LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY Faculty of Global Processes 3G: GLOBALISTICS, GLOBAL STUDIES, GLOBALIZATION STUDIES Scientific Digest Edited by I.I. Abylgaziev, I.V. Ilyin MOSCOW – 2012 К К У АР . . а а 3G: И И а И.И. А ы а И Е У а ЕР Е ых И И , И а а а, И. . И К А – 2012 а И , ЦИИ У К 32.001 К 66.0:65.5 67 И.И. А 67 3G: а и и а, а ы а / 2012. – 180 . ( а а . .) ISBN 978-5-317-04127-4 а а а ы ы а а а ы а , а К юч а а , а а: а, а, ( а ) а а а, И. .И а ь и . . . А ы а ых а а. а а . а а щ х а , а, а а а а а а, а ы а а, а . а а ия, И а, . . а щ ы , а а, а а а а а ы, а а а ы а, а и ации: АК , . ы а ы, а а : , - а ия а. – .: а, , . ы, а а а ы а ы ы а а, ,а а а, , а- У К 32.001 К 66.0:65.5 3G: Globalistics, Global Studies, Globalization Studies: Scientific Digest / Ed. by I.I. Abylgaziev, I.V. Ilyin. – Moscow, MAKS Press, 2012. – 180 p. Digest is a collection of articles on Global Studies. It is devoted to theproblems of methodology of global studies and details of global problems, developing of new lines (branches) of Globalistics. It is also focused on globalization and the major current discussions of this process. For students studying global studies, geopolitics, sociology, political science, economics, mathematics, ecology, biology, geology and geography, as well as for the experts in global studies, and interdisciplinary professionals. Key words:Global studies, Globalistics, Global systems, Globalization, Paleoglobalistics, Nooglobalistics, Information Globalistics, Cosmoglobalistics, Futuroglobalistcs, Humanity. ISBN 978-5-317-04127-4  а а ых У, 2012 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 6 METODOLOGY OF GLOBAL STUDIES I.I. Abylgaziev, I.V. Ilyin, R.R. Gabdullin. Introduction to the History and Methodology of Global Studies...................................................................................... 7 GLOBAL PROBLEMS I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Global World from the Perspective of Security ................................ 16 A.V. Ivanov, Ju.N. Sayamov, I.A. Yashkov. Global challenges for cities and search of answers ............................................................................................................ 26 A.S. Rozanov. The Crisis of Multiculturalism ....................................................................... 33 GLOBAL STUDIES I.V. Ilyin, R.R. Gabdullin, A.V. Ivanov. Global Processes and Systems ............................... 37 O.Y. Kornienko. Language factor in global environment ..................................................... 40 T.L. Shestova. Global Historicism and Global History ......................................................... 45 A.N. Chumakov. The Phenomenon of Globalization ............................................................ 54 NEW BRANCHES OF GLOBALISTICS I.V. Ilyin, R.R. Gabdullin, A.V. Ivanov. Paleoglobalistics ................................................... 68 I.V. Ilyn, A.D. Ursul. Nooglobalism and Nooglobalistics ..................................................... 73 I.V. Ilyn, A.D. Ursul. Evolutionary Globalistics................................................................... 80 A.D. Ursul. Cosmoglobalistics (Space or Cosmic Global Studies) ...................................... 87 A.D. Ursul. Information globalitics ....................................................................................... 97 I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Futuro-globalistics: delineation of III millennium global world ....... 103 L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotayev. Political Globalistics............................................................... 113 GLOBALIZATION STUDIES I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Globalization in the context of the transition to socionatural sustainable development ....................................................................................................... 126 ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF GLOBALIZATION I.А. Aleshkovskiy. International Migration, Globalization and Development ....................... 140 V. Pantin. Global Economic and Political Development in the First Half of the 21-st Century: Forecast based on the Wave Conception ............................................ 150 D.I. Trubetskov, A.V. Ivanov, A.A. Koronovsky, A.E. Khramov, I.A. Yashkov. Modelling of Global Processes ............................................................................................. 157 A.I. Andreyev, J.V. Bozhevolnov, E.O. Gorokhova, A.V. Mikhailov, B.V. Bozhevolnov, V.E. Chernov. Global innovation process: systematic approach........................................... 169 INTRODUCTION Global problems of humanity today are really actual. Without their constant discussion, analysis and solutions in a strictly fundamental, scientific or academic communities and in the wider social environment the everyday slice of modern planetary society in general and specific social groups can not be represented. In one of the largest "temple of science" of the world – Lomonosov Moscow State University original of scientific and educational structure – Faculty of Global Processes works since 2005. This digest accumulated ideas and innovative design, born in this Faculty. A more detailed aspectsof Globalistics, Global & Globalization Studies are covered in dozens of monographs and textbooks, published by scientists of the Faculty during the seven years of its active development. This digest has been prepared to brief and general presentationfor the world scientific community and the general reader interested in the Global Studies themes. That is why this publication is timed to the opening of the "International Global Studies Conference" in Moscow in 20–22 June 2012. Global Studies as a young interdisciplinary science is developing so rapidly that constantly new branches appear and start to develop. Some of them were originated “inside”the Faculty of Global Processes (Paleoglobalistics, Neoglobalistics, Futuroglobalistics, Evolutionary Globalistics, Cosmoglobalistics, Global geopolitics and others) and are adequately described in the relevant sections of the proposed digest. To date, an obvious need for continuous training of highly qualified specialists in the field of Global Studies than purposefully engaged at the Faculty of Global Processes by daily improving methodological skills, developing original curricula and using modern innovative educational technologiesis clear. To ensure a high level of training at the Faculty an innovative ideas and developments (including in this digest) in the learning process are used. The authors express the hope that the ideas and results, reflected in the pages of the digest, eventually become the elements of the synthetic theory of Global Studies and will serve to further development of the Moscow School of Globalistics, Global & Globalization Studies in general. METODOLOGY OF GLOBAL STUDIES I.I. Abylgaziev1, I.V. Ilyin2, R.R. Gabdullin3 Introduction to the History and Methodology of Global Studies In this section we will focus our attention on key aspects of history (origin) and methodology of global studies. The detailed survey of literature is not the task of this section as the main goal of the authors is to lay out the essence of global studies from the point of view, existing in Russian scientific schools. It’s not widely known but the founder of the Global Studies in Russia was Mikhail Lomonosov (1711–1765), who was also a founder of the Moscow University. In the year 2011 Russia celebrated his 300-th anniversary. M.V. Lomonosov argued that an integral system of congruent deductions consists of many small truths, the so-called the System of Systems, the Congruence of the Universe, or the PrincipleIntegral of the Universe. This is a universal, global system which embodies all partial truths "There is a universal constant law of Nature, which is in tune with the voice of nature that is everywhere: in unanimity and harmony, in the accuracy of experiments, in diligence, in truthfulness, in a sophisticated structure of arguments, in the consent of all the reasons. I should like to have an all-embracing view of the totality of all the things that never meet a contradiction. I venture on this and rely on the statement that nature clings to its laws, and it is the same everywhere: the corpuscles in the living and the dead animals are moving, in the living and the dead plants are moving, as well as in minerals and inorganic matter - hence, in everything. " Lomonosov studied a number of global processes on the Earth and beyond its boundaries. To fully understand his scientific contribution to this field of knowledge we will pay attention to some of his investigations. First of all he explored the physics of global atmospheric processes. The historic 1753 year saw the release of his fundamental work "The word on the phenomena of the air, resulting from electrical power”. In it he connected the Northern Lights with the electricity phenomenon in the atmosphere (Fig. 1). He explained the electrical nature of this phenomenon, saying that it is excited in the air above the polar regions which is a result of the upper cold air streaming down to the bottom and then accumulating in the highest layers of atmosphere, where it becomes iridescent as in the space with rarefaction. He described the global system of atmospheric circulation on the Earth (Fig. 2). This scientific outlook contributed a lot to the understanding of elements and processes of the atmosphere. The today’s model of dynamics of atmospheric processes (Fig. 3) only specifies the model suggested by Lomonosov. Globalistics is an emerging area of scientific knowledge about global phenomena and processes, which exists in three forms: as an interdisciplinary research field, as the basis for a new world outlook of modern men and as a field of the conflict of interests, covering a wide range of public relations, from economy and politics to culture and ideology. 1 Scientific Supervisor of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Professor. Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Professor. 3 Vice-Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Associated Professor. 2 8 Metodology of Global Studies Figure. 1. Northern Lights. M.V. Lomonosov’s picture "The word on the phenomena of the air, caused by the electrical power" 1753 Figure. 2. The scheme of vertical air flows in the Earth atmosphere. M.V. Lomonosov’s picture "The word on the phenomena of the air, caused by the electrical power" 1753 Nowadays, there is no common all-embracing globalistic concept, which could help to settle the problem of overcoming global crises. The creation and development of such a concept can be seen as a key strategic goal of global studies which is an interdisciplinary field of scientific knowledge. Interconnection of global studies and other scientific fields of knowledge as well as emergence of new disciplines are shown in Fig. 4. On the one hand, it’s evident that global studies are interdependent on sociology, political science, economics, philosophy, that is, on humanitarian branches of knowledge. On the other hand, global studies interact with natural sciences - mathematics, geology, ecology, and paleontology. The interaction of these disciplines gives rise to the main scientific directions in global studies. For example, the junction of global studies and economy results in a global economy, of global studies and political science – political globalistics, of global studies and ecology – global ecology, with paleontology – paleoglobalistics. I.I. Abylgaziev, I.V. Ilyin, R.R. Gabdullin. Introduction to the History and Methodology of Global Studies 9 Figure 3. The scheme of the global circulation of the atmosphere of the Earth The diachronic research in global studies is represented by three scientific areas of different levels, which study the origin and development of global systems and processes, namely, by the Universal History (the history from the Big Bang to the present day), by the Global History (the history of the Earth from the moment of the origin of the solar system and the Earth up to the present), and by the Historical Global Studies (covering the history of globalization from the first civilizations to the present day). The evolutionary trend and the temporal section are studied by paleo-, neo-, futuro- and cosmo-globalistics. The basic directions and branches of global studies are described in papers listed in the reference list at the end of the book. According to the main issues of global research it’s possible to distinguish three main branches within globalistics (see Fig. 5): global problems (challenges), global processes and globalization. Each sphere has its own specific criteria and infers different approaches to their definitions. The subject of globalistics is global evolution, while the object embraces global problems, processes and systems. Global evolution means the totality of coordinated and coevolutionary global processes and systems, as it is defined by supporters of the so-called social-natural approach to global issues. Therefore, global natural processes include global natural processes (GNP), global social-and-natural processes (GSNP) and global social processes (GSP). 10 Metodology of Global Studies Figure 4. Interconnection of global studies and other scientific fields of knowledge and emergence of new disciplines I.I. Abylgaziev, I.V. Ilyin, R.R. Gabdullin. Introduction to the History and Methodology of Global Studies 11 Figure 5. Three main branches of global studies Global natural processes change the physical structure of the planet (its atmo-, bio-, litho-, hydrospheric etc. structure). They cause major natural catastrophes on the planet and in its regions Global social-and-natural processes signify the processes of interaction between the society and nature (environmental, natural resources exploitation, etc.). Global social processes affect the structure of social relations in the world (economic, political, socio-cultural, etc.) There are various types of global systems and processes, occurring in them or in between them. The hierarchical classification of global systems is one of such examples (Fig. 6), covering global social, biological and geological systems. They are usually called socio-sphere, biosphere, lithosphere, etc. Within a system we can distinguish hierarchical levels, which form subsystems, and the lower the level, the more subsystems there are. Global socio-system is represented by civilization, states, etc. Global bio-system includes biocoenosis and different taxonomic groups of living organisms. Global geo-system is presented by a set of geological bodies, plate tectonics, etc. From everything mentioned above it is evident that there is a close interrelatedness of development, that is the co-evolution, and therefore the need for an interdisciplinary approach becomes quite obvious. Now, let us analyze the hierarchical classification of some global processes (Fig. 7), such as the globalization of society, the evolution of life and plate tectonics, which correspond to socio-, bio-and geo-global systems, respectively. The principle of subordination of hierarchical levels and the increase in the number of the constituents, typical of the lower status level, is also applicable to the issue. The globalization of the society implies the whole range of global processes. The global virtual space (vitro -sphere) and one of its components – informatisation are just some of such examples. The evolution of life is represented by a set of complex evolutionary processes, cephalization being its special case. The latter means a sustainable development and complication of brains of living organisms. 12 Metodology of Global Studies Figure 6. The hierarchical classification of global systems Plate tectonics, or movement of large blocks of the crust refers to a set of various tectonic and geological processes, causing the shift of plates in the horizontal and vertical planes. This leads to the appearance and disappearance of oceanic and continental basins in which the accumulation of geological sediments (sedimentation) takes place. Nowadays there is a necessity to more effectively employ modern methods developed in other scientific spheres. These include a synergy approach, an ecological approach (ecology I.I. Abylgaziev, I.V. Ilyin, R.R. Gabdullin. Introduction to the History and Methodology of Global Studies 13 in its broad meaning being the science which studies the interaction of systems of different levels of organization), and an evolutionary approach. They are to help us better understand global processes with the help of the concept of co-evolution of Geo-spheres and etc. Figure 7. The hierarchical classification of some global processes 14 Metodology of Global Studies Figure 8. Temporal branches of globalistics Temporal criterion in global studies. Taking into consideration everything mentioned above, it is possible to approach to the main temporal "sections" of globalistics. It leads us to distinguishing between some temporal branches (Fig. 8), that is, between paleoglobalistics (co-evolution of global processes and systems of the past), neo-globalistics (coevolution of global processes and systems of the present) and futuro-globalistics (co-evolution of global processes and systems of the future). Moreover, the vector of co-evolution can be traced within each of these diachronic sections even though they do not have clear boundaries. Temporal boundaries between the branches of globalistics.Paleo-globalistics originated from the moment of the Earth formation, when there were many systems and processes, which are now either completely or almost non-existent,or they aregreatly changed, giving rise to the present systems and processes. Nevertheless, some of these processes and systems are quite topical today. Global processes and phenomena of the present are studied by neo-globalistics and scholars studying global processes and systems are already discussing and forecasting global trends for systems and processes of the future. They are in fact handling the problems of futuro-globalistics. I.I. Abylgaziev, I.V. Ilyin, R.R. Gabdullin. Introduction to the History and Methodology of Global Studies 15 Shifts of dominant global systems and processes, and their co-evolution constitute the subject of evolutionary globalistics (Fig. 9). This branch defines exact time-periods when one phase of global development gives way to another one. Up to now all the global processes and systems have been investigated as applied to the Earth, but human development has a welldefined vector directed towards the outer space colonization. In the nearest future we are to approach a new stage, the “cosmo-globalistics” stage, and then, cosmo-globalistics will become a most topical issue, which will study cosmic impact on global processes and systems (Fig. 9). Figure 9. Branches of globalistics in spacialand temporal coordinates (time and space) GLOBAL PROBLEMS I.V. Ilyin1, A.D. Ursul2 Global World from the Perspective of Security The world which is now being shaped is filled with new threats and dangers of the planetary scale, which may lead to global crises and even planetary catastrophes. Increasing number of challenges, threats and dangers in the course of acceleration of global processes means that national and global security in all its forms and shapes becomes one of the priority human goals, values and challenges of the XXI century, related to preservation and further development of civilization. To a significant extent awareness of global problems especially after the first reports of the Club of Rome brought to life the term "globalistics" (Fig. 1). Awareness of the dangers of the global problems especially after the first reports of the Club of Rome brought to life using the term "globalistics” (A.N. Chumakov) Figure 1. Security and Globalistics In our opinion, the problem of security is clearly underestimated in science and requires much more attention than it now holds. The same observation can be attributed to the development of globalistics as there is little number of research works devoted to the problem of security in global perspective. This is especially important for the evolutionary globalistics, which naturally include study of security issues. 1 2 Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Professor. Academician, Professor of Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU. I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Global World from the Perspective of Security 17 The number of fragments of reality and objects that are involved in research in the field of security is growing, therefore it is impossible to set a certain limit in advance. The ‘expansionary’ trend of the concept and the notion of security over scientific knowledge, which leads to the expansion of the conceptual problems of security, is based on the principle of conservation of matter (energy), which was introduced into science by Mikhail Lomonosov, which allows further expansion and meaningful transformation of this concept (Fig. EG. 2). Figure 2. The Notion of Security (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) The risks associated with most global problems, as well as negative global processes, generally may lead to the death of civilization and all living beings on this planet already in the first centuries of the third millennium. In the order of priority (ranking) of hazards it can be assumed that the largest dangers (or threat as more concrete and immediate form of danger) are priorities for humanity. If the danger is global, it applies to all the intelligent as well as all living beings in the biosphere, and in this sense it is a top priority. Global development exacerbates the contradictions of social and socio-natural dynamics, which for the sake of resolution require a fundamental change in traditional forms and ways of life of people as well as in the way of their interaction with nature. The study of global problems has revealed that their worsening is mainly due to the aggravation of the negative aspects of global processes, including the drawbacks of globalization. It might be worth noting that globalization is not the only factor which led to global problems, their emergence and aggravation can be contributed to other processes of global socio-economic development, especially with the negative and risk-carrying content. Among such processes are the following: the ever-increasing gap between the rich and the poor (which can equally be attributed to people within one society and the whole countries or regions), damage to the global environment, loss of biodiversity and depletion of fish stocks, desertification of fertile lands, adverse effects of climate change, etc. We witness emergence of the new global challenges and negative global processes that are either caused by globalization, or are associated with this it. For example, the beginning of the third millennium has already been marked by spread of global terrorism, drug threat, the new virus outbreaks, etc. Judging only by the name it is clear that many global problems reflect either negative or dangerous phenomena that must be eliminated (overcome) in the course of further development (Fig. 3). 18 Global Problems Figure 3. Global Negative Processes (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) In our opinion, aside from the global problems there are also global (planetary) processes in the aggregate social activities and nature which are neither globalization nor global problems, despite their mostly negative content. What many of the negative (destructive) trends and processes of social or socio-natural character on the global scale have in common with globalization is the fact that they are expanding their sphere of influence across the planet. However they do not aim at gaining the planetary integrity of the mankind. I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Global World from the Perspective of Security 19 Such global processes are also involved in global development, but negatively, i.e. these processes are regressive from an evolutionary point of view. Therefore it is important to reduce their impact significantly, while simultaneously increasing advantages of global development in the course of planetary governance, which is what the sustainable development strategy is aimed at. It is necessary to influence global processes so that they do not develop spontaneously as it has been so far, but in a controlled sustainable way which is the most promising approach to ensure survival of the civilization (see "Global Governance" and "Futuroglobalistics"). It is worth noting that global governance must also focus on the processes of maintaining global security (Fig. 4). Figure 4. The Global Security – Security of the of the world community is realized in the co-evolution of systems of "Man – Society" and "Man – Society – Nature" (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) As for the global processes which have an entirely adverse effect on the mankind and are caused by globalization or are any other way connected with it, they should be either eliminated (which is not always entirely possible) or minimized to the extent when global security is ensured through the shift towards sustainable development. Negative consequences are also caused by the number of natural processes such as eruption of supervolcanoes (which happens approximately once every 100,000 years), as well 20 Global Problems as forest fires, etc. At present increasing seismic and volcanic activity is registered across the planet. One of the last global natural catastrophes of such magnitude occurred about 75,000 years ago. It was the eruption of the Toba supervolcano in Indonesia which led to a sharp reduction in the number of human ancestors. It led to destruction of the food chains and intensified competition for remaining resources which were scarce because of the long volcanic winter. It is possible that within the next dozen or a hundred years this eruption could happen again triggered by increased volcanic activity (Fig. 5). Figure 5. Eruption of a Supervolcano At present the Yellowstone Supervolcano located in the Yellowstone national park, U.S. poses the greatest threat. It erupted 2.1 million years ago, next eruption occurred about 1.2 million years ago, and the last one is approximated to 640 thousand years ago. It demonstrates a trend with a periodicity of about 600 thousand years. Thus, it is clear that the period of its destructive activity is approaching (according to forecasts, eruption could happen within decades or centuries, if not in the next few years). Should the Supervolcano explode, it will destroy not only America, but most of the planet, which will be a globalnatural and socionatural catastrophe. Figure 6. Globaltransition to Sustainable Development (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Global World from the Perspective of Security 21 As it has already been mentioned shift to sustainable development will ensure survival of civilization in spite of global problems, disadvantages of globalization and destructive global processes. In this case, negative global trends will be replaced by the positive ones which is now transition to sustainable development (Fig. 6). This type of strategy as a new emerging systemic evolutionary positive global process involves not only achieving integrity of the mankind, but also prevention and protection against traditional and new global risks and threats. If transition to sustainable development is the solution to the global problems, shift of globalization to the goals of such development will contribute to survival of the civilization and preservation of the biosphere. The key idea behind the shift of globalization and other global processes to sustainable development is that global governance will significantly reduce negative impact and strengthen positive effects. The new concept which will ensure survival and global security must combine new planetary type of development and security of the international community, which means ensuring safety of any positive processes through global transition to sustainable development (Fig. 7). Security through the sustainable development – the principle of ensuring national and global security through a transition to asustainable socio-natural development Figure 7. Ensuring Security through Sustainable Development We would like to draw attention to two essential points in the concept of security that must be taken into account in its new variant which for now will be called "sustainable" security, as opposed to "protective security". In this context the terms "protective" and "sustainable" are used only to distinguish the concept of security related to unsustainable development from the model of sustainable one. In the model of unsustainable development the protective concept can be expressed in the following way (Fig. 8.): Security = Protection/Threat Figure 8. Symbolic Formula of ‘Protective’ Security 22 Global Problems ‘Threat’ is the degree of danger, which can be expressed in certain measurable units (for example, variety of adverse effects).‘Protection’ stands for the degree of safety of the object, measured in the same units. The degree of security is expressed with an appropriate coefficient ‘Security’, which equals 1 if all the threats are countered by appropriate measures. Accordingly, the ‘Security’ coefficient is less than 1 if certain negative trends do have effect on the object (be it nature or society). The key difference of the ‘sustainable security’ concept from the ‘protective’ one is that the former involves a stipulation that security and development are intrinsically linked. It means that as development in its essence must ensure security (both internal and external), so security should be inseparable from self-development of an object. These are two sides of one medal, which is safe self-development of an object. This intrinsic relationship can be realized solely in a model of sustainable development, when the latter itself insures security. Another important discrepancy between ‘sustainable’ security concept and ‘protective’ one is that it involves understanding of the fact that the security of the part (element) of the system depends on the security of the whole. Taking into account that we live in a world community it is impossible to ensure security of one particular country when the global community is in menace. It is equally naive to assume that without protecting biosphere we can ensure safety of the humanity (or any particular country, even the most developed one), unless security is provided on the global scale. For example, efforts of each country to ensure environmental safety within their borders are highly valued; however, environmental safety of any particular country should not weaken the global environmental security. All actions taken by a particular country should be based on the global priorities (of course, unless there is a direct threat to people's lives and existence of the biota in a given local ecosystem). These requirements will be met only if international community adopts sustainable development strategy. It is necessary to take into account that almost 99% of the biota capacity is spent on the vital function of stabilization and regulation of the environment. It should not be surprising, as in the course of biological evolution there were five massive extinction events; the earliest of them, the Ordovician-Silurian extinction, occurred 440 million years ago and destroyed about 86% of all species on Earth. The most destructive yet was the Permian extinction event which took place 251 million years ago, when more than 95% of all species inhabiting the planet were wiped off the face of the Earth. A relatively recent massive extinction event some 65 million years ago, which is associated with an asteroid collision, resulted in the extinction of giant reptiles along with the sixth part of all living beings. We can also assume that society devotes lion's share of efforts to security even though it has never been estimated, mainly because the security has always been seen form a ‘protective’ point of view. Costs of any protection-devoted processes are attributed to maintaining security, while the remaining funds are devoted to its progressive development. As between development and security there is a constant ratio, by the law of conservation of energy, effort (funds) spent on security should be deducted from the total amount of energy, funds, effort, etc. that could be used for the progressive development (Fig. 9): Development+Security=const Figure 9. Symbolic Formula of Interdependence of Development and Security I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Global World from the Perspective of Security 23 This is why it is important to combine both progressive development and security so that they do not come into conflict, i.e. create social and socio-natural environment where security is ensured by a sustainable development. It is necessary to achieve optimum balance between development and security. Another issue worth mentioning is establishing the so-called ‘global justice’, which, in our opinion, may be realized in one form or another at a certain stage of planetary transition to sustainable development. Global justice would be a political process of harmonizing interests and resolving conflicts without resorting to violence in any form. It might characterize the shift towards sustainable development in contrast to the historical injustice associated with the model of unsustainable development with use of force as a prevailing solution. At this point political globalistics and global politics are becoming the main form of reconciling the interests of individuals (and their conceptions of global justice) and political institutions at the national and international scale in order to address global problems and optimize global processes for the transition to sustainable development. In contrast to the political goals in the model of unsustainable development political globalistics, which is aimed at sustainable development, regards not only individuals and groups (societies), but also entire humanity asan integral subject of global activity. The goal of this activity is to ensure survival not only of the individuals, but of the humanity in a stable environment. Balancing social and socio-natural interactions as well as transition to consensus-based co evolutionary relations means applying the principle of justice to the current generation as well as to the future ones. In the spotlight there is now the social (distributive) justice as a ratio of the person’s contribution to the benefits he receives along with equal distribution of basic goods, such as human rights and freedoms, environmentally safe living conditions, etc (Fig. 10). Justice= Benefits/Contribution Figure 10. Symbolic Formula of Justice Under the sustainable development concept equal distribution of basic goodsthat satisfy essential needs of a person should apply to the entire mankind at present and in the future (for indefinite period of time). At the same time more attention should be paid distributive justice which stipulates rewarding people in accordance with their contributions to the society (state, or humanity). It is fairly obvious how unjust is the desire of modern generations to improve their living conditions at the expense the future generations. Therefore the principle justice must be ‘translated’ into the future thus distributing natural resources among the modern and future generations. It is even more so for the environmental conditions which are connected with protection of the biosphere. Development of the civilization must change its essence and form and apply the principle of social justice to the present and future generations (Fig. 11.) SD = Satisfaction of needs of the = present generations Satisfaction of needs of the future generations Figure 11. Sustainable Development (SD) from the Perspective of Temporal Equality of Opportunities to Meet the Needs of Present and Future Generations If we want to preserve the biosphere, the current generations will have to fulfill their vital needs and develop economy within environmental capacity of ecosystems 24 Global Problems (biogeocenoses), taking into account that exceeding these limits leads to destruction of ecosystems and degradation of the biosphere in the future. Improvement of human well-being and growth of the population of the planet are limited by these environmental (and natural resources) boundaries. Along with the socio-temporal global expansion of the principle of justice (and thus, the security) in the future it will be necessary to respect the ‘interests of nature’, or more accurately to preserve the biosphere and other natural objects, allow the possibility of their further evolution by natural laws, and reject the ‘conquest of nature’ strategy. Expansion of the principle of ‘socio-natural’ justice (and to some extent of the global security) in time and space and in combination with consensus-based and consolidating mechanisms allows shift to the new principles and foundations of global security which comply with the prospective development of civilization in the third millennium (Fig. 12). It would be false to confine the prospective global sustainable development to ensuring global and other kinds of security in spite of it being one of the main goals of the new civilization development. An equally important goal is to provide for progressive sustainable development of the global community as a self-organizational evolutionary movement in any sphere of human activity and socio-natural interactions. Saving the future generations Saving the current generation on the Planet Sustainable Development Savingofnature (Biosphereand Space) Figure 12. Sustainable Development as a Means to Preserve Nature and Humanity The above mentioned ideas are already beginning to be used in the documents of strategic forecasting content and legal acts in our country. In the National Security Strategy until 2010, as of May 12, 2009 the concept of sustainable development is widely used as a means to ensure national security of Russia. Undoubtedly, this strategy is based on the principle of providing the national security through sustainable development priorities (Fig. 13). The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation is an example to be followed by other countries which are concerned with ensuring national interests and security, as well as with efficient transition to sustainable development of the global community. The Strategy marks emergence of the fundamentally new approaches of the governments towards their I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Global World from the Perspective of Security 25 future, which becomes inseparable from the world development and future of the humanity. It has a significant impact on geopolitical processes (to a certain extent this has already affected adoption of the National Security Strategy of the USA in May 2010). Figure 13. Providing National Securitythrough Sustainable Development: Russian president's decree about the National Security Strategy to 2020 We have to take into account the global scenario which is associated with the shift to sustainable development and is recommended by the UN as the desirable direction of development. In the light of the sustainable scenario the geopolitical future of the international community might be greatly transformed. With the advance of globalization and global problems, geopolitical processes are bound to undergo radical transformation. Until recently these processes have been extensive: annexation of territory by force which is the traditional geopolitical approach still prevailing in the Euro-Atlantic model of globalization. Although division of territories has actually 26 Global Problems ended, a number of countries still pursue extensive power-based geopolitics due to the ‘geopolitical inertia’. Transition to sustainable development provides for new geopolitical processes and shift from extensive power-based approach to economic and other intensive co evolutionary forms of civilization geopolitical process. Existence of the unsustainable model development does not allow many countries to reject the expansionist geopolitical strategy. This is especially evident in the USA which created a unipolar world order. Transformation of the unipolar world order into multipolar is compatible with the goals of sustainable development. Being just and fair to all the countries it is the common goal of the entire mankind and will require creation of a multipolar consensus-based world order. At the same time, according to the new global geopolitical paradigm, security and sustainable (first and foremost socio-economic) development should be integrated into a single conceptual and ideological system. After all, the new security model will be ensured through sustainable development and its priorities whilst the country’s sustainable development will organically include national security. These two notions will no longer be separate as they are now (in the model of unsustainable development) with socio-economic development being a top priority and security being supplemental. Currently security issues are attracting more and more attention thus pushing aside the development issue. In the prospective model of sustainable development national and global security will be achieved not through protection but primarily through development. It will be self-maintaining well-balanced sustainable development, which will not produce (and, moreover, greatly augment the number of) dangers, threats, negative consequences and etc. The new model will involve other principles of development and maintaining security of the state, society and the individuals. These principles will form a coherent and harmonious system which will contribute to preservation of the civilization and nature. A.V. Ivanov1, Ju.N. Sayamov2, I.A. Yashkov3 Global challenges for cities and search of answers Urbanization is a global socially-nature historical process of growth of urban population, increasing a role of cities and their territorial development. It is also a process of distribution of a city way of life and city culture in society development, connected with spatial concentration of activity in comparatively rare centers and areas of mainly social and economic development city settlements and their systems (Abylgaziev and others, 2011). Urbosphere is a global socially-nature system. A huge variety of types of the city settlements created by a human society since its genesis and connected among themselves by elements of an engineering infrastructure (transport networks, overground and underground communications, etc) is unique property of the urbanized space. Modern structure of the Earth covers is the evolution result of a planet and life on it. At interaction of natural (geological 1 Director of Mass-Media Center of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Head of the Department of UNESCO Branch in SSTU, Dean of the Faculty of Ecology and Service Gagarin SSTU, Professor. 2 Chair of the UNESCO Department of Global Problems of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Associated Professor. 3 Vice-Dean of the Faculty of Ecology and Service Gagarin SSTU, Head of the Laboratory of the Engineer Geoecology, Associated Professor. A.V. Ivanov, Ju.N. Sayamov, I.A. Yashkov. Global challenges for cities and search of answers 27 and geomorphological substratum, relief, microclimate etc.) and anthropogenous factors new, natural-anthropogenous covers are formed. Urbosphere concerns to the most expressed of them. City spaces are capable to absorb anthroposphere elements in prospect (technosphere) and represent growth points of the urbosphere. Urbosphere is spatially blocked with a geographical cover covering the top part of a lithosphere and the bottom part of an atmosphere. The question on borders, on their geometrical features, on cover volumes, on changes of borders and the general configuration of the urbosphere in time of an urbosphere remains debatable (Fig. 1). Peaks of the highest engineering constructions (skyscrapers, towers, flights of aircrafts etc.) can define the top border of urbosphere content. Elements of deep technical communications and networks (mines of the underground, military-oriented objects, mining developments etc.) can define the bottom border of the urbosphere. Global regularity of the urbosphere – the general direction of development (evolutionary orientation) – is expressed in change of the sizes, outlines, volume, subtrance redistribution and bonds inside of the urbosystem and in the containing volume of a boundary geospheres. The bright fact of growth of Moscow city space, St. Petersburg city space and the other big cities of Russia can be numerous examples of active developments of structures. This growth occurs for the account both development of new natural territories and absorbtion of existing settlements (according to various calculations by 2006 the Moscow agglomeration has taken over nearby 60 existing settlements). Figure 1. The synthesized space picture of the Earth at night. Brightness degree objectively reflects intensity of global process of an urbanization. The fractal-cellular structure of the urbosphere as a global system is well traced Antiurbosphere is a global socially-nature system. Studying of the crisis and catastrophic phenomenons in geographical space mastered by a person is actual now in sciences about the Earth and global ecology. First of all it concerns large settlements – city system, in which territories geologically dangerous natural and technogenic processes develop. These processes are creating threat for comfortable existence and life of the population. Overground and underground space of city system, used by a person, is considered as one of planet covers called urbosphere (urbanized sphere). It has arisen and develops on contact of a noosphere with other geospheres (first of all lithosphere). However, 28 Global Problems political, economic, social and ecological factors of development of city system are capable to create condition for occurrence in it of elements antiurbosphere condition (destruction and degradation urbosphere) and lead finally to the death of cities. Antiurbosphere is a planet cover, antipodal in relation to urbosphere, existing on the Earth owing to various evolutionary mechanisms (first of all, as a result of “favorable” conditions of destructive development of elements of urbosphere) (Yashkov and others, 2010). It is considered to be that the top border of urbosphere contents – visible zone of dispersion is absent, to be exact, is washed away. The bottom border is expressed by elements of the thrown technical communications and networks (the thrown mines of the underground, military-oriented objects, open-cast mines etc.) The basic contents of urbosphere is a system of “dead” cities. Dead city is a) generally, product of global process of an urbanization – an element of antiurbosphere in which processes of elements functioning of a city ecosystem, of natural and technogenic environment and city population are absent or considerably broken; b) literally, type of settlement with completely destroyed infrastructure, left by inhabitants owing to influence of political, historical, economic, ecological or other factors. Figure 2. Geography of “dead” cities in The Northern and The South America (dots) A.V. Ivanov, Ju.N. Sayamov, I.A. Yashkov. Global challenges for cities and search of answers 29 The results of research of Russian and English published sources of the literature on demographic subjects, statistical directories and electronic resource of the Internet have allowed to execute schemes on world territory, and also separately Russia and Kazakhstan (Fig. 2–4). The term “dead city” isn’t standart. One of the term, met in the scientific literature, is the abandoned city (the left city). It is one of the versions of dead cities. It is the city settlements left by inhabitants at various times and for various reasons: because of recession of economic activity, wars, natural and technogenic disasters or etc. The motive of abandondment of cities plays major importance at allocation of a category of the left cities and attempts of their classification. The voluntary or compulsory character of the motive also plays an important role. Active use in the scientific literature and electronic mass media of the term “unpromising cities” is observed, in particular, in Russia, with reference to special group of city settlements. These city settlements called as monoprofile cities (monocity) owing to historical and industrial features and social and economic realities. The term “ghost-city” is more often used for this category of settlements in the American English literature. The settlements left by inhabitants as a result of exhaustion of stocks of natural resources (coal, gold, silver, iron ores, ores of nonferrous metals etc.) are more often considered as ghost-cities in the USA. Exact conformity to the term “dead city” or “ghost-city” doesn’t exist in the German literature. Unique exact conformity (borrowed from Russian researchers) of a definition “die tote Stadt” is applied in the published sources to two cities – to Chernobyl and to Pripyat (Ukraine). They have suffered from explosion of an atomic power station in 1986. Neverthless, in Germany there are also unpromising cities settlements, arising, for example, as a result of necessity of expansions of the mining developments area. The city Pier serves a unique example of such phenomenon. It is settled and demolished now in connection with expansion of the open-cast mine area on extraction of brown coal (Fig. 5). Figure 3. Geography of “dead” cities in Russia 30 Global Problems Fig. 4. Geography of “dead” cities in Kazakhstan In Kazakhstan in Russian and Kazakh scientific publications and mass media, the term “destructive cities” is more often used. It is legislatively fixed by a number of government directives and presidential decrees. The indicative object showing an example of a destructive development of the city, of the natural and technogenic environment and of the lithosphere is Zhanatas. In this city the deterioration of underground communication reaches 70–90%, the considerable part of inhabited and industrial sectors is destroyed. Environment in vicinities of a city is considerably destroyed as a result of 50-years-old operation by the enterprises of mining manufacture (Fig. 6). Figure 5. Unpromising settlement Pier, Germany Figure 6. The open-cast mine flooded with underground waters on extractions of phosphorites around destructive city Zhanatas, Kazakhstan 31 A.V. Ivanov, Ju.N. Sayamov, I.A. Yashkov. Global challenges for cities and search of answers 80 74 70 60 50 48 40 30 20 18 10 0 0 1 2 1901‐ 1910 1911‐ 1920 1921‐ 1930 7 8 1931‐ 1940 1941‐ 1950 10 9 5 1951‐ 1960. 