Concept Learning -- Feedback Loops

Vo l u m e ฀ 1 9 ,฀ N u m b e r ฀ 2 ฀ • ฀ Fa l l ฀ 2 0 1 0 Concept Learning—Feedback Loops Steve Wilhite, R521: Instructional Design and Development I, October 5, 2008 Introduction T he following is an instructional analysis for a lesson on the concept of feedback loops. he lesson would be part of a unit on systems thinking, intended for an entry-level economics class of students with little or no previous exposure to systems thinking principles. While the concept of feedback loops is far-reaching, with applications in numerous disciplines (as well as day-to-day living), this particular lesson will reference the current global inancial crisis to provide real-world context, thus making the lesson ideal for an economics class. Learner Analysis General Learner Characteristics Learners will typically fall in the age T H I S I S S U E AT A GLA NC E Concept฀Learning—Feedback฀Loops฀ 1 Childhood฀Obesity฀ 2 Haig฀Dynamics฀Club฀ 2 Healthy฀Chickens,฀Healthy฀Pastures฀ 8 Taking฀Stock฀of฀Unempoyment฀ 13 The฀Bathroom฀as฀a฀Source฀for฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀฀ System฀Dynamics฀Archetypes฀ 14 2010฀St&DM฀Conference฀Recap฀ 15 Dollars฀and฀Sense฀ 16 range of 18-20 years, and are assumed to have limited or no previous exposure to systems thinking principles.1 heir presence in an economics class indicates a general interest in the subject as a ield of study, and while real-world experience will be limited due to their age, general awareness of the inancial crisis gripping the nation is likely to have colored their attitudes toward economics, resulting in feelings ranging from cynicism to confusion to outright despair. Students who demonstrate apathy or a lack of awareness should be exceedingly rare given news media saturation, the upcoming presidential election, and the potential impact on their own lives as they enter the workforce and start families of their own. Some students may even have family members or friends who have been directly impacted by the crisis, perhaps losing a job or their home. Complacency, on the other hand, will be more common, and can be attributed to the confusion and hopelessness that are the only alterna1 On the off-chance that an enlightened high school teacher provided some previous exposure, students can be asked a few basic questions before instruction begins to confirm that this is a new concept for them. Students who indicate some awareness of systems thinking principles can be enlisted as helpers while the lesson is conducted to keep them engaged. tives for many people in our society. Few if any students will have any understanding of the causes of the current crisis, and mental models will be sketchy. A conceptual or analytical framework for making sense of the situation will be noticeably lacking. Entry Competencies Learners are assumed to have grade-level reading abilities and approximately tenth grade math abilities, and should be able to read and interpret a simple line graph (though actual math equations will not be performed as part of the lesson, the corresponding thinking and analytical skills will be of beneit to learners). Some prior knowledge of the current iscal crisis is not necessary, but will help provide immediacy and context for the lesson. Learners should have the physical capacity to draw basic shapes (i.e., squares, circles, arrows), to see text and diagrams on a whiteboard, and to engage in discussion with classmates and the instructor. Special Needs Accommodations for hearing or sight-impaired students can be made if they do not disrupt the class or slow it down to the point of not being able to achieve the lesson objectives in the Feedback Loops continued on page 3 Childhood Obesity EDITORIAL W e are very excited here at the CLE about two new pieces of curriculum we are introducing at the end of this year. Dollars and Sense: Stay in the Black: Saving and Spending is a personal finance curriculum emphasizing dynamics for late-elementary and middle school students. There are seven simulations in the book, as well as teacher instructions and worksheets. The simulations are on the CD that comes with the book, and also are available on the CLE website, clexchange.org. As always, although the curriculum is available for download from the website, the format of the book makes it readily accessible. Healthy Chickens, Healthy Pastures, our second venture, is actually a game, developed in conjunction with a local Audubon farm called Drumlin Farm, and Linda Booth Sweeney. This curriculum focusing on the interconnections of soil, chicken, and pasture health has been enjoyed by students from pre-school to middle school. The game is a great way to introduce ecological interconnection, and the curriculum is downloadable from the CLE website. I hope everyone can use the holiday break to refresh themselves and go into the New Year with renewed energy. Take care, Lees Stuntz stuntzln@clexchange.org A just published article, “Are parental instincts—and best intentions—contributing to Childhood Obesity?” by Prof. Tarek K.A. Hamid, may be of interest. Published on Behavioral Health Central (www.BehavioralHealthCentral.com)—the premier news, resource and interactive online community for all stakeholders in the behavioral healthcare ield—the article can be found at http://behavioralhealthcentral.com/index.php/20100401218456/Professional-Perspective/are-parental-instinctsand-best-intentionscontributingto-childhood-obesity.html Michelle Obama’s “Let’s Move” campaign to combat the obesity problem in childhood is ambitious, aiming to revamp the way American children eat and play—reshaping school lunches, playgrounds and even medical checkups. However, while all that may indeed be necessary, it may not be suicient. At home, clearing parental misconceptions is key. he article discusses a common pitfall that parents (instinctively) fall into: shiting the burden syndrome. Rather than empowering children with cognitive skills to make their own healthy nutrition choices, parents all too oten take over the decision-making responsibility on their kids’ behalf. he article discusses the negative feedback structure of the dysfunctional shiting the burden archetype, the long-term risks it poses (dysfunctional eating patterns and lifelong obesity), and how to mitigate them. he article is an excerpt from a novel new book that has been making quite a stir among the obesity/overweight community: hinking in Circles about Obesity: Applying System hinking to Obesity Problem (Springer, 2009). http://www.thinkingincirclesaboutobesity.com/ Haig Dynamics Update Yannick Ngana A ttending the K-12 Systems hinking and Dynamic Modeling conference this summer was not only a great experience but it also gave me a lot of ideas for Haig Dynamics. I was able to use the knowledge and material I gained from the conference to facilitate the teaching of systems thinking and system dynamics modeling. For example, at our irst meeting this school year, I was able to capture