Car travel: Asia cannot follow Australia's path. Part 2 32 Car travel: Asia cannot follow Australia’s path P. Moriarty Refereed Paper This paper has been critically reviewed by at least two recognised experts in the field. Originally submitted: November 1999 Vol 9 No 2 June 2000 Road & Transport Research Abstract This paper analyses the future of car ownership and use in Asia. Because urban residents have higher than average incomes, car ownership is much higher in cities than in rural areas, athough still low by Australian standards. Yet Asia’s rapidly growing and densely populated cities already suffer serious traffic congestion, accidents, and air pollution, which higher car ownership can only exacerbate. It does not seem possible to improve traffic speeds by road construction on the scale needed for car-dominated transport systems. Asia’s low oil reserves, lack of suitable alternative fuels, and its rising total greenhouse gas emissions cast further doubt on a car-oriented future. A more suitable transport system for large, congested cities would stress heavy-rail, which is not only far more land-use and fuel efficient than car travel, but also will often be faster. For less congested cities, both large and small, busway systems, which are also both land-use and fuel efficient, show promise as a cost-effective solution. Also needed are urban road pricing, and encouragement of the already high levels of nonmotorised travel in both urban and rural areas. Car travel: Asia cannot follow Australia's path. Part 2 33 In 1996, the world motor vehicle fleet numbered nearly 700 million, including over 500 million cars. Only about 75 million of these cars, or 15%, were in Asia (World Bank 1998). (In this paper, Asia includes all those countries bounded by (and including) Pakistan to the west and China to the north, or all Asia except for the Middle-East and the republics of the former USSR.) At first glance, the future potential for greatly increased car ownership in Asia appears enormous. Asia so defined in 1996 had 3224 million people, or 55% of the world total (World Bank 1999). Economic growth rates for many countries in this region have been high, with the largest (China and India) little affected by the 1997 Asian economic crisis. Economic growth in any case had picked up in the affected countries by 1999 (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 1999). A strong case can be made for high future growth rates in Asian car travel. One method for projecting future car ownership is to make use of the experience of more developed countries as a ‘template’ for car ownership in less developed countries. Ballew and Schnorbus (1993), for example, used South Korea’s experience of growth in income and car ownership as a model for China. On this basis they projected China’s car population to reach 36 million in the year 2010, noting that in South Korea “vehicle sales and all consumer durables exploded once per capita income reached approximately $3500 a year”. Similarly, Dargay and Gately (1997) forecast by 2015 nearly 60 million cars in China and over 450 cars per 1000 population in Taiwan and South Korea. More generally, Japan has been implicitly used as a model for Asian industrialising countries, and in 1996 Japanese car ownership reached 374 per 1000 population (World Bank 1998). Finally, there is the example of the car-oriented Western countries, including neighbouring Australia, with their even higher levels of car ownership. Many countries in Asia are promoting domestic car industries (Taylor 1997), which has contributed to the recent rapid growth in local car ownership (Allport 1996). In former Asian centrally planned economies, private ownership of cars was discouraged in the past, and in some cases prohibited. Today, these constraints have been largely lifted. In China, for example, auto manufacturing has been designated as one of the five ‘pillar’ industries for development in the early twenty-first century, with the long-term goal of a car for 270 million (or 90%) of Chinese families (Smil 1997). Calder (1996) similarly argues that for China ‘a long-range projection of 300 million cars on the road is not unreasonable’. Table 1 Cars per 1000 population in Australia and various Asian countries, 1960–95 Country Australia China India Indonesia Hong Kong Japan Malaysia Pakistan Singapore South Korea Taiwan Thailand Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 196 0 1 1 11 5 13 2 40 1 1 2 307 0 1 2 23 85 26 2 60 2 3 5 401 0 1 4 36 203 62 2 65 7 41 9 437 1 3 6 37 283 69 4 105 49 114 15 485 3 4 11 55 374 131 5 120 151 193 28 Sources: UN 1997; World Bank 1998. Vol 9 No 2 June 2000 Road & Transport Research Car travel: Asia cannot follow Australia's path. Part 2 34 Despite this high-growth picture for Asian car travel, this