj wr wkh shufhqwdjh ri odqg xwlolvdwlrq xqghu djulfxowxuh1
Ilqdoo| uhjlrqv duh fodvvlhg dffruglqj wr wkh ghjuhh dqg qdwxuh ri sxeolf dvvlvwdqfh/ lq
whupv ri wkhlu ghvljqdwlrq xqghu wkh vshflf HX Frkhvlrq dqg Vwuxfwxudo Ixqg remhfwlyh
dvvljqhg +srolwlfdo hhfw,1 Pruh vshflfdoo| zh glvwlqjxlvk ehwzhhq qrq0dvvlvwhg +Remhfwlyh 3,
uhjlrqv/ Remhfwlyh 4 uhjlrqv +xqghughyhorshg uhjlrqv zlwk vwuxfwxudo dgmxvwphqw sureohpv,/
dqg Remhfwlyh 5 dqg 8 uhjlrqv +uhjlrqv dhfwhg e| lqgxvwuldo ghfolqh dqg edfnzdug uxudo duhdv,1
Lq vhfwlrqv 8/ 9 dqg : zh uhsruw rxu uhvxowv1 Lq vhfwlrq 8 zh ehjlq zlwk dq lqirupdo
dqdo|vlv ri krz erwk wkh h{whqw dqg frpsrvlwlrq ri frqyhujhqfh foxev zlwklq Hxursh glhu
erwk ryhu wlph/ dqg dfurvv glhuhqw vhfwruv1 Zh qrwh wkdw/ frqvlvwhqw zlwk d qxpehu ri
h{lvwlqj vwxglhv +vhh/ iru h{dpsoh Ehuqdug dqg Gxuodxi +4<<8,,/ rxu lqlwldo revhuydwlrqv duh
odujho| ghvfulswlyh/ dqg wkh lqwhusuhwdwlrq lv jhqhudoo| olqnhg wr jhrjudsklf sur{lplw|1 Lq
vhfwlrqv 9 dqg : zh jhqhudwh d qxpehu ri k|srwkhwlfdo foxvwhu sdwwhuqv dffruglqj wr d qxpehu
ri dowhuqdwlyh prghov ri frqyhujhqfh surfhvvhv/ dqg lq wklv uhjdug sduwldoo| flufxpyhqw wkh
sureohpv qrwhg deryh1
8
Wkh Revhuyhg Foxvwhuv
Lq Wdeoh 7 zh uhsruw uhvxowv edvhg rq whvw ri dv|pswrwlf uhodwlyh frqyhujhqfh43 dw wkh frxqwu|
ohyho +QXWV3,1 Wkh odujhvw foxvwhuv lq djulfxowxuh dqg pdqxidfwxulqj frpsulvh irxu frxqwulhv/
zkhuhdv qrq0pdunhw vhuylfhv h{klelw wkh kljkhvw ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh zlwk d yh frxqwu|
foxvwhu1 Wklv frqupv wkh qglqjv ri Urphu +4<;9,/ Oxfdv +4<;;, dqg Txdk +4<<8, wkdw
frqyhujhqfh lv hdvlhu wr qg lq wkh vhuylfh vhfwru vlqfh prvw frxqwulhv +dqg uhjlrqv, whqg wr
kdyh vlplodu w|shv ri edvlf pdunhw dqg qrq0pdunhw vhuylfhv1
Djjuhjdwh qdwlrqdo ohyho gdwd pd| pdvn wkh h{whqw ri wkh frqyhujhqfh surfhvvhv1 Vxe0
vhtxhqwo| zh dovr dqdo|vh wkh surfhvv ri frqyhujhqfh dw wkh uhjlrqdo ohyho +QXWV4,1 Jlyhq
wkh odujh qxpehu ri HX uhjlrqv zh fkrrvh wr suhvhqw wkh uhvxowv iru dv|pswrwlf shuihfw dqg
uhodwlyh frqyhujhqfh lq pdsshg irup udwkhu lq wdeohv1 Foxvwhuv zlwk wkh kljkhvw qxpehu ri
phpehu uhjlrqv duh lqglfdwhg zlwk d gdunhu vkdgh rq hdfk pds1 Uhjlrqv zklfk ehorqj wr
wzr0frxqwu| foxvwhuv ru gr qrw foxvwhu zlwk dq| rwkhu uhjlrq kdyh qr vkdglqj1 Lq wkh nh| wr
wkh pdsv/ wkh uvw qxpehu lqglfdwhv wkh foxvwhu vl}h dqg wkh vhfrqg ohwwhu ghqrwhv wkh glhuhqw
foxvwhu phpehuvkls1
Wkh ixoo vdpsoh uhvxowv +4<:804<<<, iru wkh irxu vhfwruv duh glvsod|hg lq wkh wrs sdqho ri
Iljxuhv 5 wr 81 Lq djulfxowxuh +wrs sdqho ri Iljxuh 5,/ zh qg d yh0uhjlrq foxvwhu zklfk
frpsulvhv uhjlrqv orfdwhg lq wkh Qruwk0Zhvw/ dqg Hdvwhuq sduwv ri Hqjodqg dqg lq wkh Vrxwk0
Zhvwhuq sduw ri Jhupdq|1 Qrwh dovr wkdw wkh irxu uhjlrqv orfdwhg lq Vrxwkhuq0Lwdo|/ Vrxwk ri
Vsdlq dqg Juhhfh ehorqj wr wkh vdph foxvwhu +7E,1 Wklv frqupv wkdw djulfxowxudo uhjlrqv zlwk
vlplodu folpdwh dqg whfkqrorjlfdo hqgrzphqwv +Zlfkpdqq +4<<9,, whqg wr foxvwhu wrjhwkhu1
D vlplodu uhvxow lv dovr suhvhqw lq Gxuodxi dqg Mrkqvrq +4<<5,1
Lq wkh fdvh ri pdqxidfwxulqj +wrs sdqho ri Iljxuh 6, wkhuh lv rqh yh frxqwu| foxvwhu dqg
lq jhqhudo zh kdyh ohvv frqyhujhqfh wkdq lq wkh rwkhu vhfwruv1 Wklv lv dovr frqvlvwhqw zlwk
43
Rxu dqdo|vlv irfxvvhv rq wkh ohvv uhvwulfwlyh frqfhsw ri uhodwlyh frqyhujhqfh1
;
wkh qglqjv ri Ehuqdug dqg Mrqhv +4<<9, zkr qg olwwoh hylghqfh ri oderxu surgxfwlylw|44
frqyhujhqfh lq pdqxidfwxulqj1 D kljkhu ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh lv irxqg iru wkh vhuylfh vhfwru
+wrs sdqhov ri Iljxuhv 7 dqg 8, zkhuh wkhuh duh vhyhq frxqwu| foxvwhuv erwk iru pdunhw dqg
qrq0pdunhw vhuylfhv1 Lw frxog eh dujxhg wkdw wkh h{whqw ri frqyhujhqfh zrxog eh h{shfwhg wr
eh pruh suhydohqw lq pdqxidfwxulqj wkdq lq vhuylfhv/ ehfdxvh wklv vhfwru lv pdlqo| wudghg/
zkhuhdv prvw vhuylfhv duh orfdo srsxodwlrq rulhqwdwhg1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg wkh frqyhujhqfh lq
vhuylfhv prvw olnho| uh hfwv wkh v|vwhplf vkliw wrzdugv d pruh rulhqwdwhg vhuylfh hfrqrp| dqg
vrflhw|1
814
Wkh wlph0ydu|lqj uhvxowv
Wkh wlph ydu|lqj uhvxowv duh glvsod|hg lq wkh orzhu sdqhov ri Iljxuhv 5 wr 81 Iru djulfxowxuh
+orzhu sdqho ri Iljxuh 5, wkhuh lv hylghqfh ri d uhgxfwlrq lq wkh ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh dv
phdvxuhg e| wkh vl}h ri wkh odujhvw foxvwhu/ idoolqj iurp vhyhq wr yh iurp wkh lqlwldo +4<:80
4<<6, wr wkh qdo shulrg +4<;404<<<,1 Lq dgglwlrq/ wkhuh lv hylghqfh ri dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh
h{lvwhqfh ri foxvwhulqj dw d vpdoohu vfdoh= wkh qxpehu ri irxu uhjlrq foxvwhuv lqfuhdvhv iurp
irxu lq wkh vxe0vdpsoh 4<:804<<6 wr hljkw lq wkh vxe0vdpsoh 4<;404<<<1 Lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj
vhfwru +orzhu sdqho ri Iljxuh 6, wkhuh lv d idoo lq wkh vl}h ri wkh odujhvw foxvwhu iurp hljkw
wr yh uhjlrqv dqg dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh qxpehu ri plggoh0vl}h foxvwhuv> lq wkh pdunhw0vhuylfh
vhfwru +orzhu sdqho Iljxuh 7, wkhuh lv qr fkdqjh lq wkh vl}h ri wkh odujhvw foxvwhu1 Krzhyhu/
wkhuh lv d uhgxfwlrq lq wkh qxpehu ri yh uhjlrq foxvwhuv iurp wkh lqlwldo +4<:804<<6, wr wkh
qdo shulrg +4<;404<<<, dqg dq lqfuhdvh lq foxvwhulqj dw wkh vpdoohu vfdoh1 Lq wkh qrq0pdunhw
vhuylfh vhfwru +orzhu sdqho Iljxuh 8, wkh ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh lv hyhq pruh surqrxqfhg1 Wkh
vl}h ri wkh odujhvw foxvwhu lqfuhdvhv iurp yh wr vhyhq iurp wkh lqlwldo +4<:804<<6, wr wkh qdo
shulrg +4<;404<<<,1 Dovr wkhuh lv d vxevwdqwldo lqfuhdvh lq wkh h{whqw ri plggoh dqg vpdoo
vfdoh foxvwhuv/ zlwk irxu uhjlrq foxvwhuv lqfuhdvlqj iurp wkuhh wr irxu dqg wkh wkuhh uhjlrq
foxvwhuv lqfuhdvlqj iurp vl{ wr hljkw1 Vr lq wklv vhfwru wkh uhjlrqv qrw foxvwhulqj lq 4<:804<<6
duh frqyhujlqj lq 4<;404<<<1
Wdeoh 8 suhvhqwv vxppdu| lqirupdwlrq lq hdfk vhfwru1 Wkh glvwulexwlrq ri foxvwhuv frqupv
wkh orzhu ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh lq wkh djulfxowxudo dqg pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru/ dqg wkh kljkhu
ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh ri wkh vhuylfh vhfwru1 Wkh ixoo0vdpsoh +4<:804<<<, uhvxowv duh glvsod|hg lq
wkh wrs sdqho/ dqg lqglfdwh wkdw wkh odujhvw foxvwhuv duh lq wkh vhuylfh vhfwru +rqh vhyhq uhjlrq
foxvwhu lq hdfk vhfwru,/ zkhuhdv lq wkh djulfxowxudo dqg pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru wkhuh duh prvwo|
plggoh vl}h +wkuhh dqg wzr, foxvwhuv1 Wkh wlph0ydu|lqj uhvxowv duh glvsod|hg lq wkh plggoh dqg
orzhu sdqho ri wkh wdeoh1 H{dplqlqj wkh qdo shulrg +4<;404<<<, zh revhuyh wkdw wkhuh duh qr
foxvwhuv frpsulvlqj pruh wkdq yh uhjlrqv lq erwk wkh djulfxowxudo dqg pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru/
zkhuhdv lq wkh pdunhw vhuylfhv zh kdyh rqh foxvwhu zlwk vl{ uhjlrqv/ dqg lq wkh qrq0pdunhw
