Canadian support vessel construction milestone

ISSN 2446-7014 YEAR 6 • No 109 • JANUARY 30th, 2020 The Boletim Geocorrente is a fortnightly publication of the Conjuncture Assessment Group (NAC), linked to the Research and Post-Graduation Superintendency (SPP) at the Naval War College (EGN). NAC follows the International Conjuncture under the theoretical view of Geopolitics, in order to provide an alternative for the global demand for information, making it accessible and integrating society into defense and security issues. Moreover, it disseminates updated knowledge of international conflicts and crises to meet the Naval Staff’s demands. The Boletim Geocorrente aims to publish short articles concerning current issues about ten macro-regions in the globe: South America, North and Central America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and North Africa, Europe, Russia and former USSR, South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania, Arctic and Antarctica. Furthermore, some editions feature the “Special Topics” section. 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Pasteur, 480 - Praia Vermelha – Urca - Postal Code: 22290-255 - Rio de Janeiro/RJ - Brazil PHONE: +55 (21) 2546-9394 | E-mail: geocorrentenac@gmail.com This and other editions of BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE, in portuguese and english, can be found at: <https://www.marinha.mil.br/egn/boletim_geocorrente> BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE RESEARCH AND POST-GRADUATION SUPERINTENDENCY CONJUNCTURE ASSESSMENT GROUP BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE'S DIRECTOR EDITORIAL BOARD ReaR admiRal edgaR luiz SiqueiRa BaRBoSa EDITOR-IN-CHIEF BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE captain (Retd) leonaRdo FaRia de mattoS (egn) RESEARCH AND POST-GRADUATION SUPERINTENDENT OF THE BRAZILIAN NAVAL WAR COLLEGE SCIENTIFIC EDITOR captain (Retd) FRanciSco eduaRdo alveS de almeida (egn) ReaR admiRal (Retd) maRcio magno de FaRiaS FRanco e Silva ASSISTANT EDITORS liutenant (J.g.) JanSen coli calil n. almeida de oliveiRa (egn) JéSSica geRmano de lima Silva (egn) noele de FReitaS peigo (Facamp) pedRo allemand manceBo Silva (uFRJ) TRANSLATION AnA cArolinA vAz FAriAs (uFRJ) RESEARCHERS OF THE CONJUNCTURE ASSESSMENT GROUP SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA SOUTH AMERICA dAvid sEvEro pErEirA FrAnçA pinto (uErj) FrAnco nApolEão AguiAr dE AlEncAstro guiMArãEs (puc-rio) isAdorA jAcquEs dE jEsus (uFrj) joão victor MArquEs cArdoso (unirio) viviAn dE MAttos MArciAno (uFrj) AdriAnA EscostEguy MEdronho (EhEss) BEAtriz MEndEs gArciA FErrEirA (uFrj) cArlos hEnriquE FErrEirA dA silvA júnior (uFrj) gABriElA dE AssuMpção noguEirA (uFrj) joão FElipE dE AlMEidA FErrAz (uFrj) pEdro EMiliAno Kilson FErrEirA (unvErsidAdE dE sAntiAgo) NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA ARCTIC & ANTARTIC AnA cláudiA FErrEirA dA silvA (uFrj) cArolinA côrtEs góis (puc-rio) jéssicA pirEs BArBosA BArrEto (Egn) victor cABrAl riBEiro (uFrj) victor EduArdo KAlil gAspAr Filho (Egn) AnA cArolinA FErrEirA lAhr (Egn) gABriElE MArinA MolinA hErnAndEz (uFF) lAilA nEvEs lorEnzon (uFrj) pEdro AllEMAnd MAncEBo silvA (uFrj) rAphAEllA dA silvA diAs costA (uFrj) EUROPE EAST ASIA AriAnE dinAlli FrAncisco (univErsität osnABrücK) doMiniquE MArquEs dE souzA (uFrj) glAycE KErolin rodriguEs MAxiMiAno (uFrj) MAthEus souzA gAlvEs MEndEs (Egn) MElissA rossi (suFFolK univErsity) nAtháliA soArEs dE liMA do vAlE (uErj) thAïs ABygAëllE dEdEo (univErsité dE pAris 3) joão pEdro riBEiro grilo cuquEjo (iBMEc) MArcEllE torrEs AlvEs oKuno (iBMEc) philipE AlExAndrE junquEirA (uErj) rodrigo ABrEu dE BArcEllos riBEiro (uFrj) vinicius guiMArãEs rEis gonçAlvEs (uFrj) MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA RUSSIA & FORMER USSR AnA luizA colArEs cArnEiro (uFrj) André FiguEirEdo nunEs (EcEME) shAKilA dE sousA AhMAd (uFrj) pEdro dA silvA AlBit pEnEdo (uFrj) josé gABriEl dE MElo pirEs (uFrj) luizA goMEs guitArrAri (uFrj) pEdro MEndEs MArtins (EcEME) pérsio glóriA dE pAulA (uFF) SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA SOUTH ASIA MAthEus Bruno FErrEirA AlvEs pErEirA (uFrj) thAyná FErnAndEs AlvEs riBEiro (uFF) vinícius dE AlMEidA costA (Egn) joão MiguEl villAs-BoAs BArcEllos (uFrj) MArinA soArEs corrêA (uFrj) rEBEcA vitóriA AlvEs lEitE (Egn) SPECIAL TOPICS AlEssAndrA dAntAs Brito (Egn) louisE MAriE hurEl silvA diAs (london school oF EconoMics) 2 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE INDEX RUSSIA & FORMER USSR SOUTH AMERICA The Russian Federation constitutional reforms ......................................................9 The oil extraction beginning in Guyana and the important discovery in Suriname 4 EAST ASIA NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA A troubled early 2020 for China ..............................................................................9 South Korean Navy will expand operations in the Strait of Hormuz .....................10 Canadian support vessel construction milestone ...................................................4 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Capturing the Nile: Ethiopia and downstream States’ deal an inch closer .............5 United Kingdom-Africa Relations after Brexit .........................................................5 SOUTH ASIA Indian Navy successfully tests naval fighter plane version...................................10 SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA Australia leading the world energy production .................................................... 