1961‐ 1970 1971‐ 1980 1981‐ 1990 1991‐ 2000 2001‐ 2010 Figure 7. Dynamics of number of the disappeared settlements during 1901 on 2011 years Figure 8. Distribution of the disappeared settlements of Russia on type during 1901 on 2011 years 32 Global Problems Researches of statistical data and the published sources of the literature on demographic subjects in Russia for 1901–2011 years show presence of increasing dynamics of number of the disappeared settlements. Their sharp jump is observed from the beginning of 90th years and to the present time (Fig. 7). The considerable share among categories of settlements, which have been liquidated, is occupied with settlements of city and rural type (Fig. 8). The reasons of degradation and definite liquidation of unpromising settlements in Russia and the world aren’t classified now. In a general view, all settlements which have disappeared for 1901–2011 can be divided as follow (Fig. 9). Figure 9. The reasons of degradation and destruction of city settlements during 1901 on 2011 years The further researchers of a problem of urbosphere and antiurbosphere functioning are possible in a direction of the analysis of the evolution reasons of city settlements in promising. The working out of classification of similar problem city settlements, recommendations about their perspective functional use are also possible. Special question at studying of the “dead city” phenomenon is the problem of global-geoecological pollution of a planet as a result of occurrence of new unpromising settlements. Literature 1. Abylgaziev I.I., Gabdullin R.R., Ilyin I.V., Ivanov A.V., Yashkov I.A. The global sociallynature processes and systems.Moscow: Publ. MGU, 2011. 256 p. 2. Yashkov I.A., Ivanov A.V., Kuskov A.S., Baranov V.A. The “dead” cities in geoecological and cultural space. – Moscow: Publishing House “Kamerton”, 2010. 212 p. A.S. Rozanov. The Crisis of Multiculturalism 33 A.S. Rozanov1 The Crisis of Multiculturalism Various European leaders have voiced their opinions and agreed that multiculturalism has failed in Europe. But what does the discourse actually mean? In October 2010 German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared that the «multikulti» approach to integration does not work in Germany. She stated that the policy to build a multicultural society with people of different backgrounds “living side by side” has “utterly failed”. Her comments came amid rising anti-immigrant sentiments in Germany, supported by a survey reflecting that 30% of Germans felt the country was «overrun by foreigners». She was joined by British Prime Minister David Cameron who several months later argued a similar theme. In a speech in Munich he said the «doctrine of multiculturalism» has failed and only encouraged “different cultures to live separate lives, apart from each other and apart from the mainstream”. A week later, French President Nicolas Sarkozy echoed the same sentiments. He took the opportunity to reiterate his concerns on the need for better policies to promote cultural assimilation and ensure that immigrants follow the French model of political and cultural assimilation. Analysts and observers of such narratives across Europe also point out a commonality across the discourse of all three leaders: they generally highlight concerns pertaining to Muslim immigrants, although they are careful to distinguish between Islam and radical extremism. Nevertheless, it is not by sheer coincidence that Merkel’s statements were made amid debates on Muslim immigrants. They followed the publication of former central banker ThiloSarrazin’s controversial book accusing Muslim immigrants of lowering the intelligence of German society. Figure 1. Degree of Cultural Change 1 Head of the Scientific Department of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU. 34 Global Problems It also cannot be dismissed that Cameron singled out young Muslims for better integration to combat home-grown extremism. Sarkozy was even more blatant in directing at «Muslim compatriots» and the need for a «French Islam and not just an Islam in France». What are the possible factors driving them to point to ‘multiculturalism’ as the source of their problems? The first possible explanation is that blaming failed multiculturalism is an indirect strategy to confront greater issues at hand. Extreme right-wing parties have gained popularity through playing the immigration card. They tap into the sentiments of xenophobia and the fear of losing traditional cultural identity to alien cultures. By embracing the narrative of failed multiculturalism and championing the need for greater integration of immigrants, leaders such as that of Germany and France are executing a strategy of attempting to limit the discursive ground of the right-wing parties by widening their own scope. This way, they hope to ‘broaden the respectable right’ (including integration efforts for immigrants) in order to restrict the reach of the extreme right (who are completely against immigration). Such was the assessment of Sarkozy’s approach to the challenge of France’s National Front. It is also applicable to Merkel who tried to accommodate two sides of a debate on addressing immigration and integration in Germany. The second issue is that hostility to immigration is made complex with the problem of Islamist extremism, “home-grown” terrorism and Islamophobia. A classic example is Britain. The existence of a minority but vocal group of radical Muslims has threatened the image of the broader British Muslim community. Homegrown terrorism is indeed a serious security threat, requiring an all-inclusive national effort. Yet the roots of the problem cannot be tackled by approaching through the guise of failed multiculturalism. In fact, doing so may simply make matters worse. Such a wide narrative would only undermine the efforts and successes of well-integrated European Muslims as illustrated by the reactions following the speeches by the respective political leaders. Finally, one must also not dismiss the socio-economic factor: All the frustrations and disgruntled sentiments which the extreme right-wing parties have successfully tapped into could also stem from socio-economic reasons. With Europe only beginning to rise from the ashes of an economic crisis, it is only convenient that the related frustrations are vent out in such a manner, against immigration – a phenomenon produced by globalization, and is gaining momentum. Indirect measures such as blaming failed multiculturalism may not produce effective results. Having identified the actual issues at hand, the solutions prescribed need to hit the nail on the head. The European leaders are already looking in the right direction by proposing more integration policies to cultivate a stronger national identity. However, these promising policies also need to be directed appropriately. As many scholars and analysts have pointed out, attention needs to be particularly focused on the youths of the second generation immigrants onwards who were born in Europe as they nurse both a sense of rootlessness and struggle to keep up in the socio-economic race. The new policies must also actively consider the fact that effective integration must involve a substantial amount of engagement with the local host community. Indeed, integration is a two-way process that involves interaction within the greater whole. To do so, policymakers must be aware of a key coping mechanism common to Diaspora communities: A.S. Rozanov. The Crisis of Multiculturalism 35 they tend to maintain themselves as a separate community for familiarity and support. Here, policymakers could look into moderating the communal tendencies to help them break out of their comfort zones, hence facilitating integration. Figure 2. Multiculturalism Policy Index Scores for Selected Countries, 1980–2010 Finally, there is also the need to dispel the idea that being a Muslim would be incompatible with being a European citizen who ascribes to the European constitutional values and principles. It is in fact possible to distinguish between a French Muslim, a British Muslim or a German Muslim (See Figure 3). Here, the distinguishing qualities stem from the characteristics normally associated or belonging to the respective nations. National identity can be an added dimension to pre-existing multiple identities within an individual. It would, however, be overambitious to expect all other identities to be dropped in favour of one. In an era of globalization, diverse identities and characteristics cannot be suppressed in the name of uniformity but the concept of belonging to a nation can still persist. 36 Global Problems Source: Pew global attitude project (poll), 2010. Figure 3. Integration or disintegration? GLOBAL STUDIES I.V. Ilyin1, R.R. Gabdullin2, A.V. Ivanov3 Global Processes and Systems Global processes of the Earth are the result of interactions of its global systems, so we consider them in the aggregate. As we have already stated above, natural processes are one of the elements of global processes. Global natural processes exist not only on the Earth, but in outer space, for example, on primary planets. Most of the global natural processes are identical or similar to each other on different planets (volcanic activity, rotation of planets, atmospheric processes on Mars, Venus and so on). They have a key impact on all cosmic bodies including our planet. Origin of the Universe, the Solar System and the Earth is subject matter of universal and global history. Paleoglobalistics, in turn, is a study of evolution of the Earth, its global systems and processes in historic perspective, as well as evolution of life. Interaction of cosmic bodies is explored in astronomy and astrophysics. Global natural processes of the Earth are one of the objects of study in globalistics. In our view, the Earth is a complex of natural systems. Lithosphere (global geosystem) is outer solid part of the planet. Gravitational field determines spherical form of the Earth and existence of atmosphere (global aerial system) and hydrosphere (global aquatic system). Cryosphere (global system of ice and snow) is water in frozen state. Presence of water and air means existence of life, i.e. existence of biosphere (global biosystem). Pedosphere (global soil system) is the result of life sustenance of organisms, urbosphere (global urban system) was formed by human activity. According to hierarchical principle, every system contains elements – systems of lower rank (in Fig. 1). Global natural systems interact via global natural processes, most of them are processes of supra(inter)system rank. For instance, water circulation as a global process exists in every system (in Fig. 2, Tab. 1). The examples of particular global processes are presented in the lowest row of the table. Table 1 Inter(supra)system global natural processes Atmosphere Water precipitation 1 Hydrosphere Water evaporation Cryosphere Pedosphere Water freezing Lithosphere Biosphere Water Cycle Water Water release Water infiltration (during absorption volcanic ejection) Urbosphere (Urban Sphere) Water pollution Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Professor. Vice-Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Associated Professor. 3 Director of Mass-Media Center of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Head of the Department of UNESCO Branch in SSTU, Dean of the Faculty of Ecology and Service Gagarin SSTU, Professor. 2 38 Global Studies Another example, erosion, is destruction and transfer of upper soil layers and rocks, occurs in lithosphere and pedosphere and involves influence of hydrosphere and atmosphere. However, erosion is a part of global “circulation” of precipitations, one of the elements in chain of accumulation, destruction and transfer of rock (in Fig. G.3). Circulation of precipitations is global natural inter(supra)system process too. Figure 1. Hierarchy of global natural systems and processes Figure 2. Cycle of water as global natural inter system process. Numbers show the volume in thousands of cubic miles I.V. Ilyin, R.R. Gabdullin, A.V. Ivanov. Global Processes and Systems 39 Figure 3. “Circulation” of precipitations as global natural intersystem process There are many intersystem circulations, or cycles of global natural processes: cycle of oxygen, carbon dioxide, carbon, nitrogen and other elements and compounds. In addition to suprasystem global natural processes there are processes specific to its system (see Fig. G.4). It should be noted, that many of natural processes are actually processes of socio-natural type. Everyone knows facts of floods, earthquakes, mudslides, avalanching, dips ofearth surface caused by human activity. Figure 4. Hierarchy of global socio-natural processes and systems 40 Global Studies O.Y. Kornienko1 Language factor in global environment Nowadays science focuses mainly on global trends that should lead to a more or less unified community of human-beings. The trends towards integration are very strong today due to cross-border migration, trans-national corporations, common fiscal mechanisms, similar legislation, ecological issues etc. Less attention is paid to the needs of nations and people. This negligence can result in great political and social problems because human nature often stands up against unification and generalization, trying to adhere to what is near and dear, to national identity which is based on common language and culture. This article is an attempt to highlight some trends in languages evolution with prospects of moving towards global lingua franca or even single global language. The subject matter of creating a lingua franca in a historical perspective is longer than the European civilization and it was always embedded in the type of production technologies which shaped economic relations in the society [1]. The economic environment led to the competition and selection which has characterized the coexistence of languages since probably the beginning of agriculture. Therefore, it is important to understand the conditions that sustain or affect the diversity of languages. Besides, it is advisable to pay particular attention to factors that have favored particular languages at the expense of others, factors which lie in the changing socioeconomic conditions to which speakers respond adaptively for their survival. At the time when all sciences and scholars speak in terms of “profits and losses” it is important to see reasons pragmatically and assess the experience of some populations in terms of what costs and benefits they have derived from language shift in their particular socioeconomic ecology. The number of languages is constantly decreasing as the process of globalization kills languages (and the further the more), shifting the accent to the knowledge of the English language because it is the language of economics and business, the language of the most developed country. Different nations appreciate the phenomenon differently, some languages die and nobody pays attention to the fact (Indian languages, African ones, Chinese dialects, languages of Northern people etc.), in other cases people try to isolate themselves from the reality of global challenges, some of them sacrifice their own language to the benefits of global development and get economic assets in return. But we can not ignore the fact that today the speed of the process is unprecedented. The facts speak for themselves: 80 % of the information in the Net is in English, the English-speaking countries produce 40% of global GDP, English has a status of a state language in more than fifty countries in the Eastern and Western semi-spheres [2]. It should be also taken into account that by the beginning of the 21 century the number of speakers for whom it is a mother tongue has shrunken from 9,8% of all the humankind to 7,6 %, Chinese and its dialects being used by 18,8% of the world population. One can clearly see that English is becoming more and more a lingua franca of the modern world. Never before there existed a language that has acquired the status of the “language of scale” to be used in international communication . However, there are about 6800 languages in the world. The number, notwithstanding the losses of the previous centuries is quite prominent. At the same time we should take into consideration that only a hundred of the languages has the status of an official language (CIS 1 Associated Professorof the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU. O.Y. Kornienko. Language factor in global environment 41 countries added 14 official state languages, South African republic – 11, India – 18), which means that more than 2000 languages in Africa are behind the state language boundaries and their future is quite vague. Languages have been dying all the time and will die in the future. The forecast estimates that by the end of the 21-st century about 90% of existing languages will be dead. So, what causes language decay? Scientists state that it depends mainly on mass media, business communication, information networks and Hollywood, not on home linguistic policy [4]. “A dying language” is a language which is spoken by a restricted number of people, and which is not taught to children and which cultural fund is not developing. “A living language” is a language of education and oral and written communication. In our developing world it is closely connected with economic environment which puts forward the necessity for the English language knowledge. Another important factor waiting for clarification is singling out the set of issues that cause the phenomenon, namely, the issues that infer the disappearance of languages. It is important to understand the general line and correlate it with global processes of today. The previous phase of language decay started with great geographic discoveries of the th 16–17 centuries. Therefore, it is reasonable to analyze the realities of the past, which is not such a distant past from the global point of view. The greatest number of languages was lost at the time of colonization, though, the amount increased manifold in the 21st century, the century of globalization. While the outcomes of globalization will be seen in several decades the results of colonization are evident today and waiting for analysis. From economic point of view colonization has usually been used to describe the economic relations of the Third World countries with their colonial metropolis? The process of colonization resulted in the loss of native languages in many countries: those of North and South America, Australia, some states of Africa and numerous others. New economic environment influenced not only the household economy but all spheres of life, including languages. We can see a direct economic influence as native languages were substituted by English, French, Spanish, Portuguese, German. The outcomes depended very much on colonization styles, involving different patterns of interaction with the economic ground at the bases. A well-known American scholar Salikoko S. Mufwene distinguished between trade, settlement and exploitation colony styles [5]. Trade colonies, which developed after Europeans explored new territories, are associated with African slave trade, violence and oppressions. They involved great migration shifts and led to the development of new language varieties called pidgins, which didn’t perish the native language to die if the majority of the population were not deported. The deported population was deprived of everything, while the ones, left in Africa continued their traditional way of life and spoke their native language. The second variety, the settlement colony, presented a greater threat to native languages. Europeans settled to build a new home, or better Europe than the one they had left behind. Regular interactions among differing populations often led to competition and selection among languages in favor of more developed nations, as for example, in favor of Spanish in Central and South America, English in North America and Australia, etc. Exploitation colonies were intended to be exploited for the enrichment of European metropolis. The colonizers served limited terms and didn’t encourage local population to learn European languages. As a result, indigenous languages have survived the most in exploitation colonies (in Africa) in traditional socio-cultural environment. Besides, 42 Global Studies socioeconomic changes gave a competitive edge to the traditional indigenous lingua franca, which are widely spread in urban African centers. Colonizers gave nothing in the way of development and their languages were outlawed from communication. As was implied in the text above, the coexistence of languages always led to some monolingualism, which is the only normal state of the society. The historical overview teaches us the following lessons: 1) the more economically developed is the nation the higher the advantages of its language; 2) the higher the degree of communication in the language the more chances of it becoming lingua franca; 3) the more traditions in the country the less probability of it being suppressed by any other language or alien culture; 4) languages of immigrants die through the process of absorption within the social-economic majority or powerful groups, through integration in the economic infrastructure, while being socially marginalized (examples of the past: Jews in Babylon and Egypt, enslaved Africans, conquered Indians). So, the notion behind the reasoning is the following: 1) nations stream to monolinguism; 2) nations favor the language of economic conquerors. The present day environment is a global world with its peculiarities. The phenomenon is new and old at the same time, which means that we can see de ja vu processes of economic and language colonization. In terms of globalization we can come to the conclusion that the process of “global colonization” follows the following patterns in social-economic sphere: 1) exploitation (migration in global environment); 2) settlement (interwoven cooperation and communication in global terms); 3) trade (adaptation of export/import structures to global trends in today realities). The phenomenon draws everybody’s attention. But in short we can state that “settlement style” global colonization dictates the usage of the English language in professional spheres and international cooperation at the very least. It’s quite clear that economic and technological advantages are at the bases of changing one’s own language into a new language of an alien nation. And economic issues present centripetal tendencies in our society. But, unfortunately, there are no gains without losses. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the factors, others than economic ones, that can prevent a nation to adopt a foreign language as its own. It is possible to frame a hypothesis that the main factors are 1) extra-linguistic ones – the nation’s culture code ( ) and 2) intro-linguistic factors – psychological organization of different languages. Culture code is a set of different means from biological ones to social-and-cultural ones, [6], which grants the reproduction of ideals within the community. Culture codes define the peculiar features that are typical only of this or that civilization. It embodies ethnic groups into a single civilization. Besides, it is represented by a system of communications that provides integrity, security and resistance to outer influence whether progressive or negative. It is formed and later functions only within some single culture with specific behavior patterns (stereotypes). As such, a culture-and-genetic code always includes religious, geographical, linguistic and specific mental components. Any interference into the code can result in dramatic after-effects, even though these changes can be progressive in their essence, which is especially true when applied to an ideological sphere. Hence, the integrity of culture genetic code should be looked upon as a complex of geographical, religious, linguistic, historical, mental factors. The geographical factor defines the typical world outlook, which can be transcendental or anthropocentric. In Western civilization a man is a core of the world who transforms a O.Y. Kornienko. Language factor in global environment 43 manifold space of the immanent world, while an ethnocentric world structure is characteristic of the Oriental civilizations. Muslim civilization is structured according to the confessional principle, which is partly true for western Christian civilizations as well. Other prominent civilizations – Chinese and Indian ones– are not mono-theological, and it is a distinguishing feature of nations with long-standing historical background. It is well known that these civilizations do not have a one-for-everybody religion. ( ) Chinese civilization is mainly a Buddhist-Confucian one and Indian civilization is centered mainly around Hinduism. Confucian religion has become a form of moral philosophy that in the past was put at the basis of Chinese principles of state governance. We can also single out Latin American catholic and Meson (Mesa) African civilizations as well as some others. Western civilization includes Romano-Germanic, Anglo-Saxon and Anglo-American super-ethnic groups. Muslim civilization embraces Arab, Turkic and Malay super-ethnic groups. Chinese civilization gave rise to Chinese, Japanese, Korean and Vietnamese super- ethnic groups. Eastern Orthodox civilization lived through a tragic period of its history at the time of the socialist rule, but, nevertheless, the main Christian values are alive in people. Some scholars (L.N. Gumilyev) defined Russian super-ethnic groups, which can be revived in the form of Eurasian civilization based on today’s split Eastern Orthodox civilization. In its essence the Russian nation is more community-centered than the Western one. The above mentioned leads us to the conclusion that only the Western civilization is ready to adopt the values of Anglo-Saxon culture and the English language, because it is organically oriented towards the transcendental world outlook. Other civilization will have great problems while trying to adjust their life and values to these of American English super-ethnic groups. Religious faith a also a stumbling block in the way of a linguistic unification as it is, first of all, based on different supra-languages: Latin for Catholics, English for protestants, Arabic – for Muslims, Chinese hieroglyphs – for Buddhism, Old Slavonic – for Orthodox religion. It is next to impossible to imagine a Muslim who believes that the whole world is centered around him, who does not respect traditions and old wisdom, who thinks only about the future and feels a constant need for exploration which is despised by other cultural environment. The American culture exhibits other traits, which run in their blood and are consistent with their history and mind-set: focus on “now”, constant need for challenge to authority, openness to change and reinvention, and a strong belief that mistakes warrant second chances. The traits are diametrically different and it looks rather dubious that they can be overcome without a radical change in faith and mental structures. As for the cultural code of the Chinese civilization it is cardinally different from the both mentioned before, for this civilization it is typical to be able to feel the space and time of the present moment, to develop what is given, not to conquer the others, to profit from the weakness of an ally, to respect and never criticize the past, to feel the clue of global history. All these traits complement each other and infer the world development. And at last, let us analyze the role of a language itself in the global environment. Any culture code exists in space and time, which results in religious beliefs and mental codes of a nation. Another compulsory element of the system is a lingua, which reflects and in its turn changes the patterns of the nation’s culture code. Very often religion is supposed to be an essence and a language – a typical form of peoples’ relation of thinking to being, so we can presume that a language is a synopsis of what is happening with national identity. Any language is a reflection of nation’s mentality, which can be seen in grammatical, lexical and phonetic patterns. As grammar is assumed to be a philosophy of a language let us 44 Global Studies compare the way different nations render information. For Russians it is important to give all the details, to put together concomitant circumstances before coming to the main idea. And structurally it often coincides with the end of the sentence. The very structure of the Russian utterance makes it problematic for our speakers to understand the main accents in the English speech, even when everything at the level of words is clear. The same law interferes with passing certificate exams, because in such situations students often continue thinking in Russian language terms, which leads to looking for an answer in the wrong part of the text. The English “take the bull by the horns”, later paying attention to details, thus, the main information is tackled all at once. The pattern is consistent with the mental component of the culture code of the nation, when English try to define for themselves what is happening and then accumulate the information, which can be relevant for their circumstances. Another intro-linguistic feature is difference in grammar accents. The Russians focus on nouns, often neglecting the importance of verbal structures in time and space. “The Subject” is the center of our thinking process, so we streamline our actions in accordance with ideas, ideals, acts, processes, not considering enough how all this is to happen. Therefore, technology, strictly performed succession of actions presents a kind of a problem for Russians. Ideas, unusual projects, innovative approaches are the strong traits. In contrast, the strict patterns that we are to follow, planned work, ability to follow the rule, attention to details are against Russian nature. In English grammar the most important part of speech is a verb (the predicate), and we can understand it just looking at the number of verbal forms that help to develop processes in time and space. When describing an action everything should be taken into account: connection with the present moment, duration, development in space, speaker’s point of view, even habitual or spontaneous action etc. The very structure of the English speech is targeted at pattern development, being ideal for strict know – how mechanisms, clever sophisticated production, clear-cut regulations, well-adjusted technologies. Taking into consideration the above-mentioned information it is possible to conclude that at the moment the very structure of languages makes it impossible to think about a global, universal language, because even a widely spread English language of today has lots of hindrances on its way. Metaphorically speaking, we can state that this new lingua franca has two friends and two enemies. “The friends” are economy and innovative technologies and “the enemies” are culture codes and psycho-ethnic linguistic mechanisms, typical of native languages. Bibliography 1. Alpatov V.M. (2005) History of Linguistic Studies. Moscow: Slavonic culture and languages, p. 14–15 2. Atlas of languages in the World. Origin and Development of Languages Worldwide. Moscow: Lik-Press, 2008. 3. David Crystal English as a Global Language. Cambridge University Press, 2003, p. 11–1. 4. Salikoko S. Mafwene, Colonisation, Globalisation and the Future of Languages in the Twenty-first Century//Journal on Multicultural Societies, Chicago 2002, Vol. 4, Issue 2, p. 26–79. 5. Nettle D. Linguistic fragmentation and the wealth of nations: The Fishman-Pool hypothesis reexamined // Economic Development and Cultural Change. Chicago, 2000. Vol. 48. Issue 2. P. 348. 6. Dergachev V.A. Civilization Geopolitics (Geophilosophy). Textbook. Kiev: VIRA-Press. 2004. Р. 94. 45 T.L. Shestova. Global Historicism and Global History T.L. Shestova1 Global Historicism and Global History Since the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries all the conceptual and methodological transformations in the philosophy of history were interpreted via the concept of historicism and its derivatives. Due to a growing number of attempts to study scientific rationality in the end of the twentieth century, it became necessary to characterize historicism as a scientific claim. Global historicism encompasses fundamentals of historicism in general as well its peculiar features which emerged from the promotion of global perspective within social sciences in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Global historicism is a comprehensive worldview which developed in the midtwentieth century as a response to a radical social change. As a method it laid a groundwork for a variety of new approaches, concepts and schools of thought, which emerged in the late twentieth century (Fig. 1). Figure 1. Fernand Braudel Global historicism studies historical aspects of each object, such as an emergence and stages of development, as well as their global significance. Global significance is evaluated in the framework of a global system of sociocultural norms, which is being established nowadays. On the basis of global historicism there is a plenty of theories revealing social change, which became manifest in the second half of the twentieth century. Global historicism is a tool that helps us critically analyze the phenomenon of social reality in the global world. Global historicism stems from the scientific approaches of the first half of the twentieth century. These include the concept of totality which explained the unity of world history and the main concepts of Russian cosmism which promoted the analysis of a history from a global scale. It was also influenced by the concept of Biosphere-Noosphere transition, the nonlinear concept of history, theoretical concept of 'social time', longwave theory, and other concepts in the fields of ecology, geopolitics, etc. The amalgam of these concepts and approaches constituted global historical principles which evolved into global historicism in the second half of the twentieth century. The radical transformation of world order, which took place in the second half of the twentieth century, led to the formation of the world socialist system and the collapse of the 1 Head of the Publishing Department, Professor of the Faculty of Global processes Lomonosov MSU. 46 Global Studies colonial system. Furthermore, it intensified integration process in the Western world and increased the influence of international institutions and organizations. The necessity to analyze and interpret these processes largely contributed to the formation of global historicism. It was also accelerated by the information revolution and the development of nuclear and space technologies, which dramatically changed our worldview. Discoveries that were made in these fields induced the humanity to examine the future from a world-historical perspective. In that sense there is a greater emphasis on events and processes which might affect or pose a threat to the very existence of humanity. A set of reviewed key principles of the classic historicism laid a basis for global historicism. Instead of linearity, progressivism, Eurocentrism and other concepts, it comprises nonlinear and interdisciplinary approaches, supranational level of analysis, Longue Durée approach to the study of history, social and environmental aspects of world dynamics, etc. (Fig. 2). Figure 2. The Journal of Global History Global historicism as a method introduced a new approach: a 'bird's eye view of world history' (William McNeil, John McNeil)2. Global historicism contributes to the understanding of the contemporary society, it highlights both positive and negative trends and paves the way for the spiritual growth of human beings with an emphasis on humanistic ideals, justice, equity and the love of nature. Moreover, global historicism has a great heuristic potential. The emergence of the new concepts of world history and its importance might be compared to the importance of social class concepts which appeared after the French Revolution. The transformations in the subject matters of social sciences in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries led to the change of glossary. There appeared a whole new body of terms reflecting both historical and global aspects: ‘globalization’, ‘global processes’, ‘global crisis’, etc. We may refer to these terms as to global historical categories. These terms are the top keywords in the methodology of modern social sciences, and they provide a medium to explore the essence of modern social processes worldwide. 2 McNeill J.R., McNeill W.H. The Human Web: A Bird’s-Eye View of World History. N.Y.: W.W. Norton, 2003. T.L. Shestova. Global Historicism and Global History 47 Global processes: the systems approach to the world dynamics The term ‘global processes’ comprises two terms: ‘global’ and ‘processes’. The term ‘global’ has been used in science since 1940-s. Karl T. Jaspers was among the first who used it in its modern sense in his work ‘The Origins and Goal of History’ published in 1948. However, the term has not been used widely until the late sixties and early seventies. It was popularized by a Canadian philosopher and scholar Herbert Marshall McLuhan who coined the expression ‘global village’ and used it in his books including ‘War and Peace in the Global Village’ which was published in 1968. It must be noted that a number of researches supported by the Club of Rome have also contributed largely. The term ‘global’ includes a global dimension of a number of processes and events which were considered local before. Since the late sixties and early seventies the term ‘global’ often co-occurred with the term ‘problems’, and this very set composed ‘global problems’ as a new term. The concept of ‘global problems’ has been widely developed by Russian philosophers. It was elaborated in works by M.I. Budyko, D.M. Gvishiani, E.V. Girusov, V.V. Zagladin, N.N. Inozemtsev, A.I. Kostin, A.N. Kochergin, I.K. Liseev, V.A. Los, N.M. Mamedov, N.N. Moiseev, A.N. Chumakov, A.D. Ursul, I.T. Frolov, G.S. Khozin and others. These authors introduced a classification of global problems and laid a scientific groundwork for future research in this field. Moreover, they attempted to interpret various dimensions of global development via the concept of ‘global problems’. Even though the phenomenon has been largely elaborated, there still remains a large field for research and studies to better capture and understand it. The concept of ‘global problems’ played a prominent role in the philosophy in the 70-s and 80-s. It reflected Marxist and dialectic understanding of history and referred to contradiction which is a cornerstone in Hegel's system of world view. In that sense global problems themselves are regarded as sources of world’s development while the term ‘global problems’ is acknowledged as a tool to advance the descriptive model of the modern world. The concept of ‘global processes’ has initially been developed in the framework of systems analysis since it appeared essential to distinctly analyze the dynamics of global change faced by the humanity in the mid-twentieth century. The term ‘process’ has grown in popularity since the second and the third decades of the 20-th century. An insight into a processual metaphysics has been provided in researches by A. Whitehead, P. Sorokin, N.D. Kondratiev, A.A. Bogdanov and others. The term has also been transmitted among Cybernetics and Control theory in 1950-s to analyze dynamic systems with a main emphasis placed upon ‘control’. Terms ‘global’ and ‘process’ were amalgamated in a world dynamics model commissioned by the Club of Rome in 1970-s. In fact, the ‘World 1’ model introduced by Jay Forrester, a professor at the MIT, was the first attempt to study global processes. It must be noted that the methods of mathematical modeling are now extensively applied to study global processes. There are a number of factors that contributed to the development of these methods: the beginning of the Space Age which established a global world view; awareness of dangers inherent in the technological developments of modern science; growing environmental concerns; revolutionary changes in applied mathematics and an ability to carry out complex calculations of global dynamic characteristics, etc. Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, our society has witnessed a rise of high-performance computing and systems analysis, which rekindled the interest in the methods of mathematical modeling in particular and the study of global processes in general. 48 Global Studies The study of global processes is primarily intended to analyze evolutionary scenarios for humanity and to propose optimization strategies for the development. The core of the concept of ‘global processes’ is ‘control’, which flew from the very awareness of the ability to bring the transformations under control. To conclude, the concept of ‘global processes’ interprets the dynamics of natural and social systems that exert an impact on the global environment. It also deals with the idea of a deep interdependence of all processes taking place on Earth and an ability to conduct qualitative and quantitative researches to optimize the dynamics of global development. Global crisis: concepts of cycles and metaphor of waves. The term ‘crisis’ in modern social sciences is primarily associated with cyclic theories which seek to explain the process of social change by means of dynamic analysis. For economic analysis purposes this approach can be very effective. The economic cycles theory’s contribution to macroeconomics is hard to overestimate. These days terms like ‘cycle’, ‘crisis’, ‘recession’, ‘phase’, ‘transition’, ‘rhythm’, ‘wave’, etc., are widely used in demography studies, political science, sociology, etc.. In the late decades of the twentieth century, scholars working in history and philosophy of history had actively incorporated terminological basis of cyclic concepts into their researches. At the turn of the twenty-first century, the idea of waves and cycles in world history became a trending topic of interdisciplinary studies. It attracted the attention of philosophers, economists, historians, sociologists and mathematicians interested in mathematical modeling (P. Turchin, G.G. Malinetskiy, D.S. Chernavskiy, A.V. Korotaev, S.Y. Malkov and others). Their researches were to a certain extent based on the Long Waves Theory of Nikolai Kondratiev. Kondratiev’s observations were brought to international attention, but remained unpopular in the Soviet Union. In 1922–1923 Kondratiev’s work drew criticism from Leon Trotsky, who noted that the “strict rhythm” is observed in short business cycle only and is influenced by internal factors. Trotsky also claimed that the long-cycle rhythm is associated with the mode of production itself, not with the productive forces. Trotsky highlighted that Kondratiev view did not correlate with the cornerstone of historical materialism and, as a result, repression brought Kondratiev's activity to an end. Kondratiev’s concepts were acknowledged abroad, especially in the United States. The 1980-s and 1990-s witnessed a renewed interest in Kondratiev Waves, and a great number of researches has been conducted. Nikolai Kondratiev’s theory significantly influenced World-system theory developed by F. Braudel, G. Frank, I. Wallerstein (Fig. 3), G. Modelski, T. Hopkins, W. Thompson, G. Arrighi and others. In 1980’s ‘The Third Wave’ written by Alvin Toffler and ‘The Cycles of American History’ by Arthur Schlesinger drew a big response. Toffler’s wave theory developed the understanding of ‘waves’ in history and broadened the meaning of ‘crisis’. He views the concept of waves as a metaphor which helps us organize history. ‘The grand metaphor of this work, as should already be apparent, is that of colliding waves of change’. ‘The wave idea is not only a tool for organizing vast masses of highly diverse information. It also helps us see beneath the raging surface of change’3 – A. Toffler. In his paper ‘Cycles and waves of global history’ V.I. Pantin proposed a new way of categorizing world history which is based on the Long Wave theory. 3 A. Toffler, The Third Wave – Bantam Books, 1984, p. 5. T.L. Shestova. Global Historicism and Global History 49 Figure 3. Immanuel Wallerstein The term ‘global crisis’ has a deeper meaning than most of the terms commonly used by journalists and researchers nowadays, e.g. ‘global economic crisis’, ‘global financial crisis’, global energy crisis’, ‘global ecological crisis’, etc. The former are just evidences of the global transition to a world order, which began from a ‘global crisis’. To conclude, ‘global crisis’ as a term interprets a landmark in the history of humanity with an emphasis on the formation of a new system of values, a system which is going to set up the mode of social relations in the twenty-first century. Global development: concept of progress in the philosophy of history of the twentieth century. In the end of the twentieth century more researchers were deeply skeptical about concept of progress. As a result, in the last third of the twentieth century and the early twenty-first century the concept of development was reviewed. To a large extent the World-systems theory is based on the concept of global development. According to I. Wallerstein, ‘human history is progressive and inevitably so’. Unlike former, classic, concepts of progress, World-systems theory views the human development as a non-linear process (Fig. 4). Figure 4. Patrick O'Brien 50 Global Studies The model of sustainable development is regarded as one of the alternatives for global development. The United Nations and its committees have been working on the concept of global development for the last four decades. In 1971, UNESCO established ‘The Man and the Biosphere Programme’ (MAB), an intergovernmental scientific programme. The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment held in 1972 in Stockholm adopted the motto ‘think global, act local’. In 1987, the UN World Commission on Environment and Development (also known as Brundtland Commission) published the report called ‘Our Common Future’ which preceded the ’Environmental Perspective to the Year 2000 and Beyond’ adopted by the United Nations General Assembly. These were the first steps in establishing the sustainable development concept. In 1992 the United Nations held a historic Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro (also known as the Rio Summit), where 179 nations agreed on the necessity to change the course of human development to a model that would be equitable and sustainable. In 2012 the United Nations will convene the Rio+20 Conference as a 20-year follow-up to the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. The concept of 'sustainable development' is now central to the programmes of many UN member states, including Russia. In 2000, during the Millennium Summit, the eight chapters of Millennium Declaration were drafted, from which the Millennium Development Goals were promoted in the following years. The Millennium Development Goals are: eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, achieving universal primary education, promoting gender equality and empowering women reducing child mortality rates, improving maternal health, combating HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases, ensuring environmental sustainability, and developing a global partnership for development. These are international development goals which constitute a global development strategy supported by national strategies for development. Even though the objectives may seem specific and rather narrow to a certain extent, the Millennium Declaration is an essential document which remains the only development strategy a global community announced (Fig. 5). Figure 5. Maxine Berg To conclude, the concept of global development deals with the direction and irreversibility of social change on the planet, the trend which is evident from a worldhistorical perspective and will have an impact on future. There remains a challenge to establish an ethical system of values and criteria that would be compatible with a sustainable global development. T.L. Shestova. Global Historicism and Global History 51 Globalization as a key scientific concept in the social sciences of the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. Globalization is a commonly used term nowadays. It has become popular in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, though, according to V. L. Inozemtsev, the term was occasionally used earlier by scholars in the 1940-s. The collapse of the socialist bloc and the beginning of a new historical period furthered the popularity of the term ‘globalization’ in the eighties and nineties. The fall of the Berlin Wall urged us to review the methodology used in contemporary history studies, and the ‘globalization’ theory became a new approach to organize a string of events that compose history. ‘Globalization’ refers to the social dimension of global processes, to be more precise, it seeks to describe the spread of any kind of social phenomena across cultures worldwide. Globalization is at the focus of scientific interest nowadays. ‘Globalization’ describes a broadening and deepening interdependence and interaction among people from different parts of the world, as well as the creation of a single economic, political, and cultural space (Fig. 6). Figure 6. Patrick Manning The methods of historicism can be used to analyze globalization, stipulating that a continuous historical process coincides with discreet cultural shifts, and the globalization is concurrent with changes in systems of values. Philosophy of history explores social dimension of globalization through the analysis of its value system. In that sense, global historicism is a powerful tool that can be used for social analysis. It must be noted, that the importance of a debate over globalization models in the philosophy of history of the early twenty-first century is comparable to the debate over Russia’s development models proposed by the Westernizers and Slavophiles in the nineteenth century. It is an erroneous assumption that the evolution of globalization theory implies the adoption of the unified approach to the definition of globalization. Quiet the contrary, a broad range of attitudes to this crucial phenomenon would signify a higher level of democratic liberties and freedom around the world. Whereas the lack of pluralism and the unification of attitudes would herald an era of global totalitarism. Globalization is one of the dominant trends of social development nowadays, it is a complicated process aimed at the creation of global institutions based on a new system of values. The concept of globalization helps us apprehend one of the most pivotal processes taking place nowadays, the process of a broadening interdependence among people around the world and the movement towards global social harmony (Fig. 7). 