the interest of many new members by introducing systems thinking and system dynamics modeling through games. hese games were from the Systems hinking Playbook, which I received from Ms. Sweeney. Having been introduced to systems thinking and system dynamics through games, the members were easily able to grasp the fundamentals, which Haig Dynamics continued on page 15 2 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 Concept Learning—Feedback Loops continued from page 1 allotted time. Students lacking small motor control should be able to complete the lesson by observing other students engaging in the drawing activities. Process Used to Complete Learner Analysis One of the key assumptions of this lesson design is that the target audience is relective of society in general in its lack of awareness or understanding of systems thinking principles. Systems thinking and system dynamics are still unfortunately considered esoteric ields of study, and have yet to make serious inroads into public school curricula. In addition, the assumptions made about the target audience are informed by several years of direct observation of and interaction with students in this age range while teaching college-level freshman composition courses. To validate the assumptions about attitudes toward and knowledge of the current economic crisis, an informal survey of ive (5) subjects in the target age group was conducted using a pencil and paper survey. (Subjects were drawn from the members and advisors of the youth group at my church.) he survey included the following questions: 1. Please rate your conidence level in corporate leaders to ind solutions to the economic crisis this country is currently experiencing. (Scale from 1-5, where 1 is “Very low” and 5 is “Very high.”) 2. Please rate your conidence level in the federal government to ind solutions to the current crisis. (Scale from 1-5, where 1 is “Very low” and 5 is “Very high.”) 3. Please indicate the level to which the current crisis has directly or indirectly afected you and/or your family. (Scale from 1-5, where 1 is “Not at all” and 5 is “Deeply.”) 4. Please rate your understanding of the root causes of the current economic crisis this country is experiencing. (Question will use a scale from 1-5, where 1 is “I’m clueless” and 5 is “I saw this coming three years ago.”) 5. If you were able to develop a better understanding of the nature and causes of the current economic crisis, what impact would this have on your feelings about the crisis? (Select from three choices: I’d feel better, My feelings wouldn’t change, I’d feel worse.) Questions 1 and 2 were designed to gauge participants’ perceptions of the role corporate and government leadership has played in precipitating current economic conditions. Responses to this question have some bearing both on attitudes and on general awareness that leadership decisions and strategy can have a far-reaching inluence on systems as complex as the national economy. Question 3 was also designed with two goals in mind: to gauge how much participants feel that economic conditions afect their own lives, and to determine the likelihood of strong emotions being evoked in learners by the context chosen for the lesson. Seeing themselves as part of the larger system is critical to an understanding of the concepts taught in this lesson, while some emotional distancing will be necessary to analyze the system efectively, and in turn develop a working knowledge of systems thinking tools and principles. Question 4 was designed to assess participants’ understanding of the nature of the current economic crisis. Despite the phrasing of the question, the intention is not to determine if participants truly understand the root causes; rather, the question should provide a fairly good indication of whether the participants have a basic understanding of the main factors involved in the crisis, such as bad mortgages, failing inancial institutions, and government bailouts. If present before instruction begins, this basic understanding will decrease the amount of time that needs to be spent setting up the background context for the lesson. he purpose of question 5 was twofold: 1) responses should be a good indicator of current attitudes towards the economic crisis, and 2) responses will feed into the needs analysis, hopefully conirming an expressed need for instruction in a systematic method for developing an understanding of current economic conditions. Survey results 1 2 3 Question 1: 4 Question 2: 4 1 Question 3: 1 1 2 Question 4: 1 1 2 Question 5: 4 5 1 1 1 3 said they’d feel better, 2 said their feelings wouldn’t change. Feedback Loops continued on page 4 3 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 Concept Learning—Feedback Loops continued from page 3 Interpretation of results Questions 1 and 2 show a clear lack of conidence in both corporate and government leaders to solve the current crisis. he responses to question 3 are not surprising given the young age of the respondents (all were in the 16-18 year age range), but they do indicate at least a nascent awareness of the economic diiculties the country is currently undergoing and its potential impact on their lives. Question 4 indicates that the majority of the respondents have spent some time observing and possibly thinking about the crisis. Question 5 has a majority of the respondents indicating a desire to develop a better understanding of the crisis. Task Analysis Upon completion of this lesson, learners should be able to represent graphically and in narrative form the feedback loop or loops that underlie the systemic failures that resulted in the current inancial meltdown in this country. hey should be able to accomplish this using common systems thinking terminology and concepts. In doing so, they will demonstrate the following abilities: 1. Discuss the deinition of “mental model” and identify ways in which their mental models may be skewed somewhat from reality. • A stock of high-risk loans held by lending companies • An outlow of high-risk loans being bought up by investment irms, packaged as mortgagebacked securities and sold on the secondary market • Home prices shown as a stock with the change in price as both the inlow and outlow, and a connector showing its inluence on loan originations • A connector between the outlow and the inlow of high-risk loans indicating the inluence of the outlow rate on originations • A connector between the high-risk loan inlow and the change in price low indicating the inluence of the inlow rate on home prices • A stock of written-of loans accumulating from the outlow of loans in default from the high-risk loans stock • A connector showing the inluence of written-of loans on the outlow of mortgage-backed securities 4. Describe/trace the reinforcing feedback loop that goes some- thing like this: • As long as the demand for high-risk loans on the secondary market remains high, originations of these loans is high, which in turn drives up home prices, increasing the demand for nontraditional (high risk) loans. • When the demand for high-risk loans on the secondary market decreases (possibly due to exogenous factors such as increased regulatory scrutiny or endogenous factors such as increasing awareness of highrisk exposure), originations of high-risk loans will also decrease, which in turn brings home prices down to less inlated levels. • he decrease in demand for high-risk loans, combined with the high-risk exposure caused by the accumulation of high-risk loans in their portfolios, causes lenders to tighten their credit standards, decreasing the number of potential home buyers and driving home prices even lower. • Decreasing property values increases the number of high- 2. Distinguish between linear and non-linear (closed-loop) causal relationships. 