paper argues that the rapid growth in car ownership and use observed in recent years cannot continue for long. The following sections first analyse the various factors that presently constrain car ownership and use, then examine probable future constraints. The last major section suggests ways in which the transport systems in Asian countries could be adjusted to meet these serious constraints. HISTORICAL PATTERNS OF CAR OWNERSHIP IN ASIA This section considers only the spread of car ownership in Asia, as data on car usage, although preferable, is only available over the period for Japan. In 1960, the world’s cars totalled only about 98 million. The countries of western Europe, the United States (US), Canada, and Australasia together owned 92% of this total, with nearly 63% in the US alone. Asia’s share, however, was little more than 1% (United Nations (UN) 1997). Table 1 shows car ownership data for Australia and a number of Asian countries, including both the largest, and the most economically advanced. Ownership remained low in all countries except Japan until 1980. Since then, and particularly since 1990, car ownership has passed 100 per 1000 population in several countries, and at 374 Japan is not far below the average West European figure of 434 cars per 1000 population (Euromonitor 1998). In poor countries, such as most of Asia in the 1960s, low per capita incomes inhibited car ownership and use, just as it still does today in the low income countries of tropical Africa, for example. Low average per capita incomes can explain the low rates of car ownership in only a few Asian countries today. Existing car ownership in the region is still low when compared with income levels, as Table 2 demonstrates for the most developed Asian economies. (The Gross National Product (GNP) values are expressed in Purchase Parity Prices (PPP), as these better compare actual transport purchasing power for different countries than do GNP values based on exchange rates.) ‘Car intensities’, defined here as cars/US$million GNP, are low compared with Australia, whose value is typical of the OECD (World Bank 1998). On a vehicle-kilometre basis, intensities are even lower, since cars appear to be driven much less per year than in Australia (Euromonitor 1998). The last column in Table 2 shows that per kilometre of road length, vehicle numbers (excluding twowheelers) are far higher in Asian countries than in Australia. Even these high numbers underestimate levels of road use in Asia. Ownership of motorcycles in the poorer countries is usually several times higher than that for cars, while in Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand, it exceeds 100, and in Taiwan, 400 per 1000 population. For Australia the figure is only 16 per 1000 population (World Bank 1998). In addition, roads must also cater for heavy bicycle traffic, and even animal-drawn vehicles (Replogle 1992). Vehicle numbers have also risen much more rapidly than road space provision in many Asian countries. For example, from 1980 to 1996, road vehicles per kilometre (excluding two-wheelers), rose from 11 to 106 in South Korea, and from 13 to 97 in Thailand Table 2 Transport parameters, Australia and various Asian countries, 1996 Country Australia Hong Kong Japan Malaysia Singapore South Korea Thailand GNP/capita (1996 US$ PPP) Cars per $m. GNP 19 870 24 260 23 420 10 390 26 190 13 080 6 700 24.4 2.3 16.0 12.6 4.5 11.5 4.2 Source: World Bank 1998. Vol 9 No 2 June 2000 Road & Transport Research Vehicles/km. of road 12 276 60 33 168 106 97 Car travel: Asia cannot follow Australia's path. Part 2 35 (World Bank 1998). Lack of road space is thus a probable contributory factor for Asia’s low car intensity. URBAN CONGESTION IN ASIAN COUNTRIES The previous section dealt with car ownership trends at the national level, whereas this section will examine the situation in Asian cities. The data in Table 2 suggest considerable unmet demand for cars in Asia, and this is especially true for its congested cities (Birk and Reilly-Roe 1991). Table 2 shows that car intensity is very low for the affluent city states of Singapore and Hong Kong. Further, Tokyo and Osaka have much lower car intensities than Japan overall, whereas in Australia’s largestcities, Sydney and Melbourne, car intensities are similar to the overall national average (Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 1997; Japan Statistical Association 1998). Although car ownership and usage are still low, large Asian cities are already among the most congested in the world (Kubota 1996). Cities in developing Asian countries usually have much higher per capita incomes than do rural areas (e.g. State Statistical Bureau (1998), for Chinese data, and National Statistical Office (1998) for Thai data), which help explain why urban