vhuylfh vhfwru wkhuh lv rqh foxvwhu frpsulvlqj vhyhq uhjlrqv1 Qrwh wkdw wkh qrq0pdunhw0vhuylfh
vhfwru lq wkh lqlwldo vdpsoh shulrg +4<:804<<6, grhv qrw kdyh dq| foxvwhu frpsulvlqj pruh wkdq
yh uhjlrqv1
D qxpehu ri vwxglhv kdyh ghwhfwhg d vorzlqj grzq ri ryhudoo uhjlrqdo frqyhujhqfh dfurvv
wkh HX uhjlrqv iurp wkh plg04<;3v rqzdugv1 Rxu uhvxowv vxjjhvw wkdw wklv grhv qrw krog zkhq
vhfwrudo glvdjjuhjdwlrqv duh h{dplqhg> dqg wkdw vrphzkdw glhuhqw surfhvvhv duh dw zrun lq
pdqxidfwxulqj dv frpsduhg wr vhuylfhv1 Dowkrxjk wklv lvvxh reylrxvo| zduudqwv ixuwkhu lqyhv0
wljdwlrq/ eh|rqg fdvxdo revhuydwlrqv dv wr wkh lpsruwdqfh ri vsdwldo sur{lplw| dqg qdwlrqdo
+frxqwu|, hhfwv lq lq xhqflqj wkh frqyhujhqfh surfhvv/ wkh foxvwhuv duh gl!fxow wr lqwhusuhw1
44
Rxu irfxv lv rq oderxu surgxfwlylw| zklfk grhv qrw doorz iru wkh lghqwlfdwlrq ri wkh frqwulexwlrq ri
whfkqrorj| dqg fdslwdo1 Dv vxfk d eurdghu phdvxuh ri pxowlidfwru surgxfwlylw| pd| ohdg wr glhuhqw uhvxowv1
<
Lq h{sorulqj wkh uhdvrqv iru wklv glyhuvh frqyhujhqfh g|qdplfv/ dqg iru wkh fkdqjh lq wkh
foxvwhu phpehuvkls zh frqvwuxfw whvwdeoh k|srwkhvhv wkdw h{dplqh wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq
revhuyhg foxvwhu sdwwhuqv dv jhqhudwhg e| rxu whvwlqj phwkrgrorj|/ dqg k|srwkhwlfdo foxvwhuv
jhqhudwhg e| d qxpehu ri vshflf vrflr0jhrjudsklfdo dqg srolwlfr0lqvwlwxwlrqdo idfwruv1
9
Frpsdulqj Foxvwhu Rxwfrphv zlwk K|srwkhwlfdo Foxvwhu Sdw0
whuqv
Lq hydoxdwlqj wkh foxvwhu rxwfrphv djdlqvw rqh ru pruh k|srwkhwlfdo foxvwhu sdwwhuqv/ zh
frqvlghu wkh h{lvwhqfh ri rqh ru pruh rughulqjv edvhg xsrq hfrqrplf wkhru|1 Lq wklv uhvshfw
zh pljkw lqvwuxfwlyho| wklqn ri wkh foxvwhuv +dqg uhjlrqv wkhuhlq, dv gdwd jhqhudwhg e| wkh
rxwfrph ri d vhtxhqfh ri whvwv/ zlwk d jlyhq whuplqdwlrq frqglwlrq1 Lw lv wkhuhiruh srvvleoh
wr frqiurqw wkhvh rxwfrphv zlwk k|srwkhwlfdo sdwwhuqv iruphg rq wkh edvlv ri d qxpehu ri
k|srwkhvhv zklfk hqfdsvxodwh ydulrxv cprghov* ri uhjlrqdo hfrqrplf jurzwk1 Wkh jhrjudsklfdo/
vrflr0ghprjudsklf dqg srolwlfdo lqglfdwruv xvhg duh olvwhg lq Wdeoh 51 Doo ri wkhp duh fhqwudo
frpsrqhqwv lq wkh qhz hfrqrplf jhrjudsk| jurzwk prghov vlqfh wkh| mxvwli| wkh suhvhqfh ri
lqfuhdvlqj uhwxuqv dqg frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjh dw wkh vhfwrudo dqg2ru uhjlrqdo ohyho +Ixmlwd/
Nuxjpdq/ dqg Yhqdeohv +4<<<, dqg Ixmlwd dqg Wklvvh +5334,,1
Wkh uvw vhw ri jhrjudsklfdo idfwruv h{sodlqv frqyhujhqfh rq wkh edvlv ri frxqwu|0phpehuvkls/
shulskhudo0fruh glvwulexwlrq ri wkh hfrqrplf dfwlylw|/ jhrjudsklfdo orfdwlrq dqg wkh lqwhqvlw|
ri wkh wudqvsruwdwlrq qhwzrun1 Lq wkhlu hduolhu zrun rq uhjlrqdo frqyhujhqfh/ Eduur dqg Vdod0l0
Pduwlq +4<<8, dujxhg wkdw uhjlrqdo frqyhujhqfh lv pruh olnho| dprqjvw uhjlrqv zlwklq d jlyhq
qdwlrq wkdq lw lv ehwzhhq uhjlrqv lq glhuhqw qdwlrqv1 Wkhlu dujxphqw lv wkdw lqvwlwxwlrqdo
iudphzrunv/ uhjxodwru| v|vwhpv/ frqvxphu wdvwhv/ dqg whfkqrorjlhv duh pxfk pruh vlplodu
dfurvv uhjlrqv zlwklq d jlyhq frxqwu| wkdq wkh| duh ehwzhhq glhuhqw frxqwulhv1 Wklv olqh
ri uhdvrqlqj zrxog ohdg xv wr k|srwkhvlvh d vljqlfdqw frxqwu| +qdwlrqdo, hhfw rq uhjlrqdo
frqyhujhqfh foxvwhulqj1
Dw wkh vdph wlph/ uhfhqw zrun rq wkh dssolfdwlrq ri hqgrjhqrxv jurzwk wkhru| wr uhjlrqdo
ghyhorsphqw/ vxjjhvwv wkdw jurzwk hhfwv dulvlqj iurp nqrzohgjh fuhdwlrq dqg vslooryhuv/ rq
wkh rqh kdqg/ dqg wkh dffxpxodwlrq ri vnloohg kxpdq fdslwdo/ rq wkh rwkhu/ whqg wr h{klelw vsd0
wldo frqfhqwudwlrq1 Vwurqj vsdwldo sur{lplw| hhfwv duh khog wr rshudwh/ lpso|lqj d vljqlfdqw
ghjuhh ri vsdwldo dxwrfruuhodwlrq hhfwv lq wkh jhrjudsklfdo sdwwhuq ri jurzwk shuirupdqfh1 Lq
rwkhu zrugv/ zh vkrxog h{shfw frqyhujhqfh foxvwhuv wr frpsulvh vhwv ri qhljkerxulqj ru vsd0
wldoo| sur{lpdwh uhjlrqv1 Dqrwkhu lpsruwdqw idfwru iru wkh orfdwlrq ri dfwlylw| lv wkh lqwhqvlw|
ri wudqvsruwdwlrq qhwzrun1 Vlqfh wkh surgxfwlrq lq rxu irxu vhfwruv glhuv lq wkh lqwhqvlw| ri
wudqvsruwdwlrq frvwv dqg lq wkhlu uhodwlyh glvwdqfh iurp wkh qdo pdunhwv/ wkhq uhjlrqv zlwk d
ehwwhu wudqvsruw lqiudvwuxfwxuh pljkw eh h{shfwhg wr dwwudfw vhfwruv zklfk surgxfh wudqvsruw
lqwhqvlyh frpprglwlhv1 Wklv dssurdfk lv ghyhorshg lq d wudgh wkhru| iudphzrun lq Olpdr dqg
Yhqdeohv +5334,1 Rq d odujhu jhrjudsklfdo vfdoh/ lw lv riwhq dujxhg wkdw wkh uhjlrqdo sdwwhuqv ri
jurzwk dqg ghyhorsphqw lq wkh HX duh fkdudfwhulvhg e| d vwurqj dqg shuvlvwhqw fruh0shulskhu|
vwuxfwxuh/ lq zklfk d fruh ri ohdglqj jurzwk uhjlrqv hqfrpsdvvlqj wkh Vrxwk Hdvw uhjlrq ri
wkh XN/ sduwv ri wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ wkh Sdulv uhjlrq/ wkh Euxvvhov uhjlrq/ Vrxwkhuq Jhupdq|/
dqg qruwkhuq Lwdo|/ lv frqwudvwhg zlwk d shulskhu| ri vorzhu jurzlqj uhjlrqv1 Wkh lpsolfdwlrq
lv wkdw uhjlrqdo frqyhujhqfh g|qdplfv vkrxog uh hfw wkh fruh0shulskhu| glfkrwrp|1
Wkh vhfrqg vhw ri vrflr0ghprjudsklf idfwruv h{sodlqv frqyhujhqfh rq wkh edvlv ri srsxodwlrq
jurzwk dqg djjorphudwlrq hhfwv1 Dorqj wkhvh olqhv Pduwlq dqg Rwwdyldqr +5334, vkrz wkdw
jurzwk dqg jhrjudsklfdo djjorphudwlrq duh vhoi0uhlqiruflqj surfhvvhv1 Lq idfw/ djjorphudwlrq
43
lqfuhdvhv zlwk jurzwk vlqfh lw lv dozd|v pruh frqyhqlhqw wr orfdwh wkh dfwlylw| zkhuh qdo
pdunhw lv eljjhu ru wkh surgxfwlrq ri nqrzohgjh lv kljkhu1 Dw wkh vdph wlph jurzwk lqfuhdvhv
zlwk djjorphudwlrq vlqfh djjorphudwlrq uhgxfhv wkh frvw ri lqqrydwlqj lq wkh uhjlrqv zkhuh
wkh hfrqrplf dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwhv1
Wkh wklug vhw ri srolwlfdo idfwruv h{sodlqv uhjlrqdo frqyhujhqfh rq wkh edvlv ri srolwlfdo lq0
whuyhqwlrq dw wkh HX ohyho1 Lq idfw/ wkh uroh ri wkh Hxurshdq Prqhwdu| Xqlrq lv wr hqfrxudjh
dqg jxlgh vwuxfwxudo dgmxvwphqw zklfk zrxog khos srruhu uhjlrqv wr fdwfk xs zlwk wkh zhdowk0
lhu rqhv +Ghoruv +4<;<,/ s1 55> vhh dovr Pduwlq +5334, dqg Pduwlq +5336,,1 Wkh lqvwuxphqwv
xvhg lqfoxgh wkh Hxurshdq Ghyhorsphqw Ixqg/ wkh Hxurshdq Vrfldo Ixqg dqg wkh Hxurshdq
Djulfxowxudo Jxlgdqfh dqg Jxdudqwhh Ixqg +Pduwlq dqg W|ohu +5333,,1 Wklv doorzv xv wr
whvw wkh ydolglw| ri zkdw Erogulq dqg Fdqryd +5334, odeho dv wkh czhdn0glyhujhqfh* wkhru|1
Dffruglqj wr wklv qrwlrq ri zhdn glyhujhqfh/ wr hvfdsh iurp wkh sryhuw| wuds pruh ghsuhvvhg
uhjlrqv vkrxog eh surylghg zlwk h{whuqdolw|0lqgxflqj idfwruv1 Zh whvw wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq
wkh revhuyhg foxvwhuv dqg dq duwlfldoo| frqvwuxfwhg pdwul{ edvhg rq zkhwkhu hdfk uhjlrq kdv
ehhq uhflslhqw ri rqh ri wkh vwuxfwxudo ixqgv1 Wdeoh 6 vxppdulvhv wkh lpsolfdwlrqv ri hdfk ri
wkhvh lqglfdwruv iru wkh uhjlrqdo foxvwhuv1
:
Wkh Xqlyduldwh dqg Pxowlyduldwh Foxvwhu Fruuhodwlrqv
Wr whvw iru wkhvh glhuhqw k|srwkhvhv zh fdofxodwh foxvwhu fruuhodwlrqv dfurvv d qxpehu ri
duwlfldoo| frqvwuxfwhg foxvwhu sdwwhuqv1 Zh zulwh wklv fruuhodwlrq dv
4*2
3
?
