“Whether or not they were right to do so, a significant number of Spanish voters assumed that the bombings in Madrid were related to the Aznar government’s support for the war in Iraq, and reacted to them by seeking to vote his
party out of office. ”
Did Terrorism Sway Spain’s Election?
CHARLES POWELL
O
ciates, Ayman Al Zawahiri, publicly referred to AlAndalus (the Arabic name given the Iberian Peninsula by its Muslim conquerors) as a promised land
that one day would revert to Islamic rule. Factors
such as its geographic proximity to North Africa,
the presence of a rapidly growing Muslim immigrant community, and the prominence often
attributed to Al-Andalus in narratives of the historical and cultural development of Islamic identity
had singled out Spain as an attractive terrorist target long before the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Nevertheless, it was the shift in Spain’s foreign policy in relation to America and Iraq that most likely
prompted Al Qaeda to target Madrid on March 11,
2004. During his first four-year term in office, Aznar
mainly trod in the footsteps of his predecessor, Felipe
González, when it came to relations with the European Union and the United States. Changes began to
occur after his reelection in March 2000, when his
Popular Party obtained an absolute majority in the
Cortes, the Spanish parliament, freeing Aznar from
having to take into account the wishes of his former
parliamentary allies. Even so, subsequent changes in
foreign policy were essentially reactive. They largely
can be attributed to the inauguration of George W.
Bush as US president in January 2001, and, more
important, to the terrorist attacks of September 11.
In response to 9-11, Aznar immediately joined
other European leaders in condemning the attacks
and offering Washington his solidarity and support.
Unlike many of his European colleagues, however,
the Spanish prime minister fully shared the Bush
administration’s diagnosis of 9-11 and its likely consequences—including the need to embark on a
global “war on terrorism” that might entail preventive use of force against rogue states. When asked to
justify his position, Aznar added a specifically Spanish dimension to the debate, pointing out that since
Madrid had often sought (and obtained) external
n March 14, 2004, three days after train
bombings in Madrid killed 192 people and
injured 1,500 others, the Spanish electorate voted out of office a government that was
thought to have performed well and had been leading in the polls.
Critics of the outgoing prime minister, José María
Aznar, blamed his unexpected defeat on his government’s attempt to pin responsibility for the bombings
on Basque separatists, in spite of strong early evidence pointing to Al Qaeda involvement. More likely,
it was the connection established by many Spanish
voters between the terrorist bombings and Aznar’s
support for the war in Iraq that proved his undoing.
SPAIN
JO IN S THE FRO N T
Were it not for the remarkable changes that
Aznar introduced in his country’s foreign policies
in the wake of his second election victory in March
2000, one would be tempted to argue that Spain
was always a likely target for Islamic fundamentalist terrorism. Indeed, Arab terrorists had been active
in the country long before the birth of Al Qaeda,
sometimes with dramatic consequences. In April
1985, militants planted a bomb in an outdoor
restaurant near Madrid frequented by US military
personnel from the nearby Torrejón air base, killing
18 people, most of them Spanish civilians. More
alarmingly, after 9-11 it was discovered that a number of terrorists directly involved in planning and
executing the attacks had visited Spain to obtain
false documents and other materials from members
of Al Qaeda’s so-called sleeper cells.
A month after the attacks in New York and
Washington, one of Osama bin Laden’s closest assoCHARLES POWELL is deputy director of the Elcano Royal Institute for International and Strategic Studies in Madrid and
author of España en Democracia, 1975–2000 (Barcelona:
Plaza y Janes, 2001).