11 EUROPE In Davos, Europe is Trump’s new economic target ................................................6 Libya-Turkey Maritime Deal Increases Tensions in the Mediterranean ..................7 ARCTIC & ANTARTICA Chilean Territorialism in Antarctica and the relationship with Brazil......................12 MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA The escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran ...........................................7 Military modernization and naval force boosts Egypt's regional presence .............8 Selected Articles & Defense News........................... 13 Geocorrente Calendar.............................................. 13 References............................................................... 14 REGIONS ANALYZED IN THIS EDITION Click on the circle to be redirected to the related text 3 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020 SOUTH AMERICA The oil extraction beginning in Guyana and the important discovery in Suriname João Felipe Ferraz O n January 20th 2020, Guyana sent is its first crude oil lot to the United States of America (USA) refineries, amounting to nearly 1 million barrels. Oil companies like American Exxon Mobil and the British Tullow Oil have performed drilling and eventually discovered oil in Guyana’s coast since 2015, totalling a reserve of more than 8 billion oil and gas barrels. Therefore, the production officially started in 2020, corresponding to an initial daily extraction of 120 thousand barrels, with potential projections of 750 thousand barrels per day until 2025. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a growth of 85.6% in the South American country's GDP, the lowest in South America (data from 2018), where around 750 thousand people live. In parallel to this important Guyanese economic milestone, the oil companies Apache Corp and Total have announced the discovery of an important oil and gas field on the coast of the country bordering Guyana, Suriname - a country that holds the second lowest South American GDP. Comparatively, it is relevant to notice both countries’ different political situations, which directly influence factors in an economic projection of fossil fuels export. In Guyana, David Granger’s presidential term comes to an end in March of this year, which may mean a power turnover and as a consequence the review of the signed contracts with exploring companies. On the other hand, Suriname experiences an even more unstable political conjuncture, susceptible to wrong decisions that can impact directly the oil sector. Since 2010, the President of the South American country is Desi Bouterse, a political and military leader accused of serious Human Rights violations and various corruption cases. It is also important to highlight his participation in the military leadership of a totalitarian government in the 1980s. The two South American countries’ particular conditions render uncertain the expert's economic predictions who cautiously see a major large finance injection in a short period of time. However, Guyana and Suriname’s insertion into the oil market is a great opportunity for growth for two economies historically dependent only on mineral extraction and agriculture. NORTH & CENTRAL AMERICA Canadian support vessel construction milestone Jéssica Barreto O th n January 16 2020, a Keel Laying ceremony took place in the Seaspan North Vancouver shipyard.The event, which consists in housing a coin representing the project next to the vessel's keel, symbolizing good luck, is a milestone in the construction of the Joint Support Vessel (JSS) HMCS Protecteur. The project is part of Canada’s National Shipbuilding Strategy (NSS), which establishes the construction of two vessels of this type. These ships will replace the two support vessels built between the 1960s and 1970s, which were decommissioned in 2014 after several years in operation and due to major damage in a fire during a voyage in 2015. Since then, the Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) has used a converted tanker for this support function. The support vessels replacement effort dates back to the 1990s, with modest success. In the early 2000s, Paul Martin’s liberal government launched a procurement project for this type of ship that was approved in 2004, entering its definition phase. Nevertheless, the Paul Martin's government was replaced by the conservative Stephen Harper in 2006, who determined the suspension and the review of all procurement processes started in the previous administration. Still in 2006, the JSS project was again approved with modifications, but in 2008 the project proposals request was cancelled due to prohibitive costs, well above the State funding capability. Therefore, the Defense Minister at that time asked a third agent to review the project anew, formed by representatives of the departments involved in the country's defense procurement system. Thus, the recommendation made by this review was the need for an overhaul of RCN and the shipbuilding sector, giving rise to NSS in 2010. Thereby, with the construction initiated in June 2018, the vessels will be the fourth delivered by the Seaspan’s shipyard, after the three offshore fisheries science ships and will be the biggest vessel ever built by the Canadian industry in terms of length, with 173,7 meters. The vessel is due to be delivered in 2023. 