The Istanbul Canal or New
Bosphorus
Arestakes Simavoryan
Published online: June 18, 2020
Publisher: Orbeli Center1
Currently, 24 projects related to infrastructure (bridges, highways, airports, railway
communication networks, ports, tunnels), energy and military industry are in various stages
of implementation in Turkey. 8 of these are mega-projects worth $5 to $28 bil. The other
projects in total are estimated to cost more than $220 bil. 2 The largest and most expensive
in the history of the Republic of Turkey, Southeastern Anatolia Project of Social-Economic
Significance valued $28 bil., leads the list of mega-projects. Until now, large investments
have been made in education, health, transport and energy fields. Other major projects
include the Sinop and Akkuyu Power Plants3, with $22 bil. and $20 bil. respectively.
Among these projects is Erdogan’s “craziest projects” (as is often referred to by the Turkish
press), the construction of the Istanbul Canal connecting the Mediterranean Sea to Black
Sea and is estimated at $15-20 bil.
The Canal and Adjacent Infrastructures
President Erdogan first spoke about the construction of the canal in 2011, at a conference in
Istanbul dedicated to the various infrastructures projects of Turkey. According to Erdogan,
the canal is an important strategic project, which will contribute to the unprecedented
development of the economy by changing the capital’s direction4. It was announced that the
canal will be finished in 2023, on the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey5.
Initially the Istanbul Canal was planned to be constructed on the outskirts of Silivri.
However, public criticism about the project (especially by environmentalists), made the
Government change the initial idea of the sea route. In February 2016, the new route had to
pass more towards the West than the originally selected route6.
Former Minister of Transport and Infrastructure Ahmet Arslan announced in 2018,
1
Source: https://orbeli.am/en/post/476/2020-06-18/The+Istanbul+Canal+or+New+Bosphorus.
Türkiye’nin mega projeleri: Sıfırdan rekora. http://optamin.com/turkiyenin-mega-projeleri.
Arestakes Simavoryan. Թուրքիայի Աքքույու ատոմակայանի նախագիծը. 2019. ⟨hal-03320321⟩
4
İşte Erdoğan’ın çılgın projesi, (27.04.2011), https://www.milliyet.com.tr/siyaset/iste-erdoganin- cilgin-projesi1382967
5
It’s known from the history, that in 1550, Ottoman Kanuni Sultan Suleyman I wanted to dig a canal parallel to
the Bosphorus. Famous architects Mimar Sinan and Nicolas François worked on that project. However, the
resources required for the project weren’t sufficient, Kanal İstanbul nedir? Güzegahı açıklanan Kanal İstanbul
Projesi, (15.01.2018), https://www.milliyet.com.tr/gundem/kanal-istanbul-nedir-guzegahi-aciklanan-kanalistanbul-projesi-2591192
6
Turkey plans new major waterway to bypass Bosporus, (27.04.2011),
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sdut-turkey-plans-new-major-waterway-to-bypass-bosporus-2011apr27story.html.
2
3
1
that the canal will have 45 km. length with a width of 400-600m. and a depth of 25m.7.
However, completely different sizes are given on the website of the Istanbul Canal
launched by the Public Relations Department of the Office of the President of Turkey in
2020. In particular, the length and depth of the canal remain the same, but the width has a
reduced amount from 400m. to 275m. However, according to the website, the size of the
canal may change, given regional developments that will benefit Turkey’s geopolitical and
strategic priorities8.
The canal will be built in parallel to the Bosphorus and in fact will be an alternative:
it will pass through Kucukcekmece-Sazlidere-Durusu districts. 160 different types of cargo
ships (including oil tankers), that is about 58,400 ships a year will pass through this
waterway daily. As a comparison, while only 25 000 ships are actually allowed to pass
through the Bosphorus, 41,112 cargo ships (54,880 in 2006)9 passed through the Bosphorus
Strait (Istanbul Strait in Turkish) in 2019.
According to some estimates, the number of ships passing through the Bosphorus
İstanbul’un 19 ilçesi adalı olacak! 6 köprü ile birbirine bağlanacak!, (24.01.2018),
https://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/istanbulun-19-ilcesi-adali-olacak-6-kopru-ile-birbirine-baglanacak40719953
8
Kanal İstanbul Projesinin Kesit ve Boyutları. https://www.kanalistanbul.gov.tr/tr/hersey/kanal-istanbulprojesinin-kesit-ve-boyutlari
9
In recent years, shipping through this strait decreased by 25%, but the weight of cargo has increased. Yıllara
Göre Karşılaştırma Tablosu, https://atlantis.udhb.gov.tr/istatistik/gemi_gecis.aspx
7
2
will exceed 80,000 per year by 2070, creating an additional workload 10. The number of
cargo passing through the Bosphorus will most likely be reduced. Thus the main and
primary goals of the construction of the canal is to reduce the flow of ships passing through
the Bosphorus. However, by increasing ships through the route of the Bosphorus, it’s
possible that the “Istanbul” canal will become a congested new sea route.