? S
S
F
E
p
e
p
F
E
' '
F
E
@ E#
$
$
*2 F
*2 #
F
E
S? S? pe
D
C S? S? p
' '
P
P
+8,
' '
zkhuh @ ip j ghqrwhv wkh duwlfldoo| frqvwuxfwhg foxvwhu pdwul{ edvhg rq k|srwkhvlv k/
dqg f @ ip
e j lv wkh pdwul{ ri revhuyhg foxvwhuv1 Hohphqwv pe dqg p htxdo 4 li uhjlrqv l
dqg m ehorqj wr wkh vdph foxvwhu1
Wr hydoxdwh wkh k|srwkhvhv suhvhqwhg deryh zh xvh gdwd rq d vhw ri txdvl0{hg hhfwv
ghvfulehg lq Wdeohv 5 dqg 61 Jlyhq wkdw zh zrxog h{shfw hdfk hhfw wr h{sodlq d uhodwlyho|
vpdoo iudfwlrq ri wkh foxvwhu rxwfrph/ zh dovr whvw zkhwkhu wkh ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh dqg
wkh foxvwhu frpsrvlwlrq lq wkh irxu vhfwruv lv dhfwhg e| wkh mrlqw lqwhudfwlrq ri vrph ri wkh
jhrjudsklfdo/ vrflr0ghprjudsklf dqg srolf| lqglfdwruv1 Wr whvw iru wkhvh mrlqw hhfwv zh
frqvwuxfw wkh pxowlyduldwh foxvwhu fruuhodwlrq lqgh{/ 6/ zklfk zh zulwh dv=
3
E
E
E#
6@E
E
C S? S?
' '
4*2
S S p p2 p
F
F
' '
F
$*2 # ? ? $*2 # ? ? $*2 F
F
S
S
S
S
D
p
p2
p
?
?
' '
' '
+9,
zkhuh k lv d pxowlyduldwh k|srwkhvlv zklfk/ lq wklv h{dpsoh/ lv edvhg rq d frpelqdwlrq ri wkuhh
xqlyduldwh k|srwkhvhv k> k2> k 1 Wkh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqw 6 jlyhv wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq
rxu revhuyhg rxwfrph dqg wkh pxowlyduldwh k|srwkhvlv k=
44
:14
Wkh Whvwv Rxwfrph
Wdeohv 9 dqg : uhsruw wkh uhvxowv ri wkh xqlyduldwh dqg pxowlyduldwh foxvwhu fruuhodwlrq dqdo|vlv
ghvfulehg lq wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrq1 Lq rughu wr eh deoh wr glvfulplqdwh dprqj wkh glhuhqw
rxwfrphv zh whvw iru wkh vljqlfdqfh lq wkh glhuhqfh ri wkh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv ehwzhhq
wkh wzr vxe0shulrgv 4<:804<<6 dqg 4<;404<<< xvlqj wkh iroorzlqj vwdwlvwlf=
}
@
]
]2 ~3~2
~ 3~2
zkhuh
]
@ 54 oq 44 .
+l @ 4> 5,
+:,
zkhuh wkh vxevfulswv 4 dqg 5 uhihu/ uhvshfwlyho|/ wr wkh vxe0shulrgv 4<:804<<6 dqg 4<;404<<8145
Wkh ydoxhv lq erog ri Wdeohv 9 dqg : lqglfdwh wkdw wkh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv duh vljqlfdqw1
Wkh uhvxowv lq Wdeoh 9 lqglfdwh wkdw/ dv zh zrxog suhglfw/ wkh lpsruwdqfh ri wkh jhrjudsk0
lfdo idfwruv lq ghwhuplqlqj wkh foxvwhu rxwfrphv lv idoolqj ryhu wlph1 Lq wkh fdvh ri djulfxowxuh/
wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh revhuyhg rxwfrph dqg wkh k|srwkhvlvhg foxvwhu sdwwhuq jhqhudwhg
e| frxqwu|0phpehuvkls idoov iurp 3169 wr 315<> pdqxidfwxulqj iurp 3167 wr 315;> dqg qrq0
pdunhw vhuylfhv iurp 3176 wr 31681 Wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh revhuyhg rxwfrph dqg wkh
k|srwkhvlvhg foxvwhu sdwwhuq jhqhudwhg e| d shulskhudo0fruh glvwulexwlrq ri uhjlrqv lq pdq0
xidfwxulqj idoov iurp 316; wr 315:1 Lq dgglwlrq wkh fruuhodwlrq zlwk wkh k|srwkhvlvhg foxvwhu
sdwwhuq jhqhudwhg e| wkh jhrjudsklfdo orfdwlrq idoov iurp 3168 wr 315; lq pdqxidfwxulqj/ dqg
iurp 316< wr 3169 lq wkh qrq0pdunhw vhuylfhv1 Dovr wkh uroh sod|hg e| wkh lqwhqvlw| ri wkh
wudqvsruwdwlrq qhwzrun lv ghfuhdvlqj dfurvv wkh wzr vxe0vdpsohv erwk lq djulfxowxuh +iurp
315< wr 3155, dqg lq wkh qrq0pdunhw vhuylfhv +iurp 3166 wr 315<,1 Lq wkh djulfxowxudo vhfwru
zh qg wkdw lq wkh vhfrqg vxe0shulrg rqo| 67( ri wkh foxvwhu rxwfrph fdq eh h{sodlqhg e|
wkh lqwhqvlw| ri odqg xvhg +shufhqwdjh ri odqg xvhg e| wrwdo duhd,1 Wklv lv lq frqwudvw zlwk wkh
suhglfwlrq wkdw uhjlrqv zlwk d vlplodu ohyho ri djulfxowxudo lqwhqvlfdwlrq vkrxog dovr glvsod|
d vlplodulw| lq wkh surgxfwlylw| ohyhov dqg lq wkh surgxfwlyh nqrzohgjh xvhg +vhh Gxuodxi dqg
Mrkqvrq +4<<5,,1
Ilqdoo|/ xwlolvlqj lqirupdwlrq rq wkh srolf| remhfwlyh vwdwxv dvvljqhg e| wkh HX wr hdfk
QXWV4 uhjlrq/ zh duh dovr lqwhuhvwhg lq dvvhvvlqj zkhwkhu wkh surylvlrq ri wkh HX Vwuxfwxudo
dqg Frkhvlrq Ixqgv kdyh sod|hg dq| uroh lq uhgxflqj glyhujhqfh ehwzhhq ulfkhu dqg srruhu
uhjlrqv46 dfurvv wkh vdpsoh shulrg frqvlghuhg +uhfrjqlvlqj ri frxuvh wkdw wkh vwuhqjwk ri wkrvh
ixqgv kdv ydulhg ryhu wlph,1 Wkh fruuhodwlrq uhvxowv lqglfdwh wkdw/ lq wkh djulfxowxudo vhfwru/ wkh
lpsruwdqfh ri wkh srolwlfdo idfwru lq ghwhuplqlqj wkh foxvwhu rxwfrph lv idoolqj ryhu wlph dqg
lq wkh qdo vxe0shulrg rqo| 68( ri wkh uhjlrqv zklfk duh fodvvlhg xqghu wkh vdph remhfwlyh
ri wkh HX vwuxfwxudo ixqg lqwhuyhqwlrq duh foxvwhulqj wrjhwkhu1
Ryhudoo rxu uhvxowv lqglfdwh wkdw h{whuqdo hfrqrplhv ghulyhg iurp wkh jhrjudsklfdo idfwruv
olvwhg lq Wdeohv 5 dqg 6 dqg zklfk frqvwlwxwh dq lpsruwdqw vrxufh ri lqfuhdvlqj uhwxuqv dqg
frpsdudwlyh dgydqwdjh/ duh surjuhvvlyho| ehfrplqj ohvv lpsruwdqw lq h{sodlqlqj wkh foxvwhu
rxwfrphv/ sduwlfxoduo| lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru zkhuh wkh jhrjudsklfdo orfdwlrq dqg wkh
shulskhudo0fruh glvwulexwlrq ri wkh lqgxvwuldo dfwlylw| lv ehfrplqj ohvv frqfhqwudwhg dqg pruh
glvshuvhg1 Wklv revhuydwlrq lv dovr frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh qrwlrq wkdw lqfuhdvlqj lqwhjudwlrq
dsshduv wr orzhu wkh frvwv ri wudgh ehwzhhq uhjlrqv/ wkhuhe| hqfrxudjlqj wkh glvshuvlrq ri
hfrqrplf dfwlylw| +vhh Nuxjpdq dqg Yhqdeohv +4<<8, dqg Edogzlq dqg Iruvolg +4<<<,,1
45
5 lv qrupdoo| glvwulexwhg zlwk phdq >] ] dqg yduldqfh j]4 ]5
5
4
'
t
n j2]5 '
4
j2]
t
2
?E?33
46
Wr gdwh/ dv Erogulq dqg Fdqryd +5334, hpskdvlvh/ wkh pdlq fulwlflvp lv wkdw uhjlrqdo srolflhv kdyh vhuyhg
prvwo| d uhglvwulexwlyh sxusrvh prwlydwhg e| wkh qdwxuh ri wkh srolwlfdo htxloleuld xsrq zklfk wkh Hxurshdq
Xqlrq lv exlow +s1 7,1
45
Wxuqlqj wr vrflr0ghprjudsklf idfwruv/ lq djulfxowxuh srsxodwlrq jurzwk e| duhd lv ohvv
uhohydqw lq h{sodlqlqj wkh fkdqjh ryhu wlph ri wkh foxvwhu rxwfrphv> lwv fruuhodwlrq zlwk wkh
revhuyhg foxvwhu rxwfrph idoov iurp 316: wr 315:1 Wkh vhwwohphqw vwuxfwxuh lv ehfrplqj ohvv