3. While the subprime mortgage crisis is described by the instructor in narrative form, draw and label a basic stock and low diagram containing the following elements: • An inlow of high-risk loans into the system via loan originators Figure 1: Stock and low diagram representing the conditions leading to the current inancial crisis. 4 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 risk loans going into default due to the rate resets and negative amortization associated with these loans, eventually causing the secondary market to completely dry up. • Lather, rinse and repeat until the inancial market collapses under its own dead weight. Identiication of Experts It was necessary to consult experts in two diferent ields during the preparation of this lesson: inance and systems thinking. Financial expertise was not hard to come by on the Web, with respected sites such as Forbes. com, BusinessWeek, the London Financial Times and others providing exhaustive news and editorial coverage of current inancial conditions. My own experience as an instructional designer and manager within the Home Loans division at Washington Mutual provided me with additional insights. Systems thinking expertise was provided by the late Dr. Barry Richmond, who personally provided me with my irst instruction in systems thinking eight years ago, and whose book, An Introduction to Systems hinking (2000), was an invaluable resource. Before his death, Dr. Richmond was considered one of the preeminent authorities on systems thinking, especially in its business applications. How Accuracy of Content Was Conirmed Two methods were used to conirm the accuracy of the instructional content: 1. Authoritative books and articles were consulted. 2. System dynamics modeling sotware applications (ihink and Vensim) were used to create the stock and low and causal loop diagrams included in this design document. While this does not guarantee the accuracy of the content, some error-checking of model structures is an automatic feature that came into play several times during the design of the lesson. Before production begins, the designer intends to submit the causal loop portions of the lesson to at least one expert in the systems thinking ield for feedback. While it is not unlikely that some of the diagrams and models will be modiied as a result of this feedback, the structure and context of the lesson should remain unchanged. Process Used to Complete Task Analysis To complete the task analysis I personally went through the exercise of modeling the system in a sotware application called ihink which was speciically designed for this type of activity. In doing so, I continually challenged my own assumptions about the system, mentally overlaying the model on the real-world system. hrough several iterations, and making numerous modiications, I brought it as close to reality as possible without making it overly complex. Since the learners will not be using the sotware for this lesson, I deliberately avoided using the math features of ihink and stuck to the visualization features, which can be emulated with paper and pencil or whiteboard and marker. I also reread much of the Barry Richmond book to reacquaint myself with some of the more technical aspects of the ield, to refresh my vocabulary and to compare the examples in the book with the one I was creating for this lesson. Context Analysis Needs Analysis he concept of feedback loops is diicult to master, and the subordinate concepts and intrinsic skills it encompasses are equally diicult. he common emphasis in K-12 education on the rote learning of facts and igures complicates matters, as does our societal inclination to focus on the individual and on the here and now as opposed to long-term efects and the behaviors of systems. his lack of training and enculturation in closed-loop (vis-à-vis linear) thinking results in individuals who lack the ability to analyze and interpret the behavior of systems in the world around them (Plate, 2008). More importantly, students lack the empowerment of being able to apply systems thinking concepts to problems they encounter in their own lives. he disillusionment or hopelessness that is frequently felt by individuals faced with problems they have no way of understanding is a felt need that will be addressed in this lesson. Whether the problems are large in scale (e.g., economic crises, global warming, social issues) or small in scale (e.g., weight management, time management, relationship issues), being able to visualize the dynamic, systemic relationships inherent to each problem is an important irst step in taking action to solve them (Lyneis, Stuntz, & Richardson, 2003). College students in particular, whose ields of study will most likely deal with systems on some level, will beneit greatly from an understanding of the concept of feedback loops. In this context, closed-loop thinking can be thought of as an additional weapon in students’ critical and analytical thinking arsenal. Feedback Loops continued on page 6 5 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 Concept Learning—Feedback Loops continued from page 5 Instructional Context his lesson will be taught as the ith and penultimate lesson during a systems thinking unit in an entry-level course in economics. As designed, it should be conducted in a small classroom setting (rather than a lecture hall), though with some modiications it could possibly be adapted to a distance education format. Since the lesson is fairly self-contained, it could probably also be adapted to entry-level classes in other disciplines, such as business administration, ethics/philosophy, sociology, psychology or history. While systems thinking is highly relevant to the physical sciences, the topic of this lesson would limit its efectiveness in these settings. It is not assumed that the instructor will have a background in systems thinking; therefore, part of his or her preparation for teaching this lesson might be some background reading to become acquainted with the ield. he System Dynamics Society website and Pegasus Communications (also see this page) ofer excellent free resources that provide a good introduction to the ield and