52 Global Studies Figure 7. Matthias Middell In the last third of the twentieth century and the early twenty-first century numerous theories adopted global historicism approach, e.g., World-systems analysis, Global History, World History, Environmental History, Big History, Macrohistory, Cross-cultural studies, etc. They studied the dynamics of social systems from a global perspective, and their subject matter comprised both historical and global attitudes to the analysis. However, there emerged a Global History theory based on a global historical attitude. As a separate field of studies Global History was introduced to the world in the 1990’s. It was initially acknowledged in Great Britain, then in continental Europe and the United States. The theory of Global History originated in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries and emerged from the works of Fernand Braudel. Its dissemination was induced by the need for modernization of education. Global History, which emerged in the framework of history studies, gradually became an interdisciplinary study focused on the long-term processes. Global historical researches feature the social dynamics analysis in the context of socio-natural interaction (Fig. 8). Figure 8. Global Historism by T.L. Shestova Needless to say, there has to be a philosophical ground for global historical concepts. In that sense, we may recognize global historicism as a philosophy of a global history. Global T.L. Shestova. Global Historicism and Global History 53 historicism provides a conceptual and methodological rationale behind the concepts of global history. It proposes the methodology and ethic guidelines for in-depth global historical researches. Global historicism helps us grasp the distribution of material culture and the dissemination of industrial technologies, migration issues and the changing structure of human populations, population settlement patterns, urbanization and the world’s great trade routes, anthropogenic impact on the environment, etc. (Fig. 9) Figure 9. The “Global History” by I.S. Stavrianos Global historicism is a philosophy of a global history, a modus operandi of contemporary social processes analysis. Global historisism describes the formation of global social institutions which are based on a specific system of values. It reveals whether a certain institution is established to yield to a certain force, and attempts to characterize the society which adopts a certain system of values. Even though the Eurocentric approach to the world history was abandoned, a debate between the so-called Westernizers and their opposers is still taking place. The West orchestrates the formation of world and global history. In fact, the dominant Western discourse crystallized into ideological bases of the historiography and philosophy. Therefore, it is essential for non-western nations in particular and the humanity in general to develop and present some new concepts of world and global history as well as their philosophical ground. The formation of a global system of sociocultural norms is an area of a bitter disagreement and it causes a conflict of interests accompanied by a lot of controversy, therefore, it is a purpose of global historicism to reveal any points of contention that may occur. Global history will remain a field for ideological battles in the upcoming decades, providing a snapshot of the current state of affairs in the global political arena. From now on a global historical attitude will depend crucially on the future of the globalization concept, which maintains its dominance so long as it is being surrounded by the debate about its essence, stages and models. The adoption of a single unified approach to these issues will spell the end of the ‘golden age’ of global history concepts liberty. Academic discussions on the philosophical issues of global history greatly affect the genesis of the global development concepts. 54 Global Studies A.N. Chumakov1 The Phenomenon of Globalization For an adequate perception of modern reality it is important to understand, that before the beginning of the XX century world history has been represented as a number of separately developing civilizations, which had little influence on each other. The contemporary world has radically changed, becoming a single entity as a result of the process of integration of all spheres of social life, which were rapidly developing during the XX century. As a consequence, under the influence of global processes and the global problems that have appeared on the basis of this processes, profound changes in the minds of some peoples and humanity as a whole began to take place. It has become more and more obvious that the global community has entered a new stage of its development that is radically different from the previous ones not only by a larger scale of changes but also by the dynamics and the universal character of these changes. In the 1990-s the whole complex of the changes and the reasons that lie at their root were called globalization. Globalization (lat. Globus – Earth globe) today is seen as the process of universalization, the formation of common for the whole planet links, structures and relations in different spheres of social life. Moreover, globalization is seen as a phenomenon, when it is seen as an objective reality that manifests itself through the closeness of global space, a unified world economy, universal ecological interdependence, global communications system etc. Due to this, it simply cannot be ignored. Global Studies Numerous efforts to understand new tendencies of the world development have resulted in the emerging of global studies – an interdisciplinary sphere of scientific research aimed at understanding the meaning of globalization, finding its causes and development trends, analyzing globalization-engendered global problems and finding ways to sustain the positive and to overcome the negative circumstances of globalization from the viewpoint of men and the biosphere. It is important to highlight that global studies are not specific science or scientific discipline like numerous sciences emerging as a result of differentiation of scientific knowledge or at the intersection of nearby disciplines. Global studies have been born thanks to integrative processes typical for modern science. It is a sphere of research and knowledge where various scientific disciplines and philosophy tightly interconnecting with one another analyze various aspects of globalization and the problems it engenders (each from the viewpoint of its subject matter and methodology). Global studies should also provide solutions for global problems studied both separately from one another and as a holistic system. Global studies have become to form as an independent scientific field and a field of social practice in the end of 1970-s, however the objective ground for this has formed much earlier. 1 Professor of the Faculty of Global Processes, Lomonosov MSU, Chair of Philosophy Department, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, the First Vice-President of the Russian Philosophical Society. A.N. Chumakov. The Phenomenon of Globalization 55 The Origins of Global Processes The first evidence of modern globalization is found at the end of the XV century; by the beginning of the XIX century it is becoming reality. It was the time of the Great Geographic Discoveries which have formed a single geographic, and, to some extent, economic and political space. It was at the time when the humanity has switched from geocentric to heliocentric model of the Solar System, and the humanity has been able to properly explain the alternation of day and night. Science, having been separated from philosophy has become a great impulse for the accumulation of knowledge and the development of technology. It has brought forth the scientific and technical progress and later the industrial revolution, which have radically changed the transforming abilities of humanity and its relation with the environment. The Great Geographic Discoveries of the XV–XVI have centuries significantly changed the course of history and “led to the unprecedented expansion of the European politics. From this point the struggle for the colonies has become one more reason for the antagonism between the European states.” It was the beginning of the new international economic and political relations, the mutual influence of different cultures and the expansion of Western European naval powers in the different parts of the newly discovered world. Fundamental Globalization The next stage of globalization was connected with the formation of planet-wide structures, ties, and relations. As a result, the world in almost all the spheres of social life has become holistic. The first evidence of this kind of globalization, which can be named fundamental, can be found in the second half of the XIX century; by the middle of the XX century it has become reality. At the same time the economic division of the world has almost ended becoming the reason for a set of essentially new serious problems which were triggered by the growing interconnection of different countries and peoples. These processes penetrated not only the economic, political and social life, but also culture, science and philosophy. Various international organizations, forums, conventions, congresses began to appear promoted by the development of means of mass communication. By the beginning of the XX century the world has become an arena of struggle for the spheres of influence between the strongest states and big monopolies, which in the end has led to the World War I. Numerous peoples of the world, directly or indirectly, have been involved in the military conflict. The economic and political interdependence that has formed by that time on the global scale has not left any chance for any significantly big country not to participate in the war or at least suffer from its consequences. The meaning was that from this point history has seized to be only European or Russian, or Chinese history; it has become the history of humanity as a whole, the truly world history. The end of the WWI in 1918 has formed a new balance of powers on the world scene, the consequences of which were even tighter relations and contradictions between the states, making the world a genuinely global community. As a result, in the period between WWI and WWII the processes of globalization have developed even more; the main factors were the following: 1) The intensification of the anthropogenic influence on the biosphere and the transformation of man into a real “geologic force”. 56 Global Studies 2) The beginning of rapid development of mass culture (mainly cinema, music, literature, the production of mass goods). 3) The invention of television (the main conductor of mass culture and the symbol of globalization). 4) Non-stop intercontinental flights for the first time ever have “shrunk” time and space to the parameters of a person’s everyday life. However, unsolved contradictions and the intensification of universal interdependence led to the beginning of the World War II that became the most widespread war in history. This time three fourth of the world population were involved in the conflict, and the casualties have greatly surpassed the WWI. From the viewpoint of globalization of the world processes both wars were essentially different stages of a single global war. The crucial difference was only in the quantitative parameters. Both of them were aimed at solving the same problems – the redivision of an already divided holistic world. The means used in the wars were almost the same – the level and scale of the technologies in the World War II was considerably higher. Moreover, the ideological influence was significantly reinforced by the wide use of various means of communication that either did not exist in the previous war (telephone, radio) or were not sufficiently developed (aviation, marine, railway, and automobile transport). WWII, same as the WWI had a variety of fundamental consequences that have become a distinguishing characteristic of the future world order. The main one was that the war has stimulated the research and the creation of essentially new kind of weapons (atomic and missile), which have opened for humanity unlimited possibilities for the total destruction and extermination of everything living. These very achievements of scientific-technical progress have determined the specifics and the character of the arms race during the Cold War and have shown how fragile and closed our planet is. Another consequence of the WWII and the result of the growing interdependence in the global world was the unprecedented growth of international organizations, the main one of which was The United Nations. European integration has also started with the end of the WWII. The starting point can be named 1946 when the British Prime Minister Winston Churchill has called for the creation of the United States of Europe. One more significant act and the first experience of global cooperation in the sphere of justice and regulation of international relations was the Nuremberg Trials on the prominent war criminals and main Nazi organizations. This process was conducted by the first in history international military tribunal that was created on August 8th 1945 by the winners – USSR, USA, Great Britain and France. It has become an important step in forming of the modern international justice system. In this exact period the ideas of liberalism and democracy are massively spread and a series of significant research and theoretical works on the rethinking of the basis of social being, moral principles of society and the basic principles of social development were written (Fig. 1). Multiaspect Globalization From the 1970-s globalization enters a new stage of development and becomes multiaspect. Its main characteristic is the realization by a wider mass of people of the global threats and the processes of globalization. Moreover it is the forming of a global community, the corresponding values and lifestyle. This time is also characterized by the informational revolution and the development of another form of social conscience (like religion, myth, philosophy, science and ecology) – the global conscience. A.N. Chumakov. The Phenomenon of Globalization 57 Figure 1. The background and main epochs of the Global processes (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) Multiaspect globalization has substantially transformed the global market, gradually making the world economy more significant than national economies. The main characteristics of the global economy are: 1) the resonance effect when the economic upturns and downturns are transferred from one country to the other countries or regions that are closely connected with it; 2) the formation of a world market of different goods and services; 3) the formation of the world prices on the goods and services that determine the policy of the national producers. 58 Global Studies Along with the internalization of the economy and the unification of the role of money the distinguishing characteristic of the multiaspect globalization, its natural outcome, became the emerging of a mass society and a mass culture. After the popularization of Internet in 1991 the world has enclosed in the terms of information. Computer revolution and the development of Internet have created new information medium without any boundaries. Multiaspect globalization has also transformed politics. Thus, before 1990-s the main characteristic of international relations was the bipolar system, notable for the antagonism of two military and political alliances, which were in the state of the Cold War. After the collapse of the socialist system the situation has radically changed. In the recent years the along with activity of national states, the influence of new international actors has increased. These are so called nontraditional actors of international relations that with their number and financial power and political influence can be compared to or even be stronger than certain countries. The most important of these actors of international relations are intergovernmental organizations, multinational corporations and international nongovernmental organizations. The most significant are the “green” environmental groups, “alternative”, anti-globalists etc. Having crossed the boundary of a new millennium the world community has entered in a substantially new phase of historic development that can be characterized by the transition from fragmentation and dissociation of the world political, economic, social and cultural ties to their unity and globality (Fig. 2). Global Problems as a Consequence of Globalization The processes of globalization brought new worries and essentially new (global) problems, which stemmed from the internalization of social life. As can be seen from above, global problems became a result of the centuries-long quantitative and qualitative transformations both in social development and in the ‘society-nature’ system. It has also been established that the appearance and sharp aggravation of global problems in the secondhalf of the 20th century is not a result of some miscalculation, somebody's fatal error or a purposely chosen strategy of socioeconomic development. Neither are these the whims of history or a consequence of nature's anomalies. The reasons for their appearance are rooted in the history of formation of modern civilization which provoked an extensive crisis of the industrial society and technocratic-oriented culture in general. This crisis covered the whole complex of people's interaction with each other, fundamentally changed the relations between the person and society, society and nature, and touched directly the vital interests of the whole world community. It equally spread to the most remote parts of the planet, to the developing and developed nations. It is in the developed nations where the negative impacts of human activity on the environment have become evident earlier. Moreover, the problems here were much more acute due to the rapid and spontaneous development of the economy. The result of this kind of development was primarily the degradation of the environment that has uncovered a tendency of degradation of man himself. It is due to the inability of people’s way of thinking, behavior and perceptions to adequately transform according to the changes around him. The reason for such an increased rate of development of social-economic processes was the purposeful and transforming activity of a man, which was reinforced by the new discoveries in science and technology. A.N. Chumakov. The Phenomenon of Globalization 59 Figure 2. The poly-aspect globalization (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) Figure 3. The main epochs of scientific-technical progress (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) 60 Global Studies Increasing Rate of Social Development The humanity has spent almost 3 million years to move from verbal to written communication, about 5 thousand years to move from writing to typing, 500 years – to such audiovisual means of communication as telephone, radio, television, sound recording etc., and less than 50 years - to modern computers. It took only 10–15 years, which is extremely fast by historical measures, to acquire unlimited possibilities of communication with the advent of Internet and mobile phones. The time for implementing new inventions into practice has shortened dramatically – what before was years, now is month and weeks. All of this gives us the right to call our planet “a common home”, “an island in the Universe”, “a boat in a roaring ocean”, “a world village” etc.; and the problems which have become common for all the people – global problems (Fig. 3). Realizing Global Trends Some trends of the changes in the world have become the focus of attention of scientists and philosophers earlier than those changes became obvious. For example, an English historian A. Toynbee (1889–1975) who viewed historic development as a consequent change of civilizations, long before the computer revolution has come to a conclusion that “in the XX century a common history has begun”. It was highlighted that the dramatic changes were not only seen in the basis of the social order, but also in the main trends of global social processes. One of the greatest representatives of German philosophy K. Jaspers (1883–1969) has been even more specific. In his work The Origin and Goal of History he wrote in particular: ‘Our historically new situation, for the first time having the decisive importance, represents the real unity of people on the Earth. Due to the technical facilities of modern means of communication our planet has become a single whole entirely available for a human, it became «smaller» than the Roman Empire used to be in the old days”. The World War II has put an end to the fragmentation of the world community. Just after the end of the WWII K. Jaspers wrote: “From this very moment starts the world history as history of a single whole. From this point of view the whole previous history seems a range of scattered independent from each other attempts, a great number of different sources of human abilities. Now the world on the whole became the problem and the task. Thus a fundamental transformation of history takes place. Nowadays the conclusive is the following: there is nothing beyond the sphere of happening events. The world has enclosed. The globe has become indivisible. New dangers and opportunities are revealed. All essential problems have become world problems, the situation – has become the situation of the whole humanity”. The modern age has added such new philosophic questions as the common destiny of human kind and the problem of preserving life on Earth to eternal problems of being and consciousness or the meaning of life. Under the influence of the impressive results in the fields of science and technology in the XX century the first technocratic social theories appear. One of the most famous authors of such a theory is an American economist and sociologist T. Veblen. He was among the first who gave a philosophical explanation of the leading role of industrial production and technical advances in the development of society. He thought that the political power should be in the hands of engineers and technicians because only they can develop the production is in the interest of society (this was the essence of the technocratic theory of Veblen). Thus they need the political power to achieve this goal. A.N. Chumakov. The Phenomenon of Globalization 61 This time was also notable for the advent of serious worries about the dangers of the new trends. French philosopher E. Le Roy and theologist Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, which were the first ones to use the term “noosphere”, introduced new global concepts. But the leading role in the apprehension of modern problems of the mutual relation of humanity and nature belongs to V. Vernadsky, who was the first one to point out the human being as a powerful geologic force and developed his original concept of noosphere. It is the stage of the development of biosphere, when the humanity will take responsibility for harmonizing social and natural processes. Justifying the uniqueness of human being as a part of biosphere Vernadsky called for the renunciation of egoistic goals for the consolidation of humanity. The scientist wrote: “The outcome of the world, the gates of the future, theentry into the superhuman – these are not thrown open to a few of the privileged nor to one chosenpeople to the exclusion of all others. They will open only to an advance of all together, in a direction inwhich all together can join and find completion in a spiritual renovation of the earth”. Therefore we can say that already in the first half of the XX century among the philosophers and scientists understood not only that a new era is coming – the era of global phenomena, but also that in these new conditions only by joint effort people can withstand the new challenges of nature and society (Fig. 4). Figure 4. The main stages of understanding of Globalization (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) 62 Global Studies “Technooptimism” By the beginning of 1960-s the concepts of noosphere were overshadowed by a new wave of technocratic views and almost for 20 years have lost their influence on the mass consciousness. The reason for this was the industrial boom in almost all the developed countries in the post-war period. In 1950–1960-s the prospects of social progress seemed favorable both for the Western and the Eastern countries. The concept of technooptimism was beginning to form in social consciousness. It created an illusion that all of the earth and even space problems can be solved by the means of science and technology. These viewpoints have resulted in the theories which declared “the consumer society” the goal of social development. In the same period the concepts of “industrial”, “postindustrial”, “technetronic”, and “informational” etc. society were actively being developed. In 1957 a famous economist and sociologist J. Galbraith has published a book The Affluent Society, the main ideas of which he developed in another work called The New Industrial State. He gave a positive evaluation of the scientific achievements of humanity and showed the deep transformation of economic and social structure which were triggered by these achievements. Another American philosopher and sociologist Daniel Bell gave an outlook of the future world structure. Even before the emerging of Internet he said: “I am sure that information and theoretical knowledge are strategic resources of the post-industrial society. Moreover, in this new role they represent the turning points of history”. One of the first of such turning points is the essential transformation of the very nature of science – from “universal knowledge” to the main driving force of contemporary society. The second turning point was determined by the advent of new technologies, which in contrast to the technologies of the time of the industrial revolution were mobile and easily converted. Daniel Bell defending technooptimism wrote: “Modern technologies open many different alternative ways for the achievement of unique and, at the same time various results. In addition, the production of goods is increasing. These are the prospects; the only question is how to make them real”. Technopessimism While some of the scientists paid some attention to the negative consequences of scientific and technical revolution, for example the pollution of the environment, on the whole there was no serious concern about this issue up until 1980-s. The possible reason is that the results of the almighty scientific and technical progress were too great to pay attention to the negative effects. At the same times, from the end of 1960-s new problems posing threat to different countries and continents begin to emerge. Some of them are the uncontrolled increase of the world population, the unbalance in economic development of different countries, finite fossil fuels, food supplies, etc. In a short time they became the main topic for discussion of science and philosophy. The first attempts to make a philosophic analysis of these problems have revealed the views opposite to technooptimism, which were later called “technopessimism”. If the attention is focused on the negative consequences of human activity and environmental problems, it is called “ecopessimism”. Many famous scientists like H. Marcuse, T. Roszak and P. Goodman spoke against the scientific and technical progress. They accused their predecessors of soulless scientism and A.N. Chumakov. The Phenomenon of Globalization 63 the aspiration by the means of science and technology to enslave the humanity. A new wave of protests against not only scientific and technical progress, but also against social progress was forming. Some of the ideas justified the society of “anti-consumerism” and were aimed at persuading the “regular people” reduce consumption. In attempts to find the cause of global problems the main fell on “modern technology”. Not only the scientific achievements, but the very idea of progress has been placed in doubt. Such calls as Jean-Jacques Rousseau’s “back to nature” could be heard. Moreover, it was suggested to “freeze” and “stop” the economic development. The Club of Rome The mentioned above views on the problem of technology and progress was greatly influenced by the activity of The Club of Rome. It is an authoritative international organization of philosophers, scientists, government officials and business leaders from around the globe. The Club of Rome was founded in 1968 in Rome, and its main goal became the publishing of reports on the most crucial universal problems of humanity. The first report “Limits to Growth” published in 1972 “came as a bombshell” – it showed that the humanity is “playing with matches sitting on a gunpowder barrel”. In the beginning of his report the founder and the president of the Club of Rome A. Peccei wrote: “Now, there is no sane person who believes that the good old Earth will be able to maintain rates of growth to fulfill the desires of humanity. Everybody understands that there are limits, but what are they - we still have to find out”. The authors of the mentioned above report have started the research on this topic. The main conclusions were that the limited size of the Earth means that the human expansion has its limits. Therefore economic growth cannot be eternal and the real limits of the social development are determined mostly by ecologic, biologic and even cultural factors. Having built a computer model of the main trends of the world development, they have come to a conclusion that if these trends will not be changed the humanity could lose control over these processes, which would lead to an inevitable catastrophe. Their conclusion was the necessity to freeze the production and maintain its growth on the “zero level”. Moreover the population growth has to be stabilized with the appropriate social policies. Russian philosophers have made a significant contribution in the understanding of global processes and the problems they bring. Their views are mainly “moderate” which mostly coincides with “moderate technopessimism”. Some of the philosophers who stood at the origins of Russian global studies are I. Frolov, E. Arab-Ogly, E. Girusov, G. Gudozhnik, V. Los, N. Mamedov, V. Mantatov, A. Ursul, G. Khozin etc. The Role of Philosophy in Global Studies The Connection of Science and Philosophy Science has always come to the aid of humanity in solving difficult problems. A lot of issues, that seemed insurmountable in the past, have been resolved with the help of science. Because of this, the first mentioning of the threat of global problems has drawn the attention of people to science and made the scientist think about the ways to solve them. This situation was not only unusual, but entirely new. Any single problem could be studied by a specific science or a few of them as a unit. On the other hand, global problems 64 Global Studies represent a complex system which includes the interconnection of human beings, society and nature, and therefore, cannot be studied by a single science. For this reason a philosophical view on the processes and the situation as a whole (including the final results) is needed (Fig. 5). The Features of Philosophic Approach Modern global problems form a very complex system dealing with people, society, and nature in their numerous interrelations, and consequently frameworks of concrete sciences are too narrow to see such objects of research as a whole, as a uniform system, in the context of modern global tendencies and the contradictions generated by them. Without the philosophic view on the problems this approach cannot be effective even for science as a whole. Philosophy not only provides the cultural, methodological and moral basis for the corresponding decisions of some specific sciences, but also stimulates their interaction and interdisciplinary unification. Within the framework of global studies in philosophy a number of basic problems is being solved: – Forming the outlook, a certain view of the world and a person's place in it, global studies in philosophy set corresponding estimation tasks, which in many respects determine the direction of human activity; thus their worldview and estimating functions are implemented; – The methodological function of philosophy and generalizing theories that it generates, turn out to be extremely necessary to modern science as they promote integration of scientific knowledge; – Philosophy helps to explain social phenomena and processes in their historical context; it formulates the most general lawsof the development of society and nature and consequently in the course of studying of global processes it aims at understanding them as a natural phenomenon integrally connected to social progress. The phenomenon of globalization and its con sequences are thus considered not as an accident or demonstration of blind fate dooming humankind to destruction in advance, but as a result of an objective process of the conflicting development of the history of humankind; Figure 5. The relation between Philosophy and Science (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) A.N. Chumakov. The Phenomenon of Globalization 65 – From the point of view of philosophy it is possible to see the general tendency and dynamics of the development of world processes, and also the correlation and interaction of the problems generated by them; – Philosophy also carries out a culturological function as it enables us to develop a culture of theoretical thinking. Another aspect of this function is that studying the history of philosophy of various nations allows us to get acquainted with their customs, traditions, and culture, and none of the problems that this or that nation faces can be solved without this knowledge; – The result of the whole vision of the natural-historical process and a complex approach to its interpretation is the opportunity for a more precise orientation in promptly increasing the flow of scientific information on global problems; – Philosophy deals with issues of human life, death, and immortality, and that becomes of special value and urgency when confronting the threats posed by global problems. Finally, the important methodological function of philosophy is the development of such categories as global studies, global problems, nature, society, civilization, social progress, scientific and technical revolution, globalization, globalism, etc., which are directly connected to the actual modern problems of humankind and are very important for comprehending the objective tendencies of the world development. Main Currents of Global Studies Same as the other fields of scientific knowledge about social processes, global studies was affected by the social and economic structure, politics and ideology. Based on this factor we can outline different currents of global studies. From the end of the 1960-s till 1990-s the formation of global studies was under the influence of the confrontation between two ideologically- hostile social and economic systems. It determined the two main currents of global studies – “western” and “soviet”. In the last decade ideological confrontation has transformed into economic, cultural, religious and national contradictions, which became the basis for the division of the world in several macro regions, maybe even international actors. Cultural and civilizational differences became the main reason for the contradictions in the modern world. Based on this, different currents of global studies based on the approaches to the global processes have emerged. From a variety of such approaches the most famous ones were highlighted. In the non-Russian global studies two directions have formed initially: the ‘technocratic’ one within which the positive influence of science and technique on social life was obviously exaggerated, and the ‘technopessimistic’ one making the technological progress, international capital and transnational corporations responsible for the negative consequences of globalization. Later their positions became closer and at the same time were differently corrected under the influence of different estimation of the prospects for the world market development; so, the indicated division is quite relative now. The representatives of the first ones have outlined the possibilities that science provides in resolving global problems. They pay most careful attention to the scientific and technical progress, and show its significance for the society (T. Veblen, G. Khan, W. Brown, D. Bell, A. Toffler, A. Touraine, A. Schaff, G. Friedriechs, A. Viener, H. Scott, D. Nesbit, E. Weizsäcker, L. Lovins etc.). Technopessimists, on the other hand, blame scientific and technical progress, international capital and multinational corporations for the negative consequences of globalization and global problems (H. Marcuse, T. Roszak and P. Goodman, D. Meadows, K. Boulding, M. Roberts, K. Davis, A. Ehrlich, U. Beck etc.). 66 Global Studies A sizeable number of different currents have arisen in Russia, which have been favourably received in scientific and specialist literature. The most important of which are: 1) The philosophical-methodological current which studies the philosophical bases, essence and genesis of global processes and analyses the most important socio-political and economic transformations necessary for the effective solution of the problems resulting from them. Here of particular note is the work of V. Vernadskii, I. Frolov, N. Moiseev, D. Gvishiani, V. Zagladin, G. Khozin and others. 2) The socio-natural current encompasses a wide range of problems of which the greatest concern and worry is caused by ecology, the safeguarding of raw materials for mankind, energy, water and land resources. In this field noted influence is exerted by the works of authors such as V. Vinogradov, N. Reimers, I. Gerasimov, V. Anuchin, A. Ursul, N. Kasimov and others. 3) The culturological current, where the centre of attention are problems arising as a result of the influence of globalization processes on various spheres of culture, the mass media, value criteria, mass consciousness etc. (S. Kapitza, N. Kasimov, G. Gudozhnik, E. Markaryan, V. Mezhuev, A. Katsura etc.) In recent years Russian globalization studies have noted new tendencies that show that the attention of academics, researchers andeven politicians lumps together separate global problems in the processes of globalization, in the growth of mutually dependent varied spheres of social life and all possible international structures. The reason for this is not fully satisfying experience of realizing and overcoming specific global problems and the aim to find the fundamental reasons for their emerging and becoming more severe. This trend is typical for specific scientific disciplines and philosophy in different countries and on different continents. For example, although at the last three World Philosophy Congresses in Brighton (1988), Moscow (1993), Boston (1998), Istanbul (2003) and Seoul (2008) it was not directly talked about globalization, nevertheless, their Programs always included panels and roundtable discussions on world problems. Now, at the 21-st Congress in Istanbul, this topic not surprisingly becomes central. In the recent years in Russia scientific research on the topic also took place. It is important to highlight the productive work of the scientific club Global World. Moreover, a significant contribution was made by a large group of scientists and specialists in creation of an international, interdisciplinary encyclopedic dictionary and encyclopedia “Globalistics”; the creation of Faculty of Global Studies in Lomonosov Moscow State University, on the base of which international congresses and conferences are being held. In a broader sense today the term ‘global studies’ determines the whole totality of scientific, philosophical, culturological and applied investigations of different aspects of globalization and global problems including the received results of such investigations and also practical activity on their realization in economic, social and political spheres both at the level of separate states and in the international scale. Global Studies within the Framework of Modern Scientific Knowledge Global studies are not a specific science or scientific discipline because they have been born thanks to integrative processes typical for modern science. Therefore the question of the subject, matter, method, goal and conceptual apparatus lie in a different plane as compared to this or that concrete field of science. In particular, its subject cannot be determined unambiguously though in a simplifying way, one can define its subject as the world integrity, humanity as a whole or the whole biosphere with its basic element – the human being. The A.N. Chumakov. The Phenomenon of Globalization 67 same is referred to the conceptual apparatus of global studies which (at the philosophicalmethodological level) will be indivisible to a certain extent only, in other respects it becomes ‘diffused’ in separate sciences. Speaking about methods or goals of the global studies, attention should be paid to the fact that besides defining some basic approaches, one should enumerate not only separate sciences and their contribution to the research of the appropriate problems but also reveal the way philosophy, culture studies, politics and ideology are involved in the global studies what makes the solution of such a task admittedly almost unachievable. One more significant difference of the global studies from concrete scientific disciplines consists in the fact that the comprehension of global tendencies and a principal overcoming of the problems caused by them requires not only theoretical investigations but corresponding effective practical activities. The global studies thereby, impartially fulfills the integrative role in the sphere of science and practice making many scientists, politicians and public people consider the contemporary world in a new way and realize their involvement into the common fate of the humanity. It makes think that globalization and problems it causes do leave no other choice to the humanity than through overcoming the fragmentationand difficulties to come to its unity saving the originality of cultures, centuryold traditions and basic values of separate nations and peoples whenever possible. But such a unity and co-ordination of actions can be provided only by the appropriate understanding of processes and events happening in the modern world whose knowledge is developed and formed in global studies where the short-term aims and long-run prospects are considered in close interconnection. NEW BRANCHES OF GLOBALISTICS I.V. Ilyin1, R.R. Gabdullin2, A.V. Ivanov3 Paleoglobalistics Paleoglobalistics is one of the subfields of global studies, more precisely, temporal aspect of evolutionary globalistics. Paleoglobalistics examines co-evolutional patterns of past global processes and systems. Neoglobalistics studies co-evolutional patterns of present global processes and systems, and future-globalistics explores co-evolutional patterns of future global processes and systems. Historic globalistics is interpreted by majority of researches as history of globalization as a global process. The question is what can be considered as the commencement of globalization. Currently there is no consensus on this matter – it can be the time of emergence of the first civilisations or empires, the Age of Discovery or XX century. For instance, Roman Empireincorporated a number of nations with common political control, monetary and legal system within its borders. However, there were states and civilizations in Asia and America at the same time and much earlier. At that time, there were several selfsufficient centers of globalization – this is the stage of protoglobalization. The origins of globalization as a process revealed much earlier. For example, it is worldwide human settlement. The latter circumstance indicates another one fundamental difference of paleoglobalistics from historic globalistics (Fig. 1). Historic approach is primarily the chronology of events, usually without determination of their causes and interrelationships. The emphasis is on factual basis that is necessary for the most accurate dating of the phenomenon manifestation or a phase of the process. Universal history begins its chronicle from the time of the Big Bang, and global history begins from the time of formation of the Earth. These subfields of history study chronology of global events, but at the same time global history is a part of universal history, the latest time period of universal history. As a result, we notice one again that paleoglobalistics studies global natural processes of the past (for instance, the movement of tectonic plates, appearance and disappearance of supercontinents, formation of the relief (Fig. 2), the evolution of life (Fig. 3, 4)). 1 Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Professor. Vice-Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Associated Professor. 3 Director of Mass-Media Center of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Head of the Department of UNESCO Branch in SSTU, Dean of the Faculty of Ecology and Service Gagarin SSTU, Professor. 2 I.V. Ilyin, R.R. Gabdullin, A.V. Ivanov. Paleoglobalistics Figure 1a. The relation between Paleoglobalistics, Universal History & Global History 69 70 New Branches of Globalistics Figure 1b. Historical Globalistics I.V. Ilyin, R.R. Gabdullin, A.V. Ivanov. Paleoglobalistics Figure 2. Examples of Global Natural Processes 71 72 New Branches of Globalistics Figure 3. Examples of Global Natural Processes 73 I.V. Ilyin, R.R. Gabdullin, A.V. Ivanov. Paleoglobalistics Figure 4. Evolution – an example of Global Natural Process I.V. Ilyn1, A.D. Ursul2 Nooglobalism and Nooglobalistics As already demonstrated before, Michael Lomonosov was one of the originators of global thinking and global outlook on life. Later on Vladimir Vernadsky developed a planetary approach to scientific knowledge, giving special role in the creation of the future sphere of thought (noosphere) to science. Its modern development has confirmed his insigh. But the most important part is that the scientist was one of the originators of both “natural” and socionatural approaches to global studies, which we will dwell upon in this section (Fig. 1). In the field of global studies two different, but linked processes are being marked out: the first appears as a process of globalization of knowledge and the second represents a process of formation of a specific type of scientific knowledge – global knowledge (Fig. 2). These scientific tendencies are closely connected with development of the sphere of thought which is mentioned in the works of such French scientists as Eduard Leroix and Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (Fig. 3). From the very beginning the study of noosphere was 1 2 Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Professor. Academician, Professor of Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU. 74 New Branches of Globalistics global, id est was forming as a neoglobalist outlook on life in which globalism and noosphere were combined into one united system (Fig. 4). Figure 1. V.I. Vernadsky Globalization of knowledge Global studies Global knowledge Figure 2. Tendencies and results of global studies Figure 3. Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1881–1955) I.V. Ilyn, A.D. Ursul. Nooglobalism and Nooglobalistics Globalism Nooglob alism 75 Idea of Noosphere Figure 4. Nooglobalism The insight of Vladimir Vernadsky on the “planetary” nature of scientific thought and of global nature of human activity (including geological) has already formed into current global processes and will also be reflected in the forthcoming social and socionatural evolutionary processes. When talking about origins of global studies (in Russia it usually concerns globalistics), rarely do we remember that global ideas in many fields belong to Vladimir Vernadsky. However, global and noospheric traits are intertwined in his scientific work, thus creating united global-noospheric outlook on life, or neoglobalism. Undoubtedly, other noosphere scientists, such as Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, should be mentioned here as well. In his evolutionary studies special attention is paid to the process of cephalization at the head of which comes the human. Therefore, noosherogenesis (as a process of development of the sphere of human thought) appears as one of the stages of global evolution of the universe that will firstly take place on Earth as a socionatural process and then will proceed even beyond it. Most scientific sources argue that the genesis of globalistics began in the second half of the XX century, which allows us to connect globalistics with the aforementioned global processes, including the development of noosphere. Noosphere (from Greek νόο – «mind» and σφα ρα – «sphere») is a hypothetical future, along with the global process, of society and its interaction with nature where the most important role will be played by collective panhuman mind that will give the socionatural evolution a progressive direction. According to an official document – “Strategy for Transition of Russian Federation to Sustainable Development” that dates back to 1996, noosphere is described as a society in which moral values, knowledge and human life consistent with environment will serve as the main criteria for national and personal wealth. The increase of the role of a human mind was not a novelty of the end of the 1930-s when the notion “noosphere” became quite common – at least in the USSR and Russia. The idea of a “kingdom of mind” was developed during the Age of Enlightment – long before the understanding of global processes came. Different scientists proposed various concepts of noosphere, but they all had a common ground: faith in the power of mind (and not only human) and its main role as a mechanism of the next “sapience” evolution. Even though K.E. Tsiolkovsky never used the term “noosphere”, he still emphasized the role of the mind in the Universe considering it to become not only geological factor, as V.I. Vernadsky believed, but also a key factor for the cosmic evolution. 