The next goal is to minimize environmental threats. Due to being overloaded, 9
major disasters occurred in the Bosphorus Strait between 1960-2019. They were
accompanied by human losses and with financial losses amounting to about $1.3 bil. 11.
According to the Minister of Transport and Infrastructure C. Turhan, in the first stage, will
have a net income of $1 bil. from cargo ships passing the canal and $5 bil. in 2050 12.
However, the project doesn’t end with the construction of the canal alone. Residential
complexes will be built on an area of 38 thous. hectares (26,500 hectares based on the other
data) along the two banks of the artificial canal. Thanks to modern transport infrastructure,
including subway and high-speed trains, the newly formed city with 500 thous. population
will be connected to other regions13.
The population of the city stretching on both sides of the canal will be moved
especially from the areas where the residential buildings have been assessed as
dangerous14. Instead of the 10 previously planned bridges, which will provide land
connection over the canal, it is now planned to build 6 bridges, 5 for cars and 1 for highspeed trains. There will also be 3 tunnels, 2 for subway and 1 for underwater railway15.
Furthermore, it’s envisaged to build cultural, educational, healthcare and business
centers, modern architectural style skyscrapers and hotel complexes. It’s also planned to
build eco- tourism, medical-resort tourism, technology development, local and international
logistic zones and ports. In particular, the newly created infrastructure will include a coastal
recreational area, a naval (industrial) port for cargo ships and a logistic center. Moreover, in
terms of location, the latter two are bordering the New or Third Istanbul International
Airport, which started to operate since October 2018. The report on the construction of the
Istanbul Canal notes that yacht and container ports will be built on the shores of Lake
Kucukcekmece, part of the Marmara Sea 16.
In 2021, at the entrance of the Bosphorus Strait, by the Sea of Marmara in Yenikap,
a new cruise port will be put into operation, which will be integrated into the Istanbul Canal
and the new airport17. Except for the canal ($15-20 bil.) and the new airport (€10.5 bil.), the
other above mentioned infrastructure will require additional investment, for the
Barış Şimşek, Boğaz’dan 13 kat daha güvenli, (03.02.2020).
https://www.sabah.com.tr/galeri/ekonomi/bogazdan-13-kat-daha-guvenli
11
İnfografikler, https://www.kanalistanbul.gov.tr/tr/infografik
12
Kanal İstanbul Projesi’ni 2026 gibi tamamlamış olacağız, (13.01.2020),
https://www.milliyet.com.tr/gundem/kanal-istanbul-nedir-guzegahi-aciklanan-kanal-istanbul-projesi-2591192
13
Nüfus ve Yeni Yerleşim Alanı, https://www.kanalistanbul.gov.tr/tr/hersey/nufus-ve-yeni-yerlesim-alani.
14
Özetle Kanal İstanbul Projesi, (02.01.2020), https://www.milliyet.com.tr/gundem/ozetle-kanal-istanbulprojesi-kanal-istanbul-ihalesi-kanal-istanbul-maliyeti-ve-kanal-istanbul-ced-raporu-hakkinda-bilinmesigerekenler-6114038
15
Kanal İstanbul raporu, “193 sayfa” ile özetlenerek İBB meclisine sunuldu, (15.03.2020),
https://www.istanbultakipte.com/haberler/cevre/kanal-istanbul-raporu-193-sayfa-ile-ozetlenerek-ibb-meclisinesunuldu.html
16
Kanal Istanbul projesi, çevresel etki değerlendirmesi raporu, Aralik, 2019, Bölüm 3-8
17
Канал Стамбул - будущий туристический центр Турции, http://fellowtraveler.ru/kanal-stambul-budushhijturisticheskij-centr
10
3
construction of which the private and public sectors will be involved. An international
consortium of investors will be created, which is often done for large projects. Foreign
direct investment flow is also expected, especially from Arab countries18.
The World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the
Islamic Development Bank and the Japan International Cooperation Agency, which
currently finance many projects aimed at creating and developing various infrastructures in
Istanbul, will probably be interested. Currently the South Korean SK Engineering and
Construction Company expressed a wish to participate in the construction of the Istanbul
canal. This company has implemented a number of projects in Turkey, such as the Eurasia
Underwater Tunnel, which connects the European and Asian shores of Istanbul, the third
bridges of Yavuz Sultan Selim and the Bosphorus, structures of energy significance, such
as the suspension bridge Çanakkale 1915, the construction of which is currently ongoing19.