4 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Capturing the Nile: Ethiopia and downstream States’ deal an inch closer Franco Alencastro R epresentatives of the Ethiopian State announced on January 24th the beginning of a round of negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on the Nile River waters management. The announcement follows a meeting between the Sudanese and Ethiopian Foreign Ministers on the 22nd. The core of the negotiation will be Ethiopia's intention to build the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in the Nile. The GERD is projected to be one of the largest dams in the world when completed: it is estimated to be the eighth largest in installed capacity, reaching 6.45 Gigawatts. The GERD represents a major point of attrition between the neighbouring countries, as the Nile is an important source of drinking water for Sudan and Egypt, and local officials say that the dam would damage its ebb. Egypt, particularly, depends heavily on the Nile for the irrigation of its agriculture, which occurs exclusively on the banks of the river, taking up only 3% of the territory. And although the country's agricultural production has grown by more than 20% in the past two decades, population growth has been even faster, putting further pressure on the sector. Notably, the rise in food prices was one of the causes of popular discontent that led to the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak in 2011. The construction of GERD, announced in 2011, has not yet started as a result of this dispute. For Ethiopia, the construction of the dam represents victory over a considerable challenge: generating enough energy for a country whose GDP has been growing at a rate of over 10% for more than a decade. The GERD also allows to circumvent external dependence on energy sources such as oil, an important fact in an economy historically penalized by the scarcity of foreign exchange. The dam construction, however, cannot come at the cost of more external problems for a country that in recent years has overcome historical disputes such as the conflict with neighboring Eritrea. Negotiation, therefore, is a necessary step. Source: Atlantic Council United Kingdom-Africa Relations after Brexit João Victor Marques Cardoso O th n January 20 2020, the UK-Africa Investment Summit was held in London, in which delegations from only 21 African countries met. Organized by the British government, the Summit announced £1.5 billion in public initiatives such as infrastructure projects estimated at £350 million, in addition to private businesses equivalent to £6.5 billion. Ahead of eleven days of the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union (EU), the event represented a political-economic nod to Africa, whose relevance should not be strategically ruled out. On the British side, the need to renew historical ties with Africa was noticed during Theresa May’s government, who made an official visit to South Africa, 5 Nigeria and Kenya in August 2018. The then minister of Africa, Harriett Baldwin, affirmed the importance of trade to create jobs and investments in order to reduce African dependence on foreign aid. The term Global Britain was widely used so that the country did not shirk from global responsibilities, even though Brexit materialized. On the other hand, under Boris Johnson's administration, the priority given to domestic issues seemed to weaken the approach to the African continent. However, the withdrawal from the EU requires trade negotiations with the rest of the world, with the UK-Africa Investment Summit evincing this. On the African side, there is an opportunity for more favorable negotiations, due to the pressure faced » BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020 by London to minimize the negative impact of Brexit, stipulating reduced access to the EU market. Thus far, eleven African countries have signed “continuity agreements” with the United Kingdom, which aim to replace those existing by the EU. It is still too little compared to the size of the continent, which receives less than 4% of foreign direct investments and occupies only 2.5% of British trade with the world. In view of the need to create twenty million jobs annually to follow its demographic growth and the fact that, by 2050, a quarter of global consumers will be African, the imbalances can be perpetuated. If the United Kingdom favors to shield its influence instead of directing it towards capacity building and reducing asymmetries, support for development would be illusory. In addition to the Brexit uncertainties, economies such as South Africa and Nigeria, African main trading partners, would be impacted, spilling over into their respective regions. EUROPE In Davos, Europe is Trump’s new economic target Nathália do Vale L th ast Friday, January 24 , was the last day of the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland. With the presence of economic authorities from all over the world, the summit had global warming and its impacts in world economy as its main theme. Throughout the discussions, it became clear that, after the trade war between China and the United States dominated the economic agenda of 2019, something similar will happen this year between Europe and the USA. While Trump said that a free trade agreement between them is inevitable, Europeans such as Bruno Le Maire, France’s Finance Minister, stated that the European Union (EU) will retaliate if the United States decides to raise tariffs on their products. “Europe has changed in the past few years, it is not as naive as it used to be. Europe has become more independent and more aware of its strategic interests”, said Le Maire. The region is the United States’ main economic partner, followed by China, Mexico, Canada and Japan, with which the USA closed economic deals last year. Besides that, the US$ 162,6 million trade surplus in exports with the US and the election year in the country are two important negotiation assets for Europe. Meanwhile, the pressure from the agricultural lobby and Europe’s economic stagnation are two downsides in negotiating a future deal, along with opposing views over the importance of climate issues in the world’s economy. France might be a good example of how this “tug of war” may play out. On January 1st 2019, France announced