76 New Branches of Globalistics Some scientists believe that the idea of transformation of the mind into a key factor of human activity appeared not in the first half of the XX century, but as long ago as the ancient times. In the concept of noosphere the priority is given to the notion of mind as the top form of cognitive activity. One should have a broader look at the concept of noosphere, since right now its formation is already perceived through sustainable development (SD). We strongly believe that the future of globalistics will be closely connected to a global process of noospherogenesis and will be studied by noosphericglobalistics, or neoglobalistics (Fig. 5). Nooglobalism Globalisticа Nooglobalistics Figure 5. The pattern of nooglobalism ideas In fact, the appearance of the idea of noosphere was predetermined: the significance of the sphere of thought is inherent to the social stage of substance development with its informational and cultural nature, as opposed to the biological stage. This unique nature of socio-informational evolution has called upon broadening of human activity first on our planet and later – in space. The most vivid trait of noospherogenesis is formation of a so-called noospheric intelligence. The future noospheric intelligence will need to obtain its “planetary sapience”, since the world community on the whole and every country will need to act united in their transition to the SD strategy. Transition to SD determines transition to noosphere, as it has already been stated in the section on futuroglobalistics. It seems of great importance to support the idea of connection between SD and noosphere formation, as since this connection was formed, a new stage of development of the noosphere concept began. As a matter of fact, the idea of noospherogenesis differs greatly from Teilhard de Chardin’s idea of noogenesis, as the second is closely connected with its environment. It reminds of the concept of biosphere: biota is included into a convergence sphere together with physical substance. This idea seems much more adequate from a global-evolutionary point of view, as development of a system cannot be viewed separately from its environment that appears as a driving force. If global environment is taken into consideration, we talk about global noospherology or noosphericglobalistics (nooglobalistics). A broader – cosmic – prospective was presented by K.E. Tsiolkovsky, who considered human thought to be a factor for evolution of space, as it is now confirmed by modern science. Social stage of evolution is going beyond biosphere and will become a cosmic process, thus insuring the mind’s role as a “drive” for the global evolution, as it is already being stated in cosmoglobalistics. However, human mind has already began playing this role on Earth. As we came to realization of global problems and their menace to civilization, it has become clear that spontaneous formation of noosphere is impossible. Instead, it should occur as a result of socio-technological engineering by human mind and science in its noospheric orientation. Social stage of evolution will concentrate on finding and exploring the planets that resemble Earth, where its future development will take place. This concept falls into the framework of neoglobalism outlook (refer to the “Cosmoglogalistics” section). 77 I.V. Ilyn, A.D. Ursul. Nooglobalism and Nooglobalistics According to V. Vernadsky, science and alike activity forms will dominate on the way to noosphere. Evidently, formation of noosphere is a global process, as was mentioned by V. Vernadsky, when biosphere will transform into noosphere. Biosphere represents the base for life on the planet and for development of mind, but only provided that the anthropogenic pressure will be substantially lowered by certain mechanisms (Fig. 6) Preserved biosphere Transforming sociosphere Noosphere Figure 6. Noospherogenesis by means of sustainable development Ratio between collective mind and social reality appears to be the key question of noosphere formation – especially on the global scale. As has already been mentioned before, the study of formation of noosphere through SD emphasizes the problem of biosphere preservation – as opposed to their predecessors. Modifying will be necessary for the continuation of the social evolution, but will most likely take place on other planets of both the Earth group and extrasolar planets. The key trait of the new, non-classic, stage of the study of noosphere is its connection to the concept of SD, that is currently undergoing very intensive formulation. Even though for now the influence is quite small, but in the future this connection will have a great impact on the SD scientific search on the world level, as in Russia the situation is quite different. So far even in Russia the scientific potential of the noosphere study has not been unlocked in the field of SD. It is not biosphere that should be transformed into noosphere – it is sociosphere. Biosphere, on the other hand, should be preserved for as long as possible to make existence of humanity possible in the future. The argument of V. Vernadsky about inseparability of a human from biosphere is not the only point. Naturally, it is so, but this inseparability is a guarantee for the future evolution of both biosphere and humanity, that in a long term can continue its existence beyond Earth. Therefore, biosphere is essential for both humanity and other life forms on our planet. If this thesis is considered a part of noosphere study, than it appears logical to build the connection between noosphere and global concept of SD, and this understanding represents the first stage of the transition from sociosphere to noosphere. Global governance will be linked to the formation of a new socionatural environment as well, as it acquires noospheric forms: id est, it will be connected with evolutionary creativity, socio-technological engineering, creation of anything demanded by the global noosphere model and in compliance with human capacity of the XXI century. Global nature of sphere of thought formation confirms the heuristic importance of the neoglobalism idea. The study of nooshpere is greatly influenced by the inclusion in it of the ideas of SD. Let us emphasize the difference between the new (non-classic) and the old (classic) stages of the study (when SD was not yet taken into consideration). Non-classic stage presents noosphere genesis as the process that stems from the global transition to SD and proceeds as an alike socionatural evolution (Fig. 7). 78 New Branches of Globalistics Classic stage (study of noosphere) Non-classicstage: noosphere genesis via sustainable development (noosphereology) Figure 7. Stages of formulating of the noosphere concept Global nature of the future noosphere will serve as its main characteristic, therefore, neoglobalism can be defined as a formation of sphere of thought on a planetary scale that can by studied by means of neoglobalistics. Planetary nature of neoglobalism is determined not only by globalization and other global processes, but also by global development and global activity on the whole. It is of high importance to direct so far spontaneous globalization to noosphere and SD. Economic and social requirements should be added to the existing ecological imeratives, possibly accompanied in the future by certain noospheric and SD goal. In due course neoglobalistics and futuroglobalistics will formulate these principles. A planned humanity’s transition to SD will preserve biosphere and lead to formation of noosphere first as a result of SD and then – of more complex noosphere-intellectual transformations of sociosphere. This very stage should be titled noospherology – as opposed to the study of noosphere on the first stage of its formation – thus transforming noospheric studies into science. We believe that evolutionary globalistics (futuroglobalistics) will study futurogenesis and SD as the most desirable global processes and systems. Its object field is already being developed. Noospherology studies noospherogenesis by means of SD and differs greatly from the views of noosphere founder, as has been explained earlier. Noospherology and globalistics can be perceived as integrated parts of each other. If globalistics is presented as an element of noospherology, it transformes into neoglobalistics that studies noospherogenesis on the global scale. It is currently of key importance to outline to outline basic fields of science and a system of scientific search, that would integrate globalistics, noospherology and concept of SD (Fig. 8). Noospherology, just as globalistics, is percieved as interdisciplinary, integrative scientific search that studies consistent patterns and processes of formation of noosphere, possibiilities for survival and SD of civilization and full implementation of humanistic ideals and principles. This complex approach succeeds traditional perception of the future in the framework of publicized concept of postindustrial society and model of unsustainable development (USD). Globalistics Nooglobali stics Noospherology Figure 8. Neoglobalistics as an interconnection of globalistics and noospherology 79 I.V. Ilyn, A.D. Ursul. Nooglobalism and Nooglobalistics We believe that transition to SD can be perceived as an innovational global process of transformation of sociosphere into noosphere that would preserve civilization. Noosphere will be formed as a result of co-evolutionary relations between sociosphere and biosphere. Humanity must limit its impact on biosphere to an acceptable level of several percent withdrawal of biosubstance, which would sufficiently decrease anthropogenic influence. Moreover, not only biosphere should be modified, but also other geospheres, but this process should never go beyond the “co-evolutionary-ecological corridor”. Study of noospherogenesis should be based on the principle of equity, that in the official UN document often perceived as the main SD principle, meaning equity of opportunities for current and future generations. But this principle must also be perceived through socionatural understanding, id est extending this principle for the most of living creatures that cannot be eradicated by human. Thus, noospherogenesis will provide the area of both planetary and cosmic scale with a much higher level of security than before. Dominating role will belong to global nature of this process that will influence other forms of security and global noospheric security will be ensured by future progressive development of noospherogenesis. As opposed to past perception of spontaneous transformation of biosphere into noosphere, it is currently believed that the sphere of thought should first be modeled and formed theoretically by means of science, and only after that should be applied in social and socionatural spheres. Noospherogenesis will be accompanied by a new principle of rationalism – noospheric rationalism (this term already exists in spite of Greek-Latin tautology) – and also by new forms of rationality that emphasize the role of mind and optimization of social action during the transformation to SD. That is why current (or global) rationalism is closely connected with civilization survival. Global rationalism will transform into a noospheric form of rationalism that is linked to the formation of the sphere of thought by means of SD. Postindustrial society will serve as “the end of history” of the USD model, since the next stage of spontaneous development might lead to the destruction of civilization. Since the first important step is to solve administrative issues, the logic of noospheric stages becomes evident. On the first stage the formation of knowledge society by means of SD will take place, thus creating infonoosphere (refer to the section on informational globalistics). The next stage (econosphere) will solve global ecological problem and future coevolution will be ensured with formation of ecosecure society at its end. The next stages of noospherogenesis will solve other global problems and ensure SD in the space environment. Supposedly, cosmization will be increased, along with large-scale exploration of space, formation of cosmonoosphere and even astronoosphere (Fig. 9). Infonoosphere Econoosphere Cosmonoosphere Astronoosphere Figure 9. Estimated stages of noospherogenesis (formation of the sphere of thought) However, this perception concentrates on socio-technological basis of the future noosphere. But the title itself – sphere of thought – emphasizes not so much the material element of intelligence, but informational, intellectual, moral and even spiritual factors. Clearly enough, aforementioned factors cannot exist without a material basis, and noosphere is a material-ideal formation, but the dominating factor appears to be the mind in its new 80 New Branches of Globalistics form. Of course, the ideal appears later in the process of development – just as human intelligence will dominate more and more. This very stage of substance development, marked by delegation of Universe’s destiny to human intelligence, should be linked with noosphere. Thus, consciousness advancing existence, dominating role of mind are the key characteristics of the upcoming globaly-noosphericsocionatural development. The formation of noosphere suggests information to become the main resource of development (which would help to save energy reserves) along with priority development of informational processes of intellectual culture (science, management, education). Moral values and human knowledge will become the main criteria for the level of development, humanity will be consistent with social and natural environment and conditions of universal security will be provided. Noosphere formed by means of SD will provide necessary conditions for manifestation of positive traits the humanity already possesses. In its idea form, global noosphere will constitute a socionatural system where moral global integral intelligence will exercise planetary feed-forward management. Thisintelligencewillbeformed by means of computer and telecommunication technologies, featuring the system of artificial intelligence and global informational network. I.V. Ilyn1, A.D. Ursul2 Evolutionary Globalistics Several years ago the authors of this article introduced a new term of ‘evolutionary globalistics’ into the object field of global studies. Any global crisis, including the natural one, represents a dangerous decrease in the stability of a certain global process or in the self-preservation of a system under the influence of external and internal negative factors and conditions, which can undermine the process or destabilize the system, leading to the global catastrophe. The problems of crises are widely discussed both in the context of global economic crisis and in a wider, universally evolutionary sense. Moreover, a new field of studies, devoted to the analysis of different types of global catastrophes and possible threats to the humanity, is currently being developed. Global catastrophes of cosmic, planetary and anthropogenic nature and their possible combinations are analyzed. Furthermore, their influence on the future existence of the humanity on Earth is estimated. Basing on certain data derived from natural history sciences, certain scientists suggest that the mankind may soon perish due to evolutionary processes. Global problems represent a concentration of negative consequences of the preceding phases of world development and the exacerbation of contradictions that can lead to global crisis-catastrophic consequences. In order to overcome a certain crisis of a global scale caused by global problems and negative processes, the humanity needs to undertake well-coordinated actions. The degradationary-regressive nature of the consequences of the global problems’ intensification determines the necessity to overcome them as a way of passing to the progressive positive track of global development (or, as it was discovered approximately twenty years ago, to the track of sustainable development as a new type of development 1 2 Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Professor. Academician, Professor of Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU. I.V. Ilyn, A.D. Ursul. Evolutionary Globalistics 81 preserving both the civilization and biosphere). However, in order to move on to the sustainable development, the humanity needs to form a new type of governance– global governance, controlling the shift to this type of socionatural development. That is why the changes in the global problems development – from negative trends and their consequences to the positive ones – can be also analyzed in the evolutionary aspect. Global problems are yet another form of global development that calls for a reverse in their further evolutionary continuation in order to be overcome. One can clearly see the interaction of progressive and regressive processes and trends of the world development in globalization and global problems as the forms of global development. We believe that the identification of such evolutionary trends both in global political processes and in other fields of globalization will be one of the objectives of the new field of studies – political globalistics. Its ultimate aim will be to provide recommendations concerning the effective steps of reducing the negative (regressive) consequences of global processes and intensifying their positive (progressive) trends. Despite the fact that the majority of scientists regard globalization as a positive process (in the axiological perception of this global type of development) of the creation of an interconnected integral world as a result of the human activity, this phenomenon, in the context of the chaotic development of the modern world, is characterized by the intensification of its negative consequences. It is connected with the chaotic development of globalization and other global processes which need to be managed on a global scale in an anticipatory manner. However, political globalization appears to lag behind many other globalization processes, such as economic globalization and inforzmatization. Political aspect of globalization and other global processes will become evident when any efforts of solving global problems are undertaken. It will encourage the corresponding political transformations on a global scale which are supposed to lead to the intensification of the progressive and innovative processes in the future. The analysis of global processes (including globalization and global problems) in the evolutionary aspects is a very important step to understanding their essence and full contents as well as seeing their interconnection and interaction with other global processes. Evolutionary analysis of global processes provides a more effective way of using these processes in the formation of global activity and especially global governance. If we take the statement made above, that globalistics is the field of knowledge that studies global processes and systems, as the initial point, it will be possible to get another perspective of the field of studies of globalistics and even of global knowledge in general. Although the problem of development was never denied in globalistics and the evolutionary aspect in some way was reflected even in the definition of this scientific field, the “processual-evolutionary” factor has not yet occupied a decent place in global studies. Globalistics could not initially appear in its “evolutionary version”, as on the primary stage of formation of this scientific field, the object of studies is defined and described and then the systemization process starts. On the further stages of development methods of study and approaches corresponding to the object of study are formed. This if the formation process of almost all the branches of science and globalistics is not an exception. We can take not only biology and geology as an example, but economics as well, as the theoretical part of this science has been developing for several centuries but only in the last thirty years evolutionary economics appeared as a field of science. It was in fact the same period of time when the formation of globalistics started. 82 New Branches of Globalistics The evolutionary basis provides an opportunity to predict the formation of new fields of global studies, practical global activity and especially global education. So far, globalistics has started the formation of its field of study both in theoretical and practical (including educational) aspects. The suggestion that the field of studies of globalistics includes not only globalization and global problems but also wider categories of global processes and systems in their evolution (better to say coevolution), makes a significant change in the theoretically cognitive situation in global studies. The evolutionary stage of creation of global knowledge came into place superseding the initial elementally accumulative and mainly descriptive period of development of globalistics. The process of creation of global knowledge on this new stage among all develops as well according to the suggested conceptually-theoretical model of evolutionary globalistics. We consider the possible development of evolutionary globalistics– one of the field of global studies in all their aspects – as well as a new stage of formation of global knowledge. It is most likely that on the first stage evolutionary globalistics will develop as one of the branches of globalistics together with other fields of global studies. However, as the necessity of using the evolutionary approach in global studies will be understood, this sphere will be filled with development ideas and it is quite likely that a new, evolutionary stage of global knowledge will start. Here we offer not only a processually-systematic but also evolutionary, or, better to say, globally-evolutionary approach which allows to define more adequately the place of globalistics and global processes and systems studied in it in modern science and the general scientific world-perception of the era of globalization. Using simultaneously both processual and evolutionary concepts widens the perspectives of the global knowledge development, giving an opportunity to include globalistics more actively in the processes of inter-andtransdiciplinary synthesis as well as to form a integrative generally scientific knowledge in its planetary dimension. A clearer understanding of the object field of globalistics will provide an effective process of formation of different fields of global practical activity. The understanding of the place and role of certain global phenomena in the evolutionary process will enable the scientific community to take more effective steps in practical activity oriented on the survival of the civilization and the preservation of biosphere – the natural basis of its existence. Evolutionary approach in globalistics is especially important for global education, responsible for forming advanced consciousness on planetary scale, aimed at achieving noosphericallyhumanitarian goals (neoglobalistic world-view). It is important to analyze the development of global education and corresponding systems of training and upbringing in global processes in the direction that facilitates the attempts to overcome global problems and helps the survival of the world community. If globalistics and the global knowledge in general should be considered as one of the leading fields of science of the XXI century, global education, currently being formed, may become a catalyst accelerating the transition of the educational process on a brand new level, corresponding to the planetary-noospheric future of the humanity. The application of integrative general scientific methods and approaches stimulates the emergence of new fields of global studies. Thus, the implementation of the suggested evolutionary and universallyevolutionary approaches to global studies let us project such new spheres of study as paleoglobalistics, cosmoglobalistics, futuroglobalistics and some other. The field of globalistics studying mainly natural and socionatural global processes that took place in the past can be called paleoglobalistics. Contemporary global processes are studied in a I.V. Ilyn, A.D. Ursul. Evolutionary Globalistics 83 transdisciplinary field of scientific research which is traditionally referred to simply as globalistics (modern globalistics) or neoglobalistics. And finally, the field of global studies that concentrates on understanding an forecasting the future of global processes and systems can be called futuroglobalistics. Globalistics unite the tree temporal fields of global studies mentioned above and sets a trend of their analysis in evolutionary aspect. The synthesis of neoglobalistic, futuroglobalistic and paleoglobalistic fields of global studies is one of the most important aims of globalistics as a world-view and a field of science and education. This, however, requires their development as separate branches of globalistics. Evolutionary globalistics unites two world outlooks and methodological approaches: evolutionism and globalism. Globalism here is considered in its wider meaning as a worldview analyzing the world from the perspective of general development concepts, regarding it as a directed changes in the essence of processes and systems (progress, regress and other forms and directions of development). Without diving into the general development theory and the history of evolutionism, we would like to draw the readers’ attention to the existence of more concise definitions of evolutionism. Evolutionism (fig. 1) in modern understanding is a concept (and methodological approach) analyzing the process under consideration not only from the point of view of their dynamics, transformations, changes, but also taking into consideration their development and evolution. This is a wider interpretation of evolutionism, which does not regard development simply as gradual quantitative changes. Figure 1. Evolutionism Evolutionism (Fig. 2) is a type of world perception analyzing everything in the context of the following ways of understanding development: 1) as directed changes in the essence of processes and systems; 2) as progressive quantitative and qualitative directed transformations of tangible objects; 3) as gradual and reversible quantitative changes of objects without qualitative leaps. Globalism (Fig. 2) as a global variant of systematic approach is a world perception concentrated on the recognition of the world as a planetary whole and of the humanity as a united world community, in which global characteristics prevail and the involvement into the universal problems and processes in widely realized. 84 New Branches of Globalistics Figure 2. Globalism Development in its wider sense is defined as processes or tangible objects that demonstrate directed and, as a rule, irreversible changes of their contents or structure. The fact that processes can either evolve in a progressive way, when a process (system) is becoming more complex, or develop in a regressive direction, turning towards simplicity, degradation and decay, demonstrates the aforementioned directionality of development (Fig. 3). There exist other forms of development which exist as combinations of the ones mentioned above – neutral, wave, cyclic, circular development etc. However, all these forms are certain combinations of progressive and regressive trends (fragments). Progress ← Global Processes and Systems → Regress Figure 3. Possible Evolutionary trends (directions) of evolutionary processes In a wider understanding the concept of development and evolution are practically equivalent. Evolution in this interpretation involves quantitative and qualitative spasmodic changes, as well as the interconnection between progressive, regressive, cyclically-wave and other types and forms of development existing in nature. We mainly use the wider understanding of evolution as a synonym to the concept of development. The correlation between historical and evolutionary approaches in globalistics is one of important problems in this aspect. If the evolutionary approach coincided with the historical one, Ch. Darwin would not have had to create his special evolutionary biology and many other fields of science would not have formed their evolutionary branches. The historical approach in globalistics in the form of historical globalistics appeared earlier than the evolutionary one. The historical approach consisted of time ordered facts and events description mainly in the social sphere, i.e. social dynamics in a temporal aspect. I.V. Ilyn, A.D. Ursul. Evolutionary Globalistics 85 In contrast to the historical approach, the evolutionary method of analysis of processes and phenomena does not consider all the temporal dimensions, but only the most important ones, often qualitative transformations and estimates the directions of such changes, identifying whether they should be considered as complicacy or simplification, progress or regression. Evolutionary method is also different from the logical one, which is also contrasted with the historical approach. Another peculiarity of the historical approach is connected with the fact, that history, which has to be based on the facts can not competently analyse the future, where no facts exist so far. That is why the historical approach is mainly based on the analysis of the past and only partly present, which, by the end of the analytical process, becomes the past. Therefore history is associated with the science of the past, where, certainly, some development processes can be singled out. However the timing aspect and special attention given to the past prevail in the historical approach. Development processes could be to a certain extend detected in the past, however evolutionary processes do not coincide with the chronological order of events already due to the fact that they are not the phenomena of linear timing nature, which is required by the historical approach. The historical approach registers only sequences of facts and events and is not defined by the objective logic of the development of the object under consideration, which, in turn is analyzed in the evolutionary approach. In course of time historians try to link their science to a certain perception of it in the evolutionary aspect. First they used to identify the historical process with progress considering all the regressive changes accidental or deviating from the main trend of social dynamics. Then the ideas of circulation and cyclical wave development, often seen in nature, became popular. After that the idea of the end of history emerged, and not only allegorically (for instance, the way it was described by F. Fukuyama). The historical approach turns out to depend on the evolutionary understanding of history, which provides additional arguments in favor of the the difference between the two approaches under discussion. That is why historical globalistics is not the same as evolutionary globalistics, whereas the historical approach in globalistics cannot be identified with the evolutionary one in the same branch of studies (Fig. 4). Figure 4. Historical and Evolutionary Globalistics 86 New Branches of Globalistics Thus, historical globalistics is rather description and, to a certain extent, temporally evidential reflection of the world dynamics of human existence whereas evolutionary globalistics is the study of evolution and coevolution of global processes and their systematically synergetic phenomenon – global development. The general scientific approaches and methods mentioned above (such as global modeling, systematic, historical, ecological, socionatural, evolutionary, coevolutionary, synergetic, informational and other) facilitate greatly the globally integrative development of science. In general, there is no method or approach implemented solely in globalistics. Some branches of the aforementioned methods are just being formed. Even globalism as a global variant of systematic approach is a world perception concentrated on the recognition of the world as a planetary whole and of the humanity as a united world community, in which global characteristics prevail and the involvement into the universal problems and processes in widely realized. On the early stages of development of globalistics systematic approach and global modeling played an important part. After that the development of synergetic approach began, which became the basis of implementation of the evolutionary approach in globalistics. Synergetics is a branch of science studying cooperative processes and self-organizing (or selfdisorganizing) systems in non-linear and unbalanced environment. These are the types of environment in which global processes take place on the global scale. Self-organization as a process of complication of the evolving global system or process, the increase of its informational contents (the growth of the diversity of its elements, connections, relations etc.) is of special interest for globalistics, Self-disorganization, also studied by synergetics, can be considered a regressive branch of development, whereas selforganization can to a certain extent be identified with a progressive branch of evolution, as this process includes the increase of complication and organization of evolving global processes and systems. We regard globalistics as the most important component of the forming system of integrated general scientific knowledge that defines the modern scientific world-view on the universal or global evolutionism. The integrated general scientific knowledge is formed via transdisciplinary synthesis of integrative processes in science. This system consists of forms of knowledge with most general field of studies and is used in many (and someday, probably, in all) sciences. Evolutionary globalistics will be formed as transdisciplinary-conceptual approach to the analysis of global processes and systems in the evolutionary aspect and, above all, will be based on the results achieved in global (universal) evolutionism. Development ideas came into globalistics in different ways including integrated evolutionary concepts of the branches of science engaged into globalistics. However, global evolutionism can be considered the most important in this aspect, as it perentrates more and more scientific disciplines and research spheres including global studies. Global evolutionism represents the basis of modern scientific world-view and a form of global (universal) evolution, in which self-organization of material systems is the main permanent process in the observable Universe. Global evolution is a continuous self-organization of material systems first in inanimate nature, then in the living substance and society, and after that – in the socionatural form (fig. 5). It is quite clear that the evolutionary approach penetrated global studies in different forms, however, it happens not as intensively and effectively as when general scientific principles and approaches, already discovered in global evolutionism, are applied. 87 I.V. Ilyn, A.D. Ursul. Evolutionary Globalistics Evolutionary Levels Non-organic Nature Submicroelementary Microelementary Nuclearic Atomic Organic Nature Biological macromoleclularic Cellar Microorganic Organs and tissues Moleclularic Macro level Mega level (planets, starplanetary systems, galaxies) Meta level (Metagalaxy) Organism itself Population Biocenosis Community Individual Family Collective Big social groups (classes, nations) State (Civil society) Regional systems of State Humanity itself Biosphere Noosphere Figure 5. Results of the Global Evolution A.D. Ursul1 Cosmoglobalistics (Space or Cosmic Global Studies) The idea that the mankind and the universe are united has a long-standing tradition in both eastern and western antiquity. Later on this idea has been picked up by such eminent naturalists as Tsiolkovsky, Vernadsky, Chizhevsky who developed the concept of anthropocosmology. Basing on that concept, the father of cosmonautics Tsiolkovsky (Fig. 1) initiated cosmic global studies. Thus, the history of the scientific development of global studies recaptures the history of our planet, that has space origins and continues to interact with the space. Figure 1. K.E. Tsiolkovsky (1857–1935) From anthropocosmology to cosmic global studies The recognition of global problems and the development of global studies aimed at solving these problems could have never happened without scientific reflections on space and the role of our planet in it. Anthropocosmology at its contemporary stage operates on the basis of modern scientific knowledge, the interdisciplinary approach and the principle of 1 Academician, Professor of Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU. 88 New Branches of Globalistics evolutionism. Having integrated the most basic laws of natural, social, technological and other branches of science, anthropocosmology today evolves into anthropogeocosmology (Fig. 2). Cosmology Anthropocosmology Anthropogeocosmology Figure 2. Forms of development of the Space Worldview What this means is that even with the advance of space technologies our planet remains the focus of the mankind’s attention and that cosmic global studies shall mostly be aimed at solving global problems on Earth and establishing the successful transition of mankind to sustainable development. This means that even in the long-term perspective most of man’s energy shall be devoted to sustaining life of mankind here, on Earth. Therefore, the development and growth of the space component of man’s activities will evolve slowly and gradually rather than quickly and spasmodically as has been previously thought by some space scientists. The outlook on the world characterized by picturing the world as one unity and the humanity as part of it exceeds the limits of our own planet and integrates the ideas of cosmology, humanism and globalism. This outlook presented by anthropogeocosmology, which manages to unite the global problems on Earth with global problems in space, remains the basic, fundamental concept of cosmic global studies (Fig. 3). Anthropogeocosmology CosmicGlobalStudies Figure 3. Space forms of the globalism Global Studies and cosmic global studies The scientific usage of the notion ‘global’ has been established before it was ever used in global studies. This is due to the possibility of viewing our planet and the mankind from space given to us by space exploration. While it helped to unite the mankind and the planet, we must single out the two main aspects of such process. The first one concerns the systematic, historical and geographical characteristics of the unification, while the second one contains the basic features that the mankind has in common that started the consolidation process even before there was any contact between the dispersed fragments of ancient human civilizations. The process we are talking about is globalization and so we can see the two directions of learning about it: the first method is to view this phenomenon as developing from space and to our planet, and the second one, on the contrary, from the locality of our planet to its place in the global space. Thus we can establish a special brunch of global studies devoted to studying space, our role in it and its impact on us. This branch, called global studies, began to develop in 1980-s and was designed to study the basic laws and main tendencies of the global processes and problems on Earth, the role space plays in those processes and problems and the possibilities of cosmonautics in solving those problems. It was designed to study the impact of cosmic factors on the global development on Earth and to examine whether the global evolution on Earth evolves into cosmic evolution (Fig. 5). A.D. Ursul. Cosmoglobalistics (Space or Cosmic Global Studies) 89 Figure 4. The Interaction between the Earth and Space. Picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin Cosmic globalstudies Evaluating space impact on the global processes and systems development on Earth Tracing global processes and problems development to space Figure 5. The Subject Field of Space Globalistics Nevertheless, today we shall broaden this approach and include the interdependence between natural and cosmic processes into the field of study of cosmic global studies. Such an inclusion may in some aspect be a methodological innovation provided by the new understanding of global studies and the development of evolutionary global studies (from global evolution to cosmic evolution). Even though some of these processes have been previously studied by cosmonautics and other sciences, global studies have their own focus of study. That is, they concentrate on how these processes influence mankind and how mankind influences these processes. Global catastrophes and geocosmic security. Tsiolkovsky was one of the first scientists to underline the dangers coming from space. In his writing he talked about ‘global hostile powers that the humanity needs to guard against or it may be destroyed’. Whereas learning about these powers, in his opinion, ‘will help to 90 New Branches of Globalistics advance the development of humanity, as the knowledge of this impending danger shall make mankind exert itself and use all mental and technological methods to conquer nature’. That means that Tsiolkovsky understood the importance of the security issue, that he realized that further development of mankind is impossible without insuring its global safety. The analysis of Tsiolkovsky’s writing shows that it was this security issue he tried to solve when he invented the space rocket mechanism. In his opinion, this mechanism could be used as a tool to ensure the humanity ‘a free passway’ to space. Such a tool would give the mankind a possibility to explore not only the nearest planets but also the most distant stars whose energy could be used for our further development. This is a possibility of saving the humanity by ensuring its future development with the means of cosmonautics. This is how Tsiolkovsky proposed to face the ‘global dangers’ he dwelled upon in his writing. Nevertheless, for now the Tsiolkovsky’s idea of sustainable development in space (for this is how we can view the concept today) cannot be fully realized due to the lack of technology necessary. Therefore, for at least several decades cosmonautics will have to concentrate on preserving the life of mankind on Earth while gradually forming the new paradigm of human development ‘Mankind-Earth-Universe’ (Fig. 6). Figure 6. Antrpogeocosmologic system «Mankind – Earth – Universe». Picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin In this situation the global studies become very important, particularly in the aspect of studying the possibilities of asteroid-comet threat. Space objects have repeatedly bombarded our planet and surely this problem may arise one more time. As of lately much attention has been devoted to the asteroid Apophis (1 km in diameter), which was discovered in 2004 and was considered to experience a close encounter with Earth in 2036. The chances of this encounter have been since lowered, yet remain, and today scientists consider different possibilities of preventing the catastrophe if necessary. Evidently, solving such an issue in case it arises must be considered of highest priority. One of the variants would be to create a safeguard system all around the planet, which may become possible in the nearest decades (Fig. 7). A.D. Ursul. Cosmoglobalistics (Space or Cosmic Global Studies) 91 Figure 7. The asteroid & comet danger There is a certain ambiguity about the fortune of the humanity in case of such a catastrophe. Before it seemed clear that the mankind should vanish together with the planet.The idea of human development in space lead to a new understanding that we shall leave the planet at some point and not bind its fate to ours. However, another possible cause for a global catastrophe remains in the humanity itself. For instance, mankind processes enough nuclear materials that in case of a military conflict will not only destroy our civilization, but also the life on the planet itself. Global cosmic studies conduct an in-depth research analyzing the possibilities of global catastrophes and space dangers of different kinds that may pose a threat to humanity. The analysis includes catastrophes of both geocosmic and anthropogenic origins and considers their possible impact on the future fates of the humanity. Space exploration as a global problem. Space exploration as a global problem has its own, specific position in global studies since the need in space exploration is typical for all countries and nations, that is, for the humanity in general. It is important, that the founder of the theoretical cosmonautics K.E. Tsiolkovsky had precisely the same vision of the cosmic activity of mankind. He never took as premise the narrow national interest and considered that only by expansion of the living space of mankind as a whole and by space colonization the humanity shall obtain new energy, special and primary resources for raising production. From this point of view, it becomes self-evident that that the outer space should be and intrinsically already is the patrimony of the whole humankind. This fact is to certain extent enshrined in the Treaty on Principles Governing Activities of States in Exploration and Use of Outer Space (1967) and in further treaties and rules of international law. It is also important to mention that though the definition ‘international’ concerns primarily cosmos , it is not limited by the outer space. It can be also applied to Earth, when regarding the activity connected with launching of space devices and their exploitation or the 92 New Branches of Globalistics return of the device to the planet. Thus, international space law actually represents the judicial realization of the concept of cosmic global studies, which apart from its juridical aspect pocesses other ways of development. The international space law acts as a juridical explication of cosmic global ideas and principles when applying them to terrestrial and the outer spaces. Figure 8. Stages of the Global Evolution (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) Unfortunately, global processes and problems that have a general impact on the world are also to some extent a manifestation of global cosmic nature of contradictions connected with the expansion of the human activity. We have to admit that as as the development of geopolitics happened to be connected with global studies, so the development of cosmic A.D. Ursul. Cosmoglobalistics (Space or Cosmic Global Studies) 93 global studies is followed by the formation of cosmic geopolitics, despite different denominations to it introduced by scientists. For instance, western scientists have proposed the concept of astro-politics or geopolitics of the outer space according to which the USA should hold the dominant position in a struggle for the planets of the Solar system and for the resources located there. In fact, this new doctrine of cosmic geopolitics has been developed in the United States for several decades now. It logically continues the doctrine of ‘extensive’ geopolitics, meaning the idea of expansion of living boundaries within the Earth. This doctrine forms one of the most extravagant elements of the American concept of neogloglobalism that has nothing in common with the concept of sustainable development. Nowadays, when global studies involve the studies of global natural processes, the subject field of cosmic global studies can also be developed to include the cosmogonic processes that have formed our planet and not only the history of Earth evolution itself. The evolution of our planet has since its birth experienced the considerable influence of outer space, and this fact shows the cosmic nature of physical and social processes and problems. In this case the scientific field of cosmic global studies appears to be even broader than the one of the global studies, since it concerns both the Earth and outer space. At this point it seems important to understand the subject field of cosmic global studies within the framework of the concept of global evolutionism. In the latter three main periods of universal evolution have been established: cosmic, starting from the Big Bang, the further planetary stage of evolution and finally the stage of continuously expanding space exploration. It seems apparent that cosmic global studies will focus its attention on the transitions from the first cosmic stage to the planetary one and from the latter to the following one of the Big socio-environmental Bang (Fig. 8). Extrasolar expansion of the scientific filed of cosmic global studies Since the end of the last century, when numerous planets evolving around other stars were discovered (which are now known as exoplanets or extrasolar planters) it has become clear, that there is a substantially big number of planets in the Universe. Whereas just recently the number of such discovered planets was around 500, nowadays there are already over 1000 of them. The majority of them was discovered with the use of the cosmic telescope ‘Kepler’, launched by NASA in 2009. It has also become evident that the characteristics of a considerably large number of planets are similar to the properties of the Earth and Jupiter planets of the Solar System. There has been compiled a list of planets, that have the highest chances of being inhabited. The highest priority among these planets have the Saturn’s satellite Titan and the exoplanet Gliese 581g that is located 20.5 light years away from the Earth in the constellation Spring. The planets that we expect to have a theoretical possibility of being inhabited were mostly assessed according to their similarity with our Earth. While comparing the planets with the Earth the following parameters were used: size, distance from the parent-star, character of the surface, existence of the magnetic field, planet’s mass and other. As it was mentioned above, many global natural processes such as volcanic activity, planets’ rotation, atmospheric processes run identically or seemingly on different planets (Fig. 9). The ultimate goal of such kind of research is to detect the potential candidates for future resettlement of the humankind, in case such necessity will occur in the future. Therefore, there is a possibility that cosmic global studies will develop in the direction of exoplanetary global studies, at least that exoplanetary processes will become the subject of 94 New Branches of Globalistics research of global studies. However, such studies may concern not only exoplanets and the possibility of a planetary resettlement for the purpose of prolonging the existence of the humankind as K.E. Tsiolkovsky supposed. It is also possible that one of the scientific fields of cosmic global studies will be an issue of the search for extraterrestrial civilizations. Figure 9. Exoplanet The global methodology of the search for extraterrestrial civilizations Another possibility of broadening of the scientific field of cosmic global studies is presented to us by the question of extraterrestrial civilizations. When studying such issues, we make a step on the territory of new science, the science of the noosphere’s epoch. Not only are there not less, but actually more theories and hypothesis than in cosmology. In fact, cosmology deals with an already discovered object – Universe – may fragments of which demand further exploration. However, astronomy and astrosociology (for this is how we may call this evolving science) are only making their first steps in the search for extraterrestrial forms of life. These forms of life have not yet been discovered, which means this search has to be based on looking for analogies with the human civilization. To be more precise, all the arguments for such search have to be built on the humankind, which is not the intrinsic object of academic interest. The search for general patterns of humanity´s cosmic development should not be detached from the attempts to explore the tendencies of development of potential extraterrestrial civilizations, hence, from the study of the shared development patterns of social structures both on the Earth and in outer space. Such an approach raises a question of how the development patterns of civilizations in the Universe correlate with the principles of the evolution of matter. The issue of extraterrestrial civilizations complies with the concept of anthropological geocosmism, which formulates the idea of the necessity and priority of cosmonautics development for the sake of resolving the global problems on Earth and forming the new global paradigm ‘Humanity-Earth-Universe’, the latter being the methodological basis for cosmic global studies. One of the main aims of the search for extraterrestrial civilizations is assisting the development of those branches of science that view the human civilization as a systemic dynamically developing object. Thus a methodological synthesis starts to teethe that permits A.D. Ursul. Cosmoglobalistics (Space or Cosmic Global Studies) 95 us to discover how the tendencies of global evolution lead to the appearance of its social stage (currently the top one) and how the evolution of the latter affects the global characteristics of development of the matter in the Universe and even affect the evolution of Universe as a whole. The search for extraterrestrial civilizations is based on the hope, that we may discover certain artifacts of an extraterrestrial origin that will have a artificial, cultural nature. Scientists also try to recognize among the signals and information noise that we receive from outer space some sensible data that can be considered a message of an extraterrestrial culture. Further developing the subject field of cosmic global studies The further possible expanding of the scientific field of global cosmic studies is based on the previously mentioned similarity of the notions of global and cosmic. This means, we deviate from the associating planetary and global and consider it a characteristic of universal. Driving apart from its terrestrial definition, this term then obtains the sense of all encompassing and universal. This broad meaning shall be further applied to cosmic global studies (Fig. 10). Figure 10. Two main spacial definitions of the term “global”. Picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin No more than ten years has passed since a new mysterious substance was discovered the dark energy – that accounts for about 74% of material “filling” of the Universe. Since the first half of the last century the so-called hidden matter has been discovered known nowadays as the dark mass (Fig. 11). The latter also neither absorbs, nor radiates the light. If we take into consideration the fact, that this second form of matter accounts for more than 20% of all the “energy mix” of the Universe, we will come to conclusion, that all the contemporary science is based on the studies of only several percent of material content of the Universe. For better perception we can draw an anology with an icebereg, the underwater part of which represents dark fragments of the Universe, while the visible part the physical, radiant matter (Fig. 12). 