One of the key issues of the construction of the canal is how Turkey is ready to implement
such an ambitious project. According to analysts, Turkey neither has the experience in
conducting large-scale canal work, nor has a corresponding professional staff.
This was also taken into account by the Turkish Government, which began
negotiations with the Panamanian authorities. According to the agreement signed between
Ministries of Panama's navigation and Turkish Transport in 2016, the parties undertook a
platform for cooperation to exchange administrative and technical knowledge and work
experience, which are closely related to the construction and management of canals.
According to the agreement, the construction of the Istanbul Canal will be supported by
professional groups that have expanded the Panama Canal20.
Sinan Ulgen, Choppy Waters For Turkey’s Latest Megaproject, (21.01.2020),
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-21/canal-istanbul-choppy-waters-for-erdogan-s-latestmegaproject.
19
South Korean SK plans to partake in Kanal Istanbul, (10.05.2018),
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/2018/05/10/south-korean-sk-plans-to-partake-in-kanal-istanbul
20
Emin Özgönül, Kanal İstanbul’a Panama modeli, (07.05.2017),
https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2017/ekonomi/kanal-istanbula-panama-modeli-1835664/
18
4
Ecological Issues
There are environmental and seismic concerns in the discussions on the construction of the
canal as well. According to experts, the canal can completely change the ecosystem of the
region, endangering the life support systems of Istanbul. In particular, it will affect the
quality and environment of agricultural lands, increase the risk of earthquakes21.
Other experts believe it will contribute to the extinction of rare plant species.
Furthermore, the mixing of the two seas will change the chemical composition, which can
also lead to the extinction of marine animals22. According to some forecasts, coastal areas
around the Sea of Marmara will be at the risk of flooding23. It was decided to partially close
the Sazlidere reservoir during the implementation of the project, which will later be part of
the Istanbul Canal. This is also a serious problem, as the reservoir is the main source of
fresh water in the European part of Istanbul24.
Combining different environmental assessments and forecasts, it should be noted that
according to environmentalists, it will be a problem not only for Turkey, but for all
neighboring countries, as the construction of the canal can have a negative impact on the
ecosystem of the whole region. On March 8, 2020, Erdogan announced again that all
necessary geological and hydrological research had been carried out and the danger of
earthquakes was taken into account during the design of the canal. More than 200
specialists and international experts from 11 Turkish universities and 34 scientific branches
took part in them25.
The direction of construction of the Istanbul Canal
Cemal Gökçe, İstanbul Kanal Projesi Neden Yapılmamalıdır? Türkiye Mühendislik Haberleri, Sayı: 490
61/2016-2, s. 60-61.
22
Ertuğrul Günay, Canal Istanbul project casts doubts on Montreux Convention, (23.12.2019),
https://ahvalnews.com/montreux-convention/canal-istanbul-project-casts-doubts-montreux-convention.
Dicle
Baştürk Özarslan, Uluslararası politika açısından Kanal İstanbul: 310 milyon insan için bir risk, (14.10.2018),
https://t24.com.tr/haber/uluslararasi-politika-acisindan-kanal-istanbul-310-milyon-insan-icin-bir-risk,722851.
23
Sena Yaşar, Jeoloji mühendislerinden uyarı: ‘Marmara’da sahil kalmaz’, (23.01.2020),
https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/jeoloji-muhendislerinden-uyari-marmarada-sahil-kalmaz-1715791.
24
Kanal İstanbul ÇED raporu onaylandı! Sazlıdere Barajı kapatılıyor, (17.01.2020),
https://www.kayabasimahallesi.com/haber/2950/kanal-istanbul-ced-raporu-onaylandi-sazlidere-barajikapatiliyor.html.
25
Эрдоган анонсировал тендер на проект канала «Стамбул» в обход Босфора, (08.03.2020),
https://ria.ru/20200308/1568328983.html.
21
5
The Status of the Canal
The voyage through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles is regulated by the Montreux
Convention on the Status of the Straits (signed in 1936), which is controlled by Turkey.
The convention allows the free movement of commercial vessels of all countries through
the straits both in peacetime and during the war. In case of war Turkey may allow or
prohibit the navigation of warships through the straits26.
As you know, navigation on the Bosphorus-Dardanelles is regulated by the Montreux
Convention on the Status of the Straits (signed in 1936), which is controlled by Turkey.
The Convention allows the free movement of merchant ships of all countries through these
straits, both in peace and in time of war. In case of war or threat, Turkey can allow or
prohibit the movement of warships of any country through the straits 27.
According to retired Deputy Admiral T. Erturk, the US is more dissatisfied with the
Montreux Convention: “Black Sea is the only one on the planet, where American aircraft
carriers cannot enter. Of course, they want to change the balance of power. Thus, for
maintaining stability, we must adhere to the Montreux Convention”28.