are easy to understand. he lesson will take approximately two hours to teach; however, the two hours can be broken up into smaller segments without hindering the lesson objectives. Ample thought, however, should be given to the unit’s placement within the larger course. Ideally, the concepts taught during the unit will be reinforced throughout the remainder of the course by applying Lesson 1: What is systems thinking? Lesson 2: Mental models them to new topics as they are covered. Activities similar to those described in this design document can be conducted using other topics, or informal discussions can be stimulated that apply questions and techniques introduced in this lesson. he diagram in Figure 2 illustrates how the lesson on feedback loops will be situated within the larger systems thinking unit. he concept map in Figure 3 shows the conceptual relationships of feedback loops within the systems thinking ield. Transfer Context As described above, the concepts learned in this lesson have the potential to be applied in many areas of students’ lives and have a signiicant long-term impact on their world view. Near-term transference can be realized by continually revisiting the concepts and applying the skills as new topics are introduced in the course. As students start to take more advanced courses in their ields of study, and if they have suiciently internalized the concepts and skills, they will begin to recognize patterns of archetypal systemic behaviors in virtually any system they encounter. hough logistical problems prevent its inclusion in the evaluation plan for this lesson, it would be interesting to interview students 3-4 years ater completing instruction to determine how much of a long-term impact the lesson has had on their world view, and how much it has inluenced their further studies. Lesson 3: Behavior over time and space Lesson 4: Stocks and lows Process Used to Complete Context Analysis he needs analysis is largely based on observations and anecdotal evidence acquired during several years of teaching college courses in English composition. Especially in advanced composition classes, where critical analysis and persuasive writing are emphasized, I encountered with high frequency students who displayed an inability or unwillingness to perform even a rudimentary analysis of research topics, readings or discussion topics. More recently, question #5 in the survey described above elicited responses that (hopefully) conirmed an expressed need for instruction in a systematic method of analyzing economic conditions to understand them better. he instructional and transfer context is the result of a deliberate attempt to build as much lexibility as possible into the lesson. I wanted to avoid technical and logistical limitations, as well as potential conlicts with existing curricula and/or surrounding instruction, while still providing some options for integrating the unit into the larger course of instruction through informal transference activities. Objectives of Instruction Overall Goal of Instruction Upon completion of this lesson, learners will be able to recognize a feedback loop in a system, discriminate whether it is a counteracting or reinforcing loop, and portray the Lesson 5: Feedback Loops Figure 2: Systems thinking unit low 6 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 Lesson 6: Putting it all together Figure 3: Systems thinking concept map feedback loop both visually and verbally. his tool will help them correct their own mental models, and make predictions about the behavior of a system over time. hough an admittedly loty goal, this lesson has the potential to alter their world view, opening up solutions to problems that before seemed insurmountable. Speciic objectives • Given a causal relationship such as that of luctuating home prices and the demand for high-risk loans, the learner will illustrate in a simple causal loop diagram the closed-loop dynamics of this relationship, thus showing the inadequacy of linear cause and efect in explaining the relationship. • Given a series of stock and low diagrams each containing a feedback loop, the learner will identify which ones represent a reinforcing feedback loop, and which ones represent a counteracting feedback loop, with 80% accuracy. • Given a narrative description of the feedback dynamics present in a system, the learner will draw a stock and low diagram that accurately represents that system. • Given a dynamic system such as the subprime mortgage business, the learner will apply the concept of feedback loops to explore and expose laws in his or her mental model, making explicit the role that assumptions about reality play in all mental models. Testing/evaluation plans What is to be evaluated Learners will primarily be evaluated on the level to which they have grasped the concept of feedback loops in a dynamic system. Learners should be able to discriminate between reinforcing and counteracting (balancing) feedback loops (classiicatory attainment), and apply the concept of feedback loops in order to correct and/or validate their own mental models of (or misconceptions about) a system’s dynamics (formal attainment) (Klausmeier, 1990, p. 103). he instructor will assess their ability to Feedback Loops continued on page 8 7 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 Concept Learning—Feedback Loops continued from page 7 demonstrate this both graphically and verbally in such a way that it clearly communicates their understanding to another person. Evaluation Strategy Since verbal articulation is one of the primary objects of evaluation, I have selected participation in class discussions as one of two evaluation methods to be used for this lesson. Discussion is an essential component in the instruction, and learners’ participation in both small group and class discussions is an easily observed, highly transparent indicator of how much they “get it.” Learners should be evaluated less on the quantity of their participation, and more on quality. he second, more formal method of evaluation will be an in-class activity in which students will be read a somewhat simpliied narrative account of the events leading up to the nation’s current inancial crisis. As the narrative is read, students will individually draw and label a stock/low diagram that depicts the systemic behaviors described in the narrative, especially any feedback loops. Neatness should not be a factor in evaluating students’ performance. Rather, students should be evaluated on their grasp of the feedback loop sub-classes (reinforcing and counteracting loops) and how feedback loops relate to the superordinate concept of a dynamic system. How feedback is to be provided to the learner During instruction, verbal feedback (both corrective and reinforcing) will be provided by the instructor directly to learners who speak up during class discussions, and also during the drawing and small group activities. Sensitivity should be used in providing verbal feedback to avoid