population growth is expected to be so rapid. Because of these higher incomes, car ownership also tends to be much higher. In Thailand, for example, 65% of all registered cars operate in the Bangkok metropolis, which has only 9.3% of the population (National Statistical Office 1998). In other words, demand for cars will be highest in Asian cities, which unfortunately are where congestion and air pollution are worst (World Resources Institute (WRI) 1996). In most developing Asian countries, city size is set to grow, since the degree of urbanisation, although presently low, is projected to increase rapidly as industrialisation and economic growth occur (World Bank 1998). For example, the urban population of China is projected to increase from its 1995 level of 30% to 51% by 2020, representing an increase from 369 million to 756 million urban residents. India’s urban population is expected to reach 547 million, and Indonesia’s 151 million by 2020 (UN 1999). This overall urban expansion will be reflected in largecity growth. Already, Asia contains 13 of the world’s 25 largest cities, and these are among the fastest- growing (WRI 1996). Projected populations of the largest cities in Asia in 2015 show five (Tokyo, Bombay, Shanghai, Jakarta and Karachi) in the 20– 30 million range and a further ten cities with 10–20 million (World Bank 1998). Asian cities are also far denser than those in Australia. Newman and Kenworthy (1999) give an average value for population density in six large Australian cities as 1220/km2, compared with 16 190/km2 for nine large Asian cities. Further, in Australia, suburbanisation has reduced urban densities: in 1960, about 8% of the total population lived at urban densities of greater than 4000/km2, but by 1996, only some 2% did so (ABS 1997). In Japan, by contrast, the proportion of the population living in ‘densely inhabited districts’ (4000/km2 or higher) rose from 48% to 65% over the years 1965–95 (Japan Statistical Association 1998). Future prospects for significantly decreasing urban densities in the cities of developing Asia do not look promising either. Gardner (1997) of the Worldwatch Institute argues that because of the need to preserve cropland, most Asian countries will not be able to release much land for city growth. In a decade or two, he foresees insufficient grain on the world market for Asia to import. The World Bank (1999), on the other hand, feel that this assessment is too pessimistic. But the possibility remains that future urban population growth in most Asian countries will need to be at densities similar to today’s, with serious consequences for urban road congestion and air pollution if vehicle numbers continue to grow. The suburbanisation that occurred in Australian cities has been successful overall in preventing deterioration of urban traffic speeds, despite increasing vehicle numbers, as evidenced by the data for 1960–1990 in Newman and Kenworthy (1989, 1999). More indirect evidence is the converging fuel efficiencies of urban and non-urban car operation (Apelbaum Consulting Group 1997). In contrast, in many Asian cities, peak-hour speeds fell during the 1980s (Bose 1996, Kubota 1996; WRI 1996). The peak-hour average for Asian cities is now estimated to be 16 km/h, with much lower speeds in Bangkok (Kubota 1996; World Bank 1998). Evidently, cars in many Asian cities spend much of their time stationary in traffic jams; in Bangkok, the equivalent of 44 days per year! (World Bank 1998). This congestion, along with high-emission vehicle fleets (both private and public), already causes very serious air pollution. Vol 9 No 2 June 2000 Road & Transport Research Car travel: Asia cannot follow Australia's path. Part 2 36 Beijing, for example, has only 10% of Los Angeles’ automobiles, but its aggregate automotive emission levels are similar (World Bank 1997). Even if, as is likely, emissions per vehicle-kilometre are lowered, rising vehicle numbers could mean that no net improvement occurs. Nor does it seem possible to improve speeds by building new roads, even if the land could be made available. Given the substantial latent demand for urban car ownership and travel, it is very likely that any attempt to increase road space, never an easy task in densely populated cities (Xin 1996), will merely result in higher car ownership and use, with no improvement in traffic speeds. In Bangkok, for example, it was estimated in 1991 that the city would need to invest US$100 billion just to maintain present (serious) levels of traffic congestion (Birk and ReillyRoe 1991). The UN (1999) and Allport (1996) have also recognised that simply providing more road space is not a solution, and that traffic restraint measures are needed. PROBABLE FUTURE CONSTRAINTS In 1999, global oil consumption averaged 75.2 million barrels