376
Serg io Perez / Reuters
Did Terrorism Sway Spain’s Election? • 377
support in its struggle against domestic terrorism, it
2002 that they began to establish a closer personal
would be disloyal and inconsistent not to join a
rapport. Along with US Secretary of State Colin
Washington-sponsored “coalition of the willing”
Powell and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Aznar
against Al Qaeda. This was so, he insisted, even
endorsed the idea of seeking an explicit UN Security
though the United States had hitherto played a rather
Council resolution to apply renewed pressure on
modest role in the fight against ETA (Euskadi Ta
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to demonstrate
Askatasuna, or Freedom for the Basque Homeland),
compliance with UN resolutions on the destruction
the Basque separatist terrorist group. In the short
of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction.
term, Aznar’s policy resulted in Spain ’s sending troops
But Security Council Resolution 1441, finally
to Afghanistan as part of the war against the Taliban
adopted in November 2002, was subject to conand Al Qaeda, in which
flicting interpretations, and
some 20 other countries
France in particular did not
were involved, including
accept that Iraqi noncompliFrance and Germany, and
ance should automatically lead
which enjoyed the blessings
to war. Aznar for his part had
of the United Nations.
become increasingly impatient
For the longer term,
with Saddam. By late DecemAznar interpreted 9-11 as
ber he was in favor of military
the beginning of a new
action with or without a UN
post –post –cold war era—an
resolution in support. Addiera that offered fresh opportionally, Spain became a more
tunities for Spain in the
significant player in January
international arena. The
2003, when it took up a nonprime minister believed that
permanent seat in the Security
his country’s spectacular
Council. Shortly afterward,
economic growth in the
Aznar inspired the so-called
1990s, which had allowed
letter of the eight, signed by
Spain to become the eighththe prime ministers of Spain,
largest economy in the
Britain, Italy, Portugal, Dendeveloped world, entitled it
mark, Poland, Hungary, and
to play a more prominent
the Czech Republic. Published
Under Bush’s Thumb?
role in international affairs.
on January 29, 2003, in The
Bush and Aznar in t he Azores, M arch 2003
He also felt this was best
Wall Street Journal, it argued
achieved by developing a
that “the transatlantic relationcloser relationship with the United States. Furship should not fall victim to the current Iraqi
thermore, in the course of his second term, Aznar
regime’s attempts to threaten world security.”
became increasingly disillusioned with an EU that
In Spain, however, domestic opposition to war
was strong and growing. According to a poll conseemed unwilling or unable to foster serious ecoducted by the Elcano Royal Institute in February
nomic reform in Europe, that had little to offer in
2003, 64 percent of Spaniards opposed any kind of
the fight against international terrorism, and that
military intervention in Iraq, 27 percent would supfailed to come to Spain ’s assistance when Morocport it only if it enjoyed the UN’s backing, and only 2
can gendarmerie invaded the island of Perejil in the
summer of 2002 in an attempt to reclaim the uninpercent approved the use of force with or without a
habited Spanish territory.
resolution. On February 15, several million demonstrators took to the streets all over Spain to oppose
A ZN AR’ S U- TURN
war. This sentiment led Aznar to support Blair’s quest
Aznar’s closeness to the Bush administration, and
for a second UN resolution that would explicitly conhis increasingly critical view of Franco-German
demn Saddam for failing to comply with Resolution
opposition to an invasion of Iraq, gradually became
1441 and thereby pave the way for the use of force.
apparent in the course of 2002. Although the prime
Later that month Aznar joined Blair and Bush in
minister had first met the new American president
sponsoring a draft resolution, but in spite of Spain ’s
in June 2001 in Madrid, and had seen him again in
lukewarm efforts to win over fellow Security CounNovember in Washington, it was in the spring of
cil members Mexico and Chile, support fell far
378 • CURREN T HISTO RY • N ovember 2004
short of what was required. Anxious to avoid a
resounding diplomatic defeat, the three leaders
finally decided to go it alone at a meeting held
March 16, 2003, at Lajes air base in the Azores. Two
days later, US troops began the invasion of Iraq. In
the eyes of many Spaniards who opposed the war,
the photographs taken at the Azores, showing President Bush resting his hand on Aznar ’s shoulder,
came to epitomize the latter ’s foreign policy U-turn
and his subservience to the US administration.