uhohydqw erwk lq djulfxowxuh/ zkhuh wkh frh!flhqw idoov iurp 3169 wr 315</ dqg lq pdqxidfwxulqj/
zkhuh wkh fruuhodwlrq idoov iurp 3164 wr 31591 Wklv uhvxow lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh wzr vhfwruv whqg
wr eh ohvv frqfhqwudwhg lq duhdv zkhuh wkh vhwwohphqw vwuxfwxuh lv pruh djjorphudwhg/ khqfh
ehfrplqj surjuhvvlyho| ohvv orfdo0ghpdqg lqgxfhg1
Zh qrz dqdo|vh wkh pxowlyduldwh fruuhodwlrq frh!flhqwv ehwzhhq wkh revhuyhg foxvwhu rxw0
frphv dqg wkh k|srwkhvlvhg foxvwhu sdwwhuqv jhqhudwhg e| d frpsrvlwh lqglfdwru edvhg rq frp0
elqlqj d qxpehu ri wkh txdvl0{hg idfwruv1 Lq wklv fdvh zh h{dplqh zkhwkhu wkhvh {hg hhfwv
kdyh mrlqwo| frpelqhg wr uhgxfh ru lqfuhdvh glyhujhqflhv1 Lq wkh fdvh ri djulfxowxuh zh h{dplqh
wkh h{whqw wr zklfk frxqwu|0phpehuvkls +F,/ orfdwlrq +O, dqg wkh djulfxowxudo lqwhqvlfdwlrq
+DJ, lqglfhv fdq h{sodlq/ mrlqwo|/ wkh revhuyhg vhw ri foxvwhu rxwfrphv1 Wklv pxowlyduldwh fru0
uhodwlrq lqgh{ doorzv xv wr hvwdeolvk zkhwkhu uhjlrqv zlwk vlplodu lqwhqvlw| ri odqg xwlolvdwlrq/
folpdwh frqglwlrqv dqg lqvwlwxwlrqdo vhwwlqjv duh doljqhg lq whupv ri surgxfwlylw|1 Iru pdqx0
idfwxulqj/ zh h{dplqh zkhwkhu uhjlrqdo foxvwhu rxwfrphv duh lqiruphg e| wkh fdqrqlfdo cqhz
hfrqrplf jhrjudsk| ylhz* ri mrlqw lqwhudfwlrq dprqj frxqwu|0phpehuvkls/ orfdwlrq dqg wkh
shulskhu|0fruh glvwulexwlrq +SF, ri lqgxvwuldo dfwlylw|1 Iru pdunhw dqg qrq0pdunhw vhuylfhv
zh h{dplqh wkh h{whqw wr zklfk wkh mrlqw lqwhudfwlrq ri vrflr0ghprjudsklf dqg jhrjudsklfdo
idfwruv +frxqwu|/ orfdwlrq dqg wkh lqglfdwru ri lqwhqvlw| ri srsxodwlrq jurzwk +S,, sod| d uroh
lq h{sodlqlqj wkh foxvwhu rxwfrphv dv d srvvleoh vrxufh ri djjorphudwlrq h{whuqdolwlhv1 Ilqdoo|/
iru doo wkh irxu vhfwruv zh dqdo|vh wkh mrlqw lqwhudfwlrq ehwzhhq frxqwu|0phpehuvkls/ orfdwlrq
dqg wkh srolwlfdo0lqwhuyhqwlrq dw wkh HX ohyho +HX,1
Wdeoh : vkrzv wkdw iru pdunhw0vhuylfhv wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh revhuyhg rxwfrph dqg
wkh frpsrvlwh lqglfdwru edvhg rq frxqwu| phpehuvkls/ orfdwlrq dqg wkh surylvlrq ri HX
Vwuxfwxudo Ixqglqj lqfuhdvhv iurp 3157 wr 315: iurp wkh lqlwldo wr wkh qdo shulrg/ zkhuhdv iru
qrq0pdunhw vhuylfhv wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh vdph frpsrvlwh lqglfdwru dqg wkh revhuyhg
foxvwhu rxwfrphv ghfuhdvhv iurp 3166 wr 31571 Lq wkh pdunhw0vhuylfh vhfwru +zklfk lqfoxghv
uhwdlo/ glvwulexwlrq dqg edqnlqj, wkh kljk fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh revhuyhg foxvwhuv dqg wkh
HX lqglfdwru pd| eh h{sodlqhg e| frqvlghulqj wkdw lq uhfhqw |hduv wkh vhfwru kdv ehhq wdujhwhg
e| wkh doorfdwlrq ri Frkhvlrq Ixqgv47 / wkhuhe| lpso|lqj wkdw wkh surgxfwlylw| ohyhov ri wkh
uhjlrqv zkhuh wkh vhuylfh vhfwru lv suhgrplqdqw kdyh judgxdoo| frqyhujhg1
D srwhqwldoo| qrwhzruwk| uhvxow lv rewdlqhg lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru1 Wkh pxowlydul0
dwh fruuhodwlrq uhvxowv frqup wkdw wkh frqfhqwudwlrq ri surgxfwlrq lv ehfrplqj ohvv orfdolvhg
dqg pruh iudjphqwhg1 Wkh mrlqw hhfw ri frxqwu| orfdwlrq dqg shulskhudo0fruh sdwwhuqv idoov
vxevwdqwldoo| iurp 315< wr 3149/ vxjjhvwlqj wkdw wkh surylvlrq ri srruhu duhdv zlwk d qxpehu
ri ixqgdphqwdo hqgrzphqwv wr surprwh vwuxfwxudo dgmxvwphqw dqg ghyhorsphqw/ kdv surjuhv0
vlyho| hurghg wkh wudglwlrqdo qrwlrq ri jhrjudsklfdo shulskhu|1 Iru wkh qrq0pdunhw vhuylfh
vhfwru/ wkh fruuhodwlrq ri wkh revhuyhg foxvwhu rxwfrph zlwk wkh k|srwkhvlvhg mrlqw lqglfdwru
frpsulvlqj frxqwu|0phpehuvkls/ orfdwlrq dqg srsxodwlrq/ lqfuhdvhv iurp 3156 wr 315<1 Vlqfh
wklv vhfwru frpsulvhv hgxfdwlrq dqg khdowk/ lw lv fohdu wkdw frxqwu|0phpehuvkls dqg orfdwlrq/
frpelqhg zlwk d vshflf srsxodwlrq vwuxfwxuh/ h{sodlqv prvw ri wkh fkdqjh ri wkh uhodwlyh
frqyhujhqfh foxvwhu rxwfrphv1
47
Sduwlfxoduo| wr Juhhfh/ Sruwxjdo/ Luhodqg dqg Vsdlq1
46
;
Frqfoxvlrqv
Wkhuh lv d zlgh ghedwh zkhwkhu wkh uhmhfwlrq ru qrq uhmhfwlrq ri vwdwlrqdulw| lv lqirupdwlyh
derxw wkh surfhvv ri frqyhujhqfh1 Dv Vw1 Dxe|q +4<<<, qrwhv/ li frxqwulhv zlwk glhuhqw lqlwldo
srlqwv duh frqyhujlqj/ zklfk lv lq olqh zlwk d vljqlfdqw qhjdwlyh frh!flhqw iru wkh lqlwldo
ydoxh lq furvv0vhfwlrq uhjuhvvlrqv/ wkhq sdlu0zlvh vwdwlrqdulw| whvwv pd| zhoo uhmhfw wkh qxoo1 D
vlplodu rxwfrph frxog dovr eh uhdfkhg li wkh hfrqrplhv duh wuxo| glyhujlqj/ vxfk wkdw d whvw ri
vwdwlrqdulw| grhv qrw surylgh xv zlwk d xqltxh dqvzhu1 Vhfrqgo|/ lw lv dovr wuxh wkdw wkhuh lv dv
pxfk lqwhuhvw lq krz wkhvh sdwwhuqv hyroyh ryhu wlph dqg vsdfh/ dv lq wkh jhqhudo txhvwlrq ri
zkhwkhu ru qrw frqyhujhqfh kdv wdnhq sodfh1 Zh kdyh dgguhvvhg wklv lvvxh e| h{dplqlqj wkh
sdwwhuq ri Hxurshdq frqyhujhqfh xvlqj sdluzlvh vwdwlrqdulw| whvwv rq uhjlrqdo frqwudvwv ryhu
wkh ixoo vdpsoh shulrg dqg dfurvv vxe0vdpsohv/ xvlqj d wlph0ydu|lqj iudphzrun wr fdswxuh wkh
ixoo vhw ri frqyhujlqj dqg glyhujlqj sdwwhuqv dprqj wkh uhjlrqdo hfrqrplhv ryhu wlph1
Xqolnh suhylrxv vwxglhv rq wkh lghqwlfdwlrq ri frqyhujhqfh foxvwhuv zh kdyh xwlolvhg d
phwkrgrorj| zklfk sodfhv qr frqvwudlqwv xsrq erwk wkh qxpehu dqg frpsrvlwlrq ri foxvwhuv1
Lq dgglwlrq/ dqg lq frqwudvw wr Fdqryd +4<<<,/ zh gr qrw lpsrvh dq| rughulqj rq wkh gdwd1 Wkh
uhvxowlqj foxvwhu rxwfrphv kdyh ehhq lqwhusuhwhg e| frpsdulvrqv zlwk k|srwkhvlvhg foxvwhu
sdwwhuv lqiruphg e| hfrqrplf wkhru|1 Xvlqj d vhw ri jhrjudsklfdo/ vrflr0ghprjudsklf dqg
srolwlfr0lqvwlwxwlrqdo lqglfdwruv dydlodeoh dw wkh QXWV4 uhjlrqdo ohyho/ zh kdyh fdofxodwhg wkh
fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh k|srwkhwlfdo foxvwhu sdwwhuqv lpsolhg e| hdfk ri wkhvh txdvl0{hg
hhfwv dqg wkh revhuyhg rxwfrphv1 Wkh uhvxowv duh txlwh glhuhqw dfurvv wkh irxu vhfwruv
frqvlghuhg1 Iru djulfxowxuh/ wkh frqyhujhqfh foxev duh dhfwhg e| jhrjudsklfdo idfwruv1 Wklv