96 New Branches of Globalistics Figure 11. The distribution of the maim forms and kinds of Matter in the Universe Physical fragment of the Universe (baryonic matter) –about 5% of energy\mass of the Universe Dark energy (cosmic vacuum) – about 74% of energy\mass of the Universe Dark mass (hidden matter) – about 22% of energy\mass of the Universe Average density of baryonic matter 2х10-31g/cm3 Average density of dark energy 7х10-30g/cm3 Average density of dark mass 2х10-30 g/ m3 Characteristics: Characteristics: Characteristics 1. Evolves. 2. Complies with the law of gravitation. 3. Has been expanding for about 7 billion years with a growing speed. 1. Neither changes, nor evolves. 2. Has the antigravitation propriety, causes the expansion of the Universe. 3. Content and structure are unknown 4. Is not influenced neither by the dark matter, no by the baryonic one. 1. Changes but does not evolve. 2. Complies the law of gravitation. 3. Supposedly consists of very heavy and stable particles of an unknown origin. Figure 12. Fundamental forms of the existence of the Matter in the Universe The dark part of the Universe appears to be the main, basic component of all the physical and energy content of the Universe. In the basis of it lies self-preservation which prevails over changes and evolution, that is typical for the visible part of the Universe. Our Universe is dominated by a component, which is nor changing neither developing, followed by the slightly changing dark matter. Only the third comes the mostly studied evolving component in the form of visible substance. Such is the pyramid of the main forms of selfpreservation and existence of the matter in the Universe. The possible broadening of the research field of cosmic global studies shows that this new branch of science boasts a big, truly cosmic future. Even if the scientific scenario of enlarging the research field will not be realized to a full extent, the potential of the proposed A.D. Ursul. Cosmoglobalistics (Space or Cosmic Global Studies) 97 cosmic extension of global studies shall play its key role in the development of crossdisciplinary connections and cross-disciplinary research that will reveal the yet-unknown boarders of the scientific reach. A.D. Ursul1 Information globalitics Humanity is currently undergoing the processes of constant information revolution and accelerating informatization, which lay the ground for the global information society transforming into a knowledge- and education-based society with its overtaking development of science, education etc. After the information term became a universal category in the middle of the XX century, science about information took the lead among the contemporary scientific trends. More to that, informatics was put in a line with such fundamental branches of science as physics, chemistry and biology. All these changes ultimately resulted in emergence of the socalled “informational” word outlook, which nowadays is helping humanity to realize its position within the global world. Due to numerous attempts of humanity to grasp the global role of information, information approaches as well as information in general is currently the focus of scientific attention. Today this problem is widely considered within the inter disciplinary sciences and is becoming a genuinely global one analyzed even by synergetics, physics and cosmology. However, it must be said that an attempt for analysis of the information problem has been already made several years ago and today we observe its “renaissance”, which is dealing with the need to expand categorical meaning of information and to review its problem field. Information as an attributive element of matter. For the first time the “information question” was raised by American mathematician and engineer C. Shennon in 1948. He suggested methodology for Quantitative Analysis of Information and invented formula for information quantity, which can be compared today to the Einstein’s Е= mc2 by its significance (Fig. 1). Figure 1. Formula for information quantity of Shennon In future new methodological approaches of understanding of the information term appeared and one of them has become a theoretical basis for information globalistics. This approach implies that information exists in all parts of the universe along with energy and represents an intrinsic part of matter systems. It considers interaction between these systems as a specific form of exchange between substance, energy and information. According to our theory, all the global processes and systems can be viewed from this point of view. 1 Academician, Professor of Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU. 98 New Branches of Globalistics Informatics – science about information It was found out that informatics, which is closely connected with the information term, can be considered as a science about information. This means that in order to define its content (object field and scientific spheres) the information term should be defined firstly. Development of informatics was accelerated by the above-mentioned informatization process and was considered by most scientists from this particular point of view (Fig. 2). Informatization of society – process of acquiring information by means of computers and other informatics’ means with the purpose of satisfaction of increasing information needs and creation of information society, which implies a radical intellectually humanistic reconstruction of humanity’s living. Figure 2. Global process of informatization However, in our opinion, informatics should also concern essence of information and its distribution all over the universe. That is why, we need to expand the traditional understanding of informatics sand define it as the science about information and laws of its existence, movement and development. Informatization here must be considered as one of the processes of information existence and movement influencing other global processes. Current structure of the informatics object field, suggested by The Research Institute of Informatics Problems in RAS Fig. 3: Such an information approach can be widely used by popular interdisciplinary areas of study such as, for example, globalistics, which implies analysis of global processes and systems and uses terms and methodology of various sciences, including informatics. Synthesis of globalization and informatization might lead to creation of “global informatics” and “information globalistics” (Fig. 4). A.D. Ursul. Information globalitics 99 1. Theoretical basis of informatics 2. Technical informatics 3. Social informatics 4. Biological informatics 5. Physical informatics Figure 3. Structure of the informatics subject field Globalistics Informatics Information globalistics Global informatics Figure 4. Interaction of globalistics and informatics Information approach in globalistics Globalistics does not have its own methodology. Its methods (systematic, historical, evolutionary, synergetic, modeling etc.) are mostly taken from the other sciences. At the same time, it would be incorrect to skip the fact that global studies possess some specific approaches and areas, in particular, evolutionary approach and evolutionary globalism. Moreover, it was revealed that the above-mentioned scientific area is closely connected with information approach, since information criteria of the development is the major one within the framework of universal evolution. It must be said that information approach has dubious nature. On the one hand, it refers to globalistics in general. But on the other hand, information approach forms unique area of globalistics called information globalistics, which can be considered as an area of studies of information laws and features of global processes and systems. And this, in its turn, helps to create “global informatics’ which considers development of global information features and processes. Such vision became possible due to spread of information notions (concepts, approaches etc.) in globalistics and enabled us to follow evolution of global processes from the very creation of our planet in outer space till its contemporary geological evolution and prospective extraterrestrial way of development in future (for further information go to the chapter “Cosmoglobalistics”). It was found out that influence of information criteria on global development is huge and global evolution is followed by evolutionary information bang and accelerative accumulation of information (Fig. 5). Ip>Iorg>Imol>Iа>Ie, Quantity of information concerns not only separate structural units (“average” elementary particles, atoms, molecules, biological organisms, human) but also all the rest of them. Figure 5. Growth of information content in matter systems from the evolutionary point of view 100 New Branches of Globalistics Information globalistics fits in to physical, chemical, geological and other natural global processes (from the information point of view) as well as socio-biological and social processes. At the same time, significant areas of informatics are going to be “globalized” and to form an information vision of the global development. Emergence of global social informatics (which will study informational characteristics of the global civilization), global biological informatics (which will study information processes in biosphere etc) etc should be expected. Depending on the way information laws will manifest itself, these are as will have their own features. Areas of study in information globalistics As far as the major areas of the scientific research in information globalistics is concerned, a global information problem should be called at first. Its investigation started in 70–80-s of the previous century and was freezed after that due to emergence of the globalization problems (informatization and global information society). Today information global problem consists of different aspects and of paramount importance among them is analysis of the way information “famine” might be diminished within the framework of accelerating information “bang”. Total amount of knowledge has been changing very slowly until 1900 when it began to double each 50 years; after 1950 it was doubling each ten years and after 1970 – each 5 years. By the end of XX century information stream had been increased for more than several dozen times doubling annually after 1990. Currently it is extremely important to use processes of information globalization and media technologies in order to diminish the existing information “famine” and provide consumers with the needed information. Such trends as computerization, informatization, “mediazation” and spread of the Internet net started in the middle of the previous century might help us to achieve this goal. A particular attention should be paid to correlation between informatiztion and globalization. Informatization has become an intrinsic part of globalization and accelerated all the rest globalization processes, especially those in the field of economy. Economy and other global processes in its turn stimulated the informatization process greatly. There upon, information part of globalization can be considered as one of the most important globalization processes today. This process can be called information globalization (Fig. 6). Globalization Informati on globalizat ion Informatization Figure 6. Information globalization A.D. Ursul. Information globalitics 101 However, although the global information problem, globalization process of informatization and emergence of the global information society can be referred to areas of information globalistics, it would be incorrect to limit this field of study to the abovementioned ones only. These information processes are mostly dealing with social global processes, while globalistics analyzes a question of the natural global processes from the information point of view as well. Such attributive information concept enables one to solve world problems which are being at the center of everyone’s attention for many years. For instance, it gives an opportunity to explain in organic oil origin and to reveal a contradiction between the organic synthesis scheme and objective laws of informatics. On the ground mentioned above, we may consider inorganic a biogenic hypothesis for petroleum formation more accurate. Not only does it describe the inorganic genesis of hydrocarbons but also attempts to expound the geological distribution of crude oil reserves on the planet, which makes it easier to identify geological structures that may form oil reservoirs. Thereupon, analysis of global abiocenic processes might help to contour in formation lines of our planet evolution as an intrinsic part of the universal evolution more precisely. Although it is clear that a global exchange of substance, energy and information took place primarily with space and information systems during evolution, abiocenic environment still played a role in acceleration of the global evolution. Substance, mass-energy and space of the universal (global) evolution had been gradually diminishing in their volume and quantity. At the same time the hierarchy of the matter’s levels had been developing with its “security window” of existence and constant continuation of the super-trunk of this major form of evolutionary processes in the Universe (Fig. 7). Mass‐energy and space criteria of the global evolution Figure 7. Global evolution “window” At the same time, such a situation was not the case in information systems. There was internal accumulation of both elementary structural units and evolutionary units during the hierarchal rise of the global evolution. This means that information was more important that mass, energy, space and other attributes of the matter system during the global evolution which had been taking place on Earth for almost 5 bln years. This conclusion gives us a clue to an understanding of global processes and its systems, since appliance of that knowledge to social and socio-natural global processes reveals the reason behind rapid rise of information globalization. First of all, we should stick to the point developed by N.N. Moiseev, according to which informatization and other information processes are developing more rapidly comparing with the rest social processes. 102 New Branches of Globalistics More to that, a social stage of matter evolution, which put an end to the process of mass-energy and space pyramid decrease and formed a new type of pyramid aimed at development, was an essential factor of global evolution in social and natural forms. Such development has information roots and can be called Big Social Bang (by analogy with Big Bang of Universe) (Fig. 8): Mass‐energy, spatial and information criteria of the social stage of evolution Figure 8. Big Social Bang Increase of space and mass energy factors is connected with a special mechanism of information accumulation by environmental means. If at the biological evolutionary stage the process of information accumulation existed on a genetic level, it was transformed into nonorganism and non-genetic information process at the social evolutionary stage. This does not mean the social evolutionary stage totally lacks genetic processes of information accumulation and transformation. However, it is not genetic evolutionary processes which defined main information processes in society and its cultural development (Fig. 9): Culture can be characterized by non-genetic and exogenous type of information accumulation, transportation and transformation. It takes information from social environment and needs a lot of environmental objects to be used in order to withdraw social “waste” and extract necessary informative units only. Biosystems (genetic mechanism) Culture (non-genetic mechanism) Figure 9. Endogenous (genetic) and exogenous (socio-cultural) ways of information accumulation from environment The foundation of human’s world exploration (both terrestrial and extraterrestrial) has root information factors, which manifest itself on the socio-cultural level. They lie at the root of all the global social and socio-natural processes such as global displacement and other globalization processes aimed at creation of links between different social fragments and acquisition of unanimity among people. 103 A.D. Ursul. Information globalitics Such analysis became possible only as a result of implementation of information and evolutionary approaches in globalistics because of the surface aspects of globalization and other global processes. Such way of knowledge attainment results from the fact that “surface” phenomena appears firstly and only after that initial in-depth analysis takes place etc. On the basis mentioned above the reason behind the fact information approach was out of the globalistics’ priority list for decades becomes clear. More to that it is understandable that information globalistics could have become a full-fledged scientific area of study just after implementation of evolutionary approach into global studies. Thereby, we could say that information approach forms information globalistics as a principally new area of global studies and puts emphasis on information aspect of global processes and systems. Information problem as well as information globalization are being considered from the global point of view within this area of study (Fig. 10): Information globalistics Global information probal Informative globalization Socio‐natural and natural global information processes Figure 10. Object field of information globalistics Despite the fundamental meaning of information approach suggested above, it is clear information globalization, global information problem and information society will be now developing on a global scale only. Information globalistics will acquire its genuine meaning after a crucial role of information as a general matter feature of global processes will be revealed. There upon, we may assume that information approach, which implies information as a science category in its wide and attributive meaning, should be added to a list of significant scientific approaches used in globalistics. Moreover, a new area of study should appear in the structure of the globalistics’ object field. This area could be called information globalistics, which is aimed at comprehension of the root factors of global development and might increase its role in globalistics as well as in the system of scientific knowledge in general in the nearest future. I.V. Ilyin1, A.D. Ursul2 Futuro-globalistics: delineation of III millennium global world At present the interest towards the future global world gaining its shape is considerably growing, which is connected not only with its inevitable implementation and uncertainty, but also with multiplication and growth of global risks, calls and dangers. Global 1 2 Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Professor. Academician, Professor of Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU. 104 New Branches of Globalistics mankind progress is more and more followed by negative consequences, which are in addition materialized in crisis and even catastrophic tendencies, and the latter threatens our civilization and its survival already in current century. In the 20th century (at least in its first half) human progress was triumphal procession on the way of the latter. But now, at the beginning of the 21st century, many scientists believe, the civilization is on the verge of its collapse and selfdestruction and moreover provokes the annihilation of every living thing – the omnicide. The 21st century is becoming a special and critical one in the development and even existence of our civilization, as the fate of humankind and survival and preservation of the environment is decided in this century. There can be a possibility of the outbreak of social and ecological catastrophe on the global scale, if the world community doesn’t take necessary steps to change the trajectory of global development (fig. 1). Figure 1. A stability estimate for global development (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Futuro-globalistics: delineation of III millennium global world 105 In traditional historical approach to global studies the attention was mainly drawn to the past and to some extent to the present, while the future was practically wiped out of the research field and left for fantasy writers. According to K. Popper, “there are no scientific or other rational methods to predict the course of history”. Moreover, there are other outstanding scientists as academicians Moiseev N.N and Oiserman T.I. who suggest that “the future of humankind is in essence beyond the grasp of the mind”. However, there are points of view, according to which the future is to some extent possible to examine and perceive. The former can be seen in the book “Future shock” by A. Toffler (1970) and in various well-known works by S. Lem and A. Clark and other famous futurologists and fantasy writers. Planning practice, which exists in many countries (including Russia), creating their official “forecast documents”, is an evidence for positive attitude towards forecasts and scenarios of the future, although the stated above documents are normative (prescriptive) and are aimed at strategic planning of wished future. In the area of global research and other forecasts and scenarios there are well-known reports of the Club of Rome and the UN experts’ publications, including “Our common future”, the report of the International UN Commission on Environment and Development and other reports if this organization. Owing to this report it became conceivable that research and strategic planning of the future on the global scale requires more attention. Moreover, it is apparent, there must be found another model of development, which would guarantee safety for the mankind and its existence and preservation of the biosphere. There exists and actively develops a large area of scientific search named “the studies of the future”, which is defined as interdisciplinary course of modern science, containing all the spheres, connected with cognition of the future, including prognostics and futurology. Futuro-globalistics, which nowadays only starts to develop, can be related to this way of research and has a common sphere with studies of the future (fig. 2). Futuro-globalistics, as part of globalistics, investigates the future of global processes and systems, and such scientific search can be put into effect via evolutionary approach and other approaches and methods connected with the latter. The result of futuro-globalistics research is various scenarios and forecasts related to global processes and evolution of the civilization. Globalisitcs Futuro‐ globalisitcs Studies of the future Figure 2. Interconnection of globalistics and studies of the future In contrast to paleo-globalistics and neo-globalistics the research of global processes future cannot be to the same extent reliable and well-reasoned. Foresight and forecasting of global processes has a probabilistic nature. Moreover some impossibility of their forecasting stems from nonlinear nature, uncertainty and bifurcational form of evolutionary processes (Fig. 3). 106 New Branches of Globalistics Figure 3. Non-linear bifurcational character of global processes forecast (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Futuro-globalistics: delineation of III millennium global world 107 However, it is unlikely that one must completely set off linear and nonlinear nature, certainty and uncertainty. Linearity and nonlinearity are the two possible approaches to studies of the global future, and both points must be taken into account. According to some common principles of global evolution, it is a linear process, and hence extrapolation of already revealed tendencies is justified. This aspect is related to world natural and social evolution, but to the extent to which it coincides with the way of global evolution. The future of the global world cannot be examined to the same extent as the past and the present, as there cannot be used such categories of epistemology as the verity, the fact, the practice and others, which are used during studies of the past and the present. There should be implemented a special principle of “temporal research” in any sphere of scientific knowledge, and especially in global studies. This principle connects not only the past and the present, but also the future in one single systematic global temporal whole. Henceforth, the interconnection of tempo-worlds is formed as a united temporal system, where not only linear bonds are prominent, but also nonlinear time periods (tempo-worlds) interaction (Fig. 4). Figure 4. The notion “tempo-world” (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) The temporal whole presupposes, that what we call time connects in single system all three moduses (tempo-worlds, periods) – the past, the present and the future. These tempoworlds (time moduses) are interconnected, and the authenticity of existence is defined not only by what is happening now, but also by what happened in the past and by the orientation to the future. Furthermore the past exists in the present, and aspiration in the present for the future gives integrity to human being and development of other global processes (Fig. 5). Division into three time moduses is fully relative and in real life time turns out to be integral and non-dividable, as tempo-worlds (moduses) not only follow each other, but also mutually influence each other. Time span, going from the present to other tempo-worlds, converts the reality to what is named “what is going on”, and the name itself transforms the present from the temporal state to the temporal process, which is no longer instant (e.g. nanosecond), but obtains a certain duration. What is going on concentrates its attention on the present as on a durable in a certain time span process. However it doesn’t exclude the past and the future, it connects them via the present, “concentrates” them round itself. Furthermore there can be chosen other types of “bonds of tempo-worlds”, when the accent is put not on the present, but on other tempoworlds (time moduses). If this accent is put on the past, we deal with addressing backwards, retrospection, in the scientific sphere – with widespread or common understanding of historical approach. The transition of attention on the future can be defined as “futurization” and is connected with research or aspiration of the future, which one want to see free from negative features of past and present. 108 New Branches of Globalistics Figure 5. The principle of temporal integrity (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) During the analysis of the role and the correlation of the three tempo-worlds (the past, the present and the future) in the majority of spheres of social activity in contemporary unsustainable development, including global processes, their precise asymmetry or inequality attracts one’s attention. This inequality consists in the following: during the process of cognition major attention is paid to the past and the present, while the future takes a back seat. Apparently, depending on the type of activity the proportion in respect of the tempo-worlds (that is the past, the present and the future) varies. But the fact that not much attention is dedicated to the future even in the area of scientific activity remains ostensible. Futurological approach is the most constructive, due to the fact that only in the future it is possible to realize something, which was already impossible to realize in the former tempo-worlds. And even the realists, who state, that they pay major attention to the present, work most effectively, if they think and act anticipatory according to the principle of temporal integrity. It is important to base the findings on all the three time periods in global studies. It is a striking feature of evolutionary globalistics as discipline interconnecting paleo-, neo- and futuro-globalistics (Fig 6). I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Futuro-globalistics: delineation of III millennium global world 109 Figure 6. Temporal parts of evolutionary globalistics (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) The creation of the strategy of sustainable development on the global scale is at present moment an optimistic aspiration of the world community, which expresses the formation of global consciousness, aimed at preservation of the civilization and the biosphere. On the basis of descriptive forecasts about potential annihilation of the humankind as a result of global catastrophe a normative forecast (scenario) related to the survival of humanity via transition to social and environmental sustainable development on the world scale is created. This scenario relates to the entire world both by its essence and by acceptance by all the world community in the network of the UN and presupposes a system of coordinated action, aimed at reconsideration of market-and-economy model domination, formed after the Neolithic revolution. Sustainable development is a more systematic form of development, which unites economic social and ecological balanced development, aimed at preservation of the civilization and the biosphere, in one integral whole (Fig 7). Figure 7. Major systematic parts of sustainable development It is necessary to reconsider many “Neolithic principles” of society-nature interaction, which would contribute to the solution of major global social and environmental contradiction. The essence of the latter is as follows: global wants of the world community, and moreover of future generations, cannot be satisfied by means of the biosphere (especially it regards natural resources and ecological conditions). 110 New Branches of Globalistics It became obvious, that for humankind survival it is vital to fully transform the process of social and economic development. However in order to do so it is necessary to revise human values, aims and guidelines, formed in contemporary model of unsustainable development. In 1992 on the UN Conference on Environment and Sustainable Development (UNCESD) there was named the form of development, according to which our civilization still continues to develop. On UNCESD the definition of this notion, which was earlier given in the book “Our common future”, was widely used: “sustainable development is such type of development, which satisfies the contemporary needs, but doesn’t put at risk the ability of future generations to satisfy their own needs”. This definition states a row of principles, especially of social justice and security, not only for present, but also for future generations, which have to inherit acceptable ecological conditions and accessible natural resources (fig. 8). Figure 8. Main principles of the Sustainable Development (picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin) I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Futuro-globalistics: delineation of III millennium global world 111 That is why above mentioned definition was criticized for its vagueness and even anthropocentrism, as the definition of sustainable development is to take into account all the aspects of environmental preservation. Henceforth, it is vital to remove even tiny references to humankind and biosphere degradation out of all existing definitions as default. It is to some extent done in the Concept of transition towards sustainable development of Russia, which was sanctioned in 1996. To state briefly, sustainable development is preservation of the humankind and the biosphere, and their co-evolution on the world scale (Fig. 9). Humankind preservation Sustainable development Biosphere preservation Figure 9. Co-evolution of biosphere and humankind Therefore sustainable development in our perception is a future form of global and coevolutionary and even cosmic interaction of nature and society, which ensures their mutual existence. It is evident, that in such futurological and normative understanding sustainable development is first-priority process in the subject field of futuro-globalistics, which only starts to fill in. Another possible global process is to become noospheregenesis, which is scrutinized in another part (“Nooglobalizm and nooglobalisitcs”). Commitment to the idea of transition to sustainable development is confirmed and being detailed in the following official UN documents. Consequently it is appropriate to pay attention to the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), which took place in Johannesburg in 2002. There was approved a Plan of decision implementation on top level. In contrast to analogical document of UNCESD – the agenda of the 21st century – this one for the first time sets time periods of world community movements towards sustainable development. It can be derived from official UN documents that realization of sustainable development program was supposed to be started from the decade of 2005–2014. Exactly at this period of time world states-members of the UN had to prepare conceptually, strategically and in terms of organization and management for this new civilization strategy. Mainly it was (is) about elaboration of official forecast documents (concepts, plans of action, strategies, programs, authorities, councils etc.) in order to start the realization of brand new track (form) of intertwined social economic and ecological development. What makes UNCESD, WSSD and other UN documents related to sustainable development similar is the fact that all of them declare a sustainable development model – or variety of models – on political level, but details of this model are too vague. Our intuition and common sense make us to some extent think that there is no longer possible to follow the former track of our civilization development, otherwise our future will be put at risk. Transition towards new model of global development – sustainable development – was caused mainly by ecological and global security issues. Model of sustainable 112 New Branches of Globalistics development exists so far only in the form of scientific concepts, political declarations, UN recommendations documents and many official national documents and standard acts. However all the countries are in different social economic and ecological conditions. Therefore unique features are being added to worldwide transition towards sustainable development. In Russia, for example, the strategic prospective embraces the question of combination of worldwide transition towards sustainable development and innovative and modernization development, reflecting present stage of our country’s progress (including democratic reforms and spreading of market relations). The model of unsustainable development paid much attention to independent “economized” individual, while the model of sustainable development is a strategy of the mankind survival. It became apparent, that not only people’s rights and freedoms but their life cannot be safeguarded with degradation and destruction of homo sapiens environment. Henceforth, new model (strategy) of civilization development turns out to be more humane, socially and ecologically just in terms of its strategic and political orientation and prospective. So far as the model of unsustainable development cannot satisfy essential needs of both present and future generations, this model presupposes rather fast and dramatic exodus for wasteful market-focused civilization development. This tragic end of “homo economicus”, as meant above, is intertwined with anthropological and ecological catastrophe, especially with environmental and natural resources depletion. Henceforth satisfaction of future generations needs corresponds with yet not existing, but forecasted in future anticipative necessity of survival and temporal continuation of existence. The majority of planet inhabitants does not realize this need of “here and now”, if to look at mankind development in terms of market- and economy-focused element. However such need of the kind extension occurs, if one realizes the guarantee of survival importance and temporal continuation of homo-sapiens existence for future undefined period. Consequently there occurs a necessity for appearance, existence and development of future generations, which could last for indefinitely long. This need is beyond momentary “market horizon” of mind, it is directed towards far humane sustainable future and its integral part is virtual and strategic characteristics. This anticipative deliberate need will influence present generations’ needs, transforming them into more rational future-oriented. There exists an apparent contradiction between evidently excessive needs of certain part of our generations and opportunities of even vital needs satisfaction by future generations. Present generations needs, especially pathologic and unreasonable, growth leads to considerable slash in means of essential needs in natural resources and ecological conditions satisfaction of future generations, which can lead to humankind annihilation as a result of world anthropologic and ecological catastrophe. Such rather pessimistic prospective demanded to change contemporary model of civilization development (e.g. model of unsustainable development) with sole purpose of anticipative need in temporal “humanism continuation” realization. As far as this need is to some extent perceived, it represents human long-run strategic interest, which is to be of paramount importance during transition towards sustainable future. There is only one way to vanquish a contradiction between present and future mankind needs – preservation of needs satisfaction possibility by future generations via reasonable limitation of needs, except vital ones, satisfaction by present generations. In conditions of non-renewable resources existence present generations live at the expense of future ones, depleting the environment, squandering fossil fuels, creating worse ecological conditions, which is apparently anti-humane, if to take into account global and strategic prospective of humankind existence. I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Futuro-globalistics: delineation of III millennium global world 113 The process of anticipative needs satisfaction, which are beyond short-run horizons, can be reasonably named as futurization of need (and interests). Transition towards sustainable development presupposes integral long-run system of measures, which will carry out the process of futurization and, henceforth, rationalization and “strategic humanization” of needs. And the latter presupposes an eventual refusal of contemporary consumer society and transition to more rational needs (or co-evolutionary and reasonable needs) satisfaction, which presupposes transition towards sustainable development. In this case temporal optimization of conditions for present and future generations will take part. This will become apparent, in the first place, via futurization and rationalization of humankind needs, which is supposed to be examined as a whole not only in spatial terms, but also in temporal terms. It is unlikely, that the goal of globalization is achievement of spatial integrity in unsustainable development model, which will be sooner or later demolished by anthropological and ecological catastrophe. Apparently, humankind history cannot be limited by the past and the present. Formation of global “sustainable development consciousness” (or noosphere consciousness in prospect) will be anticipative, as global sustainable development does not exist yet, and, moreover, as it is oriented to prognostic realization of future model of development, model of sustainable development. And, on the other hand it is connected with present globalization processes and other global processes, with are vital to be re-oriented with the purpose of sustainable noosphere civilization creation. L.E. Grinin1, A.V. Korotayev2 Political Globalistics The globalizing world needs more and more the globalizing social knowledge. That is why we experience such an acute deficit in productive metaconcepts and macromethods that could make it possible for us to study the development of both polities and suprapolitical systems in the global temporal and spatial perspective, that would provide us with a reliable methodology of the connection between the micro- and macrolevels, between the local and the global, with an instrument allowing to compare political systems in an objective way using various parameters, to detect macrotrends within the enormous historical diversity, to identify causal hierarchies affecting processes of political globalization, and so on. In recent years Political Globalistics in Russia has been developing within a number of important dimensions. The world-system perspective was among them. The notion of “world-system” can be defined as a maximum set of human societies that has systemic characteristics, a maximum set of societies that are significantly connected among themselves in direct and indirect ways. It is important that there are no significant contacts and interactions be yond border soft his set, there are no significant contacts and interactions between societies belonging to the given worldsystem and societies belonging to the other world-systems. 1 Senior Research Fellow of the Volgograd Center for Social Research, Co-editor of “Social Evolution & History” Journal, Director of “Uchitel” Publishing House Dean. 2 Professor and Chair, Department of Modern Asian and African Studies. 114 New Branches of Globalistics Figure 1. Covers of some Russian books dedicated to the World System development Figure 2. The Afro-Eurasian world-system in the 11th century CE (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Silk_route.jpg) L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotayev. Political Globalistics 115 Within this framework “world-system” can be characterized as a supersystem that unites many systems of lower orders, such as states, stateless societies, various social, spatialcultural, and political entities – civilizations, alliances, confederations, etc. In general, the larger the size and internal diversity of a social system is, the more internal links it has, the more complex those links are, and (ceterum paribus) the higher the speed of its development is. Due to this we observe different speeds of development in societies belonging to worldsystems and isolates, in the main (“central”, Afro-Eurasian) world-system and peripheral (e.g. American) world-systems (prior to their incorporation into the World System). A formal criterion that allows us to regard the Afro-Eurasian world-system as the World System is the point that throughout its whole history this world-system encompassed more territory and population than any other contemporary world-system; what is more, for the last few millennia it encompassed more than a half of the world population and this appears to be a sufficient criterion permitting to denote this world-system as the World System. Another point that appears of no less importance is that the modern World System that actually encompasses the whole world was formed as a result of the expansion of that very system which is denoted as the World System (and that up to the late 15th century was identical with the Afro-Eurasian world-system). Figure 3. The maximum extent of the Hittite Empire ca. 1300 BC (red), bordering on the Egyptian Empire (green). The Hittite Old Kingdom is shown in darker red (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hittite_Empire.png) Today it is clear that it is very productive to search for the origins of political globalization in the depths of history. It is no coincidence at all that the growing interest in globalization has promoted interest in the trend often denoted as ‘historical dimension of globalization’. Russian analysts of political globalistics have demonstrated that the start of globalization may be connected with the early phases of the Agrarian Revolution, when one could observe the Afroeurasian world-system (= the World System) expansion and the formation of rather effective informational, cultural, and even trade links between its parts. They have also found out that for the period of the World System formation the most important role was played by information links (and especially by the diffusion of innovations). The presence of the pan-World System information network secured the 116 New Branches of Globalistics diffusion of innovations throughout it. In general, the processes of innovation generation and diffusion played an immensely important role during the whole history of the World System. The world-system approach makes it possible to see that the roots of what is called Geopolitics now are hidden deep in history. For example, the start of the modern global cycles of political hegemony may be traced at least to the 2nd millennium BCE (i.e. to the hegemonic struggles between Assyria, Mitanni, the Hittite Empire, Egypt, and other Near Eastern states). This hegemony struggle in the 2nd millennium BCE World System core moved to a new level with the clash between the New Kingdom of Egypt and the Hittite Empire. Russian political globalistics analysts have found out that there is a rather tight correlation between the start of the epoch of the ancient World System hegemonic struggles and the transition to a new evolutionary level of the statehood – to the developed statehood. These Russian analysts have described the total process of genesis and transformation of the world political structures. They have developed a three-stage model of the macroevolution of the World System statehood (early – developed – mature state) that describes the main features of political macroevolution better than the two-stage model proposed by Claessen and Skalník (early – mature state). We are dealing with the following sequence of three stages: MATURE STATES DEVELOPED STATES EARLY STATES Figure 4. The 3-phase model of the global political development This model has been used as a basis for the analysis of changes in the global development of political structures from the pre-state polities and the most primitive early states (and their analogues) till the modern supercomplex states. The power emerges together with human society. However, the political power was institutionalized within human societies much later. In the hunter-gatherer societies this institutionalization was still absent. Only with the emergence of agriculture during the very prolonged late archaic and early civilization periods one could observe the separation of political sphere from society including the beginning of specialization in the field of political management which in fact can be considered as the origin of politogenesis. The first medium complexity polities 117 L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotayev. Political Globalistics (chiefdoms and their analogues) emerged. The transition to statehood appears to be one of the most crucial changes in the human historical development. Russian political globalistics analysts present a new approach to the causes and models of the emergence of the state. The matter is that within the politogenesis process in addition to the state formation one could also observe the formation of polities which were comparable with the early state in their complexity level and performed functions, but still lacked a number of early states attributes. Such polities are denoted as early state analogues. Thus, Russian analysts describe two models of state formation at global scale: ‘vertical’ (when the state emerges from pristine prestate polities) and ‘horizontal’ (when the state emerges from an early state analogue which is equal to the state with respect to its volume and functions). ‘HORIZONTAL HORIZONTAL’’ MODEL Small Pre-state Polities Early State Analogues States ‘VERTICAL’ VERTICAL’ MODEL Primitive States Small Pre-state Polities Figure 5. Two main models of the state formation process The following global political evolution is connected with the above-mentioned sequence: early – developed – mature states. Early states are insufficiently centralized states with underdeveloped bureaucracy, their flourishing took place in the period of Ancient World history and the most part of the Middle Ages. The developed states are centralized estatecorporative and bureaucratic states of the Late Antiquity, Middle Ages and Early Modern Age. The mature states are the states of the industrial epoch with rational type of law and government where the classes of industrial society and modern type of nation have formed. Russian global analysts ascertain the strong correlation between global trends of political, historical and other global trends (technological, demographic, urbanization etc.). A very important conclusion has been made by Russian analysts with respect to modern transformations of statehood. There has been found out that when in the 1950-s and 1960-s the USA and a number of European states started their transformation into welfare states/mass consumption societies this implied the process of changing of the mature class state into the mature social state. Later, when in the 1980-s and 1990-s globalization became much stronger, the mature social state began to develop into something different. 