tariffs up to 3% on the profits of IT giants GAFA (Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple), alleging tax evasion. After Trump announced, last December, an increase of up 100% in tariffs on French agricultural and manufactured goods, both countries declared they would lift tariffs on both sides and initiate discussions for a thematic agreement in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Moreover, it is worth mentioning that Brexit will continue to play an important part in EU’s agenda this year. With UK’s inevitable exit on January 31st and the urgent need to negotiate deals with the British on numerous themes, it could be questioned whether Europe will be able to be strong enough with two of its main partners in an independent manner. Source: Eurostat 6 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020 Libya-Turkey Maritime Deal Increases Tensions in the Mediterranean Melissa Rossi O th n January 20 2020, Greek Foreign Minister, Nikos Dendias, expressed his concerns about the European Union (EU) not condemning more openly the maritime deal signed by the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Republic of Turkey during the Berlin Conference, which took place the day before. The deal, signed last November by Libyan leader al-Sarraj and Turkish President Erdogan, delineates the maritime boundaries of both countries ignoring Greece’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) off the coast of Crete. Ankara has adopted an aggressive foreign policy stance towards its Mediterranean neighbours due to its growing political and economic isolation in the region, especially after the discovery of significant oil and gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean fields to which Turkey has no access. In May and July 2019, Ankara sent Turkish Petroleum drill ships, the Fatih and Yavuz, to start activities in Cyprus’ EEZ. As a response, the EU imposed economic sanctions against Turkey, while Cyprus made a petition to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to rule on the dispute. Nevertheless, none of these actions were able to change Ankara’s behaviour, who claims that the maritime zones in question belong to its continental shelf. In regard to the geopolitical relevance of the LibyaTurkey maritime deal, once again Turkey takes a belligerent stance, but this time against Greece. Ankara is clearly aware of the violation of Greece’s EEZ, but chooses to play a dangerous realpolitik game to exert pressure on its European neighbors, even though it is not certain that the agreement will withstand the Libyan conflict, since the country remains divided into two governments: the Turkish and the UN-backed government located in Tripoli and led by al-Sarraj and General Khalifa Haftar’s government in Tobruk, supported by Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Nevertheless, if al-Sarraj’s government does prevail, the maritime deal will be valid and it is very likely that we will witness the same Turkish belligerent foreign policy, including the deployment of Turkish drill ships in Greece’s EEZ. Source:TRT Wrold MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA The escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran Ana Luiza Colares O n January 3rd 2020, the United States launched an offensive near Baghdad International Airport. The drone air attack resulted in the death of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, head of the Special Forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The incident sparked international concern and took thousands of Iranians to the streets to demand a response from the government. On January 8th, Iran carried out retaliatory attacks using medium-range ballistic missiles, striking two Iraqi bases where the US military were stationed, causing structural damage. A few hours later, a Ukraine Airlines plane heading for Kiev was shot down shortly after taking off from Tehran, killing 176 civilians, mostly Iranians. The day after the attack, President Donald Trump made a statement de-escalating military offensives, saying that economic sanctions would continue and calling on Iranians to sign a new deal on their nuclear program. On the 11th, the Iranian government acknowledged that its air defense force was responsible for the fall of the Ukrainian aircraft, having mistaken it for a possible North-american air strike. The population's mourning for Soleimani has been replaced by public resentment towards its authorities, with demonstrations for changes, strongly repressed in Tehran on the 12th and 13th. Recent events are not isolated. Since the US left the Nuclear Deal in 2018, and the return of economic sanctions on Iran led by the Trump administration, there has been an escalation of tensions between countries, especially in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. It is worth highlighting the international action of the Revolutionary Guard, mainly in the so-called “axis of resistance” in countries like Syria, in support of Bashar Al-Assad; in Yemen, in support of the Houthi group; and in regions where the Lebanese Hezbollah group operates, all Shia Muslims. This way, Iran and the United States find themselves constantly in opposite sides in the conflicts in » 7 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020 the Middle East, since Israel and Saudi Arabia, supported by the US, actively participate against the groups above. In addition, the US has the advantage of being present militarily in the Persian Gulf and surroundings through, for example, the Sentinel Program, being able to track the Iranian actions and the groups that are within its sphere of influence. Thus, the unstable relations between the countries transcend several peculiarities, alliances