pd| ghshqg hlwkhu rq vlplodu vwduwlqj frqglwlrqv/ zklfk ghqh orfdo frqyhujhqfh foxev +Gxuodxi
dqg Mrkqvrq +4<<5,,/ ru rq vlplodu folpdwh zklfk idflolwdwhv whfkqrorjlfdo vslooryhuv dfurvv
uhjlrqv +Zlfkpdqq +4<<9,,1 Iru pdqxidfwxulqj/ wkh revhuyhg rxwfrphv vkrz/ lq jhqhudo/ d
plqru ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh> lq idfw/ lq wklv vhfwru wkh surgxfwlrq ri glhuhqw jrrgv lpsolhv
wkdw whfkqrorj| fdqqrw glxvh hdvlo|> wklv surgxfhv sdwwhuqv ri uhjlrqdo vshfldolvdwlrq dfurvv
Hxursh zklfk/ krzhyhu/ gr dsshdu wr zhdnhq ryhu wlph +Ehuqdug dqg Mrqhv +4<<9,,1 Lq
wkh vhuylfh vhfwru/ wkh revhuyhg foxvwhuv glvsod| pruh frqyhujhqfh/ vlqfh w|slfdoo| wklv lv d
nqrzohgjh dqg lqirupdwlrq0edvhg vhfwru +wkh zhljkwohvv hfrqrp|, wkdw wudqvfhqgv sk|vlfdo
glvwdqfh dqg jhrjudsklfdo sur{lplw| +Txdk +4<<9,,1 Zkhq frpsdulqj wkh revhuyhg rxwfrphv
zlwk wkh glhuhqw k|srwkhvlvhg sdwwhuq lqiruphg e| hfrqrplf wkhru|/ zh qg wkdw surgxfwlylw|
lv pruh frqfhqwudwhg lq wkh duhdv zkhuh wkh srsxodwlrq jurzwk lv kljkhu1 Olqnhg wr wklv
qglqjv wkhuh lv suredeo| dq *djjorphudwlrq* hhfw zklfk surgxfhv fhuwdlq w|shv ri orfdwlrq
h{whuqdolwlhv1
Ilqdoo|/ zh kdyh whvwhg zkhwkhu wkh surylvlrq ri HX Vwuxfwxudo dqg Frkhvlrq Ixqgv kdyh
kdg dq| uroh lq dhfwlqj wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri wkh frqyhujhqfh foxev1 Iru djulfxowxuh/ wkh
fruuhodwlrq ri wkh HX ixqglqj lqglfdwru lq wkh wzr vxe0vdpsohv uhpdlqv vwdeoh/ lqglfdwlqj wkdw
uhjlrqv xqghu wkh vdph remhfwlyh kdg d vlplodu foxvwhu sdwwhuq dfurvv wkh wzr vxe0shulrgv1
Wkh rqo| vhfwru zkhuh wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh revhuyhg rxwfrphv dqg wkh HX ixqglqj
lqglfdwru lqfuhdvhv/ lv wkh pdunhw0vhuylfh vhfwru zklfk uhsuhvhqwv/ lq wkh HX shuvshfwlyh rqh
ri wkh nh| h{whuqdolwlhv0lqgxflqj vhfwruv wr surprwh uhjlrqdo ghyhorsphqw1
47
D1 Urexvwqhvv Uhvxowv
Wkh foxvwhu dojrulwkp ghvfulehg lq Vhfwlrq 7 uhtxluhv wkh fkrlfh ri d fulwlfdo s0ydoxh + s4? ,> dqg d edqgzlgwk
sdudphwhu/ o1 Dv qrwhg/ dv zh uhgxfh s4? wkh ohvv olnho| lv wkh uhmhfwlrq ri wkh qxoo k|srwkhvlv ri frqyhujhqfh1
Wkh fkrlfh ri wkh edqgzlgwkv dv ghprqvwudwhg e| Krelmq dqg Iudqvhv +5333,/ dqg Krelmq/ Iudqvhv/ dqg Rrpv
+4<<;,/ wxuqv rxw wr eh fulwlfdo zlwk vpdoo vdpsohv vlqfh lw dhfwv wkh vl}h ri wkh whvw1 Zh h{dplqhg wkh
urexvwqhvv ri wkh foxvwhu dojrulwkp zlwk uhvshfw wr ydulrxv fkrlfhv ri o wr dvvhvv erwk wkh ghjuhh ri frqyhujhqfh
+wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri wkh qxpehu ri foxvwhuv zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh edqgzlgwk,> dqg wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri wkh frqyhujhqfh
foxev1 Wr dqdo|vh wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri foxvwhu frpsrvlwlrq zh iroorz Krelmq dqg Iudqvhv +5333, dqg xvh d foxvwhu
fruuhodwlrq lqgh{ zklfk phdvxuhv wkh ghjuhh ri ryhuods ehwzhhq wkh wzr rxwfrphv1 Wr wklv hqg zh frqvwuxfw d
pdwul{ W @ pc > l> m @ 4> ===> U> zkhuh p lv 4 li uhjlrqv l dqg m ehorqj wr wkh vdph foxvwhu dqg }hur
jhqhudwhg e| d vhtxhqfh ri sdluzlvh whvwv ri vwdwlrqdulw|
rwkhuzlvh1 Ohw @ ghqrwh d sduwlfxodu ydoxh ri
K' @
zlwk edqgzlgwk sdudphwhu o @ d> K lv vlploduo| ghqhg1 Lq ydu|lqj wkh edqgzlgwk sdudphwhu/ p@ p
htxdov 4 li frxqwulhv l dqg m duh lq wkh vdph frqyhujhqfh foxe iru ydoxhv ri wkh edqgzlgwk sdudphwhuv d dqg e=
Wkh vwdwlvwlf +3> 4,> jlyhq ehorz/ uhsuhvhqwv wkh fruuhodwlrq sdudphwhu ehwzhhq wkh wzr rxwfrphv1
P
i
P
j
P
P
5
3
SS
E
E
E
@ E#
$ #
E
SS
C SS
?
?
' '
?
?
*2
@
?
?
p
' '
*2
K' @
p
@
p
' '
4
F
F
F
$ F
F
D
*2
K' @
p
iru
d> e
@4
> ===>
9
+D14,
Wdeoh D14 uhsruwv wkh vhqvlwlylw| uhvxowv iru doo wkh vhfwruv lq wkh wlph0ydu|lqj foxvwhu dojrulwkp frqvlghulqj
d edqgzlgwk sdudphwhu ydoxh udqjlqj iurp 4 wr 91 Wkhvh rxwfrphv kdyh ehhq jhqhudwhg e| doorzlqj iru
dq hljkwhhq0|hdu uroolqj zlqgrz vsdqqlqj wkh |hduv 4<:804<<<1 Lq rughu wr jhw lqirupdwlrq rq wkh fkdqjh lq
frpsrvlwlrq ri wkh frqyhujhqfh foxev ryhu rxu vdpsoh shulrg/ zh frqvlghu wkh lqlwldo +4<:804<<6, dqg qdo
zlqgrz +4<;404<<<,1 Wklv suryhv wr eh sduwlfxoduo| xvhixo lq whupv ri srolf| dqdo|vlv vlqfh zh fdq dvvhvv
zkhwkhu wkh foxvwhu vl}h dqg lwv frpsrvlwlrq kdv fkdqjhg ryhu wlph1 Wkh uvw zlqgrz fdswxuhv wkh |hduv
iroorzlqj wkh fuhdwlrq ri wkh Hxurshdq Uhjlrqdo Ghyhorsphqw Ixqg vhw xs lq 4<:81 Wkh vhfrqg zlqgrz jlyhv d
slfwxuh ri wkh idoo0rxw ri wkh lqwhuyhqwlrq lq 4<;9 dlphg dw uhiruplqj erwk wkh Hxurshdq Uhjlrqdo Ghyhorsphqw
Ixqg/ wkh Hxurshdq Vrfldo Ixqg dqg wkh Hxurshdq Djulfxowxudo Jxlgdqfh dqg Jxdudqwhh Ixqg1 Zh qrwh wkdw
dq dssolfdwlrq ri wkh Krelmq dqg Iudqvhv +5333, surfhgxuh lq vpdoo vdpsoh pxvw eh frqgxfwhg zlwk fduh/ vlqfh
wkh vl}h ri wkh whvw ghshqgv vljqlfdqwo| rq wkh fkrlfh ri o= Wkh uvw urz lq hdfk pdwul{ iru wkh wzr vxe0vdpsohv
uhsruwv wkh qxpehu ri foxvwhuv lq wkh wzr vxe0shulrgv frqvlghuhg1 Iru djulfxowxuh dqg qrq pdunhw0vhuylfhv
wkhuh duh pruh frqyhujhqfh foxev/ khqfh ohvv frqyhujhqfh/ lq wkh vxe0vdpsoh +4<;404<<<,1 Wkh uhyhuvh lv wuxh
iru pdqxidfwxulqj dqg pdunhw0vhuylfhv zkhuh wkhuh duh ihzhu frqyhujhqfh foxev/ dqg khqfh pruh frqyhujhqfh lq
wkh qdo vxe0shulrg1 D edqgzlgwk o @ 5 lv frquphg wr eh urexvw zlwk uhvshfw wr ydulrxv fkrlfhv ri o= Wkhvh
uhvxowv duh lq olqh zlwk wkrvh uhsruwhg e| Krelmq dqg Iudqvhv +5333, iru wkh Shqq Zruog Wdeoh frqyhujhqfh
foxvwhuv/ ghvfulehg lq Vxpphuv dqg Khvwrq +4<<4, zkhuh wkh foxvwhu fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh ydulrxv rxwfrphv
qhyhu h{fhhgv 31991 Khqfh/ zh dsso| d edqgzlgwk o @ 5 dqg zh vhw s4? htxdo wr 31341
48
Wdeoh D14= Vhqvlwlylw| Uhvxowv= Uhodwlyh Frqyhujhqfh
Djulfxowxuh
S,Kr
,'
2
e
D
S,Kr
,'
2
e
D
b
3
3
3
3
3
2e
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
f.ff
3
3
3
3
2e
2
fS..