118 New Branches of Globalistics 1 000 000 100 000 10 000 1 000 100 urban population 10 1 -4000 -3500 -3000 -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 developed states' territory -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Figure 6. Dynamics of World Urban Population (thousands) and the Size of the Territory Controlled by the Developed and Mature States (thousands km2), till 1900 CE (logarithmic scale) This leads Russian analysts to an analysis of interesting problem tightly connected with the globalization issue: why states lose their sovereignty and why they voluntary renounce their sovereign prerogatives. Figure 7. An issue of the Russian “Journal of Globalization Studies” with a discussion of the “globalization and state sovereignty” problem The process of globalization undoubtedly contributes to the change and reduction of the scope of state sovereign powers. Much has been said about the ways globalization L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotayev. Political Globalistics 119 strengthens the factors that objectively weaken the countries' sovereignty. The list of threats to state sovereignty often includes global financial flows, multinational corporations, global media empires, the Internet etc. and, of course, international interventions, as we have recently seen in Libya. At the same time (note that this point is debated surprisingly little and occasionally), since the end of World War II, increasingly more states have been willingly and consciously limiting their sovereign rights, including the rights: to determine the size of taxes and duties, to emit money, the right of supreme jurisdiction, the right to use capital punishment, to proclaim certain political freedoms or to limit them, to establish fundamental election rules etc. So there is no doubt that today the completely free and independent countries' sovereignty has become much smaller. And what is extremely important, many countries quite often give away a part of their sovereign powers voluntarily indeed. In opinion of Russian analysts, the factor of voluntariness in reducing one's own authority is, no doubt, the most important one in understanding the future of the state. What stands behind voluntary self-limitation of sovereignty prerogatives? There are several reasons for such voluntariness and ‘altruism’, including the fact that such a restriction becomes profitable, as in return the countries expect to gain quite real advantages especially as members of regional and interregional unions. Besides, the world public opinion must be pointed out as an important cause of sovereignty reduction: the wider is the circle of countries voluntarily limiting their sovereignty, the more inferior appear those states, which do not make such restrictions. However, it is worth noting that the voluntary reduction of sovereignty is more characteristic of Western countries. The transformation of sovereignty in countries with different cultural traditions proceeds with more difficulty and also is closely connected with the level of economic development. Nevertheless, the transformation of sovereignty proceeds in this or that way almost in all countries. STATE SOVEREIGNTY TRANSFORMATION FACTORS Global threats and factors Joining supranational alliances Global financial flows Multinational company Internet Voluntary reduction of sovereign power Global media corporations Participating in the international organizations Desire to gain extra prestige and benefit Figure 8. State sovereignty transformation factors 120 New Branches of Globalistics Much attention has been also devoted by Russian political scientists to the analysis of probable future political transformations in relation to the modern financial-economic crisis and to the forecasts of socioeconomic and political development of the world in the forthcoming decades. Within the framework of the analyses of the World System future development Russian political globalistics analysts attempt to answer the following questions: What are the implications of the economic weakening of the USA as the World System center? Will the future World System have a leader? Will it experience a global governance deficit? Will the world fragmentation increase? They analyze some crucial events of the present, which could be regarded as precursors of forthcoming fundamental changes. They analyze some crucial events of the present, which could be regarded as precursors of forthcoming fundamental changes (see below). They also consider some global scenarios of the World System's near future. During the struggle for a place in organizing and operating the new world order, an epoch of new coalitions will come, which will outline the contours of a new political landscape for a considerably long period. Probably, for some time the mobility of partnerships within the World System will increase, the arising coalitions may turn out to be chimerical, ephemeral, or fantastic. In the course of search for most stable, advantageous, and adequate organizational supranational forms various and even rapidly changing intermediary forms may occur, where the players of the world and regional political arenas will search for most advantageous and convenient blocks and agreements. However, some of new unions and associations may eventually turn from temporary into constant ones and take specific supranational forms. So a new world order gradually will be established. These will be such changes that could prepare the world to the transition to a new phase of globalization (it will be a great success if this is the phase of sustainable globalization) whose contours are not clear yet. The beginning of the political world reconfiguration and of the “new coalition” epoch GLOBAL CRISIS Political globalization lag Economic and financial crisis Figure 9. Global crisis and global political transformations The turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World confirm that the world will encounter very serious changes in the forthcoming decades. L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotayev. Political Globalistics 121 Figure 10. The "Day of Revolt" on 25 January 2011 in Cairo (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Day_of_Anger_marchers_in_street.jpg) Forms of their realization may be rather different – ranging from slow and unapparent to sharp and sudden. When considering the Arab revolutions one may indicate a whole set of their factors – both objective and subjective, local and global, logical and random. On the one hand, it is clear that a certain role has been played here by the global crisis. Note, that it contributed significantly to the synchronization of political upheavals in different countries. A special role here was played by “agflation” (a global steep rise of the agricultural commodity prices [see Fig. 9]): Ряд1; Jan‐08; Ряд1; Apr‐08; Ряд1; Oct‐07; Ряд1;Ряд1; Feb‐11; 368 374,3740617 Jan‐11; 366,9187921 Ряд1; Jul‐08; 352,5585601 339,75 Ряд1; Sep‐10; 319,8 332,4280407 Ряд1; Dec‐10; Ряд1; Nov‐10; 291,5 Ряд1; Oct‐10; 290 303,75 Ряд1; Aug‐10; Ряд1; May‐09; Ряд1; Jun‐09; 269,5 Ряд1; Jul‐07; Ряд1; Feb‐09; Ряд1; Oct‐08; Ряд1; Jan‐09; 256,4 267,75 Ряд1; Oct‐06; Ряд1; Mar‐09; 245,5 260,8 Ряд1; Apr‐09; 241,5 Ряд1; Dec‐09; Ряд1; Jul‐06; 250,7936337 Ряд1; Aug‐09; Ряд1; Jul‐09; 233,2 Ряд1; Nov‐09; 227,5 Ряд1; Apr‐07; 240,75 240,4527037 Ряд1; Jan‐07; Ряд1; Sep‐09; Ряд1; Jan‐10; 214,8 229,46504 Ряд1; May‐10; Ряд1; Apr‐06; Ряд1; Oct‐09; 208,8 Ряд1; Feb‐10; 207 Ряд1; Mar‐10; 205,5 221,75 Ряд1; Jul‐10; 204,6 Ряд1; Oct‐05; 219,0136642 217,75 Ряд1; Apr‐10; 200,2 Ряд1; Jun‐10; Ряд1; Jan‐06; 208,6107357 206,2543843 Ряд1; Jan‐05; 200,75 195,75 195,1248053 Ряд1; Jul‐05; Ряд1; Apr‐05; 187,4622937 182,75 180,8542415 171,5565375 160,6995185 157,3597565 Figure 11. World wheat prices, $/ton, 2005–2011 An especially important role was played by the high proportion of the youth in the population (the so-called “youth bulge”) and a sharp growth of the young population in recent years. Consider, for example, the dynamics of the number of Egyptians aged 20–24 in recent years (see Fig. 12): 122 New Branches of Globalistics Figure 12. The Number of Egyptian youths aged 20–24, thousands, with forecast till 2015 Notwithstanding all the understandable factors (including those that have not been mentioned above), it is difficult not to notice that those factors do not appear to be sufficient to account completely for a striking synchronicity of the respective sociopolitical explosions. Note that the level of poverty in almost all the countries affected by the Arab Spring is not really high for the Third World. It is clear that we are dealing here with the effect of the revolutionary influence of some countries on some other countries (especially, the ones that are similar in their languages and cultural characteristics), which was sometimes already observed in history. For example, this effect was observed as regards 1848–1849 revolutions in Europe, national liberation revolutions in Latin America in 1825–1830, revolutions in Communist countries in Europe in 1989–1991. However, what is especially important is that here we are dealing with the effect of the start of the global reconfiguration. The respective changes will take place in various (and sometimes unexpected) forms that can involve whole sets of social systems. Today we observe the weakening of the economic role of the USA as the World System center; in a more general sense we observe the weakening of the World System core countries as a whole. That is why there is no doubt that sooner or later (in any case in the foreseeable future) the USA's status as the World System's leader will change and its role will diminish. American analysts are worried by this more than anyone else. The current crisis is an important step toward the present leader's weakening. Russian global political scientists proceed from the idea that former priorities and foundations of the world economic order which were based on making profits for the USA will sooner or later start to transform into a new order. In the foreseeable future such a transformation will constitute collisions of relations between USA national interests, on the one hand, and the general world interests, on the other. However, such a collision will lead to very important transformations, which, unfortunately, tend to be ignored. There is a general universal tendency to believe that in the proximate future, the USA's current tenuous leading position will be occupied by the European Union, China, or some other country (from India and to Russia). But to model the World System transformations mostly with regard to a change of its leader is a serious mistake. Today we are dealing not only with a crisis in the World System or even with a crisis of the World System core; rather, we are dealing with a crisis of the established model of its structure which is based on having a leader who concentrates many aspects of leadership (political, military, financial, monetary, economic, technological, ideological, and so on). One should point out that the USA world leading position is unique in history. The simple change of the World System leader is rather unlikely already due to the fact that no L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotayev. Political Globalistics 123 country will be able to occupy the position of leadership in a way that is equivalent to the one held by the USA today, as no country will be able to monopolize so many leadership functions. Only as a result of this factor (although there is a number of other important factors), the loss of the leading role by the USA will mean a radical transformation of the World System as a whole. Thus, according to opinions of Russian global futurologists it is evident that a place similar to the one held by the present-day USA cannot be occupied in future, neither by another state nor by an alliance of states. The functions of the World System leader can only be performed by a country that achieves dominance in ideas or ideology, an economic system, and military power. Figure 13. USA military spending in comparison with other states However, in the foreseeable future, there will be no country (nor even an alliance of countries) that will be able to concentrate several aspects of the World System leadership. It is often proposed that China will replace the USA as the new World System leader. Some Russian political scientists suppose that this function is not likely to be performed by China even if China eventually surpasses the USA with respect to its GDP volume. Those who suggest China as such a leader do not appear to take into consideration that its economy is not adequately innovative, that it does not develop on the basis of technologies of tomorrow (and, to some extent, even of today). In addition, the Chinese economy is too much exportoriented. The economic center of the World System cannot be based on the exporting of noninnovative (and even not sufficiently highly technological) products. Besides, the Chinese model is very resource-intensive which makes it dependent on the opportunities of extending world raw materials production and their prices. And what is more important, the economic growth in China is based to a great extent on inadequate technological basis. 124 New Branches of Globalistics In order to perform the World System center role, the Chinese economy should become, on the one hand, innovative and highly technological (which is hardly compatible with heavy industry, or conveyor industries), and ecologically advanced – on the other hand. However, China does not possess necessary conditions for this. Figure 14. Shanghai World Financial Center (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ File:0352_20090626_Shanghai.jpg) Figure 15. Dismantling Computers in South China The Chinese economy, with all its achievements, remains generally extensive and, based on the consumption of excessive numbers of various resources and funds and with respect to the attendant investment gain, will become more and more ineffective. The transition to such an economic model that is focused on internal consumption and technological innovation is further complicated by the following points: а) the growth of internal consumption implies the acceleration of the growth of the living standards and Chinese labor costs (that are growing anyway); b) the growth of the labor costs is not likely to be compensated by an adequate increase in labor productivity (as this happened before); c) consequently, the costs of exported commodities may increase, their competitiveness may fall, while the attractiveness of investments in China will then decrease. Some Russian global analists believe that it will be impossible to reconstruct the Chinese development model and GDP growth rates will slow down soon. As a result, the same processes may start that were observed in Japan after 1975. In whole Russian global political scientists forecast that the nearest one or two decades will be quite turbulent. They regard the events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World as a start of the global reconfiguration. They also forecast transition to the new world order trough the period named by them as “the epoch of new coalitions”, which will outline the contours of a new political landscape for a considerably long period. These will be such changes that could prepare the world to the transition to a new phase of globalization (it will be a great success if this is the phase of sustainable globalization) whose contours are not clear yet. L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotayev. Political Globalistics 125 Thus, the future World System will not be able to possess the same structure as the current one with an equally strong center. We are on the eve of a very complex, contradictory, and long process of the formation of a new world order; the state will not disappear within it, but its features and functions will change significantly. Literature Abylgaziev I.I., IlyinI.V., Kefeli I.F. 2010. (Eds.). Global Geopolitics. Moscow: Moscow University Press (in Russia). Chumakov A.N. 2010. Philosophy of Globalization. M.: MAKS Press. Grinin L.E. 2008a. Globalization and Sovereignty: Why do States Abandon Their Sovereign Prerogatives? Age of Globalization 1: 22–32. Grinin L. 2008b.Early State, Developed State, Mature State: TheStatehood Evolutionary Sequence. Social Evolution & History 7/1: 67–81. Grinin L. 2009. The Pathways of Politogenesis and Models of the Early State Formation. Social Evolution & History 8/1: 92–132. Grinin L.E. 2011a.The Evolution of Statehood. From Early State to Global Society.Saarbrücken: Lambert Academic Publishing. Grinin L. E. 2011b. The Chinese Joker in the World Pack. Journal of Globalization Studies2(2): 7–24. Grinin L.E. 2012. Macrohistory and Globalization. Volgograd: Uchitel. Grinin L.E., Korotayev A. V. 2006. Political Development of the World System: A Formal Quantitative Analysis. History and Mathematics. Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies / Ed. by P. Turchin, L. Grinin, A. Korotayev, V. de Munk, p. 115–153. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS. Grinin L.E., Korotayev A. V.2009a. The Epoch of the Initial Politogenesis. Social Evolution & History 8/1: 52–91. Grinin L.E., Korotayev A. V.2009b. Social Macroevolution: Growth of the World System Integrity and a System of Phase Transitions. World Futures65/7, October: 477–506. URL: http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~db=all~content=t713393663~tab=issueslist~branches=65 – v65. Grinin L.E., Korotayev A. V. 2010a.Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations. 1. The Global Financial System: Pros and Cons. Journal of Globalization Studies 1/1: 70–89. Grinin L.E., Korotayev A. V. 2010b.Will the Global Crisis Lead to Global Transformations? 2. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions. Journal of Globalization Studies 1/2: 166–183. Grinin L.E., Korotayev A. V. 2011a. The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future. World Futures 67(8): 531–563. Korotayev A. 2006b. The World System Urbanization Dynamics: A Quantitative Analysis. History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies / Ed. by P. Turchin, L. Grinin, A. Korotayev, V. C. de Munck, p. 44–62. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS. Korotayev A. 2007. Compact Mathematical Models of World System Development, and How they can Help us to Clarify our Understanding of Globalization Processes. Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling Global Change / Ed. by G. Modelski, T. Devezas, W.R. Thompson, p. 133–160. London: Routledge. Korotayev A., Grinin L. 2006. Urbanization and Political Development of the World System: A Comparative Quantitative Analysis. History and Mathematics. Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies / Ed. by P. Turchin, L. Grinin, A. Korotayev, V. de Munck, . 115–153. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS. Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. 2006a.Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS. Kosov Y. 2006. Political Globalistics. Moscow: Gardariki (in Russian). Mazour I.I., Chumakov A.N., Gay W.C. 2003. (Eds.).Global Studies Encyclopedia. Moscow: Raduga. GLOBALIZATION STUDIES I.V. Ilyin1, A.D. Ursul 2 Globalization in the context of the transition to socionatural sustainable development The development of our civilization is presently characterized by giving a high level of priority to the tendencies of globalization. This global process presents itself as a stabile tendency for the formation of a single humankind and as a leading pattern for its modern evolution. Globalization is presented in forms of strengthening of the interrelations between separate fragments and societies of the human race, primarily – economic, financial, political, sociocultural, informational, ecological, and other interrelations, the universalization and transnationalization of a number of systems and structures of the human civilization and culture (Fig. 1). Figure 1. The variety of directions of globalization (processes of globalization). Picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin Globalization serves not only as one of the global processes, but also as the most important area of global development, evolution and co evolution of these processes. In turn, a part of globalization as a global process and a form of global development includes a variety of trend sand directions of globalization, which we will refer to as the globalization processes as trends of development of globalization in the evolutionary perspective. Globalization, thus, 1 2 Dean of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Professor. Academician, Professor of Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU. I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Globalization in the context of the transition to socionatural sustainable development 127 appears as a global phenomenon and serves as an object of study of globalism in its evolutionary aspect. Globalization is focused on the formation of a single planetary integrity of civilization, a single global world, social and socio-natural. Although the premise and the individual characteristics of globalization actually existed throughout human history, the awareness of this process became a reality in the last two-three decades. It was at this time when the turn from nation-state forms of social existence to a global community, with new capabilities of survival of humankind, became evident. And despite the difficulties of this process, despite its controversies, its scale keeps growing ever faster. The dissemination of humanity on the planet as a global settlement and the establishment of ties between different peoples (tribes, races, nations, etc.) can be traced throughout the entire recorded history of mankind, and this period is not considered to globalization-it was only its background. However, it is possible that the concept of globalization will expand in a temporal perspective, going outside, it would seem, its accepted way of understanding. It is possible that there will be a narrow and a broad understanding of this global process, which will also let us trace its roots, depending on the accepted meaning of the concept. The difference between globalization and other global phenomena, inherent to the entire history of humanity, its evolution and the processes of integration, is that globalization deals not only with the convergence of various societies, but rather with the formation of a single integrity, a global system, or a global world. This single integrity is formed by the everexpanding number of different processes of globalization. All of the existing and newly emerging global processes lead to the creation of a global system in which a civilization finds new way sand perspectives of its further survival and permanent self-organization (Fig. 2). Figure 2. Globalization as an evolutionary process of the formation of a global world. Picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin. 128 Globalization Studies The conceptual notions of global studies are presently insufficiently developed, which in turn leads to an absence of definitive answers to a whole number of questions. For instance, the question of the beginnings of globalization remains unanswered. So far, not even one of the basic concepts – “globalization” itself has not received a generally accepted definition, not to mention the development of auxiliary concepts, which may further reveal its contents. Some scholars are of the opinion, that globalization began along with the major geographical discoveries and the subsequent colonization period, others link it to industrialization, the spread of market relations, the Western culture, democracy and statehood, while some associate "the wave of globalization" with the expansion of world religions, the introduction of global warfare, urbanization, computerization, etc. There is also the question of why is the most commonly accepted vision of globalization, one that is linked to the geographical discoveries, centred rather strictly on Europe? There is no answer to the question of what constitutes a global settlement of humanity after its "exodus" out of Africa. Is it not yet globalization or is it something else-one of the first social and socio-natural global processes? The existing diversity of opinion, as well as the lack of sufficient understanding of the roots of globalization (and what the concept means in and of itself) indicates not only a large variety of differing viewpoints, but also the fact that global studies are still going through the initial stages of formation, when there are more obscurities and problems up for discussion, rather than generally accepted findings and well-reasoned truths. The spontaneous process of globalization in the long term can lead to a "unity of mankind" as a kind of planetary community. This is a statement of the objectivity and reality of this process as well as its positive assessment. A single, global humanity, provided its fair and efficient organization, will be able to develop optimal strategies for survival in interaction with nature. Globalization is currently seen through the prism of market values and democratic ideals, the positive effects of the growing prosperity of the world's population without the accompanying and already visible negative effects. Despite the fact that globalization in general, is mostly an objective and positive process (as it is perceived by the majority of specialists) of creation in the course of human activity in a globally interconnected world, the growing number of its’ adverse effects is also typical for this process – a fact, closely paid attention to by anti-and alter globalists. This increase of negative tendencies is linked with the chaotic character of the expansion of globalization and other global processes. Exerting a measure of pre-emptive control over these developments is becoming a growing necessity on a global scale (Fig. 3). An idea was developed around the same period of time that is actively up ported and promoted by the UN: there is a need of a transition to an entirely new form of development, which will be delivered from all the multiplying threats, dangers and negatives that could destroy our civilization. The prospects for the evolution of globalization and other global processes are formed by the implementation of policies on the behalf of the international community. These long-term policies will be carried out through a form of global development, which will promote the positive and overcome the negative trends. This particular approach is characterized by the most important official document of the United Nations: “Millennium Development Goals"(MDGs, presented at the Millennium Summit in 2000) – eight international development goals that 193UN member states and more than twenty international organizations have agreed to achieve by 2015. The document stated that the central challenge we face today is to ensure that globalization becomes a positive force for all peoples of the world. This is due to the fact that, while globalization I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Globalization in the context of the transition to socionatural sustainable development 129 offers great opportunities, its benefits are as very unevenly distributed as its costs. Moreover, developing countries and countries with economies in the phase of transition face separate difficulties in taking action in relation to this central challenge. That is why only through broad and sustained efforts to create a shared future based upon our common humanity in all its diversity, can globalization be made fully inclusive and equitable. These efforts must include policies and measure sat the global level that would meet the needs of developing countries and countries with economies in transition and which would be formulated and implemented with their effective participation. Figure 3. The ambivalent character of globalization in the model of unsustainable development. Picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin The shape and even the strategy of development, corresponding to these ideas has already received the name of sustainable development (SD), which will unfold in the future in the form of a planetary evolutionary process aimed to preserve civilization, the biosphere, and their mutual co-evolution. The transition to SDwill be based on the priority of global principles, imperatives and objective sin relation to local, national and regional characteristics. This requires that absolutely all kinds of activities should be based on the priority of the objectives of transition to a far broader, global system. This transition is possible only on a global scale, not only because of the social processes of globalization (a desire for unity),but also because of biosphere factors, affecting the sustainability of the Earth’s ecosystem, and the necessity to bring the activities of the entire international community in line with the environment’s ability to adapt. The transition to SDisa global process: a new, "salvatory" form of global development, which can also be called “sustainable” evolution. The consideration of globalization in an evolutionary perspective is an important step towards gaining the knowledge of its essence and content, its communication and interaction with other global processes. The evolutionary vision of global processes - is a natural step towards understanding, and this approach helps 130 Globalization Studies use them in a more effective manner in the development of global operations, especially of global governance. Given the fact, that all contemporary forms of global development are spontaneous in nature, the transition to SD takes the form of a globally managed process. This is the reason why the study of this form of global development is of particular interest to global studies (see section on Global Governance). In order to avoid a global catastrophe and survive, humankind needs to radically transform the process of development, changing human values, goals and targets of translational motion, since they currently comprise a certain model of unsustainable development-USD (the name, that was given to the present form of development, adopted by our civilization, as decreed by the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro). At UNCED an unprecedented decision to change the model, the shape of the world, was made, turning the practice of unsustainable development of our civilization to the ideas of SD. Not even the most well developed country, let alone other nations, can transition to SD without radically altering their means and mechanisms of development, selecting new goals and principles, without realizing the specifics of their national development and security – the principles, that were outlined in the action plan of “Agenda 21”, adopted by all UN participants at UNCED. The transition to a new form or a “model” of civilizational development-SD, which currently exists only in the form of political declarations and recommendational documents of the UN, is due to concerns with ecology and environmental security in its broadest sense. However, all countries are in a differentsocio-economic and environmental situation. Therefore, the global transition to a sustainable society requires the recognition of certain specifics. For instance, in order to meet the long-term goals, Russia needs to combine the civilizational transition to SD with its development of modernization and innovation, according to the specificity of the present stages of the country’s development (including democratic reforms and the subsequent transition to a market economy). SD, in this context, refers to the planetary-driven system-balanced development of society and nature, effective without destroying the environment and ensuring the survival and continued existence of civilization for an indefinite period of time. In its broadest sense, SDcan be represented as non-regressive, or safe development, aimed to maintain the coevolution of civilization and the biosphere. This understanding suggests that the bases for this new type of development are principles that differ from the modern, unsustainable development, some of which are presented below (Fig. 4). It has now become evident that globalization and the transition to SD is important to regard as a “evolutionary whole”. UN documents, such as the already mentioned MDGs, along with documents signed at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, recommend directing the processes of globalization to the path of transition to SD. In fact, this goal should have already been in the process of implementation in the 2005–2014 decade by the UN member states as part of the Plan of Implementation of the summit. Many global processes during the course of implementation of this recommendation can acquire new content and orientation, which will significantly affect the process of globalization itself and the resolution of global conflicts and problems. In June, a third Summit on Sustainable Development will be held in Rio de Janeiro, which will consider the opportunities to build our common future (Fig. 5). I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Globalization in the context of the transition to socionatural sustainable development 131 Figure 4. The main principles of sustainable development. Picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin Figure 5. The UN Conference on Sustainable Development Rio+20 (will take place in Rio de Janeiro in June 2012, is expected to be the biggest event in the history of the United Nations) 132 Globalization Studies The UN Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio de Janeiro (Rio +20), provides an opportunity to turn our gaze to the future to see the world in which we would like to live-in 20 years. In addition, during the Conference solutions will be worked out, along with guidelines on what the world community should do to realize this vision. On the initiative of UN Secretary General, in preparation for this summit, the High Level Panel on Global Sustainability, which combines well-known figures of the world in their efforts to develop a new plan for sustainable development in the world, produced a report, the materials of which will be used in the intergovernmental processes, including preparations for the UN Conference on Sustainable Development in Rio 2012 (Fig. 6). Figure 6. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon (center) with the Global Sustainability Panel Cochairs (from left to right): President Tarja Halonen of Finland and President Jacob Zuma of South Africa The transition to SD is global in nature and is in need of global governance, in perspective of future civilization. This means that globalization needs to take its impulse and strategic direction from the currently virtual model of SD, losing its chaotic character, and becoming a socially projected and controlled (guided, at first) process of the evolutionary movement of humankind. The “inscribing” of the process of globalization into the SD strategy requires that all components of the latter strategy (and above all political, economic, social and environmental components)“work” in the direction of a new civilizational paradigm, increasing lybreaking away from the old development model, becoming less uncontrollable, and more manageable. This also means that all the main actors of the modern, and especially the future process of globalization, should also work on the transition to SD. This applies particularly to transnational actors-international organizations, business communities, especially the transnational corporations and banks, several of which have already taken the appropriate declarations of commitment to SD, such as the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. However, the large-scale assistance to globalization through SD, on behalf of global business, began to develop thanks to the emergence and implementation of the UN Global Compact. The UN Global Compact is an international voluntary initiative designed to promote the principles of socially responsible business, it is a political platform and a practical framework for companies, committed to the transition to sustainable development. The Global Compact sets the task of developing corporate social responsibility, to ensure corporate participation in the solving of the most pressing challenges of globalization processes (Fig. 7). I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Globalization in the context of the transition to socionatural sustainable development The Global Compact IS… A voluntary initiative to promote sustainable development and a responsible corporate civic stance 133 The Global Compact ISN'T… Legally binding A set of values based on the principles that have A means of monitoring corporate behaviour and received universal recognition coercion to implement the standards A network of companies and other interested parties A standard, a management system or acode of conduct A forum for learning and sharing experiences A regulatory authority, or public relations channel Figure 7. The UN Global Compact Today, it is of utmost importance to strengthen and broaden the participation of civil society, especially the business community, NGOs and other organizations, local communities and governments, in the preparation and the decision-making process regarding the transition to SD. It is important to intensify the processes of information exchange in the field of ecology and other fields of the aforementioned transition. This has, to some extent, been achieved through the UN Global Compact, which has been in effect for over ten years. An important role in this process is given to the state, which must take control of the processes of the transition to SD, and present such a transition as its main strategic goal, employing its political mechanisms and creating the legislative and regulatory frameworks part of the emerging global governance. The understanding of the role of global processes, as has been repeatedly pointed out, came from the global challenges of globalization. And understandably so: after all, the realization that the world can find their unity was previously prevented by the existence of a bipolar system in which the globalization processis not feasible in a positive evolutionary perspective. During the bipolar period the topic of globalization is not mentioned, mainly because each pole was implementing its’ own vision of politically-oriented regionalization, yet the policy of “peaceful geopolitics”, pursued in the post-Cold War period, has given rise to a new vision of integrative processes in international relations. The introduction of postCold War geopolitics was linked with the beginning of the understanding of globalization, which has then been labelled the "planetary globalization" (as opposed to the previous stage "regional globalization"). There is no doubt that the significant acceleration of globalization actually brought about the collapse of the bipolar world system, but this was mainly linked with the growth rates cales of westernization, which significantly increased in the post-Cold War period. Globalization as a potential planetary process took place even before that time, i.e. before the historical precedent of the bipolar world system, as, indeed, before the geopolitical approach to the analysis of this process. Thus, it is not a coincidence, that the first mention of the term "globalization", and especially the beginning of his comprehension is traced to the very last decades of the XX century. Moreover, the study of globalization, in essence, "swallowed up" any further study of global issues and, we feel, in some ways, even led to the loss of several important generalizing conclusions that have already been reached. This primarily relates to the issue of 134 Globalization Studies classification of global processes, including global issues and trends in globalization, as well as other planetary processes. The study of processes of globalization has focused mainly on social (in the broadest sense) aspects, and even in these cases most of the authors single out, above all, economic globalization, finding its justification in the fact that the model of USD, with its’ spontaneous processes of globalization is a system with a certain character, focused on market economy. In any case, the basic definitions of globalization are socio centric in nature, presenting globalization primarily as social integration and in this sense- the formation of a common humanity, integrity, interconnected planetary world of humankind– a mega society. The questions that relate the human world to nature, the source of our existence, have, until now, remained at the periphery of our priorities in understanding the processes of globalization, which gave, in our opinion, the one-sided picture of the vision of globalization. This is the price we pay for maintaining a research focus on the issue of globalization. However, if globalization is to be introduced through SD and seen only as asociocentric process, it will not be a means of implementing the strategy of global sustainability. Understanding the processes of globalization must not be limited to including the socionatural processes in the subject area of studies of the issue, but should also giving them the appropriate priority, in order to provide grounds for research that would be more holistic in nature .Indeed, the concept of SD is fundamentally different from all previous ideas of civilization. This concept focuses on the environmental and socionatural imperatives (as well as safety concerns, in their widest sense). All other concepts of the future reconstruction of the world do not deal with the fundamentals of the relationship of nature and society, limiting themselves strictly to the human world. The formation of global governance will be associated with a decrease(and, in time, the elimination) of certain negative sociopatological features of the modern civilization process and will support the positive features in terms of strategic tendencies of SD. An "SDdirected process" of globalization will be developed by the established global governance (distinguishing it from the current western-focused modernization), in order to secure a sustainable future. These forms of global design and management should be constructively complemented by the creative possibilities of the integrated noosphere of intelligence, thus orienting the global evolutionary process to the formation of a new sphere of reason as a new quality of civilization in its interaction with the environment. The future of socionatural development depends on the resolution of a basic contradiction in the "society-nature" system, which can be substantially identified with the system of "humanity-biosphere." The basic socionatural contradiction is the failure of the limited biosphere, with its’ largely depleted resources and deteriorating environmental conditions, to meet the ever-expanding demands of humankind. It was V.I. Vernadsky, who initially drew attention to the fact that mankind has become a geological force, one that is very actively involved in planetary geological processes. Unfortunately, involved not only in positive terms. And although he was not talking about globalization, it is now clear that this was one of the first main provisions on which we must base the further introduction of the concept of globalization as one of the most important global processes. It was during the introduction and exacerbation of some of the globalprocesses, when the main socionatural contradiction presented itself on a planetary scale. To resolve this conflict is to change the type of development of the single world community in a global socionaturalscale. I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Globalization in the context of the transition to socionatural sustainable development 135 In short, the modern human activities created the conditions that lead to degradation and even – in the short terms of this century-to anthropoecological disaster. The need for reorientation of the existing global tendencies and developments becomes clear. Globalization, if introduced through SD, would contribute to the resolution of the basic socionatural contradictions. It is of particular interest to focus on the socionatural vision of globalization, for it allows a deeper understanding of the essential features of this civilization as well as the planetary evolutionary process (Fig. 8). Figure 8. Globalization as a socionatural process. Picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin Speaking of global processes, we see a serious contradiction(actually, a serious theoretical omission on behalf of most social scientists) in the fact that globalization is reduced to a being socioeconomic process. With the "socioeconomic" interpretation of the terms of globalization, it appears that the desired unity (integrity) is acquired only for our 136 Globalization Studies civilization to, sooner or later, die as a result of an anthropoecological disaster. Thus, the socionatural contradiction is indeed one of the main contradictions of the present phase of globalization. Without its’ resolution, this global process cannot effectively develop in the humanist direction. The "socioeconomic" interpretation of the globalization process actually helps to resolve the basic socionatural contradiction. Such a solution can only be obtained via social engineering and construction of a new, fundamentally socionatural model of further evolution in the form of normative forecasting (or scripting) of our common sustainable future. And because of the priority of the socionatural factors(they are of decisive importance in the context of the formation of the SD model), the global processes should be identified with socionatural mechanisms and factors. They are the solution for the basic contradiction in the “civilization-biosphere” system and can actually save a single, in socioeconomic terms, humanity from perishing in the depths of social and environmental disaster. Without this, even the spontaneously positive effects of globalization are deprived of any historical and evolutionary sense, since they alone cannot lead to saving the planet and life (especially intelligent) on it. Globalization, in our opinion, can be regarded not simply as a spontaneous or guided process, one that potentially leads to a universal catastrophe, but rather as a process that we can now turn towards the survival of civilization and the preservation of the biosphere. And in order to achieve that goal, globalization must be focused on the usage of socionatural means and mechanisms to solve the aforementioned contradiction between society and nature. We understand globalization, as most scientists do, as a formation on the path of the social integration of one single humankind (a single planetary mega society), yet we nevertheless believe that it makes sense to talk about the formation of not only a social (or socioeconomic) system, but a single global socionatural system. It is understandable that with all the contradictions and multi-directional vectors of the fragments of the world society, it always was a more or less global system with different types of connections, since all of humanity "lived" on the same planet, in a single biosphere. This single biosphere was the primordial source of life, intelligence and, eventually, globality. However, in the beginning there were only but a few human communities in the biosphere, with few mutual relationships. The global settlement process and the subsequent social integration, along with rapid population growth, led to the establishment of an increasing number of connections between different segments of society. As these ties became closer and more important, new areas of joint activities appeared, gradually becoming more and more global in nature. The predefined nature of the globality of humankind as loosely tied set of people meant only that the naturalbiospheric ties dominated the social interactions of the time. It meant that the socionatural co-dependency was stronger than, or at least equal to internal social relationships. The above-mentioned global transition to SD also depends heavily on environment all imitations and the factors of global processes that are taking place. The natural factors presented themselves in the form of global environmental degradation, in the accelerating depletion of natural resources, etc. The development of globalization through SD clearly presents the socionatural essence of this process. This is a fundamentally new vision of a global process, seen in the co-evolutionary perspective of humanity and nature. Achieving a systemic social integrity in the course of the process of globalization will eventually lead to a socionatural unity, thus realizing the main goal of resolving the basic I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Globalization in the context of the transition to socionatural sustainable development 137 socionatural contradiction-the survival and continued development of our civilization, the solution of global problems and the elimination of threats and dangers to the continued existence of the human race. Therefore, should our civilization reach social cohesion, it will be seen as an end to the history of disunity and fragmentation of peoples and other local societies, spontaneous disintegration and fragmentation of the existing components of the society. A mega society will come into existence – a society, which will interact with nature in the “humanity – biosphere” system with a new degree of efficiency and rationality. The formation of co-evolutionary relationships is more plausible in the context of a “turn” to the normative trajectories of global SD. As a result, the globalization process will gain its’ co-evolutionary and socionatural integrity, and will be oriented to the main goals of SD – survival of our civilization and the preservation of the biosphere. That is the reason for our understanding of globalization as not only a formation of a single global “man-societybiosphere” system, in all its’ aspects, but rather the formation of a system of co-evolutionary relations between the individual components of the system, according to the already emerging tendencies and probable paths of civilization. Globalization through SD is a fundamental turning point in socionatural history and the forming global social ecosystem, one that is focused on the preservation of this system for indefinitely long periods of time in the future. Thus, the history of globalization can be divided in two stages – a stage of evolution within a system of unsustainable development, and, in the long term, its’ future development within the model of SD. This second stage shifts into the genesis of the noosphere, when different stages of the sphere of intelligence are formed – the information-based society within the model of SD, the ecological society, that has avoided the global ecological catastrophe and the cosmic civilization in our Solar System (see section “Nooglobalism and nooglobalistics”). It is to be expected that on this “noospheric stage”, with the existence of a single global society, globalization will not cease to exist, with its integrative potential depleted, but it will rather take on several new forms (Fig. 9). Figure 9. Globalization through sustainable development of noospheric orientation. Picture is drawn by R.R. Gabdullin 138 Globalization Studies The global transition to SD is seen not only as a new course (shape) of global development, giving equal opportunity to present and future generations to meet their needs, but also as a new co-evolutionary form of interaction between society and nature, preserving both components and allowing them to exist and develop without causing harm to each other, in a broader "system of coordinates." This is not the currently spontaneous development of states and peoples, but a process of global development directed by the entire international community, not only for the benefit of the "golden billion", but also for the good of all of humanity. This process requires the formation of a planetary level of control for the purposes and principles of movement towards our common sustainable future. In contrast to the USD model, which focuses mainly on the economic side of the issue and multiplies the threats and negative impacts, the new model will be more balanced, systematic, focusing on strengthening the positive effects and will be aimed towards a more rational way to resolve conflicts, arising from the process of civilization and the co-evolutionary interaction between society and nature of the Earth and space. However, the distinctive feature of this new phase of globalization is not only in its socionatural vision, but also the pre-emptive character of the nature of this global process. The comprehension of USD-based globalization processes is not always achieved in a timely fashion. In implementing the processes of globalization through SD the situation with comprehension changes dramatically, and the perception of global processes is gradually becoming anticipatory. The transition to SD depends on how quickly this happens. Globalization through SD should become a "pre-emptive" globalization, one that will lead to the necessity of solving global problems through the transition to SD. To a certain degree, globalization through sustainable development can be interpreted as a kind of "advance" globalization, which differs from the "lagging" globalization in the model of unsustainable development. Due to the transition to SD there is an increasing need to take into account the possibilities of meeting the needs and interests of future generations. Thus the rotation of the vector of globalization in the direction of the future is evident. Therefore, in view of the above, "sustainable" globalization will present itself as global, futuristically aimed, socionatural course of action on behalf of the global community. The principle of pre-emptive research and pre-emptive action has, to some extent, already been used in the model of unsustainable development, but it was focused on a different activity- the elimination of the negative consequences of emergencies and catastrophic situations, which is much less effective(even in economic terms) than their prevention. Anticipatory activity is directly related to the above-mentioned priority of global imperatives adherent to the policy and strategy of SD. The global ecological catastrophe can only be prevented, since there would be no one left to eliminate its’ consequences. That is why it is necessary to prevent negative environmental consequences of any economic processes in their decision-making stages, and stages of project development. And if the consequences (including long-term ones) cannot be predicted reliably due to alack of scientific information and other uncertainties, it is imperative to abandon any economic or other decisions and projects that might have any lasting impact on the environment. The evolution of global processes in the long term will advance through a planetary shift to SD, which will promote the positive and overcome the negative tendencies of global development. SD is the next process of planetary evolution, aimed at the preservation of civilization and the biosphere. The transition to this type of planetary evolution significantly changes the nature of any human activity. In this case it is necessary to act in such a way as to I.V. Ilyin, A.D. Ursul. Globalization in the context of the transition to socionatural sustainable development 139 satisfy the global biosphere cal imperatives of the transition to SD, along with securing the opportunities for the vital needs of present and future generations to be fully met. The requirement of the totality of global activities of mankind to meet the environmental standards is growing more and more prominent in both the spatial aspect - now spanning the entire planet as a whole (making the shift from local to global scales) – and the dimension of time, since all generations, present and future, must work to secure a safe future for humankind. This allows the concept of socionatural development to fit not only within the overarching concept of the evolution of the biosphere, but also to become a part of an even wider idea – the global-space evolution, giving it the capacity to become an organic part of the universal process of permanent self-organization in the universe. If globalization is generally perceived as a systemic unification of mankind in the formation of links between societies and the gradual settling around the globe, then the transition to SD would be regarded as a global process of the temporal extension of our civilization’s survival. Thus, global growth through SD appears as a single space-time process serving to further secure the existence and the genetic integrity of the human race. Ensuring the safety of further introduction of the processes of globalization in a progressive direction is seen as a top priority. This will guarantee humanity its’ abilities of self-preservation and further evolutionary self-organisation in the face of dangers, threats, crises and other negative influences of planetary and cosmic scales. Thus, the coming transition to a socionatural sustainable development presents itself in a deep evolutionary sense, as it enables a new form of global development to fit not only the concepts of evolution of the biosphere and the co-evolution of the geospheres of our planet, but also in the concepts of planetary evolution of extra solar planets, and, in the long term, the universal evolution, becoming the most active actor in the process of permanent selforganization of material systems in the universe. ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF GLOBALIZATION I.А. Aleshkovskiy 1 International Migration, Globalization and Development In the second half of the 20th century the mankind became a witness of insuperable and irreversible power of globalization processes, which affect all spheres of social life and create global system of interdependency between countries and nations. This growing interdependency is related to: • development of integration processes and expanding economic interdependency between national economies; • growing gap in the levels of economic development between developing and developed countries caused, inter alia, by demographical factor; • improvement of communication facilities and transport system, which allows information, goods and people to move free and quickly even between territories which are located very far from each other; • activities of international institutes and transnational corporations, which engage employees from different countries and promote their movements across the borders; • social connections that develop due to international migration of population and as a result of interracial marriages, in particular. This migration promotes formation of the global system of mutual aid. Globalization processes within impetuous changes in global political and economical systems have abrupt intensification of global migration streams and witnessed dramatic shifts in global migration trends that are resulting in formation of a new stage of migration history of the mankind. The most significant of these trends are: – unprecedented growth of the international migration scale and formation of “nation of migrants”; – widening geography of international migration flows by involving practically all the countries of the world in migration flows; – qualitative changes in the structure of the world migration flows in compliance with the requirements of globalizing labormarket; – determinant role of economic migration, primarily labour migration; – sufficient growth and structural insuperability of illegal migration; – growth of the scale and geographical widening of forced migration; – growing importance of international migration for demographic development of the world, both sending and receiving countries; – dual character of migration policy at international, regional and national levels. We have summarized these trends already in the 1990-s and 2010-s (see Iontsev, 1999; Iontsev, Aleshkovski, 2007) and by now, they have become well-formed. That’s why we turn back to these trends taking into account new data and new peculiarities in the 21st century. 1 Vice-Dean of the Faculty of Global Processes Lomonosov MSU, Associated Professor. I.А. Aleshkovskiy. International Migration, Globalization and Development 141 Growth of the international migration scale The collapse of former USSR and appearing on its place separate independent states, important political and social changes in Eastern Europe, the collapse of former Yugoslavia and prolonged conflict between Serbians and Albanians, crisis in the Persian Gulf in 1990, civil war in Rwanda and in Afghanistan – all these and other events of 1990-s set in motion vast and often uncontrolled international migration flows and moved out international migration of population among the most important global phenomena, which had an influence on the world economy and, accordingly, conditions of its globalization. Even because of the scale of international migration we can talk about it as about the phenomenon, which has a global influence. According to the United Nations Population Division 2010 estimates, more than 213 million persons live outside their country of birth, 66 per cent of all international migrants live in the more developed regions. Currently “classical” international migrants make up nearly 1 of every 35 persons in world; totally migrants make up almost 1 of every 10 persons in the developed regions and nearly 1 of every 70 persons in developing regions. Taken together, international migrants would now constitute the world’s fifth most populous nation if they all lived in the same place – after China, India, the United States and Indonesia. It should be noted that these figures do not include illegal immigrants, international tourists, labour migrants together with their family members, seasonal and frontier workers, forced migrants (refugees, displaced persons, asylum seekers, ‘ecological refugees’, etc.).So we will have the total number of persons who are involved in international migrations in this or that form is more than one billion persons. It means that if we summarize al the categories of migrants, every seventh Earth’s inhabitant is international migrant, in fact! The latter makes us talk about formation of the so called “nations of migrants”, which can be compared by its quantity with quantity of biggest nations of the world. The important indicator of the growing dynamism of international migration flows is international migrants number’ growth rate, which permanently increase. In the last decade of 20th century it was 3,1% a year. The number of “classic” international migrants (including refugees) has more than doubled over the last 45 years, from an estimated 75 million in 1960 to nearly 214 million in 2010. In other words, number of migrants during 1960–2010 grew annually at 1.9% on average, which is higher rate in comparison with the total world population growth rate (1.8% annually). Nowadays net migration accounts three quarters of population size growth in developed regions while in developing regions emigration has not led to significant decreases in population growth. So, in the contemporary world international migration flows became the global phenomena, which have an influence on all spheres of life of the world community, and international migration became one of key factors of social and economic development of states. Expansion of geography of international migration flows Nowadays in fact all countries of the world are involved in international migration to smaller and bigger extent. Even such “closed” states as Northern Korea, Cuba, or China are involved more and more actively in world migration processes, at that emigration from them is controlled much more strictly than immigration, contrary to many other countries. In China, for example, illegal emigration from the country is severely punished, up to death penalty. 142 Actual Problems of Globalization It’s necessary to note, that in spite of the fact that the majority of international migrants originate from developing countries, contemporary migration flows have not only a “South-North” or “East-West” vectors. Nearly half of all reported migrants move from one developing country to another and approximately the same part move from developing countries to the developed ones. In other words, number of migrants who move from «south to south», approximately balances number of migrants who move from «south to north». Source: Population Facts, No 2012/3. United Nations. June 2012. Figure 1. International migrant stock by origin and destination, 2010 (millions and percentages) In the 21st century, all countries and territories in the world are, in one way or another, countries of destination for some migrants. The age of fast transportations within the world affect every countries, and international migrants appear everywhere. If in 1965 there were 41 countries with number of migrants more than 300 thousands persons, in 2000 the number of such countries became 66, and by 2005 it reached 78, and in 37 of them the number of international migrants exceeded 1 million persons, while in 20 countries it exceeded 2.3 million. Diagram 1 based on the UN data shows 18 largest countries by number of international migrants staying there. At the top of the list are the USA (42.81 mln. persons), Russia (12.27 mln. persons) and Germany (10.76 mln. persons). When speaking about the geography of international migration of population, it is necessary to pay attention to its regional differences. As one can see from tables 1 2, considerable changes in regional distribution of international migrants have taken place over the last 50 years. In 1960, the major part of international migrants (57,2%) were in developing regions, while nowadays 61% of all international migrants live in developed countries. The latter is connected with the fact that in developed countries the number of migrants increased more than 83 million between 1960 and 2005 (3.5 times), whereas in developing countries the increase was barely 32 million (1.7 times). The growth of the migrant stock has been mostly concentrated in Europe and North America, where the number of international migrants rose 4.5 and 3.5 times accordingly. Nowadays Europe is the region with the greatest number of international migrants (over 64 mln in 2005), it is followed by Asia (53.3 mln), North America (44.5 mln), and 143 I.А. Aleshkovskiy. International Migration, Globalization and Development Africa (17.1 mln).The main “suppliers” of migrants are developing countries. This fact proves growing intensity of world migration flows and their globalization, because it took almost 120 years for movement of the same number of Europeans across the ocean since 1820. Diagramme 1. Countries with the largest international migrant stock, 2010, mln. of migrants USA 42,81 Russia 12,27 Germany 10,76 Saudi Arabia 7,29 Canada 7,2 France 6,69 United Kingdom 6,45 Spain 6,38 India 5,44 Ukraine 5,26 Australia 4,7 Italy 4,49 Pakistan 4,23 U.A.E. 3,29 Kazakhstan 3,08 Jordan 2,97 Israel 2,94 Hong Kong, SAR 2,74 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Source: International Migration 2009. United Nations, 2009. Table 1 Regions structure of international migration stock, 1960–2005 World Developed regions Developing regions Europe Africa Asia Latin America and Caribbean North America Oceania 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 42,8 47,2 47,8 53,2 57,5 59,4 60,5 57,2 52,8 52,2 46,8 42,5 40,6 39,5 18,9 23,1 22,1 31,9 33,5 32,9 33,6 12,1 12,2 14,2 10,6 10,9 9,3 9,0 37,7 34,2 32,4 32,2 28,6 28,5 28,0 8,0 7,0 6,1 4,5 3,7 3,6 3,5 16,6 16,0 18,2 17,8 20,3 22,9 23,9 2,8 3,7 3,8 3,1 3,1 2,9 2,6 Source: United Nations. Trends in Total Migrant Stock: The 2005 Revision http://esa.un.org/migration. 144 Actual Problems of Globalization Thus, the shits in the global migration situation over the last 50 years were primarily were related to considerable changes of geography of international migrant flows and increasing number of countries involved in international migration processes. Quality shifts in migration flows structure Deep changes that have happened in the world in the second half of the 20th century are rooted in the development of the post-industrial sector of economy and corresponding transformation of the global labor market demands, as well as liberal reforms and democratic shifts in the post-communist and developing countries. This has called for qualitatively new stage in international migration. The key changes in international migration regime are the following: Shift from permanent to temporary migration Existing data do not provide reliable information on temporary migration flows (because either entry visa is not required or the migrations are irregular) and the major part of temporary movements are not fixed by statistics, while detailed information on temporary migrants is not regular. Meanwhile, surveys conducted in some countries of destination and tourist statistics prove that during the recent five decades number of permanent (or long-term) migrants was gradually growing, however, numbers and frequency of short-term movements was growing much faster. By “short-term movements” we mean seasonal, circular, episodic migrations, including those with tourist visa. As contemporary “tourists” are often economically motivated migrants (up to some estimates, over 2/3 visitors with tourist visas are in fact economic migrants who enter a country of destination with an intention to find job, most often illegally, there). Thus, we tend to include tourists in the totality of international migrants despite the preconceived idea. Among all the forms and types of international migration, labor migration was growing most rapidly during the last decades. For example, between 1992 and 2000 number of temporary labor migrants entering the USA increased four times, in Austria – threefold, in the UK – twofold. It is connected, on the other hand, with spreading and more greater availability of transport facilities, making migration of people easier and «reducing» distance between countries and continents. In these conditions temporary work abroad is more preferable for individuals, than emigration, because it is connected with less material and non-material costs. On the other hand, globalization of world labor market requires more flexibility of migration behavior that can be partially guaranteed by labor migration. Attraction of foreign workers on temporary basis also corresponds to goals of immigration policy in developed countries that are the “globalization elite” and in many respects define conditions, under which other countries participate in globalization processes. Shifts in the qualitative structure of migration flows On the labor markets of developed countries that determine direction and activity of international labor migration flows there exists stable demand for foreign labor at 2 qualification “poles”: workers with low skills and workers with high skills in technologically advanced occupations. At the same time, demand for foreign labor in countries of destination evolves towards more qualified labor force, and receiving countries I.А. Aleshkovskiy. International Migration, Globalization and Development 145 strenuously encourage attraction of qualified immigrants in the branches and sectors of national economy that face labor deficit. Shifts in the qualitative structure of migration flows mean first of all the growth of the percentage of skilled professionals among international migrants. This trend is closely related to probably the most painful phenomenon in international migration, “brain drain”, i.e. nonreturn migration of highly skilled specialists — scientists, engineers, physicians, etc. (including potential intellectuals such as students, post-graduate students, trainees). The policy having a special purpose to attract skilled personnel from other countries is widely used by developed countries, first of all by the USA. However, according to the UN estimation only financial losses of developing countries from “brain drain” exceeded 60 billion USD in the last three decades, and total values of intellectual emigration from developing countries formed from 10 to 30 percents of their intellectual potential (ILO, 2006). On the other hand, low- and non-skilled migrants face new and new barriers on their way that close for them access to the countries of final destination. At the same time, push factors in less developed states still exist, together with pull factors in receiving countries (readiness of employers to hire cheap foreign workers 9even illegally) due to unwillingness of local citizens to take 3D vacancies. So, the receiving states are obligated to develop guest workers programs for temporary attraction of low-skilled migrants (ILO, 2006, p. 127–151). Feminization of migration flows It is traditionally considered, that the majority of international migrants are males. Females, when they took part in international migrations, were usually family members of male migrants. But in the beginning of the 1990-s researchers noted, that today more and more women migrate not to join their partner, but in search for employment in places where they will be better paid than in their home country. By the end of the 1990-s women’s share among migrants in a number of developed countries exceeded 50% (in the world in a whole – 49%). In labor migration flows from Philippines, Indonesia, Peru, East European countries the share of women prevails (more than 60%). In many respects, the latter fact is connected with structural modifications in the world economy, which accompany globalization processes. Development of the services economy encourage growth of this sector in the labor market structure in developed countries (textile industry, leisure industry, social service, sex services, etc.) and constantly growing need in female migrants including those occupied in unqualified jobs. At the same time, the majority of the existing labor facilities for females are in fact “risk spheres” connected with sexemployment or so-called “near sex” employment (employment, which is often mated with sex-services). These spheres offer major migration possibilities for female migrants today. Thus, feminization of migration flows is one of important trends of the contemporary international migration. Determining role of economic migration International migration flows develop under the influence of different factors, among which economical factors are preliminary. In its turn, the growing role and scale of economic migration (labor migration, first of all) is the most stable and long-lasting trend of international migration. It has gained crucial impulse with expansion of capitalist economy and commercialization of labor. From the point of view of globalization of the world economy the most important issue is the formation of world labor market that exists in export and import of labor resources; nowadays it has reached unprecedented scale. 146 Actual Problems of Globalization Table 2 ILO estimates of migrant workers by region, 2000. World Europe Africa Asia Latin America and Caribbean North America Oceania mln. persons 86,3 28,2 7,1 25,0 2,5 20,5 2,9 % 100 33 8 29 3 24 3 Source: Towards a fair deal for migrant workers in the global economy. Report VI. International Labour Conference, 92nd Session, 2004. Geneve, ILO, 2004. p. 7. In spite of the fact that it’s difficult to estimate total scale of international labor migration flows because not all the countries make such control and considerable part of labor migration is illegal, international labor migration has, undoubtedly, considerable scale and growing trend. According to the International Labor Organization (ILO) estimates, at the beginning of the 21st century the total number of legal labor migrants is estimated as over 86 million (120–180 million including family-members) compared to 3.2 million in 1960; approximately 32 millions labor migrants work in the developing countries (see table 2). In spite of the fact that migrant-workers consist no more than 4,2% of the total number of economically active population of the developed countries, for many receiving countries the role of labor migration is much more significant. By estimation of the OECD, in mid 2000-s migrant-workers consist almost 45% of labor force in Luxembourg, nearly 25% of Australia and 22% of Switzerland. Migrant-workers are considerable part in some developing countries (first of all, in countries of the Persian Gulf). Between 1985 and 2005 number of foreigners in the six oil-producing states of the Gulf Cooperation Council increased almost twice and reached 13 mln persons. It’s necessary to note that many countries are sending and receiving countries simultaneously. For example, Canada is a traditional country of destination for migrants, but also it sends a great number of workers, especially having high skills, to the USA; Thailand receives considerable number of unqualified immigrants from Myanma, Cambodia, and Laos, but sends its citizens to such countries as Israel, Japan and Taiwan (ILO, 2004, p. 6). Russia is a receiving country as well as a donor country in global labor migration flows. Three key factors determine expansion of international labor migration and increase of its role (IOM, 2006, p. 18): – the “pull” of changing demographic situation (first of all population ageing) and labor market needs in developed countries; – the “push” of demographic factors in developing countries and growing differences of incomes and possibilities between developing and developed regions, and increasing gap between the most dynamically developed countries and other developing world; – established inter-country networks based on family, culture and history. Remittances are the most immediate and tangible benefit of international labor migration. While receiving countries financially benefit from labor migration mainly via receiving tax payments, for sending countries financial inflow from migrant workers is more diverse. The World Bank estimates that, at the global level, remittance transfers more than doubled over the past decade, raising from $102 billion in 1995 to an estimated $232 billion in 2005. I.А. Aleshkovskiy. International Migration, Globalization and Development 147 Thus, labor migration, as a global transference of human capital, which it presents, has become an important factor of development of the global economy and at the same time it is a result and source of increasing interdependence of countries and regions of the world. Considering that international mobility of people in quest of jobs in the globalizing world will definitely increase, it is necessary for countries of origin and countries of destination of migrant-workers to develop effective and fair management of labor migration. Permanent growth and structural irresistibility of illegal immigration Labor migration is closely connected to another trend of contemporary international migration – permanent growth of illegal immigration. There are no reliable data on illegal migrants in the world. According to the different estimations now from 10 to 15% of all international migrants (from 19 to 29 million people) stay in the countries of destination violating the law. In other words, totally illegal migrants are about half of legal migrant-workers, and their number is not reducing despite restricting immigration rules and special laws directed against illegal immigration. Moreover, countries where use of labor illegal migrants is widely practiced, are replenished with developing states. Whatever routes and methods migrants use to enter a destination country and whatever methods are practiced to stop them, our opinion is that it is hardly possible to counteract effectively illegal migration under the existing governance of capitalistic norms when employers are interested in cheap and rightless labor of illegal migrants in receiving countries, so that illegal migrants become – as P. Linderdt argues – “pure taxpayers” beneficial for employers and receiving State. In combination with demographic pressure and economic push factors in sending countries, these circumstances make illegal migration in the contemporary world structurally irresistible. The latter does not mean however that the scale of illegal immigration is not to be restrained. In particular, it can be done by means of more effective management of legal migration flows. The most important issue for receiving governments is to realize that illegal migration is not a form of terrorism or criminality, which is to be fought by all repression means of a State. Neither they are to run to another extreme by opening wide the doors for migrants, so that they will have to defend their indigenous citizens rights against undesirable invasion of millions of aliens. Increase in the scale and geography of forced migration Forced migration is a totality of spatial movements related to permanent or temporary changes in place of residence caused by extreme reasons not depending on people’s will (political and ethnically based persecutions, natural disasters, technological accidents, ecological catastrophes, armed conflicts, etc.). Forced migrants include: refugees, internally displaced persons, asylum-seekers, ecological refugees, stateless persons and others. For most of them, emergency and life-threat push factors are determinative. Increase in the scale and geography of forced migration is related to the current stage of human development filled with political tension, wars, ethnic conflicts, and ecological disasters (after World war II, over 150 global and regional conflicts happened over the world). During the last decade of the 20th century the number of forced migrants related to the UNHCR jurisdiction (totally 27.3 million persons in 1995) increased 1.5 times in Asia, four times in Africa, ten (!) times in Europe. 148 Actual Problems of Globalization According to the UNHCR date, by the end of 2005 the global figure of forced migrants stood at 32.9 million, of which 13.9 millions refugees (including around 4 mln. Palestinian refugees), 12.8 mln. internally displaced persons, around 740 thousands asylumseekers and 5.8 million stateless persons (see table 11). If 25–30 mln. of ecological refugees and other types of forced migrants are added to the above estimate, the total number of forcedly moved persons comes up to 60 mln. There are a lot of attempts to use the “refugee channel” by economic migrants who would like to improve their living standards. However, international conventions on refugees and national legislation in different countries definitely declare that persons who leave their country in quest of better living conditions or better job can’t pretend for refugee status. This statement is of principal value for Russia where even official migration policy concept approves the status of so-called “economic refugees” as a part of forced migrants. This mistake results from misunderstanding of forced and voluntary forms of international migration. Therefore, forced migration as one of essential contemporary international migration trends has gained global scale. The increasing role of international migration in demographic development During the major part of the mankind history changes in population size were primarily resulting from natural increase of population. Evolution of mortality and fertility, the growing gap in demographic potentials between less developed and more developed nations, as well as globalization of the world economy have resulted to the growing role of international migration in the demographic development of the globe. Nowadays, international migration is one of the major factors of stabilization of world population. As for developed states, it is the principal (and in some countries – the only one) determinant of the population growth, while in the developing states it contributes the decrease in population growth rate and alleviates “population pressure”. “Replacement ratio” is a good example: in developed countries 142 potential workers (persons at the age 20–24) run to every 100 persons over pension age (60–64 years), however, only in 100 years this ratio will be 87 : 100. In contrast, in developing countries the replacement ratio is 342 : 100. In the context of the global tendency of decrease in population growth rate the developing regions are at the initial stage of this decrease while in the developed countries rate of natural population growth is often negative. For this reason the migration potential in developing countries remains high while developed countries are dependant on immigrants’ inflow to withstand local population ageing. Since 1960 more developed countries gain population through migration from developing states. Net migration was ever growing during four decades. During 2000-2005, the more developed regions were gaining annually 3.29 million migrants from developing regions, about 40 per cents of that net flow was directed to Northern America (1.3 million annually).Totally, about 70% of population size growth in more developed regions is resulting from migration inflow (i.e. international migration), compared to 36% in the 1960-s and 48% in the 1970-s. In many European countries where natural growth of population is negative, net migration is the only one factor of population increase. According to United Nations Population Division data, during 2000–2005, 33 of the 45 developed countries have been net receivers of international migrants. It is important to highlight that international migration is not only a source of increasing of a total population size but at the same time it has positive efect on its age and sex structure, bringing higher reproductive standards. I.А. Aleshkovskiy. International Migration, Globalization and Development 149 For Russia, international migration has gained particular importance in the 1990-s and 2000-s because of demographic crisis, being just the sole component balancing in fact a negative demographic situation. Migration surplus for 1992–2011 was about 5 million persons. In the 21st century depopulation trends and population ageing will make international migration a non-alternative factor of population growth in the majority of developed countries. In this context, not only impact of immigration on the population size in receiving countries are to be considered, but – what is more important – fundamental shifts in reproductive behavior, gender, age, and ethnic structure of the receiving countries’ populations due to inflow of immigrants from distant regions. The Dual Character of Migration Policy The dual character of migration policy is the main tendency of the modern development of international migration of population, which summarizes all the above mentioned trends. We also should emphasize that in regard to international migrants, a more strict and particularly regulative migration policy is observed, which represents a system of special measures, legislative acts and international agreements (bilateral and multilateral) regulating migration processes that have economic, demographic, geopolitical and other objectives. At the contemporary stage of globalization it is possible to identify three levels of migration policy: international, regional and national (at a country level). Duality of migration policy is clearly seen at each of these levels: at the international level (as confrontation of purposes and efforts of international organizations and national interests of certain countries), at the regional and interstate level (as combination of liberalization of migration regime by means of “transparent” borders within regional unions and restriction of migration policy towards migrants from the third countries) and at the national level (as contradiction between demographic and economic interests, on the one side, and reasons for political and social security, on the other side). As for the Russian migration policy, on the one hand, over the period of 1991–2010 a certain legal framework of international migration management was formed. On the other hand, in Russia migration is not yet considered a positive phenomenon. The state's top authorities proclaim (particularly, in the President's messages to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation) the thesis of the necessity for a reasonable immigration policy as well as compatriots and qualified workers intake. At the same time, the executive authorities practice a strict approach and treat migration (both legal and illegal) as a threat to national security. Ambiguous attitude to migration (especially of Russophones from CIS-countries and the Baltic states) as well as incomprehension of basic patterns of international migration make for the absence of the Federal Conception of Migration Policy. Unfortunately, there are no strategic conceptions in this field. The current situation adverses interests of economic and demographic development of Russia. Moreover, Russia is losing the opportunity of economic cooperation with the postSoviet states, including cooperation in the effective use of labour force potential. That potential can be explained by differences in demographic development, firm economic ties, and historical community etc. Therefore, there is an increasing necessity for migration policy that conforms the current migration situation. 150 Actual Problems of Globalization In our opinion, modern Russia needs to pay special attention to policy-making in the field of migration. The base of the policy should be the conception of migration as a common good rather then some disaster. Thus, it is necessary to pursue the policy (at federal and regional levels) that takes into account interests of the country's economical and demographical development. In its turn, for that purpose the authorities have to realize that only a reasonable, strategically considered migration policy that disallows the ‘triumph of national atavism over the logic of economic development’ (Demeny 2002: 73) can provide a legitimate international migration and rational use of migrants' qualification. References Aleshkovski, I., and Iontsev, V. (2007) International Migration, Globalization and Development // Migration and Development. Issue 20. Scientific series “International migration of population: Russia and modern world”. M.: BI El Print. Demeny, P. (2002) Prospects for International Migration: Globalization and its Discontents. Journal of Population Research 19(1): pp. 65–74. ILO (2004) Towards a Fair Deal for Migrant Workers in the Global Economy. International Labour Conference, 92nd Session 2004, Report VI. Geneva: International Labour Organization. ILO (2006) Facts on Migrant Labour. Geneva: International Labour Organization. UN (2011) International Migrant Stock: Migrants by Age and Sex. United Nations database. New York: United Nations. POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev. 2011). UN (2009) International Migration 2009. United Nations, New York, 2009. Iontsev, V. (1999) International Migration of Population: Theory and History of Studying. International Migration of Population: Russia and the Contemporary World 3. Moscow. In Russian. Ivahkniouk, I. V. (2005) International Labor Migration. Moscow: TEIS. In Russian. OECD (2011) International Migration Outlook 2011. Paris: OECD, SOPEMI. Stalker, P. (1996) The Work of Strangers: A Survey of International Labour Migration. Geneva: International Labour Organization. UN (2006) International Migration and Development.Report of the Secretary-General at the 60th session of UN General Assembly. A/60871. New York: United Nations. UN (2010) World Population Prospects. Revision 2010. United Nations, New York. V. Pantin1 Global Economic and Political Development in the First Half of the 21st Century: Forecast based on the Wave Conception The purpose of this paper is to describe the prospects for global developmentin the coming decades and to identify the most probable economic crises, political conflicts and upheavals. The new approach used here is based on the structural study of Kondratieff cycles (long waves), as well as on empirical analysis of the sequence of the most important historical events, those which proved to be turning points in world politics and economic development. In the past, this approach allowed us to predict precisely a number of important events and 1 Professor of the Faculty of Global Processes, Professor of Institute of World Economy and International Relations RAS. V. Pantin. Global Economic and Political Development in the First Half of the 21st Century… 151 shifts, including the economic crisis of 2000-2001 and the global crisis of 2008–2009. Unlike the overwhelming majority of studies that investigate long waves of social, economic and political development, the current paper takes into account their step reduction. The main reason of this reduction is the general acceleration of social, technological and informational development. Global political and social changes are closely related to economic and technological changes. This relation is presented on Fig. 1. Social and political instability (social conflicts) Geopolitical changes Economic instability (crises) Instability of World Politics (international conflicts and wars) Reduced resources (raw materials, cheap labour etc.) Technological changes Economic growth Figure 1. The Interaction between Geopolitical and Economic Changes Kondratieff cycles (K-waves) describe the most important technological and economic changes. There are reasons to believe that each Kondratieff cycle is characterized by the development and dominance of a specific set of technologies – the technological system, or by a technological and economic paradigm. Each technological system represents the accumulation of leading technologies of a given period, corresponding to a certain level of industrial development. At the same time, the introduction and effective use of new technologies is closely related to the development of economic, social and political institutions, ensuring the successful functioning of new technologies. The technologies and institutions that had dominated before begin to wear out in the downswings, creating the conditions for the development of a new set of technologies and new social institutions. Then, during the period of long-term economic expansion (the upswing), new technologies and institutions are improved and spread around the whole world. The cycle of technology and institutions is repeated but at the new level. That’s why Kondratieff cycles are the cycles of evolutionary complication of global economic and political system. Why are new technologies and institutions unable to establish themselves immediately, without economic crises and recessions, without cycles and waves? The answer is obvious – because old technologies and institutions prevent the establishment of the new, and crises make it necessary to replace the old with more effective structures. We can see these cycles and waves on Fig. 2 and Fig. 3. 