and involve regional and global players, the latter exemplified by Russian and Chinese criticism over the North-american attack of the 3rd, in addition to the attempt by European countries such as Germany and France for a negotiation in favor of maintaining the 2015 Nuclear Deal. Although tension between the United States and Iran has eased in recent weeks, it is difficult to predict what is to come, especially the stance of radical Shia groups that support Tehran. Source: DW Military modernization and naval force boosts Egypt's regional presence Pedro Albit J Tarek el-Molla, announced the signing of nine oil and gas exploration agreements worth US$ 452 million in the Mediterranean and the Western Desert. Four of these agreements are partnerships with Shell, while the other adjusts the price of gas in the concession area for Shell and British Petroleum. On January 15th, Berenice military base was opened, becoming the largest in the Red Sea, with air and naval bases, a military hospital and training camps. The base opened a day after the end of new military exercises, Qader 2020, involving the three arms of the Egyptian Armed Forces in manoeuvers to protect the Sinai Peninsula and the Suez Canal. With the aim of protecting navigation in the entrance to the Red Sea, which leads to the Canal, the base also meets the strategic imperative of supporting Iran's rival countries in the Gulf and Western allies, containing Iranian operations in the region. For this reason, the base may, in the future, also serve as logistical support for the United States Air Force, which does not have its own base in Egypt. anuary 2020 marks Egypt's efforts for bigger maritime presence in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. After the Turkish Parliament approved the deployment of troops to Libya on January 2nd, to support the internationally recognized government, Egypt, which endorses Libyan General Khalifa Haftar, carried out large scale naval exercises in the Mediterranean two days later, on January 4th. The exercise used Mistral class amphibious assault carrier and Gowind-class corvettes, both Frenchmanufactured, as well as American-manufactured Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates and a German Type 209 submarine. The exercise can be considered a display of force and commitment to Egypt's Libyan ally, because right after the announcement of Turkish troops deployment, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Arab Republic of Egypt published a note rejecting the initiative for it violates international agreements. Another way to consolidate its presence in the Mediterranean took place on January 20th, when the Minister of Petroleum, 8 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020 RUSSIA & FORMER USSR The Russian Federation constitutional reforms Pedro Martins O th n January 15 , President Vladimir Putin made his “State of the Nation Address”. In it, the Russian president announced a set of constitutional amendments to "transform Russia into a welfare state that embraces the rule of law and increase the efficiency of National institutions, without changing the basics of the Constitution". After that speech, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev resigned and, following Russian legislation, all the other members of his cabinet as well. In his place, Mikhail Mishustin, former head of the Russian Federal Tax Service, was approved by a large majority by the Russian Parliament, with 383 votes in favor and 41 abstentions from the Communist Party, while Medvedev became deputy head of the National Security Council. The new cabinet appointed by Mishustin had major changes among its members, but kept Sergey Lavrov and Sergey Shoygu in the Foreign Affairs and Defense ministries, respectively. Like many former Soviet Union countries, the Russian Federation is a semi-presidential republic. This means that there is a power division between the President, responsible for Foreign Affairs and Defense, and the Prime Minister, responsible for domestic affairs. In the specific Russian case, the Prime Minister is appointed by the President and subsequently approved by Parliament. Under current Russian law, the President cannot have more than two consecutive terms. With the proposed constitutional amendments, which will be debated at the Parliament on May 1st, presidential terms will be limited to two, regardless of whether they are alternated, the criterion for presidential candidates will increase, the Russian constitution will be prioritized over international treaties, and increase the powers of Parliament to appoint and approve the Prime Minister and members of the ministerial cabinet. In this regard, the constitutional reforms proposed by President Putin can be interpreted as a mechanism by which he can influence the future successors of his stint, given that it ends in 2024. Under the current constitutional text, he could not run for a third consecutive term. According to Tatiana Stanovaya of the think tank Carnegie Russia Endownment for Peace, the changes reflect an “insurance policy” against possible abuses of power, indicating that Putin is working on a possible successor in the Russian Federation presidency. EAST ASIA A troubled early 2020 for China Philipe Alexandre O n January 11th 2020, national elections took place in Taiwan, which resulted in the stay of proindependence President Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in power. Tsai won 57.1% of the votes, defeating her biggest pro-Beijing rival, Han Kuoyu, of the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang), with 38.6% of the vote. DPP also won a majority of the seats in the island's legislature. This result is considered a major turning point in the Taiwanese political