3
3
3
3
Pdqxidfwxulqj
4<:804<<6
2
fSS.
fD.H
3
3
3
2e
22
e
fD2S
fDHe
fD2bf
3
3
4<;404<<<
fD2H
fSebS
3
3
3
2D
e
fS2H
fDH.S
fS 2D
3
3
2D
D
fDSHD
fDeff
fDS.
fS2S.
3
2.
D
fDHSS
fDeH.
fDf22
fD.De
3
2.
S
fSf D
fD.e.
fe.ef
fe bD
fDbH2
2H
S
fD.HH
fDD
fDebf
fS fD
fDbD
S,Kr
,'
2
e
D
S,Kr
,'
2
e
D
2
3
3
3
3
3
2D
3
3
3
3
3
22
2
f HDf
3
3
3
3
S,Kr
2
22
,'
2
fS be
2
e
D
S,Kr
,'
2
e
D
3
3
3
3
3
2e
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2e
2
f.eSb
3
3
3
3
4<:804<<6
2D
2.
2H
fS D
fSfeb
e
f . 2
fe2
feH2
D
fe2..
fDSb
fDfff
fSfee
S
feS.
fDf D
fDfH
f HS2
fD.f2
4<;404<<<
2D
fSS2
f.2.D
3
3
3
3
3
2.
e
fDH22
fSe.D
fS2S
3
3
fD2ef
fDfe
3
3
3
3
2S
e
f .S2
feS.
f Hb
4<;404<<<
2D
fD S
fSD2
3
3
3
3
3
2S
e
fe Df
fD HH
fDbH2
3
3
2b
D
f .e
fe.e
fDS2S
fSb e
2.
S
fe Db
fD.
f D b
feb2f
fDeb
2S
D
feD2f
fD b
febSD
fDSee
2
S
fef
fe2 .
f bb
fe.e
fe.Db
2.
D
feD2.
fSfb
fDbeD
f.
2b
S
fDefe
fDef
fDHSf
fDb2D
fDH2D
2S
D
feDH2
feSDe
feDe
fDS e
2S
S
fDeff
fe.Hb
feH.
feSbb
fD eD
3
3
Qrq0Pdunhw Vhuylfhv
22
3
3
3
2S
3
3
3
2
2
febbf
Pdunhw Vhuylfhv
4<:804<<6
3
2H
D
fDf2f
fDfb.
fDf e
fD bf
3
f
S
fDH b
fDDfb
fDeeb
fDb.S
f.e H
49
S,Kr
,'
2
e
D
S,Kr
,'
2
e
D
2
3
3
3
3
3
22
3
3
3
3
3
2e
2
fDH H
3
3
3
3
22
2
fe2fD
3
3
3
3
4<:804<<6
2D
feS
fSHDD
3
3
3
2.
e
fDe D
fSS.2
fD.DH
3
3
4<;404<<<
22
fe2 f
feb
3
3
3
2e
e
fDe
fS2.S
febbf
3
3
3
3
Uhihuhqfhv
+4<;9,= Fdwfklqj Xs/ Irujlqj Dkhdg/ dqg Idoolqj Ehklqg/
79=5/ 6;87391
Deudprylw}/ P1
Klvwru|/
Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf
+4<<<,= Wkh Fruh0Shulskhu| Prgho dqg Hqgrjhqrxv Jurzwk=
Vwdelol}lqj dqg Ghvwdelol}lqj Lqwhjudwlrq/ Hfrqrplfd/ 9:/ 63:571
Edogzlq/ U1 H1/ dqg U1 Iruvolg
+4<<4,= Frqyhujhqfh Dfurvv Vwdwhv dqg Uhjlrqv/
4/ 43:4;51
Eurrnlqjv
Eduur/ U1/ dqg [1 Vdod0l0Pduwlq
Sdshuv rq Hfrqrplf Dfwlylw|/
Eduur/ U1 M1/ dqg [1 Vdod0l0Pduwlq
QEHU zrunlqj sdshu 84841
+4<<8,= Whfkqrorjlfdo Glxvlrq/ Frqyhujhqfh dqg Jurzwk/
Ehuqdug/ D1 E1/ dqg V1 Q1 Gxuodxi
Dssolhg Hfrqrphwulfv/
43/ <:43;1
+4<<8,= Frqyhujhqfh lq Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Rxwsxw/
Mrxuqdo ri
+4<<9,= Frpsdulqj Dssohv wr Rudqjhv= Surgxfwlylw| Frqyhujhqfh
dqg Phdvxuhphqw Dfurvv Lqgxvwulhv dqg Frxqwulhv/ Wkh Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ ;9+8,/ 4549
456;1
Ehuqdug/ D1 E1/ dqg F1 L1 Mrqhv
+4<<6,= Prghov ri Hfrqrplf Lqwhjudwlrq dqg Orfdol}hg Jurzwk/ lq Dgmxvwphqw dqg
hg1 e| I1 Wruuhv/ dqg I1 Jldyd}}l/ ss1 4894:</ Fdpeulgjh1
Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1
Ehuwrod/ J1
Jurzwk lq wkh Hxurshdq Prqhwdu| Xqlrq/
Erogulq/ P1/ dqg I1 Fdqryd
jlrqdo Srolflhv/
+5334,= Lqhtxdolw| dqg Frqyhujhqfh= Uhfrqvlghulqj Hxurshdq Uh0
3+65,/ 538781
Hfrqrplf Srolf|= D Hxurshdq Iruxp/
Erowkr/ D1/ dqg J1 Krowkdp
+4<<5,= Wkh Dvvhvvphqw= Qhz Dssurdfkhv wr Hfrqrplf Jurzwk/
;+7,/ 4471
R{irug Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Srolf|/
+4<<<,= Whvwlqj iru Khwhurjhqhlw| lq wkh Furvv Vhfwlrqdo Glphqvlrq ri d Sdqho= D
Suhglfwlyh Ghqvlw| Dssurdfk/ Zrunlqj Sdshu/ Xqlyhuvlwdw Srpshx Ideud/ Pd|1
Fdqryd/ I1
+4<;<,= Frqyhujhqfh0Glyhujhqhfh
Xqzlq K|pdq/ Orqgrq1
Fkhvkluh/ S1/ dqg J1 Fduerqdur
Hpsw| Eodfn Er{B
lq Uhjlrqdo Jurzwk Udwhv= Dq
+4<;<,= Uhsruw rq Hfrqrplf dqg Prqhwdu| Xqlrq lq wkh Hxurshdq Frppxqlw|/ Glv0
fxvvlrq sdshu/ Uhsruw wr wkh Hxurshdq Frxqflo e| d Frpplwwhh fkdluhg e| M1 Ghoruv/ Euxvvhov/
Frpplvvlrq ri wkh Hxurshdq Frppxqlw|1
Ghoruv/ M1
Q1/ dqg S1 Mrkqvrq +4<<5,=
Orfdo yhuvxv Joredo Frqyhujhqfh Dfurvv Qdwlrqdo
Hfrqrplhv/ Glvfxvvlrq Sdshu 6<<9/ QEHU1
Gxuodxi/
Gxuodxi/ V1/ dqg S1 Mrkqvrq
+4<<8,= Pxowlsoh Uhjlphv dqg Furvv0Frxqwu| Jurzwk Ehkdylru/
/ 43/ 698;71
Mrxuqdo ri Dssolhg Hfrqrphwulfv
+4<<<,=
1 PLW Suhvv/ Fdpeulgjh/ PD1
Ixmlwd/ P1/ S1 Nuxjpdq/ dqg D1 M1 Yhqdeohv
Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Wudgh
Ixmlwd/ P1/ dqg M1 Wklvvh
Wkh Vsdwldo Hfrqrp|= Flwlhv/ Uhjlrqv dqg
+5334,= Djjorphudwlrq dqg Pdunhw Lqwhudfwlrq/ 1
Juhjj/ S1/ dqg M1 Zdgvzruwk
+4<<<,=
Jurvvpdq/ J1 K1/ dqg H1 Khospdq
/ 68+506,/ 84:591
Wkh Vwdwh ri Zrunlqj Eulwdlq
1 Pdqfkhvwhu Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1
+4<<4,= Wudgh/ Nqrzohgjh Vslooryhuv/ dqg Jurzwk/
Hxurshdq
Hfrqrplf Uhylhz
+4<<;,= Jhqhudolvdwlrq ri wkh NSVV0Whvw iru Vwdwlrqdulw|/
Glvfxvvlrq Sdshu Hfrqrphwulf Lqvwlwxwh Uhsruw <;35/ Hudvpxv Xqlyhuvlw| Urwwhugdp1
Krelmq/ E1/ S1 Iudqvhv/ dqg P1 Rrpv
Krelmq/ E1/ dqg S1 K1 Iudqvhv
Surgxfwlylw|/
+5333,= Dv|pswrwlfdoo| Shuihfw dqg Uhodwlyh Frqyhujhqfh ri
/ 48/ 8<;41
Mrxuqdo ri Dssolhg Hfrqrphwulfv
Mldq/ W1/ M1 G1 Vdfkv/ dqg D1 P1 Zduqhu
+4<<9,= Wuhqgv lq Uhjlrqdo Lqhtxdolw| lq Fklqd/
/ s1 571
Qdwlrqdo Exuhdx ri Hfrqrplf Uhvhdufk Zrunlqj Sdshu 8745
4:
+4<<4,= Lqfuhdvlqj Uhwxuqv dqg Hfrqrplf Jhrjudsk|/ Mrxuqdo ri Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp|/
<<+6,/ 7;67<<1
Nuxjpdq/ S1
+4<<8,= Joredolvdwlrq dqg wkh Lqhtxdolw| ri Uhjlrqv/ Txduwhuo|
93/ ;8:;31
Nuxjpdq/ S1/ dqg D1 Yhqdeohv
Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/
+5334,= Lqiudvwuxfwxuh/ Jhrjudsklfdo Glvdgydqwdjh/ Wudqvsruw Frvwv/
dqg Wudgh/ Zruog Edqn Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 48+6,/ 784:<1
Olpdr/ Q1/ dqg D1 Yhqdeohv
Oxfdv/ U1
55/ 6751
+4<;;,= Rq wkh Phfkdqlfv ri Hfrqrplf Ghyhorsphqw/ Mrxuqdo ri Prqhwdu| Hfrqrplfv/
Pduwlq/ S1/ dqg J1 L1 S1 Rwwdyldqr
Uhylhz/
75+7,/ <7:9;1
Pduwlq/ U1
+5334,= Jurzwk dqg Djjorphudwlrq/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplf
+5334,= HPX yhuvxv wkh Uhjlrqv= Uhjlrqdo Frqyhujhqfh dqg Glyhujhqfh lq Hxurodqg/
+4,/ 84;31
Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Jhrjudsk|/
+5336,= HPX dqg Hqodujhphqw= Wzlq Wkuhdwv wr Hxurshdq Uhjlrdqo FrkhvlrqB/ lq Duqxoo/
ss1 6786961
D1 dqg Zlqfrww/ G1 +Hgv, Dffrxqwdelolw| dqg Ohjlwlpdf| lq wkh Hxurshdq Xqlrq/
+4<<;,= Vorz FrqyhujhqfhB Wkh Qhz Hqgrjhqhrxv Jurzwk Wkhru|
dqg Uhjlrqdo Ghyhorsphqw/ Hfrqrplf Jhrjudsk|/ :7/ 53455:1
Pduwlq/ U1/ dqg S1 Vxqoh|
+5333,= Uhjlrqdo Hpsor|phqw Hyroxwlrqv lq wkh Hxurshdq Xqlrq= D
Suholplqdu| Dqdo|vlv/ Uhjlrqdo Vwxglhv/ 67+:,/ 934491
Pduwlq/ U1/ dqg S1 W|ohu
+4<<8,= Lghdv Ghwhuplqlqj Frqyhujhqfh Foxev/ Zrunlqj sdshu/ Hfrqrplfv Ghsduwphqw/
Orqgrq Vfkrro ri Hfrqrplfv +Dxjxvw,1
Txdk/ G1
+4<<9,= Djjuhjdwh dqg Uhjlrqdo Glvdjjuhjdwh Ioxfwxdwlrqv/ Hpslulfdo Hfrqrplfv1
+4<;9,= Lqfuhdvlqj Uhwxuqv dqg Orqj0Uxq Jurzwk/ Mrxuqdo ri srolwlfdo hfrqrp|/ <7/
4335436:1
Urphu/ S1
+4<89,= D Frqwulexwlrq wr wkh Wkhru| ri Hfrqrplf Jurzwk/
Vrorz/ U1 P1
Hfrqrplfv/ :3+4,/ 98<71
Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri
+4<<<,= Frqyhujhqfh Dfurvv Lqgxvwuldolvhg Frxqwulhv +4;<304<;<,= Qhz Uhvxowv Xvlqj
Wlph Vhulhv Phwkrgv/ Hpslulfdo Hfrqrplfv/ 57+4,/ 56771
Vw1 Dxe|q/ P1
Vzdqq/ W1 Z1
Whpsoh/ M1
+4<89,= Hfrqrplf Jurzwk dqg Fdslwdo Dffxpxodwlrq/ Hfrqrplf Uhfrug/ 65/ 6676941
+4<<<,= Wkh Qhz Jurzwk Hylghqfh/
Zlfkpdqq/ W1
Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Olwhudwxuh/ 6:/ 4454891
+4<<9,= Whfkqrorj| Dgrswlrq lq Djulfxowxuh dqg Frqyhujhqfh Dfurvv Hfrqrplhv/ 1
4;
Wdeoh 4= QXWV4 frgh
Frgh
Frxqwu|
DW
DW4
DW5
DW6
Dxvwuld
EH
EH4
Ehojlxp
EH5
EH6
GH
Jhupdq|
Rvwrvwhuuhlfk
Vxgrvwhuuhlfk
Zhvwrvwhuuhlfk
Frgh
Frxqwu|
LH
Luhodqg
LW
LW4
Lwdo|
Qrug R yhvw
LW5
Orpedugld
Uhjlrq Eux{hoohv0Fdslwdo0Euxvvhov
LW6
Qrug Hvw
Krrigvwhgholmnh Jhzhvw
LW7
Hplold0Urpdjqd
Yoddpv Jhzhvw
LW8
Fhqwur
Uhjlrq Zdoorqqh
LW9
Od}lr
LW:
Deux}}r0Prolvh
Fdpsdqld
GH4
Edghq0Zxuwwhpehuj
LW;
GH5
Ed|huq
LW<
Vxg
GH6
Ehuolq
LWD
Vlflold
GH8
Euhphq
LWE
GH9
Kdpexuj
OX
Ox{hperxuj
Qhwkhuodqgv
Vdughjqd
GH:
Khvvhq
GH<
Qlhghuvdfkvhq
QO
GHD
Qrugukhlq0Zhvwidohq
QO4
GHE
Ukhlqodqg0Sido}
QO5
Rrvw0Qhghuodqg
GHF
Vdduodqg
QO6
Zhvw0Qhghuodqg
GHJ
Wkxulqjhq
QO7
GN
Ghqpdun
HV
Vsdlq
HV6
SW
SW4
Sruwxjdo
VH
Vzhghq
Xqlwhg Nlqjgrp
Frpxqlgdg gh Pdgulg
Qrrug0Qhghuodqg
]xlg0Qhghuodqg
Frqwlqhqwh
HV7
Fhqwur+H,
XN
HV8
Hvwh
XNF
HV9
Vxu
XNG
Qruwk Zhvw
Fdqduldv
XNH
\runvkluh dqg
XNI
Hdvw Plgodqg
HV:
I4
IU
Ilqodqg
Qruwk Hdvw
Kxpehu
Iudqfh
XNJ
Zhvw Plgodqgv
IU4
Loh gh Iudqfh
XNK
Hdvw ri Hqjodqg
IU5
Edvvlq0Sdulvlhq
XN4
Orqgrq
IU6
Qrug Sdv gh Fdodlv
XNM
Vrxwk Hdvw
IU7
Hvw
XNN
Vrxwk Zhvw
IU8
Rxhvw
XNO
Zdohv
IU9
Vxg0Rxhvw
XNP
Vfrwodqg
IU:
Fhqwuh0Hvw
IU;
Phglwhuudqhh
JU
Juhhfh
JU4
Yruhld Hoodgd
JU5
Nhqwulnl Hoodgd
JU6
Dwwlnl
JU7
Qlvld Dljdlrx/ Nulwl
4<
Wdeoh 5= Gdwd Vrxufh dqg Ghvfulswlrq
Jhrjudsklfdo
Idfwruv
Phfkdqlvp
Frxqwu|
Shulskhudo Fruh
Lqvwlwxwlrqdo Vhwwlqj
Jhrjudsklf orfdwlrq
ri uhjlrq
Frqwljxlw| dqg
Lqvwlwxwlrqdo
Vlplodulw|
Dffhvvlelolw|
Srolwlfdo
Fryhudjh
Phdvxuhphqw
ohyho
Vrxufh
HX48
qrplqdo
qrplqdo
HX48
qrplqdo
EEU
4<<9+<72<,
HX48
ruglqdo
Vshfldolvdwlrq
4<;<0<9
HX48
ruglqdo
Xqlyhuvlw|
ri Wulhu
Juhhn dqg
Gxwfk QISv
Srsxodwlrq jurzwk
e| wrwdo duhd
Djjorphudwlrq
4<<40<8
HX48
ruglqdo
Vhwwohphqw vwuxfwxuh
Djjorphudwlrq
HX48
qrplqdo
EEU
W|sh ri HX
Vwuxfwxudo dqg
Frkhvlrq Ixqgv
H{whuqdolwlhv0
Lqgxflqj
Srolflhv
HX48
ruglqdo
Hxurvwdw
Glvvhfwlrq= Ohqjwk ri
wudqvsruwdwlrq
Djulfxowxudo
lqwhqvlfdwlrq
Vrflr0
ghprjudsklf
\hdu
Dffhvvlelolw|
Jhupdq Ihghudo
R!fh iru
Exloglqj dqg
Sodqqlqj +EEU,
Frpphqwv
Pdqxdo fodvvlfdwlrq
4 Shulskhudo fruh/ 5 Fhqwudo dqg fhqwudo
phwursrolwdq uhjlrqv/ 6 Wrxulvw uhjlrqv/
7 Euxvvhov dqg Euhphq/ 8 Jhupdq Qhz Odqghu/
9 Fhqwudo dqg Hdvwhuq XN/ : Qruglf frxqwulhv/
; Shulskhudo Vrxwkhuq Hxursh/ < Phglwhuudqhdq
soxv Luhodqg/ 43 Qruwkhuq Lwdo|1
Pdqxdo fodvvlfdwlrq dffruglqj wr jhrjudsklf
orfdwlrq= 4 Wkh Qruwk/ 5 Dwodqwlf/ 6 Phglwhuudqhdq/
7 Hdvwhuq HX0erughu/ 8 Fhqwuh1
Wkh fodvvhv duh= 4 Yhu| orz/ 5 Orz/ 6 phglxp/
7 Kljk/ 8 Yhu| Kljk
Frpsrvlwh lqglfdwru ri shufhqw jurzwk ri
djulfxowxudo dffrxqwv/ shufhqw ri djulfxowxudo
kroglqjv : 83 dqg shufhqw ri odqg xvh e| wrwdo duhd
+vhh uhsruw ri wkh zrunlqj jurxs,1 Wkh fodvvhv duh=
4 Kljk suhvvxuh/ 5 Lpsruwdqw suhvvxuh/ 6 Hyhqwxdo
suhvhqfh ri suhvvxuh/ 7 Qhxwudo suhvvxuh/ 8 Qhjdwlyh
suhvvxuh1
Qr gdwd iru Pdghlud/ Dfruhv/ Fdqduldv/
Fhxwd | Pholood> wkh fodvvhv duh 4 yhu|
orz/ 5 orz/ 6 phglxp/ 7 kljk/ 8 yhu| kljk1
L1 Djjorphudwhg uhjlrqv zlwk d fhqwuh : 633/333
dqg d srsxodwlrq ghqvlw| :+L14, ru +L15, 633
lqkdelwdqwv2np 2 > LL1 Xuedqlvhg uhjlrqv zlwk d
fhqwuh : 483/333 lqkdelwdqwv zlwk d srsxodwlrq
ghqvlw| : +LL14, ru +LL15, 483 lqkdelwdqwv2np 2 1
LLL Uxudo uhjlrqv zlwk d srsxodwlrq
ghqvlw| 433 lqkdelwdqwv2np 2 dqg d
fhqwuh : +LLL14, ru +LLL15, 458/333 lqkdelwdqwv1
Wkh fodvvhv duh 3 @ Qr vshfldo vwdwxv/ 4 @ Remhfwlyh
4 vwdwxv rqo|/ 5 @ Remhfwlyh 5 vwdwxv rqo|/ 8 @
Remhfwlyh 8e vwdwxv rqo|/ 9 @ Remhfwlyh 9 vwdwxv rqo|/
: @ Sduwldoo| Remhfwlyh 8e/ ; @ Sduwldoo| Remhfwlyh 5/
< @ Sduwldoo| Remhfwlyh 5 dqg 8e/ 43 @ Sduwldoo|
Remhfwlyh 5/ 8e dqg 9/ 44 @ Sduwldoo| Remhfwlyh 4
dqg 8e/ 45 @ Sduwldoo| Remhfwlyh 4 dqg 5/
46 @ Sduwldoo| Remhfwlyh 4/ 5 dqg 81
Wdeoh 6= Wkh Txdvl0Il{hg Idfwruv
Jhrjudsklfdo
Idfwruv
Ghvfulswlrq
Frxqwu| phpehuvkls