Unlike other coalition members such as Britain,
Australia, or Poland, Spain did not send troops to Iraq
until after the fall of Baghdad, and was therefore not
involved in the invasion itself. The reasons for this
were mainly political: Aznar had initially toyed with
the idea of sending part of the Spanish fleet—including its only aircraft carrier, the Príncipe de Asturias—
to the region, but was talked out of it by senior party
officials alarmed by the approach of local and regional
elections scheduled for May 2003. With the elections
out of the way, several Spanish support vessels—
including a hospital ship —finally landed in Iraq in
July once the fighting was over, allegedly to perform
humanitarian missions. A more permanent contingent of some 1,300 Spanish troops became fully operational in September, under Polish command.
THE TERRO RISTS’
TARGET
It is telling that Spanish interests were among the
first European targets to be attacked by Islamic terrorists. Contrary to what Aznar’s government argued
at the time, there can be little doubt that a May 2003
suicide bombing attack on the Casa de Españ a social
club and restaurant in Casablanca, Morocco, in
which 45 civilians lost their lives, was intended as a
warning. Shortly after the deployment of Spanish
troops, the Arab television station Al Jazeera in
October 2003 showed a video in which Osama bin
Laden himself threatened to punish coalition members Britain, Spain, Australia, Poland, Japan, and
Italy for backing the Bush administration in Iraq.
Even more important, two months later a Norwegian academic came across a text in Arabic on
the Internet, allegedly written by a (probably
Moroccan) member of Al Qaeda, that carefully analyzed the domestic political situation in a number
of coalition states with a view to identifying the
most vulnerable. The document dedicated six pages
to Spain, which was described as Washington ’s closest European ally except Britain, and underlined the
extent of popular opposition to the government ’s
support for the war in Iraq. The text also noted that
as early as March 2003, the leader of the opposition,
José Luis Rodr íguez Zapatero, had promised to
withdraw Spanish troops should he win the next
general election, which was scheduled for March
2004. In short, Spain was the weakest link in the
coalition chain, and if the Aznar government failed
to survive a major terrorist coup, its successor
would bring Spain ’s presence in Iraq to an end.
The Norwegian researcher paid little attention to
this text until after the events of March 11. There is
no proof, furthermore, that its author was directly
involved in planning or executing the bombings that
shook Madrid that fateful morning. Nevertheless, it
shows that Islamic fundamentalists saw powerful
reasons for making the Spanish capital a terrorist target. By way of contrast, bombing London —an
option that European security services considered
more likely at the time—would not have had the
same political consequences. The Tory party, which
might have replaced Labour in office had public
opinion forced Blair to resign, was on the whole
favorable to Britain ’s presence in Iraq.
FO UR DAYS IN
M ARCH
In the weeks leading up to the general election of
March 14, 2004, most political analysts and pollsters
predicted a narrow victory for Aznar’s Popular Party.
This was never an easy election to call, mainly
because the outgoing prime minister had decided
not to stand for office, later anointing a close colleague, Mariano Rajoy, as his possible successor. Furthermore, this was to be Zapatero’s first general
election as leader of the opposition, and it was
widely felt that he was still a politician in the making. In spite of several highly publicized and potentially damaging setbacks, such as an oil spill resulting
from the sinking of the tanker Prestige off the coast
of Galicia, the government was generally deemed to
have performed reasonably well. This was particularly so in the economic sphere, where a period of
unprecedented economic growth had sent unemployment levels to an all-time low. Given that the
government had fared well in local elections held in
May 2003, at the height of the Iraq crisis, it was
widely believed that opposition to the war would not
have a major impact on the 2004 election.