per day, or 27.4 billion barrels of oil per annum, with growth in consumption having already resumed in Asia (ABARE 1999). Proven reserves in Asia are only about 5% of the world total, with reserves to production ratio well below the world average (US Department of Energy 1998). Reserves of non-conventional oil are even smaller, at around 2% (Attanasi and Root 1995). There are presently several minor Asian oil exporters, but Asia overall is a large net importer. China’s oil imports alone are projected to rise to seven million barrels/day by 2015 (Far Eastern Economic Review 1997). The global demand for conventional oil is forecast to outstrip supply at present prices after 2010 (Campbell and LaHerrere 1998; International Energy Agency (IEA) 1998). Asian countries will likely become increasingly vulnerable to supply disruptions and price increases (Calder 1996). Depletion of conventional oil is not the only possible future constraint. The transport sector worldwide is an important producer of heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs). While per capita emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are still low, a large and increasing share of total emissions comes from Asian countries. For example, even with dramatic improvements in energy efficiency and promotion of nuclear and Vol 9 No 2 June 2000 Road & Transport Research hydro electricity, China’s present CO2 emissions of 2.6 billion tonnes are projected to grow by 2025 to 11.7 billion tonnes, or half the present world total. Even then per capita emissions in China would still be much less than the current US figure (Drennen and Erickson 1998). Evidently, if global emissions are to be reduced, the industrialising Asian countries will need to cut emissions as well as the OECD countries (World Bank 1999). Finally, increasing reliance on non-conventional oil will worsen CO2 emissions, because of higher energy costs per barrel delivered to market. Two possibilities for overcoming these constraints are alternative fuel use and more fuel-efficient vehicles. Alternative carbon-based fossil fuels will be of little use for GHG reductions. Similar problems face Asian options for ethanol from biomass, given that the region is already a major net food importer (World Bank 1998). Improving fuel efficiency appears to offer more promise, as the potential is large. However, actual progress has been slow, probably because of declining real oil prices. Indeed, for the Japanese car fleet, energy/passenger-kilometre is now rising because of declining vehicle occupancy rates (IEA 1997; Japan Statistical Association 1998). Even if, very optimistically, new car fuel efficiency could be radically improved in industrialising Asian countries, projected growth in vehicle numbers would soon swamp any fuel efficiency gains. Australia has better prospects for alternative fuels (especially natural gas) than Asia, and traffic growth has slowed. Even so, it is possible that deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, if needed, would also necessitate car travel reductions here. POLICY IMPLICATIONS The previous sections have highlighted several constraints on future Asian car travel that call for policy responses by transport planners. Urban congestion and pollution can only be exacerbated if both car ownership and population continue to rise. It does not seem possible, therefore, for most Asian countries to adopt the car-oriented transport system of Australia. Different approaches to transport planning, particularly in large congested cities, are urgently needed. Some general ideas for a less caroriented direction are discussed in this section. The preceding sections have implicitly spelled out the characteristics required for Asian transport systems to meet the inevitable growth in travel in the Car travel: Asia cannot follow Australia's path. Part 2 37 twenty-first century. They must be efficient in their use of oil, and keep GHG emissions to a minimum. Particularly for large cities, they must be very landuse efficient, needing only small areas of land (including land for parking) to accommodate the movement of high volumes of travellers per hour. They also should minimise exhaust pollutants, a major problem in Asian cities. Vehicular transport should restrict neither the safety nor the freedom of movement of non-motorised travel. And, of course, the overall transport system should aim for high traveller convenience and low costs. Allport (1996) argues that controlling traffic congestion is the core objective in large, heavily congested Asian cities. In these cities, a vehicular solution that meets many of the above criteria is electric fixed-rail transport with its own right of way. Electric rail is far more land-use efficient than car travel. With practical minimum headways