Experts believe that Washington has been trying to bypass the convention for years,
and the Istanbul Canal is a good opportunity for the United States to de facto establish itself
in the Black Sea. On this occasion, Mehmet Ali Guler, a columnist for the opposition
Cumhuriyet newspaper, reminded NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg “You are not
in the Black Sea at all. The Black Sea has practically turned into a Russian Sea” Erdogan’s
call (2016), is a message to NATO and the United States to strengthen in the Black Sea.
According to him the Istanbul Canal project initiated by the Justice and Development Party,
will allow the USA to easily achieve this goal, which will be a “state suicide” for Turkey29.
Some experts believe that Turkey tries to extend the Montreux Convention to the
Istanbul Canal or to revise the agreement in its favor30. However, in 2011, Erdogan stated
that the canal doesn’t contradict the Montreux Convention, but it doesn’t have anything to
do with it, asthe control of the canal is exclusively Turkey’s sovereign right31.
Turkey will regulate the passage of ships in times of war and peace through the
Istanbul Canal by national law, which was quoted by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut
Cavusoglu32. According to some researchers, the convention will not apply to the new
Габриелян Айк, Турция: Стамбульский канал и Конвенция Монтрё, (28.02.2017),
http://www.iimes.ru/?p=32948. Hayk Gabrielyan, On the Construction of the Istanbul Canal in Turkey,
(26.03.2018), http://noravank.am/arm/articles/detail.php?ELEMENT_ID=16532., Ольга Будник, Канал
«Стамбул»: невозможно возможный проект, (20.12.2019), https://www.ukrinform.ru/rubrictechnology/2842117-kanal-stambul-nevozmozno-vozmoznyj-proekt.html., Умбрасас А.Р, Современное
состояние и перспективы конвенции Монтрё 1936 г. о статусе проливов, Международный журнал
прикладных наук и технологий «Integral» №3, 2019, с. 511-517.
27
Конвенция Монтрё о статусе проливов. Досье, https://tass.ru/info/1418303.
28
Hilmi Hacaloğlu, Kanal İstanbul Montrö Sözleşmesi’ni Tehdit Ediyor mu? (10 .01. 2020),
https://www.amerikaninsesi.com/a/kanal-istanbul-montro-sozlesmesini-tehdit-ediyor-mu/5240735.html.
29
Mehmet Ali Güller, Kanal İstanbul: NATO’ya Karadeniz yolu, (16.12.2019),
http://cumhuriyet.com.tr/koseyazisi/1708425/kanal-istanbul-natoya-karadeniz-yolu.html.
30
Jennifer Hattam, Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan’s ‘Crazy Project’ for Istanbul: Building a Second Strait,
(30.04.2011), https://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/turkish-prime-minister-erdoayans-crazyproject-for-istanbul-building-a-second-strait.html.
31
Kanal Istanbul'dan 5 milyar dolar gelir beklentisi!, (18.05.2011), https://emlakkulisi.com/kanalistanbuldan-5milyar-dolar-gelir-beklentisi/73548.
32
Nazlı Yüzbaşıoğlu, Dışişleri Bakanı Çavuşoğlu: Emekli büyükelçilerin Kanal İstanbul açıklaması siyasi bir
26
6
canal, whereas Turkey will have new political and economic leverages33. Regardless of the
official statements and comments, the legal status of the Istanbul Canal is still uncertain.
The next important issue is that according to the terms of the Montreux Convention
of 1936, with some exceptions, is free of movement for commercial vessels when passing
through the Straits of Bosphorus and Dardanelles34. While after the project of operation
Istanbul Canal, commercial ships will have to pay.
It’s hard to imagine, how Turkey would persuade ships to pass through Istanbul’s
paid canal, when there is the Montreux Convention that allows to travel through the
Bosphorus Strait for free. Moreover, appropriate analysis and political predictions and
diplomatic efforts will be made to ensure the strait is available free of use. Melis Alphan,
the journalist of Hurriyet newspaper noted that this this crazy project does not promise
anything good. According to the author, after billions of investments, if Russia, for
example, refuses to use the toll sea route, what steps should Turkey take in that direction35?
But the new canal will promise an increase in Turkey’s role in controlling the flow of ships.
So, professional discussions on the canal continue.
As we see, this is quite a difficult and ambitious project, which in addition to the
canal, also envisages the creation of recreational resources, expensive transport, business
and other infrastructure. In 2011, Erdogan announced that the canal will be ready in
2023. Meanwhile, the new term of the project, 2025-2026 is officially being discussed
today, unless canal drilling begins in 202036.
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34
Charging is made only for the use of sanitary, rescue and other services, and for the double passage of ships
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