feelings of inequity in the classroom that might demotivate some students and hypermotivate others. Feedback on the stock and low diagram can be provided either in writing or orally (or both), depending on the preferences of the instructor and the needs of the learner. his feedback should refer back to the rubric to provide the learner with a tangible point of reference for interpreting the instructor’s comments. Practice activities What is to be practiced 1. Recognizing and articulating the feedback dynamics present in a system 2. Distinguishing between reinforcing and counteracting feedback loops 3. Relating speciic types of feedback loops to the typical behavior-over-time (BOT) graph patterns they generate 4. Representing feedback loops in simple stock and low diagrams Strategies for how practice will occur Type of Activity Ind./Group/Class Approx. Time 1 Socratic discussion Class 20 minutes 2 Worksheet completed in class, followed by class debrief Individual/Class 15 minutes 3 Small group discussion, followed by class debrief Group/Class 15 minutes 4 Small group discussion, followed by class debrief Group/class 20 minutes NEW from the CLE!! Healthy Chickens, Healthy Pastures For more information and to order, go to clexchange.org Healthy Chickens, Healthy Pastures Making Connections at Drumlin Farm and Beyond 8 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 Description of practice activities 1 Description of Practice Activity (See Appendix B for samples) Relationship to Objective(s) This activity will rely on the instructor using the Socratic method to draw students into a discussion exposing the feedback dynamics present in many common, everyday relationships. Students will be asked a series of open questions to get them thinking and talking about the importance of feedback in a dynamic system. These questions can be written on the board before class to “get students’ wheels turning” before the discussion begins. For example: This activity is designed to stimulate thought about the nature of feedback dynamics in systems. This should start the process of helping students recognize the inadequacies of linear causality in explaining the behavior of systems. a. Why do arguments tend to lare up and get out of control? b. What keeps our core body temperature constant despite luctuations in the weather? c. What are some reasons that a child who is scolded often for misbehaving might act out even more often and in worse ways? d. What are some reasons that addictive behavior – drug use, overeating, gambling, spending money, etc. – is so dificult to cease? e. What prevents people who are not prone to addictive behavior from overindulging? f. Why does trafic take so long to recover after an accident has been cleared from the highway? 2 Students will be given a list of several feedback loops and instructed to label each one with an “R” for reinforcing, or a “C” for counteracting. After several minutes of performing this activity individually at their desks, the instructor will lead students toward a consensus on the correct answers during a class discussion. This activity will help students distinguish between the two sub-classes of feedback loops, which will bring them closer to a classiicatory attainment of the concept. 3 Students will be broken up into small groups (3-4 in each). Each group will be given one of the BOT graphs shown below. The groups will decide whether the graph depicts a reinforcing or a counteracting feedback loop, and then report back to the class with an explanation of their indings. An intrinsic attribute of feedback loops is that they represent behaviors that occur dynamically over time and space. This activity will promote the attainment of this attribute, and further reinforce the distinction between the two subclasses of feedback loops. Clockwise from the upper right, the graphs shown here represent a reinforcing loop with an increasing stock, a counteracting loop with a delay, a reinforcing loop with a decreasing stock, and a counteracting (balancing) loop. 4 A series of 3-4 brief narrative descriptions of feedback loops will be read to the class in sequence (see Appendix B for samples). Students will work in their groups to draw a stock and low diagram representing each of the narratives on large post-it sheets. When they are inished, they will post their sheets on the walls of the classroom. When all of the groups’ diagrams have been posted, the class will critique each one. The goal of this activity is not to create perfectly accurate representations of the systems in question. Rather, students should be able to demonstrate that they have grasped the relationship between stocks and lows and feedback loops within the systems thinking concept model. Feedback Loops continued on page 10 9 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 Concept Learning—Feedback Loops continued from page 9 How feedback is to be provided to learners As students collectively provide a simple list of answers to each question, the instructor should lead the class towards a narrative description of the feedback loop(s) involved in each system. For example, an answer given to the traic question might be “lingering brake lights and congestion.” his can be rephrased in narrative form to go something like this: “he sight of brake lights in front of them causes people to apply their own brakes, creating a continuous chain reaction that wanes only when the length of time drivers apply their brakes gradually decreases as they more quickly realize that traic is not stopping in front of them.” When the class reconvenes, the instructor will go through each example one at a time, asking for a show of hands to ind out how students labeled each example. In each case, students who were in the minority will be asked to justify their response. Whether the minority or the majority labeled the example incorrectly, the instructor will gently point out the misconception(s) that led to the mislabeling, and through further discussion will ensure that students can articulate the true nature of the feedback loop before moving on to the next example. Feedback will be provided by the instructor to each group verbally during the class debrief. his public feedback can be supplemented by semi-private feedback provided to each group during the activity as the instructor observes their discussions. Again, verbal feedback will be provided to each group during the class debrief. Care should be taken while providing feedback during this activity to avoid critiquing the drawing skills or neatness of each group’s diagrams. he proper labeling of each element and the direction of the lows are the key components to be evaluated, and even these may contain minor mistakes without drawing corrective feedback. As long as each group appears to grasp the key concepts, and is able to explain the rationale behind their diagrams, their work should be considered more than adequate. Examples and Non-examples of the Concept Examples and non-examples to illustrate diferences between linear causality and closed-loop causality: Examples Non-examples Simple reinforcing feedback loop that shows lack of sleep increasing stress level, which in turn causes the person to lose sleep in a never-ending cycle. Laundry list of items that might increase stress levels in a person. Does not show interrelationships or feedback loops. Causal loop diagram shows the counteracting and reinforcing feedback loops inluencing the volume of work to be done. Overtime increases the amount of work accomplished, but also increases fatigue, which in turn decreases quality of work and increases rework. Laundry list of items contributing to workload doesn’t show interrelationships between the parts of the system. 