scene, as several opinion polls in 2018 and 2019 indicated Han's 30% point advantage over Tsai. However, the latest events in Hong Kong favoured Tsai, as she supported the protesters. This allowed Tsai to turn the election in Taiwan into a referendum on relations with China, which indicated a rejection of the island's local population to the "one country, two systems" system advocated by Beijing, that is in effect in Hong Kong. An annual study by the National Chengchi University in Taipei shows that only 10% of the Taiwanese people support unification. It is necessary to wait in order to know how Beijing will behave in this second Tsai’s term. Possible reactions from the continent may include a decrease in the flow of investment to Taiwan and an expansion of Taipei's diplomatic isolation on the international stage. The island's diplomatic partners have narrowed to 15 countries after Beijing persuaded seven States to cut ties with Taipei after Tsai's election in 2016. Military intimidation is another tool that can be used, which can exacerbate regional tensions and strategic rivalry between Beijing and Washington. The United States is required by its own laws to ensure that Taiwan is able to defend itself. Finally, it is valid to analyze Tsai's victory in a broader spectrum. While Beijing has managed to conduct and achieve its interests internationally – with the signing of the first phase of the trade agreement with Washington, maintaining the economic growth expected – domestically, the conjuncture is more challenging: seven months of demonstrations in Hong Kong and the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak in the middle of festivities. In view of these, Beijing should be more concerned with its domestic affairs in 2020. The history of the dissolution of the communist bloc in the 1990s, due to internal reasons, is still in the minds of the Chinese authorities. 9 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020 South Korean Navy will expand operations in the Strait of Hormuz Marcelle Torres R ecently, the US has increased pressure on South Korea to send a naval force to the Middle East to be part of the naval security mission in the Strait of Hormuz. Such request is another military alliance test between Washington and Seoul, with both still negotiating the share of defense costs on the Korean Peninsula. In response, South Korea decided to expand the operational areas of the Cheonghae Naval Unit to the Strait of Hormuz, however independently, without being directly part of the US coalition or without affecting relations with Iran. Since 2009, the Cheonghae Unit has been conducting anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, Somalia, which accounts for 29% of South Korea's total maritime volume, and has carried out rescues and evacuations during the crises in Libya and Yemen. Created to protect civilian ships near Somalian coast and to cooperate with the Combined Maritime Forces in maritime security operations, the Cheonghae Unit will be composed by the 4,500-ton destroyer Wang Geon, equipped with anti-aircraft, anti-surface, anti-submarine weapons and a contingent of 300 military personnel, with Muscat in Oman as an advanced operational base. About 70% of South Korea's crude oil imports come from the Middle East, with 170 South Korean vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 900 times a year. "Considering a political analysis and bilateral ties with the countries of the Middle East, I believe that our position on the matter cannot be exactly the same as that of the United States," said Kang Kyungwha, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea. In December 2019, Tokyo also expressed the independent character of its support to Washington's request. For Japan, imports reach 90%. In addition to the region's importance in supplying oil to South Korea, there are about 25,000 South Koreans in the Middle East, with more than 1,500 in Iraq. Staying independent and considering the military role in the region is the best immediate option. The second is to rethink the country's energy security and also make it a national priority. Source: Yonhap Newsl SOUTH ASIA Indian Navy successfully tests naval fighter plane version João Miguel Villas-Bôas T deck. In the Indian case, the country adopted the system STOBAR: Short Take-Off But Arrested Recovery for the aircraft carriers Vikramaditya (Kiev class) and the nationally produced, in final testing, Vikrant. Currently, the Indian Navy operates the Russian fighters Mig-29K, but, due to a number of problems with the airplane, the Indian government has been looking for alternative solutions. The national project of fighter Tejas, in the naval version, shows itself as a possible solution. However, despite the success in the recent test, the model sought by the country’s Navy involves the conception of a fighter plane with two turbines, a demand not yet met by Tejas naval version. In effect, the companies HAL » he Indian Navy celebrated the successful takeoff-and-landing of the naval version of its national fighter plane Tejas aboard INS Vikramaditya airplane carrier. The airplane is produced by the State company Hindustal Aeronautics Limited (HAL), in partnership with the Defense Research Development Organization (DRDO) and conducted the test on January 11th 2020. This achievement reinforces the advancement of the Indian technological capacity and gives the country the special status in terms of naval power, as few other countries, namely the United States, Russia, France, United Kingdom and China, have developed aircrafts capable of landing and taking off from an aircraft carrier 10 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020 and DRDO affirm that they are able to adapt the current model (one turbine) to the Navy’s demand (two turbines). However, experts say the deadline for delivering the new version does not meet the geopolitical urgency of the project to equip the Indian aircraft carriers with vigorous deterrence power as companies would only be able to deliver the first aircraft in 2030. The case of “incomplete success” of the fighter Tejas, in the naval version, shows the structural problems of the Navy, of the Indian military-industrial complex and of the others forces, to wit: planning, inability to meet deadlines and doubtful effectiveness. India is a regional power with important global ambitions to the international system and its immediate geopolitical threats has as central concern: the Indian Ocean. Although it has enormously advanced in the technological and production capacity of naval military equipment, the country still hesitates about the deadlines and operationality of a series of strategic projects, compromising its plans to become a global power. SOUTHEAST ASIA & OCEANIA Australia leading the world energy production Thayná Fernandes I n 2019, Australia managed to overtake Qatar in the energy market, becoming the world's largest exporter of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). This news is the result of investments and efforts by the government to become an important hub in the energy market. However, in times of growing demand for renewable energies, would this step be an advance or an indication that for some countries the “sustainable future” has not yet arrived? In 2014, one of the Australian challenges was the coal export, whose biggest buyer was China. In 2015, with the Paris Climate Change Conference, Australia pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Despite this, in 2016, there were disputes with East Timor for the maritime portion known as Timor Gap, an area containing about 5.1 trillion cubic feet of LNG, whose limits were not established. After resolving the issue in 2018, the possibilities for exploring the region's hydrocarbons were expanded. Through this trajectory, according to Cullinane (2019), Australian gas production increased 16% compared to 2018. LNG revenue grew 25% every four months, and export revenue of 2018-2019 increased by around 60%, generating a profit of US$ 50 billion. Although conventional energy is on the rise, Australia leads the way in the renewable energy construction and production. This aspect is part of the 2020 to 2030 goals launched in 2001: the target set for 2020 was to generate 33 thousand GWh from renewable sources. The State currently produces 260 thousand. For 2030, the goal is for 50% of the country's energy source to be from renewables. In 2018, that number reached 21% of the national energy supply. It is common for natural gas to be understood as a transition energy source for more sustainable and cleaner energies. The Australian case is relevant, because it considers the reduction of pollution and also moves towards energy autonomy and independence, crucial factors in geopolitical terms. Depending on a few countries for energy supply can cause major inconveniences to States. Source: Clean Energy Council 11 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020 ARCTIC & ANTARCTICA Chilean Territorialism in Antarctica and the relationship with Brazil Gabriele Hernandez C hile, one of the seven countries that claimed territory jurisdiction over Antarctica before the Antarctic Treaty in 1959, has approved the Chilean Antarctic Statute project this January, which aims to protect and strengthen its sovereignty in the continent. The Statute seeks to reinforce and protect the country’s rights over the region, claimed as part of its territory on the sixth continent, though based on the Antarctic Treaty. It also intends, to be a source of regulation of activities such as fishery and economic development in the Magallanes and Chilean Antarctic regions, since the area serves as a seaport and an airport to Antarctica by Chile and other countries that make use of Chilean facilities, Brazil included. By linking the activities in the Magallanes and Chilean Antarctic regions to a Statute, Chile opens the opportunity of giving them legal protection, securing the Chilean Antarctic program to be more independent from other government projects and becoming a State project in itself. It also brings more autonomy to the Southern region of the country, which relies heavily on Antarctic activities. Chile is one of the greatest partners in terms of Antarctic cooperation with Brazil. In the 1960s, three Brazilian Navy Officers were involved in three different Antarctic expeditions held by Chile, the first Brazilian military to ever visit the Southern continent. The new Brazilian Antarctic Station Comandante Ferraz (ASCF), inaugurated on January 15th, depends on the airstrip of the Chilean Station Presidente Eduardo Frei Montalva, located in the same island, and on the city of Punta Arenas, the main logistic hub of the Brazilian polar ships. Another recent event that reaffirms the degree of cooperation between the two countries in the region was the accident on December 10th, 2019, when a Hercules aircraft (C-130) from the Chilean Airforce fell down while flying over Drake’s Passage, heading towards Antarctica. The NPo Almirante Maximiano, which was stationed near the ASCF, was promptly called to aid the search and rescue and was responsible to find the debris of the aircraft. Although the relationship between Antarctic countries is centered on logistic and scientific cooperation, the new Chilean Statute reinforces the territorial aspect of the country’s presence in Antarctica and must be seen as another proof of the importance of the frozen continent. Source: Revista de Marina (adapted) 12 