3 2 M A- 1% K(M ' (86/5/13 1 N$ G A * !I ! "H ' 4+ J20 1 2 84/11/11 B ! H % ) %& ) < R .F D 3 97 M ' .- $ :8 2: of ..5 ) SI D & P#5 H J%*: #S O : O, =7 ] *@ B .2 2A b B 2 2) & ‹ ) ‹ )S ^_) & P#5 S bB 2 JO %*: J%*: b B 2 2A ] *@ 2 . #0 * G , #< 6 ˆ 1 . &‹ / a P#5 9B + & VB ~ * B JP < )4 . €|)< )P#5 ) . eGO OV 2 &‹ ‹ S & P#5 ^_ A )B B ‹ B C & ). #)0 )* G ) J , #< ] *@ 1 . &‹ 120 Y< 2 <n B B 9J ‹ ,) #< ` 2)J ). . #0 @* 2 B m P c Y< , #< J 1 . &‹ & P#5 ^_ ; ‘OS& 3 )P#5 & ; • 0 € ; & / < C& ; . #0O O P#5 # ); O)S& 3 =0 [ H B %*: O #4 Y< [ / 1 V* GmO0 / 4 62) 2)0 O #3/ 1 B%: < 5 , #< _ OA .20 1 O J# 1 #S# : O / / 1 V*) ) )P#5 / J & / < 120 2 #< ARMA(1,1) 62 # ; G +O . A System Dynamics- Based Analysis of Operation Policies for Water Resources at River Basin Scale ive Saeed Golian 1 Ahmad Abrishamchi2 Massoud Tajrishy3 Abstract Accepted Aug. 4, 2007) ch (Received Jan. 31, 2006 Ar There are many natural and human subsystems in a watershed with their special interrelationships. These interrelationships must be duly considered for the integrated and comprehensive management of the water resources in a water basin. One example of such interrelationships includes upstream water development and utilization projects which adversely affect downstream water quality and quantity. Within the framework of an integrated water resources management, various water resources development and operation policies must be analyzed to select the most convenient one securing the benefits of all the stakeholders in the watershed. In this study, various operation policies in the Urmiah Lake Basin and the Aji Chai River Basin on the east of the lake are analyzed to determine their impacts on the water level in the lake. For this purpose, the Aji Chai Basin is subdivided into three sub-basins and the System Dynamics, which is a feedback–based object–oriented simulation approach, is used to develop the dynamic model of the region. To investigate the present scenarios, the ARMA (1, 1) model is used to generate 10 different time series for each sub-basin and the lake water level is accordingly determined for each case. Keywords: System Dynamics, Water Resources Development, Modeling, Operation Policies River Basin. 1.Grad. Student of Water Resources Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, s.golian@aut.ac.ir 2.Prof., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology 3.Assoc. Prof., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology " %2' 36 + " %2' - " %- $ *!I '6H + s.golian@aut.ac.ir ] - !?%@ !" M + " %2' ] - !?%@ + " %2' ] - !?%@ G 70 www.SID.ir $/ / E"8 > Ar ch ive of \ & \ $ 7 ^ J D 0<' w \ˆX' s \ \ \5 ^\" \# \F G ] \ ^\" A \ ! \" ! \ ƒ•W ' 2 7 w /\ s \ . \ ! \ | J ] \%$ 7 h #' ] * M6 \ \ J \ ]6 \ #\\" . \ * Ÿ^\" \[ X' w ƒ‡ ƒ† ƒƒ ? A ! M` + } 6 A$ 7 ^ J D 0<' \%; A ! " ! 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X 1 2 Autoregressive Moving Average 79 www.SID.ir AZ. / -7 +2% ] ‚' AS 9 ] % \} @ $CB % M+} k ‚' / $\CB H +\ \ ? . " ^ } H% \5 \ \ˆ h \" \ ˜ B / \% 4 \C ^0ˆV\ A " ! 2% ]6 V5 @ ] %6 ? 2C @ +2% . 5 \5 \" \, \c B ;\1 •\ 1<' /\ \M ] }^? X* [ ^ M . ^\ 6 H% 5 A \ \ \ 5 ^' \ R \ ^ \2 B ] \ % \ \ } ]% c B 6 /e2 A * ? $CB 6 ' . % M 2V} } @ ?' '^ 6 # : 2 W25 ! " ' &b : &b ] =2? N <L' ? 6 ^ L\ ] 7\% + } \ 7\ F \R @ \" A]6 V\5 D #[ \[ 6 M + ^# z 6. . " ^2 ^C \ A]6 \ D &b SI ^C # & " ^ , / ] . " ? " * @ n L + 6 ^1 [ ? ] • 6 } $\ x ] % M % ^\ ^ \ 6 ] \ \ˆ m \ \" ^\2 ^F # ^e x ] 6 } % M A \"^\ \ˆ' P & ! . " ^2 ^ m ] \ ^ 6] / } * / ! " ' 30 4 ] % c B 6 ] % M \? \ \ " . " % M DR B ] r ! b& De \ \ \ /e2 + $ 0[ ‚' A ( %$ x v' } 6 ' 02? 6 c B ^e x . } @ 6 ' }* ! " 5` ] ! ] % ‚' \J ^ A 5^2 ] 6 H +\ \} @ ] \" . ^ F '/ ? \5 \ / \* \, J . ] c } @ ] " 02? 6 ^X 5 ] % D 5 [0 -8 Ar ch ive of 1- Bhatti, M. A. (1995). “System analysis techniques in water resource management.” Proc., WRM ’95, Isfahan University of Technology. 2- Simonovic, P. S., and Ahmad, S. (2002). “System dynamics modeling of reservoir operation for flood management.” J. Computing in Civil Engineering, 14(3), 190-198. 3- Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics, McGraw-Hill, Book Co., Boston. 4- Passel, D. H., Tidwell, C. V., Conrar, S. H., and Thomas, R. P. (2003). Cooperative water resources modeling in the middle Rio Grande River, Sand Report, United States Department of Energy. 5- Palmer, R. N. , Keyes, A. M., and Fisher, S. (1993). Empowering stakeholders through simulation in water resources planning in water management in the 90s, In: A Time for Innovation, ASCE, New York. 6- Fletcher, E. (1998). “The use of system dynamics as a decision water support tool for the management of scarce resources.” First International Conference on New Information Technology for Decision Making in Civil Engineering, Montreal, Canada. 7- Simonovic, S. P., Fahmy, H., and Elshoragy, A. (1997). “The use of object oriented modeling for water resources planning in Egypt.” J. Water Resources Management, 11, 242-261. AE / 13 f 4D 3.(p).B 3 f Q3 !" -#M3 -8 .A"3 AN .11-7 G = $ -"[3 , BC P K .9-1 A"3 ""qK A"3 @ # AN AN ;" 4D 3 e $= .(1371) . " BC 4D 3 e $= .(1371) . " BC Q3 Q3 -#M3 -9 -#M3 -10 80 www.SID.ir