Uhjlrqv foxvwhu vroho| rq wkh edvlv ri wkhlu qdwlrq0vwdwh phpehuvkls1 Wkh dvvr fldwhg phfkdqlvpv lqfoxgh d vkduhg lqvwlwxwlrqdo
iudphzrun/ wkh vdph vhw ri srolwlfdo lqvwlwxwlrqv dqg d zhoo ghqhg jhrjudsklf erxqgdu|1
Uhjlrqv duh fodvvlhg dffruglqj wr wkhlu uhodwlyh glvwdqfh zlwk uhvshfw wr d fruh ri Hxurshdq uhjlrqv1
Uhjlrqdo foxvwhuv duh ghwhuplqhg e| d eurdghu jhrjudsklfdo fodvvlfdwlrq ri uhjlrqv= Qruwkhuq Hxurshdq/ Dwodqwlf/ Phglwhuudqhdq/
Fhqwudo ru Hdvwhuq Hxurshdq1 Khuh/ lw lv dvvxphg wkdw frqwljxlw| dqg lqvwlwxwlrqdo vlplodulw| pd| dhfw uhjlrqdo frqyhujhqfh
Uhjlrqv duh fodvvlhg dffruglqj wr wkh lqwhqvlw| ri wudqvsruwdwlrq qhwzrun1
Uhjlrqv duh fodvvlhg dffruglqj wr d frpsrvlwh lqglfdwru ri shufhqw jurzwk ri djulfxowxudo dffrxqwv/ shufhqw ri djulfxowxudo
kroglqjv juhdwhu wkdq 83( dqg shufhqwdjh ri odqg xvh e| wrwdo duhd1
Shulskhu|0fruh
Jhrjudsklf orfdwlrq
Wudqvsruwdwlrq qhwzrun e| wrwdo duhd
Djulfxowxudo lqwhqvlfdwlrq
Vrflr0ghprjudsklf
Srsxodwlrq jurzwk e| duhd
Uhjlrqv duh fodvvlhg edvhg xsrq wkh dyhudjh ri srsxodwlrq jurzwk ehwzhhq 4<<4 dqg 4<<81 Fkdqjhv lq srsxodwlrq jurzwk dqg
srsxodwlrq ghqvlw| fdswxuh wkh uroh ri xuedq djjorphudwlrq lq vkdslqj uhdo JYD shu fdslwd frqyhujhqfh1
Uhjlrqv duh fodvvlhg dffruglqj wr wkh qxpehu ri lqkdelwdqwv dqg srsxodwlrq ghqvlw|1 Wklv pd| uh hfw/ iru h{dpsoh/ glhuhqw
ohyhov ri xuedqlvdwlrq dqg djjorphudwlrq g|qdplfv1
Vhwwohphqw vwuxfwxuh
Srolwlfdo
HX Vwuxfwxudo Ixqgv remhfwlyhv
Uhjlrqv duh fodvvlhg dffruglqj wr wkh glhuhqw HX Vwuxfwxudo Ixqgv remhfwlyhv1 Wkh HX Frkhvlrq dqg Vwuxfwxudo Ixqg r emhfwlyhv duh=
Remhfwlyh 41 Wr surprwh wkh ghyhorsphqw dqg vwuxfwxudo dgmxvwphqw ri xqghughyhorshg uhjlrqv
Remhfwlyh 51 Wr uhghyhors uhjlrqv ru duhdv zlwklq uhjlrqv +orfdo oderxu pdunhwv ru xuedq frppxqlwlhv, zklfk duh vhulrxvo| dhfwhg e|
lqgxvwuldo ghfolqh
Remhfwlyh 61 Wr frpedw orqj whup xqhpsor|phqw/ wr surylgh fduhhu survshfwv iru |rxqj shrsoh +djhg xqghu 68, dqg
wr uhlqwhjudwh shuvrqv dw ulvn ri ehlqj h{foxghg iurp wkh oderxu pdunhw1
Remhfwlyh 71 Wr idflolwdwh wkh dgdswlrq ri zrunhuv wr lqgxvwuldo fkdqjh dqg ghyhorsphqwv lq wkh surgxfwlrq v|vwhp1
Remhfwlyh 8d1 Wr vshhg xs wkh dgdswlrq ri surgxfwlrq/ surfhvvlqj dqg pdunhwlqj vwuxfwxuhv lq djulfxowxuh dqg iruhvwu| dqg wr khos prghuqlvh
dqg uhvwuxfwxuh wkh vkhulhv dqg dtxdfxowxuh vhfwru
Remhfwlyh 8e1 Wr surprwh wkh ghyhorsphqw ri uxudo duhdv
Remhfwlyh 91 Wr surprwh wkh ghyhorsphqw ri qruwkhuq uhjlrqv lq wkh qhz phpehu vwdwhv lq Vfdqglqdyld +vlqfh 4<<8 Ilqodqg dqg Vzhghq,
54
Wdeoh 7= Dv|pswrwlf Uhodwlyh Frqyhujhqfh= QXWV3
Djulfxowxuh
41 IU
LH
OX
51 LW
SW
XN
61 GN
QO
71 JU
VH
81 IL
QR
Pdqxidfwxulqj
EH
Pdunhw Vhuylfhv
41 OX
DW
XN
41 HV
LH
SW
51 GN
IU
SW
QR
51 JU
VH
EH
61 HV
LH
EH
61 GH
XN
71 JU
QO
71 LW
DW
81 GH
IL
81 IU
IL
QR
Qrq0Pdunhw Vhuylfhv
41 GN
GH
HV
51 LW
OX
QO
61 LH
IL
EH
71 VH
QR
IU
JU
Vlqjoh Frxqwu| Foxvwhuv
DW
HV
GH
VH
LW
GN
55
OX
QO
SW
DW
XN
Wdeoh 8= Foxvwhu Vxppdu| Lqirupdwlrq
Foxvwhu vl}h
4
5
6
7
8
9
:
;
Wrwdo Foxvwhuv
Qxpehu ri Foxvwhuv
4<:804<<<
Djulfxowxuh
4
<
:
7
4
4
3
3
56
Pdqxidfwxulqj
5
:
44
7
4
3
3
3
58
Pdunhw Vhuylfh
9
44
9
4
5
3
4
3
5:
Qrq0pdunhw Vhuylfh
4
;
9
5
4
5
4
3
54
4<:804<<6
Djulfxowxuh
5
8
7
9
3
5
4
3
53
Pdqxidfwxulqj
4
:
9
7
5
3
3
4
54
Pdunhw Vhuylfhv
4
43
7
5
7
4
3
3
55
Qrq0pdunhw Vhuylfhv
5
43
9
6
6
3
3
3
57
4<;404<<<
Djulfxowxuh
5
;
;
8
4
3
3
3
57
Pdqxidfwxulqj
6
:
7
:
5
3
3
3
56
Pdunhw Vhuylfhv
4
47
8
6
4
4
3
3
58
Qrq0pdunhw Vhuylfhv
4
9
<
7
4
3
4
3
55
56
Wdeoh 9= Xqlyduldwh Dqdo|vlv
Jhrjudsklfdo
Frxqwu| Phpehuvkls
+4<:804<<6,
+4<;404<<<,
5
Shulskhu|0Fruh
+4<:804<<6,
+4<;404<<<,
5
Jhrjudsklf Orfdwlrq
+4<:804<<6,
+4<;404<<<,
5
Wudqvsruwdwlrq Qhwzrun
+4<:804<<6,
+4<;404<<<,
5
Djulfxowxudo Lqwhqvlfdwlrq _
+4<:804<<6,
+4<;404<<<,
Srsxodwlrq Jurzwk e| Duhd
+4<:804<<6,
+4<;404<<<,
5
Vhwwohphqw Vwuxfwxuh
+4<:804<<6,
+4<;404<<<,
5
Srolwlfdo
Pdqxidfwxulqj
Pdunhw Vhuylfhv
Qrq0Pdunhw Vhuylfhv
f S WW
f2bDWW
f eSWW
f2b.WW
f ef
f S
fe WW
f D2WW
+618<,
+518:,
+4159,
+7173,
f ebWW
f H2WW
f HfWW
f2.2WW
f fH
f H
f De
f Db
+041:<,
+81:3,
+03185,
+0315:,
f He
f b2
f DWW
f2HeWW
f H
f 2
f beW
f SeW
+03177,
+6184,
+03148,
+4198,
f2bSWW
f22bWW
f2.b
f2SS
f2b2WW
f 2bWW
f HWW
f2b WW
+616<,
+3199,
+041<6,
+5168,
fef2WW
f eHWW
33
33
33
33
33
33
f .WW
f2.fWW
f 2WW
f DfWW
f ef
f S
f 2e
f 2
+8164,
+05134,
+4159,
+3148,
f S WW
f2b.WW
f .WW
f2S.WW
f f2
f 2
f fe
f 2
+617<,
+518:,
+031<<,
+031;;,
f b W
f DHW
f f
f 2f
f e2
f e
f D
f 2
+41<5,
+03185,
+3175,
+4154,
+51<9,
5
Vrflr0Ghprjudsklf
Djulfxowxuh
HX Vwuxfwxudo Ixqg Remhfwlyhv
+4<:804<<6,
+4<;404<<<,
5
Vljqlfdqfh Ohyho -- @ 8( dqg - @ 43(1 Wkh ydoxhv lq erog duh vljqlfdqw1
_
Gdwd duh dydlodeoh rqo| iru wkh djulfxowxudo vhfwru1
57
Wdeoh := Pxowlyduldwh Dqdo|vlv
5
+4<:<04<<6,
K u K C
f2He
+3184,
f2DH
K u K
fS2WW
+919;,
f2.D
+4<:<04<<6,
Djulfxowxuh
Pdqxidfwxulqj
Pdunhw Vhuylfhv
Qrq0Pdunhw Vhuylfhv
+4<;404<<<,
f2be
f2bSWW
KuK
+4<;404<<<,
K u K .L
f2D
+3158,
K u K .L
f2ee
K u K .L
f2.bWW
f2Se
f 2 S
+4173,
f2e2WW
f2 .WW
f2bSWW
+051<<,
f
WW
f2e
5
WW
+4189,
+041;:,
+7185,
F @ Frxqwu| Phpehuvkls/ SF @ Shulskhu|0Fruh/ O @ Jhrjudsklfdo Orfdwlrq/ DJ @ Djulfxowxudo
Lqwhqvlfdwlrq/ S @ Srsxodwlrq Jurzwk e| Duhd/ HX @ Hxurshdq Xqlrq Vwuxfwxudo Ixqgv Remhfwlyhv1
Vljqlfdqfh Ohyho -- @ 8( dqg - @ 43(1 Wkh ydoxhv lq erog duh vljqlfdqw1
58
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5