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020 SELECTED ARTICLES & DEFENSE NEWS ► Top Risks 2020 EURASIA GROUP, Ian Bremmer e Cliff Kupchanr ► The Global Risks Report 2020 WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM ► Putin You've Got A Problem: The Russian Navy NATIONAL INTEREST, David Axe ► 2020 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview STRATFOR ► IMB: Unprecedented Number of Kidnappings in Gulf of Guinea THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE ► In a quest for 355 ships, US Navy leaders are unwilling to accept a hollow force DEFENSE NEWS, David Larter ► Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization USNI NEWS ► The Royal Navy’s New Aircraft Carriers Are Eating the Fleet NATIONAL INTEREST, David Axe GEOCORRENTE CALENDAR FEBRUARY MARCH 05-06 Warsaw Humanitarian Expo Security Conference 2020 14-16 Munich Elections in Iran 21 Parliamentary 02 General elections in Guyana 05 178 OPEC Meeting and Road Summit, in Dubai 18-19 Belt League 85-yearsanniversary 22 Arab Referendum on the reform the Falklands electoral 26 ofsystem 26-27 European Council meeting Artificial Intelligence Summit, in Saudi Arabia 30-31 Global th 13 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020 REFERENCES • The oil extraction beginning in Guyana and the important discovery in Suriname BADDOUR, Dylan. Exxon Ships First Oil From New Mega – Discoveries in Guyana. Forbes. Accessed on: January 25th, 2020. BANDOW, Doug. Suriname: The Next Big Oil Player. The National Interest. Accessed on: January 25th, 2020. • The Russian Federation constitutional reforms What Changes Is Putin Planning for Russia’s Constitution? Moscow Times, Moscow, v. 3, n. 1, p.1-3. Accessed on: January 16th, 2020. Amendments to Constitution aimed at reinforcing 'rule of law & welfare state' in Russia – Putin. Russia Today. Accessed on: January 16th, 2020. • A troubled early 2020 for China POMFRET, John. Despite election result, China won’t give up on Taiwan. The Washington Post. Accessed on: January 23th, 2020. HUANG, Cary. Taiwan election: Hong Kong won it, Beijing lost it. This Week In Asia. Accessed on: January 23th, 2020. • Canadian support vessel construction milestone PUGLIESE, David. Ceremonial keel laying event for Canadian Navy's first Joint Support Ship held at Seaspan. Ottawa Citizen. Accessed on: January 23rd, 2020. WILSON, Carla. Ceremonial keel-laying held for new HMCS Protecteur. Times Colonist. Accessed on: January 23rd, 2020. • South Korean Navy will expand operations in the Strait of Hormuz SEUNG-WOO, Kang. 'Korea's stance on Hormuz may not be same as US'. The Korea Times. Accessed on: January 25th, 2020. HAYEH-AH, Lee. U.S. welcomes S. Korea's troop dispatch to Strait of Hormuz. Yonhap News Agency. Accessed on: January 25th, 2020. • Capturing the Nile: Ethiopia and downstream States’ deal an inch closer ABDALLATIF, M.. Ethiopia, Riparian States inch closer to deal over Nile water use. The East African. Accessed on: January 25th, 2020. SCHWARZTEIN, P. Battered by Climate Change, Nile farmers forge new course. National Geographic. Accessed on: January 25th, 2020. • Indian Navy successfully tests naval fighter plane version ROBLIN, Sebastian. India’s Tejas Fighter Just Performed Its First Carrier Landing – Does a Twin Engine Model Have a Future in the Indian Navy? The National Interest. Accessed on: January 23th, 2020. SHUKLA, Asai. In naval landmark, Tejas lands on aircraft carrier INS Vikramatitya. Businnes Standard. Accessed on: January 23th, 2020. • United Kingdom-Africa Relations after Brexit DUDLEY, Dominic. The UK’s Africa Summit offered lofty promises of commitment but not enough substance. Quartz Africa. Accessed on: January 21st, 2020. UK-Africa summit: Wooing Africa after Brexit. BBC. Accessed on: January 22nd, 2020. • Australia leading the world energy production CULLINANE, Danica. Australia hits oil and gas production record, over a billion barrels. Small. Caps, set. 2019. Accessed on: December 25th, 2019. TOSCANO, Nick. Australia tops Qatar as world's biggest LNG exporter. The Sydney Morning Herald. Accessed on: January 20th, 2020. • In Davos, Europe is Trump’s new economic target Taxe GAFA: Macron et Trump trouvent un accord pour prolonger les negociations et suspendre les sanctions. LA DEPECHE FRANCE. Accessed on: January 23rd, 2020. FIDLER, Steve; IP, Greg. Europe Girds for Trade Battle With U.S. The Wall Street Journal. Accessed on: January 23rd, 2020. • Chilean Territorialism in Antarctica and the relationship with Brazil Aprobado Proyecto Estatuto Antartico Chileno. Defensa. Accessed on: January 25th, 2020. Estatuto Chileno Antártico: proyecto busca proteger y fortalecer los derechos soberanos de Chile en el continente blanco. Senado de Chile. Accessed on: January 25th, 2020. • Libya-Turkey Maritime Deal Increases Tensions in the Mediterranean JOHNSON, Keith. Newly Aggressive Turkey Forges Alliance with Libya. Foreign Policy. Accessed on: January 15th, 2020. Greece expects to be included in next stages of Berlim process, FM says. Ekathimerini. Accessed on: January 23rd, 2020. • The escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran Iran fires missiles at US targets in Iraq — as it happened. DW, 08 jan. 2020. Acesso em: 24 jan. 2020. HARB, Ali; HILTON, Daniel. Iran's Qassem Soleimani killed in US strike on Baghdad airport. Middle East Eye. Accessed on: January 24th, 2020. • Military modernization and naval force boosts Egypt's regional presence Egypt’s naval forces go on amphibious exercises in the Mediterranean. Egypt Today, 4 jan. 2020. Accessed on: January 23rd, 2020. Egypt seeks to bolster Red Sea influence with massive new base. Middle East Eye. Accessed on: January 23rd, 2020. 14 BOLETIM GEOCORRENTE • ISSN 2446-7014 • No 109 • January | 2020