10 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 Examples Non-examples Stock and low diagram shows the reinforcing feedback loop present in the discovering of rework adding to the work to be done, which in turn increases the likelihood of work being done incorrectly. Stock and low diagram is a gross over-simpliication of the system illustrated in the correct example. It implies that all work lowing out of WorkToDo ends up in the Undiscovered Rework stock, which obviously isn’t true. Diagram shows reinforcing and counter-acting feedback loops at work in the mortgage crisis, as well as the inherent delays. Diagram does not show the feedback dynamics present in the system. not in time to avert disaster for some of them? Introductory presentation of instruction How context for instruction will be set Setting the context for instruction will simply be a matter of recalling the changing inancial conditions in our country over the last two years or so, at a high level. A series of questions such as the following might be asked: • Why do conditions seem to be getting worse and worse? • Why didn’t the company executives and the government see this coming? • Why did changes in lending practices at inancial institutions not reverse the predicament they had created for themselves, at least • Why is the mortgage crisis having such a far-reaching efect on so many areas of the economy? he idea behind the questions is not to elicit correct answers, but to get learners thinking about their current mental models related to the economy. Prerequisites needed for instruction Based on the placement of this lesson within the systems thinking unit described above, learners should have a basic understanding of the following systems thinking concepts: • Dynamic systems • Behavior over time graphs • Stocks and lows To help set the context for the lesson, learners will also be expected to have some cursory knowledge of the current mortgage crisis. his can be facilitated by having students read an article about the mortgage crisis as homework the night before the lesson. Wikipedia has a detailed article on the crisis; a radio show aired on NPR that explains the crisis; Accordion Guy has an interesting treatment complete with comic strips; and the New York Times has a good, brief article. Key terms, acronyms, other information needed to facilitate instructional experience Stocks and lows, mental model, BOT (behavior over time) graph, causal loop diagram, reinforcing Feedback Loops continued on page 12 11 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 Concept Learning—Feedback Loops continued from page 11 feedback loop, counteracting (or balancing) feedback loop, high-risk (subprime) loans, mortgage-backed securities, secondary market, loan default, written-of loans. First look at objectives to be achieved and skills, knowledge to be learned he objectives for this lesson will be presented immediately ater the context is set during the opening discussion. Essentially, the objectives will be phrased in such a way that it will be made clear that if only the corporate CEO’s knew how to perform these tasks, they may not have gotten us into the ix we’re in now. Motivational strategies to be used in instruction Two primary strategies will be used to motivate learners: 1. Learners will be shown the ineicacies in using linear causality and compartmentalized thinking to explain the events in our lives and solve problems. hey will also be shown how an inability to use causal loop thinking could very well be at the root of our current inancial crisis. In both cases, the relevance to learners’ own lives will be emphasized, and satisfaction will be derived from knowing that they are learning how to do something that has the potential to avert catastrophe, create solutions to problems, and have a positive impact on their lives at both a personal and social level. 2. An attempt will be made to show how systems thinking, and feedback loops in particular, tie into some of our most pressing global issues, including politics and diplomacy, global warming, health issues, animal extinctions, etc. Indeed, the inal lesson of this unit will have students engage in an online global warming simulation that was built using systems thinking concepts and principles. his strategy will be instrumental in building conidence in this approach to systems analysis and problem-solving. Both of these strategies will be interwoven throughout the lesson rather than making them an explicit part of instruction. Basic plans for instructor materials his lesson was deliberately designed to be low-tech. A typical classroom with whiteboard or blackboard and walls for posting group work are all that are required for the conduct of the lesson. he instructor should have no diiculty drawing the simple diagrams that will be presented as examples; however, since sequential slides will not be provided, care should be taken by the instructor to avoid clutter on the white or blackboard. A disorganized appearance of the diagrams on the board could easily lead to confusion among students. In fact, it would be better to erase the board ater students have been given an opportunity to copy the diagrams into their notebooks, rather than having numerous diagrams visible on the board simultaneously. Student materials will be limited to the handouts required for practice activity #2 and #3. he instructor’s lesson plan will contain an instructor version of each of these handouts. To provide additional support for instructors who are not conversant in systems thinking concepts, detailed pacing information and plenty of examples will also be provided in the lesson plan. While the instructor is encouraged to incorporate personal experiences and her own examples into the lesson, at no point will the lesson plan require the instructor to do so. Since the lesson is targeted at young adults, leaving them completely in the dark as to the instructional strategies and tactics that will be used would be counter-productive. Ater the initial context-building discussion, the instructor should inform students that some group work will be involved in the lesson, as well as some light drawing. To avert the anxiety that oten accompanies both of these activities, students should be reassured that neither the drawing nor the goals of the group activities will be overly complex. REFERENCES Klausmeier, H. (1990). Conceptualizing. In B. Jones, & L. Idol (Eds.), Dimensions of thinking and cognitive instruction: Implications for educational reform (pp. 93-138). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum Associates. Lyneis, D., Stuntz, L., & Richardson, G. (2003). The Future of System Dynamics and Learner-centered Learning in K-12 Education, Part I. Creative Learning Exchange Newsletter , 12 (1). Plate, R. (2008). Attracting Institutional Support through Better Assessment of Systems Thinking. The Creative Learning Exchange Newsletter , 17 (3), 1-8. Richmond, B. (2000). An Introduction to Systems Thinking. Hanover, NH: High Performance Systems, Inc. Editors note: his article is from a project Steve Wilhite completed a couple of years ago for a class in his instructional systems technology program. I think it is just the sort of paper which needs to be circulated for others to see his careful design and reasoning. he complete paper, with appendices, is available on the CLE website. 12 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 Taking Stock of Unempoyment from Leverage Points 119, March 2010 by David Packer In the language of system structure, there are two basic ideas: stocks and lows. Flows are like water in a pipe, measured in units per time intervals, like gallons per minute. Stocks are where the lows go and from whence they come, like bathtubs. Stocks are accumulations of things, with inlows and outlows. he only way to change stocks—to ill them or drain them—is by changing lows in or out. Because of the diiculty most people have seeing how stocks will behave given variations of inlows and outlows, stocks provide the biggest challenges in comprehending the behavior of our social and physical systems. hey are hard to change, because they are oten so large relative to the size of the lows. hink how long it takes to fully ill your bathtub, a swimming pool, an oil tanker. hink how long it takes for the CO2 in the atmosphere to drain away, even if the input is cut to nothing. And think about the bathtub full of the unemployed in the U.S., which haunts us now. his is a very large stock of millions of people, about 10 percent of the workforce. Each month, a substantial inlow of new people join the stock, as individuals lose their jobs or come of working age; another substantial outlow of people get jobs, give up their job searches, compromise, die, and the like. As long as these lows are about the same, the stock of the unemployed remains unchanged, which it has for a while. Without going into numbers (which you can do as an exercise), it is clear that bringing down the stock, even assuming robust job creation, will take more than a handful of years. seem easy to do in the short run (like before the next elections). Another question is how we got into this particular pickle so suddenly. One way to think of the situation is to look back a couple of years, when we were in seemingly happier times, and envision two bathtubs. One is the stock of unemployed then, a normal few percent of the workforce. he other is the stock of people employed in the bubble businesses—devising new inancial instruments, marketing creative mortgages, designing and building houses and oices inanced by those creative endeavors— and in businesses based on the added spending of those in the bubble industries. Now visualize the burst of the bubble. When bubbles burst, explosive lows emerge, and the stocks into which they low rise rapidly. Over a short time period, the bathtub of bubble employees lowed at amazing speed into the unemployed bathtub, more than doubling its count. As we know, unemployment soared. So we are let with a dangerously out-of-balance system. Hoping for new bubbles to absorb the excess unemployed is absurd. he normal, responsible processes of increasing outlows and reducing inlows take real time. Just recognizing the structure in which we have trapped ourselves, by visualizing the stocks and lows, is a irst step toward health. It provides a perspective, a lens that increases the urgency for actions to change the lows and an anchor that protects us from false expectations of a quick-ix rosy future. And maybe, just maybe, there is also a low into a stock of learning that will serve us well. David W. Packer is founding partner of the Systems Thinking Collaborative, a veteran of the MIT System Dynamics Group and of Digital Equipment Corporation, and on a variety of boards. He and spouse Ginny have parented ive and are now grandparents to twelve. And he is a Red Sox fan, among other things. Because people don’t generally understand the length of time required to reduce a bloated stock, the political risk is also great. Beware, President Obama, of any rhetoric or commitments that make the task of draining this stock 13 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 he Bathroom as a Source for System Dynamics Archetypes Geoff Dean, Kwantlen Polytechnic University really couldn’t resist putting the attached mini-article together, regarding using the shower as an example of delays in systems. Has someone already written up this idea? (I probably didn’t show my tongue in my cheek nearly well enough in it. And, more seriously, I’m not sure that the diagram of the shower is strictly correct, in terms of consistent units, etc.) I (Of course, feedback may be present in the bathtub system also, if someone is there to adjust the water low in response to the level of water. With the toilet, the feedback arises from the loat in the tank. Note also that the water is lushed out in a pulse, not linearly like the water low out of the bathtub. ) In teaching system dynamics, it’s crucial that we have examples that are down to earth, examples that come from situations that our students will know about concretely, in their day-to-day lives. he bathroom provides us with three examples that illustrate all of the basic concepts of system dynamics. Another fundamental concept in modelling systems is the delay that is oten found in feedback loops. I was delighted to realize, while taking a shower, that the shower provides an excellent, concrete example of delay. As we all know, the temperature of the water doesn’t change instantaneously when we adjust the low of hot water; there’s a delay. And in reacting to that, we may ind that the delay causes us to make the actual water temperature oscillate around the temperature we’re aiming to reach. Probably the most common example used in explaining system dynamics is the bathtub. he bathtub illustrates well one of the most fundamental ideas of system dynamics – that the quantities in a system can be classiied as either stocks or lows, and that the level of a stock is determined by the net low into it. cold water flow The Bathtub: stock and flows water flow in (delay symbol) Bathtub water level water flow out hot water flow Shower water temperature