Even so, government officials’ uncertainty about
the election outcome may partly explain their
behavior in response to the bombs that exploded on
three commuter trains headed for Madrid ’s Atocha
railway station on the morning of March 11. To be
fair, it is perhaps understandable that, in light of a
30-year struggle against ETA terrorism that had cost
more than 900 lives, the authorities should instinc-
Did Terrorism Sway Spain’s Election? • 379
tively attribute a major terrorist attack to the orgaby the interior minister later that evening, only
nization they knew best. Furthermore, ETA had
hours away from the opening of polling stations.
attempted to plant bombs in Madrid railway staThat same evening, authorities found a videocastions the previous Christmas, and two of its memsette near the central Madrid mosque, on which an
bers had recently been intercepted while driving
Al Qaeda spokesman claimed responsibility for the
half a ton of explosives to the capital.
bombings and justified them as punishment for the
In any case, it was immediately evident to
Spanish government ’s involvement in Iraq and
experts and laymen alike that the Popular Party
Afghanistan. By that stage feelings were running high
would probably fare better at the polls if the bombamong some of the government’s more vocal critics.
ings could be attributed to ETA, and would likely be
Many who demonstrated noisily outside Popular
punished by voters if the culprits turned out to be
Party offices throughout the country were veterans
Islamic fundamentalists, since the attacks might be
of the massive antiwar rallies held the previous year.
blamed on Aznar ’s support for the Iraq War. The
BO M BS AN D BALLO TS
outgoing government acted accordingly, remaining
As could be expected, the relationship between
steadfast in its conviction that ETA was to blame
the terrorist attacks of March 11, 2004, and the outlong after foreign intelligence experts and even
come of the elections held just three days later
journalists had come to the conclusion that Al
became a hotly contested issue. The Popular Party
Qaeda was responsible.
argued that, however narrowly, it would have won
By noon on March 11, the government knew that
had it not been for the train bombings, both
the police had discovered a van containing detonabecause of the wave of antiwar sentiment they protors, explosives, and a tape recording of Koran
voked and, more converses. Aznar, however,
troversially, because of
personally telephoned
the manner in which
editors of Spain ’s leading
Bin
Laden
did
not
win
the
Spanish
elections,
this sentiment was supnewspapers to reassure
nor was the new Socialist prime minister
posedly manipulated by
them that ETA was to
sectors of the media
blame. Later that afteranother Neville Chamberlain.
traditionally hostile to
noon, the foreign minAznar and his policies.
istry instructed Spanish
The Socialists, for their part, claimed that they would
ambassadors abroad to confirm that ETA was behind
have won the elections regardless, and that it was in
the attacks, urging them to inform the local media
any case the government’s heavy-handed attempt to
accordingly. The government even insisted that the
withhold the truth about the bombings that backUN Security Council make an explicit reference to
fired, providing hundreds of thousands of voters with
ETA in its official condemnation of the bombings, at
fresh reasons for wanting to oust the conservatives
a time when most analysts in the United States were
from office. According to one survey, 59 percent of
working on the assumption that Al Qaeda was to
respondents believed the government had misinblame, causing considerable discomfort to some of
formed the public; 30 percent denied this was true.
the senior diplomats involved.
In the March 14 balloting, the Socialists won 11
In spite of the government’s determination to pin
million votes. The Popular Party received 9.7 milthe attacks on ETA, police experts had begun to purlion. A postelection poll by the Center for Sociosue Al Qaeda-related leads almost at once. In the
logical Research found that 28 percent said the
early hours of March 12, the discovery of a bag conbombings had influenced their decision. Given that
taining explosives that had failed to detonate, with
a total of 28 million Spaniards voted, this would
a mobile telephone connected to them, seemed to
mean that the bombings affected some 7.4 million
confirm that ETA was not responsible. Yet the govpeople. In most cases, the killings simply reaffirmed
ernment did not reveal this news until that evening.
a decision to vote for the party that voters had
That night, an estimated 11 million people (out of
already thought of supporting before March 11.