152 Actual Problems of Globalization Figure 2. Dynamics of Dow-Johnes Index in Constant Prices Figure 3. Ratio of Dow-Johnes Index and Gold Prices (1800–2010) Technological and economic changes lead to development of new industries in every Kondratieff cycle (Table 1, Fig. 4 and 5). V. Pantin. Global Economic and Political Development in the First Half of the 21st Century… 153 Table 1 The Main Industries in Different Kondratieff Cycles Kondratieff Cycle I II III IV V VI The Period of the K-Cycle The Main Industries From the end of the 1780-s to the end of the 1840-s From the beginning of the 1850-s to the end of the 1890-s Cotton industry, industries based on steam engine Railway construction, steel production, steam ship construction Electrical and heavy engineering, inorganic chemistry Automobile industry, aircraft building, atomic energy, organic chemistry Microelectronics, personal computers, Internet Bio- and nanotechnology, advanced information technologies From the end of the 1890-s to the middle of the 1940-s From the middle of the 1940-s to the beginning of the 1980-s From the beginning of the 1980-s to the end of the 2010-s From the beginning of the 2020-s to the 2050-s Development of new technologies and industries needs new sources of energy. Periods of domination of different sources of energy also coincide with Kondratieff cycles (Fig. 4). Figure 4. Different Kinds and Sources of Energy: Increase of Energy Consumption in 1850–2000 The diffusion of innovations is in accordance with Kondratieff waves. It follows from here, in particular, that the extraordinary technological and social changes at the beginning of the 21st Century are largely determined by the formation of a new (sixth) technological structure and corresponding social institutions. The sixth technological structure, which is currently being formed, will most likely be based on new, more advanced information technologies, new materials, nano- and biotechnologies, and new, cleaner sources of energy. At the same time, the former (fifth) technological structure, which is based on the use of microelectronics, personal computers, Internet, and mobile and tele-communications, continues to dominate the world, including the developed countries. However, the opportunities for profitable, widespread reproduction of these technologies are being 154 Actual Problems of Globalization exhausted gradually. The crisis period 2005 – 2020 that we are currently experiencing is connected with this problem. It is also connected with the numerous dysfunctions of modern social and financial institutions. Figure 5. The Diffusion of Innovations in Accordance with Kondratieff Waves of Economic Activity Taking into consideration the step reduction in the duration of downswings of Kondratieff waves, a more precise structural model of world dynamics has been developed. This model is based on the structural similarity between the respective phases (waves) of Kondratieff cycles, which are confirmed on large empirical data. It can predict economic crises and their social and political consequences with a high degree of probability. Below, we consider the correspondence between downswings of Kondratieff cycles, which persists, despite the overall complication of the international system, and the reduced timescales of these waves (see Table 2). Table 2 The Structure of Downswings of Kondratieff Cycles FIRSTCYCLE 1813 (1815) – 1825–1832 (crisis) – 1837(crisis) – 1847 (1848) (crisis) SECONDCYCLE 1873 (1874) – 1882–1885 (crisis) – 1890 (crisis) – 1899 (1900) (crisis) THIRDCYCLE 1920 (1921) – 1929–1932 (crisis) – 1937 (crisis) – 1945 (1947) (crisis) FOURTHCYCLE 1969 (1970) – 1974–1975 (crisis) – 1979 (crisis) – 1982 (1983) (crisis) FIFTHCYCLE 2003 (2005) – 2008–2009 (crisis) – 2013 (crisis) – 2017 (2018) (crisis) V. Pantin. Global Economic and Political Development in the First Half of the 21st Century… 155 Each of the waves considered, regardless of its total duration, is clearly divided into three practically equal parts, with a fairly severe economic crisis at the end of each third. These crises are kinds of “resonance points” in world economy and global politics; these are the points at which a number of events and changes coincide. In other words, three stages of crisis development in world economy and politics can be traced, during which important social, institutional and ideological shifts take place. These social upheavals form the conditions for the establishment of new technologies and institutions. Serious crisis phenomena appear at the first stage, caused by the exhausting of the technologies that had dominated before, and the social institutions connected to them; this stage ends with a profound global crisis like those of 1825, 1929–1932 and 2008–2009. During the second stage, the instability of social, economic and political development worsens and depression follows. This happens primarily due to the fact that, as the crisis approaches, the most economists, businessmen and politicians continue to use the same, now redundant and inefficient methods. Finally, the third stage following the most recent crisis is characterized by major geopolitical and social shifts, sometimes in the form of large-scale wars or revolutions that break down old structures, institutions and ideologies, thereby creating conditions for the rapid development of new technologies and social institutions. A consequence of the development of new technologies and institutions is the creation of conditions for future long-term economic growth (for the upswing of the Kondratieff cycle). Thus, judging by the above concepts, it is entirely probable that the world community will have to endure a rather severe economic crisis around 2013–2014 (with accuracy of 1–2 years). This crisis is likely to have even more noticeable social and political consequences than the crisis of 2008–2009. In particular, it is possible that there will be an aggravation of the social and political situation not only in many European countries, but also in the USA, Russia, China and India, as well as in many other developing countries. A consequence of this crisis, it seems, will be the aggravation of a number of international military and political conflicts, with the greatest possibility of this happening in the period 2014–2020. Possible participants in these regional and international conflicts are the USA, Islamic countries (particularly Iran and Pakistan), Central Asian countries, Russia, India and China. The downswing of the fifth Kondratieff cycle will end in a crisis which, according to Table 2, will break out around 2017–2018. However, this crisis will not be as severe and difficult as the crises of 2008–2009 and 2013–2014, but it will eventually lead to large-scale social and geopolitical shifts. Thus, the entire crisis period of 2005 to 2020 will not be V- or W-shaped, but rather VW-shaped with three crises and, accordingly, three periods of minimal economic activity (2008–2009, 2013–2014 and 2017–2018). For these reasons, the period 2010–2025 is likely to be dominated by the processes of regionalization and the increasing role of regional economic and political unions. Apparently, it is inevitable that the role of individual countries within these regional unions will change. So, Germany may play a bigger and bigger role in the European Union and will seek to dictate the rules of the game for other European states, and even Russia. An increasingly significant role in other regional and international organizations will be played by China, which is already carrying out widespread regional and global economic expansion. The upswing of the new (sixth) Kondratieff wave will begin after 2020. This will be associated with the mass introduction of new technologies (advanced information technologies, new materials, biotechnology, nanotechnology, more environmentally friendly 156 Actual Problems of Globalization sources of energy etc.). Obviously, the widespread dissemination of these new technologies will require substantial changes of many social, political and economic institutions, including international institutions. Thus, it is extremely likely that changes to the structure and composition of the UN Security Council, IMF, World Bank, and other organizations will take place. These changes will be designed to implement a global administration. On this basis, it is likely that the global economy will develop rapidly in the period 2020–2040. At the same time, the gradual shift of the center of power from the West to the East, from Western Europe and the USA to Asia that began at the end of the 20-th Century will be felt during this period. The role of China, Japan, India and Southeast Asian countries will most likely increase, while the role of the USA and Western European countries will decrease somewhat. Figure 6. GDP of Different Countries till 2050 (in Constant Prices of 1990) In the middle of the 21-st Century (that is, after the end of the upswing of the sixth Kondratieff cycle) new, large-scale shocks and crises are not only possible, but highly probable. These shocks will be associated with the exhaustion of the previous model of global cyclical development, and with the global transition from an industrial to a post-industrial, information society, from one model of globalization to another. We can expect this transition to happen against the background of an exacerbated global environmental crisis, major demographic changes and associated large-scale geopolitical shifts from the West to the East. A new international political and economic system and new models of internal and global administration will arise as a result of these crises and shocks. D.I. Trubetskov, A.V. Ivanov, A.A. Koronovsky, A.E. Khramov, I.A. Yashkov. Modelling of Global Processes 157 D.I. Trubetskov1, A.V. Ivanov2, A.A. Koronovsky3, A.E. Khramov4, I.A. Yashkov5 Modelling of Global Processes While analyzing global processes one of the main directions for their forecasting is building of the models which describe the evolution of the regarded systems. As naturally global processes are the processes far from balance, the key role in their description is given to the definition of nonlinearity. That is why for their analyses, study and modelling it is necessary to use the modern non linear science – non linear dynamics (Modelling…, 2010). The main global systems within the planet are its envelopes (geospheres), and global processes are defined by their interaction in many ways. That is why modelling of natural and socio-natural global processes is successfully realized by means of study of different non linear effects in the structure and functioning of certain geospheres (fractality, self-organization, trigger effects, non linear fluctuations, etc.) taking into account their interaction and coevolution. The most difficult and, of course not still developed up to the end, are the modeled constructions of global processes of evolution of geological-geographic systems, climatic system of the earth, urbasphere, man and nature interaction. Concerning global geosystems and geoprocesses it is necessary to admit that nowadays it is difficult to name completed strict mathematical models. The stage of qualitative modelling and non linear understanding is being externalized, also definite non linear dynamic regularities are being revealed and separate elements of future models are being developed. The conception of coevolution of geospheres (Ivanov, 2004) expects the distinguishing of a complex of general qualities of the earth envelope as global systems, the most indicative of which are meshes and fractality, for this reason it is practical to develop a fractality-meshed model of geospheres (Ivanov, 2009). Potentially each geosphere can be endlessly delaminated into sub-spheres. A good example of this is stratisphere (laminated envelope of the planet – a sedimentary sheath), in the composition of which can be distinguished very minor intercalations, consider them by convention as separate sub-envelopes (Fig. 1) and assuming the global expansion. It is known that there is similarity of forms of geobodies of different sizes (layers, lens, terraces, forms of lap and so on). A fine quality is fractality of geosphere boundaries. A fine example is a boundary of lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere. In geomorphological term this is a system of shore lines as a whole with the erodible net of the planet. The shore line is widely known as an example of a fractal natural structure. The self-similarity of the erodible net (Fig. 2,3) is also proved (not only in the planned picture, but also in the cut – the qualitative analogues with the Koch curve are traced). During the analyses of the global erodible structure in the plan different kinds of joints (meshes) are distinguished. With the mentioned peculiarities of geological-geomorphological substrate the global distribution of biosphere living material is closely related, this allows us to speak about its fractal-meshed qualities. The most 1 Vice-Academician RAS, Head of the Electronics, Oscillations & Waves Department, Scientific Supervisor of the Faculty of Non-Linear Processes Chernyshevsky SSU, Professor. 2 Director of Mass-Media Center of the Faculty of Global Studies Lomonosov MSU, Head of the Department of UNESCO Branch in SSTU, Dean of the Faculty of Ecology and Service Gagarin SSTU, Professor. 3 Vice-Deanof the Faculty of Non-Linear Processes Chernyshevsky SSU, Professor. 4 Professor of the Faculty of Non-Linear Processes Chernyshevsky SSU. 5 Vice-Dean of the Faculty of Ecology and Service Gagarin SSTU, Head of the Laboratory of the Engineer Geoecology, Associated Professor. 158 Actual Problems of Globalization complicated fractal structures at the boundary of lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere connected with the biogeocoenosis and landscape systems can be followed through the example of the river deltas (Fig. 4). Fig. 1. The interval of a sedimentary sheath (stratisphere) – is a fractal system of potentially endless lamination (upper cretaceous basement in the Volga region) Figure 2. A network of gullies and ravines (a fragment of the global erosion network) as an example of natural fractals (river Volga banks) D.I. Trubetskov, A.V. Ivanov, A.A. Koronovsky, A.E. Khramov, I.A. Yashkov. Modelling of Global Processes 159 Figure 3. Relation of coverage cells (N) of the network of gullies and ravines in Povolgiemodel polygon to the size of the cell (ε), in double logarithmic scale, proves the fractal propeties of the erosion network All geospheres are imbued with fractal structures. Lithosphere and its sub-spheres are cut into cells by the fractal global system of fracturing (Carey, 1991) (Fig. 5, 6). The earth's mantle has its complex inner heterogeneity, which visually can be identified as self-similar. "Lithosphere-Mantle" system is imbued by the system of plumes and the structures of geosoliton character etc. Moreover, geospheres interact by means of the development of these structures. The issue of dynamics and development of the fractal-cellular geosphere structure is of special interest in a view of earth's global evolution and coevolution of its mantles. Nowadays the patterns of these changes within time are not clearly seen, but some aspects can be explained. Thus, according to paleographic data, we can assess the changes of the border of lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere in geological time (both the system of shorelines and erosion net). The separate direction of research which is of great practical significance is the study of the connection between the fractal-cellular geosphere structure and noospheric processes, anthropogenic activities and interference into the environment, global interaction of the humankind and nature. It is known that the mechanism of geosphere's substance movement contemplates the functioning of cells, in its turn it allows us to say that the main physical mantles of the planet have the similar global cellularity: convective cells of the mantle and lithosphere (in a view of global lithosphere plates tectonics), the cells of global atmospheric circulation, hydrosphere cells. The above views are also important in relation to the top of the geological and geomorphological substrate, which is especially important when assessing the development ofurbosphere as a result of the global process of urbanization. The main factor determining the ecological and geological hazard is a fault-fracture network of geological and geomorphological substrate, causing its structure, functioning and development of the manifestation of the dangerous processes that allows us to speak about the role of the geodynamic evolution of the network in the cities. Analysis of a number of model sites shows a mass display of items fault-fracture networks different in direction, the rank and origin, and tied into a system of lattice shape. The main element of the geological and geodynamic geomorphological substrate is polygonal in plan, subprizmaticheskie geological and geomorphological units (cells), controlled by elements of fault-fracture network. They are 160 Actual Problems of Globalization ranked and exhibit self-similarity property. There is an endogenous-exogenous dualism: tectonic faults control the large mesh, and smaller exogenous cracks. Based on this model arc (ring) structures can be considered as parts of polygons having arcuate (annular) shape due to the respective lengths of the sides and angles. To some extent, the corners are rounded, as they were "finalized" by the current network of gullies and ravines (associated with the faultfracture network) water, which contributes to the circular form of some objects in the plan. Many of the lineaments can be interpreted as matching the direction of a number of cells. They are usually controlled by the significant dislocations in the rank. The elements of the network of gullies and ravines emphasize the contours of the cells at various levels in both steady state and after slumping units, developing contour of the sliding body. New ideas on geodynamic network allow another look at the features of ecological and geological hazards in urban areas. This is especially important because urbosphere (developing in interaction with the physical shell of the noosphere and the biosphere of the Earth) also exhibits fractal properties of the honeycomb, which is expressed in particular in the drawing of the so-called global settlement framework. Figure 4. The Volga delta as a complicated fractal structure on the border of lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere connected to biogeocenotic and landscape systems (satellite image) D.I. Trubetskov, A.V. Ivanov, A.A. Koronovsky, A.E. Khramov, I.A. Yashkov. Modelling of Global Processes 161 Figure 5. Cells by W. Carey (Carey, 1991) Millions of years ago Figure 6. Changing of the global cellular systems in the Earth's history (Carey, 1991) Improving of global-climate models work is particularly relevant recently. Earth's climate depends on space and on planetary factors. Parameters of the Global Climate System Earth's geological time change all the cyclical nature with strong nonlinear effects (Fig. 7). Also today, a close relationship with global climate processes in the hydrosphere is obvious, they, in turn, were non-linear in geological time. Currently known concepts are combined into two groups: astronomical-physical and geological-geographical. All of them have planetary effects. Each concept corresponds to a certain model of varying degrees of completeness and applicability of mathematics. 162 Actual Problems of Globalization Colder Time The last ice-age Hotter Holocoen Transition from Eemian Figure 7. Isotope curve for the last interglacial period and the last glaciation – changes by one unit correspond to the temperature change by about 2 degrees Celsius (Johnsen et al., 1997) One of the global socio-native processes where the laws of nonlinear dynamics occur is population growth. To describe this global process nonlinear diffusion formula can be used. This is one of the standard formulas of non-linear dynamics (Modeling…, 2010) When the population is spread on the habitat area steadily, the density of the population is considered to be the function n(r/t), and r – coordinate of the area point, t – time. Population density is the number of people living in the area unit. Locally (in every point r) population growth will be described with the following logistic formula K(r) – maximum population density in the area point r, k(r) – factor of proportionality. The total quanity of the population living in the area will be defined by the following integral: S – Habitat area. Migration registration inside the country can be carried out by different methods. Traditional method for the description of such processes is putting diffusive component D 2n into the right part of the previously described formula: D – diffusion factor. Fig. 8 shows profile evolution of the normalized distribution of the population density n(x,t) and its “section” in the definite moment of time. On the right border of the analyzed interval (x=1) population density grows more intensively then on the left one. Consequently D.I. Trubetskov, A.V. Ivanov, A.A. Koronovsky, A.E. Khramov, I.A. Yashkov. Modelling of Global Processes 163 there is nonsynchronism dismatch) of the population density growth in different points of the habitat area. Figure 8. Change of normalized density distribution n(x,t) in the course of time, value of the control parameters being D=0.01, k=5.1, K=1 Fig. 9 shows dependence N(t) (solid line) defined according to the model of the nonlinear diffusion formula with real statistics data of the USA population census (dots). The offered distributive model describes the dynamics of the population number well. Along with the mentioned modeling to understand better dynamics of the population growth detailed analysis of the demographic data and their classification is necessary. To do this we are going to analyze demographic data of the population growth in USA over a period of time since 1790 to 1990. The population number of every state is represented with the decade interval, starting from the moment of the state annexation to the territory of the USA. USA population size years Figure 9. The results of calculations in the dynamics of the USA population, based on the nonlinear diffusion equation and the known statistics of demographic data Using the state as an “elementary” unit is bound to the fact that its territory has a large number of people, thus small fluctuations in population due to the local demographic factors 164 Actual Problems of Globalization (which strongly affect the dynamics of smaller territorial units – districts, counties, etc.) do not significantly affect its total population. At the same time at the first approximation for the state we can ignore the spatial distribution and heterogeneity of the population settlement on its territory. This model reduces the description of the quantity N(t) of the country (particularly the USA) to the analysis of the sum of several solutions of logistic equations: N K  N i  dN i  ki i i N t    N i t  Ki dt i , , where ki, Ki are constants. “Misalignment” in time of the population dynamics in different territorial units is taken into account in this model by the distribution of values in the initial conditions for each of the logistic equations giving the total population. It was found that all the USA states can be divided into three groups according to the degree of compliance of demographic data to the solution of logistic equation with the appropriate parameters and initial conditions (see Fig. 10). The first group (Group A) comprises the states where the population is in a good agreement with the logistic equation. The second group (group B) comprises the states, where the dependence of the population has a characteristic point of inflection relative to the curve of solving the logistic equation. Finally, the third group (group C) corresponds to the states, where the population dynamics is practically not described by the logistic curve. Figure 10. The division of the US into groups according to the degree of correspondence of the demographic data for each state to the logistic equation solution. The states from group A are marked with dark color, Group B with grey color, and group C with white Fig. 10 shows that groups of states, allocated on the base of the analysis of the demographic data related to the solution of the logistic equation, are also localized by a territorial indicator. Thus the states of group A are localized primarily on the South of the USA as well as on the shores of the Atlantic (East) and the Pacific (West) oceans. The states of Group B are localized in the western part of the United States, directly adjoining the states of group A, and three states are localized in the central part, forming a compact area. D.I. Trubetskov, A.V. Ivanov, A.A. Koronovsky, A.E. Khramov, I.A. Yashkov. Modelling of Global Processes 165 Comparing these data with historical data of the territories’ colonization in the United States detected a definite correspondence between the date of accession of the State to the United States or the beginning of the state settlement and matching of its population growth to the logistic equation. Fig. 11 shows a map, where different times of the territories’ accession of the United States are indicated by different colors. The time of territory accession characterizes the start of intensive settlement of the area. At the same time in Fig. 11 the territories of the states which became the part of the United States in the second (in the period of 1790-1860) or even in the third (the state accession date is later than 1890) stages, but which were already densely populated by this time are marked by a thick line. These are areas which historically were intensively colonized from the time of the land settlement of the American continent by Europeans. the states which originally did not form part of the USA whose territory was densely populated before 1790 Figure 11. The history of settlement of the USA territory If we compare the distribution of the states into groups based on the extent to which demographic data solving the logistic equation (Fig. 10)and maps of the USA history of colonization(Fig. 11), we can see that the geographical location of the states of A (the state's population which obeys the logistic equation)almost perfectly matches the earliest populated territories (areas on the map of the relevant areas, painted a dark color and the areas bounded by thick lines at Fig. 10. At the same time between groups B and C state sand the states that joined the United States later alsoobserveda certain line (see Fig. 10 and Fig. 11 (areas shaded light gray and white)). 166 Actual Problems of Globalization To confirm these patterns in the population dynamics of various U.S. states was analyzed depending on the specific capacityi territory and it is home to the population of different states, from the beginning of settlement of the territory. For each state the specific capacitance was defined as the ratio of carrying capacity, iemaximum population that can reside on the territory of the State, its area Si i = Ki / Si. As the carrying capacity (the maximum number of residents who may reside in the state) Ki was taken to the value obtained from the approximation of the solution of demographic data the logistic equation. The specific capacity is in some sense characteristic of the attractiveness of a territory for the life of people there. This value is determined by the geographic (landscape, climate, etc.), economic, political and other reasons. The value of specific capacity should be considered as an averaged characteristic of the attractiveness of the territory of the state for the population living on its territory. As a result, studies have shown that the value of specific capacity of all states can again be divided roughly in to three groups, with the highest specific capacity states are populated before all, and the least-the least populated. Figure 12. The distribution of the states according to the value of specific capacity (“attractiveness”) of a territory High values of specific capacity of the population, corresponding to states of A, suggest that in these states, the number of people close to the limiting value, as determined by the medium capacity K .Conversely, small values of the specific density of states of the group indicate that these states are still at the very beginning of the "logistic" growth of the population living on their territory. D.I. Trubetskov, A.V. Ivanov, A.A. Koronovsky, A.E. Khramov, I.A. Yashkov. Modelling of Global Processes 167 Another striking example of application of methods of nonlinear dynamics for global processes modeling are Vidlih modified equations. Unlike Vidlih we will consider now three variables x, y and z which have a simultaneous or antagonistic influence on each other: dx  xa  y , z   s  x  dt , dy  yb x, z   s  y  dt , dz  z c  x, y   s  z  dt , where t is dimensionless time, s is adjustable parameter characterizing extent of macrovariables on each other, and a (y, z), b (x, z), c (x, y) are the functions of influence stipulating simultaneous or antagonistic nature of interaction of macrovariables. It is possible to attribute certain specific content to macrovariables: having allocated three main quantities most fully characterizing a condition of social system and, having established the nature of interaction between these values (i.e. having established the character of interrelations: simultaneous or antagonistic ones), we can make an attempt to describe qualitatively the dynamics of the system, to explain the processes taking place in practical social system, and with bigger or smaller degree of accuracy to predict further possible evolution of a situation, as well as to specify possibilities of impact on occurring events. Let's consider a situation to which the given model, namely the processes occurring in a securities market, can be applied. Let the price of some kind of securities (for example, shares) be characterized by a variable z; demand for shares (the quantity of shares which the population wishes to buy at present time) as variable x, and the offer of shares as variable y. We will establish the character of interrelations between macrovariables. It is natural to assume that, with increase of the shares price, the demand for them decreases, and the offer, on the contrary, increases that testifies to antagonistic influence of variable z on variable x and simultaneous influence of variable z on variable y. At the same time when at great demand for shares (variable x is great), the price for them grows, and at the big offer (variable y is great) it falls, i.e. x simultaneously influences variable z whereas y is an antagonistic variable in relation to z. It is reasonable to consider that interaction of variables x and y has mutually antagonistic character stipulated, first of all, by the psychological reasons. The parameter s can be considered as a measure of activity of the population in securities market: small values of s correspond to normal life of stock market when the situation is under control of professionals; average values of s – correspond to hyperactivity and high values correspond to stock jobbing. When s is small there are fading fluctuationsin the system, and, on termination of transient process, a certain ratio between demand offer and price has been established. When the value of parameter s increases periodic fluctuations occur in the system (Fig. 13) whose amplitude depends on the value of s and correspond to the following processes: at a certain period of time x it high, and y and z are small, i.e. the demand for shares is high, but the price and the offer in the market are low. Since the demand is high, and the offer is low, the price grows (z increases) that leads to demand reduction. When reaching the maximum price the demand falls almost to zero, and the offer grows that leads to shares price reduction. At the 168 Actual Problems of Globalization maximum offer and low demand, the shares price is low that leads to the reduction of the offer and stimulates the growth in demand, then the cycle repeats. Figure 13. The expanding market: a) there are periodic fluctuations in the system; b) the first doubling of the period. The period cycle one loses stability, on its base the period cycle two appears; c) the behavior of the system in phase space corresponds to the cycle of period four; d) chaotic dynamics, there exists a strange attractor in phase space Using such equations it is possible to carry out qualitative modeling of global processes, for example formation of public opinion, development of an education system in competitive environment, etc. References Ivanov A.V. Co evolution of geospheres: elements of binialnost and synergetics// Biniology, simmetrology and synergetics in the natural sciences. – Tyumen: TSOGU, 2004. P. 8–12. Ivanov A.V. Fractal network model of geospheres // Geology: history, theory, practice. Proceedings of the international conference dedicated to 250 anniversary of the State Geological Museum n. a. V.I. Vernadsky RAS. –- M.: SGM RAS, 2009. P. 94–96. Carey S. W. Theories of the Earth and Universe: A History of Dogma in the Earth Sciences. – M.: Mir, 1991. 447 p. Modeling the nonlinear dynamics of global processes edited by I.V. Il’in and D.I. Trubetskov. – M.: Moscow University Press, 2010. 412 p. Johnsen S.J., Clausen H.B., Dansgaard W., Gundestrup N.S., Hammer C.U., Andersen K.K., Hvidberg C.S., Dahl-Jensen D., Steffensen J.P., Shoji, H., Sveinbjornsdottir A.E., White J.W.C., Jouzel J., Fisher D. The 18 O record along the Greenland Ice Core Project deep ice core and the problem of possible Eemian climatic instability // J. Geophys. Res., 1102, 26, 397–26, 410, 1997. A.I. Andreyev, … . Global innovation process: systematic approach 169 A.I. Andreyev1, J.V. Bozhevolnov2, E.O. Gorokhova3, A.V. Mikhailov4, B.V. Bozhevolnov5, V.E. Chernov6 Global innovation process: systematic approach Today there is a competition between developed and developing countries in global economy. Developed countries in order to maintain their level are creating new high-tech markets. Developing countries have put the ambitious goal of entering that new markets. Launch of the innovation process (in terms of the fundamental laws of complex systems) is a common system management task and requires the response to several questions: What is the structure of the system? Where can management be implicated? How to manage? How to ensure effective governance? In the present work the authors give an attempt to describe the system of global innovation process (the global shift to a new technological age) and to find the key parameter for management. Jobs are the basis of society Conscious action requires knowledge of the process model. The more accurately the model describes the reality the closer the outcome and the projection are. Construction of the model consists of a series of iterative approximations making the system description more and more accurate. Properly selected model elements and their relationships gives more than just prediction for the system response to stress – it also shows the characteristic scales and times for various processes in the system. The system System in the broadest sense can be defined as a set of objects and relationships between them with a new emergent properties (the properties that are absent at the level of objects). Open system changes its state within the interaction with the environment. A common approach is to divide the system into three parts: the power unit (responsible for the interaction with the environment), information unit (subsystems informative communication), and comparator (the acceptor of the result [Anokhin, 1973]). The latter allows the system to compare the result of its action with the expected result, thereby making the pursuit of the goal possible. This phenomenon is known as feedback [Norbert Wiener, 1948]. If the result evaluation is incorrect, the system will move to a distorted goal. Consider a model in which the society is an evolutionary organization level of biological systems. Social life is an open system where economic processes support the demographic cycle of reproduction (which is analogous to the metabolism) and where they are improved via the evolutionary process. Technological ages are discrete stages of the economic evolution. The host of jobs determines the efficiency of interaction between society and environment and this makes jobs the key parameter of the system. 1 Vice dean at Faculty of Global Processes, MSU. Lecturer at Faculty of Global Processes, MSU. 3 Student at Faculty of Global Processes, MSU. 4 Student at Faculty of Global Processes, MSU. 5 Professor at Faculty of Physics, SPbSU. 6 CEO at JSC NIIST, St. Petersburg. 2 170 Actual Problems of Globalization The model of society as a functional system Demographic cycle, covering the period from 0 to 40 years, is the main circuit of the model (see Fig. 1). Peak of qualified activity (24–40) coincides with the peak of reproductive activity which further stimulates the employee to improve his financial efficiency. The economic circuit in the model is represented by professional activity (see Fig. 1). Jobs correspond to the average, higher and post-diploma education. The circuit supports two flows that feed the demographic cycle. The first flow is jobs that produce liquid products for foreign markets and set the standards of living. The second one is the tertiary sector employment, which gives the rest of society the ability to match the given level. The tertiary sector is creating jobs for the least qualified (in terms of liquid product creation) workers. The employment dynamics characterize the state of system. Figure 1. Society is an open system. The jobs are the basic resource for demography cycle Technological age lifecycle in terms of number of jobs Consider the structure of jobs that depends on the stage of technological development and management strategies. Market saturation starts the crisis Market extends during the largest part of the technological cycle (see Fig. 2) and the number of jobs for the specific market can be described with logistic function. At the stage of market growth costly innovative projects are blocked due to demand not innovative but modernizing technologies. Market saturation brings the competition between ultra-efficient enterprises. The number of jobs slowly and inevitably reduces due to the increase of manufacturing efficiency (see Fig. 2, dotted line). A.I. Andreyev, … . Global innovation process: systematic approach 171 Figure 2. Number of jobs dynamics for specific market. Solid curve is logistic function. Dashed line illustrates job cuts due to modernizing of manufacturing The beginning of the crisis Within this model the beginning of the crisis is marked with reduced employment, although the volume of production can still grow while its growth rate declines. Supporting demographic cycle requires compensating reduced employment. There are two possible idealized scenarios of control. The first scenario is to increase the volume of production (see Fig. 3) by implementing the policy of modernization as optimization of logistics or price to quality ratio. The result usually indicates that extremely sophisticated technology does not generate a large number of jobs. Secondhand technologies that can no longer generate profit in the developed countries form a new worldwide market. Purchasing these technologies compensates for the natural decrease in the number of jobs for a certain period (see Fig. 3, blue curve). Figure 3. Number of jobs dynamics prior to crisis. Dash-dotted curve is the number of jobs. Blue curve is the scenario of job cuts compensation with modernizing of technology. Green curve is the scenario of creation of new jobs due to emerging of new market. The number of new jobs (Δinn) doesn’t exceed the number of additional jobs (Δmod) The second scenario is based on the substitution (see Fig. 3, green curve) of obsolete jobs with jobs belonging to the next technological age. Innovation only partly compensates 172 Actual Problems of Globalization the jobs cuts, but it is necessary to mobilize the scientific and technical community (GM Media, 2011). Crisis Sharp drop in the number of traditional jobs The technologically advanced business’ desire to upgrade its assets and occupy new markets is accompanied by a (see Fig. 4, red curve), and creates favorable conditions for sustainable growth in the number of new jobs (see Fig. 4, green curve). The process is aggravated by a decline in demand for services. Figure 4. The number of jobs in the crisis. Dash-dotted curve is the number of jobs on the dying market. Blue curve is the scenario of job cuts compensation with modernizing of technology. Green curve is the scenario of creation of new jobs due to emerging of new market. The number of new jobs (Δinn) doesn’t exceed the number of additional jobs (Δmod). Red curve is the scenario of safe substitution of obsolete job with new ones in the innovative scenario. Blue dash is the collapse in modernizing scenario Common foreign market facilitates the exchange of goods between the societies. Technologically obsolete product will inevitably be removed (Volterra, 1926) from the external, and then from the internal market, which will result in an avalanche-like reduction of employment rate (see Fig. 4, the blue dashed curve). Moreover, this scenario reduces the period of disposal of obsolete jobs and new qualifications training. The collapse in production exacerbates the catastrophic elimination of employment in tertiary (for example, Greece-2011 and the Sochi-2015). Out of the Crisis New liquid product creation and new market aggressive capture (see, for example, GBC, 2011) lead to further employment growth. Societies’ arrangement in terms of technological development (for the new order) will be complete, as soon as new external market leaders will appear (see, for example, Obama & Rousseff, 2011) Crisis is the mechanism for selection of societies The history of mankind can be viewed as a series of bifurcations. Ilya Prigogine (2000) This part of our work shows that crisis is an opportunity, not necessarily a threat to the system. The crisis sets the basis for growth. However, the emerging risks are to be assessed We define sustainable development of the demographic cycle as a system goal of society. After it overcomes the crisis, society settles into one of two stable states with either A.I. Andreyev, … . Global innovation process: systematic approach 173 technological or resource-dependent economy. Continuing the analogy with living systems, we note that fundamental science (like a new enzyme) allows you to withdraw society from competition to the new level of subsistence. It is clear that the essential necessities of degrading society will be satisfied only as they meet the needs of a technologically developed society. Elementary management acts The notion of elementary act usually defines a model that describes the minimal change of the system. A succession of states manifests itself as an evolution. System’s management allows you to achieve the goal, if all its subsystems are able to consistently and adequately respond to external stimuli, taking into account the desire of the whole system to achieve the goal. Comparison of the current state to the target is provided by the comparator (acceptor of the result). The result of comparison sets the direction of change of states of the system as a whole through feedback mechanisms. Art of Management ( υβ ρνητ ή) is studying general laws of management processes in various systems, be it cars, living organisms or society. Law of Requisite Variety Management system ensures the achievement of goals only if the variety (complexity) of the controller is at least as big as the variety of the system. This is known as the Law of Requisite Variety by William Ross Ashby (1956). The law allows us to define the difference between management and performing systems. In the second case the outcome can be defined as the execution of the program regardless of the system goal achievement. Clearly, the administration of a difficult situation by prescription of actions has no feedback and cannot be defined as management. Ashby's Law gives the obvious corollary, understanding which allows to manage system-level intervention in the flow of information, without directly affecting the power unit of the system (in this case – the demographic cycle, supported by the economy). Death of the System The organization (complexity) of the system under the action of the external flow is known as the phenomenon of self-organization (Prigogine, 1980). When non-compliance of management and situation complexity (for example, when trying to manage the process of crisis change in external conditions) power unit, namely the part that connects the system with the external environment and through which the external flow organizes the system as such, will fail first. The scenario leads to the death of the system. Corruption If the power unit of the system has sufficient margin of endurance and control system does not meet the situational complexity, system-spanning flows and their regulators (Prigogine, 1980). In terms of administration it is corruption. The phenomenon of selforganization (Ashby, 1947) in the system is the objective cause of corruption. In the formulation of Haken (2000): “Self-organization is the ordering process in an open system due to coherent interaction of many elements of its components.” Thus, corruption is a marker of the range of non-compliance of administrative structure to the community structure of functional civil society needs. System-spanning regulation mechanism demolition without the development of adequate to the level of complexity control systems will destroy the system. 174 Actual Problems of Globalization Resource-based economy Ceteris paribus system sooner or later reaches the goal that is accepted as a desired result. In other words, the system will reach the goal, which is adequate to its functional structure and the structure of its acceptor. Moreover, in the process of evolution the system optimize its structure. In the case of resource-based economy the optimization will reduce population to the level of the demographic capacity of the resource sector. Bifurcation as a model of innovation process Consider the link between micro and macroeconomics. Consider the volume of liquid product produced over a fixed (reporting) period of time as an integrated macro parameter, while at the microscale it will be the average value of a single commercial transaction. Since both the volume of output, and the average value of the transaction can be explicitly compared with the energy equivalent, it is possible to consider the model of system economic taking into account simple thermodynamic considerations. In accordance with the jobs specificity innovative production will be taken into account with a positive sign (in terms of energy equivalent), while the production of goods, being substituted by an innovative product with the negative one. Similarly, we assign a sign to transactions (commercial activities). In Fig. Five. black line represents the amount of traditional production of liquid product. Green Line - the volume of product innovation (ΔE> 0). Red line – the amount of replaceable traditional product (ΔE <0). Since the average value of commercial events (denoted by ± kT) is much smaller than the volume of production, the sequence of business events (including transaction sign) will be a small random perturbation – the noise. Thus, Fig. 5. illustrates the possible scenarios of development of production near the bifurcation point (the crisis). To the right of the bifurcation point ( 1) inertial state of the system (dotted line) becomes unstable and the system is characterized by two stable states modernization (red branch) and innovative process (green branch). We estimate the probability of each scenario. From thermodynamics we know that the pace of the process (V percent) is determined by its energy characteristics, namely: Vproc = V0 exp(–ΔE/kT), where V0 is a characteristic rate of the process in the absence of restrictions, ΔE - the energy barrier to overcome which is necessary for this process activation, kT is the average energy of the system. The probability (pi) that the system is in the i-state is proportional to the rate of the process. At the moment 2, for which ΔE = kT, the ratio of probabilities to be in the upper branch of (p+1) and the lower branch of (p-1) is equal to the ratio of velocities V+1 / V-1 = exp (-2ΔE/kT ) ≈ 0.14, since the total probability of all possible events is 1, we obtain the following estimate: the probability p1 ≈ 1 / 1.14 ≈ 0.88 and the probability p+1 ≈ 0.14 / 1.14 ≈ 0.12 . Note authoritative experts (Akayev, Pantin, 2011) agree that it is 2015 which will, in many ways, be a turning point for the economy, when the impact on the choice of the branch would be impossible. Thus, near the bifurcation point there is a certain amount of time in which the noise of commercial events significantly affects the probability of selecting one of two scenarios. The role of noise near bifurcation points of complex systems of different nature is the subject of current research (Horsthemke W, Lefever, 1987). I. Prigogine and I. Stengers (1984) note that A.I. Andreyev, … . Global innovation process: systematic approach 175 for systems with positive feedback random fluctuation of the external flow (often referred to as noise) gives rise to new types of evolution of the system, such as hysteresis 11 . Figure 5. Economy near the bifurcation point (the crisis). If you try to keep the system on an unstable branch of the probability of a phase transition to the upper branch decreases exponentially and the transition to the lower branch becomes inevitable The balance of backward linkages in the economic processes affects their resistance to the considered noise, and its nature depends on the stage of technological order. Taking into account the type of jobs created during crisis led to a bifurcation model in which the effective management of the economy is possible through controlling the character of the noise. Figuratively speaking, the effect of noise on the system near the bifurcation point is similar to the wind blow. Why does one strategies lead to success and not the other? The real system under the influence of small external noise realizes only one of the possible scenarios, the choice of which is predetermined by the nature of the noise (Horsthemke W, Lefever, 1987 and Arnold, 2004). In our model the noise is associated with the nature of commercial transactions. The principal feature of the passage of the bifurcation point (Fig. 6a) by a real system is, as shown previously (see bifurcation as a model of innovation process), the presence of an energy corridor, which can influence the choice of scenario. 176 Actual Problems of Globalization Figure 6. Fork bifurcation and its transformation to the one of two scenarios. Green curve represents progressive scenario. Red curve represents degradation. a) Solid curves are the stable trajectories and dashed curve is unstable; b) Scenario of degradation of the system. Catch up the innovative scenario costs ΔE which is very high in terms of integral index. c) Progressive scenario when degradation is possible only in case of catastrophe (ΔE must be taken out of economy) Consider the scenarios of the society evolution from the perspective of the creation or purchase of productive technologies. Scenario I: new technologies creation. (see Fig. 6b) green branch). In society there is a mechanism of formation of the innovation portfolio, based on Fundamental Science. The earlier and more systematically this mechanism is organized, the more probable selforganizing technological growth becomes. For example, the atomic project, landing a man on the moon and other similar projects have allowed individual countries to undergo the transition to the next technological structure without major upheavals. Unsuccessful administrative decisions in the way of technology from the initial testing to the establishment of production can degrade the system to the lower branch. The desire to save money on new technologies at any stage through the purchase of technology leads to the realization of the following scenarios: Scenario II: purchasing new technologies. New technology can be purchased at various stages of its development. The selling price of a complete innovative technology will A.I. Andreyev, … . Global innovation process: systematic approach 177 be commensurate with the profit that will be lost throughout the entire process of the upcoming cycle. At a very early stage - the technology is either in the development in open scientific community, or is either commercial or state secret. There is a mechanism to transfer technology for the middle stages of development. The developer, of course, provides diversification of export production. And there is a natural competition between the buyers in this case. Consequently, the efficiency and demographic capacity of the created jobs will inevitably be limited. Scenario III: old technologies modernization (see Fig. 6b), red branch) directly leads to the degradation, as society ceases presence on the international market of exclusive products. The same thing happens in the case of purchasing (transfering) second-hand technology from developed countries. The laws of the system will balance all the parts of an evolving system in accordance with their functions. In particular, the demographic capacity of workplaces determines the population of Greece on the basis of the function to ensure the recreational needs of Germany and France, and Russia - to ensure the function of resource flow to developing industry, China – based on the functions of a supplier of cheap consumer goods for the service of society. Figure 7. Import and Export of high tech production in EU: standard high tech equipment is used to produce more complex equipment. [Data source: Meri, 2009] What’s the price of today’s strategy for Russia? The direct task of the state is to ensure favorable conditions for the transition to the club of technologically advanced countries. Fig. 8 shows examples of bridging Japan and South Korea, and two scenarios for Russia's development. In Strategy 2020 a goal is set for Russia to undergo a transition to a club of technologically developed countries by 2020. For the candidates crisis is most favorable as, unlike developed countries, they do not need to overcome the inertia of old assets associated with the inevitable collapse of the jobs. 178 Actual Problems of Globalization Figure 8. The gap between developed and developing countries (marked with rose strip) in the level of GDP per capita. 100% is the high income OECD population weighted average. [Source: а , 2010] Conclusion Society is a step in the evolution of living systems. The basis of society is the demographic cycle of reproduction. Social sustainability is ensured with the production of liquid products that can be traded in foreign markets. The main task of the transition to a new technologic structure is to replace old jobs with new ones. Technological structures transition sets the potential for economic growth that is the population capacity of new jobs. The crisis contributes to the transition of society into one of the stable states, namely, either to the club of technologically advanced countries or in countries exporting raw materials. At the same time the price of raw materials determines the technological needs of developed countries in it (Bozhevolnov et al, 2011). Overcoming the crisis, the society settles in one of two stable states with either hightech or resource economics. The achievement of one of two scenarios is due to the succession of states of a system that allows control of the system. Taking account of the crisis created in the jobs allows to build a model of governance. Effective management of the economy of society is possible in a limited period of time. A critical control parameter is the character of the noise of commercial events, a balance of innovation and modernization. At the same time commercial result of a single event, is irrelevant to the choice of scenario. Diversion of funds to individual industries of the future mega-projects increases the risk of degradation. Achieving the target is only possible if the diversity of management is adequate to a controlled situation (Ashby's Law). Otherwise, the system-spanning regulators are bound to arise. Artificially blocking system-spanning regulators leads to the disintegration of society as a whole system. The perceived goal of management may not be more complicated than the acceptor subsystem. Otherwise the true purpose may be distorted. All other things being equal, the system will reach exactly the goal, that was received as the desired result by the acceptor. A.I. Andreyev, … . Global innovation process: systematic approach 179 The evolution of the system is inevitably going to optimize its structure. 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