desired water temperature At this year’s CLE conference at Babson, I learned that the toilet provides another useful example – it illustrates another fundamental concept of system dynamics: feedback. The Toilet: feedback toilet water flow in The Shower: delays in response Toilet tank water level While I don’t want to bring the study of system dynamics down to the level of potty humour, I do want to ensure that the examples we use to illustrate the powerful concepts are, at least at irst, examples that all of our students can relate to. And, at least in the developed world, all of our students have had lots of experience with these examples. water flushed out desired water level 14 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 Systems hinking and Dynamic Modeling Conference 2010 T he ninth ST/DM conference was a stimulating gathering of educators, system dynamics professionals, and interested citizens. We were happy to see many returning participants as well as many new ones. he atmosphere created as friends meet is warm and lively and induces inclusiveness as they intermingle with welcome new faces. he keynote addresses this year were exceptional, and all quite diferent. Andrew Jones lead us through some real-world uses of system dynamics, from health care to creating the leading international climate change model. It was wonderful to have Drew with us contributing to the K-12 community as he did almost 20 years ago, when he wrote the irst piece of curriculum the CLE had available to distribute. (Yes, that was before everything was online!) Drew was followed by Ken Kay who gave us insight into the 21st Century skills movement in education. Ken also teamed up with Peter Senge to lead a discussion of the intersection of systems thinking and 21st Century skills. Needless to say, the connections are myriad. Our last keynote, presented by Jim Hines, showed us where the best and most efective use of system dynamics thinking and modeling is taking place within education. he slides from his presentation (as well as all the others!) are well worth a second look. Our keynote speakers are central to the success of the conference, and we are delighted to have had such well-respected and charismatic individuals share their time and expertise with all of us. hese keynotes were set amid a conference illed with practical learning sessions, skill-building, and discussions with professional educators and system dynamicists about the interface between K-12 education and system dynamics. We thank all the wonderful session presenters. he learning opportunities were abundant, and the chance to talk with all the wonderful people was a highlight of the meeting. he Powerpoint presentations and outlines from most of the sessions from the conference are on the CLE website at: http://www.clexchange.org/ conference/cle_2010conference.html hey are well worth perusing, whether or not you were able to participate in this year’s conference. Haig Dynamics Continued from page 2 then led them to see the importance and advantages of thinking in systems. hey were so amazed and intrigued that they urged me to have weekly meetings rather than the biweekly ones we had last year. As a group we’ve gone through analyzing models, graphing behaviour-over-time graphs from these models, gone through the steps to creating models, and, just recently, each member was able to create his/ her own model. his is very good news as I am now not the only one who can create a model... Ater the irst few meetings of me going over systems thinking and system dynamics, we went into analyzing models and what the arrows and boxes all mean. We then moved onto graphing the behaviour-over-time graphs of the models we analyzed. For two of these sessions I was able to use material from Mr. Dennis Meadows’s presentation at the conference, which I attended. We looked at his models of addiction and adaption and then graphed their behaviour over time. We then looked into more models that looked at various other subjects. his was then followed by going over the steps to creating a model. Immediately following these sessions, I gave our members a couple articles that talked about factors that afect overall health. Ater they read and analyzed the articles, they found archetypes and were then able to construct causal loop diagrams. And, just recently, we were able to construct a “makeshit” model from all our indings and causal loop diagrams. In our next meeting we will be looking to reine it as well as test it in order to check for accuracy. On another note, Haig Dynamics is also planning to host a System Dynamics Conference in the spring. We are still working out details and would welcome suggestions. hanks again for the great experience I gained from the conference. Yannick Ngana Haig Dynamics President/Founder Earl Haig Secondary School Toronto, Ontario, Canada email: systemdynamics@earlhaig.ca 15 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010 New Finance Curriculum Book Dollars and Sense: Stay in the Black: Saving and Spending is a personal finance curriculum emphasizing system dynamics for late-elementary and middle school students. There are seven simulations in the book, as well as teacher instructions and worksheets. A CD comes with the book. Cost is $23.00, $22.00 each for 5 or more. For more information and to order, visit clexchange.org Interested In Investing? I f you would like to invest in our efort here at he Creative Learning Exchange, your contribution would be appreciated. You may donate any amount you wish; perhaps $50.00 is a reasonable amount for a year. All contributions are tax-deductible. Newsletter Subscription Information The Creative Learning Exchange newsletter is available in three different formats: •฀ On฀the฀website฀at฀ www.clexchange.org •฀ As฀an฀attachment฀to฀an฀email •฀ In฀paper฀format฀via฀US฀mail฀ ($15.00฀outside฀the฀USA) Since we vastly prefer electronic distribution to paper because it is so much less expensive, please email us at any time when you would like to have an electronic subscription. milleras@clexchange.org The Creative Learning Exchange 27 Central Street Acton, MA 01720 Phone 978-635-9797 Fax 978-635-3737 www.clexchange.org Trustees Jay W. Forrester James H. Hines Davida Fox-Melanson George P. Richardson Stephen C. Stuntz Enclosed is _________________ to he Creative Learning Exchange to help invest in the future of K-12 systems education. Name_____________________________________________________ Executive Director Lees N. Stuntz stuntzln@clexchange.org Address___________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________ E-mail_____________________________________________________ Thank you! he Creative Learning Exchange, 27 Central Street, acton, Ma 01720 The Creative Learning Exchange is a trust devoted to encouraging exchanges to help people to learn through discovery. It is a non-profit educational institution and all contributions to it are tax deductible. 16 C re at ive L e ar ning E xchange • Fa l l 2010