a total population of 42 million) took to the streets
However, 22 percent of those who admitted having
of Spanish towns and cities to protest the bombings,
been influenced by these events—in other words,
without knowing for certain who was to blame for
some 1.6 million citizens—claimed that they had
them. Early on the afternoon of March 13, the
originally intended to abstain, but had turned out
police arrested several Moroccan citizens linked to
to vote in response to the train bombings.
the attacks, a development formally acknowledged
380 • CURREN T HISTO RY • N ovember 2004
In addition, another 13 percent of those who
claimed to have been influenced —about 1 million
voters—admitted to having changed the party of
their choice. The Center’s poll unfortunately did not
ask respondents to identify the parties affected by
this decision. However, more than 9 percent of
those who had voted Socialist cited the events of
March 11 as the main reason for doing so, while
only 1.5 percent of Popular Party voters mentioned
this. In all likelihood, the government’s handling of
the crisis was an important additional factor in
encouraging many left-leaning potential abstainers
and first-time voters to react in this manner.
While it is impossible to rule out a Socialist victory had the attacks not taken place, it is reasonable
to conclude that the killings mobilized potential
abstainers and undecided voters—resulting in a 77
percent turnout, the third-highest in Spanish voting history since the return of democracy in 1977.
Voters came out in force to punish the departing
Aznar government. This interpretation is borne out
by an Elcano Royal Institute poll carried out in May
2004, according to which 64 percent of respondents
believed that the bombings would not have taken
place had Spain not backed the United States in the
Iraq War, a causal relationship questioned by only
23 percent of those interviewed.
Strictly speaking, this conclusion was as absurd
as it would have been to claim that the US presidential election in 1980 was won by Iran ’s Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini and not Ronald Reagan, who
ran successfully against Jimmy Carter, the incumbent who came to political grief at the hands of the
Iranian revolutionary leader. What is more, given
Spain ’s considerable experience of terrorism over the
past 30 years, it was unfair to accuse public opinion
of being faint-hearted in the face of adversity, particularly if one considers the personal courage and
sang-froid displayed by ordinary citizens in the aftermath of the March 11 attacks. Given, as well, the US
administration ’s failure to establish a strong link
between Saddam ’s regime and Al Qaeda, popular
Spanish opposition to the war in Iraq could hardly
be interpreted as evidence of a lack of determination —let alone capitulation —in the struggle against
international terrorism. Bin Laden did not win the
Spanish elections, nor was the new Socialist prime
minister another Neville Chamberlain.
Whether or not they were right to do so, a significant number of Spanish voters assumed that
the bombings in Madrid were related to the Aznar
government ’s support for the war in Iraq, and
reacted to them by seeking to vote his party out of
office. The war had been perceived from the out-
THE AFTERM ATH
The events of March 2004 in Spain were subjected to close scrutiny throughout the world
because of their complex and worrying implications. In the first instance, they gave rise to an
interesting debate—about the nature of public
opinion, terrorism, and democracy—that far transcended the Spanish environment in which the
events took place. For many politicians, analysts,
and journalists in the United States (but only a
handful of their brethren in Spain and elsewhere in
Europe), the election results represented a triumph
of terrorism over democracy: an intimidated public opinion had buckled under the impact of a daring strike in the nation ’s capital; the electorate
chose the party that had promised to withdraw
troops from Iraq on the understanding that this
would radically diminish the likelihood of further
terrorist attacks. (It should be noted in this regard
that 49 percent of Spaniards, according to an
Elcano poll, believed troop withdrawal would
make Islamist attacks less likely, while 43 percent
doubted this would be the case.) According to this
view, bin Laden, rather than Zapatero, won the
Spanish elections.
A Current History
Snapshot . . .
“Never was a war so
righteous as is the war
against Germany now; never any State in the
world so clamored for punishment; but be it
remembered that Europe’s quarrel is with
Germany as a State, not with the German
people, with the system, not with the race.