of 90– 120 seconds, 30–40 trains per hour can be accommodated on one track. For eight-car trains, and 100 seats per car, a seated passenger volume of 32 000/hour can be obtained. With passengers standing, much higher volumes are possible. Lines in Moscow, New York and Tokyo carry 50 000 or more, while Hong Kong’s Mass Transit Railway attains up to 80 000 passengers per hour per line (Black 1995; White 1995). In contrast, a single lane on a multi-lane freeway can only carry about 2300 cars or about 4000 persons per hour, even under ideal conditions. As traffic density (that is, vehicles per kilometre of road lane) increases past an optimum value, the carrying capacity decreases. On ordinary arterial roads, with cross-traffic, the figure will be even lower (Wright 1996). In some Asian cities, the presence of large numbers of bicycles, and even animal-drawn vehicles, will further reduce motorised traffic volumes. An important consequence of the low and often deteriorating traffic speeds in Asian cities is that heavy-rail transport will often be faster, even at offpeak times. These shorter travel times for rail (together with zero time and money parking costs) can go a long way towards overcoming the inherent advantages of private car travel, such as privacy, weather protection, and door-to-door travel. Although congestion on heavy-rail services decreases travel speeds somewhat, because of the need for greater stopping times at stations, it greatly enhances land-use efficiency, as measured by passengerkilometre per line per hour, as well as energy efficiency. For vehicular road travel, on the other hand, congestion not only greatly increases travel times, but also actually reduces both landuse and fuel efficiency, and increases air pollution. Under the congested conditions typical of large Asian cities, heavy-rail is at least an order of magnitude more land-use efficient than private car travel. It should be no surprise that some of the world’s busiest systems are already to be found in large Asian cities such as Tokyo and Hong Kong. Other large Asian cities, for example, Delhi (Bose 1996), may need to follow their example. Such rail systems will also have much lower transport oil use and greenhouse gas emissions than car-based systems, and no air pollution at the point of use. For less congested cities, or the more lightly-trafficked routes in large, generally congested cities, busway systems will probably be preferable to heavy rail (Gardner 1992; Allport 1996). To achieve high passenger volumes and reasonable travel speeds, busways need dedicated lanes physically separated from general traffic lanes, and traffic signal priority. On the best systems, volumes of 20 000 passengers per hour per direction have been measured, although speed and capacity fall off closer to the city centre. The costs are far lower than that for heavy rail systems (Gardner 1992). Improved road user charging will also be needed in many Asian cities, following the example of Singapore (Lewis 1994). In the industrialising Asian countries, where car ownership is low, equity considerations will be a minor problem compared with Australia, where car ownership is high, even among low-income households. Road user charging in congested cities can, by raising perceived motoring costs, optimise traffic volumes and reduce both fuel consumption and air pollution, as well as raising revenue. Planners also need to recognise non-motorised transport as an important and permanent feature of Asian travel (Thomas et al. 1992; Goodland 1994), one that can complement public transport. These cheap modes of transport are still heavily used in Asia, in both rich and poor countries. China, for example, reportedly has over 300 million bicycles (Replogle 1992). Like heavy-rail, non-motorised modes have high land-use efficiency, as well as no oil use and no local or global emissions. Traffic safety is their biggest problem. Most traffic fatalities in industrialising countries are not vehicle occupants, Vol 9 No 2 June 2000 Road & Transport Research Car travel: Asia cannot follow Australia's path. Part 2 38 but rather pedestrians, pedal cyclists and motor cyclists, especially in urban areas (Moriarty and Honnery 1999). Although high fatality rates have not usually been seen as a constraint on growing vehicle use, they do suggest the need for urgent transport policy changes. China and India are among the world leaders in absolute numbers of traffic fatalities (Navin, Bergan and Jinsong 1994). Further, Navin et al. (1994) project fatalities in China to rise to 180 000 before peaking, if vehicle ownership continues to rise. Xin (1996) argues that constraints on urban vehicle ownership will be required, if vehicular traffic is not to endanger non-motorised travel in densely populated cities. (Allport (1996) likewise argues for car restraint, but for controlling congestion.) Probably also needed are dramatic cuts in permissible vehicle speeds for remaining vehicular traffic, in order to reduce the frequency and severity of impacts with pedestrians and cyclists. Finally, for those living in the rural areas of most Asian nations, low incomes preclude significant increases in car ownership, even if traffic congestion is much less of a constraint than in cities. Rising oil prices and carbon taxes , if levied, will make it even more difficult in the future. Rural residents will have to continue to meet their travel needs much as they do today, mainly by a combination of non-motorised modes, and for longer trips, bus and rail travel, if available. CONCLUSIONS Two conditions must be met for high car ownership and use in any country. First, most individual households must have sufficient disposable income to own and operate cars. Second, there must be an adequate infrastructure to support the resulting high levels of traffic. Asian car travel would be much higher if both incomes and population were more evenly distributed spatially, as is the case for Malaysia. But both income and population distribution seem set to become even more spatially skewed in the future. In the cities of developing Asian countries, the combination of rapid urban population growth and much higher than average incomes will ensure that most future additions to GDP will be generated there. Hence the growing number of households who can afford cars, now and in the future, will mainly reside in large cities, but the congestion resulting from the increasing size of highdensity cities will preclude much growth in vehicular traffic. Vol 9 No 2 June 2000 Road & Transport Research Urban congestion is not the only threat to rising car use. Probably by the second decade of the new century, rising oil prices and the need for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will further check traffic growth. Given its low reserves of oil, including nonconventional sources, Asia is not well-placed to rely on an oil-based transport system. Further, Asia’s rising greenhouse gas emissions, including those from transport, will soon be too large to ignore. Early in the new century, industrialising Asia will probably be required to curb them. Continuation of existing car-oriented transport policies will serve Asia poorly in the new century. Rising travel demands in the largest, most congested Asian cities will usually be best met by electric heavy-rail systems, which are both far more landuse and energy efficient than car-based transport, and may even be faster in very congested areas. In less congested cites, both large and small, busway systems can make efficient use of scarce road space at modest cost. Road user charging in congested cities can not only raise revenue, but also reduce air pollution and fuel consumption. Such policies need to be complemented by more stress on non-motorised modes. To ensure the safety of non-motorised travel, constraints on vehicular traffic will probably be needed, possibly including peak speed reductions. REFERENCES ABARE (1999). Australian Commodities, 6 (3), p. 478. ALLPORT, R. (1996). Transport management: private demands and public needs. In: Stubbs, J. and Clarke, G. 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Slower, smaller and lighter urban cars, Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, 213, Part D, p. 19. WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE (1996). World Resources 1996–7, Oxford University Press, New York. NATIONAL STATISTICAL OFFICE (1998). Statistical Yearbook Thailand, 1997, No. 17, Bangkok, Thailand. NAVIN, F., BERGAN, A. and JINSONG, Q. (1994). Fundamental relationship for roadway safety: model for global comparisons, Transportation Research Record, 1441, p. 53. WRIGHT, P. (1996). Highway Engineering, 6th edn, John Wiley and Sons, New York. XIN C.J. (1996). Bicycle transportation in Shanghai: status and prospects, Transportation Research Record, 1563, p. 8. Vol 9 No 2 June 2000 Road & Transport Research Car travel: Asia cannot follow Australia's path. Part 2 40 Dr Patrick Moriarty is a Research Associate in the Mechanical Engineering Department, Monash University, Caulfield Campus. A civil engineer by training, his research interests include energy, transport and land use policy. He recently edited a special issue on Alternative Fuels and Power Systems for the International Journal of Vehicle Design. Contact Dr Patrick Moriarty Department of Mechanical Engineering Monash University 900 Dandenong Road Caulfield East VIC 3145 Australia Tel: +61 3 9903 2584 Fax: +61 3 9903 2766 Email: patrick.moriarty@eng.monash.edu.au Vol 9 No 2 June 2000 Road & Transport Research View publication stats