The older tradition of Germany is a pacific,
civilizing tradition. The temperament of the
mass of the German people is kindly, sane,
amiable. Disaster to the German Army, if it is
unacco mpanied by such a memo rable
wrong as dismemberment or intolerable
indignity, will mean the restoration of the
greatest people of Europe to the fellowship
of the western nations.”
“The Fourth of August— Europe at War”
Current History, December 1914
H. G. Wells
Did Terrorism Sway Spain’s Election? • 381
set as unlawful, unnecessary, and illegitimate by a
The events of March 2004 in Spain also attracted
majority of Spaniards, including many Popular
interest throughout the world for other, less acaParty voters and the Catholic Church, and it is not
demic reasons. Above all, there was the immediate
surprising that the bombings sparked more votes
concern that, if Al Qaeda interpreted the Popular
for the party that had opposed the war most conParty’s defeat (and the resulting withdrawal of Spansistently. Furthermore, Zapatero’s decision to withish troops from Iraq) as a victory, terrorists might be
draw Spain ’s troops by June 30, 2004, unless the
tempted to reproduce the Madrid bombings in other
United Nations became responsible for the milicountries about to hold elections, including the
tary and political situation in Iraq (carried out earUnited States. Furthermore, although Spain ’s military
lier than initially expected and completed in May),
contribution to the pacification of Iraq was relatively
enjoyed the support of 78 percent of the populamodest, Washington feared that Zapatero’s decision
tion, according to one poll. From this point of
to withdraw troops might weaken the resolve of
view, the elections could be seen as a spectacular
other coalition members, most notably Italy and
triumph for democracy—and a salutary reminder
Poland. In fact, the evidence suggests Spain ’s impact
to democratic leaders that, even when they enjoy
on events in Iraq has always been relatively modest,
comfortable majorities in parliaments, they may
both before and after the March elections.
still pay a high political price for pursuing policies
REJO IN IN G EURO PE
strongly opposed by the vast majority of the elecEvents in Spain may, however, have modified the
torate. Consequently, though undoubtedly signifexisting balance of power within Europe away from
icant, the impact of the bombings on the elections
Atlanticists and in favor of the more “Eurocentric”
cannot be said to have diminished or undermined
nations, a cleavage that
the legitimacy of the
largely coincided with
outcome.
the separation between
The events of March
It was the shift in Spain’s foreign policy
intergovernmentalists and
2004 also triggered a
in relation to Iraq that most likely
integrationists within the
debate about the way
prompted Al Qaeda to target Madrid.
European Union. Although
foreign policy should be
in the past Spain had
conducted by Western
generally sided with the
democracies in the early
latter, and had been quite content to operate
twenty-first century. Until World War I, foreign polunder the Franco-German umbrella, Aznar had
icy had been the private domain of governments
become increasingly independent and critical of
and their diplomats. This situation began to change
the status quo during his second term in office,
in the interwar years and even more so in the afterand tended to find himself in the company of
math of World War II, which awakened elites to the
Blair and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.
importance of linkages between domestic and forThe Spanish leader was unimpressed by the Euroeign policies. Although the advent of mass media
pean Convention ’s efforts to draw up a draft con(and television in particular) forced governments
stitution for the EU, and regarded the result with
to acknowledge the importance of public opinion,
the view that foreign policy was less vulnerable to
suspicion and distaste, not least because it
scrutiny than other areas of government activity,
deprived Madrid of the institutional power in EU
supposedly because it was too complex and alien to
decision making it had been awarded by the Nice
their everyday lives for regular citizens to underTreaty in December 2000.
stand, remained current. The Iraq conflict, however,
The Zapatero government, which came to office
underlined the extent to which globalization in the
in April 2004, argued that, having pulled out of the
political and media domains was making it difficult
“Azores coalition,” Spain would be free to return
for democracies to act abroad without the consent
to its supposedly influential role at the heart of
(if not support) of their citizens. In the Spanish
Europe, acting in full agreement with France and
case, in spite of the relatively modest number of
Germany. This goal appears to have been popular
troops deployed (about 1,300) and casualties
with public opinion at large, unaccustomed as it
incurred (less than a dozen), involvement in Iraq
was to seeing Spain in the somewhat unlikely—
aroused the determined opposition of significant
and not always reliable—company of Britain.
sectors of the electorate, which the government
It soon became apparent that proposed constituignored at its peril.
tional changes to voting powers in the EU remained
382 • CURREN T HISTO RY • N ovember 2004
a point of contention. Nevertheless, France and
Germany accommodated Spain ’s demands somewhat, thereby rewarding the young Socialist leader
for having removed Spain from the Azores coalition and returned to the Eurocentric fold.
Spain has undergone very significant changes in
the past decade. Its citizens were reminded of this
somewhat abruptly when they awoke to the fact that
one in four victims of the Madrid commuter train
bombings was foreign, many of them immigrants
who had entered the country illegally. What was
recently a highly homogeneous society, both in ethnic and cultural terms, has rapidly joined the European mainstream of diversity. Indeed, one of the most
significant domestic consequences of the March
killings, which are thought to have been carried out
by Moroccans, may turn out to be an increase in
xenophobic sentiment, a trend that was already visible in recent years. (Between 1996 and 2004 the proportion of Spaniards in favor of expelling Moroccans
tripled from 7 percent to 19 percent, and that of people who would refuse to marry Moroccans rose from
39 percent to 52 percent.) Fear and rejection of Muslim fundamentalism may provide new depth and
breadth to more traditional forms of anti-Arab
racism. Also, for the first time in recent history, a
majority of ordinary citizens no longer regard ETA terrorism as the most serious threat to their security.
The longer-term consequences of the events of
March 2004 for Spain ’s role in the international
arena are not easy to predict. Many Spaniards
clearly believed that the election results would
allow a return to the more familiar relationships and
alliances of the past. According to his critics, by siding with the United States and others over Iraq,
Aznar had broken with several decades of domestic
consensus on foreign policy issues, leaving Spain
isolated and exposed. Within the EU, this departure
had led to an open confrontation with France and
Germany, something Spain could ill afford given its
continued reliance on the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy and substantial regional subsidies.
Further afield, Aznar ’s support for the Bush
administration had allegedly undermined Spain ’s
role as a bridge between Latin America and Europe,
as well as its prestige and credibility in the Arab
world. Justified or not, these views were in keeping with results of the Elcano Royal Institute poll,
according to which a majority felt that the withdrawal of troops from Iraq would improve
Madrid ’s relations with France and Germany, the
Arab world, and Latin America. Most of those
polled also believed that withdrawal from Iraq
would hurt Spain ’s relations with the United
States, but by the same token, the government ’s
decision seems to have been welcomed as a sign of
autonomy and self-respect.
A
NEW FOREIGN POLICY
Significantly, and contrary to what some had
argued in the wake of the March events, this same
survey found 74 percent of respondents in favor
of Spain ’s playing an active role internationally. A
majority of Spaniards apparently agreed with
Aznar ’s diagnosis of his country’s need to become
more of a protagonist in world events. They simply saw his way of going about it as misguided
and counterproductive.
In September 2004, Zapatero hosted a mini-summit in Madrid for President Jacques Chirac of
France and Chancellor Gerhard Schr ö der of Germany, thereby confirming Spain ’s return to more EUfriendly positions. Only weeks later, the prime
minister called for an “alliance of civilizations”
between the Western and Arab-Muslim worlds in
an address to the UN General Assembly, while at the
same time stressing his support for multilateralism
and international law. Additionally, the Spanish
leader called for the withdrawal of all foreign troops
from Iraq, a gesture that did little to improve
already badly strained relations with the Bush
administration. Taken together, these initiatives
added up to an almost complete reversal of the foreign policy priorities of his predecessor.
■